Final Thoughts on Brian Kelly Going to LSU

Before I begin, I wanted to note I’ve updated my ratings in light of the Army-Navy game and recent FCS results.

I have gone into detail about how I understand the Brian Kelly hiring came about and why Notre Dame isn’t some horribly aggrieved party, but I haven’t really gone into what I think of the hire.

A lot of LSU fans were dismayed that we didn’t hire a 30-something offensive-minded coach who throws the ball around.  Everyone wants the next Sean McVay even though he’s only won three NFL playoff games in his life, and one was the controversial NFC championship game against the Saints.  Hunt Palmer, one of the LSU commentators I actually respect and listen to, said he’s “infatuated” with young coaches like that.  You can imagine what the people I hold in less esteem have been saying.  Basically, they think if you have a modern passing game, it doesn’t matter what kind of defense or line or player development or organization you have.

Are Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban really similar to McVay? Dabo was a young offensive-minded coach when he started, but he joined Clemson’s staff when McVay was 16 and became Clemson’s head coach when McVay was 22.  He was not some cutting-edge offensive wizard teaching all the old fogeys the error of their ways.  He was hired by Tommy Bowden after all.  Even if you still think Dabo is along the same lines as McVay, why aren’t Saban and Belichick, two older defensive coaches, better examples to follow?  Kelly was a defensive coach before was an offensive coach, by the way.  I’m not an NFL expert, but I’d also argue there are some possible analogies between Kelly and Andy Reid, who hadn’t won a Super Bowl as head coach before going to Kansas City.

For reasons I don’t quite understand, Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay has been seen as the prototype hire in both college and professional football since being hired shortly before his 31st birthday in 2017.

I do accept that a national championship is an item missing from Kelly’s resume (McVay doesn’t have a Super Bowl title either), but let’s look at the other national championship coaches of the last 20 years and see if they’re better.  Larry Coker (2001) kept U. Miami going strong for two years but ran it into the ground after that.  Jim Tressel (2002) has been out of coaching since 2010 and won on another controversial interference call.  You know who Nick Saban (2003, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2020) and Pete Carroll (2004) are, but they’re obviously not available, not to mention both being over 70.  Mack Brown (2005) has had mediocre results (and a six-year hiatus) since losing the BCS national championship to Alabama in 2009. 

As mentioned, I think being 30-40 is overrated, but that doesn’t mean we should hire someone over 70.  Urban Meyer (2006, 2008, and 2014) is coaching in Jacksonville and didn’t seem interested in any college job.  We gave Les Miles (2007) enough chances to try to bring back the magic of 2007 and 2011.  Not too unlike Brown, Chizik (2010), Fisher (2013), and Orgeron (2019) became mediocre fairly quickly after their respective championships, costing Chizik and Orgeron (respectively) their jobs within two years.  Fisher made a lateral move to Texas A&M, where, except for the COVID-shortened year, the mediocrity has continued.  More on Fisher in a moment.

Dabo (2016 and 2018) would have been the best choice among prior champions in my opinion, but he wasn’t coming either.  Obviously he’s still second to Saban among active college coaches, but I think rebuilding a program and seeing it through is the task of someone younger. 

That brings up another issue.  Some LSU fans apparently think we can just apply a couple of band-aids and 2019 will just emerge again.  You can’t win recruits over Alabama and Texas A&M and other regional rivals when you go .500 and can’t find a coordinator on either side.  Dave Aranda came to coach for Les Miles in 2016, but Orgeron showed no ability to find someone similar on either side of the ball (the defensive coordinator he hired in the offseason showed some promise in November but was either unready or over-supervised before).  Steve Ensminger did a good job with a field full of talent (and with the help of analyst Joe Brady in 2019); but again, he came from Miles’s staff, and there was no indication Orgeron could find someone similar.  Ensminger demoted himself to analyst going into this season.

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, it was fortunate that Orgeron took over when he did and that as many Miles holdovers and Miles recruits stayed on as they did.  If it weren’t for the recruits that came after 2018 and 2019, there would be very little of value to hold onto.  It would be a rebuild similar to Saban’s rebuild of LSU in 2000.  Maybe someone like Mel Tucker would have been the next Saban (LSU hired Saban from the same school where Tucker works), but that would have been a gamble.  Tucker was paid very well to stay anyway.  It seems Notre Dame had no intention of paying Kelly anything similar to what the top coaches make now.

New LSU head coach Brian Kelly acknowledges the crowd at his welcoming festivities on November 30 in Baton Rouge.

I just really don’t see how LSU could have done any better.  I mentioned how I feel about Jimbo.  While I covered how I feel about coaches of similar background, I didn’t mention Lincoln Riley specifically.  Riley didn’t have to rebuild anything at Oklahoma.  He continued what Bob Stoops was already doing, and he even had Stoops there for support.  Imagine Saban had been at LSU since 2000, retired, and stayed on to help with the next coach.  His advice could have helped someone like Orgeron have a long, successful career with LSU.  Riley might do well at USC, but it’s really uncertain how he can do on his own when inheriting a 4-8 team rather than an 11-2 team as he did at Oklahoma.  He’s part of a series of young offensive-minded Trojan head coaches.  Even if he is successful, it won’t be proof that that’s a great model to follow. 

Riley did make the national semifinals in each of his first three seasons, but the fourth year is when it fully becomes your team.  There are still some players recruited by the previous staff, but at that point the old staff did little to develop those players, and they’re usually a small minority of those who are playing.  The Sooners started 1-2 last year and then went 1-2 against ranked teams this year.  The only reason they got the one win was due to how vastly overrated Texas was, and the Sooners needed a big comeback to even win that game.  They also struggled against Tulane, West Virginia, Kansas St., and Kansas.  Obviously, struggling to a 10-2 record is much better than what LSU has done for the last two years, so I wouldn’t have been upset with a Riley hire; but I would have deeper concerns than I do with Kelly.  Also, given the struggles with teams who were ranked, I don’t even know if Riley would have done better than Orgeron’s 2-5 record against ranked teams this year.  I also don’t know how he would handle facing six ranked teams in a row as LSU did.

Riley’s performance doesn’t compare to Kelly’s taking over a program that went 15-23 over its last 38 games and then winning 74% of his games over 12 seasons as Kelly did.  Even within his time there, Kelly was also on the upswing.  Rather than becoming less competitive, Notre Dame was becoming more competitive.  The Irish finished in top five of the College Football Playoff for the third time in four years and finished with double-digit wins for the fifth year in a row.  By contrast, Kelly had only had double-digit wins twice in his first seven years. 

In the 16 years before Kelly, there were only 2 seasons with double-digit wins (both with exactly 10 wins), by the way.  So I’m not saying we have to wait seven years before LSU is going to be nationally competitive on a regular basis.  In the last 16 years, by contrast, LSU has had 8 seasons with 10 or more wins and 5 seasons with 11 or more wins. 

Another line of thinking that bothered me was Kelly just not being a “good fit” with the “culture”.  That could mean a couple of different things, but neither one checks out.  If I were a USC fan, being consistent with the recent football culture would be a bad thing, and I feel the same way as an LSU fan.  I enjoyed some of the cartoonish aspects of Les Miles and Coach O, but it’s time for something a little more serious.  Kelly does seem a little warmer than Saban or Urban Meyer, but that isn’t saying much.  I think Fisher and Dabo are more likeable from the press conferences, but I don’t know how they compare behind the scenes.  Regardless of personality, I’d rather wins result from an organized plan than be a result of almost haphazard luck that Orgeron and Miles seemed to tap into. 

Let’s not pretend Les Miles or Nick Saban were comparing notes on gumbo and boudin recipes when they arrived at LSU either. Les was from Ohio and had coached college only in the Big Ten, Big 8, and Big XII.  A coastal person might think Saban being from West Virginia places him somewhere close to Louisiana culture, but I can assure you it does not.  Also, Saban (like Kelly) had spent nearly his whole coaching career in the Midwest before going to LSU (even the exceptions of West Virginia and Syracuse are both pretty close to Pennsylvania and Ohio).  Saban had also played college ball in the Midwest.

LSU athletic director Scott Woodward (pictured at his first press conference in April 2019) has not been afraid to make waves in his first 20 months on the job.

Another weird reaction was that based on age he’s not a typical Scott Woodward hire.  Woodward did hire baseball coach Jay Johnson, who is 44; but the first candidate he submitted to the board was Kevin O’Sullivan, who is almost 10 years older.  Another candidate who was widely reported as under consideration was Pat Casey, who is 62.  Men’s basketball coach Will Wade is young, but he was not hired by Woodward.  First-year women’s basketball coach Kim Mulkey is 59.  Mulkey comes off as more intense and less conservative than Kelly, but there is no reason to believe age limits either one.  At Texas A&M, Woodward hired Fisher, who was then 52 (reportedly, 4 years later, Fisher was Woodward’s first choice as LSU head coach). 

I think Woodward is more about extensive championship-level experience than age.  Fisher’s teams only played for one national championship (which the Seminoles won) as head coach, but he coached in the 2003 championship as offensive coordinator at LSU and contributed in both recruiting and development to the Tigers’ championship in 2007, which took place his first year away from Baton Rouge after he had been there seven years.  The Seminoles had also lost in the semifinals in 2014.  O’Sullivan coached in two national championships, winning one; and Casey and Mulkey had multiple national championships.  Woodward ultimately couldn’t get a championship baseball coach, but Johnson was the head coach of the National Runners-up in 2016 and returned to the College World Series last year. 

I do agree with some criticisms that it would be better if Kelly were a bit younger; but when Saban was hired at Alabama, he was only about 4 years younger than Kelly is now.  That was one of the best college football hires anyone has ever made.  I don’t expect Kelly to be one of the best hires ever made if we review the decision in 15 years (Alabama hired Saban after the 2006 season), but expecting anything better on paper is ridiculous.  It was also a good decision when LSU hired Saban 22 years ago, but he was young enough to be tempted into an NFL head coaching job 5 years later.  I think when you hire someone around 60, they’re less likely to go that direction and less likely to leave to embark on another big project before retirement.

Brian Kelly Timeline and New Rankings

Brian Kelly Timeline

In the last blog, I decided not to speculate on some aspects of how the deal that brought Kelly to LSU materialized (through his agent) when and how it did.  I’m glad that I didn’t because more information has come out.  It’s not completely different from what I thought, but the picture is more complete now. 

Brian Kelly made an interesting comment to Rece Davis in an interview on GameDay.   He said that his agent Trace Armstrong told him about several inquiries that he had received; but he only discussed this at the end of the season.  Unless his agent called his wife and cleared it with her first, I don’t think he meant the very end of the season.  I suspect that he wasn’t so overwhelmed with the stress of Notre Dame’s looming game against 3-8 Stanford that he took a little bit of time to have conversations with his agent and his family during the week prior to that game.  It is plausible that the only direct conversation with Woodward was after the Stanford game though, and it makes sense that everything had to become settled relatively quickly.  My conclusion about Kelly having some prior conversations is also supported by LSU grad Booger McFarland, who said the deal with Kelly (or at least the formal offer) was already on the verge of being finalized on Saturday.

Rece Davis interviewed Brian Kelly in a meeting room on the LSU campus. The interview aired on GameDay yesterday.

I think Armstrong knew Kelly and Woodward were keeping quiet, so he had the opportunity to fill the void by suggesting the job was actually going to Riley.  Riley was probably going to USC at that point anyway, but Armstrong was able to get a more favorable contract approved more quickly than he would have otherwise.  It didn’t hurt Kelly that he was able to stay under the radar as long as he did.  Whether Riley’s name floating around helped Woodward to secure the funding I’m not sure.  Some have speculated that Woodward knew a long time ago, perhaps before even taking the job or at least before the Orgeron announcement, the money was going to be in place.

I imagine someone at LSU other than Scott Woodward had to be apprised of the situation to finalize the deal even though Woodward was given broad latitude.  At that point a leak was inevitable.  Any major news about LSU football gets all over town very quickly.  I’m not saying the leak was out of malice.  It might have just been to calm down some of the hysteria regarding Riley going to another team.  Some worried that Riley was the guy Woodward was counting on all this time and that he didn’t have a backup plan.

There was an article by former LSU beat writer Ross Dellenger, who now works for Sports Illustrated.  It says that Woodward made one last phone call to Jimbo Fisher prior to the weekend before proceeding with hiring Kelly.  I hope that isn’t true; but if it is, I’m glad Jimbo said no.  I know Woodward likes to hire champions, but Fisher left Florida St. as it was going down the tubes in the years after his national title there.  I certainly think his is an improvement over the previous coaching staff in College Station, but you don’t pay someone a salary like that to go 8-4.  I’m not certain Kelly will do better, but I’d rather have the uncertainty than the knowledge of what Jimbo has done in recent years.  If he were available, I think it would have cost a lot more than the Kelly deal did anyway.

Ratings and Playoff Commentary

I mentioned last week that Alabama did not schedule well out of conference; but the Tide played 6 games against SEC West opponents, all of whom were bowl-eligible and which included #9 Ole Miss, as well as otherwise-undefeated Georgia and 7-5 Tennessee. 

I explained last week that Oklahoma St. had a very good schedule, and it was even better than Alabama’s.  This is why the Cowboys are ranked higher than Notre Dame despite the additional loss.  To illustrate this point, Virginia and West Virginia are both 6-6 with almost identical strengths of schedule.  Notre Dame beat Virginia, while Oklahoma St. beat West Virginia.  Notre Dame only beat two teams that were better: Purdue and Wisconsin.  Oklahoma St. beat four teams that were better: Boise St., Kansas St., Baylor, and Oklahoma.  Both teams won 2/3 of their games against better teams, but being tested more often should give Oklahoma St. the edge. Even if we expand it to the top 80 (we are still talking about risky opponents here—#76 TCU beat Baylor, #77 Illinois beat two ranked teams on the road, and #70 Florida was a field goal away from beating Alabama), Oklahoma St. still played almost twice as many in that range.

Baylor does belong lower than Notre Dame though.  Although BYU was a good non-conference opponent, the Bears scheduled Texas St. (who went 4-8 and is my #111) and Texas Southern (who only beat two other FCS opponents).  Although they essentially played the game conference schedule as Oklahoma St. did, losing to bad teams is punished a little more harshly.  As mentioned, TCU is #76.  Iowa St., who beat Oklahoma St., is #49. 

All three are relatively close though.  There is more than twice as much separation between #4 Cincinnati and #5 Oklahoma St. than there is between #5 Oklahoma St. and #7 Baylor.  There is just under twice as much space between #7 Baylor and #8 Ohio St.

There is a consensus about who the four semifinal teams should be and since the focus of my ratings is creating a fair objective top four, I could not be more satisfied.  You can quibble about how high UL-Lafayette and UT-San Antonio are—I think teams like Michigan St., Oklahoma, and Utah would beat both easily—but I don’t mind giving credit to successful seasons.  Even with an expanded playoff, I wouldn’t want teams with more than one or two losses this season in it, so I don’t mind if 1-loss ULL or 1-loss UTSA are higher than teams who would be highly favored to beat them.

I also think if Cincinnati played number 5 through 10 they’d be lucky to win one or two.  On the other hand, the Bearcats are 1-0 against that group; and a lot of people would have told you out of 10 tries Oregon would beat Utah 9 or 10 of them.  If you missed it, the Ducks had two shots at the Utes and fell far short both times.  Anyway, I also don’t think a two-loss non-champion would be more deserving of a slot in the top 4 even if they look better to me.  Oklahoma St. and others had their chances and fell short. About a foot short in the case of Oklahoma St. against Baylor.  The best Cowboy teams always lose to Iowa St. though. This also happened 10 years ago when the Cowboys missed the top two in favor of the Tide.

Houston stayed close with Cincinnati for a while, so I don’t love the fact that they fell out of the top 25; but Utah St. deserved to move back into it after their solid win over San Diego St. for the Mountain West title.  I like seeing some stability as far as which teams are in the top 25.  In the last three weeks, only four teams have fallen out.  Utah St. was one of those four, so there are only three different teams than there were three weeks ago. 

Championship losers San Diego St., Appalachian St., and Wake Forest all managed to stay in the top 25.  There needs to be a penalty for losing; but just like I’m glad Oklahoma St. didn’t fall out of the top 5 in favor of Notre Dame, I like that it’s not so harsh that any of the three fell below enough idle teams to fall out of the top 25.  

Alabama QB Bryce Young drops back to pass in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia in Atlanta on Saturday. Alabama is now the consensus Number 1 team going into the bowls. The Tide will play Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl on December 31.

I wrote everything above last night, but I just wanted to respond briefly to Michigan being placed ahead of Georgia.  It doesn’t really matter who #2 and #3 are, but it’s the only difference between the respective top fours, so I wanted to address it.

Georgia Tech isn’t even in that top 80 group I was talking about, but the Bulldogs are in luck because that’s the third-best team they scheduled out of conference.  I have Clemson just outside of the top 25 and UAB at #50.  Of course they avoided Alabama and Ole Miss in the regular season. Imagine the arguments if they had played Alabama.  Anyway, Arkansas and Auburn as the non-divisional games still aren’t bad.  Michigan’s Big Ten schedule did include some bad teams though.  Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Indiana all have losing records compared to just one in-conference opponent for Georgia that had a losing record.  Michigan’s one Power Five opponent rates worse than Georgia Tech.  MAC champion Northern Illinois was a help and Western Michigan rated similarly to UAB, but it should not be enough to put them ahead.

That said, if the committee made the decision based on the team that will take the field at the end of the month being harder to beat rather than resume, I do agree with Michigan being ahead.  They finished very strong.  If they play the way they played against Ohio St. and Iowa, they can beat anyone.  If Georgia plays the way they played against Alabama, especially with the turnovers, they won’t have much of a chance.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Alabama	3
2	Georgia	1
3	Michigan	4
4	Cincinnati	5
5	Oklahoma St.	2
6	Notre Dame	6
7	Baylor	9
8	Ohio St.	7
9	Ole Miss	8
10	B. Young	11
11	UL-Lafayette	16
12	Michigan St.	13
13	Oklahoma	15
14	TX-San Anton’	20
15	Pittsburgh	21
16	Utah	22
17	Wisconsin	18
18	Iowa	10
19	San Diego St.	12
20	Oregon	14
21	Boise St.	24
22	App. State	17
23	Arkansas	25
24	Utah St.	—
25	Wake Forest	19

Out of Rankings: (23) Houston

1-130 computer ratings

Why It Wasn’t Wrong for Kelly to Leave Notre Dame

There was no way to encapsulate all of my thoughts about the events of the last 5 or 6 days into a single blog. For now, I’m going to focus on Kelly leaving Notre Dame and how I understand that happened. I’ve decided to start with a collection of often misrepresented or misunderstood facts and then use those facts to come to reasonable conclusions. Some of the facts may seem a little sarcastic, but it’s not my fault how many people fail to acknowledge such obvious facts in their reaction to this situation. I will discuss Kelly’s fit with LSU and other matters in other blogs.

Facts

Kelly had recently said that for him to leave there needed to be a fairy godmother with a check for a quarter billion dollars OR he had to talk to his wife.

• The only confirmed conversation between Woodward and Kelly was some point between the Notre Dame-Stanford game and the news broke on Monday. 

• Kelly stayed on the West Coast after the game for recruiting for Notre Dame.

• Leaked text of contract was dated Sunday.

• There were widespread reports of a conversation in October, but Kelly said he didn’t engage in any and he can’t speak to what conversations his agent did and didn’t have.

• Kelly said after meeting with a recruit’s family he found out news broke.

• There is no known ability that Brian Kelly has to shut down social media or sports reporters nationwide.

• There have been no documented cases of time travel.

• I’m not sure where he was recruiting, but Stanford plays just south of San Francisco and he said he picked up his lawyer and they left from Orange County, which is South of Los Angeles.

• Kelly probably did not check his phone while with a recruit and also was not available by phone while in the air.  This apparently led some to believe he was deliberately ignoring his assistants.

• Kelly and Lincoln Riley share the same agent.

• When LSU fans were largely under the impression the coach would be Riley, there was a report that a press conference was expected Wednesday or Thursday.

• After texting Monday night while preparing to return, Kelly met with Notre Dame players on Tuesday morning.

• On Tuesday evening, Notre Dame was ranked #6 in the College Football Playoff rankings.

• Kelly would not say whether a higher ranking would have affected his decision.

• The early signing period begins two weeks from the introductory press conference that was on Wednesday.

• Unlike many other successful teams this season, Notre Dame is idle until the bowl games.

• The Notre Dame AD did not ask assistant coaches to return since they were also busy recruiting.

• Brian Kelly was at Notre Dame for 12 years and is the all-time winningest coach in Irish history.

• It is very common for coaching changes to take place after regular-season games but before bowl games, and this has been the case going back decades.

• Games that take place after the regular season are called the post-season, not the mid-season, so leaving after those games is not accurately characterized as “leaving in the middle of the season”.

Inferences and Conclusions

Obviously, I don’t think his agent had meaningful conversations without apprising him or that his wife and family were first given the opportunity to think about it late Saturday night.  I think he kept it vague enough that while he might not know of every conversation, he knew of the conversations that he had with the agent.  My guess is the contract in its final form was drafted on Sunday but not finalized and agreed to until Monday.

In an increasingly rare sight, two coaches each with over 10 years of experience as head coach of their respective schools (Stanford’s David Shaw, left, and Brian Kelly, then of Notre Dame, to the right) exchange pleasantries after a Power-5 football game, which in this case had taken place Saturday night in Stanford, Calif. Approximately 48 hours later, it was revealed in no uncertain terms that Kelly would be leaving the Irish with his last stop in South Bend being early Tuesday morning.

Kelly didn’t want to miss any time recruiting in the event he were to stay at Notre Dame. Although it may hurt in the committee, it makes sense for Notre Dame to take advantage of not having a game coming up to get an edge on the many good teams who do have a game coming up this weekend.  The Notre Dame AD said he didn’t ask any of his coaches to come back to South Bend, so it was busy for them too.  Kelly denied and I heard no reports that Kelly had negotiated with any other teams.

I can understand the frustration of an assistant who just had a meeting with a recruit and sees or hears on his phone somehow that the head coach is leaving and then can’t get in touch with the head coach.  Rather than taking a deep breath and thinking about logistical issues that can arise, apparently this assistant assumed the worst and got on the phone with a reporter to vent his frustrations.  That does not mean Kelly screwed anyone over or left anyone high and dry.  That’s just melodrama the media tried to sell.

Since that was about the worst possible ranking the Irish could have realistically had this week, it’s safe to say that waiting a couple of days wouldn’t have mattered even if the news hadn’t come out.  I don’t think waiting until this coming Sunday was an option though. There may have been a revolution in Baton Rouge if people waited that long without further clarity as to the coaching situation there, and anyone who did know would not have been able to keep quiet that long.

Some people say that he should only have even entertained an offer if they were eliminated, but remember that LSU finished #2 in the BCS rankings in 2007 with two losses.  The Tigers had jumped from #7 to #2 on championship weekend. With that in mind, when are you really out of contention for #4? #10 maybe? So everyone can leave but the coaches with the 9 most successful teams of the year after the regular season? In other words, you can have anyone except the coaches you probably want at that moment. After Brian Kelly’s last game in Cincinnati, the Bearcats were ranked #4. After Nick Saban’s last game at Michigan St., the Spartans were ranked #9. Maybe Saban never coaches in the SEC if such a rule were put in place. Certainly, Notre Dame wouldn’t have hired Brian Kelly the year they did in the first place. So don’t listen to these appeals to principle by Notre Dame fans. They’re fine with taking coaches from the best teams, in their case while an undefeated campaign was ongoing. They just never thought the shoe would be on the other foot.

Also, even if he were 40, you don’t get your best offers after an off year.  Saban didn’t say, “We finally have a good bowl game this year, call me back another year if we go back to the Independence Bowl.” No one at Notre Dame had a problem bringing Kelly in after he had an undefeated season at Cincinnati and they were going to the Sugar Bowl.   I know they’re not national championships, but Michigan St. and Cincinnati aren’t Notre Dame.  Notre Dame had some down years in recent memory, but they didn’t go winless like Michigan St. did before Saban took over.  Michigan St. was a big program at some point, but Cincinnati never was.

Brian Kelly celebrates a dramatic comeback win in the final regular-season game against Pittsburgh in 2009. Cincinnati clinched the Big East championship with the win. Two days later, the New York Times reported Kelly would interview with the Irish. Kelly was selected and negotiations were completed by the following Thursday.

If Kelly had ended up staying at Notre Dame, he wouldn’t have wanted to endanger that by not using this opportunity to recruit.  He certainly wouldn’t have wanted to let on that he was talking to other programs about their job.  That could have left him with neither job.  If LSU didn’t work out and Notre Dame had let him stay, that could have strained a lot of relationships and cost him a chance to win at least one playoff game.  If Georgia beats Alabama comfortably, they’ll be a clear #1 and I wouldn’t give Notre Dame a chance; but if Alabama wins, I don’t know who #1 is.  I guess it would be Michigan, but if Michigan St. beat them Notre Dame can.  This might have been the only really good chance Notre Dame had, and time is not on your side at 60.

I also want to mention that it’s very unlikely that Kelly was offered more than a very brief speech.  The Notre Dame administration would not have wanted him to have conversations with players that could have led to transfers to LSU, nor would they want more than a brief distraction even if that were not a risk.

I know it’s unfortunate that his departure could be used against Notre Dame, but NCAA/CFP college football made this mess, not Lincoln Riley and not Brian Kelly.  They shouldn’t penalize any team for their coach making a rational decision based on the recruiting schedule.

Some say if they’re really harsh it will teach schools a lesson not to fire coaches.  How would punishing Notre Dame teach LSU a lesson?  What?

Others who pretend to take the players’ side say coaches shouldn’t be able to actually leave at this time.  So coaches can make plans to leave, but they’re stuck.  How hard are they going to recruit if they know they’re not getting the player?  For the players the school gets despite the coach potentially blowing it, they’re going to be signing up to play for a coach who won’t even be the coach when they arrive on campus.  Whatever university hires that coach will have a whole recruiting class who didn’t sign up to have that coach.  I’m for the escape valve of the transfer portal (although I think there should be certain date ranges), but you could end up with almost as many players in it as out of it.  I don’t think it would stop coaches from moving if all the other rules stay in place.

The only real solution in my opinion is (1) to not have an early signing day, (2) to make rules about tampering during the season (which for all teams would be through the national title game), and (3) allow six weeks between the allowable period to hire another team’s coach and the one and only national signing day.  The teams who lose a coach and opt not hire a current head coach should still have times to find a replacement and get their new staffs organized in time for recruits to make really good decisions knowing the head coach, coordinator, and school.  Only knowing the school isn’t good enough if you really care about players and you’re not just trying to get clicks from angry Notre Dame fans.

Another person who tried to add fuel to the fire was Lou Holtz, who tried to act like leaving Notre Dame was a huge insult to Notre Dame.  If you don’t remember, Lou Holtz was the guy who left Notre Dame at the age of 59 after 11 seasons, a stark contrast from Kelly’s age of 60 and his departure after 12 seasons.  Holtz then decided he wanted a new challenge of coaching in the SEC, which is also completely different because of reasons. He may claim it was OK because he didn’t go to another team immediately. To me, it’s more selfish to leave to have months for yourself than it is to immediately begin to devote your energies to another group of young men.

I could make fun of bad takes all day long, but I don’t want to be mean and I don’t want to promote their stupidity. I’m not worried about Holtz’s media presence going forward. Although I can’t stand the whole Notre Dame football scene, I have some sympathy for how players and fans may feel right now. I know when they go on about how mediocre or morally deficient Kelly is or how great first time head coach Marcus Freeman is (he may be, but no one really knows yet), they’re really overcompensating for a sudden feeling of insecurity.

Anyway, for a more rational analysis, I recommend this Fox Sports clip of Doug Gottleib. I also thought Rich Eisen, Marcellus Wiley, and Stephen A. Smith (of all people) had reactions worth hearing. I intentionally mention people without any loyalties toward LSU.

I’ve even seen some comments from LSU fans saying we were disappointed when Saban left.  After Katrina, the Saints played the Dolphins in Tiger Stadium.  The biggest cheer all day was when Nick Saban was announced. 

On October 30, 2005, Nick Saban walks the sidelines at Tiger Stadium less than 10 months after his last game with the Tigers. Saban would return again just over three years later as the head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Saban won both the game above over the Saints and the 2008 game over the Tigers. 2010 is still the only instance of Saban losing in Tiger Stadium since he left LSU. His next scheduled trip to Baton Rouge is November 5. He also defeated Kelly’s Irish in the 2012 and 2020 seasons.

LSU fans were sad that Christmas 2004 (which I think was the day Saban decided) and New Year’s 2005 (not to mention the way LSU lost the game that day), but it wasn’t this kind of anger.  Saban probably would have had to stay 15 years to become the all-time winningest coach.  I don’t think many would have begrudged him leaving after that.  Even given that he left after 5 years, people only got angry and hateful toward Saban when he went to Alabama.  If Kelly had gone to USC, then I would relate.  I think the real reason we see the anger from Notre Dame fans is it kind of rubs their noses in it that they’re not this great college program that people will sacrifice tens of millions of dollars just for the privilege of being there. 

I will talk about why the common agent might matter in other blogs.

Anyway, this says absolutely nothing negative about Kelly’s character.  Unless it’s proven that he lied about a large number of things or a large number of conclusions about reported facts are not as they appear, I don’t see any legitimate reason for the negative attention.  I think Notre Dame hopes with the favorable media they get, they can unfairly poison recruits against Kelly.  LSU fans might not have cared about Kelly a week ago, but we shouldn’t let them.