Pre-Bowl Top 25 and LSU 2024 Schedule

LSU’s 2024 Schedule : Historical and Competitive Ramifications

I’ve sat down to this blog a few times, and each time some other news item comes out.  The most recent event was the release of LSU’s schedule with the actual dates. 

I decided to just cover that and the top 25 for now.  Interesting bowl games (to me anyway) are still about two weeks away, so the rest can wait.

We’ve known all the teams on LSU’s 2024 schedule for a while but not who LSU was playing on what date.  The one constant going back as long as I remember is Alabama after a bye week and between about November 3 and 12, this time on the 9th. Alabama seems to keep roughly the same order from year to year, but no one else does that I’ve noticed. 

Given the addition of the second bye, I like that it was added before Ole Miss.  That’s been a tough contest lately.  LSU has a three-game losing streak in College Station, but I’m still less worried about that game than about Ole Miss.

Texas A&M was scheduled on the traditional late October date for Ole Miss though. LSU will play the Rebels two weeks earlier, with Arkansas sandwiched in between. 

LSU WR Chris Hilton and the Tigers came up short in the final seconds in Oxford in September. LSU won four “Magnolia Bowls” in a row from 2016 to 2019, but since then the winner has always been the home team.

Florida was traditionally around the date the Ole Miss game is scheduled, but this might be the last year of what has been an annual series since 1971 anyway.  It was also after Alabama this year, so it was easy to leave it where it was.  At least they weren’t both road games in either year.

LSU doesn’t have a long ongoing annual tradition with anyone else on the 2024 schedule. 

They had only played Texas A&M once (in a bowl) between 1995 and 2012, the year the Aggies joined the SEC. LSU had previously played the Aggies in early September, but it’s different when it’s not a conference game.  

I wouldn’t be opposed to making it an early game in the future though, especially since LSU won’t play Auburn annually anymore. Mississippi St. was a typical September fixture for a while also, although on the traditional schedule they were after Alabama. I’m still annoyed LSU plays neither Auburn nor Mississippi St. next year.

Since the annual series with Tulane ended in 1994, LSU has played whatever somewhat proximate SEC is left without a good end-of-year rival. Arkansas was not particularly close to and had no longstanding recent rivalry with anyone in the SEC when it entered, so that was fine for about 20 years. Then after Missouri and Texas A&M joined (and two “transitional” years elapsed), it made sense to split that up when it became clear that the Aggies weren’t playing Texas anytime soon.

Now that the Thanksgiving/rivalry-week Longhorns-Aggies series is rekindled and Bedlam is on hiatus, it wasn’t a huge shock that LSU finishes with Oklahoma in Baton Rouge. We are used to playing a team with a reddish color from a neighboring conference to the west.

The SEC could have mixed things up in some other ways in 2024, but it was easier not to, especially since next year is just a one-off and not part of any dedicated rotation. Just as a neutral fan of college football and historical rivalries, my hope is that Oklahoma either can manage to schedule Oklahoma St. again or that they play Missouri on rivalry week. I would be OK with LSU going back to Arkansas or having some type of rotation (perhaps switching between Oklahoma and Arkansas or between Vanderbilt and Kentucky). There was some history with Kentucky. LSU played the Wildcats 51 years in a row at one point (ending with the 2002 season).

Ollie Gordon II rushes for one of two touchdowns in the 27-24 win in Stillwater, OK, on November 4. Although Bedlam has typically been a close game in recent years, Oklahoma had beaten Oklahoma St. eight of nine seasons going into 2021.  The Cowboys ended on a high note though, winning two of the last three.

As far as I’m concerned, LSU could even go back to playing Tulane if the two sides could come anywhere close to a mutually agreeable deal; but since that hasn’t happened in nearly 30 years, I’m not optimistic. There was a home-and-home in 2006 and 2007, but LSU felt like they gave up revenue from a potential home game to enrich Tulane. Since then, LSU has played every other Louisiana Division I program, all of whom seem content with being paid money to travel to Tiger Stadium occasionally rather than expecting a home-and-home exchange.

Anyway, putting tradition aside, I like that there aren’t brutal back-to-back weeks. Going to Florida after hosting Alabama isn’t ideal, but there is only one instance of LSU playing 2023 bowl teams two weeks in a row, and that’s UCLA and South Alabama (both were barely eligible and both will be home games).

USC and UCLA are separated by Nicholls St. and South Carolina. The Bruins or Gamecocks could have a good year, but I doubt both will. I don’t see much risk of looking past an SEC road game or coming down from an emotional high for the first home game that is against a Power 5 opponent.

There were years when I’ve been glad LSU got an apparently tough opponent from what we used to call the SEC East, but we didn’t need one given the out-of-conference slate. Also, I’m not even sure if you need a good non-annual schedule, especially if the SEC eventually adds a ninth game, in the playoff system. I guess we will see how lines get drawn between 4 and 5, 8 and 9, and 12 and 13 in playoff selection

Top 25

Other than their effects upon the Playoff resumes as mentioned in the previous blog, I didn’t have much to say about the conference championship games because they weren’t very surprising.  I don’t know why Oregon was favored by so much; but as I kept telling everyone, they didn’t deserve it.  I wasn’t a big believer in Georgia since the only SEC West teams they faced were Auburn and Ole Miss and they didn’t do anything out of conference until beating an average Georgia Tech team a couple of weeks ago.  Very good Alabama teams have struggled with Auburn before, so I didn’t attach much importance to that.  In lieu of Georgia, I admittedly picked the “wrong” Big Ten team as #1, but it wasn’t my fault Ohio St. had a better schedule than Michigan.  As expected, the Wolverines had no problem with Iowa. 

I’m listing my top 25 teams below, but I think they all fairly logically proceed from the results of those games and what I had written about the Playoff teams last week.

Rank	Team	Last
1	Washington	1
2	Michigan	2
3	Alabama	5
4	Texas	4
5	Florida St.	6
6	Georgia	3
7	Ohio St.	7
8	Oklahoma	11
9	Oregon	8
10	Penn St.	9
11	Ole Miss	10
12	Missouri	13
13	Liberty	17
14	LSU	15
15	Iowa	12
16	James Madison	14
17	Troy	22
18	Louisville	16
19	Notre Dame	21
20	N Carolina St.	18
21	So. Methodist	—
22	Tulane	19
23	Toledo	20
24	Arizona	24
25	Miami U.	—

Out of Top 25: (23) Oklahoma St., (25) Oregon St.

Honorable mention: Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Oregon St., Clemson, Memphis

Reaction to CFP and LSU’s Bowl Selection

My top 4 agrees with the committee’s, and I would even have the same matchups. I would have had Washington and Texas in the Rose Bowl though, which makes more sense geographically; and I wouldn’t have made the Longhorns (who are supposedly the worse seed) close being at home.

My top 4 is based on the best teams.  I’m not saying that I don’t think a team like Florida St., which went undefeated and even played two programs with multiple championships in the last 20 years out of conference, should be included in the top 4; but I think Alabama and Texas both have strengths of schedule that cancel out the additional loss and then some.

Florida St.’s Exclusion

The committee’s instructions do not include something that says, “an undefeated conference champion should be given priority over a conference champion who is not undefeated.” 

I would be OK with adding such a stipulation, especially if it also added language that said an exception could be made if the non-conference schedule is particularly weak, which would certainly not be the case here. 

My point is the committee did its job.  If I were a one-man committee with the same instructions, I would have put aside my preference for including Florida St. and given the same list of best 4 teams.

There is also language that the committee can consider injuries to major players.  I don’t consider anything like that in my formula, and I can’t think of any consistent way you could apply that to any formula.  There are no strict standards for injury reporting in college football like there is in the NFL.  Even if there were, it would be difficult to enforce that and provide consistent oversight for injury reports of all 133 teams and then add those reports to a formula.  I don’t like the idea of using that as an argument because every team has a mix of players who are hurt or otherwise unavailable from game to game that can affect any outcome.  Others are playing hurt or playing with some other type of stress or distraction.

In the only touchdown drive of the game by either team, Lawrance Toafili (#9) rushed for 75 yards in two plays. Florida St. won the ACC championship, 16-6, over Louisville in Charlotte last night. It was the Seminoles’ first conference championship (and first 13-0 start) since Jimbo Fisher and Jameis Winston led the team in 2014.

What I do think is fair, and what I think the committee did, is to look at how they played at the end of the year.  They did not look like a top-4 team against Florida or Louisville.  I don’t think they looked like a top-20 team in either game.  I have Louisville in the top 20; but if I considered the trajectory of their season, I wouldn’t have them anywhere close.  I have Kentucky #47 right now, and the Wildcats won at Louisville 8 days ago.

I don’t include that in my formula, but I’ve never had a problem with the basketball or baseball committee’s giving more weight to recent results, and I don’t fault the football committee for doing so.  If there were no SEC championship and Alabama beat Georgia earlier in the year, I wouldn’t want them to be given less credit for that, but obviously the committee isn’t being unfair about when you any played a given game.  If anything, I think they’re being charitable to Texas for not considering how long ago the Alabama game was (or any game against a top-20 opponent was) in ranking Texas #3.  But the point is that’s why I don’t include it in my formula.  It could yield unfair results that way, but a person can avoid such outcomes.

So I have Florida St. fifth without considering margin of victory, how the Seminoles looked in those games, or the Jordan Travis injury.  I also didn’t consider how Florida and Louisville were playing, just their respective seasons as a whole.  So I think there are more than enough factors not to consider Florida St. to be a top-4 team.  It’s not just one thing.  But as I said, I’m very sympathetic if you ask me who should get to play for the championship instead of who the four best teams are.

Some people are coping by saying, “at least it’s an expanded playoff next year”; but that doesn’t give me any consolation personally.  None of the major-conference championship games would have been for a spot in the top 12 this year.  I might not even watch next year if LSU isn’t in it.  There is a good chance the committee will already know exactly who the top 12 is by championship weekend, and the games will solely be for seeding.  I’ll have my opinions again, but it will lose a lot of the excitement.

Alabama vs. Texas

To go back to the Alabama-Texas discussion I began in previous blogs (especially the last rankings blog) and touched on a couple of paragraphs ago, I think too much attention is being paid to a head-to-head game in September and not enough attention is being paid to all the games since then.  I have Alabama #2 in strength of schedule vs. FBS teams and Texas 21^st.  Texas does get a little more credit for playing all FBS teams though.  If I ignore Chattanooga from Alabama’s schedule and drop Baylor from Texas’s schedule, Alabama still ends up stronger.  The average of the best 12 teams Alabama faced is about equal to that of #39 Iowa St.  The average of the best 12 teams Texas faced is about equal to that of #51 Northwestern.

So now I’m going to get to arguments from outside of looking at the computers.  Alabama has a better loss from longer ago.  The #1 wins by each team are roughly even (Alabama vs. Georgia), but I would give Alabama more credit for getting the win in December versus September.  Even if you still give Texas a point from there to make the two teams even, I don’t know how you argue LSU and Ole Miss aren’t better wins than Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. 

I think Texas would have to have a far superior list of the more middle-of-the-road wins to overcome that, and I don’t think they do.  Texas beat Wyoming, Iowa St., and Texas Tech.  Alabama beat Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Auburn.  Those are pretty similar lists of three.  Although it did fall a little short, I do think the Longhorns made a very good attempt at playing the necessary type of schedule to prepare them for an SEC season.  If you’re one of those people who says, “sorry, that win over Auburn was ugly and if they’re that close, I’m going with head to head,” that’s a reasonable point of view.  It’s just not how I see it.  I would have been perfectly happy to have joined you in laughing at Alabama if Texas and Florida St. had made it ahead of the Tide though.

Alabama WR Isaiah Bond (who may have pushed off first) catches the go-ahead touchdown pass on fourth and 31 in Auburn 8 days ago. The need for a miracle finish in this situation is one argument against Alabama’s inclusion in the top 4.

As I mentioned, what I don’t like is when someone says, “I don’t care what else they did, they each have a loss and Alabama’s is to Texas. End of story.”  That’s just wanting to rush to a conclusion and not consider the season as a whole.  Word keeps telling me not to use the phrase “season as a whole,” but I don’t know a better way to distinguish my more holistic approach from the approach of just cherry-picking a couple of factoids and stopping there.

Washington vs. Michigan

I don’t have strong feelings about Washington ahead of Michigan, but I’ll lay out the arguments.  I have Michigan about 99% as good as Washington, so there isn’t a huge separation.  I like that Washington had a much tougher game this weekend, but obviously Michigan had a much tougher rivalry-week opponent.  Maybe some of the narrow margins of victory (both Oregon games, Arizona, Arizona St., Utah, Oregon St., and Washington St. were all within one possession) hurt the Huskies.  Michigan had a robust list of top-three wins: Ohio St., Penn St., and Iowa.  I think Oregon would beat Ohio St. and Penn St. but it was just unfortunate for the Ducks that they had to play a top-2 team twice instead of Ohio St.’s once.  Iowa is a better third win than Washington’s third, which might be Arizona.  But then Michigan’s fourth- and fifth-best wins are UNLV and Bowling Green (they didn’t play Northwestern or Wisconsin, which are my two highest Big Ten teams after Iowa).  I strongly believe both would lose to both Oregon St. and Utah and probably USC as well.

LSU Bowl Selection Reaction

D’Cota Dixon celebrates the game-clinching interception of LSU QB Brandon Harris in 2016 in Green Bay, Wisc., as LSU was driving with just under a minute left in the game. This was one of the final nails in the coffin for LSU head coach Les Miles, who was fired three weeks later.

I’m sure I’ll go more into bowl match-ups later, but I’m disappointed that LSU will be playing Wisconsin.  I was hoping for either Notre Dame, which would give the Tigers a chance to get revenge for some foolishness in bowl losses over the last 10 years (as well as being the Brian Kelly bowl), or Iowa.  The contrast in styles for Iowa/LSU would have been worth getting up early for.  Wisconsin isn’t an offensive juggernaut – they haven’t scored more than 30 points in a game since September – but they’re not Iowa.  Wisconsin isn’t even in my top 50.  I think either LSU won’t get up for the game and it will be ugly regardless of the winner or we could get another blowout like last season.  Neither would be a very satisfying end to the year. It’s one of six bowl games between the SEC and the Big Ten.

Top 25 Later This Week

I have my top 25 ready.  Of course it’s mostly based on my ratings with a few adjustments, but I don’t want to overshadow it with all of the discussion of the top 4, so look for that later in the week.

Rivalry Week Top 25 & Look Ahead

I started writing this at a reasonable time, but I had some distractions and decided to add an extra section. I settled on just one picture to get it published faster. Even my cat is wondering what’s taking so long.

CFP Reaction and Playoff Considerations

The committee has had last-second changes of heart before, but I think they’re still telegraphing pretty clearly that the Pac-12 championship game is for a playoff spot. They don’t care if Oregon only has the 52nd toughest schedule, compared to Alabama having the #5 schedule (vs. FBS), Ohio St. having the #25 schedule, and Texas having the #31 schedule. (Texas did not play an FCS opponent, so I’d argue for the Longhorns ahead of the Buckeyes assuming a win this weekend.) They just love Bo Nix and his passes that travel all of five yards in the air regardless of the competition. I’m usually for undefeated teams that keep getting lucky (like Washington) to lose but not in this case. I don’t dislike Oregon or Bo Nix, I’ve talked about him and his family positively on this blog. I just hate these hype campaigns and biased “eye tests” that ignore facts.

Anyway, a secondary issue is that Ohio St. is too high as the #2 one-loss team according to the committee, but I highly doubt Alabama stays behind the idle Buckeyes if the Tide beat Georgia. I’d be more worried if I were Texas. I’ve talked about how if it came down to Texas and Alabama, Texas would go ahead due to head-to-head; but there is no such issue if the last spot were to come down to Ohio St. and Alabama. Just keep that in mind if you’re counting on Saban not being in the Playoff.

I did notice something that I believe helps a potential argument for an SEC team to either be in the playoff with one loss or be #1 even if there are multiple undefeated teams. It’s that the top 5 teams in the SEC (Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU) have only lost to each other or to a team in the CFP top 7 (or in my top 7).

The only two home losses by the top 5 of the SEC were Alabama to Texas and Missouri to LSU. I mention that because it generally took a hostile environment combined with a very good team to bring these teams down. I think given that Ole Miss had to play both championship contenders (both on the road) and beat LSU, they belong ahead of Missouri, but that’s another mystery of the committee. Maybe they just don’t like Lane Kiffin’s tweets.

So if Alabama wins, they will have beaten three of the four other teams in the top 5 (all but Missouri). If Georgia wins, they will also have beaten three of the four other teams (all but LSU).

Anyway, you obviously don’t get that kind of quality anywhere else. I have been an advocate for Oregon St., but they have four losses now and even this committee who loves the Pac-12 only has them 20th. That’s a big drop off. They lost to a Washington St. team who finished with a losing record. Arizona, who’s become the darling Pac-12 team lately, lost to a mediocre USC team and lost to Mississippi St., who like Wazzu finishes with a losing record.

You can go three teams deep in the Big Ten, but Big Ten #4 Iowa has that ugly loss to Minnesota, who also finished with a losing record. It wasn’t necessarily a fair loss, but maybe if the Golden Gophers had needed another score to win, it would have changed the way the game ended. The point is the top of the SEC isn’t nearly as threatened with mediocrity as the top of these other conferences has been.

I shouldn’t even have to mention the Big XII. The team that made the title game (they don’t have divisions, so they’re not #4 and lucked into the title game like Iowa did, they actually finished second overall in the conference {winning a tie-breaker over Oklahoma}) lost to South Alabama by 26, to Iowa St. by 7, and to Central Florida by 42! Those three teams each barely qualified for a bowl, and South Alabama is 6-6 despite playing in the Sun Belt. Losing to Oklahoma, a team who lost to Oklahoma St., should count against Texas even if the Longhorns will have beaten the Cowboys. And it shouldn’t be brushed off as, “Texas only lost a team who tied for second in their conference, no big deal.”

I took some criticism this week in one of the discussion groups I’m in for not thinking head-to-head tie-breakers are always fair. The Big XII is a perfect example. Texas was the #1 team. I think if two teams are tied for second, the first question should be “did you play the #1 team?” If the answer for one is yes and the other is no, the team who answered yes should win the tie-breaker. You don’t reward the team who answered no and lost to worst teams (Oklahoma St. and Kansas went a combined 12-6 in the Big XII; Iowa St. and Central Florida went a combined 9-9).

So let’s say undefeated Florida St., undefeated Michigan, 1-loss Oregon, 1-loss Georgia, 1-loss Washington, 1-loss Ohio St., 1-loss Texas, and 1-loss Alabama. We can put the undefeated teams aside, but I think when you rank the one-loss teams by resume, the first thing you should ask is “was the one loss to one of the teams in this pool of playoff candidates”. If it was, those teams should get a leg up. In this case, that would be all the 1-loss teams except Texas. Then we’d talk about wins. Texas and Alabama will have had the two best wins in my opinion, but then who’s #2 and #3? Texas’s would be borderline top-25 teams Kansas St. and Oklahoma St. Alabama’s would be solid top-15 teams Ole Miss and LSU. I don’t think you ignore that because Texas was the better team on a given Saturday in September.

I’m not saying how you sort out the rest of that mess if it happens, but I am saying I think in that scenario I’d like to see Alabama with a higher ranking than Texas. I like a fair national championship system more than I like to see Nick Saban upset, but it’s a close call, so I won’t be all that angry if Texas goes ahead. This isn’t SEC homerism either. I mentioned Georgia. I’d have to see how the numbers shake out, but right now I have Georgia 81st in schedule strength vs. FBS and Texas 31st. They’ll get closer this weekend but not that much closer; and as mentioned, I’d give Texas an edge for not having played an FCS opponent also. In addition, I’m also in favor of resolving doubts in favor of conference champions, at least while we still have a 4-team playoff. So I’d want a 1-loss Texas ahead of a 1-loss Georgia.

LSU’s Defense Going Forward

The drumbeats about LSU needing a new defensive coordinator continue despite the results over the weekend seemingly casting down on that necessity.

Texas A&M recently scored 51 points against Mississippi St., a team against which Ole Miss only managed 17 points on Thanksgiving. The Aggies managed less than 60% of that total against LSU on Saturday.

Are they really sure LSU’s defense hasn’t improved from giving up 55 to Ole Miss?

Also, they keep repeating the idea that the LSU coaching staff was not able to make defensive adjustments. That’s interesting given that Texas A&M scored 24 points in the first 39 minutes (0.62 points per minute) and only 6 in the remaining 21 minutes (0.29 points per minute).

Jayden Daniels breaks free of the Texas A&M front seven in the first half in Baton Rouge on Saturday. Although two of the touchdowns were 1-yard runs by running backs, Daniels led the Tigers to six touchdown drives versus just three punts against the best defense the Tigers have faced all season. Daniels accounted for 235 yards passing and 120 yards rushing. LSU runs its record to 9-3 against the Aggies since the latter joined the SEC in 2012. Texas A&M has not won in Baton Rouge since 1994.

Texas A&M is the second-beat team LSU beat. Against the best team, the Tigers were also improved in the second half. Missouri had scored 25 in the first half against LSU and only 14 in the second half. Then the anti-House activists say weird things like, “if LSU doesn’t get a pick-6, they might have lost that game.” Is that not a good defensive play? It’s just bizarre. They also say that about Greg Penn’s interception against Texas A&M, by the way, even though if you add 7 points to A&M’s total, LSU still wins comfortably. Remember, LSU went into victory formation on first and goal.

Alabama did score 21 in each half; but in the second half, the Tide was aided by an interception of their own deep in LSU territory. Alabama was scoreless over the last 13 minutes. Obviously, they had no urgency to score with Jayden Daniels sidelined and a 14-point lead, but Alabama does not fail to score points at the end of games just to be nice. And that’s a close enough margin not to put all the bench warmers in to see what happens.

Speaking of Alabama, they gave up 6 more points to Auburn last weekend than LSU did. Maybe Saban doesn’t know what he’s doing, right? I know he’s not the coordinator, but I think every knows the buck stops with him on defense at least.

The game before Texas A&M was against Georgia St., a Sun Belt team roughly equivalent to the South Alabama team I mentioned in the previous section (so not the type of team completely incapable of an upset of a top 25 opponent). They scored 14 points in the first 17:15 of the game, but they didn’t score again after that. Are we sure no adjustment was made to ensure that?

I’m not saying Matt House is the best defensive coordinator LSU can get or that he’s worth the salary he’s being paid. But like I was saying about the playoff committee, I really don’t like when facts and a fair evaluation of those facts is pushed aside to push a narrative. It’s the worst defense ever. There were never any improvements at any point during a given game or during the season. Every time they held someone below 20, it’s because the opposing offense was trash and really should have been shut out. This is what the LSU radio shows and podcasts say almost every day.

Before the Alabama game, some of these same commentators admitted that since halftime of the Missouri game, the LSU defense had gotten better. This is when they were pushing the narrative that LSU had a good chance in that game.

Now that they’re pushing the narrative that Jayden Daniels was perfect even in the losses (to be fair, he was pretty close to perfect in the loss to Ole Miss), it’s back to pretending there was functionally no defense at all at any point in any SEC game. I’d like to see Jayden Daniels win the Heisman as much as anyone, but you can just say (accurately) there were a lot of defensive struggles without which he would have had more possessions and a better record. You don’t have to ignore every modicum of success the defense had.

It seems that LSU is not doing all that great in getting defense recruits even though they need them. The media hosts I’m talking about think that’s proof of what they’re saying. I think it’s more proof that the things they’re saying are being believed, not that they’re all true. So the lies and exaggerations that might be made with the idea of helping Jayden Daniels (and that’s my attempt to be charitable about the motivations) might be doing some harm in other areas.

Comments About My Top 25

Michigan had 99.92% as many points (if we set #133 Kent St. at 0 points) as Washington, so it was an extremely close call for #1. I think this is the first time I’ve ever personally ranked Washington #1. I did think they were better than U. Miami in 1991 though. Georgia, who was only playing Georgia Tech, was not surprisingly passed up by Michigan. That does not mean the Bulldogs won’t be in the running for #1 with a win over Alabama though.

I think most of the other teams moved up in a logical and predictable way. You still get a fair amount of credit for beating teams that aren’t in the top 25, and there are a few that are that don’t cause too much damage. That’s why you see a big jump by North Carolina St. Similarly, Louisville only fell a few spots for losing to Kentucky. Oregon St. has lost three out of five games, but they were all to teams ranked higher, so I don’t mind them being #25. The alternative was Kansas St., who just lost to #39 Iowa St.

The Wildcats lead my honorable mentions list though, trading places with Oklahoma St. North Carolina and UNLV lost and were replaced by Kansas and Utah, who were still hanging around after recently falling out of the top 25. Clemson and Memphis remained on the list from last week.

My Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Washington	2
2	Michigan	4
3	Georgia	3
4	Texas	5
5	Alabama	6
6	Florida St.	7
7	Ohio St.	1
8	Oregon	9
9	Penn St.	8
10	Ole Miss	10
11	Oklahoma	11
12	Iowa	15
13	Missouri	12
14	James Madison	18
15	LSU	17
16	Louisville	13
17	Liberty	14
18	N Carolina St.	24
19	Tulane	22
20	Toledo	20
21	Notre Dame	19
22	Troy	21
23	Oklahoma St.	—
24	Arizona	25
25	Oregon St.	23

Out of Top 25: (16) Kansas St.

Honorable mention: Kansas St., Clemson, Memphis, Kansas, Utah

Week 11 Top 25 2023

I was supposed to have time to do this on Wednesday but ended up having an unusually long (and rainy) work day instead, so I’m writing this on Thursday night (Friday morning for many of you).

Best-laid plans of mice and A&M boosters, I suppose.

Recap of LSU/Florida and Rivalry

It wasn’t because there was nothing to write about. I’m happy to make fun of Texas A&M and Florida, who lost a fifth straight to LSU. No one else has a losing streak to LSU that goes back to the national championship season (unless Vanderbilt’s streak of two counts). Although the LSU/Florida series dates back to 1937 and has been played annually since 1971, this was the first time LSU won five straight. Florida had once won nine straight from 1988 to 1996, but LSU now has its first lead in the series since then. If LSU doesn’t win another game this season, I’ll still feel some measure of success from that fact.

While it is unlikely that the LSU/Florida series will continue annually beyond that, the Tigers will at least make the return trip to Gainesville next year. I will endeavor to update the key Rivalry Series in the next week or so.

Not to be bitter about it, but the damage is done anyway. Having to play Florida every year, which included going to the Swamp every even year (apart from 2016), at least more often than not placed the Tigers at a disadvantage in the SEC West as far back as 1996. I guess it did in years before that too, but LSU was so bad it didn’t really matter. LSU had also played Auburn, which was strong for roughly the same time period, on the road in even years. The combined influence of those two games prevented LSU from winning the West in an even year until last season. The other SEC Championship appearances had been 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2011, and 2019. I acknowledge a certain crimson opponent played a role as well, but LSU’s unique struggles with them really only started in the 2012 calendar year.

LSU had to play Auburn every year by virtue of being in the West (that series will not be played next year), but had the Florida series not been made permanent, playing a different SEC East opponent could have made the difference in 1996 (when LSU would been one game better rather than losing a tie-breaker with Alabama) and 2006 (when LSU would have won a tie-breaker with Arkansas, but the additional loss made that irrelevant).

Given that the game was typically in early October though, it put the Tigers behind in 8-ball in several additional seasons. For example, LSU would have known going into the Arkansas game in 2000 that a win would have sent them to Atlanta (ironically, they went to Atlanta anyway to play in the Peach Bowl). Florida dealt LSU its first loss in 2008, and QB Jarrett Lee was never the same again. If it weren’t for his late-season penchant for throwing “pick sixes”, LSU could have easily won all but one other SEC game. LSU also nearly lost to Troy later in that season (seems like that would have taught the AD a lesson, but I digress). I doubt it affected the SEC championship games, but Florida also dealt LSU its first losses in 2012 and 2018, respectively.

Anyway, this was the largest win by either team since LSU’s 41-11 win in 2011. I’ll give the Gators credit for keeping it close for a while though. It didn’t help LSU that, as a result of a poorly-fielded kickoff, the Gators were able to score twice in just a couple of minutes to take a 28-24 lead in the third quarter. Jayden Daniels is a little bit more reliable for generating points than hoping for points off of turnovers and other miscues though, so the Tigers outscored the Gators 28-7 the rest of the way.

Jayden Daniels rushes against Florida on Saturday in Baton Rouge. He ran so well, I can’t even be certain which play this was; but I believe it was the 85-yard touchdown that was along the left side of the field. Daniels became the first person to pass for 200 yards and run for 200 yards in an SEC game at some point in the third quarter, but he finished with over 350 passing yards, which had never been done along with that many rushing yards. Johnny Manziel had thrown for 200 and rushed for 200 once; but that was in a bowl game, so we really hadn’t seen anything like this before.

The LSU defense and coordinator Matt House continue to get a lot of flak, but keeping Alabama within one possession at least until the fourth quarter (if not the entire rest of the game) and keeping Florida from getting a lead the whole game would have been something to be proud of. It’s just not helpful if you put them on the field with their backs close to the end zone seconds after the previous drive ends.

Response to College Football Playoff Top 25

I’ll start by saying there is nothing really new in terms of grievances with the College Football Playoff’s top 25. Oregon’s being ahead of Alabama and Texas continues to make no sense if you care about schedule strength.

At least Oregon St. is no longer the top 2-loss team, having been passed by Missouri. I don’t expect the Beavers will stay the one of the top 2-loss teams indefinitely anyway given games against Washington and Oregon coming up. If they win both, I’ll be happy for them to be the top 2-loss team though. More on them below.

I’d also like them to care more about the schedules of teams like Arizona and North Carolina, but those are far enough down that I’m not sure they really matter. The Arizona/Arizona St. game might actually be game though. It looked like it was going to be a pillow fight earlier in the year.

Comments about My Ratings

I had a bit of time to smooth out the rough edges this weekend and I still liked the results to add the original ratings back in as I described last week.  It also makes sense for some of the teams lower in the ratings because there is a number I have to adjust to factor in the bad teams so one bad loss doesn’t swallow multiple wins.  I can re-add the original ratings without that adjustment though, which I think is the fairer approach.

I was also able to do conference ratings and strength of schedule.  I will wait another week to see if the strength of schedule is giving teams enough credit in the ratings.  That might also be a further adjustment to the formula.  The same basic numbers and computations are being used regardless, it’s just been a continuing balancing act over years between giving credit for wins and giving credit for quality of competition.

It’s amazing that LSU, Ole Miss, and Penn St. have only seven combined losses and are still in the top 7 of the strength of schedule.  Duke is the only other team in the top 12 with a winning record.  Others in the top 20 with winning records are Utah, Kansas St., Kansas, Notre Dame, Missouri, and USC.  I did opt not to put Kansas in the top 25 below due to some of the losses they have though.

I think it’s fair that even though Michigan and Georgia still don’t have great schedules that this recognizes their schedules are now comparable enough that they should be ranked ahead of teams with losses like Texas and Alabama. I think barring any major upsets (based on rank, not necessarily based on betting line), most people would agree that the Top 4 should be Big Ten champion, SEC champion, undefeated Florida St., and undefeated Washington. If Alabama were to lose the SEC championship, the next beneficiary (for now) of a potential upset should be Texas if they win out. This recognizes that.

The conference ratings weren’t very surprising.  The SEC and Big Ten are neck and neck, but I think the SEC will pull away slightly next week given the out-of-conference games.  There are non-conference games the week after that, but I don’t like Kentucky’s, Florida’s, or South Carolina’s chances against ACC opponents (I’m not too worried about Georgia), so that might bring the SEC closer to the Big Ten again.

The SEC would still be ahead after adding the new programs to the Big Ten and the SEC.  That’s not really proof of too much about next season anyway given that Washington, Oklahoma, etc., can’t get as many good wins without hurting someone else in their respective future conferences next season.  It might mean that the Big Ten will be harder to beat in future seasons; but on the other hand, maybe Oregon and Washington fall back to the more mediocre status they occupied not too long ago.

Washington is very close to getting the top spot in the computer ratings.  I definitely think the Huskies will have that spot with a win, but they might lose it the week after (Washington St. wouldn’t count for nearly as much as Michigan would) and reclaim it the week after that (Oregon would count for a lot more than Iowa would). I expect to keep Ohio St. #1 here however for the next couple of weeks absent a loss or something really concerning. I’ll be very interested in how the ratings shape up after the conference championships though.

The initial line I saw had Washington barely favored over Oregon St., and then I saw one in which the Beavers were favored.  I definitely think that’s the big game this weekend. As I’ve mentioned, the Huskies have a couple of very narrow wins at home, so playing a team that’s been playing well on the road might be a challenge.  They might gain more support in the polls and the CFP with the win also, but those are much more stubborn than my ratings are.

Another Heisman candidate now, Michael Penix, Jr., throws under pressure against Oregon St. in Seattle last November. The Huskies won at the last second, 24-21, so it makes sense that the Beavers are given a very good chance to win at home this time despite the Huskies’ undefeated record.

I feel bad for Oregon St. that they lost a close game in Pullman when Wazzu was playing well, but the Cougars have gone down like the Hindenburg since then.

Three of the Honorable Mentions got promoted last week, so keep an eye on those. This week, all but one is in a Power Five conference, so that’s a noticeable change. That one other team is Coastal Carolina, the only one that hasn’t been ranked at some point this season.

My Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Washington	3
3	Florida St.	2
4	Michigan	6
5	Georgia	7
6	Texas	4
7	Alabama	5
8	Penn St.	9
9	Ole Miss	8
10	Oregon	11
11	James Madison	10
12	Missouri	16
13	Oklahoma	13
14	Iowa	19
15	Louisville	14
16	Liberty	17
17	Kansas St.	24
18	LSU	25
19	Oregon St.	21
20	Troy	20
21	Toledo	—
22	Tulane	—
23	Notre Dame	23
24	Utah	18
25	Memphis	—

Out of Top 25: (12) Kansas, (15) Oklahoma St., (22) Tennessee

Honorable mention: Kansas, Oklahoma St., Coastal Carolina, North Carolina, Southern CA

LSU/Alabama: The Morning After

I went on a short overnight trip to see a friend this weekend, and I got back just in time to watch Alabama score 21 unanswered points and just in time to spend 4 hours trying to get my computer to work. Due to the trip, I hadn’t done any of the steps I usually do in advance, such as entering in the bye weeks and the weekday games.  That’s why the computer ratings were delayed until later.  Also, I wanted to write this and get in all the key points while the game (and some of the pregame information) was fresh in my mind. Given that I still have a lot of work to do with the ratings, I’m not going to spend time looking for more than one picture.

Proper Perspective and Looking at the Bright Side

I can assure you the delay wasn’t because I was overcome with grief over LSU.  I’m actually fairly unfazed.  I’m far less upset or frustrated than I was after the other two losses this year.

You don’t have a 28-21 lead in the third quarter of a game like this if you’re just average and don’t belong on the field with these guys. According to Saban and all the Alabama commentators I heard, this was the healthiest Alabama has been all year, and I definitely think it was the most complete game by their offense all year. The final score being a loss by 14, especially given how it ended, doesn’t mean we played like a worse team than Arkansas, who lost by 3, or Texas A&M, who lost by 6. It doesn’t mean we’re equivalent to South Florida, who also lost by 14. Those teams didn’t get Bama’s best shot, which is what LSU typically gets after the Tide has all offseason, 8 games, and a bye week to figure it out.

No matter who we could have theoretically hired in late 2021—Nick Saban, Bill Belichik, Andy Reid, Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, whoever you can name who’s still alive—I would not have expected that person to win the SEC West in year one and have the inside track to win the West after the Alabama game in year two.  (Not to mention Jimbo Fisher, Billy Napier, or Lincoln Riley, the people some wanted to hire.) Maybe one of those guys doesn’t go 1-4 against the combination of Florida St., Ole Miss, and Texas A&M so far; but I wouldn’t have expected a single one of them to follow last year’s West championship with putting LSU where they would have been with two conference games left this year.  

One bit of good news is chances are about 99/100 that as of next week we will be able to say for the foreseeable future “Ole Miss never won the SEC West.” Technically, the SEC regards losers of the tiebreaker to be “co-champions,” but I don’t have to agree. I think the pro sports have the right interpretation of this. The point of a tie-breaker is not to have a tie anymore, so even if you have the same record as the division champion, you’re not the division champion if you’re not the team that advances with that designation. So for SEC divisions, if you lost a tie-breaker and don’t get to go to Atlanta, you shouldn’t be called the divisional champion. The same should apply to Alabama last year or the Alabama team who lost the “Kick Six” game, by the way. So if someone corrects you and says, “actually we were the champions that one time, we just didn’t go to Atlanta,” tell them you don’t believe in participation trophies.

Also, we now have a good chance (less good if Daniels is out, but maybe Nussmeier will finally prove he can be reliable) to finish the season on a four-game winning streak including the bowl. That would not be the case if Georgia were on the docket. Even though in January we won possibly the biggest blowout ever in a bowl game, I still had a bit of a bad taste in my mouth at the end of last season because of the SEC Championship Game. It was some consolation that Georgia eventually became the national champions with a dominating game though.

The Final Score was One of Many Foreseeable Results

In the preview, I mentioned that Alabama had scored 40 against Mississippi St. and I wasn’t sure what their upper limit was if they weren’t up 31-13 at the half as they were against the Bulldogs, but it was somewhere above 40.  So it wasn’t an unforeseeable event that they scored just two more points than they had against Mississippi St. since not only were they not up at halftime, they were behind before they even saw the ball in the second half.  The maximum was at least 48 though, because their kicker usually makes kicks of less than 50 yards, and he missed two.

I can’t fully address why the offense fell just short of what I thought their minimum point output would be without addressing what happened to Daniels, so excuse the upcoming rant.

When LSU won last year, I mentioned the referees are always on Alabama’s side in these games.  It was the same thing this year.  There was a horse collar on Jayden that they didn’t call (seemingly in the hopes that LSU wouldn’t score a touchdown at the end of the first half), and LSU scored anyway.  But I think it gave Alabama permission to keep coming for him and there wouldn’t be any potentially game-altering consequences.  Then even when they knock him out of the game, they don’t call targeting or even stop the game to review targeting.  If launching at the quarterback so that the crown of your helmet hits him in the chin after he releases the ball isn’t targeting, they need to abolish the targeting rule entirely.  95-99% of the players ejected for targeting did something less deliberate and less egregious.   

I thought the time where you can just throw the kitchen sink at a quarterback with the apparent attempt to injure him was gone, but I guess not when you have SEC officials and Alabama is involved.  There was a scene in Mighty Ducks 2 where a player for Iceland (which is the villain team of the movie) goes to the penalty box and says, “Two minutes?  Well worth it.”  15 yards when you’re still in LSU territory and don’t lose one of your own players was well worth knocking Daniels out of the game. 

If this wasn’t targeting, the word has no meaning other than “play the officials don’t like.”

Anyway, even if the officials had done nothing wrong and Alabama were treated fairly with those calls, my number of 31 as a minimum was assuming Daniels didn’t get hurt with over 20% of the game left to play.  I didn’t think LSU would score over 40 regardless, but they would have had at least a chance to do that, so I think my belief that LSU would score in the 30s was well-founded.  Also, LSU was in field goal position on two different occasions without coming away with points.  One field goal attempt was missed, and the other opportunity was toward the end of the game when a field goal wouldn’t have given the Tigers an improved chance of victory.  The latter was one of two times that LSU turned the ball over on downs. 

Why Do We Have This Defense Anyway?

To go back to the coaching staff, some people might still be asking how coaches who are as well-paid as Brian Kelly and Matt House allowed such a bad defense in the first place that we have to worry about whether the opponent will score more or less than 40 points and whether we can keep up with them even with one of our best offenses in history. 

Last season, we brought in a few stop-gap transfers because there was no choice given how depleted the roster was by mismanagement by Coach O and the departure of players who were not pleased with going .500 (and some other shenanigans) over the previous two seasons.  This season we tried to do the same, and it just didn’t work out at all.  I don’t know what Denver Harris (Texas A&M transfer) and Deuce Chestnut (Syracuse) did wrong, but they haven’t been participating with the teams in months.  They still have scholarships at LSU, but we aren’t told anything official beyond that. One of the transfers last year actually had two years of eligibility and was expected to be the leader of the secondary.  His name is Greg Brooks, Jr., and he’s currently battling brain cancer.  We had brought in another transfer (J.K. Johnson from Ohio St.) who was hurt in the offseason.  In addition to this, there was a fluke injury to Zy Alexander right before the starters left the game against Army.

I know it doesn’t benefit teams and coaches to whine about things like this and cite it as a reason for failures, and some people accept the standard “next man up” answer as fact because it’s so reinforced; but sometimes it’s just not the reality.  You can’t take over a roster that was barely able to field a team for the Texas Bowl after the 2021 season and bring into your second season not only one of the best and most experienced offenses we’ve ever had BUT ALSO a defense so deep with competent players that they don’t give up multiple touchdowns a half to good teams after you lose 5 players in the secondary from what you had planned on going into the year. 

In the future, if Kelly keeps recruiting well, we will have four or more classes of players that we have been able to develop within the system and possibly some transfers that we can give a chance to prove themselves.  But every transfer isn’t someone just waiting to be great like Joe Burrow; some are misfits in one program and continue to be misfits in the next.

Alabama Played Close to Their Potential and LSU Did Not

Now, why was I saying people were bringing up the injuries too much before the game?  For one thing, that was already factored into my point that Alabama could get their highest point total in an SEC game against LSU.  For another thing, we had two opportunities (3^rd and 3 from the Alabama 33 and 3^rd and 11 from the LSU 33) to shut Alabama out in the second quarter.  If we do that, we would have been on pace to hold Alabama to 28, which is what I thought was the minimum (again, factoring in the players we did have suited up and ready). 

None of this is to say Alabama didn’t play better than LSU did, especially in the latter part of the third quarter.  The Tide was the overwhelming favorite to win before the hit on Daniels.  Even if he had two fourth-quarter touchdown drives in him, who’s to say Alabama makes the same calls on the second-to-last drive?  Maybe they’re more aggressive and this sets up an easier field goal attempt or a touchdown.  Even if you give LSU 14 more points, that only forces a tie.  Alabama may have had time to get another field goal attempt before time expired.  I also think they more likely than not would have won in an overtime.

I maintain that the players on both sides of the ball for LSU had the talent and training to play a lot better than they did. 

One thing I didn’t mention was the interception.  That alone could have put both teams in the 30s.  It was one of the rare stops of LSU up to that point as well as setting up a 25-yard Alabama touchdown drive.  Daniels has the ability to avoid short-yardage interceptions like that.  It’s one thing if you take a shot downfield and it ends up being like a punt, which I think was the case for the last interception he threw; but it’s quite another if the other team takes over the ball when they’re already in field goal position.  He’s also gone several games at a time with no interceptions.  I think he played most of last season before he threw one.

There was also a timing issue with some of the receivers.  I’m not sure exactly what the cause was.  This seemed to have been the problem when Daniels missed Nabers on 4^th and 1 from the Alabama 42 in the first quarter, for instance.  That’s another play that could have changed the complexion of the game. 

I also wonder if there might have been more opportunities for him to run.  If you’re averaging 14.8 yards per run on 11 attempts, it seems you’d try to keep doing it.  Maybe he didn’t want there to be more uncalled penalties against him though.

In short, a handful of plays could have easily gone differently and drastically affected the score, and I can’t think of any major skill player on the team who had a great day.  Daniels had a great first 34 minutes (at that time LSU had 28 points and was on pace for 49 for the game) where he was able to compensate for most of the miscues; but in the next two drives before the injury, he completed two passes for a total of just 8 yards and threw the interception.

LSU/Alabama Clarifications and Preview

I’m not going to tell you who’s going to win the LSU-Alabama game or whether Alabama is likely to beat the spread.  There are plenty of people to do that.  However, there are some things some of those supposed experts have been getting wrong that I’d like to correct.

LSU did suffer injuries, but…

LSU is only down one member of the secondary who has played in the last month or so, Zy Alexander.  Some people are saying it’s four or five players.  It is that many cumulative going back to the offseason, but the Tigers struggled more when some of those players were playing than they are now.  So the idea that LSU is already terrible and now they’re likely getting a lot worse due to a slew of injuries that some people who are picking Alabama keep promulgating isn’t quite accurate. 

The Tigers will also miss lineman Mekhi Wingo, but that absence is the result of surgery for a nagging injury that had kept him from playing at full strength all season, and LSU’s front seven has been pretty decent (with some depth) since they settled on the 4-3 formation. Jordan Jefferson (see the next section if you’re confused) has been the standout this season, not Wingo.

Alabama is the healthier team, so if people just make that point and leave it at that, they’re not misleading you.

No College Starting QB Has Beaten Saban 2 in a Row Since…

There was report, I think circulated by ESPN, that last starting college quarterback to beat Nick Saban two years in a row was Drew Brees.  Brees even shared it on Twitter.  That would be a cute factoid, if it were true, especially given that Saban passed on a chance to bring Brees to Miami.  It was actually Rex Grossman, who easily beat the Tigers in both 2000 and 2001 as the Florida QB.  Brees might have been the last one who played the full game, but letting a backup play at some point doesn’t change who the starter was.  At any rate, it’s been over 20 years, so it would still be quite an accomplishment for Jayden Daniels.

Fun fact: This is not Rex Grossman.

Some LSU fans have mentioned Jordan Jefferson, the former LSU quarterback from 10-15 years ago (and older brother of Justin Jefferson), not the current defensive lineman. Jefferson didn’t start in 2011, so he doesn’t count; although he did help win the game… to the extent anyone on the offense deserves credit when only six points are scored in regulation.

Homefield Advantage?

There are a couple of interesting notes about the 2019 LSU team.  No SEC team has won in Tuscaloosa since then.  Obviously, I had to add the *SEC* qualifier because Texas won there this season.  I also wanted to mention that Alabama was favored by more points in that game than there are in this game.  I believe this is the fifteenth straight game in which Alabama has been favored against LSU, and this might be the smallest point spread over that time.  Also, the 2021 LSU team (our last trip there) was a relatively rare team who made it close in Tuscaloosa despite it being the first LSU team with a losing final record since 1999. 

I haven’t done anything with updating my rivalry blogs this year, but it has been a weird pattern over the years that LSU has typically done better at Alabama than they do against the Tide at home.  Neither record is great of course.  However, before 2019, LSU had lost three in a row in Tuscaloosa by at least 14 points in each game.  So it seemed like we were even losing that silver lining.

Joe Burrow takes off for a 19-yard run in Tuscaloosa on November 9, 2019. In the last two LSU wins over Alabama, Tiger QBs accounted for 734 combined yards. The 2019 win was LSU’s first over the Tide in 8 years. The 2022 win was LSU’s first home win over the Tide in 12 years.

A third consecutive strong showing in Tuscaloosa (and a fourth strong showing in five years overall against Alabama) would be a good sign even if it’s a loss.  I’m not looking for moral victories in advance (of course I was very happy about the actual victories in 2019 and 2022), but obviously you have a better chance to win games against a given team or in a given location if you have a habit of at least keeping such games close.  I think there is a psychological impact when you have a series of disappointing results in a given situation.  Even though there weren’t too many players in common, I think that 2019 team had something to do with the confidence with which LSU played last year (as well as 2021), and obviously I hope that continues. It’s also good to look for signs of an improving program (at least relative to Alabama, in this case) in the bigger picture.

Will the team who scored 10 points in 59 minutes against South Florida outscore the team who averages 44 points per game?

The fact that my answer is “quite possibly” means I’m not blowing off all criticisms of LSU’s defense or ignoring the quality of Alabama’s. It’s a little tongue in cheek because no one is actually asking this question, but similar silly questions are being asked to suggest LSU will lose. (By the way, the 44-point average does not count the Grambling game.)

Like I said earlier, I’m not going to tell you where to put your money if you’re into gambling, but I do want to go over some things to look for whether it’s out of financial interest or not. 

To pick up where I left off about the injuries, there are certainly some question marks on the LSU defense, don’t get me wrong; but the same is true of the Alabama offense especially.  I don’t understand how it’s OK to pretend all their ills are solved because their last half of football went well, but LSU’s defense is still what it was against Ole Miss (or worse), and LSU’s offense is still what it was against Florida St.  LSU was not playing a terrific Army team, but you can’t do better than a shutout as far as points are concerned.  They looked significantly better than they did against Grambling, and Army would probably blow out Grambling.

Anyway, in response to the Alabama predicters and supporters picking on the Florida St. and Ole Miss games, we could just as easily pretend Alabama’s offense is just as bad as it was against South Florida (who gave up more points to Florida A&M than they did to the Tide) and Alabama’s defense is just as bad as it was against Texas.  Another thing I realized was before the final drive that ended in a touchdown with 33 seconds left against the Bulls, Alabama had had more possessions (11) than points (10).

I don’t think any Alabama fan would have taken you seriously if you told him that Daniels would account for 277 yards in last year’s game after he only accounted for 139 against Auburn the month before, so I don’t think this fan habit of trying to cherry-pick stats from an earlier game to tell you what to expect in the next game is very reliable.  But to the extent it is, it can go both ways.

It’s true that LSU can’t rely on the defense to show up strong, especially not in the secondary.  LSU doesn’t have to have a terrific secondary for there to be some stops though.  Even though the Ole Miss game was historically bad defensively, LSU still got stops when there were long-yardage situations on second and third down.  Alabama has had a problem throughout the season in putting themselves in bad down-and-distance situations through sacks and penalties.

The Tide has succeeded on some deep shots, but I don’t think they’ve faced an offense (other than possibly Texas) that really penalized them for low-scoring halves like I think LSU can.  Bama does keep teams to relatively low scores, but LSU has been scoring in the upper 40s even in conference games.  Alabama has typically been allowing scores in the low 20s. 

I think LSU will likely score somewhere in the 30s, but that could mean LSU wins 38-24 or scores 31 and loses.  I’m not sure what Alabama’s upper limit is; but they did get up to 40 against Mississippi St., and I’m sure they weren’t desperate to score on every drive after they led 31-10 at the half.

If Alabama finds that kind of offense again and doesn’t let up, LSU could also conceivably lose by a couple of touchdowns.  I think LSU winning by a couple of touchdowns is slightly more likely, especially if they’re able to get up into the 40s and it doesn’t make strategic sense for Alabama to try to get points from their kicker.  LSU has a capable but less consistent kicker; so, if it’s a closer game, that could be an advantage for the Tide.

The Steele Curtain

Some Alabama fans have brought this up, and it’s legitimate enough to address it.  By far the best game plan against Joe Burrow was implemented by Kevin Steele when he was the coach of Auburn in 2019 and held LSU to 23 points, but there isn’t some magic that takes place just because the uniforms are the same.  Obviously, he can’t make his defenses consistently play that well, because this year’s Tennessee, Arkansas, and Texas A&M aren’t anywhere near the 2019 LSU team and all of them also scored in the low 20s against a Kevin Steele defense.  I think that’s a bit more relevant. 

Kevin Steele and Ed Orgeron at their introductory press conference before the 2015 season. 2015 was one of only two seasons since 2011 that Steele coached somewhere other than Auburn or Alabama.

Steele might be a genius in stopping what Coach O called “da Joe Brady offense,” but that’s not what Mike Denbrock runs.  This is much more of a ball-control offense than LSU was in 2019.  Even Saban has compared it to the triple option (2/3 of which involve a back taking the ball downfield).  Burrow could run when needed (see the picture above), but he didn’t run with the same ease as Daniels.  Clyde Edwards-Hellaire came through in the Auburn game I mentioned, but he had only averaged 78 yards per game before that even though LSU was often trying to run out the clock on large leads.  Logan Diggs has averaged 107 yards per game over the last four SEC games, so I don’t think it’s as tempting to see what LSU can do with runs and short passes.

Daniels doesn’t check down as much to the tight end Mason Taylor as last year (for obvious reasons), but he’s still there if Steele focuses on stopping long passes as he did in 2019.  TE Thad Moss had 7 receptions in 2019.  If Daniels throws it to Taylor that many times, he may go for 100 yards.  Also, Steele obviously doesn’t control the offense.  The boom-and-bust offense that Alabama runs now isn’t likely to minimize the LSU possessions as the Bo Nix Auburn offense did in 2019.

That’s all I have to say really about things to look for as far as X’s and O’s, but I did come across some other items worth addressing.

Common Opponent and Why Alabama is Favored

I’m sorry if what I’ve covered is not too illuminating about who’s going to win, but we could have made similar competing arguments last year (although the teams were more balanced), and the game went to overtime.  The reason the line is closer this time is that there wasn’t a recent common opponent that made Alabama look a lot better.  Last year, Alabama had lost to Tennessee by 3 on the road, and LSU had lost to Tennessee by 27 at home.  Both games were within the previous month.

There is a common opponent this season that Bama fans have brought up, and that’s Ole Miss.  One difference is both teams played the Rebels in September rather than October.  Alabama only beat them by 14, and LSU-Ole Miss came down to the final play (similarly to how Alabama-Tennessee ended last season, even though Ole Miss won by a couple more points).  It is a good point total if you add the two margins of victory together, but we aren’t talking about a close game versus a blowout.  Also, rather than homefield advantage magnifying the difference between Alabama and LSU vis-à-vis the common opponent, it’s a mitigating factor this year.  If they were focused on the common opponent, the gamblers this year would have Alabama favored by a lot more than 3 points, which is essentially just the home advantage (although maybe that’s only part of it in this case).  They’re basically telling us that what they’ve seen from these two teams is close to dead even in the aggregate. 

Another reason one might lean toward Alabama is they are the more proven team even if there weren’t one fewer loss.  They’ve played three teams that were in the top 20 at the time they played them and have won the last two (2-1 overall).  In between those two, they won a game in College Station (where LSU has lost three games in a row, by the way). LSU may finish with a better schedule, but the Tigers have already played their FCS opponent and have already played Auburn, which for now is not as good as Texas A&M. LSU is 0-2 against top 20 teams, although Missouri was #21 (AP; #22 Coaches) and has since improved to #12 (CFP).  These things do not tell us who will win matchups on the field, but there is something to be said for being tested.

SEC West Implications

I don’t want to imply that LSU is going to win this game not to mention win out, so I’ll start with saying if you’re an Alabama fan, you can book your tickets (or at least your hotel room) to Atlanta the second the game ends if they win. Alabama likely wouldn’t technically clinch though because theoretically Ole Miss can represent the West if the Rebels win out AND Alabama loses to Kentucky and Auburn.

But I did want to mention one other factual thing a lot of people are getting wrong.  LSU is still the favorite to win the West if they do win out even if Ole Miss beats Georgia.  Yes, Ole Miss would win a head-to-head tiebreaker, but head-to-head means it’s just those two teams.  I suspect Alabama will beat Kentucky and Auburn, so that would make it a three-way tie with all teams 1-1 against the other two.

I guess it would be fitting for the last SEC West title race to come down to games like… Missouri vs. Tennessee on November 11 in Columbia. The Volunteers won by 6 touchdowns in Knoxville last season; but their point total dropped by over 30 against Alabama from last season, so I wouldn’t look for a similar score this year against Mizzou.

I have a standalone blog ready if Ole Miss does beat Georgia (and no other relevant upsets take place) that will tell you everything you need to know, but for now just know a three-way tie (meaning LSU beats Alabama and no one else beats LSU, Alabama, or Ole Miss the rest of the season) will come down to whose SEC East opponents do best.  Ole Miss has already played Vanderbilt and will play Georgia; LSU has already played Missouri and will play Florida; and Alabama has already played Tennessee and will play Kentucky.  LSU’s opponents have the best combined record at the moment.

Week 5 Top 25 2023

My vacation has been over for more than a week, but I’m only about 1/5 of the way through adding results for an eventual computer rating, which I hope to have some semblance of by next week. Given that a team playing tonight is in my top 25, I couldn’t wait any longer to put up another subjective top 25.

LSU and Florida could well be among the best 25 teams; but consistent with my approach last week, I think if you have two losses right now, that’s too many to remain ranked. Also, either could seemingly lose several games by being unable to stop teams with any regularity when on defense.

Since Kentucky beat Florida easily and is undefeated, that seemed like a good option to take the Gators’ place. I haven’t thought Texas A&M was deserving of a ranking since last September; but in hindsight, the Aggies seem to have meaningfully improved from last year judging by the first couple of SEC games. Since their only loss is to U. Miami, who is undefeated, I thought it made sense to give the Hurricanes the final spot given that I’d decided it could not go to Florida or LSU.

Kentucky RB Ray Davis scored 4 touchdowns and ran for 280 yards against Florida in Lexington on Saturday.

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Georgia	2
3	Michigan	3
4	Texas	4
5	Southern CA	5
6	Penn St.	6
7	Florida St.	7
8	Oregon	8
9	Notre Dame	10
10	Alabama	11
11	Ole Miss	16
12	Washington	13
13	Kentucky	—
14	Washington St.	18
15	Oregon St.	25
16	Duke	14
17	Utah	9
18	UCLA	17
19	Oklahoma	24
20	Missouri	21
21	Kansas	20
22	Kansas St.	22
23	N Carolina	23
24	Tennessee	19
25	U. Miami	—

Out of Top 25: (12) LSU, (15) Florida

Week 2 Top 25 and SEC Thoughts

I’ve been accused of being an SEC homer in the past, but I’m not going to sugarcoat it.  There were two more disappointing results to add to the LSU loss in Week 1.  Neither was as bad as Utah, the defending and eventual Pac-12 champions, losing to a Florida team that wouldn’t even finish with a winning record last season. By SEC standards though, losing to a similarly-placed team in another conference as Alabama and Texas A&M did is still bad news. 

Texas A&M and Alabama

It was a doubly good weekend for Longhorns fans. I guess it will be OK in hindsight if Texas A&M finishes last in the SEC West and U. Miami is in the top half of the ACC, but chances are the Aggies will beat at least one competitive team this year (as they beat divisional champions LSU last season).  I think there is a limit to how low Alabama can fall, but if they’re third and Texas goes undefeated in the Big XII, maybe that loss will also be understandable in hindsight by the end of the year. Alabama could still win the national championship, but I’m just giving one scenario.

In Tuscaloosa, Ala., Saturday, Texas QB Quinn Ewers threw for 349 yards and 3 touchdowns, including the one above to Xavier Worthy in the second quarter.

Early Big Games Are Not Always Determinative

Like I discussed last week, sometimes a team just gets off to a rocky start and fixes the problems before getting exposed by a conference opponent.  This happened to Ohio St. in 2014 before winning the first College Football Playoff.  An SEC example happened in 2006, when Arkansas was embarrassed against USC, 50-14, before winning the SEC West.  2006 was when the 7-year run of SEC national titles began, so it wasn’t a sign of a weak league then.  USC went on to win the Rose Bowl, but not before losing as many Pac-10 games (2) as the Trojans had lost in the previous four seasons combined.

Putting A&M aside since I don’t think a lot of people picked them first or second in the SEC West, the fact that it happened to both LSU and Alabama is somewhat concerning.  As far as I can recall, there wasn’t a second such game in 2006 or the few years after by one of the top SEC teams. 

I also want to say I don’t agree with some people saying that this means Texas will be a top contender for SEC titles right away.  One game isn’t an 8- or 9-game SEC slate; and even though Texas should be an easy place to recruit, they probably will have less experience in key positions next season.  Also, without the divisional format, it isn’t likely they can make a championship game almost by default like Missouri did a couple of times.  Texas A&M, which joined at the same time as Mizzou, still has never made an SEC championship game despite typically having much better teams.

Ole Miss and LSU

Neither of the next two SEC West teams I’ll mention have gotten much of the flak for last week, but I’ll also be fair and say I wasn’t impressed by them either.

Also, Ole Miss should have appeared vastly superior to a Tulane team that is missing a lot of its talent from last season (when they still lost to Southern Mississippi and Central Florida despite the positive season overall) and was also playing without its starting quarterback.  The starting quarterback might not have made a difference of 17 points (the final margin of victory), but it easily could have made a 7-point difference.  That game would have been a lot different if Ole Miss had made a field goal to go up three points instead of ten with just under two minutes left.  If Tulane didn’t have the urgency of being down two possessions on the ensuing drive, the turnover that resulted in the final Ole Miss touchdown would have been less likely.

LSU was expected to beat Grambling by a big score and did so, but I still think it was a bad sign that it was 14-10 LSU at the end of the first quarter.  If Grambling hadn’t deferred after winning the toss, they would have had two different leads.  It’s not like the field goal was from 50 yards either.  It was a 23-yard field goal, so Grambling was close to scoring before stagnating in the red zone.  It shows you don’t even have to be an FBS talent to catch passes against LSU, you just have to be tall.  I’m sure there are some tall receivers in the SEC.  A few players got out of the backfield too easily too.

Nonetheless, if LSU manages to go to Starkville and get a win (more on that below), the other teams in the division could be beatable.  I think the Tigers also have a fairly favorable cross-divisional schedule with Florida (at home) and Missouri (on the road).

Mississippi St. and Auburn

I mentioned last week that the Pac-12 had not lost any games against other conferences in Week 1.  The one bit of good news from the SEC West is Mississippi St. and Auburn became the first two teams from other conferences to defeat Pac-12 opponents.  Cal and Arizona only had a combined five conference wins last season, but it’s not like Auburn was terrific either (2 conference wins by a combined 6 points).  Yes, I know LSU struggled on the Plains last year anyway; but LSU has struggled there in the past against weak Auburn teams (even in 2012).

It will also be interesting to see how hosting Arizona compares to hosting LSU from Mississippi St.’s perspective.

Mississippi St. QB Will Rogers, who has thrown the most completions in SEC history, runs the ball against Arizona in Starkville, Miss. He only threw 13 of those 1192 completions on Saturday despite the game going into overtime.

LSU/Mississippi St. Series

Even if LSU wins, it’s going to be bittersweet, to me at least.  2024 will be the first year that Mississippi St. will participate in an SEC season and not play LSU.  The first SEC season was in 1933, and the last regular season Mississippi St. played without playing LSU was 1925.  The only Tigers’ schedule that didn’t have the Bulldogs on it over that time was 1943, when Mississippi St. didn’t field a team. 

I don’t understand why they couldn’t keep the series going next season while they figure out what the permanent rotation will be, but of course no one asked me.  Next season, LSU will play Vanderbilt for the 33^rd time, South Carolina for the 23^rd time, and Oklahoma for only the fourth time.  I think somehow one of those (or even Florida or Arkansas) could have found someone else to play while LSU played Mississippi St. again. 

I will have more to say about this whenever I get around to updating the rivalry blog, but I want people to appreciate that much while the game is taking played.

LSU/Mississippi St. Preview

About the game itself, it might be a good thing for LSU that Mississippi St. has moved away from the air raid since I’ve made no secret of my lack of admiration for the LSU secondary so far.  By the way, I had to laugh during the week when LSU commentators who acted like the Tigers could somewhat easily handle the Seminoles and were good bets for the top 10 (if not top 5) acted like they agreed when Brian Kelly told the media that he knew it would be an area of concern.  I understand why he didn’t tell us, but why didn’t the LSU media tell us if they knew?  LSU has a well-paid PR department.  They don’t need volunteers masquerading as journalists. 

I hope I’m wrong, but I think I’d take the Bulldogs and the points at home anyway.  Based on what State did last week, I do give LSU the edge but not by much.  Just because Miss. St. didn’t throw it much last week doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t if they feel like that’s what LSU is giving them.  The LSU defensive backs can’t get taller in the next couple of days, but I’m hoping they do a better job at breaking up passes on throwing downs and that there is more of a rush to assist the pass defense than there was against Florida St.

if Mississippi St. is not able to generate much offense without the help of the turnovers which they relied on to win the last game, then it might be relatively easy to outscore them. In that case, this might result in LSU being conservative to try to preserve the lead. Something like 23-14 or 27-19 would still fail to beat the spread. If LSU has to try to go score for score, then it’s also unlikely the Tigers win by double digits.

General Blog and Rankings Comments

Before I post the Top 25, I did want to mention that I’m not completely confident about my posting schedule for the next couple of weeks since I have some traveling planned.  It will be done by the time I usually post my first computer ratings in early October though.  It’s also more difficult to post blogs of my usual quality while traveling.  Enjoy the pretty rankings chart below since you might not see it again for a little while.

This is already long, so I won’t explain any particular ranking decisions.  I’m still giving some credence to preseason rankings at this point; but when I transition into a purely computer-based system, all preseason bias will be removed.  This does not take place in major polls or committee rankings.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Georgia	2
3	Michigan	3
4	Florida St.	5
5	Texas	9
6	Southern CA	6
7	Penn St.	7
8	Notre Dame	11
9	Alabama	4
10	Utah	8
11	Oregon	13
12	LSU	15
13	Ole Miss	12
14	Tennessee	10
15	Duke	14
16	UCLA	19
17	Clemson	16
18	Kansas St.	17
19	Washington	18
20	Colorado	25
21	Oregon St.	21
22	Cincinnati	—
23	Central Fla.	—
24	N Carolina	20
25	Mississippi St.	22

Out of Top 25: (23) Pittsburgh, (24) Fresno St.

LSU @ Texas A&M Post Mortem

As I’ve done the last couple of weeks (including on Thursday), I’m going to wait until the College Football Playoff standings come out for detailed analysis of the remaining competitive teams (which of course no longer include Clemson or LSU), but you can see my ratings here.  I will comment briefly that I think it’s appropriate for a couple of different reasons for USC to be ahead of Ohio St. at the moment, so I commend the polls for coming to that conclusion as well and doing so decisively.

I’ve also updated the LSU-Texas A&M Rivalry Blog, which was first written before the 2010 Cotton Bowl.  Jimbo Fisher may have a worse record as Aggie head coach than Kevin Sumlin did overall, but he’s 3-2 against LSU compared to Sumlin’s 0-6 record.  It’s also the third time in those five games that the team with the better record lost on the road. 

Jimbo Fisher walks the sidelines as the LSU offensive coordinator before the BCS championship/Sugar Bowl in New Orleans in January 2004. He now has a winning record against his former employers.

I started writing this before the game ended, but I think there will be a few reactions to the LSU-Texas A&M game that aren’t accurate. (ESPN confirmed this this morning, saying “Jimbo Fisher EXPOSES LSU” in the headline of their YouTube video about the game. If the title is something that low-IQ, I don’t even click on it.  So I’m not making a point-by-point rebuttal, but I will elaborate more below.)

I don’t think it was trap game or that LSU was looking ahead.  It was the next major-conference opponent for two weeks.  Yes, there was a big game coming up against Georgia; but the players knew they had some things to clean up after the Arkansas game.  Texas A&M had beaten Arkansas earlier in the year after all.  The Aggies had suffered some injuries since then, but so had Arkansas.  Everyone knew it was a talented, dangerous team.  This isn’t a coaching staff that would have distracted the team with an early preview of Georgia (Kelly confirmed this with the media), and winning the game yesterday would have actually taken a weight off of them.  Maybe you shock the world, but even if you don’t you have a great bowl game no one expected you to be in to fall back on.  Now that’s in doubt.

My impression is that it was the opposite of looking past the opponent.  I think some of the LSU players were too nervous and playing not to lose.  It’s easy to feel unease in a hostile environment.  If there were some consideration of A&M’s record, I definitely think the thought was more, “How much would it suck if we lost to a team with that record?” than “Forget all the great athletes they have, we’ll beat A&M easily because their record isn’t good.”  

Playing not to lose was cited by multiple people as why Alabama lost to Tennessee, and I got a similar vibe here.  I think that is a more frequent problem with the top teams than “looking ahead”.  The Tigers also seemed like they were playing tight against Arkansas, and they weren’t looking ahead three weeks.  Arkansas just didn’t have the athletes (or they weren’t playing well enough that day) to capitalize.

I would cite a combination of rivalry, revenge (for last season when LSU won with the lesser team), and wanting to take out an overachieving team that was possibly in position to make the playoff without a loss.  Also, they knew it was the last chance to play a game for several months (or ever in some cases).  It doesn’t make up for how badly A&M underachieved of course, but there is only so much you can do in one game.

Yes, A&M was up three touchdowns midway through the fourth quarter (I’ll get to the circumstances below), and I think some will say LSU didn’t “show up,” but a game getting away from you doesn’t mean you never showed up.  I told Tennessee fans the same thing when some of them said that after the South Carolina loss.

LSU RB John Emery, Jr., scores the tying touchdown early in the third quarter in College Station yesterday. Emery would only finish with 55 yards from scrimmage but scored all three of LSU’s touchdowns (at least the ones that counted).

In the second half, LSU started with two three-and-outs on defense and a touchdown on offense to tie the game.  I wouldn’t say everything had gone according to plan, but that was a more comfortable position than LSU had had at a similar point in most of the previous games against major-conference opponents.  After three drives of the third quarter against Florida St., LSU was down 17-3.  At the same point against Mississippi St., LSU was down 16-10.  At the same point at Auburn, LSU was down 17-14.  At the same point against Ole Miss, LSU had just scored to get to make it 24-20 Rebels. LSU was also way down against Tennessee, but that was the only one LSU didn’t either lose as a result of a blocked extra point or win. I guess one problem was only one of those situations had taken place on the road, so this was more difficult.  LSU had some luck against Auburn that they didn’t have here.

Going back to this game in the third quarter, LSU had withstood the A&M rally and was in position to take the lead (and to take the crowd out of it) with another good drive.  With the ball and a 17-17 score, LSU gained six yards on first down.  That was more than they had gained on any first down in the previous drive (which ended in a touchdown), and the Tigers had only had to convert one third down.  But in two plays all of that momentum was reversed.  The Tigers were forced into a third down.  It was a third and one, which seemed like no big deal given what I said about some prior plays that half, but Daniels made what appeared to be a bad decision not to hand the ball off and tried to roll out.  He fumbled as he was hit trying to get around the end, and A&M returned the fumble for a touchdown.

LSU QB Jayden Daniels picks himself up from the turf as DB Demani Richardson is about to return Daniels’s fumble for a touchdown to give the Aggies back the lead, which they would not relinquish again.

It also didn’t help that LSU’s attempted comeback was thwarted by what I think was a completely incorrect call on the field in the last three minutes, but it still would have been unlikely for the Tigers to come up with another touchdown, a two-point conversion, and at least one other point after.  If that’s called a touchdown and there is no fumble, that’s nearly the entire difference in the game though. 

This isn’t sour grapes or blaming the refs for the loss, but this is something that has annoyed me for a long time even if it’s not against my team.  I think if you have the ball secured against your chest and your feet land in the end zone, that should be a catch, the play should be over, and nothing else should enter the equation.  In this situation, WR Jaray Jenkins also took two steps out of bounds with the ball secure.  It’s bad enough if the player then goes to the ground in the end zone, but it’s absurd to even talk about what happens on the edge of the turf as he’s avoiding people on the sidelines, but he did eventually go to the ground and drop the ball.  I’ve seen players toss the ball up in the air or spike it after demonstrating far less control over the ball.  This whole “surviving the ground” thing is nonsense in that situation. 

It’s the equivalent of a baseball catcher tagging someone out and then falling and dropping the ball on the way to the dugout.  Or an even better analogy would be a basketball player calls timeout as he’s going out of bounds and then drops the ball when he lands on someone’s lap, so the timeout doesn’t count because he retroactively didn’t have possession.

Rant over.  My point is it really was a close game, not that playing a 7-loss team close is something to brag about; but it wasn’t in reality all that different from the previous conference game.  I don’t think LSU was exposed or embarrassed or anything of the sort, just not the better team that day and certainly not the team that got more breaks. 

I noted the live stats as of the end of the third quarter, so it’s not the official three-quarter stats, but it’s close enough.  At that point, LSU had about 50 more yards in the air (but more incompletions) and about 50 fewer yards on the ground.  This included most of the Texas A&M drive that resulted in the Aggies going up two scores, so LSU was generally the better team before the fumble.  The one weakness in the stats was the third-down performance on both sides of the ball.  Four of 9 wasn’t bad for LSU’s offense, but giving up 7 of 10 to the other team is terrible, especially if they got a touchdown on one of your OFFENSIVE third downs. 

Speaking of third downs, another key play I wanted to highlight took place after the start of the fourth quarter.  LSU still had a decent chance of coming back as they were only down 14 with 11:30 to play and had forced a third and six from the A&M 27.  The Aggie quarterback Conner Wiegman threw deep downfield to WR Moose Muhammad III, who could not have been covered better, and even threw a little bit behind him.  But partly due to Muhammad’s timing in reacting to the ball, it came down right between him and LSU safety Sage Ryan even though both players were touching one another as the ball arrived (it was correct not to call interference either way).  The ball even touched Ryan’s fingertips as Muhammed was hauling it in. 

I couldn’t find a picture of the play I was talking about, but this was just a couple of plays later: another great catch by A&M WR Moose Muhammad, III, who finished with 94 receiving yards. His right arm may be extending a little bit too much, but it’s still a great catch; you also can’t fault Sage Ryan on this play either.

I knew the fumble-touchdown had been a dangerous turn in momentum (Brian Kelly said after the game, “That momentum swing, I don’t know that we ever recovered from it”), but that’s in hindsight.  It didn’t seem insurmountable in the moment.

That catch, though, gave me a strong conviction that it was not going to be our night.  I’m rarely that discouraged in a two-possession game with over 11 minutes left, but I think it was warranted.  If we couldn’t stop them despite covering a receiver that well, we weren’t going to be able to stop them.  At least not enough to outscore them by two touchdowns the rest of the way.

I do want to elaborate on why I think saying LSU was exposed was a low-IQ take.  A good example was 2018, when Ohio St. had beaten unranked opponents by an average score of 51.4 to 16, and the only team that had stayed within single digits of the Buckeyes was a top-ten Penn St. team in Happy Valley.  Then Ohio St. loses to unranked Purdue 49-20.  That’s exposed. 

“Exposed” is not when a two-loss team shows problems it had shown all year (slow start on offense, giving up a large number of rushing yards on defense) but unable to make up for it in other areas on that particular night. LSU gave up 222 rushing yards to Florida, and the Gators were playing from behind (and therefore less inclined to run than they normally would be) the entire second half.  Texas A&M never trailed, so it’s not surprising that they did even better.  The Aggies did end up on the wrong side of a couple more games, largely due to injuries of key players; but they’re not a dramatically different team than Florida is.  Exposing an opponent isn’t confirming a weakness that other similar teams have exploited in the past.

Also, if any exposing was done, it wasn’t Jimbo Fisher doing it.  Two of the plays I highlighted were defensive plays, and the offensive play (or plays if you include the touchdown in the picture) was a great individual effort by Muhammad. It wasn’t a brilliant call or a great pass.  Without that catch, the Aggie offense would have had only two touchdown drives against three three-and-outs in the final 50 minutes of game play.  You’d like them to have zero touchdowns over that span of course, but that’s not being exposed by the other team’s play-caller.

Anyway, I think most reasonable people predicted 8 wins or fewer for LSU, maybe 10 on the high end after a bowl game, so having 9 going into the game is still something to be very proud of.  Most people predicted more wins for Texas A&M. I actually wish we didn’t have to play Georgia, but there is a chance something crazy could happen.  I thought LSU was going to get blown out by Tennessee in 2001 (the last time LSU made the SEC championship game with three losses), but they weren’t.  Regardless, for a team that was so out of it 11 months ago that they barely had enough players to play an embarrassing Texas Bowl to get to #5 in late November was impressive.

The College Football Playoff Picture with Two Games Left

I wanted to start by saying happy Thanksgiving. I thought it was best to get this out today since there is only one game, which is probably not of crucial importance.

Because they have been so dominant until now, Georgia is the only one-loss team I can see finishing ahead of either LSU with two wins in the final games or USC with two wins in the final games.  The loser of Ohio St.-Michigan will not have anything on their resume similar to Georgia’s wins over Oregon and Tennessee.  It could be an interesting argument if TCU loses or if both LSU and USC lose though. I don’t automatically discount non-champions (even with the same number of losses), but I believe they should be looked at more skeptically.

Strength of Schedule

I touched on this last week, but something that many basic fans either don’t grasp or don’t bother to look into is how much schedules vary.  Most conferences are not like the Big XII where it’s a pure round robin; but even in the Big XII, there are still three non-conference games.

I wanted to go over who is on the schedule of the following teams that have a realistic chance at the playoff.  I’ll go over the top four teams of the respective conferences and the biggest non-conference game.  I’ll mention TCU last because I think most people’s sense of their schedule is accurate.

LSU: Georgia (plays December 3), Alabama (win), Tennessee (loss), Ole Miss (win), Florida St. (loss).

Georgia: LSU (plays December 3), Alabama (did not play), Tennessee (win), Ole Miss (did not play), Oregon (win).

USC: Oregon (not played; possible conference championship opponent {NPPCCO}), Washington (NPPCCO), Utah (loss), UCLA (win), Notre Dame (play on Saturday).

Ohio St.: Michigan (plays Saturday), Penn St. (win), Iowa (win, may play again), Purdue (NPPCCO), Notre Dame (win).

Michigan: Ohio St. (plays Saturday), Penn St. (win), Iowa (win, may play again), Purdue (NPPCCO), Connecticut (win).

Clemson: North Carolina (plays December 3), Florida St. (win), Pitt (did not play), Duke (did not play), Notre Dame (loss).

TCU has beaten the following: Kansas St., Texas, Oklahoma St., Baylor, and Texas Tech.  Out of conference, the best win was over 6-5 SMU.  As I discussed in the last blog, the Horned Frogs will play either Kansas St. or Texas for a second time in the championship game. 

Former walk-on Stetson Bennett IV (pictured above throwing on the run against Florida in Jacksonville last month) helped lead Georgia to its first national championship since 1980 and has the Bulldogs well-positioned for another.

Early Resume Comparison

I’m not making predictions about the remaining games, but I’ll discuss the teams as if I’m comparing them at the end of the season.  For instance, if I say LSU will have beaten Georgia, what I’m talking about is the only scenario in which LSU is a contender. I don’t expect LSU to come particularly close to beating Georgia.

The committee does not consider the wins a team would have at the end of the year, or Clemson and USC would be higher.  Those are the only two above who have two really decent opponents left.  I think it’s harder to have to win successive games like that.  Even moreso with USC because it would be three strong wins in a row: UCLA, Notre Dame, and then the #2 Pac-12 team.

If Iowa beats Nebraska, which is highly likely, LSU and TCU will be the only teams to have played every other top-five team of their respective conference.  I do think the quality of LSU’s top opponents would make up for the extra loss if TCU were to lose a game.

I know it doesn’t seem like either Big Ten team would be missing a big resume bullet point by not playing Purdue, but Purdue has one fewer loss than Illinois, which led Michigan with about one second left on the clock last week.  Also, if you’re not really missing any competition by not playing one of the top five teams of your 14-team conference, that doesn’t say much about your conference schedule.

As I suggested, I’ll be impressed by USC if the Trojans manage to win the next two weeks, and I would not be bitter about it if they were to edge out LSU.  I tip my hat to the committee for having LSU #5 right now.  I think it shows they understand the lists above, and if the last two games barely put USC ahead of LSU, so be it. 

That’s not to say I don’t think LSU would have an argument.  One key point is USC’s loss thus far.  Utah lost to a mediocre SEC team and beat USC.  That suggests to me that USC would have more than one conference loss if they played at least four teams who finished higher in the SEC than Florida did.

This comparison only takes place if LSU wins, so we would either have an SEC non-champion having blown out USC’s best win at the beginning of the year or we would have USC avoiding one of the more dangerous teams in its conference.

Teams Who May Lose Late and Be Considered; Why Clemson Might Deserve a Spot if They Do

Putting LSU aside, Ohio St. would be a very interesting contender if they lose to Michigan.  I think they would compensate for having two fewer games against the Big Ten West as a result of the non-conference game against Notre Dame.  This argument becomes even stronger if USC is knocked out of the running by Notre Dame.

Ohio St. WR Emeka Egbuka stretches for a touchdown against Notre Dame in September in Columbus. Although the Irish have had a couple of ugly losses since then, this still may be a key win for the Buckeyes.

One-loss Michigan would be a poor contender against anyone but a one-loss TCU though.  I know Connecticut beat Liberty and became bowl-eligible, but Connecticut is not a good team.  TCU is the only team in this discussion with a similar lacking best non-conference opponent.

Maybe the committee disagrees, but I would prefer a one-loss Clemson to a one-loss Michigan.  The ACC wouldn’t be the reason, but playing two non-conference opponents with the kind of quality wins that South Carolina and Notre Dame have would make the difference for me. It would be two good non-conference opponents to zero.

As I discussed in the previous blog, one reason I give Clemson more credit so far than others do is if you play a series of let’s call them high-medium teams (not ranked but above average) such as Louisville and Wake Forest, you’re still exposing yourself to risk of a loss to a higher degree with each game.  Just ask Tennessee and Ole Miss.  They didn’t show signs of being vulnerable to teams like that over the previous month or two, but they got to the point of playing too many teams that were high-medium or better and apparently didn’t get up enough for every one. 

On the other hand, based on the above, you can imagine what the committee has probably said.  Even if these other teams are in equal conferences (the ACC is probably the worst of the bunch), Clemson has only played one team in the top five of its conference, and they lost to the only team they’ve played so far who would be in the top five of their conference.  

This conversation would probably only come up in seeding, but I wanted to address it anyway.  Some are assuming that Georgia will definitely be ahead of LSU even if they lose to the Tigers, but I’m not so sure.  If Georgia had to play Alabama and Ole Miss, it’s certainly possible they’d be entering the championship with a loss.  Right now, I think the non-conference game against Oregon resolves any doubt; but it becomes a more open question if both Oregon and Florida St. have three losses at the end of the season.  This wouldn’t matter in my ratings, but obviously how that SEC championship game plays out would influence this discussion.