Intro
Being that it’s a bye week, I don’t have anything to say about the prior LSU game other than what I said to accompany the previous top 25 blog. I won’t do a detailed LSU/Alabama preview like I did with Ole Miss, but I have a few general thoughts. I don’t usually post blogs this late, but I thought with it being Halloween and there being an NFL game with a bunch of former LSU players in it, people would be up.
This is the best preview I’ve heard so far. You can skip the first few minutes and the last minute or so.
I don’t really believe in astrology, but I guess it’s sort of appropriate subject matter today. I wanted to note for any who find it interesting that since the last time either of these teams played a game, both Brian Kelly and Nick Saban have had birthdays (Saban’s is today), so they’re both Scorpios like I am (although I was almost a Sagittarius, and Kelly was almost a Libra… maybe that’s what stopped me from being a multimillionaire with a job in sports).
Their respective ages (Saban Is 9 years and 360 days older, for what it’s worth) are seen by many as a detriment, especially in this era of 30-something offensive coaches. Even if I were impartial though, I would look forward to this game because I think you have two coaches with some patience and wisdom (they’re not going to panic if they’re down a couple of scores or try to do anything weird to put the game away if they’re up) but also coaches with high expectations and attention to detail who will let players know promptly if they mess up. Some people might think it’s mean or regressive, but I relate better to coaches who are willing to vent a bit than I do to the easygoing “player’s coaches” or the ones who just robotically move on to the next play. I like to see a more old-school combination of professionalism and emotional investment.
Early Thoughts About Saturday
I see a range of outcomes, sort of like I did with Tennessee. LSU winning easily is unlikely for myriad reasons, but anything from a close game to an Alabama blowout seems realistic. There might be a few good plays on defense that help, but for the most-part I think the LSU defense is going to be beaten more often than not, along the lines of Alabama/Tennessee this year, LSU/Alabama in 2019, and the Alabama/Clemson national championship games. I don’t think LSU allows 52 unless Alabama has a very high number of possessions and/or very good field position (due to turnovers, three-and-outs, bad special teams, etc.), but high 30s may be unavoidable.
The Tigers have had sustained drives in recent weeks, sometimes multiple drives in a row; but I think it will be more difficult to do that against Alabama than it was against Ole Miss and Florida. I also don’t think LSU can afford its characteristically slow starts because I don’t think the Alabama offense will just sort of hit a wall like Mississippi St.’s and Ole Miss’s did while the Tigers can take the lead and pull away over multiple possessions. You can’t just diagnose their schemes and watch Bryce Young become ineffective like you could for some other quarterbacks. Alabama might have a slow 10 minutes of game play at one or two points, but the offense never really shuts down.
I didn’t save the link or a time stamp or anything, but I did hear some commentary from the LSU media that annoyed me. There is a show I normally like called Hunt and Hill, where former LSU running back Jeremy Hill talked about how when he played the Miles coaching staff would bring up Alabama a month ahead of time. Hunt Palmer (the co-host if you couldn’t guess) defended the former coaching staff for adding hype to the Bama game. He said it wasn’t possible to pretend it wasn’t a big game.
That’s a false dilemma. Whatever you tell them or whatever routine you have isn’t going to stop them from knowing that they have to raise their level of play more against Alabama than they did against New Mexico, for instance; but there is a danger of increased insecurity and trying too hard.
You don’t have to lie in order to concentrate on one game at a time and not act like a given game is life and death. You can’t tell a team that their whole lives rest on a single game for a month and then expect them to lose that game and be ready to play the next. Even if they win, the next week can be difficult to get up for.
I think Nick Saban exaggerates a little when he calls these greater narratives that the media hypes up “rat poison,” but the point is you do all you can to avoid it in order to minimize and counteract its impact to the extent possible. A team is much more confident if you instill a sense of routine.
Saban made a less dramatic point this week when he talked about an individual player, former LSU defensive back Eli Ricks: “I think it’s important that he just, y’know, goes into this game and bes (sic) himself and doesn’t think he has to do something fantastic.” Obviously if he follows his assignments and also does something fantastic (that’s not unduly risky), Saban isn’t going to complain; but the point is the first priority is to concentrate on adhering to the system in place and the plays that are called. If there is a little bit of extra energy you can channel into such tasks, great. Regardless of this game potentially deciding the SEC West, the game means something personal to Ricks; but the same applies to players who might be tempted to take chances or depart from things they normally do well and consistently because it’s a big game.
Historical Notes and Observations
I don’t think this game is like some of the Alabama/LSU games 8-12 years ago where LSU loses its primary goals and lacks enthusiasm afterward, but I’m glad we have a coaching staff that isn’t likely to lose its focus and professionalism for a given opponent. Other than his statement that it’s a privilege to play important games like this rather than a reason to be nervous or insecure, there wasn’t a single sound bite to focus on, but Kelly made similar general points during his press conference.
Transfer Portal
I think there are a couple of things about the current transfer portal era that help too.
First is that I think Alabama has been weakened by the addition of players who weren’t originally recruited to go there and either continued bad habits from high school or picked up bad habits at their prior program. This is probably part of the reason we saw a much sloppier Alabama team against Tennessee than we’re used to. I also think LSU is much sloppier now than they were in the early years of Les Miles and than they will be in future years under Brian Kelly, but Alabama and LSU are much closer in that regard than they have been in prior years.
Also, despite the ability of Bryce Young to improvise, Alabama is usually much more robust on third down than they are this year. LSU was mediocre in some games this season, and they still do better on third downs than Alabama does. I’m not minimizing the difficulty I believe LSU will have in taking advantage of mistakes or failures of the Alabama offense, not am I minimizing Saban’s ability to clean up any sloppiness in a bye week.
The other benefit I can see from the teams being a higher percentage of transfer players is that LSU doesn’t have this complex about playing Bama instilled into them, and Alabama doesn’t have a feeling of superiority that no matter what they’ll find a way to win. I think it was overblown by some in the media, but I think we got a hint of this in the pregame against Tennessee. Saban even said the team was more reserved than normal. They weren’t chanting and didn’t seem as loose. You’d think that if you dominated a series like that you’d be more confident even if you are on the road, but I just don’t think there is the same continuity with prior seasons as there was for those great LSU/Alabama games in the past.
Obviously, in this case, the veteran players do remember LSU beating Alabama. Even though LSU was a much more disadvantaged team last year, they hung in there pretty well on the road, only losing by 6. The 2020 game against Alabama was horrendous for LSU, who didn’t have a good quarterback at the time and had a terrible defense; but if it didn’t affect things last year, I don’t think it affects things this year.
Lessons from 2012 and 2014
I’ve covered some of this in my past blogs about the LSU-Alabama series, but I don’t think I approached it in response to this specific argument before.
I don’t think this affects the current players who were in elementary school at the time (if any are reading, stop now), but I wanted to recap a couple of games where I thought the players and coaches let Alabama get in their heads too much. It would be nice to finally get one back at home.
(The last two LSU wins, in two fairly memorable years of 2011 and 2019, were in Tuscaloosa. Since Bear Bryant’s hiring in 1958, LSU has only beaten Alabama five times in Baton Rouge. Nick Saban won two of the five for LSU {in three tries} and lost only one of the five for Alabama {against six wins in Tiger Stadium as the Alabama head coach). The one loss by Saban was in 2010, the last year in which his team lost more than two games in a season.)
LSU did lose to Alabama in overtime in 2008, but I don’t think there was anything wrong with what the players or coaches did leading up to the game. LSU QB Jarrett Lee had a big problem with interceptions (particularly pick-sixes) that year, but it was a general problem and not specific to Alabama. Then, as I mentioned parenthetically, LSU did beat Alabama at home in 2010. I think both teams played normal games and the team that was a little better ended up winning. The better respective teams also won close games in 2007 and 2009 {some say LSU was the better team on the day in 2009, but Alabama did go undefeated and LSU did finish with four losses} in Tuscaloosa.
Looking back, it all changed in the 21-0 national championship game in January 2012, as many know; but many don’t realize that it didn’t have to be that way.
In the game the next November, the Tigers went down 14-3 after the first half. The halftime score was as bad as it was because of a failed fake punt and a missed field goal. I believe there was another trick play by LSU as well. There is a lot of psychology that goes into trick plays and field-goal kicking, and obviously the decision to call the fake punt might have betrayed some insecurity by the coaching staff. Even though 52 weeks before that LSU had beaten Alabama to take a 5-2 series lead since Miles took over, it showed the coaches were approaching the game as if Alabama was a vastly superior team that they were trying to get lucky and knock off. After the missed field goal that would have cut the lead to one point, the Tide took over and scored a touchdown right before half. If LSU had just taken what they were given, the Tigers might have had better field position, leading to a touchdown or at least a closer field goal attempt and possibly would have prevented Alabama from scoring a touchdown at the end of the half.
Despite having been outscored 35-3 by Alabama over six quarters and having another disappointing end to a half, LSU still didn’t act defeated. The defense would force four punts and a fumble to start the second half. After a three-and-out to start the half, the LSU offense drove deep in Alabama territory four consecutive times. So basically the game was even in the first half apart from the bitter and, and LSU had dominated the second half. LSU just didn’t have the points to show for it.
I mentioned the missed field goal in the first half. After the third offensive drive of the second half though, LSU was nonetheless ahead 17-14. I don’t know if it was more on the players or the coaches (I suspect the coaches), but it seemed like everything after that backfired.
After a 35-yard pass from Zach Mettenberger to Odell Beckham to set LSU up at the Alabama 33, it seemed like the coaches were content to play for a field goal. Normally a 6-point lead rather than a 3-point lead isn’t the best strategy at the end of a game, but there was still about 10 minutes left, so it made some sense if they had stuck with it. They called two runs and one short pass. But since this set up a 4th and 1, they then decided to gamble and go for it, even though it seemed like this move contradicted previous play calls and it should have been a red flag how much trouble the Tigers had running the ball on the two prior plays that set of downs. Of course, LSU was stuffed, and Alabama took over on downs.
The LSU defense responded with a three-and-out despite what had looked like a shift in momentum. The LSU offense also seemed undeterred. After some more runs and shorter passes (I don’t know why they didn’t take more chances against what seemed to be a tired secondary when they had Jarvis Landry and Beckham to throw to, but that was not uncommon for LSU offenses of that era), there was a 13-yard pass to Landry and a 22-yard pass to Beckham. All they had to do was keep the pressure on. But no, the coaches wanted to play for a field goal again. This was much less defensible now since Mettenberger had become more confident and now there were only about 2 ½ minutes to play. Unlike the last time, it was pretty cut-and-dried that Alabama would take over with a chance to take the lead in the final minute whether you made the field goal or not.
People focus on the screen pass for a touchdown on the ensuing Alabama drive, but the LSU defense should have never been put in that position. I also don’t think prevent was the best strategy in the plays leading up to that. If they had scored with 2 minutes left, that would have been better than having them score with 51 seconds left.
So I don’t think that feeling of inevitability of a loss against Alabama was really established until the second game of the 2012 calendar year.
2014 is a much simpler narrative. With the convincing loss in Tuscaloosa in 2013, it was now a three-game losing streak against Alabama. Still, the Tigers were able to play a close game, more along the lines of 2011 than 2012; but it was still a good contest.
After LSU had opened the second half with a field goal to tie the game at 10 (it was the opposite of 2012, when the Tigers punted on the first possession of the half and then played well offensively), there was nothing but punts by both teams until Alabama took over at their own 1 with 1:50 to play. On second down from the 5, the Tide fumbled, giving LSU a huge gift. Unlike in 2012, it seemingly didn’t matter whether they played for a field goal or not. All they had to do was make sure the clock ran and kick a field goal on fourth down if needed. Of course, it didn’t work out that way.
After a first-down run, there was some pushing and shoving on the line. The referee who made the call should have been fired on the spot since there was no reasonable way not to either call no foul or to call offsetting penalties, but you still don’t give them that opportunity. Fall down and play dead. If Alabama doesn’t stop the after-the-play shenanigans then, you’ll get a call from one of the refs. If they do, you get the last laugh anyway. Anyway, so the penalty stopped the clock. It also took a realistic possibility of a touchdown off the table, and LSU was only able to run the clock down to 50 seconds before kicking the go-ahead field goal. Then, instead of kicking it away, they tried to be cute and call a squib kick. That kick went out of bounds, setting up Alabama at the 35 with no time taken off the clock. Even if it had not gone out of bounds, a squib kick only takes a few seconds off; and I think it would have been better to give Alabama farther to go to get into field-goal range.
Like in 2012, the LSU defense had finally been battered just enough that they gave up points. This time it was only 3 points, but it didn’t matter in the end since Alabama would win in overtime.
I don’t fault the coaches for not doing this, but I actually thought LSU should have broken the unofficial rules and gone on offense first. This would have given the defense more of a break. I wasn’t surprised that after the Tide drove 55 yards in 50 seconds they were able to drive for a touchdown with unlimited time. I also wasn’t surprised that the LSU offense went four-and-out after being so ineffective since the first drive of the second half. Maybe once regulation ended it a tie, it was all over anyway.
January 2012 might have been when the mortal was turned into a vampire or the day the coffin was built, but I think that day was the first nail in the coffin of the Les Miles era. Too bad we had to deal with some kind of undead Dracula/Frankenstein abomination for nearly two more years.
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The Bayou Blogger 
ACC, Brigham Young, Clemson, College Football, Florida St., Georgia, Liberty, LSU, North Carolina, North Carolina St., Ohio St., Ole Miss, SEC, South Carolina, Syracuse, TCU, Tennessee, Troy, Tulane, USC, Wake Forest
Week 8 Reactions and Top 25
In College Football, General LSU, Post-game, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on October 28, 2022 at 2:28 PMThis was almost completely written over the weekend (and I updated the records on the Ole Miss blog), but it was just one of those weeks where everything took twice as long as it should have. I have a salaried position; so if things take longer, that just takes away my free time.
Ole Miss @ LSU and the Final Score
LSU and the top 25 finally aren’t completely separate topics, but I’ll address and elaborate upon that game first and most extensively. LSU had the best knockoff of a top team (I wanted to say upset, but it wasn’t one) in the win over Ole Miss. I had the Rebels 5th and LSU 19th, but the major polls had the Rebels 7th and LSU unranked. Las Vegas and I both picked LSU to win though. I heard that the amateur bettors (misled by polls and sports shows, I guess) picked Ole Miss in droves to keep the line close. Ole Miss may still make a New Years Six bowl though, because I don’t know who other than Alabama is likely to beat them. The Egg Bowl may be close, but Texas A&M and Arkansas look bad more than they look good these days.
I did pick a much closer game, but it could have been 28-10 at the half (rather than 20-17) without a great play by Jaray Jenkins to catch an underthrown touchdown pass through double coverage and without Ole Miss settling for two field goals. Ole Miss would have also scored in the final minutes of the third quarter without an interception by Joe Foucha in the end zone on a second-and-goal from the 9. Despite being much shorter range, that was even more of an underthrow than there was for the Jenkins touchdown (due in part to the pressure on the quarterback).
It was the opposite of the Tennessee game, where all the breaks before and after halftime went the other way and put the game out of reach for the Tigers.
I’ll explain further why I don’t think I was terribly wrong in my estimation of the Ole Miss offense or the LSU defense; but I did say that if the game got to a point where Ole Miss needed to rely on Jaxson Dart (more on him in a moment), they were probably in trouble. When LSU scored on the ensuing drive after the interception that kept it a 4-point game, I didn’t see a realistic way back for the Rebels.
LSU could have done the 4-down kneel to avoid the last touchdown late in the fourth quarter, and that would have put them only three points over the 35 I predicted; but I don’t think scoring on a run up the middle is running up the score. If you had told me LSU would have the ball for nearly a quarter more than Ole Miss did, I would have increased LSU’s score on that basis too.
On the other hand, if you had told me how many total yards the two teams would have, I might not have changed my score prediction. LSU did a much better job of making their yards lead to points. That hasn’t always been the case.
Regardless, if you followed the score I predicted, you won money on both the point spread (LSU -1.5) and the over/under (64), so I don’t feel bad that LSU won by about 20 more points than I thought they would.
Jaxson Dart
I do want to say that I didn’t mean my remarks in the preview about Dart to be insulting. I actually like him, and I’m glad he transferred from USC to a team I don’t mind cheering for most of the time. I just thought he and the offense as a whole had some limitations that LSU could exploit. I watched him play against BYU last year, and they nearly won that game even though it was toward the end of a terrible season for the Trojans. I still remember his positive attitude during and after that game. I also respect the way he hung in there Saturday despite all the hits. His interview with the media struck a good tone as both an opponent and as a teammate. He seems more mature than Lane Kiffin does, to be honest. Dart was also one of the scholar athletes of the game, so it’s OK if I’m correct that he’s not one of the best quarterbacks in college football. He’ll probably be fine if he doesn’t go pro.
Rating LSU, Ole Miss, and the ACC Atlantic
As in the polls, there was too much of a gap for LSU to surpass Ole Miss in the rankings regardless of the final score. Even though Florida St. has only lost to ranked teams (more on their division in a moment), their three losses are too much of a drag on LSU. Although LSU’s schedule otherwise has been better than Ole Miss’s, there is still the FCS win over Southern and the win over New Mexico, probably one of the five worst FBS teams.
I’m a little surprised only one voter in either poll voted for Clemson as #1. I know their wins haven’t been by large margins, but two different teams (Wake Forest and Syracuse) can credit their only loss to Clemson. North Carolina St. only has two losses, one to Clemson and one to a team (Syracuse) whose only loss is to Clemson. Florida St. has three losses: Clemson, Wake Forest, and North Carolina St. There are no ties, so all of these other teams had to account for wins against one another at some point; but no outside team has beaten any of the five. I think they’ll all be favored in the remaining games not against each other also.
I do think the winner of Tennessee and Georgia (if undefeated) will likely overcome Clemson at some point. Right now, I think Tennessee would win; but I believe in getting credit for the wins that have actually happened once they occur and not before. That’s why I wouldn’t have wanted Ole Miss higher than they were. Just because they would eventually have a mostly SEC schedule doesn’t mean they should have gotten special treatment when they had only played a few SEC teams, two of them in the bottom fourth of the conference.
Additional Top 25 Commentary
Ohio St. moved down and back up based on something I had entered incorrectly into the computer formula, so their increase isn’t apropos of anything. By the way, it’s also possible that the eventual winner of Ohio St. and Michigan could pass up Clemson.
Another possibility of Clemson being passed up without losing would be after the conference championship games. Right now, North Carolina (who lost to Notre Dame and barely beat Appalachian St.) leads the ACC Coastal by a game and a half over Duke and Georgia Tech.
Teams like Illinois and Utah didn’t do anything wrong, but you can get passed up when you don’t play.
Tulane, Liberty, and the aforementioned North Carolina join the top 25 for the first time this year. I don’t think they would beat now-unranked teams like Texas (who lost to Oklahoma St.) and Mississippi St. (although Liberty versus Mississippi St. would be an interesting game given the two head coaches); but none of the three has shied away from competition, and they only have one loss apiece. Newly arrived Troy has two losses, which is why they are the last of the new teams, but one of those losses was after giving up a Hail Mary touchdown to Appalachian St. (making them just barely worse than North Carolina through the lens of the common opponent anyway) and the other was to Ole Miss.
Kentucky only fell out due to a bye week, and Mississippi St. only fell out due to losing to Alabama, so either could be back shortly. Another SEC team, South Carolina, is getting close to consideration for a ranking. Other than the ones who just fell out, other teams in my top 35 are Kansas St., Coastal Carolina, Texas-San Antonio, Houston, and Cincinnati.
For the full list of 131, follow the link above to “Knights’ Ratings” or go here. I’ve now included conference ratings (simply based on average rating) below the team ratings.
Top 25