I’m going to do another blog after this about what to expect when Alabama has the ball, but for now I’m going to talk about the line and what to expect from the LSU offense.
I remember some disappointing Alabama games (see series blog for more), but even mediocre LSU teams have come within a touchdown in recent years, especially at home. In fact, LSU hasn’t lost by more than 10 points to Alabama at home since 2002, when a man named Nick Saban coached the Tigers to a 31-point mauling at the hands of Dennis Franchione’s Tide. That was also the last time Alabama scored more than 21 in regulation in Baton Rouge.
I also wanted to mention that the last time a top-5 team was a 14-point underdog at home, both the favored team and the loser of that game was Alabama. You might remember a certain Iron Bowl game in 2013.
So the 14.5-point early line makes it mighty tempting to take LSU. One recent Alabama game (on the road though) gives me a little pause: the Tide won by 21 in 2013 (the season I just mentioned), but it was a tied game with under 5 minutes left in the third quarter. I think that was the only recent game with a similar offensive production on both sides as I’d expect here. Other than that game and the 2011 BCS Championship, every other LSU-Alabama game since that 2002 result I mentioned was decided by fewer than 14.5 points. In short, a closer game seems more likely than not.
LSU was able to relax for the last quarter or so of a few games; but Auburn and Florida went down to the end, and LSU only really had a few minutes of leisure against the two Bulldog teams (Miss. St. ended the game theoretically within two possessions, and LSU was only up 13 against Georgia until about 4 minutes left). I don’t think given Alabama’s inexperience in such games that they would do what they did in 2013 though.
On LSU’s side, Georgia was favored by 8.5 in early betting, and LSU won by 20 at home. A few weeks before, Auburn was favored by 10, and LSU won by 1 on the road. In the first game, Miami was favored by 3.5, and LSU won by 16 in Arlington. So this wouldn’t be the first time that the Tigers out-performed expectations this season; and if LSU wins, it will be the third time they did so by more than two touchdowns.
I’ll discuss it more in the next blog, but the best teams I’ve followed in the last 27 or so years of really paying attention have been tested at some point. The most consistently dominant team I remember was Nebraska in 1995 (I’ll talk more about them next blog), but even they had a game against an unranked team at home that they could only win by 14.
LSU’s results against Auburn and Georgia also help my argument that this will most likely be the toughest game for Alabama. LSU also beat Mississippi St., who plays the Tide on November 9. Both that game and Auburn will be home games for the Tide, and the Georgia game (if it happens) would be in Atlanta with about half the audience on Alabama’s side.
In the last blog, I mentioned that it hurt Alabama in the computer that Texas A&M lost to Mississippi St. It also hurts the real-life argument that the Tide really has been tested. Alabama only had one extra score on the Aggies than Mississippi St. did (they won by 22 points rather than 15 points), although Texas A&M was in the Mississippi St. game a good bit longer. Texas A&M justifiably fell out of the coaches poll and is now 25th in the AP poll. Despite the Tigers’ loss to now-#13/14 Florida, playing LSU is a significant step beyond a #25-to-30 type of team.
The Alabama media, despite in many cases claiming it will be an easy game anyway, seems to agree that this will be the toughest test of the regular season. I know they don’t think in unison; that was just a good example.
I think Nick Saban made a good point on Monday that you can’t really apply the statistics from earlier to the Tide’s schedule going forward. This is especially true on offense given that the A&M team I mentioned doesn’t have much of a defense.
Saban was complimentary of Burrow as he tries to be of every upcoming opponent, but if you’ve been following LSU you could imagine that he was leaving out. I’m going to leave out the ellipses, but I thought these were the key sentences about him: “Their quarterback play is well-formed. They’ve got good receivers. [Burrow] has been, I think a very very effective player. He’s a good passer. He’s athletic enough to pull the ball and run it They’ve got some very very good receivers.”
Saban also said LSU has the ability to be explosive in the passing game, which is true, but he didn’t even give Burrow one “very” when calling him a good passer. The full sentence in my head ended with “but he’ll be lucky if he completes half his passes.” Saban didn’t say anything about Burrow knowing when to step up in the pocket or throw the ball away when there is a pass rush outside of his field of vision. Maybe I’m cynical by nature (or maybe I’ve listened to Saban point out problems with own teams often enough), but when I hear a coach talk about what can go right on the very best plays, I think of what can go wrong on the plays that aren’t so good.
Like this year, the best opponent Alabama had faced before the LSU game last year was Texas A&M. Although A&M may be better this year than last year, I think last year was better preparation for LSU because playing A&M on the road was probably a good approximation to playing LSU at home. I don’t think you can make the same argument about the reverse this year.
In Alabama’s five SEC games before LSU last year, they gave up an average of 7.6 points, or about 2 ½ less than LSU scored. The average points given up in those games this year? 18.4.
Last year the SEC average for the Tigers was about 22 points (1 fewer game though), and this year it was 28 points. So whether you want to say Alabama will give up 11 more or LSU will score 6 more, I think if it were a similar game plan and similar circumstances, LSU would score between 16 and 21.
I think this year’s game being at home puts LSU’s upper limit more into the upper 20s (maybe even 30 or 31) than lower 20s though. In Alabama’s two road games against ranked teams last year (then-#16 Mississippi St. and then-#6 Auburn), the Tide gave up 24 and 26 points, respectively. As I think I’ve demonstrated, this Alabama defense isn’t as good as that one (though they can partly blame the offense for scoring faster).
I think LSU can only get above about 31 if something weird like the Georgia game happens (basically along with LSU playing them harder than anyone else has, the Alabama offense hurts itself a lot more than it has before and puts more pressure on the defense). On the other hand, if the LSU offense hurts itself more than usual (basically if it looks like it did after the first drive and a half against Florida) and lets Alabama hold onto the ball most of the game, you could see LSU’s score going below the mid-teens and possibly into the single digits.
So I think the best to look at how you get there is that LSU will have to score about the top 45% of its range of points, and Alabama will have to score in the bottom 45% of its range out points for LSU to win (just to throw out a number, maybe 25 or more). I’ll talk about the range for Alabama next time. I might even give a guess as to the final score.
Alabama, Appalachian St., Buffalo, Clemson, College Football, Florida, Fresno St., Georgia, Georgia Southern, Kentucky, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Ohio St., Oklahoma, SEC, top25, Washington St.
Top 25 after Week 9
In College Football, General LSU, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on October 28, 2018 at 1:14 PMClemson moved into the computer #1 as I thought they might this week. Louisville is really bad, so Clemson won’t gain much next week. To give myself an educated guess as to how much Alabama could add to their score, I looked at how much Georgia moved up this week. They moved up 6 spots and about 0.18 in points. LSU with an extra loss right now would count for about 10% more than Florida, which roughly matches how far Alabama is behind Clemson. It may depend on prior opponents (and opponents’ opponents, but those stats are less volatile) of both Alabama and Clemson. It’s a virtual certainly that LSU would have enough points to be #1 with the win regardless of any combination of outcomes in other games.
LSU actually gained slightly in points in the off week, which kept the Tigers ahead of Notre Dame. Mississippi St.’s win over Texas A&M helped LSU, and that also hurt Alabama’s score slightly to make it more difficult for the Tide to overtake Clemson. Anyway, just a reminder that the computer is going to dictate everything starting next week.
Texas A&M was one of 10 top-25 teams on my list to lose this week, so there are definitely some changes. I feel slightly vindicated by some of the results, not that I had teams predicted to win, but more that I wasn’t overrating them as much as the major polls. I didn’t have Texas A&M very high, only 21st, and even lower the week before. I didn’t have Oregon close to being ranked. Appalachian St. was in my top 40 but not all that far ahead of the Georgia Southern team that beat them. South Florida was also in my top 40 but not top 25. Most people had Texas ranked ahead of Oklahoma, but I didn’t. I had Wisconsin a few spots lower than most.
A few of the major-poll top-25 teams who lost were in the Pac-12. It seems like almost anyone in the Pac-12 can beat almost anyone else. The only one-loss possibility left is Washington St., and the Cougars can’t usually keep the point production going consistently enough to maintain that. Even if they pull it off and there is a series of upsets, it’s going to be very difficult given that Wazzu’s nonconference schedule consisted of Wyoming (well below average this year), San Jose St. (a terrible team), and Eastern Washington (a good FCS team).
It’s close to certain that the SEC champion will be in the top 4. The ACC and Big Ten both seem likely to contribute a team. Notre Dame is going to be in the mix as long as they’re undefeated, but I think if the Irish lose they may fall behind Oklahoma and perhaps a second SEC team.
Speaking of the SEC, there is a divisional championship game between Georgia and Kentucky next week along with the LSU-Alabama game. Alabama would clinch at least a share of the SEC West title with a win whereas LSU would only clinch a winning SEC record and would still need to win two more games (against Arkansas and Texas A&M).
I wanted to mention that Buffalo (which was ranked for the first time last week) and Georgia Southern are the 91st and 92nd teams to appear in my rankings list since I started it over 20 years ago (although for about the first 10 years it was mostly just for myself). Last year I had said Florida Atlantic was #89, but I’d left out a team (Appalachian St.) when counting, so they were really #90. So there are still 38 more teams that need to find their way on there one of these years.
Out of Top 25: (17) Duke, (20) San Diego St., (21) Texas A&M, (22) Virginia, (24) Wisconsin