As I’ve done the last couple of weeks (including on Thursday), I’m going to wait until the College Football Playoff standings come out for detailed analysis of the remaining competitive teams (which of course no longer include Clemson or LSU), but you can see my ratings here. I will comment briefly that I think it’s appropriate for a couple of different reasons for USC to be ahead of Ohio St. at the moment, so I commend the polls for coming to that conclusion as well and doing so decisively.
I’ve also updated the LSU-Texas A&M Rivalry Blog, which was first written before the 2010 Cotton Bowl. Jimbo Fisher may have a worse record as Aggie head coach than Kevin Sumlin did overall, but he’s 3-2 against LSU compared to Sumlin’s 0-6 record. It’s also the third time in those five games that the team with the better record lost on the road.
I started writing this before the game ended, but I think there will be a few reactions to the LSU-Texas A&M game that aren’t accurate. (ESPN confirmed this this morning, saying “Jimbo Fisher EXPOSES LSU” in the headline of their YouTube video about the game. If the title is something that low-IQ, I don’t even click on it. So I’m not making a point-by-point rebuttal, but I will elaborate more below.)
I don’t think it was trap game or that LSU was looking ahead. It was the next major-conference opponent for two weeks. Yes, there was a big game coming up against Georgia; but the players knew they had some things to clean up after the Arkansas game. Texas A&M had beaten Arkansas earlier in the year after all. The Aggies had suffered some injuries since then, but so had Arkansas. Everyone knew it was a talented, dangerous team. This isn’t a coaching staff that would have distracted the team with an early preview of Georgia (Kelly confirmed this with the media), and winning the game yesterday would have actually taken a weight off of them. Maybe you shock the world, but even if you don’t you have a great bowl game no one expected you to be in to fall back on. Now that’s in doubt.
My impression is that it was the opposite of looking past the opponent. I think some of the LSU players were too nervous and playing not to lose. It’s easy to feel unease in a hostile environment. If there were some consideration of A&M’s record, I definitely think the thought was more, “How much would it suck if we lost to a team with that record?” than “Forget all the great athletes they have, we’ll beat A&M easily because their record isn’t good.”
Playing not to lose was cited by multiple people as why Alabama lost to Tennessee, and I got a similar vibe here. I think that is a more frequent problem with the top teams than “looking ahead”. The Tigers also seemed like they were playing tight against Arkansas, and they weren’t looking ahead three weeks. Arkansas just didn’t have the athletes (or they weren’t playing well enough that day) to capitalize.
I would cite a combination of rivalry, revenge (for last season when LSU won with the lesser team), and wanting to take out an overachieving team that was possibly in position to make the playoff without a loss. Also, they knew it was the last chance to play a game for several months (or ever in some cases). It doesn’t make up for how badly A&M underachieved of course, but there is only so much you can do in one game.
Yes, A&M was up three touchdowns midway through the fourth quarter (I’ll get to the circumstances below), and I think some will say LSU didn’t “show up,” but a game getting away from you doesn’t mean you never showed up. I told Tennessee fans the same thing when some of them said that after the South Carolina loss.
In the second half, LSU started with two three-and-outs on defense and a touchdown on offense to tie the game. I wouldn’t say everything had gone according to plan, but that was a more comfortable position than LSU had had at a similar point in most of the previous games against major-conference opponents. After three drives of the third quarter against Florida St., LSU was down 17-3. At the same point against Mississippi St., LSU was down 16-10. At the same point at Auburn, LSU was down 17-14. At the same point against Ole Miss, LSU had just scored to get to make it 24-20 Rebels. LSU was also way down against Tennessee, but that was the only one LSU didn’t either lose as a result of a blocked extra point or win. I guess one problem was only one of those situations had taken place on the road, so this was more difficult. LSU had some luck against Auburn that they didn’t have here.
Going back to this game in the third quarter, LSU had withstood the A&M rally and was in position to take the lead (and to take the crowd out of it) with another good drive. With the ball and a 17-17 score, LSU gained six yards on first down. That was more than they had gained on any first down in the previous drive (which ended in a touchdown), and the Tigers had only had to convert one third down. But in two plays all of that momentum was reversed. The Tigers were forced into a third down. It was a third and one, which seemed like no big deal given what I said about some prior plays that half, but Daniels made what appeared to be a bad decision not to hand the ball off and tried to roll out. He fumbled as he was hit trying to get around the end, and A&M returned the fumble for a touchdown.
It also didn’t help that LSU’s attempted comeback was thwarted by what I think was a completely incorrect call on the field in the last three minutes, but it still would have been unlikely for the Tigers to come up with another touchdown, a two-point conversion, and at least one other point after. If that’s called a touchdown and there is no fumble, that’s nearly the entire difference in the game though.
This isn’t sour grapes or blaming the refs for the loss, but this is something that has annoyed me for a long time even if it’s not against my team. I think if you have the ball secured against your chest and your feet land in the end zone, that should be a catch, the play should be over, and nothing else should enter the equation. In this situation, WR Jaray Jenkins also took two steps out of bounds with the ball secure. It’s bad enough if the player then goes to the ground in the end zone, but it’s absurd to even talk about what happens on the edge of the turf as he’s avoiding people on the sidelines, but he did eventually go to the ground and drop the ball. I’ve seen players toss the ball up in the air or spike it after demonstrating far less control over the ball. This whole “surviving the ground” thing is nonsense in that situation.
It’s the equivalent of a baseball catcher tagging someone out and then falling and dropping the ball on the way to the dugout. Or an even better analogy would be a basketball player calls timeout as he’s going out of bounds and then drops the ball when he lands on someone’s lap, so the timeout doesn’t count because he retroactively didn’t have possession.
Rant over. My point is it really was a close game, not that playing a 7-loss team close is something to brag about; but it wasn’t in reality all that different from the previous conference game. I don’t think LSU was exposed or embarrassed or anything of the sort, just not the better team that day and certainly not the team that got more breaks.
I noted the live stats as of the end of the third quarter, so it’s not the official three-quarter stats, but it’s close enough. At that point, LSU had about 50 more yards in the air (but more incompletions) and about 50 fewer yards on the ground. This included most of the Texas A&M drive that resulted in the Aggies going up two scores, so LSU was generally the better team before the fumble. The one weakness in the stats was the third-down performance on both sides of the ball. Four of 9 wasn’t bad for LSU’s offense, but giving up 7 of 10 to the other team is terrible, especially if they got a touchdown on one of your OFFENSIVE third downs.
Speaking of third downs, another key play I wanted to highlight took place after the start of the fourth quarter. LSU still had a decent chance of coming back as they were only down 14 with 11:30 to play and had forced a third and six from the A&M 27. The Aggie quarterback Conner Wiegman threw deep downfield to WR Moose Muhammad III, who could not have been covered better, and even threw a little bit behind him. But partly due to Muhammad’s timing in reacting to the ball, it came down right between him and LSU safety Sage Ryan even though both players were touching one another as the ball arrived (it was correct not to call interference either way). The ball even touched Ryan’s fingertips as Muhammed was hauling it in.
I knew the fumble-touchdown had been a dangerous turn in momentum (Brian Kelly said after the game, “That momentum swing, I don’t know that we ever recovered from it”), but that’s in hindsight. It didn’t seem insurmountable in the moment.
That catch, though, gave me a strong conviction that it was not going to be our night. I’m rarely that discouraged in a two-possession game with over 11 minutes left, but I think it was warranted. If we couldn’t stop them despite covering a receiver that well, we weren’t going to be able to stop them. At least not enough to outscore them by two touchdowns the rest of the way.
I do want to elaborate on why I think saying LSU was exposed was a low-IQ take. A good example was 2018, when Ohio St. had beaten unranked opponents by an average score of 51.4 to 16, and the only team that had stayed within single digits of the Buckeyes was a top-ten Penn St. team in Happy Valley. Then Ohio St. loses to unranked Purdue 49-20. That’s exposed.
“Exposed” is not when a two-loss team shows problems it had shown all year (slow start on offense, giving up a large number of rushing yards on defense) but unable to make up for it in other areas on that particular night. LSU gave up 222 rushing yards to Florida, and the Gators were playing from behind (and therefore less inclined to run than they normally would be) the entire second half. Texas A&M never trailed, so it’s not surprising that they did even better. The Aggies did end up on the wrong side of a couple more games, largely due to injuries of key players; but they’re not a dramatically different team than Florida is. Exposing an opponent isn’t confirming a weakness that other similar teams have exploited in the past.
Also, if any exposing was done, it wasn’t Jimbo Fisher doing it. Two of the plays I highlighted were defensive plays, and the offensive play (or plays if you include the touchdown in the picture) was a great individual effort by Muhammad. It wasn’t a brilliant call or a great pass. Without that catch, the Aggie offense would have had only two touchdown drives against three three-and-outs in the final 50 minutes of game play. You’d like them to have zero touchdowns over that span of course, but that’s not being exposed by the other team’s play-caller.
Anyway, I think most reasonable people predicted 8 wins or fewer for LSU, maybe 10 on the high end after a bowl game, so having 9 going into the game is still something to be very proud of. Most people predicted more wins for Texas A&M. I actually wish we didn’t have to play Georgia, but there is a chance something crazy could happen. I thought LSU was going to get blown out by Tennessee in 2001 (the last time LSU made the SEC championship game with three losses), but they weren’t. Regardless, for a team that was so out of it 11 months ago that they barely had enough players to play an embarrassing Texas Bowl to get to #5 in late November was impressive.
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The College Football Playoff Picture with Two Games Left
In College Football, College Football Playoff, Preview, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on November 24, 2022 at 5:43 PMI wanted to start by saying happy Thanksgiving. I thought it was best to get this out today since there is only one game, which is probably not of crucial importance.
Because they have been so dominant until now, Georgia is the only one-loss team I can see finishing ahead of either LSU with two wins in the final games or USC with two wins in the final games. The loser of Ohio St.-Michigan will not have anything on their resume similar to Georgia’s wins over Oregon and Tennessee. It could be an interesting argument if TCU loses or if both LSU and USC lose though. I don’t automatically discount non-champions (even with the same number of losses), but I believe they should be looked at more skeptically.
Strength of Schedule
I touched on this last week, but something that many basic fans either don’t grasp or don’t bother to look into is how much schedules vary. Most conferences are not like the Big XII where it’s a pure round robin; but even in the Big XII, there are still three non-conference games.
I wanted to go over who is on the schedule of the following teams that have a realistic chance at the playoff. I’ll go over the top four teams of the respective conferences and the biggest non-conference game. I’ll mention TCU last because I think most people’s sense of their schedule is accurate.
LSU: Georgia (plays December 3), Alabama (win), Tennessee (loss), Ole Miss (win), Florida St. (loss).
Georgia: LSU (plays December 3), Alabama (did not play), Tennessee (win), Ole Miss (did not play), Oregon (win).
USC: Oregon (not played; possible conference championship opponent {NPPCCO}), Washington (NPPCCO), Utah (loss), UCLA (win), Notre Dame (play on Saturday).
Ohio St.: Michigan (plays Saturday), Penn St. (win), Iowa (win, may play again), Purdue (NPPCCO), Notre Dame (win).
Michigan: Ohio St. (plays Saturday), Penn St. (win), Iowa (win, may play again), Purdue (NPPCCO), Connecticut (win).
Clemson: North Carolina (plays December 3), Florida St. (win), Pitt (did not play), Duke (did not play), Notre Dame (loss).
TCU has beaten the following: Kansas St., Texas, Oklahoma St., Baylor, and Texas Tech. Out of conference, the best win was over 6-5 SMU. As I discussed in the last blog, the Horned Frogs will play either Kansas St. or Texas for a second time in the championship game.
Early Resume Comparison
I’m not making predictions about the remaining games, but I’ll discuss the teams as if I’m comparing them at the end of the season. For instance, if I say LSU will have beaten Georgia, what I’m talking about is the only scenario in which LSU is a contender. I don’t expect LSU to come particularly close to beating Georgia.
The committee does not consider the wins a team would have at the end of the year, or Clemson and USC would be higher. Those are the only two above who have two really decent opponents left. I think it’s harder to have to win successive games like that. Even moreso with USC because it would be three strong wins in a row: UCLA, Notre Dame, and then the #2 Pac-12 team.
If Iowa beats Nebraska, which is highly likely, LSU and TCU will be the only teams to have played every other top-five team of their respective conference. I do think the quality of LSU’s top opponents would make up for the extra loss if TCU were to lose a game.
I know it doesn’t seem like either Big Ten team would be missing a big resume bullet point by not playing Purdue, but Purdue has one fewer loss than Illinois, which led Michigan with about one second left on the clock last week. Also, if you’re not really missing any competition by not playing one of the top five teams of your 14-team conference, that doesn’t say much about your conference schedule.
As I suggested, I’ll be impressed by USC if the Trojans manage to win the next two weeks, and I would not be bitter about it if they were to edge out LSU. I tip my hat to the committee for having LSU #5 right now. I think it shows they understand the lists above, and if the last two games barely put USC ahead of LSU, so be it.
That’s not to say I don’t think LSU would have an argument. One key point is USC’s loss thus far. Utah lost to a mediocre SEC team and beat USC. That suggests to me that USC would have more than one conference loss if they played at least four teams who finished higher in the SEC than Florida did.
This comparison only takes place if LSU wins, so we would either have an SEC non-champion having blown out USC’s best win at the beginning of the year or we would have USC avoiding one of the more dangerous teams in its conference.
Teams Who May Lose Late and Be Considered; Why Clemson Might Deserve a Spot if They Do
Putting LSU aside, Ohio St. would be a very interesting contender if they lose to Michigan. I think they would compensate for having two fewer games against the Big Ten West as a result of the non-conference game against Notre Dame. This argument becomes even stronger if USC is knocked out of the running by Notre Dame.
One-loss Michigan would be a poor contender against anyone but a one-loss TCU though. I know Connecticut beat Liberty and became bowl-eligible, but Connecticut is not a good team. TCU is the only team in this discussion with a similar lacking best non-conference opponent.
Maybe the committee disagrees, but I would prefer a one-loss Clemson to a one-loss Michigan. The ACC wouldn’t be the reason, but playing two non-conference opponents with the kind of quality wins that South Carolina and Notre Dame have would make the difference for me. It would be two good non-conference opponents to zero.
As I discussed in the previous blog, one reason I give Clemson more credit so far than others do is if you play a series of let’s call them high-medium teams (not ranked but above average) such as Louisville and Wake Forest, you’re still exposing yourself to risk of a loss to a higher degree with each game. Just ask Tennessee and Ole Miss. They didn’t show signs of being vulnerable to teams like that over the previous month or two, but they got to the point of playing too many teams that were high-medium or better and apparently didn’t get up enough for every one.
On the other hand, based on the above, you can imagine what the committee has probably said. Even if these other teams are in equal conferences (the ACC is probably the worst of the bunch), Clemson has only played one team in the top five of its conference, and they lost to the only team they’ve played so far who would be in the top five of their conference.
This conversation would probably only come up in seeding, but I wanted to address it anyway. Some are assuming that Georgia will definitely be ahead of LSU even if they lose to the Tigers, but I’m not so sure. If Georgia had to play Alabama and Ole Miss, it’s certainly possible they’d be entering the championship with a loss. Right now, I think the non-conference game against Oregon resolves any doubt; but it becomes a more open question if both Oregon and Florida St. have three losses at the end of the season. This wouldn’t matter in my ratings, but obviously how that SEC championship game plays out would influence this discussion.