LSU had a good first 22 minutes and a good fourth quarter against Louisiana Tech, but it’s concerning to give up 21 consecutive points to two opponents in a row.
Apart from the touchdown drive at the end of the first half against Southeastern (SLU), LSU has not played well around halftime and the third quarter in any of its first four games.
The Tigers were way out in front of U. Miami and SLU; but in the case of U. Miami, ending a game with no touchdowns in your last 8 drives (not counting the kneel-down at the end) isn’t desirable in my opinion no matter what the score is. LSU may have been shut out in the second half against SLU if they had not recovered a fumble at the SLU 18 late in the fourth quarter.
The troubles started against Auburn after about a quarter and a half instead of two quarters, and that’s the same thing that happened against the Bulldogs on Saturday. We were up 24 against the Bulldogs instead of the 10-point lead at Auburn, but the play from that point until the fourth quarter was similar with identical results (outscored 21-0 in both instances). So there is a wide range of teams that could blow out LSU if the Tigers were to play like that for a full game. To look on the bright side, LSU could probably beat anyone if they eliminate that mid-game lag.
If the Tigers don’t play better, they may well lose the next game against Ole Miss. See here for more about that rivalry.
That said, I don’t see anyone other than LSU I want to put #4. Clemson’s game against Texas A&M and Oklahoma’s game against Army were more concerning, and no one has the pair of top-10 wins the Tigers have.
I thought about dropping Ohio St. due to not having played anyone except a team that just got beaten soundly by Texas, but I may have gotten some flak if the first three teams were all in the SEC. The Buckeyes’ strength of schedule should improve significantly in the next two weeks though, so I’ll leave them where they are for now.
I know I ranked Army #25 last week, but that’s not really a good excuse for Oklahoma to go into overtime against the Knights/Cadets at home. After an uninspired win at Iowa St. the week before, I’m not really feeling the Sooners right now. I’m phasing out the feeling element of this as I always do in late September, but going solely by the numbers wouldn’t even put OU in the top 10. I haven’t been impressed with other Big XII teams either, but the toughest games may be away from home: TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Texas (in Dallas). The remaining home schedule is Baylor, Kansas St., Oklahoma St., and Kansas.
Auburn didn’t do anything wrong; but even assuming they win next week, 3 of their four wins will be Alabama St. (who has lost by at least 34 to every Division I opponent), Arkansas (who probably still won’t have any FBS wins), and Southern Mississippi (whose only FBS win is over Rice). It’s just time to start factoring in strength of schedule more. Auburn has Georgia and Alabama later of course, but they won’t get credit until they play one of them.
Central Florida, the (AU) Tigers’ opponents in the Peach Bowl, and Michigan were even further from a ranking in my formula, so they dropped more.
Mississippi St. lost to a team I already had ranked, so I thought a 10-spot drop was enough even though the Bulldogs are also not on my computer list.
After that, I knew which teams I wanted to rank (they were all selected from the top 25 of my computer), but when I couldn’t decide the order, I just ranked them by how good the teams who beat them are. For instance, Texas Tech and Maryland (which beat Texas before the Longhorns’ big wins of the past two weeks) had lost to unranked teams. Ole Miss (which beat Texas Tech) has only lost to Alabama, and Temple (which beat Maryland) lost two games, one of which was to Villanova—and it wasn’t in basketball—so that was pretty easy to sort out. I think Oklahoma St. lost to a better team than Texas Tech did, but I couldn’t put the Cowboys ahead of a team who just beat them 41-17 in Stillwater.
The five teams that are in the computer top 25 but not in this one are (in order): Buffalo (beat Temple; see above for discussion about Maryland and Texas), Indiana (lost to Michigan St. but is the only team to beat Virginia), Michigan St. (beat Indiana, although the Spartans lost to Arizona St.), San Diego St. (beat Arizona St., only loss is to Stanford), and North Carolina St. (nothing too special, but they are the only team to have beaten James Madison or Marshall; they play Virginia next).
San Diego St. has a bye week, so they will be staying out; but any of the others could make it in by winning. I know it sounds silly, but this is especially true of Buffalo, which plays Army. Who knew New York could field decent college football teams, not to mention (possibly) three of them? The third is undefeated Syracuse, who fell just a few spots outside of the top 25 and will attempt to beat Clemson for the second year in a row on Saturday.
rank/team/prev.
1 Alabama 1
2 Georgia 2
3 Ohio St. 3
4 LSU 5
5 Stanford 6
6 Oklahoma 4
7 Clemson 7
8 Notre Dame 12
9 Penn St. 11
10 Auburn 9
11 Duke 15
12 Kentucky 24
13 UC-Berkeley 18
14 BYU 19
15 Wisconsin 20
16 UCF 13
17 Michigan 14
18 Miss. St. 8
19 S Carolina —
20 U. Miami —
21 Washington —
22 Texas —
23 Texas Tech —
24 Okie St. 10
25 Maryland —
Out of Top 25:
(16) Minnesota, (17) Iowa, (21) Boise St., (22) TCU, (23) Indiana, (25) Army
Auburn, Boise St., College Football, Ed Orgeron, Florida, Florida St., Georgia, Georgia Southern, Houston, Louisiana Tech, Louisville, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio St., Oklahoma, SEC, South Carolina, Stanford, Texas, top 25
Week 1 Top 25 and LSU/Texas Series and Preview
In College Football, General LSU, History, Preview, Rankings, Rankings Commentary, Rivalry on September 3, 2019 at 6:01 PMTOP 25
rank/team/last
Out of top 25: (22) Florida St., (25) South Carolina
Top 25 Comments
I know it’s late for many of you, so I only used one picture. I usually try to avoid walls of text, but it couldn’t be helped.
I covered most of what I had to say about the games over the weekend on Sunday.
I thought Michigan struggled too much to stay ahead of Ohio St., who dominated.
I think Auburn barely beat a much better team than Florida barely beat, so I switched the two.
I dropped Oregon close to the bottom just because they’re 0-1, but they can bounce back pretty quickly.
Boise St. was a late cut from my list of potentials, so it was easy to put them in.
As for the other new team, I’m not in love with Stanford being that they only scored 17 points and will probably rely on the backup quarterback in the next game, but sometimes that helps teams.
Florida St. and South Carolina deserved to fall out for obvious reasons. It may be a while before I consider South Carolina again, but Florida St. showed some good things.
If you need three overtimes to beat a FCS team like Iowa St. did (although it’s worth noting Northern Iowa has had a lot of success in recent history), that’s almost like a loss to a top-10 team. A win is a win for the most-part (giving credit for strength of schedule of course); but with only one game to consider, you have to look at how easily the win came.
Oklahoma and Notre Dame, who played since my last blog, took care of business.
Notre Dame probably let Louisville hang around too long, but the Irish don’t typically have an offense that leaves the opposition in the dust right away anyway
Oklahoma let Houston score a couple of touchdowns to get within two possessions late, but I don’t hold it against them. I’m still skeptical about how the Sooners will do against Power 5 competition though. It could be that the Big XII will make them look good even if they aren’t. Texas looked all right, but nobody looked great. Speaking of the Longhorns…
LSU @ Texas
All-time series: Texas leads, 9-8-1 (updated after the game)
The first game of the series was way back in 1896, LSU’s 11th official game as a program (and 10th intercollegiate game), but 10 of the 17 games in the series were clustered between 1935 and 1954, the last regular-season matchup (Texas won 20-6 in Austin).
The (January) 2003 Cotton Bowl (Texas 35, LSU 20) was the only matchup since 1963 (also the Cotton Bowl, which LSU won 13-0), so LSU fans shouldn’t despair too much about these facts. The more-recent Cotton Bowl was the highest-scoring game of the series, beating out the 35-14 Texas win in 1952. In the 2003 game, Texas entered at 10-2, and LSU entered at 8-4. LSU would win the BCS national championship in the following January though.
The third-largest point total and largest margin of victory is also owned by Texas, 34-0 in 1941. Other than the tie in 1936, the closest game was the 5-0 LSU win in San Antonio in 1902.
Texas leads the series in Austin, 7-2-1, the other LSU win coming in 1938. (updated after the game).
The Tigers lead 2-1 at “neutral” sites (two in Dallas, one in San Antonio) and 4-1 at home.
Added after the game: Both teams scored more in 2019 (45 to 38 final in favor of LSU) than either had in this series before. LSU more than doubled its previous high of 20 (in the loss in Jan. 2003 and in wins in 1938 and 1953).
After Saturday, the next game is scheduled for Tiger Stadium on September 12 of next season with no future plans thereafter; although LSU plans to return to Big XII country (if the Big XII is still a thing) in 2027 to face Oklahoma.
Preview
Speaking of the Longhorns, there was a debate on the College Football Nerds YouTube channel (formerly known as SEC Fans) about whether Texas will beat LSU.
They absolutely can… I’m not going to suggest for a moment it’s going to be as easy to stop Texas’s mobile quarterback as it was to stop the Georgia Southern quarterbacks. I’m not a big fan of the Texas defense even before the loss of all but two or three starters, but I’m reasonably sure LSU will go scoreless on more than one drive with the first-team offense in the game. I also don’t discount the degree of difficulty in playing in Austin. I don’t know if it’s the same as the best SEC stadiums, but we’ve had some of our best teams lose at home (like in the 2003 season) or lose at less-intimidating SEC places like Commonwealth Stadium (the sponsor isn’t paying me) in Lexington (like in the 2007 season).
.. But I don’t think they will. LSU has a clear advantage in returning starters; but even if they didn’t, I think last year’s LSU team would have beaten last year’s Texas team even in Austin. Oklahoma played terribly on defense and only lost by a field goal, and that was Texas’s best game. The Longhorns only won the Sugar because Georgia was going to be the team that blew the lead to Alabama in the SECCG whether they beat Texas or not. A month of relatively little motivation can make a big difference. LSU in their worst game wouldn’t have lost to Maryland like Texas did.
Anyway, in the video, I don’t know if the guy arguing for Texas was advancing weak arguments on purpose or he was just trying hard to sell the only arguments he could come up with; but they weren’t very persuasive. One was “we’ve heard it before that the offense is different.” There were changes when Cameron was fired, there were changes when Canada came in, and there were changes last year; but there weren’t wholesale changes like this. Neither Etling in 2015 and 2016 nor Burrow last year were ready for anything crazy anyway.
Shea Dixon had some good stats on differences from last year. In all of last season 14 players caught passes, four of them running backs. On Saturday, 14 players caught passes, 5 of them running backs. He also included a special teams stat: LSU had 52 yards in punt returns Saturday compared with 99 in all of last season.
Another one is “Texas doesn’t rebuilt, they reload.” Charlie Strong (who still recruited a lot of the players) would be surprised to know that. They’re not Alabama or Clemson all of a sudden because of one year with double-digit wins (which with 14 games isn’t what it used to be). LSU has done a bit of reloading over the years as well. It’s still an advantage to have more players back, especially from a successful year. Speaking of Alabama and Clemson, they both had successful years in 2017; but Clemson had a lot more players back in 2018. I think that helped the Tigers win the championship as easily as they did. Even if Texas “reloads” an exact replica of last season on defense (though I’m not sure Louisiana Tech gets 340 passing yards last year), that’s probably a good sign for the LSU offense. To be fair, the La. Tech scoring was all in the fourth quarter, but they had several earlier opportunities. In short, I’m not convinced.
Another point I’m not buying is that Texas can handle the SEC based on the Georgia game. If LSU played Georgia and that was LSU’s only SEC game last year, that wouldn’t mean LSU would beat every SEC team this year with. LSU played a Georgia team that still had a potential national championship run in front of it too. Also, bowl games are a lot different. You don’t get the same players. LSU had a patchwork team in the bowl game last season and looked pretty good, which is part of the reason I rank them so highly now; but I don’t know how different the Texas-Georgia game would have been if it had been a playoff game.
There was another point that might have been good had Texas had its defense back from last year, and that was that LSU’s new offense is more similar to what Big XII teams run. Being used to scrimmaging against the Texas offense isn’t the same thing as a season of Big XII opponents. When you’re up 42-3 at the half and take most of your starters out shortly thereafter, you’re not going to show everything anyway. So we can’t be sure this would be so easy for an experienced Big XII defense anyway. Also, let’s not forget even in the best team game for the Longhorns they allowed 45 points. Do I think LSU will score 45? No. Do I think they’ll allow 48 like Oklahoma did? That’s not even a serious question in my mind.
My final thoughts: I don’t want to discount the fact that Texas has a chance to win at home. It just seems less likely. Maybe 60-40 odds in LSU’s favor. If you point a gun to my head and make me bet, I’d take Texas and the points (5.5 according to ESPN), but it’s a close call. If someone wins the turnover battle 4-0 (as was the case when LSU beat Georgia last year), that team could win by 20+ though. I don’t think feel like I know enough about either team under pressure to even venture a guess as to over/under.
Last topic, speaking of turnovers, both teams were +2 in turnovers in the first game, but stats from last year indicate LSU might do better. LSU was tied for 7th in turnover margin last year (with an advantage of 0.8 per game). Georgia Southern’s turnover margin was more than twice as much though (1.7, 1st), so that makes the first game more impressive for the Tigers. Texas was close behind LSU last year (0.6, tied for 18th), but Louisiana Tech was barely positive (0.2, tied for 43rd).