2021 Week 8 Top 25

The computer rankings are still a little more volatile than I’d like, so there are still some manual adjustments on my part, though not as much as last week. Part of the reason is that the middle of the top 25 is very close together.  This is why Penn St. fell 11 spots, which is unusual when it’s almost November, even though Illinois is a pretty bad team to lose to.  Auburn fell 7 spots just for having a bye week.  I was merciful to both and put them both a spot higher below, but that was mostly because I didn’t think it made sense for Virginia to jump ahead.  It’s not like Georgia Tech (the Cavs’ opponent on Saturday) is a powerhouse right now. Also, they will have the opportunity to prove me wrong against any of their next three opponents, who are all currently ranked.

For illustration of how close the middle of the rankings are, Michigan is further ahead of Wake Forest (#3 in the computer ratings) in points than #9 Kentucky is ahead of #20 BYU.  Also, #10 Oklahoma is as far ahead of #23 Auburn as #1 Georgia is ahead of #2 Michigan. 

Illinois WR Casey Washington celebrates the winning catch in the 9th “overtime”/6th round of 2-point conversion shootout in State College, PA, yesterday.

Speaking of which, Oklahoma once again didn’t look much better than one of the worst teams in the computer ratings.  In week 1, the Sooners were a score away from losing to now-#127 (that’s 4^th-to-last) Tulane at home.  Yesterday in Lawrence, #115 Kansas led OU going into the fourth quarter and was within one score until the final minute of the game.  Anyway, I guess reasonable that Oklahoma isn’t that far statistically from the bottom of the top 25 even though they look secure if you just look at the number of spots. 

It’s also a reminder that being near the bottom of the list doesn’t mean a team is not capable.  You can understand why a team like Tulane was bowl-eligible a couple of years ago.  This is why it doesn’t bother me that undefeated teams that aren’t very tested on paper have found their way in to the top 20.  There may be a few teams near the bottom pf FBS and some FCS opponents who aren’t as capable as Tulane and Kansas, but a good record is more meaningful to me now than it used to be since this year has shown just how deep the capable teams go. It might have something to do with good players who don’t get a chance at the top schools being able to find a team in the transfer portal, I’m not sure.

As I indicate in the intro to the computer ratings, it will likely be over a week before you hear from me again.  I will try to figure out a better way of publishing them than what I have now.

I made the right decision not to include either Western Michigan or North Carolina St. in my list last week. I made a similar judgment this week. I decided to keep Arkansas in the rankings in lieu of replacing them with Wisconsin. It will be interesting to see if the Razorbacks can return to their level of play against Texas A&M. Regardless, the Badgers have an opportunity to get the necessary points against Iowa.

Top 25

rank team last
1 Georgia 1
2 Michigan 2
3 Alabama 9
4 Wake Forest 13
5 Cincinnati 5
6 Oklahoma St. 3
7 Iowa 7
8 Oklahoma 4
9 Kentucky 6
10 Michigan St. 8
11 Notre Dame 11
12 Ohio St. 12
13 Ole Miss 14
14 San Diego St. 22
15 Baylor 16
16 TX-San Antonio 21
17 Texas A&M 23
18 Oregon 24
19 Pittsburgh 18
20 B. Young 19
21 Penn St. 10
22 Auburn 15
23 Virginia —
24 Air Force 17
25 Arkansas 25

Out of top 25: (20) Purdue

2021 Week 7 Top 25

Obviously the ideal is not to publish my rankings on Saturday morning, but I was so close to completing all the team records for the first round of my computer formula I had to finish. 

I did a pretty good job of anticipating how this might look with my rankings last week; but I still didn’t want to abruptly transition to following the computer formula to a T, especially since I didn’t complete every component of the computer rating yet.

To be more specific about what I looked at (skip this paragraph if you don’t care for technical details), this is only the unweighted portion of the formula.  I use the weighted formula more to differentiate the top teams at the end of the season.  Also, I did not go through the records of the FCS/I-AA teams.  I just gave them all a record of 1-1 unless they were completely winless. I wanted to make sure a completely winless FCS team didn’t count for more than a completely winless FBS team, although both winless FBS teams (Arizona and UNLV) lost to FCS opponents anyway.  In this year more than other recent seasons, it seems the bottom of the FBS is worse than the top of the FCS.  There are a few other FBS teams whose only wins were over FCS opponents.  I think they rate similarly as opponents to the generic FCS opponent’s rating I gave.

Anyway, as a result of this being part of the transitional phase, I allowed some deviation from the computer formula.  I did not move any team more than 4 spots from where the computer placed them.  I didn’t move any of the top 6 more than one spot from where the computer had them.  There was a little bit of subjectivity here and there, but mostly the changes to ranking were (1) to give deference to the teams with fewer losses, and (2) to avoid drastic swings from last week to this week without something that happened on the field to justify it. 

For instance, congratulations to Texas-San Antonio for beating Memphis (which beat Mississippi St., which beat Texas A&M, which beat Alabama) earlier in the season, but nothing about beating Rice should catapult you from not being considered at all into the top 20.  They were one of only a couple of teams that I moved down the maximum number of spots. 

In the most decisive major upset of the season, Purdue put a stop to the Iowa offense in a 24-7 win in Iowa City last Saturday. In the above picture, Purdue DT Branson Deen brings down Iowa QB Spencer Petras. One of Purdue’s Twiter accounts said the Boilermakers beat the #2 out of the Hawkeyes.

Another was Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are somewhat overrated by the system because they have not had a bye week and have not played an FCS opponent.  I have a feeling the loss to Purdue may weigh them down more as the season goes on as well.  I moved two undefeated teams (Cincinnati and Oklahoma) and one 1-loss team (Kentucky, whose only loss was to clear #1 Georgia on the road) ahead of Iowa.  Even if Purdue is better than I think (and this isn’t just a somewhat bizarre outcome like when the Boilermakers beat Ohio St. a few years ago), it definitely makes sense to look more negatively at a loss to them than a loss to Georgia.

By the way, I wanted to mention that Georgia is such a “good loss”, that a team could lose to them twice and still not be penalized as many points as they would be for a loss to Mississippi St.

I decided not to put Michigan St. ahead of iowa since the Spartans have a bye week, which usually causes teams to drop in the ratings anyway.  Also, all of the teams the Spartans have beaten so far have losing records, at least the way I calculate it.  There is no strong reason to believe they would have a better record with Iowa’s schedule.  They very well could have three losses against Iowa’s schedule, in fact.  The Spartans have plenty of opportunity left to prove themselves.  Four of their five remaining opponents are ranked in this list, and three of those are in the top 12. If they make it through that with no losses (or maybe one loss), there is a good chance they can settle their differences with Iowa on the field in the Big Ten Championship anyway.

Also, I kept Michigan St., Alabama, Penn St., and Notre Dame in the same order I had them last week.  The computer did not have them in that order, but that’s part of the logical transition in my mind.  Ohio St. was after Notre Dame; and the Buckeyes do have a loss to a lower team anyway, so I didn’t mind taking them out of order compared to last week. 

I prefer not to put any new entrants above #15, so that required a couple of adjustments compared to the computer as well.  Also, I didn’t want Oregon to fall from #15 all the way out. Stanford isn’t very good, but some shady things went on in that game.  The computer doesn’t care of course, and ultimately the computer wins; but for now I think it’s accurate to keep Oregon in the top 25.

Overall, I’m satisfied that I was able to do this without either deviating a lot from the computer or from last week’s list.  Often the first week where I’m this loyal to the computer as the most turnover by far, but five is a very reasonable number.  I had six new teams two weeks ago, and five two weeks before that.  Also, no team moved more than 10 spots on paper.  I don’t know for sure who my #26 team was last week, but it could well have been Baylor. 

I’m only using one picture because I want to get this up and take my morning nap before the games start.  Hopefully the uninterrupted stretches of text aren’t too unpleasant to gaze upon.

Top 25

rank team last
1 Georgia 1
2 Michigan 3
3 Oklahoma St. 4
4 Oklahoma 5
5 Cincinnati 7
6 Kentucky 6
7 Iowa 2
8 Michigan St. 9
9 Alabama 10
10 Penn St. 11
11 Notre Dame 12
12 Ohio St. 8
13 Wake Forest 13
14 Ole Miss 17
15 Auburn 25
16 Baylor —
17 Air Force —
18 Pittsburgh —
19 B. Young 16
20 Purdue —
21 TX-San Antonio —
22 San Diego St. 22
23 Texas A&M 24
24 Oregon 15
25 Arkansas 19

Out of top 25: (14) Coastal Car., (18) Arizona St., (20) Texas, (21) Florida, (23) SMU

2021 Week 6 Top 25

Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to make much progress on my computer ratings. I didn’t want to just keep making case-by-case changes in the rankings though, so I followed a simpler process. For about the first 18 teams I looked at how many wins their FBS opponents had, and I subtracted the number of losses (if any) the teams who beat them suffered. In a few cases, I kept teams in the previous order if they weren’t too far apart (such as Kentucky being ranked after Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.). Michigan was too far ahead in my impromptu formula though, and I can already tell the Wolverines will have some good opponents’ opponents ratings.

After the best undefeated and one-loss teams, I added the best two-loss teams without following the same process. Texas A&M was not in my estimation one of the best two-loss teams because losses came to Arkansas (who has two losses themselves, albeit to good teams) and Mississippi St. (who lost to Memphis and LSU, two teams that are not even close to being ranked).

Likewise, Alabama fell farther than they did in other rankings because of how unimpressive the Aggies had been prior to the game. In mid-October, I don’t give teams like Alabama credit for the last decade or so. As much as possible, I try to restrict all considerations to what has happened on the field this season. See the stats cited in the caption below.

Texas A&M QB Zach Calzada isn’t normally a rushing threat but gained 11 yards on this play in College Station on Saturday. In two previous starts against SEC opponents, Calzada threw 46 passes for 286 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Against Alabama, he threw 31 passes for 285 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.

Don’t get me wrong: Alabama absolutely can come back and win the West if not the national championship. That doesn’t change the fact that their pass defense was just made to look worse than New Mexico’s (who Calzada threw fewer yards against; also, the Lobos sacked him three times while the Tide could not sack him at all), so it doesn’t bother me to drop them to #10 even subjectively.

The fact that I’m not giving credit for status is also part of the reason Ohio St. continued to fall. Another reason was that I’m no longer going to punish teams like Kentucky just because I happen to be more skeptical that the Wildcats can make the College Football Playoff than I am that the Buckeyes can.

Other teams went up as I’ve begun to attach less importance to margin of victory. This is why Notre Dame went up a spot while most one-loss teams went down. I can promise you it has nothing do with the history of the program.

rank team last
1 Georgia 2
2 Iowa 5
3 Michigan 14
4 Oklahoma St. 8
5 Oklahoma 12
6 Kentucky 18
7 Cincinnati 4
8 Ohio St. 6
9 Michigan St. 17
10 Alabama 1
11 Penn St. 3
12 Notre Dame 13
13 Wake Forest 23
14 Coastal Car. 10
15 Oregon 7
16 B. Young 9
17 Ole Miss 16
18 Arizona St. 20
19 Arkansas 11
20 Texas 15
21 Florida 19
22 San Diego St. 22
23 SMU —
24 Texas A&M —
25 Auburn 21
Out of rankings: (24) Texas Tech, (25) W. Michigan

2021 Week 5 Top 25

rank team last
1 Alabama 1
2 Georgia 2
3 Penn St. 4
4 Cincinnati 7
5 Iowa 8
6 Ohio St. 6
7 Oregon 3
8 Oklahoma St. 14
9 B. Young 9
10 Coastal Car. 10
11 Arkansas 11
12 Oklahoma 12
13 Notre Dame 13
14 Michigan 17
15 Texas 15
16 Ole Miss 16
17 Michigan St. 18
18 Kentucky —
19 Florida 5
20 Arizona St. —
21 Auburn —
22 San Diego St. 25
23 Wake Forest —
24 Texas Tech —
25 W. Michigan —

Out of rankings: (19) Texas A&M, (20) Baylor, (21) Fresno St., (22) Louisville, (23) C. Florida, (24) UCLA

I don’t really have time to elaborate. I will try to get my computer rankings online this weekend, so I want to allow as much time as possible to work on those. Usually I have them started earlier, but it’s been hard to get back into the habit of things this year.

I had a general rule of no 2-loss teams; but I had to make an exception with Florida, who had two close losses, both to currently undefeated teams (including by 2 points to Alabama, my #1).

Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez, Jr., scored what turned out to be the winning points in the fourth quarter in Lexington on Saturday. It was the Wildcats’ first home win over the Gators since 1986.

2021 Week 4 Top 25

rank team last
1 Alabama 1
2 Georgia 2
3 Oregon 5
4 Penn St. 4
5 Florida 7
6 Ohio St. 8
7 Cincinnati 6
8 Iowa 3
9 B. Young 9
10 Coastal Car. 13
11 Arkansas 17
12 Oklahoma 11
13 Notre Dame 15
14 Oklahoma St. 16
15 Texas 19
16 Ole Miss 20
17 Michigan 22
18 Michigan St. 23
19 Texas A&M 14
20 Baylor —
21 Fresno St. 21
22 Louisville —
23 C. Florida —
24 UCLA 25
25 San Diego St. —

Out of rankings: (10) Clemson, (12) Liberty, (18) Iowa St., (24) Wyoming

Sorry this is so late.  Normally I would push a blog back at this hour, but it had to be posted given that it’s now Saturday on the east coast.

I don’t usually drop a team as far as I did Clemson, but that’s the danger with leaving a 1-loss team in the top 25 at this time of the season.  Two losses is too high a percentage of the season to stay ranked, but at the same time losing to what looks like one of the best teams so far shouldn’t necessarily knock you out of the top 10.

Liberty also fell all the way out, but I don’t think I’ll get much push-back there.

I can’t get on board with some of the other ACC teams I’ve seen getting votes right now.  North Carolina looks bad.  North Carolina St. lost to Mississippi St.  In its only games of note, Wake Forest beat Virginia, who has another loss and it’s to North Carolina, and Florida St.  No need to elaborate about the ’Noles. 

Some lazy pollsters ranked Auburn, but the Tigers should at least go win in Baton Rouge if they want to show there is something special about this year’s team as compared to others from the Plains in recent years.  Maybe Penn St. was a moral victory in the eyes of some, but if there are undefeated teams with actual victories over opponents of some quality, I’ll take them instead.

Iowa struggled against an opponent Vanderbilt beat, so I had to knock them down a bit.  Plus Iowa St. lost again.  I did give Baylor credit for the win over the Cyclones, but again I don’t think it’s appropriate to rank a two-loss team at this point in the season.

Louisville LB Jaylin Alderman made his only snap of the game count when he returned an interception for a touchdown to break the tie in the final 30 seconds against Central Florida.

I’m giving some delayed credit to Louisville, who beat Central Florida two weeks ago.  I took the Knights out but didn’t put the Cardinals in.  Some other teams fell below Central Florida and Louisville last week more than either adding anything significant to their respective resumes.  Reminder that the Knights beat Boise St., who had a strong win over Utah St. last week.  The Broncos did suffer one other loss, but it was to Oklahoma St., so they may be ranked in the coming weeks if they continue to do well in the Mountain West.

Speaking of which, I decided to take Wyoming out (Ball St. isn’t as good as i thought they were previously; also, the Cowboys barely beat Connecticut) and replace them with another Mountain West team, San Diego St.  The Aztecs are 2-0 against the Pac-12, although Arizona barely counts.  Utah is a respectable win though, at least based on information available so far.