I don’t know what the rankings will be yet with all the upheaval, but I couldn’t help but be amused by some of the results over the weekend. It was a bad day to be a fan of a ranked team from Texas (I’ll mention the two big ones, but Houston and Baylor also lost), and it was a good day for Sun Belt teams to notch some historical road wins. (I only recently realized Marshall had joined the Sun Belt after previous stints in the MAC and CUSA.)
The grass was really looking greener to LSU fans who wanted Jimbo Fisher or Billy Napier, for instance. I think Notre Dame fans (even if they are genuine about having grown tired of Kelly) were insecure about their choice of Marcus Freeman, who had never been a head coach before; but their way of expressing it in most cases was to attack Brian Kelly any way they could and pretend to be overjoyed that he had been replaced.
Last week (last two sections in the link below), I wrote about reminding myself as an LSU fan not to take anything for granted. Wearing the jersey and helmet and playing in Tiger Stadium might all but guarantee you beat Southern, but it doesn’t guarantee you anything against an SEC schedule.
More on Nebraska
I also mentioned in a separate blog how unless you were Oklahoma, Nebraska was pretty much untouchable for most of the 1970s and 1980s. I think there is a lesson here for some of the LSU fans who are always unhappy with whomever the coach is.
I didn’t mention it because they didn’t play LSU after that, but the Huskers kept it going through the 90s (I found out they had the second-best record among FBS teams in the decade after Florida St.) and had some good teams in the early 2000s. After having two losing records (both on the recent end) from 1961 to 2014, the Huskers have only finished with a winning record once since then.
To get to their current situation, they just lost to Georgia Southern, who was playing in the Southern Conference of FCS 10 years ago. It wasn’t just one fluke loss either. The Huskers have now lost eight consecutive games against FBS opponents. The last such game that was a win was over Northwestern, 56-7. You would have thought that at least the Huskers could stay better than that team, but they lost to the Wildcats at a neutral site just a couple of weeks ago.
After I wrote the above, Nebraska decided to part ways with head coach Scott Frost. Mickey Joseph, who for whatever reason stayed loyal to Ed Orgeron and LSU from 2017 to 2021 as the wide receivers coach, will step in as the interim head coach. He was obviously not retained by Brian Kelly but was classy all the way. I wish him the absolute best of luck in that position. If he doesn’t end up being a head coach, I wouldn’t be surprised if he returned at some point.
Joseph is the sixth man to coach Nebraska (including interims) since Frank Solich was fired in 2003. Solich was the last coach to leave Nebraska after successfully avoiding a losing season for his tenure. Only two men (Bob Devaney and Tom Osborne) coached Nebraska over the 36 seasons before Solich was hired. There was another LSU connection as former Tigers defensive coordinator Bo Pelini was hired from Les Miles’s staff after the 2007 season. Let’s just say he experienced mixed reviews, but he has had far and away the best winning percentage and longest tenure since Solich left.
Another more indirect LSU connection: Solich employed Joe Burrow’s father Jimmy (whom he first hired as a graduate assistant at Nebraska) as defensive coordinator at Ohio from 2005 to 2018. Solich himself retired after the 2020 season.
Recent Comments by LSU and Notre Dame Fans
Speaking of Joe Burrow, 2018 and 2019 (which his father had retired to witness) had the best combined winning percentage (89.3) of any two back-to-back seasons in LSU history. Even though I think an average Power 5 head coach could have managed to go over .500 the next two seasons and Orgeron didn’t, it still looks bad that those great seasons only bought him two additional years. I don’t know who they think is coming to the rescue if they run Kelly out of town without a fair shot at building the program back up.
At least one of the notions they had got knocked down a peg this weekend when Jimbo and Texas A&M lost at home to Appalachian St., a program Les Miles beat easily (with probably his worst team) the year after they upset Michigan in 2007.
Freeman, we were told, had already begun to correct for Kelly’s various misdeeds in recruiting and game strategy even though he started 0-2. Well, Oklahoma St. (in the bowl last season) and Ohio St. (who beat the Irish in the opener) were certainly much better teams than Florida St. at least. That last sentence is true enough, but I’m not so sure you could say the same about Marshall.
The Jimbo crowd started going nuts last year when the Aggies knocked off Alabama (and LSU struggled in some early games) and then pretended the losses didn’t matter. I think I prefer the way things have been at LSU. When we beat Alabama, we’re going places that season. These are the wins over Alabama since Saban was hired and the season results:
- 2007, National Championship (12-2)
- 2010, won Cotton Bowl to finish 11-2
- 2011, National Runners-up (to Alabama, 13-1)
- 2019, National Championship (15-0)
Texas A&M did go 11-2 in 2012, also winning the Cotton Bowl, but didn’t even keep the Tide from winning the SEC West as LSU at least helped to do all four years above. Alabama finished fourth in the West in 2010, but they were still very much alive for a berth in the SEC title game (with wins over LSU and Auburn, to whom they would later lose by only a single point) when they visited Tiger Stadium that year.
Though I would take 8-4 before the bowl any kind of way this season, finishing 8-4 despite beating Alabama seems like a waste in your fourth year somewhere like A&M.
Kevin Sumlin, Jimbo’s predecessor, beat Alabama exactly once too. He had a slightly better record in his first 50 games than what Jimbo has after 50 games with the Aggies. This is despite the fact that Texas A&M has increased the head coach’s salary by about 50% since Sumlin left. Almost two years of additional salary was paid to Sumlin to go away. Jimbo’s most-recent extension takes him through 2031. This makes his contract very similar to the one Kelly has. Kelly makes $1 million more in base salary, but I’m not sure how the overall compensation compares. Regardless, I’ll be interested to see which head coach has more success over the next 10 seasons despite Jimbo’s four-year head start.
Good and Bad News from the SEC
Anyway, while in a way I’m disappointed that the SEC didn’t look nearly as good this week as it did in Week 1, I am somewhat encouraged by seeing some vulnerability in a few of the teams on LSU’s schedule in addition to Alabama (more on them later in the week) and Texas A&M:
- Tennessee needed overtime to beat Pitt, and that was against a backup QB who seemed like he was playing hurt after the starter had to leave the game.
- Kentucky beat Florida by 10 in the Swamp after the Gators failed to score an offensive point in the last 35 ½ minutes of the game. (Tennessee and Florida are LSU’s only two SEC East opponents.). Oh by the way, yet another contingent of LSU fans (they may overlap with some of the others) was angry that the Tigers didn’t hire Billy Napier, the former coach at UL-Lafayette and new coach at Florida.
- Auburn only beat San Jose St. by 8 points at home after trailing at halftime.
Interestingly, those five teams all had the same home/away status last week as they will against LSU. So hopefully Alabama and Tennessee continue to have trouble on the road and the others continue to struggle at home.
I’ll have more to say when I post the rankings later in the week.
Alabama, Boise St., Central Florida, Clemson, College Football, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Penn St., Pittsburgh, SEC, Texas, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington St.
Championship Saturday Viewing Guide & Bowl Speculation
In Bowls, College Football, College Football Playoff, General LSU, Preview, Rankings Commentary on November 30, 2018 at 4:24 PMI was trying to get something out timely earlier in the week without being too convoluted, but I may have lost some people in the discussion of some of the various outcomes, so that’s what I want to focus on here. Except for a few comments toward the end, I’m not talking about how things should be or who’s going to win, but I want to let people know teams to support depending on cheering interest.
BASICS
The top 4 teams will play in the Cotton and Orange Bowls. The semifinal bowls and the other bowls that are part of the rotation and affiliated with the CFP committee are called the NY6 for New Year’s Six. Don’t get fixated on that name either though. There are New Years Day bowls that are not those bowls, and all of those bowls won’t be on New Years Day. The name just refers to the six bowls that are part of the CFP process and therefore part of the semifinal rotation.
Champions of the SEC, ACC, Big XII, Pac-12, and Big Ten MUST be in NY6 bowls as must the best team from some other conference(most likely Central Florida).
The Sugar Bowl will be Big XII vs. SEC, and the Rose will be Pac-12 vs. Big Ten. It appears that the Pac-12 representative will be the champion in the Rose Bowl and not anyone else in the other bowls, although there may be a route for Washington St. as discussed in the last blog.
Why does this matter? The most likely visible result would be that even if they lose and even if they’re ranked well below other candidates for at-large spots, Texas is most likely going to the Sugar Bowl (I think the only way this won’t happen is if Georgia, Clemson, and Oklahoma all win). Champions take precedence though. So even if Michigan and Ohio St. are both higher-ranked Big Ten teams, Northwestern would be in the Rose Bowl by winning. Likewise, even if Oklahoma is ranked higher than Texas, the Longhorns will be in the Sugar Bowl if they win the championship over the Sooners. The SEC champion will be in the top 4 no matter what though and therefore not in the Sugar Bowl.
When it comes to following the games, the first thing to note is the games on Friday don’t really matter to anyone but fans of those playing. Whether it’s Utah or Washington, the winner of the Pac-12 championship will go to the Rose Bowl and the loser will go to a non-NY6 bowl. Whether it’s Buffalo or Northern Illinois, both the winner and the loser of the MAC championship will be in non-NY6 bowls.
One other thing to note: since I wrote this,Central Florida has emerged as the popular pick to play in the Fiesta. I don’t know if the media is responding to some inside tip with that, but basically the Fiesta and Peach Bowl teams are interchangeable anyway.
WHAT TO HOPE FOR BY CHEERING INTEREST
Most fans who will be affected at all by this weekend want their school to win and their conference to make the top 4 if that’s relevant, but there are a couple of fan bases worth elaborating upon.
SEC/LSU fans
I touched on this in the last blog, but basically if you’re in the SEC and not an Alabama fan or don’t have some weird regional interest (such as you’re a Florida fan who lives in Atlanta and don’t want to travel), you want Georgia to upset Alabama and you DON’T want Clemson or Ohio St. to be upset (possibly wanting Urban Meyer to lose notwithstanding). This would free up the Sugar Bowl for a third SEC team and allow other SEC teams to compete for other open slots. If Alabama wins, the Bulldogs will most likely take the SEC Sugar Bowl spot, but without another upset, there could still be third and fourth SEC teams in NY6 bowls.
The Oklahoma/Texas outcome probably (I’ll explain the situations below) won’t affect the SEC teams, so feel free to cheer for whichever you dislike less, although the outcome may influence for whom to cheer later.
No matter what happens, teams that are 9th and 10th with 3 losses (LSU and Florida) aren’t going to end up in the top 4, so even a series of upsets like in 2007 won’t put a team other than Alabama and Georgia in the top 4.
Georgia is currently in the top 4, but there is a strong likelihood that Oklahoma and/or Ohio St. winning this weekend would displace them after a Bulldog loss to Alabama.
I’ll explain why the upsets would hurt SEC teams. The teams other than Alabama and Georgia are hoping to be in the “New Years 6 (NY6) but not top 4”category. The SEC wants as few other teams to be in this category as possible. An upset by Pittsburgh, for instance, would put Pittsburgh in this category. Same thing for Northwestern. As I already explained, a potential Texas upset by itself is not going to change anything for the SEC (though it would take the Sooners out of consideration for the top 4).
So let’s say Alabama beats Georgia, Oklahoma beats Texas, Clemson beats Pitt, and Northwestern beats Ohio St.
The following teams would all be in NY6 bowls:Central Florida, Clemson, Ohio St., Northwestern, Washington, Texas, Georgia and Michigan. There would only be room for one other SEC team (probably Florida) in the Sugar, Fiesta, Rose, and Peach Bowls.
Don’t quote me on these bowl picks (the Fiesta Bowl teams are interchangeable under the rules with the Peach Bowl teams, but the Sugar and Rose have fixed conference match-ups), but just to show why there would be no room for a second team…
Cotton: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Orange: Notre Dame vs. Clemson
Sugar: Georgia vs. Texas
Peach: Florida vs. Ohio St.
Rose: Washington vs. Northwestern
Fiesta: Michigan vs. Central Florida
If the one upset is Texas over Oklahoma, it wouldn’t hurt the SEC since Texas would stay in place and no additional teams would be added to the mix:
Cotton: Alabama vs. Ohio St.
Orange: Notre Dame vs. Clemson
Sugar: Georgia vs. Texas
Peach: Florida vs. Central Florida
Rose: Washington vs. Michigan
Fiesta: LSU vs. Oklahoma
If Northwestern beats Ohio St. and other favorites win, something like this would happen, removing LSU’s chance:
Cotton: Alabama vs. Georgia
Orange: Notre Dame vs. Clemson
Sugar: Florida vs. Texas
Rose: Washington vs. Northwestern
Fiesta: Michigan vs. Oklahoma
Peach: Ohio St. vs. Central Florida
If Pittsburgh beats Clemson and other favorites win, something like this would happen, removing LSU’s chance:
Cotton: Alabama vs. Ohio St.
Orange: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
Sugar: Georgia vs. Texas
Rose: Washington vs. Michigan
Fiesta: Michigan vs. Pittsburgh
Peach: Clemson vs. Central Florida
If both Pitt upsets Clemson and Northwestern upsets Ohio St.:
Cotton: Alabama vs. Georgia
Orange: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
Sugar: Florida vs. Texas
Rose: Washington vs. Northwestern
Fiesta: Pitt vs. Ohio St.
Peach: Clemson vs. Central Florida
The takeaway is that any of these would eliminate the second SEC team (most likely LSU) outside of the top 4.
Big Ten/Michigan
It’s more nuanced what Michigan fans should before. As shown above, on the one hand, the right combination of upsets could put the Wolverines in the Rose Bowl. On the other hand, the wrong combination of upsets could see the Wolverines in the Citrus Bowl or similar.
Michigan fans could also be cheering for the long-shot chance of making the top 4, which would involve Ohio St., Clemson, and Oklahoma all getting upset. Clemson with one loss could be ahead of the Wolverines with two losses, but one loss to an unranked team is arguably worse than two losses to top 10 teams (Notre Dame and Ohio St.). Since Oklahoma plays first inthat group, those who support Michigan should consult the scenarios above for beneficial upsets.
Michigan in the top 4 would look like this:
Cotton: Alabama vs. Michigan
Orange: Notre Dame vs. Georgia
Sugar: Florida vs. Texas
Rose: Washington vs. Northwestern
Fiesta: Pitt vs. Oklahoma
Peach: Clemson vs. Central Florida
For generic Big Ten fans, it’s a lot simpler. If Oklahoma beats Texas in the early game on Saturday, the best thing for the Big Ten is for Northwestern to win. I believe Ohio St. will be in an NY6 bowl regardless, so if I’m right there will likely be three Big Ten teams in the NY6 bowls this way.
If Texas wins, it may be more important to cheer for Ohio St. in the hopes the Buckeyes make the semifinal than it is to hope for three Big Ten teams to be in NY6 bowls, but that would be personal preference.
LSU ADVOCACY AND OTHER NOTES
Some fans of other schools seem upset that if LSUis apparently in line for an NY6 bowl, the Tigers aren’t really being punished for the loss. LSU was going to be in the Sugar Bowl provided Georgia made the top 4, but that doesn’t seem to be the case now. The next in line for the Sugar seems to be Florida. I’ve covered a few scenarios above where LSU doesn’t get any NY6 bowl.
A number of bowl projections have LSU being left out of the NY6 bowls even if nothing weird happens, and some even have the Tigers falling all the way to the Outback Bowl (since I imagine the Citrus doesn’t want LSU for the third year in a row).
I don’t know how other than geography you would justify Washington St. going ahead of LSU, but maybe the rankings will be ignored. Other than the questionable A&M loss (the Aggies are now #19 in the CFP rankings), the Tigers’ other two losses have come to top-10 teams. LSU also has a win over Georgia, better than any team the Cougars have played much less beaten. Washington St.has beaten three of the four other teams in the Pac-12 North with winning records (none with a better record than 8-4), but Wazzu has a loss to 5-7 USC. Washington St. has 4 wins against teams with winning records, while LSU has 5. The Cougars also lost to in-state rival Washington. Although the Huskies may be the Pac-12 champions, it’s important to remember they lost to Auburn, who’s in the middle of the SEC on a good day (and who lost at home to LSU).
If Boise St. wins the Mountain West and Central Florida loses the American championship, it’s possible Boise St. could make it ahead of Central Florida. In that case,the Broncos would probably play in the Fiesta Bowl; but as I explained earlier,Central Florida might be slotted for the Fiesta Bowl anyway, so in that case no other team would be affected.
I already talked about the potential impact of Georgia beating Alabama, so I didn’t include that here. I think it would create a Big XII-champions. Florida Sugar Bowl, a Big Ten champion vs. Pac-12 champion Rose Bowl, and the other teams would depend upon who else wins.
CONCLUSION
The simplest way to sum all of this up that I can think of is as follows. The following teams are in NY6 bowls almost no matter what: Alabama, Notre Dame,Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio St., Michigan, and Florida. Washington, Utah, Pittsburgh, Northwestern,Texas, and Central Florida are in with wins. LSU and possibly Washington St. or Penn St. could get in (Penn St. being the least likely of the three); but since none are playing, they’re dependent on the right combination of other teams to win.