Week 12 Top 25 and CFP Notes 2023

Ratings and College Football Playoff Response/Prediction

The first four teams are all undefeated now, just in time to lose at least one undefeated team this weekend.  It happens to be the same top four as the CFP top 25.  I can argue until I’m blue in the face about Oregon, but I guess people like flashy offenses and uniforms (not to mention years of a hype and a nationwide ad campaign for the quarterback) more than they like a good strength of schedule.  It seems like they’re setting up the possibility of Oregon going to the Playoff in the event of revenge wins over Oregon St. (for last year) and Washington (for both last year and earlier this season).

Putting aside the CFP ramifications, I think Oregon might have some motivation to win this next game.

I don’t think Washington, Georgia, or Florida St. (another undefeated not in the top four) have much chance of a loss this coming weekend, but losses by none of them (except maybe Georgia) would be much stranger than the time 4-7 Pitt beat 10-1 West Virginia in 2007 to help LSU make the championship game. 

Florida and Washington St. have five wins apiece and are playing for bowl eligibility as well as in-state bragging rights, while Georgia Tech is already bowl-eligible.  A late pick-six is likely the only reason Washington beat Arizona St., who is only 3-8.  Despite one fewer win, Florida is a better team than Boston College, whom Florida St. only beat by 2.  Georgia hasn’t really come close to a loss though.

Alabama and Florida St. both lost ground compared to higher teams as a result of playing FCS opponents.  Alabama probably lost a bit less since the SEC gained strength with out-of-conference wins and because Chattanooga is an FCS playoff team.

I suspect that unless Washington and Georgia remain undefeated, removing Oregon and Alabama from the running in the process, the plan is that Florida St. will be excluded from the Playoff.  I don’t know if this was the plan before their QB Jordan Travis was hurt or not.

I don’t think the CFP standings after Alabama matter too much for the national championship, but LSU fans (ironically) should cheer for Missouri and Ole Miss to lose for a better chance at a selection committee (or NY6) bowl or at the CapitalOne Bowl.  It’s ironic because normally it would be a good thing if no one outside of the top 12 beat you and you had a top-10 win, but that’s not how the logic of bowl placement works.

It would be more logical for LSU fans to cheer for Alabama to beat Georgia (whom LSU did not play, if you haven’t noticed) in the SEC Championship game because that would retain the possibility of there being two SEC playoff teams.  This might not be the year for that to happen though given the possibility of four undefeated teams going into championship weekend.  There are also a couple of other teams (I mentioned Oregon; there is also Texas) who could be good one-loss candidates as conference champions.  I think one-loss Texas will go ahead of one-loss Alabama even if they shouldn’t.

Anyway, the rest of this is just about my ratings, not the CFP rankings or what I think they will do.

The Big Ten is now much closer to the Pac-12, which is now #3, as they can look forward to taking the Pac-12’s two best teams (as well as UCLA and USC, which are more in the middle).  They would still be behind the SEC, which will add the Big XII’s two best teams.

I mentioned Arizona St. earlier.  Oregon’s win over the Sun Devils allowed them to get past Ole Miss, who beat an inferior UL-Monroe squad.  Other relatively small differences in quality of opponents accounted for the movement in the rest of the top 20, apart from James Madison, who lost to Appalachian St.  Oregon St. fell a smaller number of spots for losing to Washington, which was a close game as expected.

I had a little bit of trouble figuring out the last two.  I strongly considered Oklahoma St. and Clemson, but they each had three losses that were all big negatives.  Arizona had only one bad loss and one that was mediocre.  Oregon St. and North Carolina St. only had one mediocre-to-bad loss apiece.  Oklahoma St. had the best list of wins, but the others had comparable good wins.  I didn’t hold the fourth loss (to Florida St.) against Clemson, but there weren’t really strong wins to counterbalance the other losses.

It might seem a little weird that North Carolina still has honorable mention status, but the four teams directly below them (Kansas, Utah, Tennessee, and USC) all lost also. Another interesting one is UNLV, whom I have never ranked in the top 25.

My Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Washington	2
3	Georgia	5
4	Michigan	4
5	Texas	6
6	Alabama	7
7	Florida St.	3
8	Penn St.	8
9	Oregon	10
10	Ole Miss	9
11	Oklahoma	13
12	Missouri	12
13	Louisville	15
14	Liberty	16
15	Iowa	14
16	Kansas St.	17
17	LSU	18
18	James Madison	11
19	Notre Dame	23
20	Toledo	21
21	Troy	20
22	Tulane	22
23	Oregon St.	19
24	N Carolina St.	—
25	Arizona	—

Out of Top 25: (24) Utah, (25) Memphis

Honorable mention: Oklahoma St., UNLV, Clemson, Memphis, North Carolina

Week 11 Top 25 2023

I was supposed to have time to do this on Wednesday but ended up having an unusually long (and rainy) work day instead, so I’m writing this on Thursday night (Friday morning for many of you).

Best-laid plans of mice and A&M boosters, I suppose.

Recap of LSU/Florida and Rivalry

It wasn’t because there was nothing to write about. I’m happy to make fun of Texas A&M and Florida, who lost a fifth straight to LSU. No one else has a losing streak to LSU that goes back to the national championship season (unless Vanderbilt’s streak of two counts). Although the LSU/Florida series dates back to 1937 and has been played annually since 1971, this was the first time LSU won five straight. Florida had once won nine straight from 1988 to 1996, but LSU now has its first lead in the series since then. If LSU doesn’t win another game this season, I’ll still feel some measure of success from that fact.

While it is unlikely that the LSU/Florida series will continue annually beyond that, the Tigers will at least make the return trip to Gainesville next year. I will endeavor to update the key Rivalry Series in the next week or so.

Not to be bitter about it, but the damage is done anyway. Having to play Florida every year, which included going to the Swamp every even year (apart from 2016), at least more often than not placed the Tigers at a disadvantage in the SEC West as far back as 1996. I guess it did in years before that too, but LSU was so bad it didn’t really matter. LSU had also played Auburn, which was strong for roughly the same time period, on the road in even years. The combined influence of those two games prevented LSU from winning the West in an even year until last season. The other SEC Championship appearances had been 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2011, and 2019. I acknowledge a certain crimson opponent played a role as well, but LSU’s unique struggles with them really only started in the 2012 calendar year.

LSU had to play Auburn every year by virtue of being in the West (that series will not be played next year), but had the Florida series not been made permanent, playing a different SEC East opponent could have made the difference in 1996 (when LSU would been one game better rather than losing a tie-breaker with Alabama) and 2006 (when LSU would have won a tie-breaker with Arkansas, but the additional loss made that irrelevant).

Given that the game was typically in early October though, it put the Tigers behind in 8-ball in several additional seasons. For example, LSU would have known going into the Arkansas game in 2000 that a win would have sent them to Atlanta (ironically, they went to Atlanta anyway to play in the Peach Bowl). Florida dealt LSU its first loss in 2008, and QB Jarrett Lee was never the same again. If it weren’t for his late-season penchant for throwing “pick sixes”, LSU could have easily won all but one other SEC game. LSU also nearly lost to Troy later in that season (seems like that would have taught the AD a lesson, but I digress). I doubt it affected the SEC championship games, but Florida also dealt LSU its first losses in 2012 and 2018, respectively.

Anyway, this was the largest win by either team since LSU’s 41-11 win in 2011. I’ll give the Gators credit for keeping it close for a while though. It didn’t help LSU that, as a result of a poorly-fielded kickoff, the Gators were able to score twice in just a couple of minutes to take a 28-24 lead in the third quarter. Jayden Daniels is a little bit more reliable for generating points than hoping for points off of turnovers and other miscues though, so the Tigers outscored the Gators 28-7 the rest of the way.

Jayden Daniels rushes against Florida on Saturday in Baton Rouge. He ran so well, I can’t even be certain which play this was; but I believe it was the 85-yard touchdown that was along the left side of the field. Daniels became the first person to pass for 200 yards and run for 200 yards in an SEC game at some point in the third quarter, but he finished with over 350 passing yards, which had never been done along with that many rushing yards. Johnny Manziel had thrown for 200 and rushed for 200 once; but that was in a bowl game, so we really hadn’t seen anything like this before.

The LSU defense and coordinator Matt House continue to get a lot of flak, but keeping Alabama within one possession at least until the fourth quarter (if not the entire rest of the game) and keeping Florida from getting a lead the whole game would have been something to be proud of. It’s just not helpful if you put them on the field with their backs close to the end zone seconds after the previous drive ends.

Response to College Football Playoff Top 25

I’ll start by saying there is nothing really new in terms of grievances with the College Football Playoff’s top 25. Oregon’s being ahead of Alabama and Texas continues to make no sense if you care about schedule strength.

At least Oregon St. is no longer the top 2-loss team, having been passed by Missouri. I don’t expect the Beavers will stay the one of the top 2-loss teams indefinitely anyway given games against Washington and Oregon coming up. If they win both, I’ll be happy for them to be the top 2-loss team though. More on them below.

I’d also like them to care more about the schedules of teams like Arizona and North Carolina, but those are far enough down that I’m not sure they really matter. The Arizona/Arizona St. game might actually be game though. It looked like it was going to be a pillow fight earlier in the year.

Comments about My Ratings

I had a bit of time to smooth out the rough edges this weekend and I still liked the results to add the original ratings back in as I described last week.  It also makes sense for some of the teams lower in the ratings because there is a number I have to adjust to factor in the bad teams so one bad loss doesn’t swallow multiple wins.  I can re-add the original ratings without that adjustment though, which I think is the fairer approach.

I was also able to do conference ratings and strength of schedule.  I will wait another week to see if the strength of schedule is giving teams enough credit in the ratings.  That might also be a further adjustment to the formula.  The same basic numbers and computations are being used regardless, it’s just been a continuing balancing act over years between giving credit for wins and giving credit for quality of competition.

It’s amazing that LSU, Ole Miss, and Penn St. have only seven combined losses and are still in the top 7 of the strength of schedule.  Duke is the only other team in the top 12 with a winning record.  Others in the top 20 with winning records are Utah, Kansas St., Kansas, Notre Dame, Missouri, and USC.  I did opt not to put Kansas in the top 25 below due to some of the losses they have though.

I think it’s fair that even though Michigan and Georgia still don’t have great schedules that this recognizes their schedules are now comparable enough that they should be ranked ahead of teams with losses like Texas and Alabama. I think barring any major upsets (based on rank, not necessarily based on betting line), most people would agree that the Top 4 should be Big Ten champion, SEC champion, undefeated Florida St., and undefeated Washington. If Alabama were to lose the SEC championship, the next beneficiary (for now) of a potential upset should be Texas if they win out. This recognizes that.

The conference ratings weren’t very surprising.  The SEC and Big Ten are neck and neck, but I think the SEC will pull away slightly next week given the out-of-conference games.  There are non-conference games the week after that, but I don’t like Kentucky’s, Florida’s, or South Carolina’s chances against ACC opponents (I’m not too worried about Georgia), so that might bring the SEC closer to the Big Ten again.

The SEC would still be ahead after adding the new programs to the Big Ten and the SEC.  That’s not really proof of too much about next season anyway given that Washington, Oklahoma, etc., can’t get as many good wins without hurting someone else in their respective future conferences next season.  It might mean that the Big Ten will be harder to beat in future seasons; but on the other hand, maybe Oregon and Washington fall back to the more mediocre status they occupied not too long ago.

Washington is very close to getting the top spot in the computer ratings.  I definitely think the Huskies will have that spot with a win, but they might lose it the week after (Washington St. wouldn’t count for nearly as much as Michigan would) and reclaim it the week after that (Oregon would count for a lot more than Iowa would). I expect to keep Ohio St. #1 here however for the next couple of weeks absent a loss or something really concerning. I’ll be very interested in how the ratings shape up after the conference championships though.

The initial line I saw had Washington barely favored over Oregon St., and then I saw one in which the Beavers were favored.  I definitely think that’s the big game this weekend. As I’ve mentioned, the Huskies have a couple of very narrow wins at home, so playing a team that’s been playing well on the road might be a challenge.  They might gain more support in the polls and the CFP with the win also, but those are much more stubborn than my ratings are.

Another Heisman candidate now, Michael Penix, Jr., throws under pressure against Oregon St. in Seattle last November. The Huskies won at the last second, 24-21, so it makes sense that the Beavers are given a very good chance to win at home this time despite the Huskies’ undefeated record.

I feel bad for Oregon St. that they lost a close game in Pullman when Wazzu was playing well, but the Cougars have gone down like the Hindenburg since then.

Three of the Honorable Mentions got promoted last week, so keep an eye on those. This week, all but one is in a Power Five conference, so that’s a noticeable change. That one other team is Coastal Carolina, the only one that hasn’t been ranked at some point this season.

My Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Washington	3
3	Florida St.	2
4	Michigan	6
5	Georgia	7
6	Texas	4
7	Alabama	5
8	Penn St.	9
9	Ole Miss	8
10	Oregon	11
11	James Madison	10
12	Missouri	16
13	Oklahoma	13
14	Iowa	19
15	Louisville	14
16	Liberty	17
17	Kansas St.	24
18	LSU	25
19	Oregon St.	21
20	Troy	20
21	Toledo	—
22	Tulane	—
23	Notre Dame	23
24	Utah	18
25	Memphis	—

Out of Top 25: (12) Kansas, (15) Oklahoma St., (22) Tennessee

Honorable mention: Kansas, Oklahoma St., Coastal Carolina, North Carolina, Southern CA

Week 7 Top 25 2023

I’m still moving toward my completely objective top 25; but if you just want to know what the computer says, go here.  Last week, it was less than 1/3 objective.  Today, it’s roughly half.  The initial list I made was 60% objective, but I still allowed myself to move teams by up to 5 spots after that.  The only exception was Ohio St., whom I moved six spots.  There is a good chance the Buckeyes will be near #1 on their own merit next week anyway (if they beat Penn St. of course).

This might be the last week I can have Georgia ahead of all the one-loss teams though.  Texas has the #3 schedule, and Georgia has one of the worst in FBS.  Adding a bye week doesn’t help.  The Bulldogs have a gauntlet after that (three games against ranked teams, one on the road, and two other good teams away from home), so they’re not pulling the wool over anyone’s eyes to get back to the Playoff; but this is meant to be a snapshot.  They should not be in the top four or even the top eight if the season ended now.  Not only was Vanderbilt a weak opponent, but all of the Bulldogs’ best three opponents so far (Kentucky, South Carolina, and Auburn) lost to teams the Bulldogs have not yet played or will not play.

Just like last week though, most teams did not move more than a couple of spots from the improvised formula.  There may still be some volatility in the coming weeks because for many teams next week’s result will still make up 1/6 of their FBS opponents, so it counts for about twice as much as a game does at the end of the year.  Also, I’m going to continue to give myself less power to smooth out any transitions up or down the rankings.

The top 9 should make a lot of sense based on last week.

Iowa is exactly where the formula put them.  If Penn St. loses, the Hawkeyes may fall a spot or two, but I think this is fair for right now.  North Carolina is undefeated and has played a significantly better schedule than Georgia has, so I thought that spot was good for them.

Louisville followed up on the win over Notre Dame with a loss to Pitt, so this allowed LSU to move ahead of the Irish despite having a much less impressive win.  The only loss by either of the two teams who beat LSU was to Alabama, so LSU’s two losses look much more excusable right now.  Pitt already had four losses and had no FBS wins going into last week.  They had a significant drop-off from last season.  Former Pitt (and USC) quarterback Kedon Slovis going to BYU didn’t seem to do either side any good.

Michael Penix, Jr., of Washington prepares to attempt a pass against the Oregon Ducks in Seattle on Saturday. While both teams did have some success on the ground, the anticipated quarterback battle largely delivered. Although Penix threw for fewer yards and a lower completion percentage and threw the game’s only interception, he made up for it by throwing for two more touchdowns and about half a yard more per attempt than Oregon’s Bo Nix threw.

Oregon is still a good team despite the setback in Seattle.  Their loss is similarly excusable to LSU’s losses, but there just isn’t a quality win like LSU and Notre Dame have.  Missouri also only has one loss, but obviously I think hosting LSU is a step down from traveling to Washington right now.

Five of the remaining nine teams in my top 25 are in the Pac-12.  It took me a while to sort them.  I think it’s easier to explain in reverse order.  Despite two losses in a row, Washington St. deserved to stay ranked because they beat Wisconsin, the team I would otherwise have put #25.  Colorado St. isn’t bad for a second-best out-of-conference win either.   

I don’t know why Wazzu lost to Arizona so badly, but margin of victory (or loss in this case) isn’t a big concern for me going forward.  The week before, the Cougars lost to UCLA, so I put the Bruins higher.  Oregon St. beat UCLA, and I think they only ended up losing to Washington St. because the game was in Pullman.  Also, it’s a singular loss.  The Beavers also beat Utah, so I think putting them between Washington St. and Utah made sense.

USC lost, but it was out of conference to Notre Dame, so I don’t have a problem with leaving the Trojans ahead of Oregon St., UCLA, and Washington St.  You could argue about Utah, but it helps that the Utes beat Florida, whom I have #32 right now.  Baylor isn’t having the best season, but going to Waco is still a strong second-best out-of-conference game.  I don’t think USC has beaten anyone nearly as good as Florida.  The Utes are 1-1 against the rest of the top 25 (win over UCLA, loss to Oregon St… another reason the Beavers are ahead of the Bruins), which is of course better than 0-1.

I squeezed Duke ahead of USC because they played Notre Dame closer and also because Clemson is creeping their way back toward the top 25 like Florida is.

I wasn’t blown away by the fact that Tennessee beat Texas A&M at home, but I like the way that they were able to grind out a low-scoring win and never seemed panicky or particularly at risk of losing.  There were times last year when the Volunteers were out of their element when a defense was able to slow them down.  I’m seeing some maturity and consistency that I’m not seeing from teams that are lower; and I mentioned Florida vis-a-vis Utah, so I’m more forgiving of that loss than the combinations of two losses below or the singular loss to Pitt.

I moved James Madison as far down as I could, so I don’t think the Dukes would beat the Volunteers on a neutral field right now; but this is a normal consequence of the computer formula.  I could be wrong though.  I would have sworn all last year that Tulane wouldn’t have beaten USC on a neutral field, for instance.  I have Tulane #31, by the way, between the five honorable mentions and Florida.  Kansas St. is right after Florida, which explains in part why Missouri is still as high as they are.  Kentucky isn’t a bad #2 win for a one-loss team either.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Oklahoma	3
3	Michigan	2
4	Florida St.	5
5	Washington	8
6	Penn St.	6
7	Georgia	4
8	Texas	7
9	Alabama	9
10	N Carolina	11
11	Iowa	19
12	Ole Miss	13
13	LSU	18
14	Notre Dame	15
15	Oregon	10
16	Missouri	25
17	Utah	17
18	Duke	21
19	Southern CA	14
20	Oregon St.	23
21	James Madison	—
22	Tennessee	—
23	Louisville	12
24	UCLA	22
25	Washington St.	16

Out of Top 25: (20) Kentucky, (24) Wisconsin

Honorable mention: Liberty, Air Force, Wisconsin, Troy, Clemson

Week 1 Reaction and Top 25 2023

Since the last blog…

Sometimes long weekends are the worst scenario.  It was basically Wednesday by the time I was able to review some of the things that went wrong during the LSU game. If I had waited to review all of them, I might have never written another blog.  Obviously I’m not a beat reporter in Baton Rouge, so I rely on public statements and coverage from the people who are based around the program.  That process was delayed by a day or more given that the game took place on Sunday night.  I did have Friday the 1st off, but nothing had happened yet.  I had decided to go out of town to a baseball game on Saturday, so I couldn’t write live reactions about the teams who played on Saturday. 

On Sunday, I barely made it back in time for the game, and then Mondays are workdays for me whether I go into work or not.  My bosses check to make sure I’ve made enough progress on Tuesday mornings, and I have the type of job where I always have to spend time preparing for the next day the night before anyway.  Unfortunately, I don’t just clock in and clock out without having to think about it until I clock in again.

LSU-Florida St. Reaction and Historical Comparisons

Anyway, I do feel a little good right now that at least I didn’t pick LSU to win the SEC West or make the playoff.  I’m not throwing in the towel though.  There have been teams with rough starts who ended up doing well in the SEC, but it’s pretty rare to be one of the top teams nationally.  Ohio St. got run out of their own stadium against Virginia Tech in the first week of September 2014 before winning the first College Football Playoff, but that’s kind of the exception that proves the rule.  

Also, the Buckeyes had two months before they had to play a major-conference opponent who would finish with 9 wins or more.  That was a long time to fix the issues in the Virginia Tech game, and there was even a close call against a Penn St. team (which would finish 7-6) in the interim.  I think LSU has a lot less time.  Mississippi St., LSU’s opponent a week from today, will win 9 games or more.

In Columbia on October 6, 2012, Marcus Lattimore gained as many yards on the ground (109) as Georgia QB Aaron Murray gained in the air. LSU handed South Carolina its first loss the following week. The Bulldogs would win the SEC East over the Gamecocks and the Gators.

A couple of years before that, Georgia got blown out by South Carolina, 35-7. in early October but came just a couple of yards short of beating Alabama to win the SEC and make the BCS championship game (which they most likely would have won given how easily the Tide handled Notre Dame).  I think that’s a more realistic example for LSU to hope to follow (possibly making the SEC title game and playing better than last year).  Georgia of course had to overcome that game to win the East whereas LSU’s loss to Florida St. does not count in the SEC standings.  Unlike the Ohio St. example, the Bulldogs’ next big game (in hindsight and at the time) was just a couple of games later against Florida, who would finish 11-2.  The only bad thing about following that Georgia example would be having to wait another 10 years to actually win a national championship. 

I’ll update the Florida St. rivalry blog another time, but it’s just crazy how cursed LSU seems to be in the series.  Of course, I still think LSU would have done quite well if they had played the Seminoles annually from about 2001 to 2019 (minus a couple of losses to Jameis, I suppose).

Thoughts on Brian Kelly

I said I’m not throwing in the towel on this season.  I’m also not throwing in the towel on Brian Kelly.  This was Kelly’s 15^th game.  Ed Orgeron lost to Troy in his 13^th game in charge (two weeks after a 30-point loss at Mississippi St. that I still argue was worse).  Les Miles lost his 12^th game by 20 to a Georgia team that finished 10-3.  Say what you will about Miles and Orgeron after the respective national championships, but no one was whining about it taking too long to get there at the end of 2007 (Miles’ third year) or 2019 (Orgeron’s third full year) seasons.  By the way, 2014 was Urban Meyer’s third year at Ohio St., and Nick Saban didn’t win his first at Alabama until his third year (he had taken four years to win one at LSU).  So even if it’s safe to assume a national championship is off the table already, I never thought it was a highly realistic goal for this year anyway.

LSU Head Coach Brian Kelly went on a bit of a rant at the end of his press conference on Tuesday.

Kelly can be a smooth talker, so I don’t always hold too much stock in his press conferences and whatnot, but I liked his rant at the end of his week-opening press conference.  I disagree somewhat with faulting the enthusiasm gap, but I think it was a good message to put out there, and it showed he took onboard many of the issues fans and media pointed out.

“I could go through a number of different situations.  We don’t get to the chains on third and 5… We’ve got a drop on third and 6 trying to get upfield… We’re 4^th and 1 and we’re trying to make a play instead of reading what the defender is giving you.  I could elaborate on defense.  We’re spinning down a safety[, and] he’s watching the quarterback.  We could have been more creative with play-calling.  We could have been better defensively and [made fewer] spy calls and [brought] more pressure.  I could attack the whole thing.  The bottom line is I’ve got to get our football team thinking the right way and play[ing] with a competitive edge.” 

I tried to clean up some of the grammar.  He usually speaks better than that, but I’ll forgive it.  I’ll accept some grammatical hiccups in exchange for his not sounding like a politician sometimes.

Other Results and Reactions

At least Kelly has been overshadowed somewhat by the hysterics about Dabo after Clemson’s loss to Duke.  My prediction of those Tigers being the team to beat in the ACC isn’t looking too good right now.  But that 2014 Virginia Tech team was in the ACC and ended up losing 6 games, 5 of them in conference, so we shouldn’t rush to any conclusions about that conference either.  Even if Clemson continues to disappoint, I might still be right that the ACC champion will have a good shot at the Playoff though.

If I were a betting man (sports betting is still illegal where I live anyway), I would have taken Colorado +20.5.  Although I did leave TCU ranked, I wasn’t very convinced they were going to be a competitive team this year.  Deion performed better than many more experienced coaches in getting a bunch of transfers and other new players to support each other and have the needed enthusiasm.  Whatever happens this season, he definitely did something right in preparing for Week 1.

Colorado head coach Deion Sanders confers with his son, S Shiloh Sanders, on Saturday in Ft. Worth. Sanders’ other son, Shadeur, threw for 510 yards in the upset win.

I don’t believe in making drastic changes after one week unless necessary, so I’m not dropping LSU and Clemson from the top 25.  TCU was low enough that they will drop out though.  I don’t really have the time and energy to re-work the whole thing even if I wanted to.  I don’t really have a long list of teams that were just outside of the top 25 either. 

I also wanted to put some of the conference talk into perspective.  South Carolina has a much lower status in the SEC than North Carolina has in the ACC.  The Tar Heels were the ACC runners-up in 2015 and 2022 and represented the conference in the post-2020 Orange Bowl.  They would have been #2 in the conference had Notre Dame not temporarily joined.  The Gamecocks have only made one SEC championship game, and that was back in 2010.  They have only won 8 games or more twice since the 2013 season.

Florida is obviously a more successful program in the big picture than Utah is, but the Gators lost 5 SEC games (and two other games) last season and 6 the season before, going 6-7 overall both seasons.  Utah went 10-4 in each of the last two seasons, winning the Pac-12 both years.  I know Florida beat Utah anyway last year, but you can’t expect the SEC to win every game like that.

LSU-Florida St. was the only game of the three that was an apples-to-apples comparison. 

It is interesting that the Pac-12 is disintegrating at the same the conference had the most successful Week 1; but other than Colorado, nothing is too impressive based on recent seasons.

I considered ranking Purdue in preseason, and Fresno St. beat the Boilermakers on the road. I thought it was good to make sure one team from outside of the major conferences (and Notre Dame) was included. I also considered Wyoming, which beat Texas Tech; but the Cowboys rarely sustain their early-season successes whereas Fresno St. is often one of the top teams in the Mountain West. I also take overtime wins with more of a grain of salt.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Georgia	2
3	Michigan	3
4	Alabama	4
5	Florida St.	11
6	Southern CA	7
7	Penn St.	8
8	Utah	9
9	Texas	10
10	Tennessee	12
11	Notre Dame	13
12	Ole Miss	14
13	Oregon	15
14	Duke	—
15	LSU	5
16	Clemson	6
17	Kansas St.	18
18	Washington	21
19	UCLA	16
20	N Carolina	—
21	Oregon St.	20
22	Mississippi St.	23
23	Pittsburgh	24
24	Fresno St.	—
25	Colorado	—

Out of Top 25: (17) TCU, (19) S. Carolina, (22) Boise St., (25) Texas Tech

The College Football Playoff Picture with Two Games Left

I wanted to start by saying happy Thanksgiving. I thought it was best to get this out today since there is only one game, which is probably not of crucial importance.

Because they have been so dominant until now, Georgia is the only one-loss team I can see finishing ahead of either LSU with two wins in the final games or USC with two wins in the final games.  The loser of Ohio St.-Michigan will not have anything on their resume similar to Georgia’s wins over Oregon and Tennessee.  It could be an interesting argument if TCU loses or if both LSU and USC lose though. I don’t automatically discount non-champions (even with the same number of losses), but I believe they should be looked at more skeptically.

Strength of Schedule

I touched on this last week, but something that many basic fans either don’t grasp or don’t bother to look into is how much schedules vary.  Most conferences are not like the Big XII where it’s a pure round robin; but even in the Big XII, there are still three non-conference games.

I wanted to go over who is on the schedule of the following teams that have a realistic chance at the playoff.  I’ll go over the top four teams of the respective conferences and the biggest non-conference game.  I’ll mention TCU last because I think most people’s sense of their schedule is accurate.

LSU: Georgia (plays December 3), Alabama (win), Tennessee (loss), Ole Miss (win), Florida St. (loss).

Georgia: LSU (plays December 3), Alabama (did not play), Tennessee (win), Ole Miss (did not play), Oregon (win).

USC: Oregon (not played; possible conference championship opponent {NPPCCO}), Washington (NPPCCO), Utah (loss), UCLA (win), Notre Dame (play on Saturday).

Ohio St.: Michigan (plays Saturday), Penn St. (win), Iowa (win, may play again), Purdue (NPPCCO), Notre Dame (win).

Michigan: Ohio St. (plays Saturday), Penn St. (win), Iowa (win, may play again), Purdue (NPPCCO), Connecticut (win).

Clemson: North Carolina (plays December 3), Florida St. (win), Pitt (did not play), Duke (did not play), Notre Dame (loss).

TCU has beaten the following: Kansas St., Texas, Oklahoma St., Baylor, and Texas Tech.  Out of conference, the best win was over 6-5 SMU.  As I discussed in the last blog, the Horned Frogs will play either Kansas St. or Texas for a second time in the championship game. 

Former walk-on Stetson Bennett IV (pictured above throwing on the run against Florida in Jacksonville last month) helped lead Georgia to its first national championship since 1980 and has the Bulldogs well-positioned for another.

Early Resume Comparison

I’m not making predictions about the remaining games, but I’ll discuss the teams as if I’m comparing them at the end of the season.  For instance, if I say LSU will have beaten Georgia, what I’m talking about is the only scenario in which LSU is a contender. I don’t expect LSU to come particularly close to beating Georgia.

The committee does not consider the wins a team would have at the end of the year, or Clemson and USC would be higher.  Those are the only two above who have two really decent opponents left.  I think it’s harder to have to win successive games like that.  Even moreso with USC because it would be three strong wins in a row: UCLA, Notre Dame, and then the #2 Pac-12 team.

If Iowa beats Nebraska, which is highly likely, LSU and TCU will be the only teams to have played every other top-five team of their respective conference.  I do think the quality of LSU’s top opponents would make up for the extra loss if TCU were to lose a game.

I know it doesn’t seem like either Big Ten team would be missing a big resume bullet point by not playing Purdue, but Purdue has one fewer loss than Illinois, which led Michigan with about one second left on the clock last week.  Also, if you’re not really missing any competition by not playing one of the top five teams of your 14-team conference, that doesn’t say much about your conference schedule.

As I suggested, I’ll be impressed by USC if the Trojans manage to win the next two weeks, and I would not be bitter about it if they were to edge out LSU.  I tip my hat to the committee for having LSU #5 right now.  I think it shows they understand the lists above, and if the last two games barely put USC ahead of LSU, so be it. 

That’s not to say I don’t think LSU would have an argument.  One key point is USC’s loss thus far.  Utah lost to a mediocre SEC team and beat USC.  That suggests to me that USC would have more than one conference loss if they played at least four teams who finished higher in the SEC than Florida did.

This comparison only takes place if LSU wins, so we would either have an SEC non-champion having blown out USC’s best win at the beginning of the year or we would have USC avoiding one of the more dangerous teams in its conference.

Teams Who May Lose Late and Be Considered; Why Clemson Might Deserve a Spot if They Do

Putting LSU aside, Ohio St. would be a very interesting contender if they lose to Michigan.  I think they would compensate for having two fewer games against the Big Ten West as a result of the non-conference game against Notre Dame.  This argument becomes even stronger if USC is knocked out of the running by Notre Dame.

Ohio St. WR Emeka Egbuka stretches for a touchdown against Notre Dame in September in Columbus. Although the Irish have had a couple of ugly losses since then, this still may be a key win for the Buckeyes.

One-loss Michigan would be a poor contender against anyone but a one-loss TCU though.  I know Connecticut beat Liberty and became bowl-eligible, but Connecticut is not a good team.  TCU is the only team in this discussion with a similar lacking best non-conference opponent.

Maybe the committee disagrees, but I would prefer a one-loss Clemson to a one-loss Michigan.  The ACC wouldn’t be the reason, but playing two non-conference opponents with the kind of quality wins that South Carolina and Notre Dame have would make the difference for me. It would be two good non-conference opponents to zero.

As I discussed in the previous blog, one reason I give Clemson more credit so far than others do is if you play a series of let’s call them high-medium teams (not ranked but above average) such as Louisville and Wake Forest, you’re still exposing yourself to risk of a loss to a higher degree with each game.  Just ask Tennessee and Ole Miss.  They didn’t show signs of being vulnerable to teams like that over the previous month or two, but they got to the point of playing too many teams that were high-medium or better and apparently didn’t get up enough for every one. 

On the other hand, based on the above, you can imagine what the committee has probably said.  Even if these other teams are in equal conferences (the ACC is probably the worst of the bunch), Clemson has only played one team in the top five of its conference, and they lost to the only team they’ve played so far who would be in the top five of their conference.  

This conversation would probably only come up in seeding, but I wanted to address it anyway.  Some are assuming that Georgia will definitely be ahead of LSU even if they lose to the Tigers, but I’m not so sure.  If Georgia had to play Alabama and Ole Miss, it’s certainly possible they’d be entering the championship with a loss.  Right now, I think the non-conference game against Oregon resolves any doubt; but it becomes a more open question if both Oregon and Florida St. have three losses at the end of the season.  This wouldn’t matter in my ratings, but obviously how that SEC championship game plays out would influence this discussion.

Week 8 Reactions and Top 25

This was almost completely written over the weekend (and I updated the records on the Ole Miss blog), but it was just one of those weeks where everything took twice as long as it should have.  I have a salaried position; so if things take longer, that just takes away my free time.

Ole Miss @ LSU and the Final Score

LSU and the top 25 finally aren’t completely separate topics, but I’ll address and elaborate upon that game first and most extensively.  LSU had the best knockoff of a top team (I wanted to say upset, but it wasn’t one) in the win over Ole Miss.  I had the Rebels 5^th and LSU 19^th, but the major polls had the Rebels 7^th and LSU unranked.  Las Vegas and I both picked LSU to win though.  I heard that the amateur bettors (misled by polls and sports shows, I guess) picked Ole Miss in droves to keep the line close.  Ole Miss may still make a New Years Six bowl though, because I don’t know who other than Alabama is likely to beat them.  The Egg Bowl may be close, but Texas A&M and Arkansas look bad more than they look good these days.

I did pick a much closer game, but it could have been 28-10 at the half (rather than 20-17) without a great play by Jaray Jenkins to catch an underthrown touchdown pass through double coverage and without Ole Miss settling for two field goals.  Ole Miss would have also scored in the final minutes of the third quarter without an interception by Joe Foucha in the end zone on a second-and-goal from the 9.  Despite being much shorter range, that was even more of an underthrow than there was for the Jenkins touchdown (due in part to the pressure on the quarterback). 

It was the opposite of the Tennessee game, where all the breaks before and after halftime went the other way and put the game out of reach for the Tigers.

I’ll explain further why I don’t think I was terribly wrong in my estimation of the Ole Miss offense or the LSU defense; but I did say that if the game got to a point where Ole Miss needed to rely on Jaxson Dart (more on him in a moment), they were probably in trouble.  When LSU scored on the ensuing drive after the interception that kept it a 4-point game, I didn’t see a realistic way back for the Rebels.

LSU could have done the 4-down kneel to avoid the last touchdown late in the fourth quarter, and that would have put them only three points over the 35 I predicted; but I don’t think scoring on a run up the middle is running up the score.  If you had told me LSU would have the ball for nearly a quarter more than Ole Miss did, I would have increased LSU’s score on that basis too. 

On the other hand, if you had told me how many total yards the two teams would have, I might not have changed my score prediction.  LSU did a much better job of making their yards lead to points.  That hasn’t always been the case.

Regardless, if you followed the score I predicted, you won money on both the point spread (LSU -1.5) and the over/under (64), so I don’t feel bad that LSU won by about 20 more points than I thought they would.

Freshman LSU LB Harold Perkins pursues Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart Saturday in Tiger Stadium. Both Dart and head coach Lane Kiffin commented on Perkins’ impact on Ole Miss, particularly in passing situations.

Jaxson Dart

I do want to say that I didn’t mean my remarks in the preview about Dart to be insulting.  I actually like him, and I’m glad he transferred from USC to a team I don’t mind cheering for most of the time.  I just thought he and the offense as a whole had some limitations that LSU could exploit.  I watched him play against BYU last year, and they nearly won that game even though it was toward the end of a terrible season for the Trojans.  I still remember his positive attitude during and after that game.  I also respect the way he hung in there Saturday despite all the hits.  His interview with the media struck a good tone as both an opponent and as a teammate.  He seems more mature than Lane Kiffin does, to be honest. Dart was also one of the scholar athletes of the game, so it’s OK if I’m correct that he’s not one of the best quarterbacks in college football.  He’ll probably be fine if he doesn’t go pro.

Rating LSU, Ole Miss, and the ACC Atlantic

As in the polls, there was too much of a gap for LSU to surpass Ole Miss in the rankings regardless of the final score.  Even though Florida St. has only lost to ranked teams (more on their division in a moment), their three losses are too much of a drag on LSU.  Although LSU’s schedule otherwise has been better than Ole Miss’s, there is still the FCS win over Southern and the win over New Mexico, probably one of the five worst FBS teams. 

I’m a little surprised only one voter in either poll voted for Clemson as #1.  I know their wins haven’t been by large margins, but two different teams (Wake Forest and Syracuse) can credit their only loss to Clemson.  North Carolina St. only has two losses, one to Clemson and one to a team (Syracuse) whose only loss is to Clemson. Florida St. has three losses: Clemson, Wake Forest, and North Carolina St.  There are no ties, so all of these other teams had to account for wins against one another at some point; but no outside team has beaten any of the five.  I think they’ll all be favored in the remaining games not against each other also.

After four turnovers by otherwise-reliable offensive starters, Clemson backup QB Cade Klubnik (2) led the Tigers to just another routine win over an undefeated opponent. It was Clemson’s 38th straight home win, an ACC record.

I do think the winner of Tennessee and Georgia (if undefeated) will likely overcome Clemson at some point.  Right now, I think Tennessee would win; but I believe in getting credit for the wins that have actually happened once they occur and not before.  That’s why I wouldn’t have wanted Ole Miss higher than they were.  Just because they would eventually have a mostly SEC schedule doesn’t mean they should have gotten special treatment when they had only played a few SEC teams, two of them in the bottom fourth of the conference.

Additional Top 25 Commentary

Ohio St. moved down and back up based on something I had entered incorrectly into the computer formula, so their increase isn’t apropos of anything.  By the way, it’s also possible that the eventual winner of Ohio St. and Michigan could pass up Clemson. 

Another possibility of Clemson being passed up without losing would be after the conference championship games.  Right now, North Carolina (who lost to Notre Dame and barely beat Appalachian St.) leads the ACC Coastal by a game and a half over Duke and Georgia Tech. 

Teams like Illinois and Utah didn’t do anything wrong, but you can get passed up when you don’t play.

Tulane, Liberty, and the aforementioned North Carolina join the top 25 for the first time this year.  I don’t think they would beat now-unranked teams like Texas (who lost to Oklahoma St.) and Mississippi St. (although Liberty versus Mississippi St. would be an interesting game given the two head coaches); but none of the three has shied away from competition, and they only have one loss apiece.  Newly arrived Troy has two losses, which is why they are the last of the new teams, but one of those losses was after giving up a Hail Mary touchdown to Appalachian St. (making them just barely worse than North Carolina through the lens of the common opponent anyway) and the other was to Ole Miss.

Kentucky only fell out due to a bye week, and Mississippi St. only fell out due to losing to Alabama, so either could be back shortly.  Another SEC team, South Carolina, is getting close to consideration for a ranking.  Other than the ones who just fell out, other teams in my top 35 are Kansas St., Coastal Carolina, Texas-San Antonio, Houston, and Cincinnati. 

For the full list of 131, follow the link above to “Knights’ Ratings” or go here.  I’ve now included conference ratings (simply based on average rating) below the team ratings.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Clemson	1
2	Tennessee	2
3	Texas Christian	6
4	Georgia	3
5	Ohio St.	7
6	Alabama	8
7	Michigan	4
8	Oregon	13
9	Ole Miss	5
10	USC	11
11	UCLA	9
12	Syracuse	10
13	LSU	19
14	Oklahoma St.	20
15	Penn St.	16
16	Wake Forest	14
17	Illinois	12
18	Tulane	—
19	Liberty	—
20	N Carolina St.	18
21	Utah	15
22	Oregon St.	24
23	N Carolina	—
24	Troy	—
25	Maryland	25
—	Mississippi St	17
—	Texas	21
—	Purdue	22
—	Kentucky	23

Week 2 Top 25 and LSU (P)review

LSU Recap and Preview

I will not be giving any details about the Bulldogs, just about what is going on with LSU. I have updated my Rivalry Series blog in light of the upcoming game though.

LSU has either lost to or barely beat the Bulldogs in every game recently except for the two years in which Joe Burrow was the starting quarterback.  If we win at all, I’ll be satisfied.  If we win somewhat comfortably, I’ll be very encouraged.  A loss won’t necessarily be devastating, but LSU should beat unranked SEC opponents at home (even though I think the Bulldogs should be ranked) even in a mediocre year.  I know it’s easier said than done, but it should be an expectation.  

Malik Nabers carries the ball in the fourth quarter last year in Starkville. Nabers was the leading wide receiver in the game against Southern on Saturday.

One of the LSU shows found the biggest LSU naysayer they could.  Even he picked LSU to win this game (and lose all the other SEC games).  So while I do think the Bulldogs are underrated, I won’t be resting easy if LSU loses. 

Usually I’d barely mention an FCS opponent, but I hope it gave the coaches more data to make better decisions in the future.  What was done in the Southern game may also be a bit of a preview of what they’ll try to do against Mississippi St.  I’m not going to preview the Bulldogs though.

LSU did shore up some concerns in the game against Southern even though obviously what works against Southern may not work in ANY future games.  I think we can compare it to an NFL preseason game.  Cuts to an NFL roster and to some extent decisions about plays and the depth chart are made based on performances against opposition players who themselves often aren’t going to be playing a whole lot in the NFL.  Similarly, most Southern players could not get meaningful playing time at an SEC school (though a couple of former FCS players play for Florida St. and at least one plays for LSU).  But I think going through the motions of a game against at least some competitive athletic talent can tell you a little bit. 

It certainly gives you a basis for comparison of one player to another.  It provides some data points by which to determine who plays where in future games.  Coaches have a better idea of whom they can trust during the game.  You can’t always know that from practices and scrimmages alone.

I don’t know if the new center Charles Turner will be better than Garrett Dellinger, the center in the Florida St. game; but I didn’t notice any problems with snaps, and the coaches seem to like how he communicated.  Dellinger will still get a lot of playing time, but it will just be at guard instead.  I don’t think anyone is pretending we know how well Turner will block an SEC defensive lineman at center because he did an adequate job against Southern, but they could see how he handled the game environment and worked with his teammates.

Jayden Daniels did leave the game early enough that I think we were able to get some information about where he is compared to the backup Nussmeier.  Kelly said before the Florida St. game that they were 1-A and 1-B rather than 1 and 2 on the depth chart.  I’m pretty sure that was a lie.  We didn’t see Nussmeier at all in the Florida St. game even after the Tigers.

LSU only came up with 3 points in the first half; and although Nussmeier ended up throwing for more yards against Southern, he completed only 59% of his passes compared to Daniels’s 91%.  Daniels did not commit a turnover in either game, and Nussmeier threw two interceptions. Daniels threw three touchdowns, and Nussmeier threw none.  I don’t always think QBR is that great of a stat, but when one guy is near 100 and the other is under 20, I think that sums it up pretty well.

Again, I’m not banking on this counting for anything; but the starters did absolutely all they could.  It has been 129 years since LSU first played intercollegiate football, and the Tigers had never scored 37 points in a quarter before.  It only took 40 seconds of the second quarter to get to 44 points.  As for the defense, Southern didn’t score until one of those Nussmeier interceptions was returned late in the third quarter.  The LSU defense didn’t give up points until about 8 minutes remained in the game.  That was probably the third or fourth team by then. 

Micah Baskerville (23) blocks a punt late in the first quarter against Southern in Baton Rouge on Saturday.

Some players who weren’t even starters in the first game played great.  For instance, the game ball went to Micah Baskerville, who blocked a punt (which resulted in a safety) and returned an interception for a touchdown.  I’m told he was only in about a dozen plays against Florida St.  I don’t care if it was against easy competition, doing both of those things in the same season is hard to do, not to mention the same quarter.  Freshman 5-star recruit Harold Perkins, Jr., whom LSU just barely kept from going to Texas A&M, had a good game too with 7 tackles.

Malik Nabors was relieved of punt-return duties after two turnovers in that role against Florida St., but it was nice to see him score a touchdown on one pass and go for 60 yards on another.  Even if the latter were his only catch, Nabors would have led both teams in receiving yards.  It’s good that the ball was spread around by both quarterbacks too.  Hopefully it will keep the receivers more engaged and facilitate better communication and trust than we saw against Florida St.

Also, importantly, LSU had no major injuries and a couple of key players are actually available against Mississippi St. when they were not against Southern.  This includes RB Jon Emery, Jr., and DE BJ Ojulari.  DE Ali Gaye was suspended for a half for targeting, so he will be back as well.

Top 3

This first section ties into last week about certain SEC opponents looking more like winnable games than they did at first blush, but it’s also relevant as to why I’ve made a change at #1.  I did think it was a little unfair that Alabama had to play Georgia in a rematch, but maybe it was the SEC championship game that was the aberration last year.

Alabama has rebounded from looking vulnerable and even losing in September before; but even if by some miracle LSU had been able to convince Saban to come back (there is a contingent of LSU fans who had been trying to orchestrate that for 15 years… I think they finally gave up now that Kelly has a 9-figure contract and Saban is 70 years old), we probably would have had to start thinking about the future by now anyway.  Alabama may still win the national title, but the close win over Texas can be added to the following somewhat concerning close games last season (with final record of opponent and margin of victory):

7-6 Florida, 2 points

8-4 Texas A&M, LOST by 3 points

6-7 LSU, 6 points

9-4 Arkansas, 7 points

6-7 Auburn, 2 points

I haven’t changed my mind about Oregon (Georgia’s big win) being overrated in preseason.  I would have liked to have seen more Georgia Bulldog offense against Samford, but the defense can’t do anything better than a shutout. 

The reason I made the change is that Alabama won by a single point (and as I mentioned probably deserved to lose), and obviously the shine is taken off of Ohio St.’s win over Notre Dame given the Marshall game.  A team can win by one possession in a fluke, but the Irish had to score in the final moments of the game just to make it close.  So that’s really a similar type of game to what the Irish did in Columbus.

Remainder of Top 25

The rest of the top 10 remained intact.  Kentucky had a decisive road win against Florida, so that’s why the Wildcats moved up so much.  BYU’s win over Baylor was at home in overtime, and Baylor was one of the teams I was doubtful about (along with Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St.).  The Cougars still got credit for beating a ranked team but not as much as what Kentucky did.

Apart from Baylor (whom I didn’t want to drop double digits for an understandable close loss), the rest of the top 20 is made up of teams who moved up by default.

Marshall is obvious.  Oregon St. may not be, but I had Boise St. as one of the top unranked teams going into the season, and the Beavers beat the Broncos handily in Week 1.  Last week, Oregon St. went on the road to Fresno St. (who won 10 games last year) and won, albeit in a close contest.

Oregon St. WR Silas Bolden escapes a Fresno St. defender during a touchdown play in the first half in Fresno on Saturday.

Tennessee wasn’t great against Pittsburgh, but it’s still a Power 5 road win, so I gave the Vols the Panthers’ former spot.

Houston was also on my waiting list in preseason, so I went ahead and gave Texas Tech a spot for beating the Cougars.

Iowa St. didn’t look a whole lot better than South Dakota St. had against Iowa (both games in Iowa City); but the Jackrabbits were one of the best FCS teams last year.  As for the Cyclones, while they had needed the Hawkeyes to miss a field goal to escape with the win, I was still impressed by the defense.  Iowa’s one score was on a very short field.

I give Texas A&M some credit for their defense against Appalachian St. (who put up 40 points in one quarter against North Carolina after all) as well and considered leaving the Aggies in the Top 25 instead.  Although I do think the Aggies would likely beat the Cylones, 2-0 beats 1-1.  Texas A&M will go ahead of the Cyclones with a win this weekend anyway, so I also don’t mind giving Iowa St. the benefit of the doubt for now.

Speaking of the Aggies, I learned a couple of facts I wanted to share. (1) Jimbo Fisher makes more than 20 times as much per year as Appalachian St. head coach Shawn Clark. (2) Texas A&M has 56 players who were either 4- or 5-star recruits out of high school, but Appalachian St. has just 1.

Rank	Team	Last
1	Georgia	3
2	Alabama	1
3	Ohio St.	2
4	Clemson	4
5	Michigan St.	5
6	Michigan	6
7	Ole Miss	7
8	Arkansas	8
9	Oklahoma St.	9
10	Oklahoma	10
11	Kentucky	20
12	B. Young	17
13	Cincinnati	13
14	Miss. St.	16
15	TX Christian	18
16	N. Carolina St.	19
17	U. Miami	21
18	Wake Forest	22
19	Baylor	11
20	Maryland	25
21	Marshall	—
22	Oregon St.	—
23	Tennessee	—
24	Texas Tech	—
25	Iowa St.	—
—	Texas A&M	12
—	Notre Dame	14
—	Iowa	15
—	Pittsburgh	23
—	Florida	24

2021 Week 4 Top 25

rank team last
1 Alabama 1
2 Georgia 2
3 Oregon 5
4 Penn St. 4
5 Florida 7
6 Ohio St. 8
7 Cincinnati 6
8 Iowa 3
9 B. Young 9
10 Coastal Car. 13
11 Arkansas 17
12 Oklahoma 11
13 Notre Dame 15
14 Oklahoma St. 16
15 Texas 19
16 Ole Miss 20
17 Michigan 22
18 Michigan St. 23
19 Texas A&M 14
20 Baylor —
21 Fresno St. 21
22 Louisville —
23 C. Florida —
24 UCLA 25
25 San Diego St. —

Out of rankings: (10) Clemson, (12) Liberty, (18) Iowa St., (24) Wyoming

Sorry this is so late.  Normally I would push a blog back at this hour, but it had to be posted given that it’s now Saturday on the east coast.

I don’t usually drop a team as far as I did Clemson, but that’s the danger with leaving a 1-loss team in the top 25 at this time of the season.  Two losses is too high a percentage of the season to stay ranked, but at the same time losing to what looks like one of the best teams so far shouldn’t necessarily knock you out of the top 10.

Liberty also fell all the way out, but I don’t think I’ll get much push-back there.

I can’t get on board with some of the other ACC teams I’ve seen getting votes right now.  North Carolina looks bad.  North Carolina St. lost to Mississippi St.  In its only games of note, Wake Forest beat Virginia, who has another loss and it’s to North Carolina, and Florida St.  No need to elaborate about the ’Noles. 

Some lazy pollsters ranked Auburn, but the Tigers should at least go win in Baton Rouge if they want to show there is something special about this year’s team as compared to others from the Plains in recent years.  Maybe Penn St. was a moral victory in the eyes of some, but if there are undefeated teams with actual victories over opponents of some quality, I’ll take them instead.

Iowa struggled against an opponent Vanderbilt beat, so I had to knock them down a bit.  Plus Iowa St. lost again.  I did give Baylor credit for the win over the Cyclones, but again I don’t think it’s appropriate to rank a two-loss team at this point in the season.

Louisville LB Jaylin Alderman made his only snap of the game count when he returned an interception for a touchdown to break the tie in the final 30 seconds against Central Florida.

I’m giving some delayed credit to Louisville, who beat Central Florida two weeks ago.  I took the Knights out but didn’t put the Cardinals in.  Some other teams fell below Central Florida and Louisville last week more than either adding anything significant to their respective resumes.  Reminder that the Knights beat Boise St., who had a strong win over Utah St. last week.  The Broncos did suffer one other loss, but it was to Oklahoma St., so they may be ranked in the coming weeks if they continue to do well in the Mountain West.

Speaking of which, I decided to take Wyoming out (Ball St. isn’t as good as i thought they were previously; also, the Cowboys barely beat Connecticut) and replace them with another Mountain West team, San Diego St.  The Aztecs are 2-0 against the Pac-12, although Arizona barely counts.  Utah is a respectable win though, at least based on information available so far.

2021 Week 1 Top 25

I’m still a bit thrown by last year’s COVID season. I was on vacation recently, but even if I weren’t, I don’t really know how to do a preseason ranking when I had no real method of comparing teams last year with vastly different lengths of seasons and many major-conference teams playing one or no inter-conference games. Also, because of that vacation, I didn’t get to complete my blog about the previous academic year. I’ll get to it, but I didn’t want to just put up a list without talking about it.

The last time I didn’t have a previous season of my own rankings to look at was the first time I started ranking teams myself back in 1995; so like then, I’m just relying on a vague notion of how good teams are as reported by others.

Since Clemson lost, I felt it was only right to put the two most credible teams on an annual basis who aren’t Clemson in the first two spots. Those are Alabama and Ohio St. For #3, why not the team who beat Clemson? Georgia is also no stranger to big games and major bowls in recent seasons. Tulane was theoretically the home team, I’m not on the Boomer Schooner after a 5-point win over the Wave in Norman. I have to stay with the current SEC even though that makes three of four. #4 for me is Texas A&M based on last year’s 10-1 season and Orange Bowl win combined with a lack of drama in Week 1.

In what was supposed to be the big heavyweight match-up, there was one touchdown.. by a defensive player (Christopher Smith, #29). Either things are changing in college football or maybe they’re not such heavyweights after all.

Clemson needs to find more offense somewhere, but I can’t find any other credible #5 team at the moment.

Cincinnati also only lost one game last year on the way to the Peach Bowl, also losing to Georgia in that game, so they’re #6.

Penn St. started out with a true road game against a good program in Wisconsin, so I’d like to give them credit. Unlike the polls, I don’t feel some obligation to only move them up a limited number of spots.

Iowa also won an early Big Ten contest between ranked teams, beating Indiana at home. Indiana probably isn’t a huge player on the national scene permanently, but it’s something.

Florida and Oklahoma seemed like two appropriate teams to round out the top 10 since both went into the Cotton Bowl as top 10 teams last season. Since Oklahoma won by 35, I’ll give the Sooners the nod for #9. Tulane isn’t great, but they went .500 going into the bowls last season, so they may be better than Northern Iowa (who lost narrowly to Iowa St.), for instance.

In that process, I’ve ranked two teams who played 10 or more games last year with only a single loss: Texas A&M and Cincinnati.

Next I’m just going to rank the teams in that category who haven’t lost yet this year. Again, I don’t operate with similar constraints to the polls. Even though polls technically don’t matter anymore there is still this custom of not ranking teams without major conference schedules very high because what if they keep winning? Because later someone might have to cogitate a bit and not just automatically move teams up for not losing. That doesn’t bother me at all.

Also, I’ve already listed almost every team that finished ranked with two losses last season if that team has not yet lost this season. Other than Iowa St., the highest-ranked team in the AP poll with 3 losses (Texas) was only #19, so I don’t feel like I’m being unfair to teams with better schedules than these.

11. Liberty, which won the non-major Super Bowl over the next team…
12. Coastal Carolina
13. BYU

Liberty handed Coastal Carolina its only loss last season on this blocked field goal in overtime by #55 Elijah James.

Maybe it’s because when I first watched college football, there were still ties, but overtime wins don’t sit well with me. I don’t regard those as 100% wins. But Notre Dame didn’t lose in Week 1 and the Irish did only lose two games last season, one to Clemson, so I’ll put them #14.

The next group is the 3-loss teams that finished ranked last season. Of those, I will put U. Miami last since they lost, but losing to Alabama isn’t really evidence the Hurricanes don’t belong.

15. Texas
16. Iowa St.
17. Oklahoma St.
18. U. Miami

The next two teams had really good seasons last year, especially for them, so I’m not going to be too harsh as a result of losing to teams already ranked above.

19. Indiana
20. UL-Lafayette

So far, I have not considered any Pac-12 teams. They didn’t play enough of a season last year and certainly didn’t do enough against other conferences to warrant inclusion. The only two that I will rank happen to be cross-town rivals. Oregon played in a major bowl with only 4 wins. In my view, they shouldn’t have even been considered. Beating Fresno by 7 in Week 1 this year doesn’t make me feel any differently.

21. USC
22. UCLA

Two other teams won bowl games last year after entering the bowls with one loss. They didn’t play full schedules either, but I think they deserve some recognition. They also happen to be in the same conference as one another.

23. Ball St.
24. Buffalo

Looking at last year and the preseason consensus, the best team that I won’t rank is probably North Carolina. I won’t rank the Tar Heels because they lost to…

25. Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech QB Braxton Burmeister ran for one touchdown and threw for another in the first half, but the Hokies’ game against North Carolina was also largely a defensive struggle. The Tar Heels were defeated by a score of 17-10.

I think this is a reasonable mix of teams from various regions and conferences giving due regard to last season’s level of success and the Week 1 opponents. You might not like which teams I put in what order, but this makes a lot more sense to me than the way the polls do things.

Most if not all of the non-major teams would probably finish near the bottom of the SEC, but we don’t know how good much of the SEC is right now. LSU might beat every single one of the non-majors above, but they lost to a team that rightly was not ranked. LSU and the other SEC teams rightly were not ranked last season and have done nothing yet to show things are different this season. Ole Miss had a great bowl win last year, but they still finished behind LSU in the SEC. Lamar Jackson hasn’t played for Louisville in a few years, so I’m not giving the Rebels (are we still allowed to call them that?) a spot in the top 25 for beating the Cardinals.

I think after one game it’s OK to still largely consider last season. Also, many of the non-major teams were willing to play whomever was available. It’s not their fault that conferences like the SEC wouldn’t even give them a chance to schedule opponent from that conference. It would be different if some of these conferences played 10 games against the SEC and lost every single one of them last season. I don’t think it’s appropriate to look back to before last season to support rankings this season.

Also, since I’m not considering any rankings from last season official, I want to give credit to those teams that took advantage of the opening last season provided to show something special. UL-Lafayette, for instance, deserves recognition even though I don’t think they’ll ever be the best team in the state talent-wise or a serious national contender. They couldn’t play an SEC opponent last year, so they played a Big XII opponent, and not even a close one. Still they traveled there (to Ames to play Iowa St.) and won. I’m not going to take that away from them because they lost to another well-regarded Big XII team to start out this season.

If the Cajuns deserve to be where I put them, then teams that didn’t lose their opener are appropriately placed here too.

CFP Gets It Wrong; LSU Finishes Strong

I’ll get to LSU, but first I want to say it’s ridiculous that two days after getting exposed by Clemson in a game that wasn’t even competitive after the first quarter, Notre Dame is being included in the College Football Playoff.

The only reason Notre Dame is even being considered is the fact that Trevor Lawrence didn’t play in the first Notre Dame-Clemson game, and the Irish still needed overtime in that one.  I don’t want to say never, but everything on your resume should be almost perfect to excuse any title-game loss, not to mention a blowout.  I know the Irish saved face a little with the touchdown with 8 minutes left, but 34-3 at that point is a blowout.

Who’s the #2 big win for Notre Dame once you admit #1 was a fluke?  North Carolina?  Congrats, Notre Dame is right up there with Florida St. and Virginia, both of whom beat the Heels!  How close did Florida St. and Virginia come to the semifinals?  For some reason I’m not seeing them in the top 10.

I’m not saying I’m impressed with Ohio St. or Texas A&M either, but it was inevitable in this type of season to get some questionable entries to fill out the top 4.  Ohio St. barely had to play football at all, and there isn’t much reason to think A&M would do better against Alabama in a rematch than they did the first time; but at least in A&M’s case that loss is more than two days old.  At least Ohio St. didn’t have to get extremely lucky on timing and have to win in overtime against Northwestern.  They were a little lucky to escape the Indiana game with a win, but does anyone think the Hoosiers win a rematch?  Anyone should have seen the outcome of Notre Dame-Clemson coming a mile away though.

Texas A&M WR Caleb Chapman gains yards after pass against Florida in October in what turned out to be the Aggies’ best win of the season. Chapman accounted for 151 of A&M’s 338 passing yards in the 41-38 win.

I don’t know if A&M took a position on this, but they should be furious with the SEC office for not agreeing to any non-conference games and waiting until September 26 to start the season.  The ACC could get the hype machine going on Clemson, Notre Dame, North Carolina, U. Miami, etc.  No one should have been impressed by Clemson beating the Citadel 49-0 or Notre Dame beating South Florida 52-0, but it looks a lot better than not playing at all.  Then the ACC gave the SEC a chance to include non-conference rivalry games, and they wouldn’t do it.  It would be harder to have two ACC teams (Notre Dame was an ACC team this year) rather than two SEC teams if the SEC had a bunch of wins over ACC teams or just better non-conference wins in general.  Maybe A&M could have played a Big XII team while Notre Dame was beating up on South Florida.

The committee would have probably let Ohio St. in with three wins, but if you want to make it into the top 4 for the first time, the onus is on you to prove yourselves.  Apparently, A&M had no way to do that after they lost to Alabama and Notre Dame got lucky in the first Clemson game.

Anyway, I was happy to see the fight in LSU the last couple of weeks.  The Tigers completed the season with a win over North Carolina Ole Miss to finish 5-5. LSU won the turnover battle in the two games 9 to 1. Especially defensively, there were a lot of plays where young players didn’t quite know what they were doing; but I think things like turnovers and quarterback pressures showed that the players were into the game and playing hard. A bunch of players left the team, obviously, but I didn’t see what looked like players quitting on the coaching staff among those playing at the end of the year.  

If that were the case, I think we would have seen LSU give up after Ole Miss went on a 27-3 run.  I followed the game on ESPN, which keeps track of the odds of winning.  When LSU had the 16-point lead they had a 93% chance of winning.  After the 27-3 run, Ole Miss at one time had an 83% chance of winning.  LSU then flipped it to a 95% chance to win after two touchdowns in less than four minutes.  After all that, Rebel QB Matt Corral was still less than 30 yards away from engineering the winning touchdown drive before fumbling.

Last week, I mentioned how most of LSU’s top receivers were not even playing against Florida.  It was the same this week, but Kayshon Boutte looked every bit as good as the guys who weren’t there even on a twisted ankle.  On the winning touchdown, Boutte set an LSU record with 308 receiving yards.  That record had stood since 2001 (Josh Reed vs. Alabama).  There were a lot of good LSU receivers who couldn’t beat it.

LSU Freshman Kayshon Boutte scores the winning points on Saturday. The touchdown was also thrown by a freshman. The video is linked above if you didn’t see the play.

Going back to defense, I also think the turnover margin and successful QB pressures/sacks in the last two games are evidence that maybe Pelini didn’t completely forget how to be a major-college defensive coach either.  He just couldn’t transform a bunch of high school players into a typical LSU defense overnight. 

Normally when the other team scores 48 points, you don’t compliment the defense at all; but before the lack of depth was exposed in the second half, the LSU defense had held the Rebel offense to just two scores in the first half (they had 21 points at the half with the help of a kickoff return).

If LSU competes for a championship again in the near future, they will need to steal possessions like that to win the big games.  Simply knowing your assignments and being talented on defense isn’t going to keep an Alabama or a Clemson from scoring very often, so Pelini’s approach may be what LSU needs in such a situation.

Some people say everything is all downhill from here for off-field concerns, and maybe that’s true; but if so it’s weird that the season ended with such positives in the last two games.

Anyway, for now a win is a win. To update the series, the Tigers have now beaten the Rebels 5 times in a row overall and 6 in a row in Baton Rouge. LSU is 15-4 against Ole Miss going back to 2002. Ed Orgeron is 5-0 against his former employers as head coach. This was Lane Kiffin’s first meeting with LSU as head coach.