LSU Recap and Preview
I will not be giving any details about the Bulldogs, just about what is going on with LSU. I have updated my Rivalry Series blog in light of the upcoming game though.
LSU has either lost to or barely beat the Bulldogs in every game recently except for the two years in which Joe Burrow was the starting quarterback. If we win at all, I’ll be satisfied. If we win somewhat comfortably, I’ll be very encouraged. A loss won’t necessarily be devastating, but LSU should beat unranked SEC opponents at home (even though I think the Bulldogs should be ranked) even in a mediocre year. I know it’s easier said than done, but it should be an expectation.
One of the LSU shows found the biggest LSU naysayer they could. Even he picked LSU to win this game (and lose all the other SEC games). So while I do think the Bulldogs are underrated, I won’t be resting easy if LSU loses.
Usually I’d barely mention an FCS opponent, but I hope it gave the coaches more data to make better decisions in the future. What was done in the Southern game may also be a bit of a preview of what they’ll try to do against Mississippi St. I’m not going to preview the Bulldogs though.
LSU did shore up some concerns in the game against Southern even though obviously what works against Southern may not work in ANY future games. I think we can compare it to an NFL preseason game. Cuts to an NFL roster and to some extent decisions about plays and the depth chart are made based on performances against opposition players who themselves often aren’t going to be playing a whole lot in the NFL. Similarly, most Southern players could not get meaningful playing time at an SEC school (though a couple of former FCS players play for Florida St. and at least one plays for LSU). But I think going through the motions of a game against at least some competitive athletic talent can tell you a little bit.
It certainly gives you a basis for comparison of one player to another. It provides some data points by which to determine who plays where in future games. Coaches have a better idea of whom they can trust during the game. You can’t always know that from practices and scrimmages alone.
I don’t know if the new center Charles Turner will be better than Garrett Dellinger, the center in the Florida St. game; but I didn’t notice any problems with snaps, and the coaches seem to like how he communicated. Dellinger will still get a lot of playing time, but it will just be at guard instead. I don’t think anyone is pretending we know how well Turner will block an SEC defensive lineman at center because he did an adequate job against Southern, but they could see how he handled the game environment and worked with his teammates.
Jayden Daniels did leave the game early enough that I think we were able to get some information about where he is compared to the backup Nussmeier. Kelly said before the Florida St. game that they were 1-A and 1-B rather than 1 and 2 on the depth chart. I’m pretty sure that was a lie. We didn’t see Nussmeier at all in the Florida St. game even after the Tigers.
LSU only came up with 3 points in the first half; and although Nussmeier ended up throwing for more yards against Southern, he completed only 59% of his passes compared to Daniels’s 91%. Daniels did not commit a turnover in either game, and Nussmeier threw two interceptions. Daniels threw three touchdowns, and Nussmeier threw none. I don’t always think QBR is that great of a stat, but when one guy is near 100 and the other is under 20, I think that sums it up pretty well.
Again, I’m not banking on this counting for anything; but the starters did absolutely all they could. It has been 129 years since LSU first played intercollegiate football, and the Tigers had never scored 37 points in a quarter before. It only took 40 seconds of the second quarter to get to 44 points. As for the defense, Southern didn’t score until one of those Nussmeier interceptions was returned late in the third quarter. The LSU defense didn’t give up points until about 8 minutes remained in the game. That was probably the third or fourth team by then.
Some players who weren’t even starters in the first game played great. For instance, the game ball went to Micah Baskerville, who blocked a punt (which resulted in a safety) and returned an interception for a touchdown. I’m told he was only in about a dozen plays against Florida St. I don’t care if it was against easy competition, doing both of those things in the same season is hard to do, not to mention the same quarter. Freshman 5-star recruit Harold Perkins, Jr., whom LSU just barely kept from going to Texas A&M, had a good game too with 7 tackles.
Malik Nabors was relieved of punt-return duties after two turnovers in that role against Florida St., but it was nice to see him score a touchdown on one pass and go for 60 yards on another. Even if the latter were his only catch, Nabors would have led both teams in receiving yards. It’s good that the ball was spread around by both quarterbacks too. Hopefully it will keep the receivers more engaged and facilitate better communication and trust than we saw against Florida St.
Also, importantly, LSU had no major injuries and a couple of key players are actually available against Mississippi St. when they were not against Southern. This includes RB Jon Emery, Jr., and DE BJ Ojulari. DE Ali Gaye was suspended for a half for targeting, so he will be back as well.
Top 3
This first section ties into last week about certain SEC opponents looking more like winnable games than they did at first blush, but it’s also relevant as to why I’ve made a change at #1. I did think it was a little unfair that Alabama had to play Georgia in a rematch, but maybe it was the SEC championship game that was the aberration last year.
Alabama has rebounded from looking vulnerable and even losing in September before; but even if by some miracle LSU had been able to convince Saban to come back (there is a contingent of LSU fans who had been trying to orchestrate that for 15 years… I think they finally gave up now that Kelly has a 9-figure contract and Saban is 70 years old), we probably would have had to start thinking about the future by now anyway. Alabama may still win the national title, but the close win over Texas can be added to the following somewhat concerning close games last season (with final record of opponent and margin of victory):
7-6 Florida, 2 points
8-4 Texas A&M, LOST by 3 points
6-7 LSU, 6 points
9-4 Arkansas, 7 points
6-7 Auburn, 2 points
I haven’t changed my mind about Oregon (Georgia’s big win) being overrated in preseason. I would have liked to have seen more Georgia Bulldog offense against Samford, but the defense can’t do anything better than a shutout.
The reason I made the change is that Alabama won by a single point (and as I mentioned probably deserved to lose), and obviously the shine is taken off of Ohio St.’s win over Notre Dame given the Marshall game. A team can win by one possession in a fluke, but the Irish had to score in the final moments of the game just to make it close. So that’s really a similar type of game to what the Irish did in Columbus.
Remainder of Top 25
The rest of the top 10 remained intact. Kentucky had a decisive road win against Florida, so that’s why the Wildcats moved up so much. BYU’s win over Baylor was at home in overtime, and Baylor was one of the teams I was doubtful about (along with Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St.). The Cougars still got credit for beating a ranked team but not as much as what Kentucky did.
Apart from Baylor (whom I didn’t want to drop double digits for an understandable close loss), the rest of the top 20 is made up of teams who moved up by default.
Marshall is obvious. Oregon St. may not be, but I had Boise St. as one of the top unranked teams going into the season, and the Beavers beat the Broncos handily in Week 1. Last week, Oregon St. went on the road to Fresno St. (who won 10 games last year) and won, albeit in a close contest.
Tennessee wasn’t great against Pittsburgh, but it’s still a Power 5 road win, so I gave the Vols the Panthers’ former spot.
Houston was also on my waiting list in preseason, so I went ahead and gave Texas Tech a spot for beating the Cougars.
Iowa St. didn’t look a whole lot better than South Dakota St. had against Iowa (both games in Iowa City); but the Jackrabbits were one of the best FCS teams last year. As for the Cyclones, while they had needed the Hawkeyes to miss a field goal to escape with the win, I was still impressed by the defense. Iowa’s one score was on a very short field.
I give Texas A&M some credit for their defense against Appalachian St. (who put up 40 points in one quarter against North Carolina after all) as well and considered leaving the Aggies in the Top 25 instead. Although I do think the Aggies would likely beat the Cylones, 2-0 beats 1-1. Texas A&M will go ahead of the Cyclones with a win this weekend anyway, so I also don’t mind giving Iowa St. the benefit of the doubt for now.
Speaking of the Aggies, I learned a couple of facts I wanted to share. (1) Jimbo Fisher makes more than 20 times as much per year as Appalachian St. head coach Shawn Clark. (2) Texas A&M has 56 players who were either 4- or 5-star recruits out of high school, but Appalachian St. has just 1.
Rank | Team | Last |
1 | Georgia | 3 |
2 | Alabama | 1 |
3 | Ohio St. | 2 |
4 | Clemson | 4 |
5 | Michigan St. | 5 |
6 | Michigan | 6 |
7 | Ole Miss | 7 |
8 | Arkansas | 8 |
9 | Oklahoma St. | 9 |
10 | Oklahoma | 10 |
11 | Kentucky | 20 |
12 | B. Young | 17 |
13 | Cincinnati | 13 |
14 | Miss. St. | 16 |
15 | TX Christian | 18 |
16 | N. Carolina St. | 19 |
17 | U. Miami | 21 |
18 | Wake Forest | 22 |
19 | Baylor | 11 |
20 | Maryland | 25 |
21 | Marshall | — |
22 | Oregon St. | — |
23 | Tennessee | — |
24 | Texas Tech | — |
25 | Iowa St. | — |
— | Texas A&M | 12 |
— | Notre Dame | 14 |
— | Iowa | 15 |
— | Pittsburgh | 23 |
— | Florida | 24 |
Alabama, Clemson, College Football, Georgia, LSU, Michigan, Ohio St., Penn St., Pittsburgh, SEC, Texas, Texas Tech, top 25, USC, Utah
Preseason/Week 0 Top 25 2023
In Bowls, College Football, College Football Playoff, Rankings, Rankings Commentary, Rivalry on September 1, 2023 at 9:00 AMI know Georgia is the defending champion, but I need more continuity if I’m going to consider them the #1 team going into next season. Amost everyone knows the quarterback will be different, but the offensive coordinator is gone and so are most of the targets and running backs. They might gel by the end of the season, but I think preseason rankings shouldn’t just be guesses as to which programs have been good enough in recent years to probably finish near the top.
Ryan Day is still at Ohio St. though. The Buckeyes will also have a new quarterback, but I trust Day to have whoever it is ready right away more than I trust (old and) new Georgia OC Mike Bobo. Day might even have backups who can win Heismans at other schools. I also think the Buckeyes have better continuity in the roster. I hope for their sake they have a kicker who’s a little better from 50 yards, but that’s what separated them from a relatively easy pick to stay #1 going into the season.
I’ll stay in the Big Ten for #3 Michigan. It’s a weird situation where the Wolverines were top five the last two seasons and Alabama was not.
Michigan’s resurgence is mostly based on defense, and the good thing about that is it’s not centered around one player. They seem to be solid everywhere but linebacker.
On offense, Big Blue does have a returning QB and players to block for him, so expect another quality game against the Buckeyes. I have been a little less impressed with Michigan’s consistency though, so this is why I couldn’t justify putting them higher.
While I’m pretty confident the winner of Michigan and Ohio St. will be the team to beat in the Big Ten (no offense to Penn St., who has a habit of being really good one year but mediocre the next) if not the entirety of college football, I don’t feel the same way about the SEC. Of course I’d be surprised if anyone other than Georgia won the East, but I don’t have a strong feeling about the West.
LSU certainly has the talent to do so. Somehow the Tigers managed to pull it off last year even though Brian Kelly basically took over a JV team that was embarrassed in the bowl in January 2022. I don’t think LSU was actually the better team overall last season though. They were the day of the Alabama game, but they definitely were not in the first week against Florida St. or the last (regularly-scheduled) week against Texas A&M.
Like the change of fortune I expect for Ohio St. and Georgia, my instinct is to reverse the order here and give the nod to the Tide. I am skeptical this will be the first time that there will be back-to-back failures by Alabama to either win the SEC West or the national championship under Saban or the first back-to-back divisional wins by LSU ever. LSU also hasn’t won three of five against Alabama since 2007-2011.
I think Kelly has things headed in the right direction, but I still think there will be growing pains before the Tigers are in a playoff position. Of course I hope I’m wrong.
I’m not saying that the playoff will be only two conferences, but I think these will at least be the best 4 teams before the Ohio St.-Michigan game (and including LSU, the best 5 before the LSU-Bama game). I don’t feel strongly about any candidate outside of those two conferences. There are several teams that could be this year’s TCU (maybe not as big of a surprise, but someone from outside the SEC and Big Ten whose record is too good to pass up), but it’s hard to be confident in any one of them.
A lot of people have USC as the top team outside of those two conferences, but I think the main reason (other than hype) the Trojans were so high at points last season was the overall lack of competition. I recognize they lost to Tulane in flukey circumstances, but it was about time for someone other than Utah to expose their weaknesses. I don’t see USC beating any of the five teams I’ve mentioned.
One that I could see as more likely to win the necessary big games to make a Playoff is Clemson. If another one-point game had gone differently, they probably would have done so last season.
On offense, all the skill players should be improved, and it seems the OC position will be upgraded. Broyles Award winner Garrett Riley of the aforementioned Horned Frogs takes over that job. There may be some issues with depth, but the Tigers also have a talented defense. It might not be enough to contain a playoff offense, but it may be enough to get them there. Most playoff games are won by the more efficient offense anyway.
The USC defense has a lot to prove, but I apply a similar analysis to the Trojans. If things go well, it may be hard to turn them down for a Playoff spot. I think Dabo has shown more ability to do something once there than Lincoln Riley has. Like with Brian Kelly, I’m a little skeptical that all of the cultural problems will be gone in Riley’s second season.
So I think those are the main Playoff contenders at the moment.
I did want to note that Washington will probably be lower on the list than they are in some other places since they had a major injury to Cam Davis, who would probably have been the star running back in the Pac-12.
Speaking of the Pac-12, Utah is another team to watch, but my concern would be they peaked last year and may not have the staying power of my top 7.
I think it makes some sense in preseason to give the benefit of the doubt to programs that have been the most successful of late, but I don’t agree with treating teams that way just for being good last year.
There could be a team out of left field again that makes or at least competes for a playoff spot, but I’m not going to go into detail about any of the others on the list below. It’s just going to be snap judgments based on last year’s results and known quantities who are returning.
Ole Miss (who entered the bowls at #26) ended up being the worst team on my list going into the bowls last season that did not win its bowl game, so that gives you an idea of how seriously I tend to take predictions of miraculous transformations from December of one year to September of the next.
Pitt and Texas Tech were too far out to make the final top 25 last season (see below) despite quality bowl wins, but they were impressive enough and seem to have enough coming back to make the top 25 now. The only teams I dropped out to make room for them and Ole Miss were the Group of 5 teams who all happened to start with T. Boise St. seemed most likely to maintain its success, so I did leave the Broncos in.
I did complete my top 25 before the Florida/Utah game, but I didn’t want to just rush out a low-quality blog. I didn’t complete it before Notre Dame/Navy or USC/San Jose St., but those did not affect my rankings. I didn’t consider Florida because they didn’t finish in the top 50 of my last ratings anyway. That was my cutoff to be considered.
I never did a final top 25 for last year, but you can figure out what it was below. The teams I had as #26 to #31 and #33 to #35 going into the bowls all lost their bowl games, so there weren’t any changes to the teams that made up the top 25 after the bowls, just the order.
Out of Top 25: (9) Tulane, (15) Troy, (20) TX San Antonio