I got more views this week than I’ve gotten since the pandemic, so welcome to anyone who might be new here. Happy Veterans Day as well.
I thought about making this week the week where I removed the subjective input into the top 25 below (see here for the completely objective unweighted ratings as of right now), but the weighted rankings aren’t quite where I want them yet. This coming week may clear up a few things. I think the big game to watch will be in the SEC again, Alabama against Ole Miss. I’m not one to be sympathetic to Alabama; but win or lose it was going to be hard for them to physically and mentally recover from Saturday and play another road game that could help decide the SEC West (somehow LSU is in the driver’s seat now though).
Oregon-Washington is an interesting upset opportunity. The Huskies just beat a ranked Oregon St. team for their third straight win, and UO-UW is a rivalry game for both teams. They’re often the two best Pacific Northwest teams, especially now that Boise St. has reverted to mediocrity, and both teams are a little more high-profile than their respective in-state counterparts.
It will also be interesting to see if Clemson bounces back against Louisville. The Cardinals have won four in a row after a 2-3 start.
There are two other matchups of ranked teams according to the polls. TCU travels down the I-35 to Austin, and Central Florida visits New Orleans to play Tulane. I want to make sure not to over-rate TCU or Tulane for having good records but not playing great competition. Either they’ll earn their ranking a little bit better or they’ll prove the skeptics right.
Also, I thought there was enough overhaul going on this week as is with the two big SEC games and the instability of the ACC and the Big XII. It’s hard to balance record versus big games. I want to make sure teams like Alabama aren’t penalized too much for losses to very competitive teams; but if I lessen the effect of “good” losses, Tennessee could be as high as #2. I’m not sure that’s appropriate either.
With Arkansas’s loss to Liberty, the Big XII is starting to creep up on the SEC. We will know a lot more the last two weeks of the season though. Almost half of the SEC plays out of conference in two weeks, and then there are the annual rivalry games the following week. I at least expect Georgia to beat Georgia Tech, but anything can happen in the others: Kentucky-Louisville, Florida-Florida St., and South Carolina-Clemson.
Speaking of the Big XII and Rivalry Week, I like that KU and K-State are now playing one another at the end of the season unlike in prior years; and they’re both pretty good now. TCU will likely finish in first place in the Big XII regular season being that the Horned Frogs are two games ahead, but K-State is part of a 3-way tie for second with Baylor and Texas (who play one another during Rivalry Week). Kansas is tied for fourth with Oklahoma St. Every team has three games left. There are no late bye weeks or late out-of-conference games like there are in the SEC.
Among the conferences (these are listed after the team ratings), the Pac-12 and Big Ten were almost tied for a distant third, but they’re both rather top-heavy. The ACC is more split along divisional lines, and obviously the top ACC team took a big hit out of conference. At least the ACC is still one of the top five conferences. There is a big separation among the non-Power-5 conferences though. The American, the Sun Belt, and the independents are leaning toward respectability, while the CUSA, Mountain West, and MAC lag way behind.
Top 25
Rank | Team | Last |
1 | Georgia | 5 |
2 | Ohio St. | 2 |
3 | Texas Christian | 4 |
4 | Michigan | 6 |
5 | Tennessee | 3 |
6 | Clemson | 1 |
7 | UCLA | 10 |
8 | LSU | 13 |
9 | USC | 11 |
10 | Oregon | 9 |
11 | Alabama | 7 |
12 | Ole Miss | 8 |
13 | Utah | 14 |
14 | N Carolina St. | 23 |
15 | N Carolina | 20 |
16 | Tulane | 15 |
17 | Penn St. | 17 |
18 | Notre Dame | — |
19 | Texas | — |
20 | Kansas St. | 16 |
21 | Coastal Carolina | — |
22 | Syracuse | 18 |
23 | Florida St. | — |
24 | Troy | — |
25 | Liberty | 24 |
— | Illinois | 12 |
— | Oklahoma St. | 19 |
— | Oregon St. | 21 |
— | Wake Forest | 22 |
— | Maryland | 25 |
Alabama, Big XII, Clemson, College Football, Florida, Florida St., Georgia, Iowa, Kansas St., LSU, Michigan, Mississippi St., North Carolina, Notre Dame, Ohio St., Ole Miss, Oregon, Purdue, SEC, TCU, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Utah, Washington
The College Football Playoff Picture with Two Games Left
In College Football, College Football Playoff, Preview, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on November 24, 2022 at 5:43 PMI wanted to start by saying happy Thanksgiving. I thought it was best to get this out today since there is only one game, which is probably not of crucial importance.
Because they have been so dominant until now, Georgia is the only one-loss team I can see finishing ahead of either LSU with two wins in the final games or USC with two wins in the final games. The loser of Ohio St.-Michigan will not have anything on their resume similar to Georgia’s wins over Oregon and Tennessee. It could be an interesting argument if TCU loses or if both LSU and USC lose though. I don’t automatically discount non-champions (even with the same number of losses), but I believe they should be looked at more skeptically.
Strength of Schedule
I touched on this last week, but something that many basic fans either don’t grasp or don’t bother to look into is how much schedules vary. Most conferences are not like the Big XII where it’s a pure round robin; but even in the Big XII, there are still three non-conference games.
I wanted to go over who is on the schedule of the following teams that have a realistic chance at the playoff. I’ll go over the top four teams of the respective conferences and the biggest non-conference game. I’ll mention TCU last because I think most people’s sense of their schedule is accurate.
LSU: Georgia (plays December 3), Alabama (win), Tennessee (loss), Ole Miss (win), Florida St. (loss).
Georgia: LSU (plays December 3), Alabama (did not play), Tennessee (win), Ole Miss (did not play), Oregon (win).
USC: Oregon (not played; possible conference championship opponent {NPPCCO}), Washington (NPPCCO), Utah (loss), UCLA (win), Notre Dame (play on Saturday).
Ohio St.: Michigan (plays Saturday), Penn St. (win), Iowa (win, may play again), Purdue (NPPCCO), Notre Dame (win).
Michigan: Ohio St. (plays Saturday), Penn St. (win), Iowa (win, may play again), Purdue (NPPCCO), Connecticut (win).
Clemson: North Carolina (plays December 3), Florida St. (win), Pitt (did not play), Duke (did not play), Notre Dame (loss).
TCU has beaten the following: Kansas St., Texas, Oklahoma St., Baylor, and Texas Tech. Out of conference, the best win was over 6-5 SMU. As I discussed in the last blog, the Horned Frogs will play either Kansas St. or Texas for a second time in the championship game.
Early Resume Comparison
I’m not making predictions about the remaining games, but I’ll discuss the teams as if I’m comparing them at the end of the season. For instance, if I say LSU will have beaten Georgia, what I’m talking about is the only scenario in which LSU is a contender. I don’t expect LSU to come particularly close to beating Georgia.
The committee does not consider the wins a team would have at the end of the year, or Clemson and USC would be higher. Those are the only two above who have two really decent opponents left. I think it’s harder to have to win successive games like that. Even moreso with USC because it would be three strong wins in a row: UCLA, Notre Dame, and then the #2 Pac-12 team.
If Iowa beats Nebraska, which is highly likely, LSU and TCU will be the only teams to have played every other top-five team of their respective conference. I do think the quality of LSU’s top opponents would make up for the extra loss if TCU were to lose a game.
I know it doesn’t seem like either Big Ten team would be missing a big resume bullet point by not playing Purdue, but Purdue has one fewer loss than Illinois, which led Michigan with about one second left on the clock last week. Also, if you’re not really missing any competition by not playing one of the top five teams of your 14-team conference, that doesn’t say much about your conference schedule.
As I suggested, I’ll be impressed by USC if the Trojans manage to win the next two weeks, and I would not be bitter about it if they were to edge out LSU. I tip my hat to the committee for having LSU #5 right now. I think it shows they understand the lists above, and if the last two games barely put USC ahead of LSU, so be it.
That’s not to say I don’t think LSU would have an argument. One key point is USC’s loss thus far. Utah lost to a mediocre SEC team and beat USC. That suggests to me that USC would have more than one conference loss if they played at least four teams who finished higher in the SEC than Florida did.
This comparison only takes place if LSU wins, so we would either have an SEC non-champion having blown out USC’s best win at the beginning of the year or we would have USC avoiding one of the more dangerous teams in its conference.
Teams Who May Lose Late and Be Considered; Why Clemson Might Deserve a Spot if They Do
Putting LSU aside, Ohio St. would be a very interesting contender if they lose to Michigan. I think they would compensate for having two fewer games against the Big Ten West as a result of the non-conference game against Notre Dame. This argument becomes even stronger if USC is knocked out of the running by Notre Dame.
One-loss Michigan would be a poor contender against anyone but a one-loss TCU though. I know Connecticut beat Liberty and became bowl-eligible, but Connecticut is not a good team. TCU is the only team in this discussion with a similar lacking best non-conference opponent.
Maybe the committee disagrees, but I would prefer a one-loss Clemson to a one-loss Michigan. The ACC wouldn’t be the reason, but playing two non-conference opponents with the kind of quality wins that South Carolina and Notre Dame have would make the difference for me. It would be two good non-conference opponents to zero.
As I discussed in the previous blog, one reason I give Clemson more credit so far than others do is if you play a series of let’s call them high-medium teams (not ranked but above average) such as Louisville and Wake Forest, you’re still exposing yourself to risk of a loss to a higher degree with each game. Just ask Tennessee and Ole Miss. They didn’t show signs of being vulnerable to teams like that over the previous month or two, but they got to the point of playing too many teams that were high-medium or better and apparently didn’t get up enough for every one.
On the other hand, based on the above, you can imagine what the committee has probably said. Even if these other teams are in equal conferences (the ACC is probably the worst of the bunch), Clemson has only played one team in the top five of its conference, and they lost to the only team they’ve played so far who would be in the top five of their conference.
This conversation would probably only come up in seeding, but I wanted to address it anyway. Some are assuming that Georgia will definitely be ahead of LSU even if they lose to the Tigers, but I’m not so sure. If Georgia had to play Alabama and Ole Miss, it’s certainly possible they’d be entering the championship with a loss. Right now, I think the non-conference game against Oregon resolves any doubt; but it becomes a more open question if both Oregon and Florida St. have three losses at the end of the season. This wouldn’t matter in my ratings, but obviously how that SEC championship game plays out would influence this discussion.