Week 11 Top 25 2023

I was supposed to have time to do this on Wednesday but ended up having an unusually long (and rainy) work day instead, so I’m writing this on Thursday night (Friday morning for many of you).

Best-laid plans of mice and A&M boosters, I suppose.

Recap of LSU/Florida and Rivalry

It wasn’t because there was nothing to write about. I’m happy to make fun of Texas A&M and Florida, who lost a fifth straight to LSU. No one else has a losing streak to LSU that goes back to the national championship season (unless Vanderbilt’s streak of two counts). Although the LSU/Florida series dates back to 1937 and has been played annually since 1971, this was the first time LSU won five straight. Florida had once won nine straight from 1988 to 1996, but LSU now has its first lead in the series since then. If LSU doesn’t win another game this season, I’ll still feel some measure of success from that fact.

While it is unlikely that the LSU/Florida series will continue annually beyond that, the Tigers will at least make the return trip to Gainesville next year. I will endeavor to update the key Rivalry Series in the next week or so.

Not to be bitter about it, but the damage is done anyway. Having to play Florida every year, which included going to the Swamp every even year (apart from 2016), at least more often than not placed the Tigers at a disadvantage in the SEC West as far back as 1996. I guess it did in years before that too, but LSU was so bad it didn’t really matter. LSU had also played Auburn, which was strong for roughly the same time period, on the road in even years. The combined influence of those two games prevented LSU from winning the West in an even year until last season. The other SEC Championship appearances had been 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2011, and 2019. I acknowledge a certain crimson opponent played a role as well, but LSU’s unique struggles with them really only started in the 2012 calendar year.

LSU had to play Auburn every year by virtue of being in the West (that series will not be played next year), but had the Florida series not been made permanent, playing a different SEC East opponent could have made the difference in 1996 (when LSU would been one game better rather than losing a tie-breaker with Alabama) and 2006 (when LSU would have won a tie-breaker with Arkansas, but the additional loss made that irrelevant).

Given that the game was typically in early October though, it put the Tigers behind in 8-ball in several additional seasons. For example, LSU would have known going into the Arkansas game in 2000 that a win would have sent them to Atlanta (ironically, they went to Atlanta anyway to play in the Peach Bowl). Florida dealt LSU its first loss in 2008, and QB Jarrett Lee was never the same again. If it weren’t for his late-season penchant for throwing “pick sixes”, LSU could have easily won all but one other SEC game. LSU also nearly lost to Troy later in that season (seems like that would have taught the AD a lesson, but I digress). I doubt it affected the SEC championship games, but Florida also dealt LSU its first losses in 2012 and 2018, respectively.

Anyway, this was the largest win by either team since LSU’s 41-11 win in 2011. I’ll give the Gators credit for keeping it close for a while though. It didn’t help LSU that, as a result of a poorly-fielded kickoff, the Gators were able to score twice in just a couple of minutes to take a 28-24 lead in the third quarter. Jayden Daniels is a little bit more reliable for generating points than hoping for points off of turnovers and other miscues though, so the Tigers outscored the Gators 28-7 the rest of the way.

Jayden Daniels rushes against Florida on Saturday in Baton Rouge. He ran so well, I can’t even be certain which play this was; but I believe it was the 85-yard touchdown that was along the left side of the field. Daniels became the first person to pass for 200 yards and run for 200 yards in an SEC game at some point in the third quarter, but he finished with over 350 passing yards, which had never been done along with that many rushing yards. Johnny Manziel had thrown for 200 and rushed for 200 once; but that was in a bowl game, so we really hadn’t seen anything like this before.

The LSU defense and coordinator Matt House continue to get a lot of flak, but keeping Alabama within one possession at least until the fourth quarter (if not the entire rest of the game) and keeping Florida from getting a lead the whole game would have been something to be proud of. It’s just not helpful if you put them on the field with their backs close to the end zone seconds after the previous drive ends.

Response to College Football Playoff Top 25

I’ll start by saying there is nothing really new in terms of grievances with the College Football Playoff’s top 25. Oregon’s being ahead of Alabama and Texas continues to make no sense if you care about schedule strength.

At least Oregon St. is no longer the top 2-loss team, having been passed by Missouri. I don’t expect the Beavers will stay the one of the top 2-loss teams indefinitely anyway given games against Washington and Oregon coming up. If they win both, I’ll be happy for them to be the top 2-loss team though. More on them below.

I’d also like them to care more about the schedules of teams like Arizona and North Carolina, but those are far enough down that I’m not sure they really matter. The Arizona/Arizona St. game might actually be game though. It looked like it was going to be a pillow fight earlier in the year.

Comments about My Ratings

I had a bit of time to smooth out the rough edges this weekend and I still liked the results to add the original ratings back in as I described last week.  It also makes sense for some of the teams lower in the ratings because there is a number I have to adjust to factor in the bad teams so one bad loss doesn’t swallow multiple wins.  I can re-add the original ratings without that adjustment though, which I think is the fairer approach.

I was also able to do conference ratings and strength of schedule.  I will wait another week to see if the strength of schedule is giving teams enough credit in the ratings.  That might also be a further adjustment to the formula.  The same basic numbers and computations are being used regardless, it’s just been a continuing balancing act over years between giving credit for wins and giving credit for quality of competition.

It’s amazing that LSU, Ole Miss, and Penn St. have only seven combined losses and are still in the top 7 of the strength of schedule.  Duke is the only other team in the top 12 with a winning record.  Others in the top 20 with winning records are Utah, Kansas St., Kansas, Notre Dame, Missouri, and USC.  I did opt not to put Kansas in the top 25 below due to some of the losses they have though.

I think it’s fair that even though Michigan and Georgia still don’t have great schedules that this recognizes their schedules are now comparable enough that they should be ranked ahead of teams with losses like Texas and Alabama. I think barring any major upsets (based on rank, not necessarily based on betting line), most people would agree that the Top 4 should be Big Ten champion, SEC champion, undefeated Florida St., and undefeated Washington. If Alabama were to lose the SEC championship, the next beneficiary (for now) of a potential upset should be Texas if they win out. This recognizes that.

The conference ratings weren’t very surprising.  The SEC and Big Ten are neck and neck, but I think the SEC will pull away slightly next week given the out-of-conference games.  There are non-conference games the week after that, but I don’t like Kentucky’s, Florida’s, or South Carolina’s chances against ACC opponents (I’m not too worried about Georgia), so that might bring the SEC closer to the Big Ten again.

The SEC would still be ahead after adding the new programs to the Big Ten and the SEC.  That’s not really proof of too much about next season anyway given that Washington, Oklahoma, etc., can’t get as many good wins without hurting someone else in their respective future conferences next season.  It might mean that the Big Ten will be harder to beat in future seasons; but on the other hand, maybe Oregon and Washington fall back to the more mediocre status they occupied not too long ago.

Washington is very close to getting the top spot in the computer ratings.  I definitely think the Huskies will have that spot with a win, but they might lose it the week after (Washington St. wouldn’t count for nearly as much as Michigan would) and reclaim it the week after that (Oregon would count for a lot more than Iowa would). I expect to keep Ohio St. #1 here however for the next couple of weeks absent a loss or something really concerning. I’ll be very interested in how the ratings shape up after the conference championships though.

The initial line I saw had Washington barely favored over Oregon St., and then I saw one in which the Beavers were favored.  I definitely think that’s the big game this weekend. As I’ve mentioned, the Huskies have a couple of very narrow wins at home, so playing a team that’s been playing well on the road might be a challenge.  They might gain more support in the polls and the CFP with the win also, but those are much more stubborn than my ratings are.

Another Heisman candidate now, Michael Penix, Jr., throws under pressure against Oregon St. in Seattle last November. The Huskies won at the last second, 24-21, so it makes sense that the Beavers are given a very good chance to win at home this time despite the Huskies’ undefeated record.

I feel bad for Oregon St. that they lost a close game in Pullman when Wazzu was playing well, but the Cougars have gone down like the Hindenburg since then.

Three of the Honorable Mentions got promoted last week, so keep an eye on those. This week, all but one is in a Power Five conference, so that’s a noticeable change. That one other team is Coastal Carolina, the only one that hasn’t been ranked at some point this season.

My Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Washington	3
3	Florida St.	2
4	Michigan	6
5	Georgia	7
6	Texas	4
7	Alabama	5
8	Penn St.	9
9	Ole Miss	8
10	Oregon	11
11	James Madison	10
12	Missouri	16
13	Oklahoma	13
14	Iowa	19
15	Louisville	14
16	Liberty	17
17	Kansas St.	24
18	LSU	25
19	Oregon St.	21
20	Troy	20
21	Toledo	—
22	Tulane	—
23	Notre Dame	23
24	Utah	18
25	Memphis	—

Out of Top 25: (12) Kansas, (15) Oklahoma St., (22) Tennessee

Honorable mention: Kansas, Oklahoma St., Coastal Carolina, North Carolina, Southern CA

LSU/Alabama Clarifications and Preview

I’m not going to tell you who’s going to win the LSU-Alabama game or whether Alabama is likely to beat the spread.  There are plenty of people to do that.  However, there are some things some of those supposed experts have been getting wrong that I’d like to correct.

LSU did suffer injuries, but…

LSU is only down one member of the secondary who has played in the last month or so, Zy Alexander.  Some people are saying it’s four or five players.  It is that many cumulative going back to the offseason, but the Tigers struggled more when some of those players were playing than they are now.  So the idea that LSU is already terrible and now they’re likely getting a lot worse due to a slew of injuries that some people who are picking Alabama keep promulgating isn’t quite accurate. 

The Tigers will also miss lineman Mekhi Wingo, but that absence is the result of surgery for a nagging injury that had kept him from playing at full strength all season, and LSU’s front seven has been pretty decent (with some depth) since they settled on the 4-3 formation. Jordan Jefferson (see the next section if you’re confused) has been the standout this season, not Wingo.

Alabama is the healthier team, so if people just make that point and leave it at that, they’re not misleading you.

No College Starting QB Has Beaten Saban 2 in a Row Since…

There was report, I think circulated by ESPN, that last starting college quarterback to beat Nick Saban two years in a row was Drew Brees.  Brees even shared it on Twitter.  That would be a cute factoid, if it were true, especially given that Saban passed on a chance to bring Brees to Miami.  It was actually Rex Grossman, who easily beat the Tigers in both 2000 and 2001 as the Florida QB.  Brees might have been the last one who played the full game, but letting a backup play at some point doesn’t change who the starter was.  At any rate, it’s been over 20 years, so it would still be quite an accomplishment for Jayden Daniels.

Fun fact: This is not Rex Grossman.

Some LSU fans have mentioned Jordan Jefferson, the former LSU quarterback from 10-15 years ago (and older brother of Justin Jefferson), not the current defensive lineman. Jefferson didn’t start in 2011, so he doesn’t count; although he did help win the game… to the extent anyone on the offense deserves credit when only six points are scored in regulation.

Homefield Advantage?

There are a couple of interesting notes about the 2019 LSU team.  No SEC team has won in Tuscaloosa since then.  Obviously, I had to add the *SEC* qualifier because Texas won there this season.  I also wanted to mention that Alabama was favored by more points in that game than there are in this game.  I believe this is the fifteenth straight game in which Alabama has been favored against LSU, and this might be the smallest point spread over that time.  Also, the 2021 LSU team (our last trip there) was a relatively rare team who made it close in Tuscaloosa despite it being the first LSU team with a losing final record since 1999. 

I haven’t done anything with updating my rivalry blogs this year, but it has been a weird pattern over the years that LSU has typically done better at Alabama than they do against the Tide at home.  Neither record is great of course.  However, before 2019, LSU had lost three in a row in Tuscaloosa by at least 14 points in each game.  So it seemed like we were even losing that silver lining.

Joe Burrow takes off for a 19-yard run in Tuscaloosa on November 9, 2019. In the last two LSU wins over Alabama, Tiger QBs accounted for 734 combined yards. The 2019 win was LSU’s first over the Tide in 8 years. The 2022 win was LSU’s first home win over the Tide in 12 years.

A third consecutive strong showing in Tuscaloosa (and a fourth strong showing in five years overall against Alabama) would be a good sign even if it’s a loss.  I’m not looking for moral victories in advance (of course I was very happy about the actual victories in 2019 and 2022), but obviously you have a better chance to win games against a given team or in a given location if you have a habit of at least keeping such games close.  I think there is a psychological impact when you have a series of disappointing results in a given situation.  Even though there weren’t too many players in common, I think that 2019 team had something to do with the confidence with which LSU played last year (as well as 2021), and obviously I hope that continues. It’s also good to look for signs of an improving program (at least relative to Alabama, in this case) in the bigger picture.

Will the team who scored 10 points in 59 minutes against South Florida outscore the team who averages 44 points per game?

The fact that my answer is “quite possibly” means I’m not blowing off all criticisms of LSU’s defense or ignoring the quality of Alabama’s. It’s a little tongue in cheek because no one is actually asking this question, but similar silly questions are being asked to suggest LSU will lose. (By the way, the 44-point average does not count the Grambling game.)

Like I said earlier, I’m not going to tell you where to put your money if you’re into gambling, but I do want to go over some things to look for whether it’s out of financial interest or not. 

To pick up where I left off about the injuries, there are certainly some question marks on the LSU defense, don’t get me wrong; but the same is true of the Alabama offense especially.  I don’t understand how it’s OK to pretend all their ills are solved because their last half of football went well, but LSU’s defense is still what it was against Ole Miss (or worse), and LSU’s offense is still what it was against Florida St.  LSU was not playing a terrific Army team, but you can’t do better than a shutout as far as points are concerned.  They looked significantly better than they did against Grambling, and Army would probably blow out Grambling.

Anyway, in response to the Alabama predicters and supporters picking on the Florida St. and Ole Miss games, we could just as easily pretend Alabama’s offense is just as bad as it was against South Florida (who gave up more points to Florida A&M than they did to the Tide) and Alabama’s defense is just as bad as it was against Texas.  Another thing I realized was before the final drive that ended in a touchdown with 33 seconds left against the Bulls, Alabama had had more possessions (11) than points (10).

I don’t think any Alabama fan would have taken you seriously if you told him that Daniels would account for 277 yards in last year’s game after he only accounted for 139 against Auburn the month before, so I don’t think this fan habit of trying to cherry-pick stats from an earlier game to tell you what to expect in the next game is very reliable.  But to the extent it is, it can go both ways.

It’s true that LSU can’t rely on the defense to show up strong, especially not in the secondary.  LSU doesn’t have to have a terrific secondary for there to be some stops though.  Even though the Ole Miss game was historically bad defensively, LSU still got stops when there were long-yardage situations on second and third down.  Alabama has had a problem throughout the season in putting themselves in bad down-and-distance situations through sacks and penalties.

The Tide has succeeded on some deep shots, but I don’t think they’ve faced an offense (other than possibly Texas) that really penalized them for low-scoring halves like I think LSU can.  Bama does keep teams to relatively low scores, but LSU has been scoring in the upper 40s even in conference games.  Alabama has typically been allowing scores in the low 20s. 

I think LSU will likely score somewhere in the 30s, but that could mean LSU wins 38-24 or scores 31 and loses.  I’m not sure what Alabama’s upper limit is; but they did get up to 40 against Mississippi St., and I’m sure they weren’t desperate to score on every drive after they led 31-10 at the half.

If Alabama finds that kind of offense again and doesn’t let up, LSU could also conceivably lose by a couple of touchdowns.  I think LSU winning by a couple of touchdowns is slightly more likely, especially if they’re able to get up into the 40s and it doesn’t make strategic sense for Alabama to try to get points from their kicker.  LSU has a capable but less consistent kicker; so, if it’s a closer game, that could be an advantage for the Tide.

The Steele Curtain

Some Alabama fans have brought this up, and it’s legitimate enough to address it.  By far the best game plan against Joe Burrow was implemented by Kevin Steele when he was the coach of Auburn in 2019 and held LSU to 23 points, but there isn’t some magic that takes place just because the uniforms are the same.  Obviously, he can’t make his defenses consistently play that well, because this year’s Tennessee, Arkansas, and Texas A&M aren’t anywhere near the 2019 LSU team and all of them also scored in the low 20s against a Kevin Steele defense.  I think that’s a bit more relevant. 

Kevin Steele and Ed Orgeron at their introductory press conference before the 2015 season. 2015 was one of only two seasons since 2011 that Steele coached somewhere other than Auburn or Alabama.

Steele might be a genius in stopping what Coach O called “da Joe Brady offense,” but that’s not what Mike Denbrock runs.  This is much more of a ball-control offense than LSU was in 2019.  Even Saban has compared it to the triple option (2/3 of which involve a back taking the ball downfield).  Burrow could run when needed (see the picture above), but he didn’t run with the same ease as Daniels.  Clyde Edwards-Hellaire came through in the Auburn game I mentioned, but he had only averaged 78 yards per game before that even though LSU was often trying to run out the clock on large leads.  Logan Diggs has averaged 107 yards per game over the last four SEC games, so I don’t think it’s as tempting to see what LSU can do with runs and short passes.

Daniels doesn’t check down as much to the tight end Mason Taylor as last year (for obvious reasons), but he’s still there if Steele focuses on stopping long passes as he did in 2019.  TE Thad Moss had 7 receptions in 2019.  If Daniels throws it to Taylor that many times, he may go for 100 yards.  Also, Steele obviously doesn’t control the offense.  The boom-and-bust offense that Alabama runs now isn’t likely to minimize the LSU possessions as the Bo Nix Auburn offense did in 2019.

That’s all I have to say really about things to look for as far as X’s and O’s, but I did come across some other items worth addressing.

Common Opponent and Why Alabama is Favored

I’m sorry if what I’ve covered is not too illuminating about who’s going to win, but we could have made similar competing arguments last year (although the teams were more balanced), and the game went to overtime.  The reason the line is closer this time is that there wasn’t a recent common opponent that made Alabama look a lot better.  Last year, Alabama had lost to Tennessee by 3 on the road, and LSU had lost to Tennessee by 27 at home.  Both games were within the previous month.

There is a common opponent this season that Bama fans have brought up, and that’s Ole Miss.  One difference is both teams played the Rebels in September rather than October.  Alabama only beat them by 14, and LSU-Ole Miss came down to the final play (similarly to how Alabama-Tennessee ended last season, even though Ole Miss won by a couple more points).  It is a good point total if you add the two margins of victory together, but we aren’t talking about a close game versus a blowout.  Also, rather than homefield advantage magnifying the difference between Alabama and LSU vis-à-vis the common opponent, it’s a mitigating factor this year.  If they were focused on the common opponent, the gamblers this year would have Alabama favored by a lot more than 3 points, which is essentially just the home advantage (although maybe that’s only part of it in this case).  They’re basically telling us that what they’ve seen from these two teams is close to dead even in the aggregate. 

Another reason one might lean toward Alabama is they are the more proven team even if there weren’t one fewer loss.  They’ve played three teams that were in the top 20 at the time they played them and have won the last two (2-1 overall).  In between those two, they won a game in College Station (where LSU has lost three games in a row, by the way). LSU may finish with a better schedule, but the Tigers have already played their FCS opponent and have already played Auburn, which for now is not as good as Texas A&M. LSU is 0-2 against top 20 teams, although Missouri was #21 (AP; #22 Coaches) and has since improved to #12 (CFP).  These things do not tell us who will win matchups on the field, but there is something to be said for being tested.

SEC West Implications

I don’t want to imply that LSU is going to win this game not to mention win out, so I’ll start with saying if you’re an Alabama fan, you can book your tickets (or at least your hotel room) to Atlanta the second the game ends if they win. Alabama likely wouldn’t technically clinch though because theoretically Ole Miss can represent the West if the Rebels win out AND Alabama loses to Kentucky and Auburn.

But I did want to mention one other factual thing a lot of people are getting wrong.  LSU is still the favorite to win the West if they do win out even if Ole Miss beats Georgia.  Yes, Ole Miss would win a head-to-head tiebreaker, but head-to-head means it’s just those two teams.  I suspect Alabama will beat Kentucky and Auburn, so that would make it a three-way tie with all teams 1-1 against the other two.

I guess it would be fitting for the last SEC West title race to come down to games like… Missouri vs. Tennessee on November 11 in Columbia. The Volunteers won by 6 touchdowns in Knoxville last season; but their point total dropped by over 30 against Alabama from last season, so I wouldn’t look for a similar score this year against Mizzou.

I have a standalone blog ready if Ole Miss does beat Georgia (and no other relevant upsets take place) that will tell you everything you need to know, but for now just know a three-way tie (meaning LSU beats Alabama and no one else beats LSU, Alabama, or Ole Miss the rest of the season) will come down to whose SEC East opponents do best.  Ole Miss has already played Vanderbilt and will play Georgia; LSU has already played Missouri and will play Florida; and Alabama has already played Tennessee and will play Kentucky.  LSU’s opponents have the best combined record at the moment.

LSU/Mizzou & Week 6 Top 25 2023

Intro

I actually have two blogs of material this week since I didn’t have time to post the other one last week.  I finally did get around to entering all the FBS results into the spreadsheet for my computer formula.

I thought posting the rankings blog was more important to get more back on schedule.  I haven’t even promoted them like I usually do because most people aren’t really interested on Thursday and Friday.

LSU QB Jayden Daniels keeps the play alive in the first quarter in Columbia on Saturday. Daniels was responsible for 389 total yards and four touchdowns (with no turnovers). It should have been more scores, but we don’t need to get into why he didn’t get credit for more.

LSU/Missouri Recap and Reaction

I wanted to include a couple of comments about LSU’s win over Missouri even though my next blog will in part be about the game before.

It was nice to get Mizzou back for the first game after Covid, when LSU’s rising star quarterback Myles Brennan played a great game in Columbia but got hurt and was never seen in meaningful action again.  I’m torn between saying LSU deserved to win that game and that LSU was lucky they competed in any games in 2020 and 2021.

Anyway, that was also the only season I know of when the LSU defense was nearly as bad as it is this year.  I have barely even watched LSU play defense the last two games, by the way.  Auburn’s offense isn’t as good as that of Mizzou or Ole Miss, so I’m hoping it might be more tolerable next game. 

The second half of the Mizzou game was not bad though, to be fair.  Six of the home Tigers’ 8 possessions did not result in points.  Ideally LSU would like to force the other team to punt more, but missed field goals and interceptions result in the same number of points that “three and outs” do.

Preface of Rankings

For the rankings this week, it’s still mostly subjective; but there is an objective element now.  I gave each team a score that was a combination of my subjective and objective ratings, and then I allowed myself to move teams a maximum of five spots from the order the improvised formula put them in.  For most teams, it was only one or two spots though. The objective ratings aren’t as thorough as they will be (for instance, no credit was given for quality of FCS opponents), but they’re complete enough to give a strong idea of who the most accomplished teams are.

Oklahoma was the best team in my formula, but it’s partly because they beat 6 FBS opponents (none of which were very good before last week).  So I felt the need to move them up considerably.   I haven’t been impressed with them in “the eye test” since Caleb Williams transferred to USC, which is partly why they weren’t higher going into the week; but I couldn’t move Georgia any higher given the rules I made above.  Florida St. has had two lucky wins, so I didn’t want to put them in the top 3 either.

Oklahoma’s Nic Anderson catches the winning touchdown pass from Dillon Gabriel in Dallas on Saturday. Gabriel did not complete as many passes or throw for as many yards as Texas’s Quinn Ewers, but he threw no interceptions and Ewers threw two as Oklahoma got revenge for a 49-0 loss to the Longhorns last season.

Speaking of USC, I’m not impressed with them much at all once I sat down and looked at who they’ve beaten and the records of those opponents.  They just went to triple overtime against Arizona, who lost to Mississippi St., possibly the worst team in the SEC West.  The Trojans are undefeated though, so I thought I would put them ahead of the best two-loss team, Notre Dame.  I would not be surprised to see USC lose to the Irish or any of the ranked Pac-12 teams though.

There were a couple of other large movements in the rankings. Louisville is another undefeated team who had a big, somewhat unexpected win over the weekend. North Carolina also made a big jump, but I am still concerned by the narrow home win over Appalachian St. One of the things I do when I move to more objective rankings is to de-emphasize margin of victory though. I added a couple of Big Ten teams with understandable losses, as well as adding LSU back.

Even though I understand it can look bad to move teams too dramatically, I still think it was the right choice to take LSU out when they fell to 2-2 against FBS opponents (which included a 3-point home win over Arkansas) going into the Missouri game. I also still think I was right to put Mizzou ahead of the four teams who fell out (as I’ll explain, formerly #21 Kansas didn’t fall far), but at any rate it makes sense for LSU to be a bit higher than those other Tigers now.

I can defend most of the choices I made last week, but the idea is to be as accurate as possible now, not to put last week on a pedestal and see who deserves to move up or down a set number of spots based on a preconceived idea of how good last week’s respective opponents were. I continue to think it’s the right thing to start evaluating teams differently around this time of year. Preseason, knee-jerk reactions to one or two early results, and margin of victory should count for very little going forward.

I’ve hardly had any teams from the G5 (those outside of the Power 5 conferences) ranked this season, but four of the best five unranked teams by both the computer and the overall formula are G5.  They are as follows: James Madison, Kansas, Liberty, Memphis, and Wyoming.

I was going to leave it at that, but since I mentioned Liberty, it will be interesting to see how former Liberty and Ole Miss head coach and current Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze does in his first trip to Tiger Stadium since 2016. He was winless in three contests there as the head coach of Ole Miss, most notably in 2014 when his undefeated #3 Rebels were upset 10-7 in one of those Les Miles defensive and ball-control classics. When I get a chance, I’ll try to get caught up on the rivalry blogs.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Michigan	3
3	Oklahoma	19
4	Georgia	2
5	Florida St.	7
6	Penn St.	6
7	Texas	4
8	Washington	12
9	Alabama	10
10	Oregon	8
11	N Carolina	23
12	Louisville	—
13	Ole Miss	11
14	Southern CA	5
15	Notre Dame	9
16	Washington St.	14
17	Utah	17
18	LSU	—
19	Iowa	—
20	Kentucky	13
21	Duke	16
22	UCLA	18
23	Oregon St.	15
24	Wisconsin	—
25	Missouri	20

Out of Top 25: (21) Kansas, (22) Kansas St., (24) Tennessee, (25) U. Miami

Week 2 Top 25 and SEC Thoughts

I’ve been accused of being an SEC homer in the past, but I’m not going to sugarcoat it.  There were two more disappointing results to add to the LSU loss in Week 1.  Neither was as bad as Utah, the defending and eventual Pac-12 champions, losing to a Florida team that wouldn’t even finish with a winning record last season. By SEC standards though, losing to a similarly-placed team in another conference as Alabama and Texas A&M did is still bad news. 

Texas A&M and Alabama

It was a doubly good weekend for Longhorns fans. I guess it will be OK in hindsight if Texas A&M finishes last in the SEC West and U. Miami is in the top half of the ACC, but chances are the Aggies will beat at least one competitive team this year (as they beat divisional champions LSU last season).  I think there is a limit to how low Alabama can fall, but if they’re third and Texas goes undefeated in the Big XII, maybe that loss will also be understandable in hindsight by the end of the year. Alabama could still win the national championship, but I’m just giving one scenario.

In Tuscaloosa, Ala., Saturday, Texas QB Quinn Ewers threw for 349 yards and 3 touchdowns, including the one above to Xavier Worthy in the second quarter.

Early Big Games Are Not Always Determinative

Like I discussed last week, sometimes a team just gets off to a rocky start and fixes the problems before getting exposed by a conference opponent.  This happened to Ohio St. in 2014 before winning the first College Football Playoff.  An SEC example happened in 2006, when Arkansas was embarrassed against USC, 50-14, before winning the SEC West.  2006 was when the 7-year run of SEC national titles began, so it wasn’t a sign of a weak league then.  USC went on to win the Rose Bowl, but not before losing as many Pac-10 games (2) as the Trojans had lost in the previous four seasons combined.

Putting A&M aside since I don’t think a lot of people picked them first or second in the SEC West, the fact that it happened to both LSU and Alabama is somewhat concerning.  As far as I can recall, there wasn’t a second such game in 2006 or the few years after by one of the top SEC teams. 

I also want to say I don’t agree with some people saying that this means Texas will be a top contender for SEC titles right away.  One game isn’t an 8- or 9-game SEC slate; and even though Texas should be an easy place to recruit, they probably will have less experience in key positions next season.  Also, without the divisional format, it isn’t likely they can make a championship game almost by default like Missouri did a couple of times.  Texas A&M, which joined at the same time as Mizzou, still has never made an SEC championship game despite typically having much better teams.

Ole Miss and LSU

Neither of the next two SEC West teams I’ll mention have gotten much of the flak for last week, but I’ll also be fair and say I wasn’t impressed by them either.

Also, Ole Miss should have appeared vastly superior to a Tulane team that is missing a lot of its talent from last season (when they still lost to Southern Mississippi and Central Florida despite the positive season overall) and was also playing without its starting quarterback.  The starting quarterback might not have made a difference of 17 points (the final margin of victory), but it easily could have made a 7-point difference.  That game would have been a lot different if Ole Miss had made a field goal to go up three points instead of ten with just under two minutes left.  If Tulane didn’t have the urgency of being down two possessions on the ensuing drive, the turnover that resulted in the final Ole Miss touchdown would have been less likely.

LSU was expected to beat Grambling by a big score and did so, but I still think it was a bad sign that it was 14-10 LSU at the end of the first quarter.  If Grambling hadn’t deferred after winning the toss, they would have had two different leads.  It’s not like the field goal was from 50 yards either.  It was a 23-yard field goal, so Grambling was close to scoring before stagnating in the red zone.  It shows you don’t even have to be an FBS talent to catch passes against LSU, you just have to be tall.  I’m sure there are some tall receivers in the SEC.  A few players got out of the backfield too easily too.

Nonetheless, if LSU manages to go to Starkville and get a win (more on that below), the other teams in the division could be beatable.  I think the Tigers also have a fairly favorable cross-divisional schedule with Florida (at home) and Missouri (on the road).

Mississippi St. and Auburn

I mentioned last week that the Pac-12 had not lost any games against other conferences in Week 1.  The one bit of good news from the SEC West is Mississippi St. and Auburn became the first two teams from other conferences to defeat Pac-12 opponents.  Cal and Arizona only had a combined five conference wins last season, but it’s not like Auburn was terrific either (2 conference wins by a combined 6 points).  Yes, I know LSU struggled on the Plains last year anyway; but LSU has struggled there in the past against weak Auburn teams (even in 2012).

It will also be interesting to see how hosting Arizona compares to hosting LSU from Mississippi St.’s perspective.

Mississippi St. QB Will Rogers, who has thrown the most completions in SEC history, runs the ball against Arizona in Starkville, Miss. He only threw 13 of those 1192 completions on Saturday despite the game going into overtime.

LSU/Mississippi St. Series

Even if LSU wins, it’s going to be bittersweet, to me at least.  2024 will be the first year that Mississippi St. will participate in an SEC season and not play LSU.  The first SEC season was in 1933, and the last regular season Mississippi St. played without playing LSU was 1925.  The only Tigers’ schedule that didn’t have the Bulldogs on it over that time was 1943, when Mississippi St. didn’t field a team. 

I don’t understand why they couldn’t keep the series going next season while they figure out what the permanent rotation will be, but of course no one asked me.  Next season, LSU will play Vanderbilt for the 33^rd time, South Carolina for the 23^rd time, and Oklahoma for only the fourth time.  I think somehow one of those (or even Florida or Arkansas) could have found someone else to play while LSU played Mississippi St. again. 

I will have more to say about this whenever I get around to updating the rivalry blog, but I want people to appreciate that much while the game is taking played.

LSU/Mississippi St. Preview

About the game itself, it might be a good thing for LSU that Mississippi St. has moved away from the air raid since I’ve made no secret of my lack of admiration for the LSU secondary so far.  By the way, I had to laugh during the week when LSU commentators who acted like the Tigers could somewhat easily handle the Seminoles and were good bets for the top 10 (if not top 5) acted like they agreed when Brian Kelly told the media that he knew it would be an area of concern.  I understand why he didn’t tell us, but why didn’t the LSU media tell us if they knew?  LSU has a well-paid PR department.  They don’t need volunteers masquerading as journalists. 

I hope I’m wrong, but I think I’d take the Bulldogs and the points at home anyway.  Based on what State did last week, I do give LSU the edge but not by much.  Just because Miss. St. didn’t throw it much last week doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t if they feel like that’s what LSU is giving them.  The LSU defensive backs can’t get taller in the next couple of days, but I’m hoping they do a better job at breaking up passes on throwing downs and that there is more of a rush to assist the pass defense than there was against Florida St.

if Mississippi St. is not able to generate much offense without the help of the turnovers which they relied on to win the last game, then it might be relatively easy to outscore them. In that case, this might result in LSU being conservative to try to preserve the lead. Something like 23-14 or 27-19 would still fail to beat the spread. If LSU has to try to go score for score, then it’s also unlikely the Tigers win by double digits.

General Blog and Rankings Comments

Before I post the Top 25, I did want to mention that I’m not completely confident about my posting schedule for the next couple of weeks since I have some traveling planned.  It will be done by the time I usually post my first computer ratings in early October though.  It’s also more difficult to post blogs of my usual quality while traveling.  Enjoy the pretty rankings chart below since you might not see it again for a little while.

This is already long, so I won’t explain any particular ranking decisions.  I’m still giving some credence to preseason rankings at this point; but when I transition into a purely computer-based system, all preseason bias will be removed.  This does not take place in major polls or committee rankings.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Georgia	2
3	Michigan	3
4	Florida St.	5
5	Texas	9
6	Southern CA	6
7	Penn St.	7
8	Notre Dame	11
9	Alabama	4
10	Utah	8
11	Oregon	13
12	LSU	15
13	Ole Miss	12
14	Tennessee	10
15	Duke	14
16	UCLA	19
17	Clemson	16
18	Kansas St.	17
19	Washington	18
20	Colorado	25
21	Oregon St.	21
22	Cincinnati	—
23	Central Fla.	—
24	N Carolina	20
25	Mississippi St.	22

Out of Top 25: (23) Pittsburgh, (24) Fresno St.

The College Football Playoff Picture with Two Games Left

I wanted to start by saying happy Thanksgiving. I thought it was best to get this out today since there is only one game, which is probably not of crucial importance.

Because they have been so dominant until now, Georgia is the only one-loss team I can see finishing ahead of either LSU with two wins in the final games or USC with two wins in the final games.  The loser of Ohio St.-Michigan will not have anything on their resume similar to Georgia’s wins over Oregon and Tennessee.  It could be an interesting argument if TCU loses or if both LSU and USC lose though. I don’t automatically discount non-champions (even with the same number of losses), but I believe they should be looked at more skeptically.

Strength of Schedule

I touched on this last week, but something that many basic fans either don’t grasp or don’t bother to look into is how much schedules vary.  Most conferences are not like the Big XII where it’s a pure round robin; but even in the Big XII, there are still three non-conference games.

I wanted to go over who is on the schedule of the following teams that have a realistic chance at the playoff.  I’ll go over the top four teams of the respective conferences and the biggest non-conference game.  I’ll mention TCU last because I think most people’s sense of their schedule is accurate.

LSU: Georgia (plays December 3), Alabama (win), Tennessee (loss), Ole Miss (win), Florida St. (loss).

Georgia: LSU (plays December 3), Alabama (did not play), Tennessee (win), Ole Miss (did not play), Oregon (win).

USC: Oregon (not played; possible conference championship opponent {NPPCCO}), Washington (NPPCCO), Utah (loss), UCLA (win), Notre Dame (play on Saturday).

Ohio St.: Michigan (plays Saturday), Penn St. (win), Iowa (win, may play again), Purdue (NPPCCO), Notre Dame (win).

Michigan: Ohio St. (plays Saturday), Penn St. (win), Iowa (win, may play again), Purdue (NPPCCO), Connecticut (win).

Clemson: North Carolina (plays December 3), Florida St. (win), Pitt (did not play), Duke (did not play), Notre Dame (loss).

TCU has beaten the following: Kansas St., Texas, Oklahoma St., Baylor, and Texas Tech.  Out of conference, the best win was over 6-5 SMU.  As I discussed in the last blog, the Horned Frogs will play either Kansas St. or Texas for a second time in the championship game. 

Former walk-on Stetson Bennett IV (pictured above throwing on the run against Florida in Jacksonville last month) helped lead Georgia to its first national championship since 1980 and has the Bulldogs well-positioned for another.

Early Resume Comparison

I’m not making predictions about the remaining games, but I’ll discuss the teams as if I’m comparing them at the end of the season.  For instance, if I say LSU will have beaten Georgia, what I’m talking about is the only scenario in which LSU is a contender. I don’t expect LSU to come particularly close to beating Georgia.

The committee does not consider the wins a team would have at the end of the year, or Clemson and USC would be higher.  Those are the only two above who have two really decent opponents left.  I think it’s harder to have to win successive games like that.  Even moreso with USC because it would be three strong wins in a row: UCLA, Notre Dame, and then the #2 Pac-12 team.

If Iowa beats Nebraska, which is highly likely, LSU and TCU will be the only teams to have played every other top-five team of their respective conference.  I do think the quality of LSU’s top opponents would make up for the extra loss if TCU were to lose a game.

I know it doesn’t seem like either Big Ten team would be missing a big resume bullet point by not playing Purdue, but Purdue has one fewer loss than Illinois, which led Michigan with about one second left on the clock last week.  Also, if you’re not really missing any competition by not playing one of the top five teams of your 14-team conference, that doesn’t say much about your conference schedule.

As I suggested, I’ll be impressed by USC if the Trojans manage to win the next two weeks, and I would not be bitter about it if they were to edge out LSU.  I tip my hat to the committee for having LSU #5 right now.  I think it shows they understand the lists above, and if the last two games barely put USC ahead of LSU, so be it. 

That’s not to say I don’t think LSU would have an argument.  One key point is USC’s loss thus far.  Utah lost to a mediocre SEC team and beat USC.  That suggests to me that USC would have more than one conference loss if they played at least four teams who finished higher in the SEC than Florida did.

This comparison only takes place if LSU wins, so we would either have an SEC non-champion having blown out USC’s best win at the beginning of the year or we would have USC avoiding one of the more dangerous teams in its conference.

Teams Who May Lose Late and Be Considered; Why Clemson Might Deserve a Spot if They Do

Putting LSU aside, Ohio St. would be a very interesting contender if they lose to Michigan.  I think they would compensate for having two fewer games against the Big Ten West as a result of the non-conference game against Notre Dame.  This argument becomes even stronger if USC is knocked out of the running by Notre Dame.

Ohio St. WR Emeka Egbuka stretches for a touchdown against Notre Dame in September in Columbus. Although the Irish have had a couple of ugly losses since then, this still may be a key win for the Buckeyes.

One-loss Michigan would be a poor contender against anyone but a one-loss TCU though.  I know Connecticut beat Liberty and became bowl-eligible, but Connecticut is not a good team.  TCU is the only team in this discussion with a similar lacking best non-conference opponent.

Maybe the committee disagrees, but I would prefer a one-loss Clemson to a one-loss Michigan.  The ACC wouldn’t be the reason, but playing two non-conference opponents with the kind of quality wins that South Carolina and Notre Dame have would make the difference for me. It would be two good non-conference opponents to zero.

As I discussed in the previous blog, one reason I give Clemson more credit so far than others do is if you play a series of let’s call them high-medium teams (not ranked but above average) such as Louisville and Wake Forest, you’re still exposing yourself to risk of a loss to a higher degree with each game.  Just ask Tennessee and Ole Miss.  They didn’t show signs of being vulnerable to teams like that over the previous month or two, but they got to the point of playing too many teams that were high-medium or better and apparently didn’t get up enough for every one. 

On the other hand, based on the above, you can imagine what the committee has probably said.  Even if these other teams are in equal conferences (the ACC is probably the worst of the bunch), Clemson has only played one team in the top five of its conference, and they lost to the only team they’ve played so far who would be in the top five of their conference.  

This conversation would probably only come up in seeding, but I wanted to address it anyway.  Some are assuming that Georgia will definitely be ahead of LSU even if they lose to the Tigers, but I’m not so sure.  If Georgia had to play Alabama and Ole Miss, it’s certainly possible they’d be entering the championship with a loss.  Right now, I think the non-conference game against Oregon resolves any doubt; but it becomes a more open question if both Oregon and Florida St. have three losses at the end of the season.  This wouldn’t matter in my ratings, but obviously how that SEC championship game plays out would influence this discussion.

Week 12 Top 25 and CFP Reaction

First, I want to note that I’ve updated the LSU-Arkansas series blog. I didn’t mention that if you didn’t watch the game, the final score is misleading. The LSU defense was extremely dominant, and the 13-3 late edge seemed almost insurmountable, although of course one more late play could have made the difference in the game. This was the third consecutive game in the series that was decided by three points and the third consecutive win by the road team, both firsts in series history.

Assuming I have time, I’ll write more about potential playoff scenarios later, but I’ll just make general comments about the ratings. I did wait to publish this until after the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings.

The Race for #5

Since someone will lose between Ohio St. and Michigan, both currently ranked highly enough to make the four-team playoff, there is a lot of interest in who #5 is or will be.

Although in my rankings (and in the CFP’s), LSU stayed ahead of USC, I don’t necessarily fault the rankings that allowed the Trojans to go ahead. Obviously, UCLA is significantly better than UAB and the combination of UCLA and Notre Dame is significantly better than the combination of UAB and Texas A&M; but I just hope that LSU and USC can switch places just as easily if LSU beats a much better team on December 3. Even in my ratings, I expect the Trojans will go ahead with a win (over Notre Dame) after the games this weekend.

The CFP committee doesn’t let us know how close USC is to overtaking LSU, so we will just have to guess there, but I do think if they didn’t move USC ahead now, it would indicate that either (1) they aren’t going to move the Trojans ahead next week either or (2) if they do, it would be a very close call and can be just as easily switched back by LSU beating a better team in the conference championship game.  Despite what Bo Nix says, I think Oregon (assuming they make the title game… more about the “civil war” opponent below) is still a good bit behind Georgia.  If Oregon loses, that makes it worse for USC regardless of whether the Ducks still make the championship game (I think they would need Washington to lose in that scenario.)

I do have Clemson ahead of LSU right now, but I also think a win over Georgia would overcome the deficit.  It may be closer than I would have thought previously given South Carolina’s win over Tennessee.  The Gamecocks have a reasonable chance of winning the in-state rivalry though.  That win by an SEC team would also give LSU a higher rating in comparison to other competitors for #4. 

I think I value many of the same things the committee does, but I think they have a dim view of Clemson for a few reasons. For one, they just don’t seem that capable of scoring the points to keep up with a good offense; and it’s just very rare that your defense can be dominant enough against a good team (and they were anything but against Notre Dame) to compensate. In my ratings, you can win every game 7-3 and you get the same number of points as if you win 77-3 or 77-73. (I do take off a little if you win close games by three or fewer at home though.). For another, although they have played a long list of above-average teams, they’ve only played two teams in the top 20, and they’re only 1-1 against those teams. Also, those two teams each have three losses apiece. When I add in the “weighted” ratings, that’s meant to give extra credit for playing some of the best teams; but the overall ratings do not have the extreme focus on best opponents that the committee has.

Shifting ratings of prior opponents has some impact upon teams moving up and down in my ratings, but I think they’re still pretty stable being that there were only two teams that fell out of the top 25 (and they both obviously deserved to).

Although I think every reasonable ratings system has Georgia #1, there are some shortcomings being that the Bulldogs didn’t play any of the top three teams of the SEC West. If they’d played Alabama or Ole Miss, it would help LSU more to win that game. At least before the Texas A&M game, Auburn (whom Georgia plays every year) looked like the worst team in the SEC West. Mississippi St. isn’t the best either, although maybe those Bulldogs will win the Egg Bowl. I think a two-loss LSU would be a deserving #4 regardless, but I’m just talking about the numbers right now.

Other Developments in the Rankings

Tennessee’s falling four spots was reasonable.  I think they should remain ahead of Alabama.  I don’t think head-to-head is a good reason alone (given that it means the worse loss is worse for Tennessee), but the fact that Tennessee has played Georgia and Alabama hasn’t is a good reason.  Both Tennessee and Alabama have played LSU in the same stadium, and we know how those games went.

It’s also helping LSU that Florida St. has been increasing its standing.  Although I generally like Florida St. better, I’m used to having more mixed feelings in their games against Florida because I usually want to make LSU look better.  But in this year, it’s the opposite since (although LSU has played both) I think it’s better if a team LSU lost to increases its rating instead of the fourth or fifth team the Tigers will have beaten doing so.

You might have expected some of the teams to fall more due to losses, but a loss to a good team this late in the year doesn’t hurt too much given that each successive game is a lower percentage of the total.  Even a loss to a team that is destined for a less-than-impressive bowl game isn’t catastrophic.  I have a couple of SEC results in mind.  If you’re Central Florida, you can’t lose to Navy though.

Oregon St.’s rise may seem unusual, but all of their best prior opponents have been improving. Fresno St. lost its first four games against FBS opponents but has won all six since then. Boise St. started 1-2 against FBS opponents and is now 7-3 in such games. Washington St. has won three games in a row to improve to 7-4 overall. You’re probably already familiar with the gradual improvements of USC, Utah, and Washington. Although USC was high in the polls all year, they didn’t justify it much until later in the season.

Without commenting on the Playoff, USC appears to be the team to beat west of the DFW Metroplex. After struggling to score at times in the first half, the Trojans scored touchdowns, including the one above by WR Kyle Ford on the first play of the fourth quarter, on their first four possessions in the second half to take a 10-point lead in the Rose Bowl on Saturday. After UCLA threw a late interception, USC held on for a 48-45 win.

Finally, Texas has improved in recent weeks as the Oklahoma win has gotten stronger and the Alabama and TCU losses have been hurting the Longhorns less.  Some may wonder how they could possibly be ahead of Kansas St., but you can’t just look at records and conference membership.

Even within the same conference, a better strength of schedule can compensate for a loss. Obviously, Alabama is a much better team than Tulane, and even Texas’s second-best out-of-conference opponent (UTSA) is comparable to Tulane (and they actually rate better as an opponent although not overall). It also helps that Texas did not play an FCS team. Kansas St. not only played an FCS team, but that team is only 3-7 within the FCS (3-8 overall). I think TCU playing Texas again would make for a better game, but I guess we’ll see how it goes.

The Horned Frogs finish with Iowa St. and most likely Kansas St., two of the old Big XII North opponents (only three of which remain in the Big XII after the departures of Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri). The Wildcats play Kansas, the only other former Big XII North team still in the conference. If Kansas St. wins, they’re in the championship game. If not, they’d need Texas to lose to Baylor. Even though I already think Texas is the better team, I suspect the committee would like TCU better if they beat two-loss Kansas St. rather than three-loss Texas.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Georgia	1
2	Ohio St.	2
3	Texas Christian	3
4	Michigan	4
5	Clemson	6
6	LSU	8
7	USC	9
8	Tennessee	4
9	Alabama	7
10	Penn St.	11
11	Oregon	14
12	Utah	12
13	Florida St.	18
14	Troy	20
15	Notre Dame	15
16	Oregon St.	—
17	N Carolina	10
18	Texas	—
19	Ole Miss	16
20	Tulane	23
21	Kansas St.	21
22	TX-San Antonio	23
23	UCLA	13
24	Washington	22
25	Coastal Carolina	19
—	Central Florida	17
—	Oklahoma St.	25

Week 11 Top 25

This is kind of a rushed post. I always add the new rankings Saturday night or Sunday morning even if it takes until it’s sunrise for some of you; but for those who subscribe by email, it will not notify you when that is posted. Feel free to check whenever you get up on Sunday. I don’t always manage to post the conference ratings until Sunday afternoon though. By that time, I’ve also usually checked to see if any teams are out of place to make any needed corrections.

Until now, the top 25 in the blog was different from the computer top 25; but now that I’ve added the “weighted” component of the ratings, that will no longer be the case.

I apologize for this being so late, but normally I don’t even have to respond to anything work-related after 4:30 Pacific, but I was given a bunch of work right before 4:30 since one of my colleagues is on vacation. I didn’t want to have to scramble around at the last minute on Sunday, and of course I don’t want to be at all distracted on Saturday.

I also didn’t have time to update the Arkansas rivalry blog, but I should be able to update both that and the Texas A&M series this weekend. Obviously the A&M one will need to be updated again in about 8 days, so it’s possible I might wait until then.

LSU players gather around the LSU/Arkansas rivalry trophy in Fayetteville on Saturday. I can’t tell who the players in the back are, but the ones in front are (l to r) WR Jaray Jenkins, P Jay Bramblett, and S Sage Ryan.

I’ll only comment briefly about the top 25 given time constraints of it being late and there being games in less than 14 hours.

Commentary about Rankings Changes

Tennessee has passed up Michigan, but this is rather academic being that the Ohio St./Michigan winner is expected to pass up the Vols and remain ahead until the bowl season. The loser is expected to be behind the Vols and stay there until the bowl season.

With the win over Ole Miss, Alabama has passed up the Tigers, but this also likely doesn’t mean much as to the final pre-bowl ratings. If LSU loses a third game and Alabama doesn’t (unlikely against FCS Austin Peay or Auburn), Alabama will be ahead. If LSU beats UAB, Texas A&M, and Georgia, LSU will be ahead regardless of what the Tide does. I’m not making promises aout the top 4, but LSU may also pass up multiple other teams, especially those who don’t play a championship game, with wins in the remaining contests.

I doubt it has a bearing on the national championship picture, but the Pac-12 is very interesting. I was correct in suggesting people pay attention to the Washington-Oregon game last week. Putting the Huskies’ new rating aside, the Pac-12 now has four teams between #9 and #13. That’s interesting enough, but all four of those teams play another one of those teams this weekend. There will be two one-loss teams and possibly three two-loss teams in the conference heading into the final weekend. The championship now involves the best two teams, so every two-loss team after this week may still have a realistic chance if one of the winners were to lose next week.

I don’t have a whole lot to say about Texas-San Antonio (who mostly has moved up by virtue of not losing in not-very-good conference, or Oklahoma St., who has been in and out of the top 25 due to inconsistent performance.

But there is another interesting new team, which is Central Florida. You may have heard of them. The Knights will potentially unseat Tulane from a New Years Six spot by virtue of beating the Green Wave; however, there is also some potential drama in the closing weeks regarding crowning a champion of the American conference. The Knights, who have beaten both teams already, will most likely play the winner of Cincinnati (which made the Playoff last year) and Tulane (set for November 26) in championship week.

I completely disagree with championship games that simply match the two best teams, particularly when they involve a rematch (which, if the winner has a better record, is completely unfair to whomever won the first time), but it does help make for some excitement.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Georgia	1
2	Ohio St.	2
3	Texas Christian	3
4	Tennessee	5
5	Michigan	4
6	Clemson	6
7	Alabama	11
8	LSU	8
9	USC	9
10	N Carolina	15
11	Penn St.	17
12	Utah	13
13	UCLA	7
14	Oregon	10
15	Notre Dame	18
16	Ole Miss	12
17	Central Florida	—
18	Florida St.	18
19	Coastal Carolina	21
20	Troy	24
21	Kansas St.	20
22	Washington	—
23	Tulane	16
24	TX San Antonio	—
25	Oklahoma St.	—
—	N Carolina St.	14
—	Texas	19
—	Syracuse	22
—	Liberty	25

Week 10 Top 25 & Week 11 Preview

I got more views this week than I’ve gotten since the pandemic, so welcome to anyone who might be new here. Happy Veterans Day as well.

I thought about making this week the week where I removed the subjective input into the top 25 below (see here for the completely objective unweighted ratings as of right now), but the weighted rankings aren’t quite where I want them yet.  This coming week may clear up a few things.  I think the big game to watch will be in the SEC again, Alabama against Ole Miss.  I’m not one to be sympathetic to Alabama; but win or lose it was going to be hard for them to physically and mentally recover from Saturday and play another road game that could help decide the SEC West (somehow LSU is in the driver’s seat now though).

Oregon-Washington is an interesting upset opportunity.  The Huskies just beat a ranked Oregon St. team for their third straight win, and UO-UW is a rivalry game for both teams.  They’re often the two best Pacific Northwest teams, especially now that Boise St. has reverted to mediocrity, and both teams are a little more high-profile than their respective in-state counterparts.

Washington RB Sean McGrew is tripped up for a loss last year in Seattle. The Huskies were held to an average of 2.3 yards per carry and did not score a touchdown until the fourth quarter as Oregon won 26-16, the Ducks’ third straight win in the series. The previous two games in the series (2018 and 2019) were decided by a total of only seven points though.

It will also be interesting to see if Clemson bounces back against Louisville.  The Cardinals have won four in a row after a 2-3 start.

There are two other matchups of ranked teams according to the polls.  TCU travels down the I-35 to Austin, and Central Florida visits New Orleans to play Tulane.  I want to make sure not to over-rate TCU or Tulane for having good records but not playing great competition.  Either they’ll earn their ranking a little bit better or they’ll prove the skeptics right.

Also, I thought there was enough overhaul going on this week as is with the two big SEC games and the instability of the ACC and the Big XII.  It’s hard to balance record versus big games.  I want to make sure teams like Alabama aren’t penalized too much for losses to very competitive teams; but if I lessen the effect of “good” losses, Tennessee could be as high as #2.  I’m not sure that’s appropriate either. 

With Arkansas’s loss to Liberty, the Big XII is starting to creep up on the SEC.  We will know a lot more the last two weeks of the season though.  Almost half of the SEC plays out of conference in two weeks, and then there are the annual rivalry games the following week.  I at least expect Georgia to beat Georgia Tech, but anything can happen in the others: Kentucky-Louisville, Florida-Florida St., and South Carolina-Clemson.

Speaking of the Big XII and Rivalry Week, I like that KU and K-State are now playing one another at the end of the season unlike in prior years; and they’re both pretty good now.  TCU will likely finish in first place in the Big XII regular season being that the Horned Frogs are two games ahead, but K-State is part of a 3-way tie for second with Baylor and Texas (who play one another during Rivalry Week).  Kansas is tied for fourth with Oklahoma St.  Every team has three games left. There are no late bye weeks or late out-of-conference games like there are in the SEC.

Among the conferences (these are listed after the team ratings), the Pac-12 and Big Ten were almost tied for a distant third, but they’re both rather top-heavy.  The ACC is more split along divisional lines, and obviously the top ACC team took a big hit out of conference.  At least the ACC is still one of the top five conferences.  There is a big separation among the non-Power-5 conferences though.  The American, the Sun Belt, and the independents are leaning toward respectability, while the CUSA, Mountain West, and MAC lag way behind.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Georgia	5
2	Ohio St.	2
3	Texas Christian	4
4	Michigan	6
5	Tennessee	3
6	Clemson	1
7	UCLA	10
8	LSU	13
9	USC	11
10	Oregon	9
11	Alabama	7
12	Ole Miss	8
13	Utah	14
14	N Carolina St.	23
15	N Carolina	20
16	Tulane	15
17	Penn St.	17
18	Notre Dame	—
19	Texas	—
20	Kansas St.	16
21	Coastal Carolina	—
22	Syracuse	18
23	Florida St.	—
24	Troy	—
25	Liberty	24
—	Illinois	12
—	Oklahoma St.	19
—	Oregon St.	21
—	Wake Forest	22
—	Maryland	25

Week 9 Top 25 and Final Thoughts about Saturday

I’ll have some things to say about LSU at the end, but a one loss team playing a two-loss team obviously takes a back seat to the match-up of unbeatens (Tennessee/Georgia) in Athens on Saturday. The two games will likely decide the participants in the SEC Championship Game (although Ole Miss will also control its own destiny if Alabama beats LSU), the winner of which has made every College Football Playoff thus far.

I didn’t want to put either one #1 at this point, but I do think it’s likely that whoever the winner is will pass up Clemson, who barely hung onto #1.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Clemson	1
2	Ohio St.	5
3	Tennessee	2
4	Texas Christian	3
5	Georgia	4
6	Michigan	7
7	Alabama	6
8	Ole Miss	9
9	Oregon	8
10	UCLA	12
11	USC	10
12	Illinois	17
13	LSU	13
14	Utah	21
15	Tulane	18
16	Kansas St.	—
17	Penn St.	15
18	Syracuse	11
19	Oklahoma St.	14
20	N Carolina	23
21	Oregon St.	22
22	Wake Forest	16
23	N Carolina St.	20
24	Liberty	19
25	Maryland	25
—	Troy	24

Top 25 Comments

The Tigers did slip in the computer rankings, which is normal after a bye week, but I’m still including a subjective component.  Clemson also lost some ground due to losses by Wake Forest and Syracuse.

I have been calculating percentages of the best rating (after my input) every week without publishing them, but I really wanted to emphasize it this week.  The closest team to Clemson last week was Tennessee, who had 88.99% of Clemson’s score.  This week, there are five teams who are closer to Clemson than that:
Ohio St. 99.83%
Tennessee 99.59%
TCU 98.17%
Georgia 97.96%
Michigan 90.42%

After some difficulty in the first quarter, the Georgia defense easily contained QB Hendon Hooker (6.6 ypa passing and 0.4 ypa rushing) and the Tennessee offense in a 41-17 win last November in Knoxville. Tennessee was a much different team though, having entered the contest at 5-4. Just as last year, the Bulldogs enter the Tennessee game undefeated.

With the top teams this closely packed, it’s much easier for a team to jump from #3 or #5 to #1.

The other teams aren’t playing the most impressive opponents either.  Clemson plays Notre Dame, Ohio St. plays Northwestern, TCU plays Texas Tech, and Michigan plays Rutgers.  The only one of those with a winning record is Notre Dame, who is unranked at 5-3.  The Irish are the only one of the four who is even close to the top 25.  Northwestern is one of the 10 worst teams in my ratings.  Clemson is only as highly rated as they are with my subjective input, so it should be particularly easy for Tennessee to become #1 with a win.  There is a little bit more uncertainty with Georgia; but I think when I add my subjective input, it would be enough to for them to move up to #1.

Ohio St.’s win over Penn St. gave them more points than Tennessee’s or Georgia’s (or TCU’s) wins last week, but obviously that will be balanced out on Saturday.  Michigan didn’t play a good team, but it’s better than not playing any team, which is what Alabama did.

Most of the shuffle at the bottom of the rankings can be understood by the recent wins and losses.  The only particularly remarkable change was Kansas St., who enters at #16; but I was very skeptical about them given the loss to Tulane.  Also, the win over Oklahoma St. was by far their best win.   

The only team to fall out was Troy, who did not play last week.  It can be difficult for teams from the Sun Belt and similar conferences to get enough points to stay in the top 25 week to week.

CFP Reaction

I’m glad I wrote about Alabama earlier in the week and waited on the rankings so I could mention the CFP rankings.

First of all, I really don’t like how the media overhypes these.  It’s not any kind of serious drama or dispute if Tennessee is #1 and Georgia is #4 or the other way around.  Whoever wins Saturday will be ahead.  The loser Saturday will still have a decent chance if they go undefeated.  I do think it’s right to value one win over Alabama and another at LSU more highly than what Georgia has done thus far.  It’s great that they blew out Oregon two months ago, but that shouldn’t count for more than two big conference games in the last month.  Also, if you give Georgia credit for margin of victory over Oregon, you should take some credit away for Missouri and Florida.

LSU is 10^th, and I don’t think they’re that good; but there is an expected loss coming.  I think if LSU wins they should definitely be in the top 10.  If LSU finishes with three losses or fewer, they’ll be in a decent bowl.  That would be true if they were #8 right now or #12, which I think would be more appropriate.

Alabama is #6, and I don’t see what the problem is there.  We all know if Alabama has one loss and is the SEC champion (If they finish with only one loss, they’re guaranteed to be the champion; and it would take multiple bizarre results for them to win it with two losses) they will most be in playoff.  I don’t see what the gripe would be with Clemson, Michigan, or Ohio St.  Michigan of course plays Ohio St., and Clemson at least would pass up the loser of that game and at least the loser of the SEC championship.  I’ll be surprised if TCU finishes the year undefeated anyway; but even if they do, we can expect a lot of upheaval around them.  So again, I don’t think anyone is “snubbed” or has a reasonable grievance yet.

LSU/Alabama Final Thoughts

I wasn’t going to elaborate further after the previous blog about the Alabama/LSU game, but now that I’m discussing the teams, I did want to draw attention to a new entry of a vlog I mentioned before, “College Football Nerds”.  I don’t always appreciate what they have to say, but I at least like what the second guy said.  Alabama winning by a touchdown seems like the most likely single outcome.

I am not expecting a great defensive struggle though. Some people thought that about Mississippi St., Ole Miss, and Florida.  The only game that really was a defensive struggle was Auburn, but I don’t think that’s likely to repeat itself.  If the LSU offensive is ineffective, I think eventually the defense will be overwhelmed like it was against Tennessee.  I mentioned before that I don’t think Bryce Young is Jaxson Dart or Robbie Ashford or Will Rogers where the defense is going to crack the code and Alabama will suddenly be unable to score for 40 minutes or whatever.

LSU QB Jayden Daniels suffered some knee problems, which seemed to limit his confidence and his ability to keep plays alive, and left the October 1 game at Auburn early. Daniels has not seemed similarly affected in subsequent games.

Too much was made of the Auburn game.  LSU did give up a fair number of yards in that game, but they were just on a few plays early on.  Auburn’s inability to have sustained drives was still an issue.  Also, LSU’s lack of passing yards in that game probably isn’t applicable to other games either.  They were in extreme ball control mode that they will not be in against Alabama unless LSU has a lead well into the fourth quarter.  It was also that way because Jayden Daniels was playing hurt and then started having trouble walking, so Brian Kelly took him out.  The coaches don’t trust Garrett Nussmeier, the backup, to throw downfield.  As long as Auburn couldn’t score, there was no reason to allow him to.  Alabama won’t go 40 minutes without scoring like Auburn did.

Then the hosts of College Football Nerds tried to bootstrap the Auburn game into the Tennessee game to make it seem like it wasn’t a unique circumstance.  One of them said something like, “Sometimes you get the Auburn/Tennessee LSU, and sometimes you get the Ole Miss/Florida LSU.”  Just because they were both low scoring outputs for LSU doesn’t mean they were similar games.  LSU had 300 passing yards against Tennessee and 80 against Auburn.  LSU got well into Tennessee territory multiple times, but they were never in a situation where settling for field goals or trying to focus on ball control made any sense.

It’s also not really surprising that the LSU offense seems more comfortable at home.  There are multiple transfers, including Daniels; and there are two freshmen on the offensive line not including the primary receiving tight end.  Nonverbal communication doesn’t take place as well with players who are less familiar with one another, and verbal communication is a challenge in a hostile environment.  This happened on both sides of the ball in the Auburn game especially.  That was LSU’s first true road game.

If this game were in Tuscaloosa, even though LSU has historically done better there than in Baton Rouge, Alabama should be favored by 14 or more.  Alabama also can be a different team on the road than they are at home.  The game could play out exactly like the Tennessee game did, so I’m not saying to bet the farm on LSU beating the spread; but I think if that game were played 10 times, that would have been one of the largest margins of victory.  Every key moment went against LSU.  Alabama seems like a similar team to Tennessee.  It was just luck of the draw at the end between the field goal kickers, and the game was in Knoxville.  I don’t see any way at all the game Saturday looks like the Auburn game though.

Happy Birthday/Halloween to the Coaches & The Scary Story of the LSU/Alabama Series

Intro

Being that it’s a bye week, I don’t have anything to say about the prior LSU game other than what I said to accompany the previous top 25 blog.  I won’t do a detailed LSU/Alabama preview like I did with Ole Miss, but I have a few general thoughts.  I don’t usually post blogs this late, but I thought with it being Halloween and there being an NFL game with a bunch of former LSU players in it, people would be up.

This is the best preview I’ve heard so far. You can skip the first few minutes and the last minute or so.

I don’t really believe in astrology, but I guess it’s sort of appropriate subject matter today.  I wanted to note for any who find it interesting that since the last time either of these teams played a game, both Brian Kelly and Nick Saban have had birthdays (Saban’s is today), so they’re both Scorpios like I am (although I was almost a Sagittarius, and Kelly was almost a Libra… maybe that’s what stopped me from being a multimillionaire with a job in sports). 

Their respective ages (Saban Is 9 years and 360 days older, for what it’s worth) are seen by many as a detriment, especially in this era of 30-something offensive coaches.  Even if I were impartial though, I would look forward to this game because I think you have two coaches with some patience and wisdom (they’re not going to panic if they’re down a couple of scores or try to do anything weird to put the game away if they’re up) but also coaches with high expectations and attention to detail who will let players know promptly if they mess up.  Some people might think it’s mean or regressive, but I relate better to coaches who are willing to vent a bit than I do to the easygoing “player’s coaches” or the ones who just robotically move on to the next play.  I like to see a more old-school combination of professionalism and emotional investment.

Early Thoughts About Saturday

I see a range of outcomes, sort of like I did with Tennessee.  LSU winning easily is unlikely for myriad reasons, but anything from a close game to an Alabama blowout seems realistic.  There might be a few good plays on defense that help, but for the most-part I think the LSU defense is going to be beaten more often than not, along the lines of Alabama/Tennessee this year, LSU/Alabama in 2019, and the Alabama/Clemson national championship games.  I don’t think LSU allows 52 unless Alabama has a very high number of possessions and/or very good field position (due to turnovers, three-and-outs, bad special teams, etc.), but high 30s may be unavoidable. 

After being behind 28-10 midway through the second quarter in Knoxville on October 15, Bryce Young led the Alabama offense to 39 points in the next 2 quarters. I think LSU will need to keep them below that number for the game.

The Tigers have had sustained drives in recent weeks, sometimes multiple drives in a row; but I think it will be more difficult to do that against Alabama than it was against Ole Miss and Florida.  I also don’t think LSU can afford its characteristically slow starts because I don’t think the Alabama offense will just sort of hit a wall like Mississippi St.’s and Ole Miss’s did while the Tigers can take the lead and pull away over multiple possessions.  You can’t just diagnose their schemes and watch Bryce Young become ineffective like you could for some other quarterbacks. Alabama might have a slow 10 minutes of game play at one or two points, but the offense never really shuts down. 

I didn’t save the link or a time stamp or anything, but I did hear some commentary from the LSU media that annoyed me.  There is a show I normally like called Hunt and Hill, where former LSU running back Jeremy Hill talked about how when he played the Miles coaching staff would bring up Alabama a month ahead of time.  Hunt Palmer (the co-host if you couldn’t guess) defended the former coaching staff for adding hype to the Bama game.  He said it wasn’t possible to pretend it wasn’t a big game. 

That’s a false dilemma.  Whatever you tell them or whatever routine you have isn’t going to stop them from knowing that they have to raise their level of play more against Alabama than they did against New Mexico, for instance; but there is a danger of increased insecurity and trying too hard. 

You don’t have to lie in order to concentrate on one game at a time and not act like a given game is life and death.  You can’t tell a team that their whole lives rest on a single game for a month and then expect them to lose that game and be ready to play the next.  Even if they win, the next week can be difficult to get up for. 

I think Nick Saban exaggerates a little when he calls these greater narratives that the media hypes up “rat poison,” but the point is you do all you can to avoid it in order to minimize and counteract its impact to the extent possible.  A team is much more confident if you instill a sense of routine. 

Saban made a less dramatic point this week when he talked about an individual player, former LSU defensive back Eli Ricks: “I think it’s important that he just, y’know, goes into this game and bes (sic) himself and doesn’t think he has to do something fantastic.”  Obviously if he follows his assignments and also does something fantastic (that’s not unduly risky), Saban isn’t going to complain; but the point is the first priority is to concentrate on adhering to the system in place and the plays that are called.  If there is a little bit of extra energy you can channel into such tasks, great.  Regardless of this game potentially deciding the SEC West, the game means something personal to Ricks; but the same applies to players who might be tempted to take chances or depart from things they normally do well and consistently because it’s a big game.

Historical Notes and Observations

I don’t think this game is like some of the Alabama/LSU games 8-12 years ago where LSU loses its primary goals and lacks enthusiasm afterward, but I’m glad we have a coaching staff that isn’t likely to lose its focus and professionalism for a given opponent.  Other than his statement that it’s a privilege to play important games like this rather than a reason to be nervous or insecure, there wasn’t a single sound bite to focus on, but Kelly made similar general points during his press conference.

Going into the 2015 game in Tuscaloosa, LSU was undefeated and ranked #2 in the country with a Heisman leader at running back, but the star running back of the game turned out to be Derrick Henry (2) rather than Leonard Fournette. LSU lost the next two games as well and fell out of the top 25. Alabama would defeat Clemson for another national championship.

Transfer Portal

I think there are a couple of things about the current transfer portal era that help too. 

First is that I think Alabama has been weakened by the addition of players who weren’t originally recruited to go there and either continued bad habits from high school or picked up bad habits at their prior program.  This is probably part of the reason we saw a much sloppier Alabama team against Tennessee than we’re used to.  I also think LSU is much sloppier now than they were in the early years of Les Miles and than they will be in future years under Brian Kelly, but Alabama and LSU are much closer in that regard than they have been in prior years. 

Also, despite the ability of Bryce Young to improvise, Alabama is usually much more robust on third down than they are this year.  LSU was mediocre in some games this season, and they still do better on third downs than Alabama does.  I’m not minimizing the difficulty I believe LSU will have in taking advantage of mistakes or failures of the Alabama offense, not am I minimizing Saban’s ability to clean up any sloppiness in a bye week.

The other benefit I can see from the teams being a higher percentage of transfer players is that LSU doesn’t have this complex about playing Bama instilled into them, and Alabama doesn’t have a feeling of superiority that no matter what they’ll find a way to win.  I think it was overblown by some in the media, but I think we got a hint of this in the pregame against Tennessee.  Saban even said the team was more reserved than normal.  They weren’t chanting and didn’t seem as loose.  You’d think that if you dominated a series like that you’d be more confident even if you are on the road, but I just don’t think there is the same continuity with prior seasons as there was for those great LSU/Alabama games in the past. 

Obviously, in this case, the veteran players do remember LSU beating Alabama.  Even though LSU was a much more disadvantaged team last year, they hung in there pretty well on the road, only losing by 6.  The 2020 game against Alabama was horrendous for LSU, who didn’t have a good quarterback at the time and had a terrible defense; but if it didn’t affect things last year, I don’t think it affects things this year.

LSU QB Joe Burrow runs for a big gain in Tuscaloosa in November 2019, in LSU’s only win over the Tide since the 9-6 OT win in 2011. Burrow was less impressive in the game against the Browns tonight, but a number of Browns are also former Tigers.

Lessons from 2012 and 2014

I’ve covered some of this in my past blogs about the LSU-Alabama series, but I don’t think I approached it in response to this specific argument before.

I don’t think this affects the current players who were in elementary school at the time (if any are reading, stop now), but I wanted to recap a couple of games where I thought the players and coaches let Alabama get in their heads too much.  It would be nice to finally get one back at home.

(The last two LSU wins, in two fairly memorable years of 2011 and 2019, were in Tuscaloosa.  Since Bear Bryant’s hiring in 1958, LSU has only beaten Alabama five times in Baton Rouge. Nick Saban won two of the five for LSU {in three tries} and lost only one of the five for Alabama {against six wins in Tiger Stadium as the Alabama head coach).  The one loss by Saban was in 2010, the last year in which his team lost more than two games in a season.)

LSU did lose to Alabama in overtime in 2008, but I don’t think there was anything wrong with what the players or coaches did leading up to the game.  LSU QB Jarrett Lee had a big problem with interceptions (particularly pick-sixes) that year, but it was a general problem and not specific to Alabama.  Then, as I mentioned parenthetically, LSU did beat Alabama at home in 2010.  I think both teams played normal games and the team that was a little better ended up winning.  The better respective teams also won close games in 2007 and 2009 {some say LSU was the better team on the day in 2009, but Alabama did go undefeated and LSU did finish with four losses} in Tuscaloosa.

Looking back, it all changed in the 21-0 national championship game in January 2012, as many know; but many don’t realize that it didn’t have to be that way.

In the game the next November, the Tigers went down 14-3 after the first half.  The halftime score was as bad as it was because of a failed fake punt and a missed field goal.  I believe there was another trick play by LSU as well.  There is a lot of psychology that goes into trick plays and field-goal kicking, and obviously the decision to call the fake punt might have betrayed some insecurity by the coaching staff.  Even though 52 weeks before that LSU had beaten Alabama to take a 5-2 series lead since Miles took over, it showed the coaches were approaching the game as if Alabama was a vastly superior team that they were trying to get lucky and knock off.  After the missed field goal that would have cut the lead to one point, the Tide took over and scored a touchdown right before half.  If LSU had just taken what they were given, the Tigers might have had better field position, leading to a touchdown or at least a closer field goal attempt and possibly would have prevented Alabama from scoring a touchdown at the end of the half.

Despite having been outscored 35-3 by Alabama over six quarters and having another disappointing end to a half, LSU still didn’t act defeated.  The defense would force four punts and a fumble to start the second half.  After a three-and-out to start the half, the LSU offense drove deep in Alabama territory four consecutive times.  So basically the game was even in the first half apart from the bitter and, and LSU had dominated the second half.  LSU just didn’t have the points to show for it. 

I mentioned the missed field goal in the first half.  After the third offensive drive of the second half though, LSU was nonetheless ahead 17-14.  I don’t know if it was more on the players or the coaches (I suspect the coaches), but it seemed like everything after that backfired. 

After a 35-yard pass from Zach Mettenberger to Odell Beckham to set LSU up at the Alabama 33, it seemed like the coaches were content to play for a field goal.  Normally a 6-point lead rather than a 3-point lead isn’t the best strategy at the end of a game, but there was still about 10 minutes left, so it made some sense if they had stuck with it.  They called two runs and one short pass.  But since this set up a 4^th and 1, they then decided to gamble and go for it, even though it seemed like this move contradicted previous play calls and it should have been a red flag how much trouble the Tigers had running the ball on the two prior plays that set of downs.  Of course, LSU was stuffed, and Alabama took over on downs.    

The LSU defense responded with a three-and-out despite what had looked like a shift in momentum.  The LSU offense also seemed undeterred.  After some more runs and shorter passes (I don’t know why they didn’t take more chances against what seemed to be a tired secondary when they had Jarvis Landry and Beckham to throw to, but that was not uncommon for LSU offenses of that era), there was a 13-yard pass to Landry and a 22-yard pass to Beckham.  All they had to do was keep the pressure on.  But no, the coaches wanted to play for a field goal again.  This was much less defensible now since Mettenberger had become more confident and now there were only about 2 ½ minutes to play.  Unlike the last time, it was pretty cut-and-dried that Alabama would take over with a chance to take the lead in the final minute whether you made the field goal or not. 

People focus on the screen pass for a touchdown on the ensuing Alabama drive, but the LSU defense should have never been put in that position.  I also don’t think prevent was the best strategy in the plays leading up to that.  If they had scored with 2 minutes left, that would have been better than having them score with 51 seconds left.

Alabama’s T.J. Yeldon scores the winning points in Baton Rouge on November 3, 2012. This was the start of a 5-game winning streak for the Tide in Tiger Stadium, which LSU hopes to break on Saturday. (It was the second of 8 straight wins overall in the series.) Alabama went on to win the national championship over Brian Kelly’s Fighting Irish the following January.

So I don’t think that feeling of inevitability of a loss against Alabama was really established until the second game of the 2012 calendar year.

2014 is a much simpler narrative.  With the convincing loss in Tuscaloosa in 2013, it was now a three-game losing streak against Alabama.  Still, the Tigers were able to play a close game, more along the lines of 2011 than 2012; but it was still a good contest. 

After LSU had opened the second half with a field goal to tie the game at 10 (it was the opposite of 2012, when the Tigers punted on the first possession of the half and then played well offensively), there was nothing but punts by both teams until Alabama took over at their own 1 with 1:50 to play.  On second down from the 5, the Tide fumbled, giving LSU a huge gift.  Unlike in 2012, it seemingly didn’t matter whether they played for a field goal or not.  All they had to do was make sure the clock ran and kick a field goal on fourth down if needed.  Of course, it didn’t work out that way. 

After a first-down run, there was some pushing and shoving on the line.  The referee who made the call should have been fired on the spot since there was no reasonable way not to either call no foul or to call offsetting penalties, but you still don’t give them that opportunity.  Fall down and play dead.  If Alabama doesn’t stop the after-the-play shenanigans then, you’ll get a call from one of the refs.  If they do, you get the last laugh anyway.  Anyway, so the penalty stopped the clock.  It also took a realistic possibility of a touchdown off the table, and LSU was only able to run the clock down to 50 seconds before kicking the go-ahead field goal.  Then, instead of kicking it away, they tried to be cute and call a squib kick.  That kick went out of bounds, setting up Alabama at the 35 with no time taken off the clock.  Even if it had not gone out of bounds, a squib kick only takes a few seconds off; and I think it would have been better to give Alabama farther to go to get into field-goal range.

Like in 2012, the LSU defense had finally been battered just enough that they gave up points.  This time it was only 3 points, but it didn’t matter in the end since Alabama would win in overtime.

I don’t fault the coaches for not doing this, but I actually thought LSU should have broken the unofficial rules and gone on offense first.  This would have given the defense more of a break.  I wasn’t surprised that after the Tide drove 55 yards in 50 seconds they were able to drive for a touchdown with unlimited time.  I also wasn’t surprised that the LSU offense went four-and-out after being so ineffective since the first drive of the second half.  Maybe once regulation ended it a tie, it was all over anyway. 

January 2012 might have been when the mortal was turned into a vampire or the day the coffin was built, but I think that day was the first nail in the coffin of the Les Miles era.  Too bad we had to deal with some kind of undead Dracula/Frankenstein abomination for nearly two more years.