There was no way to encapsulate all of my thoughts about the events of the last 5 or 6 days into a single blog. For now, I’m going to focus on Kelly leaving Notre Dame and how I understand that happened. I’ve decided to start with a collection of often misrepresented or misunderstood facts and then use those facts to come to reasonable conclusions. Some of the facts may seem a little sarcastic, but it’s not my fault how many people fail to acknowledge such obvious facts in their reaction to this situation. I will discuss Kelly’s fit with LSU and other matters in other blogs.
Facts
Kelly had recently said that for him to leave there needed to be a fairy godmother with a check for a quarter billion dollars OR he had to talk to his wife.
- The only confirmed conversation between Woodward and Kelly was some point between the Notre Dame-Stanford game and the news broke on Monday.
- Kelly stayed on the West Coast after the game for recruiting for Notre Dame.
- Leaked text of contract was dated Sunday.
- There were widespread reports of a conversation in October, but Kelly said he didn’t engage in any and he can’t speak to what conversations his agent did and didn’t have.
- Kelly said after meeting with a recruit’s family he found out news broke.
- There is no known ability that Brian Kelly has to shut down social media or sports reporters nationwide.
- There have been no documented cases of time travel.
- I’m not sure where he was recruiting, but Stanford plays just south of San Francisco and he said he picked up his lawyer and they left from Orange County, which is South of Los Angeles.
- Kelly probably did not check his phone while with a recruit and also was not available by phone while in the air. This apparently led some to believe he was deliberately ignoring his assistants.
- Kelly and Lincoln Riley share the same agent.
- When LSU fans were largely under the impression the coach would be Riley, there was a report that a press conference was expected Wednesday or Thursday.
- After texting Monday night while preparing to return, Kelly met with Notre Dame players on Tuesday morning.
- On Tuesday evening, Notre Dame was ranked #6 in the College Football Playoff rankings.
- Kelly would not say whether a higher ranking would have affected his decision.
- The early signing period begins two weeks from the introductory press conference that was on Wednesday.
- Unlike many other successful teams this season, Notre Dame is idle until the bowl games.
- The Notre Dame AD did not ask assistant coaches to return since they were also busy recruiting.
- Brian Kelly was at Notre Dame for 12 years and is the all-time winningest coach in Irish history.
- It is very common for coaching changes to take place after regular-season games but before bowl games, and this has been the case going back decades.
- Games that take place after the regular season are called the post-season, not the mid-season, so leaving after those games is not accurately characterized as “leaving in the middle of the season”.
Inferences and Conclusions
Obviously, I don’t think his agent had meaningful conversations without apprising him or that his wife and family were first given the opportunity to think about it late Saturday night. I think he kept it vague enough that while he might not know of every conversation, he knew of the conversations that he had with the agent. My guess is the contract in its final form was drafted on Sunday but not finalized and agreed to until Monday.
Kelly didn’t want to miss any time recruiting in the event he were to stay at Notre Dame. Although it may hurt in the committee, it makes sense for Notre Dame to take advantage of not having a game coming up to get an edge on the many good teams who do have a game coming up this weekend. The Notre Dame AD said he didn’t ask any of his coaches to come back to South Bend, so it was busy for them too. Kelly denied and I heard no reports that Kelly had negotiated with any other teams.
I can understand the frustration of an assistant who just had a meeting with a recruit and sees or hears on his phone somehow that the head coach is leaving and then can’t get in touch with the head coach. Rather than taking a deep breath and thinking about logistical issues that can arise, apparently this assistant assumed the worst and got on the phone with a reporter to vent his frustrations. That does not mean Kelly screwed anyone over or left anyone high and dry. That’s just melodrama the media tried to sell.
Since that was about the worst possible ranking the Irish could have realistically had this week, it’s safe to say that waiting a couple of days wouldn’t have mattered even if the news hadn’t come out. I don’t think waiting until this coming Sunday was an option though. There may have been a revolution in Baton Rouge if people waited that long without further clarity as to the coaching situation there, and anyone who did know would not have been able to keep quiet that long.
Some people say that he should only have even entertained an offer if they were eliminated, but remember that LSU finished #2 in the BCS rankings in 2007 with two losses. The Tigers had jumped from #7 to #2 on championship weekend. With that in mind, when are you really out of contention for #4? #10 maybe? So everyone can leave but the coaches with the 9 most successful teams of the year after the regular season? In other words, you can have anyone except the coaches you probably want at that moment. After Brian Kelly’s last game in Cincinnati, the Bearcats were ranked #4. After Nick Saban’s last game at Michigan St., the Spartans were ranked #9. Maybe Saban never coaches in the SEC if such a rule were put in place. Certainly, Notre Dame wouldn’t have hired Brian Kelly the year they did in the first place. So don’t listen to these appeals to principle by Notre Dame fans. They’re fine with taking coaches from the best teams, in their case while an undefeated campaign was ongoing. They just never thought the shoe would be on the other foot.
Also, even if he were 40, you don’t get your best offers after an off year. Saban didn’t say, “We finally have a good bowl game this year, call me back another year if we go back to the Independence Bowl.” No one at Notre Dame had a problem bringing Kelly in after he had an undefeated season at Cincinnati and they were going to the Sugar Bowl. I know they’re not national championships, but Michigan St. and Cincinnati aren’t Notre Dame. Notre Dame had some down years in recent memory, but they didn’t go winless like Michigan St. did before Saban took over. Michigan St. was a big program at some point, but Cincinnati never was.
If Kelly had ended up staying at Notre Dame, he wouldn’t have wanted to endanger that by not using this opportunity to recruit. He certainly wouldn’t have wanted to let on that he was talking to other programs about their job. That could have left him with neither job. If LSU didn’t work out and Notre Dame had let him stay, that could have strained a lot of relationships and cost him a chance to win at least one playoff game. If Georgia beats Alabama comfortably, they’ll be a clear #1 and I wouldn’t give Notre Dame a chance; but if Alabama wins, I don’t know who #1 is. I guess it would be Michigan, but if Michigan St. beat them Notre Dame can. This might have been the only really good chance Notre Dame had, and time is not on your side at 60.
I also want to mention that it’s very unlikely that Kelly was offered more than a very brief speech. The Notre Dame administration would not have wanted him to have conversations with players that could have led to transfers to LSU, nor would they want more than a brief distraction even if that were not a risk.
I know it’s unfortunate that his departure could be used against Notre Dame, but NCAA/CFP college football made this mess, not Lincoln Riley and not Brian Kelly. They shouldn’t penalize any team for their coach making a rational decision based on the recruiting schedule.
Some say if they’re really harsh it will teach schools a lesson not to fire coaches. How would punishing Notre Dame teach LSU a lesson? What?
Others who pretend to take the players’ side say coaches shouldn’t be able to actually leave at this time. So coaches can make plans to leave, but they’re stuck. How hard are they going to recruit if they know they’re not getting the player? For the players the school gets despite the coach potentially blowing it, they’re going to be signing up to play for a coach who won’t even be the coach when they arrive on campus. Whatever university hires that coach will have a whole recruiting class who didn’t sign up to have that coach. I’m for the escape valve of the transfer portal (although I think there should be certain date ranges), but you could end up with almost as many players in it as out of it. I don’t think it would stop coaches from moving if all the other rules stay in place.
The only real solution in my opinion is (1) to not have an early signing day, (2) to make rules about tampering during the season (which for all teams would be through the national title game), and (3) allow six weeks between the allowable period to hire another team’s coach and the one and only national signing day. The teams who lose a coach and opt not hire a current head coach should still have times to find a replacement and get their new staffs organized in time for recruits to make really good decisions knowing the head coach, coordinator, and school. Only knowing the school isn’t good enough if you really care about players and you’re not just trying to get clicks from angry Notre Dame fans.
Another person who tried to add fuel to the fire was Lou Holtz, who tried to act like leaving Notre Dame was a huge insult to Notre Dame. If you don’t remember, Lou Holtz was the guy who left Notre Dame at the age of 59 after 11 seasons, a stark contrast from Kelly’s age of 60 and his departure after 12 seasons. Holtz then decided he wanted a new challenge of coaching in the SEC, which is also completely different because of reasons. He may claim it was OK because he didn’t go to another team immediately. To me, it’s more selfish to leave to have months for yourself than it is to immediately begin to devote your energies to another group of young men.
I could make fun of bad takes all day long, but I don’t want to be mean and I don’t want to promote their stupidity. I’m not worried about Holtz’s media presence going forward. Although I can’t stand the whole Notre Dame football scene, I have some sympathy for how players and fans may feel right now. I know when they go on about how mediocre or morally deficient Kelly is or how great first time head coach Marcus Freeman is (he may be, but no one really knows yet), they’re really overcompensating for a sudden feeling of insecurity.
Anyway, for a more rational analysis, I recommend this Fox Sports clip of Doug Gottleib. I also thought Rich Eisen, Marcellus Wiley, and Stephen A. Smith (of all people) had reactions worth hearing. I intentionally mention people without any loyalties toward LSU.
I’ve even seen some comments from LSU fans saying we were disappointed when Saban left. After Katrina, the Saints played the Dolphins in Tiger Stadium. The biggest cheer all day was when Nick Saban was announced.
LSU fans were sad that Christmas 2004 (which I think was the day Saban decided) and New Year’s 2005 (not to mention the way LSU lost the game that day), but it wasn’t this kind of anger. Saban probably would have had to stay 15 years to become the all-time winningest coach. I don’t think many would have begrudged him leaving after that. Even given that he left after 5 years, people only got angry and hateful toward Saban when he went to Alabama. If Kelly had gone to USC, then I would relate. I think the real reason we see the anger from Notre Dame fans is it kind of rubs their noses in it that they’re not this great college program that people will sacrifice tens of millions of dollars just for the privilege of being there.
I will talk about why the common agent might matter in other blogs.
Anyway, this says absolutely nothing negative about Kelly’s character. Unless it’s proven that he lied about a large number of things or a large number of conclusions about reported facts are not as they appear, I don’t see any legitimate reason for the negative attention. I think Notre Dame hopes with the favorable media they get, they can unfairly poison recruits against Kelly. LSU fans might not have cared about Kelly a week ago, but we shouldn’t let them.
Alabama, Boise St., Brigham Young, Clemson, College Football, Florida St., Fresno St., Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Ohio St., Oregon, Oregon St., Pac-12, SEC, South Carolina, Stanford, Syracuse, TCU, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, USC, Utah St., UTEP, UTSA
Rivalry Week Top 25 and CFP Reaction
In College Football, College Football Playoff, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on December 2, 2022 at 2:51 PMCFP Reaction
I ended up agreeing with the committee regarding the top 5. I’ll be really surprised if two of the current top 4 lose this weekend. I had said before last week that I thought Ohio St. would be one of the stronger non-champions were they to lose to Michigan.
Neither Tennessee nor Alabama, who each have two losses, had a non-conference game that was worth very much to compensate for the extra loss. The SEC is better, but it’s not so much better that you don’t need either a very good non-conference game or a ninth conference game.
I did think that LSU would have deserved consideration if they had finished with 2 losses, but the Tigers did get the ninth conference game when they qualified for the SEC Championship Game. This would have given LSU a second win over a team who finished with a winning record in conference.
Anyway, as to who #6 should be, I disagree with those who have Tennessee behind Alabama. Tennessee not only played the #1 team in the country by virtue of playing in the SEC East, but they also beat both of the top teams in the SEC West. Alabama didn’t beat anyone in the top 6 (there are 7 teams per division) of the SEC East, and they also didn’t beat the only team with a winning conference record (LSU) in the SEC West. The Tide did lose two games in the last second, but I think beating more good teams should count for more than how close the losses were. Alabama didn’t have to beat a team like either team who beat Tennessee. Texas was a better non-conference opponent than Pitt, but that doesn’t make up for Alabama playing Vanderbilt as the extra cross-divisional opponent while Tennessee drew LSU, not to mention Georgia and South Carolina.
Ratings and Other Thoughts
I don’t think this technicality matters as far as Playoff arguments but something else that annoys me is if you lose a tiebreaker for the conference championship game, you’re still considered a divisional co-champion. Even though LSU lost after clinching the spot in the championship game, Alabama can now claim they’ve won the SEC West 10 of 11 years (the exception being 2019). I prefer the NFL approach. If you lose the tiebreaker to the team that advances as the winner of the division, you’re not called a champion or co-champion. The previous time the Tide lost it outright was also to LSU, in 2011. Since divisions will cease to exist in about two years, I hope we can get at least one more outright win in the next two years.
Back to my rankings/ratings, you may have noticed the “weighted rank” doesn’t penalize as much for losses anymore. I’ve compensated for that by making it a smaller component of the overall total, but it still does take record into consideration to some extent. For instance, Vanderbilt had to play four of the five best teams by conference record in the SEC and is only #39 in the weighted rankings because the Commodores also have 7 losses. Alabama only played two of those teams and is #15 in the weighted rankings largely because there were no other losses.
So, although when I first introduced the weighted rankings they were meant to stand alone, in no universe did I think LSU was #1 last week or that Oregon St. is #2 this week (after Georgia); but those are the teams (other than Georgia) most deserving of bonus points if you will given a combination of a good record and quality opponents. I also think it’s right that Clemson lost an extra spot (from what they are in the original unweighted formula) because their weighted rank fell to #24. Clemson just barely edged out LSU and Oregon St.
One might come to the conclusion that I don’t give conferences other than the SEC enough of a chance with the weighted component, but there are five Pac-12 teams in the weighted top 10 and only three SEC teams. All things being equal, LSU and Tennessee having such tough conference slates would have caused them to finish lower than Alabama in the standings, but they both beat the Tide and ended up with the same number of conference losses as the Tide.
USC was the only one of those five Pac-12 teams to have a better weighted rank than unweighted rank. This was because the other four all finished with three overall losses. It also helped that the Trojans played Notre Dame. This compensated somewhat for USC not having played Washington and Oregon.
The other teams in the top 10 of the weighted rankings are Texas and Michigan. Michigan is doing well being that they only played two teams in the top 40 in my overall ratings, but of course being undefeated helps. Texas has the opposite situation: a number of top-40 opponents (4) but also a number of losses (4). Texas has also played 5 teams that finished between numbers 41 and 65 with only one opponent (ULM) below #85.
There are only a couple of the lower teams I thought needed a little bit of explanation beyond the results of last week.
It really hurt Florida St. that Clemson and LSU lost because those games were largely responsible for the Seminoles’ having an unweighted ranking of 14 and a weighted ranking of 16 last week. Notre Dame’s loss to USC also had some collateral effect upon the ACC as a whole as well given that the Irish beat both of the ACC title contestants and another team (Syracuse) who went .500 in conference and finished 7-5 going into the bowl game.
The only other team who seems somewhat out of place is Boise St. The win over Utah St. wasn’t the most impressive (although to be fair, the Aggies had won 5 of 6 going into the game), but the three teams who had beaten the Broncos all had “good” weeks. The Broncos’ worst loss, UTEP, is still not a good team; but the Miners improved their strength of schedule considerably by playing UTSA. You probably know what happened with Oregon St. (who beat Boise St. in Week 1) and why their stock improved. Also, BYU improved its strength of schedule with the win over Stanford (who played in a good conference and somehow beat Notre Dame…. Best wishes to departing head coach David Shaw, by the way. How he made it so long is beyond me).
I also noticed there were some games that weren’t included the last time or two I had updated the weighted rankings, so that may have played some role in why Florida St. fell after a loss and why Boise St. rose so far after a win over a now-6-loss opponent. I think that’s also the main reason UCLA fell so much last week and rose so much this week. Without correctly factoring in how good USC was, it made the loss to the Trojans look worse than it should have; and this is now corrected.
Regardless, I like the process I’ve followed this year because it’s been a lot more stable. I don’t like to say a given team is top 10 one week and not in the top 25 the next or that six or seven teams are in this week’s top 25 but weren’t in last week’s. We don’t really find out that much about a team in one game, especially not when it’s 1 of 12 games, so I don’t like to see much volatility later in the year even if there are some adjustments in the methodology.
Top 25
For the detailed ratings of all 131 teams, see here or follow the link in the heading for “Knights Ratings” at any time while browsing the site.