Pre-Bowl Top 25 and LSU 2024 Schedule

LSU’s 2024 Schedule : Historical and Competitive Ramifications

I’ve sat down to this blog a few times, and each time some other news item comes out.  The most recent event was the release of LSU’s schedule with the actual dates. 

I decided to just cover that and the top 25 for now.  Interesting bowl games (to me anyway) are still about two weeks away, so the rest can wait.

We’ve known all the teams on LSU’s 2024 schedule for a while but not who LSU was playing on what date.  The one constant going back as long as I remember is Alabama after a bye week and between about November 3 and 12, this time on the 9th. Alabama seems to keep roughly the same order from year to year, but no one else does that I’ve noticed. 

Given the addition of the second bye, I like that it was added before Ole Miss.  That’s been a tough contest lately.  LSU has a three-game losing streak in College Station, but I’m still less worried about that game than about Ole Miss.

Texas A&M was scheduled on the traditional late October date for Ole Miss though. LSU will play the Rebels two weeks earlier, with Arkansas sandwiched in between. 

LSU WR Chris Hilton and the Tigers came up short in the final seconds in Oxford in September. LSU won four “Magnolia Bowls” in a row from 2016 to 2019, but since then the winner has always been the home team.

Florida was traditionally around the date the Ole Miss game is scheduled, but this might be the last year of what has been an annual series since 1971 anyway.  It was also after Alabama this year, so it was easy to leave it where it was.  At least they weren’t both road games in either year.

LSU doesn’t have a long ongoing annual tradition with anyone else on the 2024 schedule. 

They had only played Texas A&M once (in a bowl) between 1995 and 2012, the year the Aggies joined the SEC. LSU had previously played the Aggies in early September, but it’s different when it’s not a conference game.  

I wouldn’t be opposed to making it an early game in the future though, especially since LSU won’t play Auburn annually anymore. Mississippi St. was a typical September fixture for a while also, although on the traditional schedule they were after Alabama. I’m still annoyed LSU plays neither Auburn nor Mississippi St. next year.

Since the annual series with Tulane ended in 1994, LSU has played whatever somewhat proximate SEC is left without a good end-of-year rival. Arkansas was not particularly close to and had no longstanding recent rivalry with anyone in the SEC when it entered, so that was fine for about 20 years. Then after Missouri and Texas A&M joined (and two “transitional” years elapsed), it made sense to split that up when it became clear that the Aggies weren’t playing Texas anytime soon.

Now that the Thanksgiving/rivalry-week Longhorns-Aggies series is rekindled and Bedlam is on hiatus, it wasn’t a huge shock that LSU finishes with Oklahoma in Baton Rouge. We are used to playing a team with a reddish color from a neighboring conference to the west.

The SEC could have mixed things up in some other ways in 2024, but it was easier not to, especially since next year is just a one-off and not part of any dedicated rotation. Just as a neutral fan of college football and historical rivalries, my hope is that Oklahoma either can manage to schedule Oklahoma St. again or that they play Missouri on rivalry week. I would be OK with LSU going back to Arkansas or having some type of rotation (perhaps switching between Oklahoma and Arkansas or between Vanderbilt and Kentucky). There was some history with Kentucky. LSU played the Wildcats 51 years in a row at one point (ending with the 2002 season).

Ollie Gordon II rushes for one of two touchdowns in the 27-24 win in Stillwater, OK, on November 4. Although Bedlam has typically been a close game in recent years, Oklahoma had beaten Oklahoma St. eight of nine seasons going into 2021.  The Cowboys ended on a high note though, winning two of the last three.

As far as I’m concerned, LSU could even go back to playing Tulane if the two sides could come anywhere close to a mutually agreeable deal; but since that hasn’t happened in nearly 30 years, I’m not optimistic. There was a home-and-home in 2006 and 2007, but LSU felt like they gave up revenue from a potential home game to enrich Tulane. Since then, LSU has played every other Louisiana Division I program, all of whom seem content with being paid money to travel to Tiger Stadium occasionally rather than expecting a home-and-home exchange.

Anyway, putting tradition aside, I like that there aren’t brutal back-to-back weeks. Going to Florida after hosting Alabama isn’t ideal, but there is only one instance of LSU playing 2023 bowl teams two weeks in a row, and that’s UCLA and South Alabama (both were barely eligible and both will be home games).

USC and UCLA are separated by Nicholls St. and South Carolina. The Bruins or Gamecocks could have a good year, but I doubt both will. I don’t see much risk of looking past an SEC road game or coming down from an emotional high for the first home game that is against a Power 5 opponent.

There were years when I’ve been glad LSU got an apparently tough opponent from what we used to call the SEC East, but we didn’t need one given the out-of-conference slate. Also, I’m not even sure if you need a good non-annual schedule, especially if the SEC eventually adds a ninth game, in the playoff system. I guess we will see how lines get drawn between 4 and 5, 8 and 9, and 12 and 13 in playoff selection

Top 25

Other than their effects upon the Playoff resumes as mentioned in the previous blog, I didn’t have much to say about the conference championship games because they weren’t very surprising.  I don’t know why Oregon was favored by so much; but as I kept telling everyone, they didn’t deserve it.  I wasn’t a big believer in Georgia since the only SEC West teams they faced were Auburn and Ole Miss and they didn’t do anything out of conference until beating an average Georgia Tech team a couple of weeks ago.  Very good Alabama teams have struggled with Auburn before, so I didn’t attach much importance to that.  In lieu of Georgia, I admittedly picked the “wrong” Big Ten team as #1, but it wasn’t my fault Ohio St. had a better schedule than Michigan.  As expected, the Wolverines had no problem with Iowa. 

I’m listing my top 25 teams below, but I think they all fairly logically proceed from the results of those games and what I had written about the Playoff teams last week.

Rank	Team	Last
1	Washington	1
2	Michigan	2
3	Alabama	5
4	Texas	4
5	Florida St.	6
6	Georgia	3
7	Ohio St.	7
8	Oklahoma	11
9	Oregon	8
10	Penn St.	9
11	Ole Miss	10
12	Missouri	13
13	Liberty	17
14	LSU	15
15	Iowa	12
16	James Madison	14
17	Troy	22
18	Louisville	16
19	Notre Dame	21
20	N Carolina St.	18
21	So. Methodist	—
22	Tulane	19
23	Toledo	20
24	Arizona	24
25	Miami U.	—

Out of Top 25: (23) Oklahoma St., (25) Oregon St.

Honorable mention: Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Oregon St., Clemson, Memphis

Reaction to CFP and LSU’s Bowl Selection

My top 4 agrees with the committee’s, and I would even have the same matchups. I would have had Washington and Texas in the Rose Bowl though, which makes more sense geographically; and I wouldn’t have made the Longhorns (who are supposedly the worse seed) close being at home.

My top 4 is based on the best teams.  I’m not saying that I don’t think a team like Florida St., which went undefeated and even played two programs with multiple championships in the last 20 years out of conference, should be included in the top 4; but I think Alabama and Texas both have strengths of schedule that cancel out the additional loss and then some.

Florida St.’s Exclusion

The committee’s instructions do not include something that says, “an undefeated conference champion should be given priority over a conference champion who is not undefeated.” 

I would be OK with adding such a stipulation, especially if it also added language that said an exception could be made if the non-conference schedule is particularly weak, which would certainly not be the case here. 

My point is the committee did its job.  If I were a one-man committee with the same instructions, I would have put aside my preference for including Florida St. and given the same list of best 4 teams.

There is also language that the committee can consider injuries to major players.  I don’t consider anything like that in my formula, and I can’t think of any consistent way you could apply that to any formula.  There are no strict standards for injury reporting in college football like there is in the NFL.  Even if there were, it would be difficult to enforce that and provide consistent oversight for injury reports of all 133 teams and then add those reports to a formula.  I don’t like the idea of using that as an argument because every team has a mix of players who are hurt or otherwise unavailable from game to game that can affect any outcome.  Others are playing hurt or playing with some other type of stress or distraction.

In the only touchdown drive of the game by either team, Lawrance Toafili (#9) rushed for 75 yards in two plays. Florida St. won the ACC championship, 16-6, over Louisville in Charlotte last night. It was the Seminoles’ first conference championship (and first 13-0 start) since Jimbo Fisher and Jameis Winston led the team in 2014.

What I do think is fair, and what I think the committee did, is to look at how they played at the end of the year.  They did not look like a top-4 team against Florida or Louisville.  I don’t think they looked like a top-20 team in either game.  I have Louisville in the top 20; but if I considered the trajectory of their season, I wouldn’t have them anywhere close.  I have Kentucky #47 right now, and the Wildcats won at Louisville 8 days ago.

I don’t include that in my formula, but I’ve never had a problem with the basketball or baseball committee’s giving more weight to recent results, and I don’t fault the football committee for doing so.  If there were no SEC championship and Alabama beat Georgia earlier in the year, I wouldn’t want them to be given less credit for that, but obviously the committee isn’t being unfair about when you any played a given game.  If anything, I think they’re being charitable to Texas for not considering how long ago the Alabama game was (or any game against a top-20 opponent was) in ranking Texas #3.  But the point is that’s why I don’t include it in my formula.  It could yield unfair results that way, but a person can avoid such outcomes.

So I have Florida St. fifth without considering margin of victory, how the Seminoles looked in those games, or the Jordan Travis injury.  I also didn’t consider how Florida and Louisville were playing, just their respective seasons as a whole.  So I think there are more than enough factors not to consider Florida St. to be a top-4 team.  It’s not just one thing.  But as I said, I’m very sympathetic if you ask me who should get to play for the championship instead of who the four best teams are.

Some people are coping by saying, “at least it’s an expanded playoff next year”; but that doesn’t give me any consolation personally.  None of the major-conference championship games would have been for a spot in the top 12 this year.  I might not even watch next year if LSU isn’t in it.  There is a good chance the committee will already know exactly who the top 12 is by championship weekend, and the games will solely be for seeding.  I’ll have my opinions again, but it will lose a lot of the excitement.

Alabama vs. Texas

To go back to the Alabama-Texas discussion I began in previous blogs (especially the last rankings blog) and touched on a couple of paragraphs ago, I think too much attention is being paid to a head-to-head game in September and not enough attention is being paid to all the games since then.  I have Alabama #2 in strength of schedule vs. FBS teams and Texas 21^st.  Texas does get a little more credit for playing all FBS teams though.  If I ignore Chattanooga from Alabama’s schedule and drop Baylor from Texas’s schedule, Alabama still ends up stronger.  The average of the best 12 teams Alabama faced is about equal to that of #39 Iowa St.  The average of the best 12 teams Texas faced is about equal to that of #51 Northwestern.

So now I’m going to get to arguments from outside of looking at the computers.  Alabama has a better loss from longer ago.  The #1 wins by each team are roughly even (Alabama vs. Georgia), but I would give Alabama more credit for getting the win in December versus September.  Even if you still give Texas a point from there to make the two teams even, I don’t know how you argue LSU and Ole Miss aren’t better wins than Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. 

I think Texas would have to have a far superior list of the more middle-of-the-road wins to overcome that, and I don’t think they do.  Texas beat Wyoming, Iowa St., and Texas Tech.  Alabama beat Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Auburn.  Those are pretty similar lists of three.  Although it did fall a little short, I do think the Longhorns made a very good attempt at playing the necessary type of schedule to prepare them for an SEC season.  If you’re one of those people who says, “sorry, that win over Auburn was ugly and if they’re that close, I’m going with head to head,” that’s a reasonable point of view.  It’s just not how I see it.  I would have been perfectly happy to have joined you in laughing at Alabama if Texas and Florida St. had made it ahead of the Tide though.

Alabama WR Isaiah Bond (who may have pushed off first) catches the go-ahead touchdown pass on fourth and 31 in Auburn 8 days ago. The need for a miracle finish in this situation is one argument against Alabama’s inclusion in the top 4.

As I mentioned, what I don’t like is when someone says, “I don’t care what else they did, they each have a loss and Alabama’s is to Texas. End of story.”  That’s just wanting to rush to a conclusion and not consider the season as a whole.  Word keeps telling me not to use the phrase “season as a whole,” but I don’t know a better way to distinguish my more holistic approach from the approach of just cherry-picking a couple of factoids and stopping there.

Washington vs. Michigan

I don’t have strong feelings about Washington ahead of Michigan, but I’ll lay out the arguments.  I have Michigan about 99% as good as Washington, so there isn’t a huge separation.  I like that Washington had a much tougher game this weekend, but obviously Michigan had a much tougher rivalry-week opponent.  Maybe some of the narrow margins of victory (both Oregon games, Arizona, Arizona St., Utah, Oregon St., and Washington St. were all within one possession) hurt the Huskies.  Michigan had a robust list of top-three wins: Ohio St., Penn St., and Iowa.  I think Oregon would beat Ohio St. and Penn St. but it was just unfortunate for the Ducks that they had to play a top-2 team twice instead of Ohio St.’s once.  Iowa is a better third win than Washington’s third, which might be Arizona.  But then Michigan’s fourth- and fifth-best wins are UNLV and Bowling Green (they didn’t play Northwestern or Wisconsin, which are my two highest Big Ten teams after Iowa).  I strongly believe both would lose to both Oregon St. and Utah and probably USC as well.

LSU Bowl Selection Reaction

D’Cota Dixon celebrates the game-clinching interception of LSU QB Brandon Harris in 2016 in Green Bay, Wisc., as LSU was driving with just under a minute left in the game. This was one of the final nails in the coffin for LSU head coach Les Miles, who was fired three weeks later.

I’m sure I’ll go more into bowl match-ups later, but I’m disappointed that LSU will be playing Wisconsin.  I was hoping for either Notre Dame, which would give the Tigers a chance to get revenge for some foolishness in bowl losses over the last 10 years (as well as being the Brian Kelly bowl), or Iowa.  The contrast in styles for Iowa/LSU would have been worth getting up early for.  Wisconsin isn’t an offensive juggernaut – they haven’t scored more than 30 points in a game since September – but they’re not Iowa.  Wisconsin isn’t even in my top 50.  I think either LSU won’t get up for the game and it will be ugly regardless of the winner or we could get another blowout like last season.  Neither would be a very satisfying end to the year. It’s one of six bowl games between the SEC and the Big Ten.

Top 25 Later This Week

I have my top 25 ready.  Of course it’s mostly based on my ratings with a few adjustments, but I don’t want to overshadow it with all of the discussion of the top 4, so look for that later in the week.

Rivalry Week Top 25 & Look Ahead

I started writing this at a reasonable time, but I had some distractions and decided to add an extra section. I settled on just one picture to get it published faster. Even my cat is wondering what’s taking so long.

CFP Reaction and Playoff Considerations

The committee has had last-second changes of heart before, but I think they’re still telegraphing pretty clearly that the Pac-12 championship game is for a playoff spot. They don’t care if Oregon only has the 52nd toughest schedule, compared to Alabama having the #5 schedule (vs. FBS), Ohio St. having the #25 schedule, and Texas having the #31 schedule. (Texas did not play an FCS opponent, so I’d argue for the Longhorns ahead of the Buckeyes assuming a win this weekend.) They just love Bo Nix and his passes that travel all of five yards in the air regardless of the competition. I’m usually for undefeated teams that keep getting lucky (like Washington) to lose but not in this case. I don’t dislike Oregon or Bo Nix, I’ve talked about him and his family positively on this blog. I just hate these hype campaigns and biased “eye tests” that ignore facts.

Anyway, a secondary issue is that Ohio St. is too high as the #2 one-loss team according to the committee, but I highly doubt Alabama stays behind the idle Buckeyes if the Tide beat Georgia. I’d be more worried if I were Texas. I’ve talked about how if it came down to Texas and Alabama, Texas would go ahead due to head-to-head; but there is no such issue if the last spot were to come down to Ohio St. and Alabama. Just keep that in mind if you’re counting on Saban not being in the Playoff.

I did notice something that I believe helps a potential argument for an SEC team to either be in the playoff with one loss or be #1 even if there are multiple undefeated teams. It’s that the top 5 teams in the SEC (Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU) have only lost to each other or to a team in the CFP top 7 (or in my top 7).

The only two home losses by the top 5 of the SEC were Alabama to Texas and Missouri to LSU. I mention that because it generally took a hostile environment combined with a very good team to bring these teams down. I think given that Ole Miss had to play both championship contenders (both on the road) and beat LSU, they belong ahead of Missouri, but that’s another mystery of the committee. Maybe they just don’t like Lane Kiffin’s tweets.

So if Alabama wins, they will have beaten three of the four other teams in the top 5 (all but Missouri). If Georgia wins, they will also have beaten three of the four other teams (all but LSU).

Anyway, you obviously don’t get that kind of quality anywhere else. I have been an advocate for Oregon St., but they have four losses now and even this committee who loves the Pac-12 only has them 20th. That’s a big drop off. They lost to a Washington St. team who finished with a losing record. Arizona, who’s become the darling Pac-12 team lately, lost to a mediocre USC team and lost to Mississippi St., who like Wazzu finishes with a losing record.

You can go three teams deep in the Big Ten, but Big Ten #4 Iowa has that ugly loss to Minnesota, who also finished with a losing record. It wasn’t necessarily a fair loss, but maybe if the Golden Gophers had needed another score to win, it would have changed the way the game ended. The point is the top of the SEC isn’t nearly as threatened with mediocrity as the top of these other conferences has been.

I shouldn’t even have to mention the Big XII. The team that made the title game (they don’t have divisions, so they’re not #4 and lucked into the title game like Iowa did, they actually finished second overall in the conference {winning a tie-breaker over Oklahoma}) lost to South Alabama by 26, to Iowa St. by 7, and to Central Florida by 42! Those three teams each barely qualified for a bowl, and South Alabama is 6-6 despite playing in the Sun Belt. Losing to Oklahoma, a team who lost to Oklahoma St., should count against Texas even if the Longhorns will have beaten the Cowboys. And it shouldn’t be brushed off as, “Texas only lost a team who tied for second in their conference, no big deal.”

I took some criticism this week in one of the discussion groups I’m in for not thinking head-to-head tie-breakers are always fair. The Big XII is a perfect example. Texas was the #1 team. I think if two teams are tied for second, the first question should be “did you play the #1 team?” If the answer for one is yes and the other is no, the team who answered yes should win the tie-breaker. You don’t reward the team who answered no and lost to worst teams (Oklahoma St. and Kansas went a combined 12-6 in the Big XII; Iowa St. and Central Florida went a combined 9-9).

So let’s say undefeated Florida St., undefeated Michigan, 1-loss Oregon, 1-loss Georgia, 1-loss Washington, 1-loss Ohio St., 1-loss Texas, and 1-loss Alabama. We can put the undefeated teams aside, but I think when you rank the one-loss teams by resume, the first thing you should ask is “was the one loss to one of the teams in this pool of playoff candidates”. If it was, those teams should get a leg up. In this case, that would be all the 1-loss teams except Texas. Then we’d talk about wins. Texas and Alabama will have had the two best wins in my opinion, but then who’s #2 and #3? Texas’s would be borderline top-25 teams Kansas St. and Oklahoma St. Alabama’s would be solid top-15 teams Ole Miss and LSU. I don’t think you ignore that because Texas was the better team on a given Saturday in September.

I’m not saying how you sort out the rest of that mess if it happens, but I am saying I think in that scenario I’d like to see Alabama with a higher ranking than Texas. I like a fair national championship system more than I like to see Nick Saban upset, but it’s a close call, so I won’t be all that angry if Texas goes ahead. This isn’t SEC homerism either. I mentioned Georgia. I’d have to see how the numbers shake out, but right now I have Georgia 81st in schedule strength vs. FBS and Texas 31st. They’ll get closer this weekend but not that much closer; and as mentioned, I’d give Texas an edge for not having played an FCS opponent also. In addition, I’m also in favor of resolving doubts in favor of conference champions, at least while we still have a 4-team playoff. So I’d want a 1-loss Texas ahead of a 1-loss Georgia.

LSU’s Defense Going Forward

The drumbeats about LSU needing a new defensive coordinator continue despite the results over the weekend seemingly casting down on that necessity.

Texas A&M recently scored 51 points against Mississippi St., a team against which Ole Miss only managed 17 points on Thanksgiving. The Aggies managed less than 60% of that total against LSU on Saturday.

Are they really sure LSU’s defense hasn’t improved from giving up 55 to Ole Miss?

Also, they keep repeating the idea that the LSU coaching staff was not able to make defensive adjustments. That’s interesting given that Texas A&M scored 24 points in the first 39 minutes (0.62 points per minute) and only 6 in the remaining 21 minutes (0.29 points per minute).

Jayden Daniels breaks free of the Texas A&M front seven in the first half in Baton Rouge on Saturday. Although two of the touchdowns were 1-yard runs by running backs, Daniels led the Tigers to six touchdown drives versus just three punts against the best defense the Tigers have faced all season. Daniels accounted for 235 yards passing and 120 yards rushing. LSU runs its record to 9-3 against the Aggies since the latter joined the SEC in 2012. Texas A&M has not won in Baton Rouge since 1994.

Texas A&M is the second-beat team LSU beat. Against the best team, the Tigers were also improved in the second half. Missouri had scored 25 in the first half against LSU and only 14 in the second half. Then the anti-House activists say weird things like, “if LSU doesn’t get a pick-6, they might have lost that game.” Is that not a good defensive play? It’s just bizarre. They also say that about Greg Penn’s interception against Texas A&M, by the way, even though if you add 7 points to A&M’s total, LSU still wins comfortably. Remember, LSU went into victory formation on first and goal.

Alabama did score 21 in each half; but in the second half, the Tide was aided by an interception of their own deep in LSU territory. Alabama was scoreless over the last 13 minutes. Obviously, they had no urgency to score with Jayden Daniels sidelined and a 14-point lead, but Alabama does not fail to score points at the end of games just to be nice. And that’s a close enough margin not to put all the bench warmers in to see what happens.

Speaking of Alabama, they gave up 6 more points to Auburn last weekend than LSU did. Maybe Saban doesn’t know what he’s doing, right? I know he’s not the coordinator, but I think every knows the buck stops with him on defense at least.

The game before Texas A&M was against Georgia St., a Sun Belt team roughly equivalent to the South Alabama team I mentioned in the previous section (so not the type of team completely incapable of an upset of a top 25 opponent). They scored 14 points in the first 17:15 of the game, but they didn’t score again after that. Are we sure no adjustment was made to ensure that?

I’m not saying Matt House is the best defensive coordinator LSU can get or that he’s worth the salary he’s being paid. But like I was saying about the playoff committee, I really don’t like when facts and a fair evaluation of those facts is pushed aside to push a narrative. It’s the worst defense ever. There were never any improvements at any point during a given game or during the season. Every time they held someone below 20, it’s because the opposing offense was trash and really should have been shut out. This is what the LSU radio shows and podcasts say almost every day.

Before the Alabama game, some of these same commentators admitted that since halftime of the Missouri game, the LSU defense had gotten better. This is when they were pushing the narrative that LSU had a good chance in that game.

Now that they’re pushing the narrative that Jayden Daniels was perfect even in the losses (to be fair, he was pretty close to perfect in the loss to Ole Miss), it’s back to pretending there was functionally no defense at all at any point in any SEC game. I’d like to see Jayden Daniels win the Heisman as much as anyone, but you can just say (accurately) there were a lot of defensive struggles without which he would have had more possessions and a better record. You don’t have to ignore every modicum of success the defense had.

It seems that LSU is not doing all that great in getting defense recruits even though they need them. The media hosts I’m talking about think that’s proof of what they’re saying. I think it’s more proof that the things they’re saying are being believed, not that they’re all true. So the lies and exaggerations that might be made with the idea of helping Jayden Daniels (and that’s my attempt to be charitable about the motivations) might be doing some harm in other areas.

Comments About My Top 25

Michigan had 99.92% as many points (if we set #133 Kent St. at 0 points) as Washington, so it was an extremely close call for #1. I think this is the first time I’ve ever personally ranked Washington #1. I did think they were better than U. Miami in 1991 though. Georgia, who was only playing Georgia Tech, was not surprisingly passed up by Michigan. That does not mean the Bulldogs won’t be in the running for #1 with a win over Alabama though.

I think most of the other teams moved up in a logical and predictable way. You still get a fair amount of credit for beating teams that aren’t in the top 25, and there are a few that are that don’t cause too much damage. That’s why you see a big jump by North Carolina St. Similarly, Louisville only fell a few spots for losing to Kentucky. Oregon St. has lost three out of five games, but they were all to teams ranked higher, so I don’t mind them being #25. The alternative was Kansas St., who just lost to #39 Iowa St.

The Wildcats lead my honorable mentions list though, trading places with Oklahoma St. North Carolina and UNLV lost and were replaced by Kansas and Utah, who were still hanging around after recently falling out of the top 25. Clemson and Memphis remained on the list from last week.

My Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Washington	2
2	Michigan	4
3	Georgia	3
4	Texas	5
5	Alabama	6
6	Florida St.	7
7	Ohio St.	1
8	Oregon	9
9	Penn St.	8
10	Ole Miss	10
11	Oklahoma	11
12	Iowa	15
13	Missouri	12
14	James Madison	18
15	LSU	17
16	Louisville	13
17	Liberty	14
18	N Carolina St.	24
19	Tulane	22
20	Toledo	20
21	Notre Dame	19
22	Troy	21
23	Oklahoma St.	—
24	Arizona	25
25	Oregon St.	23

Out of Top 25: (16) Kansas St.

Honorable mention: Kansas St., Clemson, Memphis, Kansas, Utah

Week 12 Top 25 and CFP Notes 2023

Ratings and College Football Playoff Response/Prediction

The first four teams are all undefeated now, just in time to lose at least one undefeated team this weekend.  It happens to be the same top four as the CFP top 25.  I can argue until I’m blue in the face about Oregon, but I guess people like flashy offenses and uniforms (not to mention years of a hype and a nationwide ad campaign for the quarterback) more than they like a good strength of schedule.  It seems like they’re setting up the possibility of Oregon going to the Playoff in the event of revenge wins over Oregon St. (for last year) and Washington (for both last year and earlier this season).

Putting aside the CFP ramifications, I think Oregon might have some motivation to win this next game.

I don’t think Washington, Georgia, or Florida St. (another undefeated not in the top four) have much chance of a loss this coming weekend, but losses by none of them (except maybe Georgia) would be much stranger than the time 4-7 Pitt beat 10-1 West Virginia in 2007 to help LSU make the championship game. 

Florida and Washington St. have five wins apiece and are playing for bowl eligibility as well as in-state bragging rights, while Georgia Tech is already bowl-eligible.  A late pick-six is likely the only reason Washington beat Arizona St., who is only 3-8.  Despite one fewer win, Florida is a better team than Boston College, whom Florida St. only beat by 2.  Georgia hasn’t really come close to a loss though.

Alabama and Florida St. both lost ground compared to higher teams as a result of playing FCS opponents.  Alabama probably lost a bit less since the SEC gained strength with out-of-conference wins and because Chattanooga is an FCS playoff team.

I suspect that unless Washington and Georgia remain undefeated, removing Oregon and Alabama from the running in the process, the plan is that Florida St. will be excluded from the Playoff.  I don’t know if this was the plan before their QB Jordan Travis was hurt or not.

I don’t think the CFP standings after Alabama matter too much for the national championship, but LSU fans (ironically) should cheer for Missouri and Ole Miss to lose for a better chance at a selection committee (or NY6) bowl or at the CapitalOne Bowl.  It’s ironic because normally it would be a good thing if no one outside of the top 12 beat you and you had a top-10 win, but that’s not how the logic of bowl placement works.

It would be more logical for LSU fans to cheer for Alabama to beat Georgia (whom LSU did not play, if you haven’t noticed) in the SEC Championship game because that would retain the possibility of there being two SEC playoff teams.  This might not be the year for that to happen though given the possibility of four undefeated teams going into championship weekend.  There are also a couple of other teams (I mentioned Oregon; there is also Texas) who could be good one-loss candidates as conference champions.  I think one-loss Texas will go ahead of one-loss Alabama even if they shouldn’t.

Anyway, the rest of this is just about my ratings, not the CFP rankings or what I think they will do.

The Big Ten is now much closer to the Pac-12, which is now #3, as they can look forward to taking the Pac-12’s two best teams (as well as UCLA and USC, which are more in the middle).  They would still be behind the SEC, which will add the Big XII’s two best teams.

I mentioned Arizona St. earlier.  Oregon’s win over the Sun Devils allowed them to get past Ole Miss, who beat an inferior UL-Monroe squad.  Other relatively small differences in quality of opponents accounted for the movement in the rest of the top 20, apart from James Madison, who lost to Appalachian St.  Oregon St. fell a smaller number of spots for losing to Washington, which was a close game as expected.

I had a little bit of trouble figuring out the last two.  I strongly considered Oklahoma St. and Clemson, but they each had three losses that were all big negatives.  Arizona had only one bad loss and one that was mediocre.  Oregon St. and North Carolina St. only had one mediocre-to-bad loss apiece.  Oklahoma St. had the best list of wins, but the others had comparable good wins.  I didn’t hold the fourth loss (to Florida St.) against Clemson, but there weren’t really strong wins to counterbalance the other losses.

It might seem a little weird that North Carolina still has honorable mention status, but the four teams directly below them (Kansas, Utah, Tennessee, and USC) all lost also. Another interesting one is UNLV, whom I have never ranked in the top 25.

My Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Washington	2
3	Georgia	5
4	Michigan	4
5	Texas	6
6	Alabama	7
7	Florida St.	3
8	Penn St.	8
9	Oregon	10
10	Ole Miss	9
11	Oklahoma	13
12	Missouri	12
13	Louisville	15
14	Liberty	16
15	Iowa	14
16	Kansas St.	17
17	LSU	18
18	James Madison	11
19	Notre Dame	23
20	Toledo	21
21	Troy	20
22	Tulane	22
23	Oregon St.	19
24	N Carolina St.	—
25	Arizona	—

Out of Top 25: (24) Utah, (25) Memphis

Honorable mention: Oklahoma St., UNLV, Clemson, Memphis, North Carolina

Week 11 Top 25 2023

I was supposed to have time to do this on Wednesday but ended up having an unusually long (and rainy) work day instead, so I’m writing this on Thursday night (Friday morning for many of you).

Best-laid plans of mice and A&M boosters, I suppose.

Recap of LSU/Florida and Rivalry

It wasn’t because there was nothing to write about. I’m happy to make fun of Texas A&M and Florida, who lost a fifth straight to LSU. No one else has a losing streak to LSU that goes back to the national championship season (unless Vanderbilt’s streak of two counts). Although the LSU/Florida series dates back to 1937 and has been played annually since 1971, this was the first time LSU won five straight. Florida had once won nine straight from 1988 to 1996, but LSU now has its first lead in the series since then. If LSU doesn’t win another game this season, I’ll still feel some measure of success from that fact.

While it is unlikely that the LSU/Florida series will continue annually beyond that, the Tigers will at least make the return trip to Gainesville next year. I will endeavor to update the key Rivalry Series in the next week or so.

Not to be bitter about it, but the damage is done anyway. Having to play Florida every year, which included going to the Swamp every even year (apart from 2016), at least more often than not placed the Tigers at a disadvantage in the SEC West as far back as 1996. I guess it did in years before that too, but LSU was so bad it didn’t really matter. LSU had also played Auburn, which was strong for roughly the same time period, on the road in even years. The combined influence of those two games prevented LSU from winning the West in an even year until last season. The other SEC Championship appearances had been 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2011, and 2019. I acknowledge a certain crimson opponent played a role as well, but LSU’s unique struggles with them really only started in the 2012 calendar year.

LSU had to play Auburn every year by virtue of being in the West (that series will not be played next year), but had the Florida series not been made permanent, playing a different SEC East opponent could have made the difference in 1996 (when LSU would been one game better rather than losing a tie-breaker with Alabama) and 2006 (when LSU would have won a tie-breaker with Arkansas, but the additional loss made that irrelevant).

Given that the game was typically in early October though, it put the Tigers behind in 8-ball in several additional seasons. For example, LSU would have known going into the Arkansas game in 2000 that a win would have sent them to Atlanta (ironically, they went to Atlanta anyway to play in the Peach Bowl). Florida dealt LSU its first loss in 2008, and QB Jarrett Lee was never the same again. If it weren’t for his late-season penchant for throwing “pick sixes”, LSU could have easily won all but one other SEC game. LSU also nearly lost to Troy later in that season (seems like that would have taught the AD a lesson, but I digress). I doubt it affected the SEC championship games, but Florida also dealt LSU its first losses in 2012 and 2018, respectively.

Anyway, this was the largest win by either team since LSU’s 41-11 win in 2011. I’ll give the Gators credit for keeping it close for a while though. It didn’t help LSU that, as a result of a poorly-fielded kickoff, the Gators were able to score twice in just a couple of minutes to take a 28-24 lead in the third quarter. Jayden Daniels is a little bit more reliable for generating points than hoping for points off of turnovers and other miscues though, so the Tigers outscored the Gators 28-7 the rest of the way.

Jayden Daniels rushes against Florida on Saturday in Baton Rouge. He ran so well, I can’t even be certain which play this was; but I believe it was the 85-yard touchdown that was along the left side of the field. Daniels became the first person to pass for 200 yards and run for 200 yards in an SEC game at some point in the third quarter, but he finished with over 350 passing yards, which had never been done along with that many rushing yards. Johnny Manziel had thrown for 200 and rushed for 200 once; but that was in a bowl game, so we really hadn’t seen anything like this before.

The LSU defense and coordinator Matt House continue to get a lot of flak, but keeping Alabama within one possession at least until the fourth quarter (if not the entire rest of the game) and keeping Florida from getting a lead the whole game would have been something to be proud of. It’s just not helpful if you put them on the field with their backs close to the end zone seconds after the previous drive ends.

Response to College Football Playoff Top 25

I’ll start by saying there is nothing really new in terms of grievances with the College Football Playoff’s top 25. Oregon’s being ahead of Alabama and Texas continues to make no sense if you care about schedule strength.

At least Oregon St. is no longer the top 2-loss team, having been passed by Missouri. I don’t expect the Beavers will stay the one of the top 2-loss teams indefinitely anyway given games against Washington and Oregon coming up. If they win both, I’ll be happy for them to be the top 2-loss team though. More on them below.

I’d also like them to care more about the schedules of teams like Arizona and North Carolina, but those are far enough down that I’m not sure they really matter. The Arizona/Arizona St. game might actually be game though. It looked like it was going to be a pillow fight earlier in the year.

Comments about My Ratings

I had a bit of time to smooth out the rough edges this weekend and I still liked the results to add the original ratings back in as I described last week.  It also makes sense for some of the teams lower in the ratings because there is a number I have to adjust to factor in the bad teams so one bad loss doesn’t swallow multiple wins.  I can re-add the original ratings without that adjustment though, which I think is the fairer approach.

I was also able to do conference ratings and strength of schedule.  I will wait another week to see if the strength of schedule is giving teams enough credit in the ratings.  That might also be a further adjustment to the formula.  The same basic numbers and computations are being used regardless, it’s just been a continuing balancing act over years between giving credit for wins and giving credit for quality of competition.

It’s amazing that LSU, Ole Miss, and Penn St. have only seven combined losses and are still in the top 7 of the strength of schedule.  Duke is the only other team in the top 12 with a winning record.  Others in the top 20 with winning records are Utah, Kansas St., Kansas, Notre Dame, Missouri, and USC.  I did opt not to put Kansas in the top 25 below due to some of the losses they have though.

I think it’s fair that even though Michigan and Georgia still don’t have great schedules that this recognizes their schedules are now comparable enough that they should be ranked ahead of teams with losses like Texas and Alabama. I think barring any major upsets (based on rank, not necessarily based on betting line), most people would agree that the Top 4 should be Big Ten champion, SEC champion, undefeated Florida St., and undefeated Washington. If Alabama were to lose the SEC championship, the next beneficiary (for now) of a potential upset should be Texas if they win out. This recognizes that.

The conference ratings weren’t very surprising.  The SEC and Big Ten are neck and neck, but I think the SEC will pull away slightly next week given the out-of-conference games.  There are non-conference games the week after that, but I don’t like Kentucky’s, Florida’s, or South Carolina’s chances against ACC opponents (I’m not too worried about Georgia), so that might bring the SEC closer to the Big Ten again.

The SEC would still be ahead after adding the new programs to the Big Ten and the SEC.  That’s not really proof of too much about next season anyway given that Washington, Oklahoma, etc., can’t get as many good wins without hurting someone else in their respective future conferences next season.  It might mean that the Big Ten will be harder to beat in future seasons; but on the other hand, maybe Oregon and Washington fall back to the more mediocre status they occupied not too long ago.

Washington is very close to getting the top spot in the computer ratings.  I definitely think the Huskies will have that spot with a win, but they might lose it the week after (Washington St. wouldn’t count for nearly as much as Michigan would) and reclaim it the week after that (Oregon would count for a lot more than Iowa would). I expect to keep Ohio St. #1 here however for the next couple of weeks absent a loss or something really concerning. I’ll be very interested in how the ratings shape up after the conference championships though.

The initial line I saw had Washington barely favored over Oregon St., and then I saw one in which the Beavers were favored.  I definitely think that’s the big game this weekend. As I’ve mentioned, the Huskies have a couple of very narrow wins at home, so playing a team that’s been playing well on the road might be a challenge.  They might gain more support in the polls and the CFP with the win also, but those are much more stubborn than my ratings are.

Another Heisman candidate now, Michael Penix, Jr., throws under pressure against Oregon St. in Seattle last November. The Huskies won at the last second, 24-21, so it makes sense that the Beavers are given a very good chance to win at home this time despite the Huskies’ undefeated record.

I feel bad for Oregon St. that they lost a close game in Pullman when Wazzu was playing well, but the Cougars have gone down like the Hindenburg since then.

Three of the Honorable Mentions got promoted last week, so keep an eye on those. This week, all but one is in a Power Five conference, so that’s a noticeable change. That one other team is Coastal Carolina, the only one that hasn’t been ranked at some point this season.

My Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Washington	3
3	Florida St.	2
4	Michigan	6
5	Georgia	7
6	Texas	4
7	Alabama	5
8	Penn St.	9
9	Ole Miss	8
10	Oregon	11
11	James Madison	10
12	Missouri	16
13	Oklahoma	13
14	Iowa	19
15	Louisville	14
16	Liberty	17
17	Kansas St.	24
18	LSU	25
19	Oregon St.	21
20	Troy	20
21	Toledo	—
22	Tulane	—
23	Notre Dame	23
24	Utah	18
25	Memphis	—

Out of Top 25: (12) Kansas, (15) Oklahoma St., (22) Tennessee

Honorable mention: Kansas, Oklahoma St., Coastal Carolina, North Carolina, Southern CA

Week 10 Top 25 2023

I mentioned in the last blog that my ratings were delayed this week.  I realized while I was compiling them that not enough credit was being given for playing a series of good opponents.  I’m ok with giving undefeated teams or teams with very good records against mediocre to bad opponents the benefit of the doubt, but I’m not OK with James Madison being #6, Liberty being #11, and Troy being #17.  I think if any of those teams played a random selection of top 25 opponents every week, their record would be about 1-9 or 2-8 right now.  

Adjusted Approach to Top 25 and Possibly to Ratings

In recent years I added what I called weights to “good” games. 

To explain how this came about, my original formula from about 18 years ago was sort of based on a 10-point scale.  If you beat every team you played and those teams beat every team they played apart from you, you’d be between 9 and 10 depending on how good the opponents of the teams you beat were.  This was the entire rating at first, but it later became sort of the first round where I used that number to decide how much credit you got for a win or how much you got subtracted for a loss. 

Realistically the best teams can hope to be around 7 (Ohio St. right now is 6.676).  So what I did with the “weights” was if you played teams better than 5 points (which right now is 14 teams), you’d have a certain number added to your overall rating.  Another 16 teams are between 4.25 and 5, so I would add a smaller number for playing those teams. 

This was regardless of whether you won or lost because you already lost points, so getting some of them back because it’s a good team isn’t a bad thing.  I don’t just want to reward beating them.  I wouldn’t want to reward Texas for beating Alabama and losing to Kansas St. (if the Longhorns had lost over the weekend) where I would not reward another team (like LSU) for beating Missouri and losing to Alabama. I actually think it’s better if you consistently beat teams lower than you and only fall short if you have a very good opponent.

Anyway, I’m starting to question if that’s the best approach.  Wherever I draw the line is ultimately going to be kind of arbitrary. I mentioned the 5-point thing.  Kansas is 4.98.  How much less credit should you get for beating them than you do for beating Louisville at 5.01?

I also didn’t want to go backwards and introduce more subjectivity on my part.  What I decided to do was just to add that initial number to what I have been publishing as the computer ratings.  I could only use a fraction of that number because the other ratings right now tops out at 0.93.  For most top 25 teams, the largest number is about 10x the smallest number, so I though the fairest thing to do was divide the largest number by 10 and then add the two together.

I’m still giving myself the leeway to move teams up to three spots for the top 25.  I might go down to two next week, and I will let you know if I made a change to the published ratings.  I want to see how it plays out.  Sometimes when I make changes, they’re great for one week but I quickly see problems going from one week to the next.  That’s fine for my top 25, but I don’t think it’s good for the computer rating.  It’s good to be able to compare numbers over longer periods of time. 

Big Picture for LSU after Bama Loss

I had a couple other quick thoughts about Saturday’s game. I’ve mentioned LSU’s personnel issues on defense. I also mentioned that the LSU defense was put in a really difficult spot in the fourth quarter when Alabama received the ball at the LSU 25 after an interception only a few seconds on the clock after the previous Alabama offensive drive (3 minutes and 65 yards).

I don’t blame Jayden Daniels for trying to make a play, the ball getting tipped, etc., but giving up a touchdown after the quick turnaround is not proof of a bad defense in that moment. No LSU fan goes on about how bad the 2019 defense was, and no one wanted Dave Aranda to be fired; but LSU gave up 41 points in that game. The Tigers gave up three touchdowns in the fourth quarter and the SHORTEST touchdown drive was 75 yards. I highly doubt that if Joe Burrow threw an interception two plays after one of those drives that the defense would have stopped the Tide from scoring.

“Hot seat” isn’t nearly dramatic enough for Baton Rouge media personalities when they get worked up about something.

So I’m not on the “Fire Matt House” bandwagon that others are on. I know that in hindsight we should have tried to spy more because knowing what we know now, the offense didn’t get close to enough points for the defense that we played. Maybe LSU would have gotten lucky and there would have been a bunch of drops and bad passes. However, we don’t know if more open receivers would have backfired. I don’t hear anyone saying Nick Saban and his defensive coach are incompetent for sacrificing QB rushing yards for more pass coverage. Jayden Daniels ran for more yards than Jalen Milroe, and the former left the game with 13 minutes left.

If both teams had scored in the 40s in an LSU win like four years ago, everyone would be happy. But LSU commentators are going on the radio or on YouTube and saying giving up 40+ to Alabama is never OK regardless.

Even though he’s one of those who I think has been too much of an alarmist about the defense, Matt Moscona pointed out an interesting thing Kelly has been dealing with. You’d think no matter how badly things went off the rails, if you take over a team less than two years after a national championship, you’d have a pretty good recruiting class coming of age. But no, there are only three players left who were recruited in the wake of that championship. The rest of the team is either players Kelly brought in or players that came to play for a team that was going .500. The older players in the subsequent classes who stayed with the team are great. I always have a soft spot for overachiever types, but to think there isn’t a significant talent gap just because we escaped with a win over Alabama last year is silly. Having a better personality and recruiting in a better location than Saban was only getting Coach O so far.

Speaking of which, I want to compare with Saban for a moment. Saban went 26-12 (68.4%) in his first three years at LSU. Kelly is at 69.5% right now. Pretty good for having almost no junior class last year and almost no senior class this year. LSU has a chance to go 4-0, but let’s say they go 3-1 the rest of the way. That would give Kelly a 70.4% mark going into next season. In his last three Division I stops, there was a significant improvement in year three; but even if there isn’t, far too many fans are overreacting.

Granted, LSU had a worse record the two years before they hired Saban than they did the two years before they hired Kelly, but there wasn’t a transfer portal back then. There were good players who had come in after respective 9- and 10-win seasons in 1996 and 1997 who didn’t have a good option other than to stick it out. (By the way, there was only an 11-game regular season back then.). Gerry DiNardo, Saban’s predecessor, won 69.7% over his first three years, so it’s not like Saban blew away anything anyone had seen in recent years right away.

To make some less big-picture comments and get back to the rankings, I think it still makes sense to put Texas ahead of Alabama.  That may change if Oklahoma loses again and LSU wins out.  I’ve mentioned that LSU can get some meaningful positive points in each of the next few weeks.  They’ll definitely be favored in the next two and they haven’t lost to Texas A&M in Baton Rouge since 1994 (the year before DiNardo started), so chances are pretty high they’ll be favored in that one too.  Unfortunately, Georgia St. (who is in between Florida and Texas A&M) has lost two in a row though.  They still may be the second-best team in Georgia.

College Football Playoff Rankings

I think it’s ridiculous that the committee thinks Oregon is the top one-loss team. The Ducks have the 82nd-best schedule. I know they played undefeated Washington, but the Huskies have played the #99 schedule. I don’t even factor in opponents’ opponents’ records as much as many similar blogs do. Some count that equally to opponents’ record because it’s a much narrower range from team to team. Utah, the Ducks’ best win, has a top-50 schedule but two losses.

The big difference comes after Oregon’s marquee win. The highest-rated opponent after that is Colorado, which is #69 overall. Alabama and Penn St. have each beaten four teams who are better than Colorado. Ole Miss, Texas, and Louisville have each beaten five teams who are better than Colorado. I can understand giving some credit for having one close loss to an undefeated team, but it shouldn’t compensate for about every other game being against a team in the top half of the FBS versus about 20% of games being against such teams. Any other team that’s a candidate for the college football playoff would be all but guaranteed to be 8-2 against the Ducks’ schedule, and most would probably beat Utah, my number 20 and the CFP’s #18.

I also don’t think Oregon St., who played no one of note out of conference, is close to the best 2-loss team. I don’t know where they get the idea the Pac-12 is so great. Arizona lost to Mississippi St. and is now half a game out of third place. Notre Dame has suffered a third loss now, but they beat USC (who actually is third place) easily. Wins over Wisconsin and TCU (albeit by lesser teams) have lost their luster.

There isn’t reason to get too annoyed yet, but the committee’s disregard of quality of opponents is something to watch out for going forward.

Comments about My Top 25

I think Purdue is better than their record, but Michigan hasn’t added as many points per week as other major-conference teams do on average.  Even with USC’s struggles, they’re worth a lot more than Purdue.  Alabama and Texas both added high-quality wins as well.  Texas was a lot closer to losing at the end, but I don’t factor that in.  

Georgia and Michigan can each get a good number of points next week though.  Penn St. (who is playing Michigan) and Ole Miss (who is playing Georgia) are right behind them, but neither the Nittany Lions (Rutgers and Michigan St.) nor the Rebels (UL-Monroe and Mississippi St.) have nearly as many potential points to gain in the last two weeks of the season as the Bulldogs (Tennessee and Georgia Tech) and Wolverines (Maryland and Ohio St.) do.

The last time Ole Miss played Georgia, Rebel QB Chad Kelly led the team to a 45-0 lead in Oxford in 2016. Bulldog QB Jacob Eason (right) was only able to complete 44% of his passing attempts and failed to throw a touchdown. Somehow the Bulldogs’ long-awaited chance at revenge is not the SEC game of the week. I wish Ole Miss would go back to those uniforms. by the way.

So if you want to see an SEC team in the playoff, you need to be for Georgia (even if you’d rather see Alabama).  If you want to see a Big Ten team, you need to cheer for Michigan (even if you’d rather see Ohio St.).  I’m not saying the CFP committee always agrees with me, but high-quality wins are usually important to them in the end.  Even if two or three one-loss teams make it, I doubt either one will be Penn St. or Ole Miss.

The order of Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. is mostly explained by what I said earlier about bad losses.

I liked not having to drop Missouri, Kansas St., and LSU too far.  Part of that is due to Tulane and Toledo playing fairly weak opponents (even though Tulane barely won again). Losses by USC and UCLA helped too. 

USC almost stayed in the top 25 given that the Washington loss didn’t hurt much, but there is only so much room for 3-loss teams.  The rest of the honorable mentions are from outside of the major conferences.

They didn’t make the honorable mentions, but Duke, Arizona, North Carolina St., and U. Miami are the other major-conference three-loss teams in the top 40.  North Carolina still only has two losses but has a relatively low schedule strength.  It’s interesting how many ACC teams are in the 30s.  Clemson (despite four losses) has a good chance of joining that group in the next few weeks.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Florida St.	2
3	Washington	6
4	Texas	4
5	Alabama	5
6	Michigan	3
7	Georgia	10
8	Ole Miss	7
9	Penn St.	8
10	James Madison	9
11	Oregon	13
12	Kansas	19
13	Oklahoma	11
14	Louisville	20
15	Oklahoma St.	24
16	Missouri	15
17	Liberty	12
18	Utah	16
19	Iowa	17
20	Troy	—
21	Oregon St.	25
22	Tennessee	—
23	Notre Dame	14
24	Kansas St.	23
25	LSU	22

Out of Top 25: (18) Southern CA, (21) Air Force

Honorable mention: Tulane, Southern CA, Toledo, Memphis, Fresno St.

LSU/Alabama: The Morning After

I went on a short overnight trip to see a friend this weekend, and I got back just in time to watch Alabama score 21 unanswered points and just in time to spend 4 hours trying to get my computer to work. Due to the trip, I hadn’t done any of the steps I usually do in advance, such as entering in the bye weeks and the weekday games.  That’s why the computer ratings were delayed until later.  Also, I wanted to write this and get in all the key points while the game (and some of the pregame information) was fresh in my mind. Given that I still have a lot of work to do with the ratings, I’m not going to spend time looking for more than one picture.

Proper Perspective and Looking at the Bright Side

I can assure you the delay wasn’t because I was overcome with grief over LSU.  I’m actually fairly unfazed.  I’m far less upset or frustrated than I was after the other two losses this year.

You don’t have a 28-21 lead in the third quarter of a game like this if you’re just average and don’t belong on the field with these guys. According to Saban and all the Alabama commentators I heard, this was the healthiest Alabama has been all year, and I definitely think it was the most complete game by their offense all year. The final score being a loss by 14, especially given how it ended, doesn’t mean we played like a worse team than Arkansas, who lost by 3, or Texas A&M, who lost by 6. It doesn’t mean we’re equivalent to South Florida, who also lost by 14. Those teams didn’t get Bama’s best shot, which is what LSU typically gets after the Tide has all offseason, 8 games, and a bye week to figure it out.

No matter who we could have theoretically hired in late 2021—Nick Saban, Bill Belichik, Andy Reid, Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, whoever you can name who’s still alive—I would not have expected that person to win the SEC West in year one and have the inside track to win the West after the Alabama game in year two.  (Not to mention Jimbo Fisher, Billy Napier, or Lincoln Riley, the people some wanted to hire.) Maybe one of those guys doesn’t go 1-4 against the combination of Florida St., Ole Miss, and Texas A&M so far; but I wouldn’t have expected a single one of them to follow last year’s West championship with putting LSU where they would have been with two conference games left this year.  

One bit of good news is chances are about 99/100 that as of next week we will be able to say for the foreseeable future “Ole Miss never won the SEC West.” Technically, the SEC regards losers of the tiebreaker to be “co-champions,” but I don’t have to agree. I think the pro sports have the right interpretation of this. The point of a tie-breaker is not to have a tie anymore, so even if you have the same record as the division champion, you’re not the division champion if you’re not the team that advances with that designation. So for SEC divisions, if you lost a tie-breaker and don’t get to go to Atlanta, you shouldn’t be called the divisional champion. The same should apply to Alabama last year or the Alabama team who lost the “Kick Six” game, by the way. So if someone corrects you and says, “actually we were the champions that one time, we just didn’t go to Atlanta,” tell them you don’t believe in participation trophies.

Also, we now have a good chance (less good if Daniels is out, but maybe Nussmeier will finally prove he can be reliable) to finish the season on a four-game winning streak including the bowl. That would not be the case if Georgia were on the docket. Even though in January we won possibly the biggest blowout ever in a bowl game, I still had a bit of a bad taste in my mouth at the end of last season because of the SEC Championship Game. It was some consolation that Georgia eventually became the national champions with a dominating game though.

The Final Score was One of Many Foreseeable Results

In the preview, I mentioned that Alabama had scored 40 against Mississippi St. and I wasn’t sure what their upper limit was if they weren’t up 31-13 at the half as they were against the Bulldogs, but it was somewhere above 40.  So it wasn’t an unforeseeable event that they scored just two more points than they had against Mississippi St. since not only were they not up at halftime, they were behind before they even saw the ball in the second half.  The maximum was at least 48 though, because their kicker usually makes kicks of less than 50 yards, and he missed two.

I can’t fully address why the offense fell just short of what I thought their minimum point output would be without addressing what happened to Daniels, so excuse the upcoming rant.

When LSU won last year, I mentioned the referees are always on Alabama’s side in these games.  It was the same thing this year.  There was a horse collar on Jayden that they didn’t call (seemingly in the hopes that LSU wouldn’t score a touchdown at the end of the first half), and LSU scored anyway.  But I think it gave Alabama permission to keep coming for him and there wouldn’t be any potentially game-altering consequences.  Then even when they knock him out of the game, they don’t call targeting or even stop the game to review targeting.  If launching at the quarterback so that the crown of your helmet hits him in the chin after he releases the ball isn’t targeting, they need to abolish the targeting rule entirely.  95-99% of the players ejected for targeting did something less deliberate and less egregious.   

I thought the time where you can just throw the kitchen sink at a quarterback with the apparent attempt to injure him was gone, but I guess not when you have SEC officials and Alabama is involved.  There was a scene in Mighty Ducks 2 where a player for Iceland (which is the villain team of the movie) goes to the penalty box and says, “Two minutes?  Well worth it.”  15 yards when you’re still in LSU territory and don’t lose one of your own players was well worth knocking Daniels out of the game. 

If this wasn’t targeting, the word has no meaning other than “play the officials don’t like.”

Anyway, even if the officials had done nothing wrong and Alabama were treated fairly with those calls, my number of 31 as a minimum was assuming Daniels didn’t get hurt with over 20% of the game left to play.  I didn’t think LSU would score over 40 regardless, but they would have had at least a chance to do that, so I think my belief that LSU would score in the 30s was well-founded.  Also, LSU was in field goal position on two different occasions without coming away with points.  One field goal attempt was missed, and the other opportunity was toward the end of the game when a field goal wouldn’t have given the Tigers an improved chance of victory.  The latter was one of two times that LSU turned the ball over on downs. 

Why Do We Have This Defense Anyway?

To go back to the coaching staff, some people might still be asking how coaches who are as well-paid as Brian Kelly and Matt House allowed such a bad defense in the first place that we have to worry about whether the opponent will score more or less than 40 points and whether we can keep up with them even with one of our best offenses in history. 

Last season, we brought in a few stop-gap transfers because there was no choice given how depleted the roster was by mismanagement by Coach O and the departure of players who were not pleased with going .500 (and some other shenanigans) over the previous two seasons.  This season we tried to do the same, and it just didn’t work out at all.  I don’t know what Denver Harris (Texas A&M transfer) and Deuce Chestnut (Syracuse) did wrong, but they haven’t been participating with the teams in months.  They still have scholarships at LSU, but we aren’t told anything official beyond that. One of the transfers last year actually had two years of eligibility and was expected to be the leader of the secondary.  His name is Greg Brooks, Jr., and he’s currently battling brain cancer.  We had brought in another transfer (J.K. Johnson from Ohio St.) who was hurt in the offseason.  In addition to this, there was a fluke injury to Zy Alexander right before the starters left the game against Army.

I know it doesn’t benefit teams and coaches to whine about things like this and cite it as a reason for failures, and some people accept the standard “next man up” answer as fact because it’s so reinforced; but sometimes it’s just not the reality.  You can’t take over a roster that was barely able to field a team for the Texas Bowl after the 2021 season and bring into your second season not only one of the best and most experienced offenses we’ve ever had BUT ALSO a defense so deep with competent players that they don’t give up multiple touchdowns a half to good teams after you lose 5 players in the secondary from what you had planned on going into the year. 

In the future, if Kelly keeps recruiting well, we will have four or more classes of players that we have been able to develop within the system and possibly some transfers that we can give a chance to prove themselves.  But every transfer isn’t someone just waiting to be great like Joe Burrow; some are misfits in one program and continue to be misfits in the next.

Alabama Played Close to Their Potential and LSU Did Not

Now, why was I saying people were bringing up the injuries too much before the game?  For one thing, that was already factored into my point that Alabama could get their highest point total in an SEC game against LSU.  For another thing, we had two opportunities (3^rd and 3 from the Alabama 33 and 3^rd and 11 from the LSU 33) to shut Alabama out in the second quarter.  If we do that, we would have been on pace to hold Alabama to 28, which is what I thought was the minimum (again, factoring in the players we did have suited up and ready). 

None of this is to say Alabama didn’t play better than LSU did, especially in the latter part of the third quarter.  The Tide was the overwhelming favorite to win before the hit on Daniels.  Even if he had two fourth-quarter touchdown drives in him, who’s to say Alabama makes the same calls on the second-to-last drive?  Maybe they’re more aggressive and this sets up an easier field goal attempt or a touchdown.  Even if you give LSU 14 more points, that only forces a tie.  Alabama may have had time to get another field goal attempt before time expired.  I also think they more likely than not would have won in an overtime.

I maintain that the players on both sides of the ball for LSU had the talent and training to play a lot better than they did. 

One thing I didn’t mention was the interception.  That alone could have put both teams in the 30s.  It was one of the rare stops of LSU up to that point as well as setting up a 25-yard Alabama touchdown drive.  Daniels has the ability to avoid short-yardage interceptions like that.  It’s one thing if you take a shot downfield and it ends up being like a punt, which I think was the case for the last interception he threw; but it’s quite another if the other team takes over the ball when they’re already in field goal position.  He’s also gone several games at a time with no interceptions.  I think he played most of last season before he threw one.

There was also a timing issue with some of the receivers.  I’m not sure exactly what the cause was.  This seemed to have been the problem when Daniels missed Nabers on 4^th and 1 from the Alabama 42 in the first quarter, for instance.  That’s another play that could have changed the complexion of the game. 

I also wonder if there might have been more opportunities for him to run.  If you’re averaging 14.8 yards per run on 11 attempts, it seems you’d try to keep doing it.  Maybe he didn’t want there to be more uncalled penalties against him though.

In short, a handful of plays could have easily gone differently and drastically affected the score, and I can’t think of any major skill player on the team who had a great day.  Daniels had a great first 34 minutes (at that time LSU had 28 points and was on pace for 49 for the game) where he was able to compensate for most of the miscues; but in the next two drives before the injury, he completed two passes for a total of just 8 yards and threw the interception.

LSU/Alabama Clarifications and Preview

I’m not going to tell you who’s going to win the LSU-Alabama game or whether Alabama is likely to beat the spread.  There are plenty of people to do that.  However, there are some things some of those supposed experts have been getting wrong that I’d like to correct.

LSU did suffer injuries, but…

LSU is only down one member of the secondary who has played in the last month or so, Zy Alexander.  Some people are saying it’s four or five players.  It is that many cumulative going back to the offseason, but the Tigers struggled more when some of those players were playing than they are now.  So the idea that LSU is already terrible and now they’re likely getting a lot worse due to a slew of injuries that some people who are picking Alabama keep promulgating isn’t quite accurate. 

The Tigers will also miss lineman Mekhi Wingo, but that absence is the result of surgery for a nagging injury that had kept him from playing at full strength all season, and LSU’s front seven has been pretty decent (with some depth) since they settled on the 4-3 formation. Jordan Jefferson (see the next section if you’re confused) has been the standout this season, not Wingo.

Alabama is the healthier team, so if people just make that point and leave it at that, they’re not misleading you.

No College Starting QB Has Beaten Saban 2 in a Row Since…

There was report, I think circulated by ESPN, that last starting college quarterback to beat Nick Saban two years in a row was Drew Brees.  Brees even shared it on Twitter.  That would be a cute factoid, if it were true, especially given that Saban passed on a chance to bring Brees to Miami.  It was actually Rex Grossman, who easily beat the Tigers in both 2000 and 2001 as the Florida QB.  Brees might have been the last one who played the full game, but letting a backup play at some point doesn’t change who the starter was.  At any rate, it’s been over 20 years, so it would still be quite an accomplishment for Jayden Daniels.

Fun fact: This is not Rex Grossman.

Some LSU fans have mentioned Jordan Jefferson, the former LSU quarterback from 10-15 years ago (and older brother of Justin Jefferson), not the current defensive lineman. Jefferson didn’t start in 2011, so he doesn’t count; although he did help win the game… to the extent anyone on the offense deserves credit when only six points are scored in regulation.

Homefield Advantage?

There are a couple of interesting notes about the 2019 LSU team.  No SEC team has won in Tuscaloosa since then.  Obviously, I had to add the *SEC* qualifier because Texas won there this season.  I also wanted to mention that Alabama was favored by more points in that game than there are in this game.  I believe this is the fifteenth straight game in which Alabama has been favored against LSU, and this might be the smallest point spread over that time.  Also, the 2021 LSU team (our last trip there) was a relatively rare team who made it close in Tuscaloosa despite it being the first LSU team with a losing final record since 1999. 

I haven’t done anything with updating my rivalry blogs this year, but it has been a weird pattern over the years that LSU has typically done better at Alabama than they do against the Tide at home.  Neither record is great of course.  However, before 2019, LSU had lost three in a row in Tuscaloosa by at least 14 points in each game.  So it seemed like we were even losing that silver lining.

Joe Burrow takes off for a 19-yard run in Tuscaloosa on November 9, 2019. In the last two LSU wins over Alabama, Tiger QBs accounted for 734 combined yards. The 2019 win was LSU’s first over the Tide in 8 years. The 2022 win was LSU’s first home win over the Tide in 12 years.

A third consecutive strong showing in Tuscaloosa (and a fourth strong showing in five years overall against Alabama) would be a good sign even if it’s a loss.  I’m not looking for moral victories in advance (of course I was very happy about the actual victories in 2019 and 2022), but obviously you have a better chance to win games against a given team or in a given location if you have a habit of at least keeping such games close.  I think there is a psychological impact when you have a series of disappointing results in a given situation.  Even though there weren’t too many players in common, I think that 2019 team had something to do with the confidence with which LSU played last year (as well as 2021), and obviously I hope that continues. It’s also good to look for signs of an improving program (at least relative to Alabama, in this case) in the bigger picture.

Will the team who scored 10 points in 59 minutes against South Florida outscore the team who averages 44 points per game?

The fact that my answer is “quite possibly” means I’m not blowing off all criticisms of LSU’s defense or ignoring the quality of Alabama’s. It’s a little tongue in cheek because no one is actually asking this question, but similar silly questions are being asked to suggest LSU will lose. (By the way, the 44-point average does not count the Grambling game.)

Like I said earlier, I’m not going to tell you where to put your money if you’re into gambling, but I do want to go over some things to look for whether it’s out of financial interest or not. 

To pick up where I left off about the injuries, there are certainly some question marks on the LSU defense, don’t get me wrong; but the same is true of the Alabama offense especially.  I don’t understand how it’s OK to pretend all their ills are solved because their last half of football went well, but LSU’s defense is still what it was against Ole Miss (or worse), and LSU’s offense is still what it was against Florida St.  LSU was not playing a terrific Army team, but you can’t do better than a shutout as far as points are concerned.  They looked significantly better than they did against Grambling, and Army would probably blow out Grambling.

Anyway, in response to the Alabama predicters and supporters picking on the Florida St. and Ole Miss games, we could just as easily pretend Alabama’s offense is just as bad as it was against South Florida (who gave up more points to Florida A&M than they did to the Tide) and Alabama’s defense is just as bad as it was against Texas.  Another thing I realized was before the final drive that ended in a touchdown with 33 seconds left against the Bulls, Alabama had had more possessions (11) than points (10).

I don’t think any Alabama fan would have taken you seriously if you told him that Daniels would account for 277 yards in last year’s game after he only accounted for 139 against Auburn the month before, so I don’t think this fan habit of trying to cherry-pick stats from an earlier game to tell you what to expect in the next game is very reliable.  But to the extent it is, it can go both ways.

It’s true that LSU can’t rely on the defense to show up strong, especially not in the secondary.  LSU doesn’t have to have a terrific secondary for there to be some stops though.  Even though the Ole Miss game was historically bad defensively, LSU still got stops when there were long-yardage situations on second and third down.  Alabama has had a problem throughout the season in putting themselves in bad down-and-distance situations through sacks and penalties.

The Tide has succeeded on some deep shots, but I don’t think they’ve faced an offense (other than possibly Texas) that really penalized them for low-scoring halves like I think LSU can.  Bama does keep teams to relatively low scores, but LSU has been scoring in the upper 40s even in conference games.  Alabama has typically been allowing scores in the low 20s. 

I think LSU will likely score somewhere in the 30s, but that could mean LSU wins 38-24 or scores 31 and loses.  I’m not sure what Alabama’s upper limit is; but they did get up to 40 against Mississippi St., and I’m sure they weren’t desperate to score on every drive after they led 31-10 at the half.

If Alabama finds that kind of offense again and doesn’t let up, LSU could also conceivably lose by a couple of touchdowns.  I think LSU winning by a couple of touchdowns is slightly more likely, especially if they’re able to get up into the 40s and it doesn’t make strategic sense for Alabama to try to get points from their kicker.  LSU has a capable but less consistent kicker; so, if it’s a closer game, that could be an advantage for the Tide.

The Steele Curtain

Some Alabama fans have brought this up, and it’s legitimate enough to address it.  By far the best game plan against Joe Burrow was implemented by Kevin Steele when he was the coach of Auburn in 2019 and held LSU to 23 points, but there isn’t some magic that takes place just because the uniforms are the same.  Obviously, he can’t make his defenses consistently play that well, because this year’s Tennessee, Arkansas, and Texas A&M aren’t anywhere near the 2019 LSU team and all of them also scored in the low 20s against a Kevin Steele defense.  I think that’s a bit more relevant. 

Kevin Steele and Ed Orgeron at their introductory press conference before the 2015 season. 2015 was one of only two seasons since 2011 that Steele coached somewhere other than Auburn or Alabama.

Steele might be a genius in stopping what Coach O called “da Joe Brady offense,” but that’s not what Mike Denbrock runs.  This is much more of a ball-control offense than LSU was in 2019.  Even Saban has compared it to the triple option (2/3 of which involve a back taking the ball downfield).  Burrow could run when needed (see the picture above), but he didn’t run with the same ease as Daniels.  Clyde Edwards-Hellaire came through in the Auburn game I mentioned, but he had only averaged 78 yards per game before that even though LSU was often trying to run out the clock on large leads.  Logan Diggs has averaged 107 yards per game over the last four SEC games, so I don’t think it’s as tempting to see what LSU can do with runs and short passes.

Daniels doesn’t check down as much to the tight end Mason Taylor as last year (for obvious reasons), but he’s still there if Steele focuses on stopping long passes as he did in 2019.  TE Thad Moss had 7 receptions in 2019.  If Daniels throws it to Taylor that many times, he may go for 100 yards.  Also, Steele obviously doesn’t control the offense.  The boom-and-bust offense that Alabama runs now isn’t likely to minimize the LSU possessions as the Bo Nix Auburn offense did in 2019.

That’s all I have to say really about things to look for as far as X’s and O’s, but I did come across some other items worth addressing.

Common Opponent and Why Alabama is Favored

I’m sorry if what I’ve covered is not too illuminating about who’s going to win, but we could have made similar competing arguments last year (although the teams were more balanced), and the game went to overtime.  The reason the line is closer this time is that there wasn’t a recent common opponent that made Alabama look a lot better.  Last year, Alabama had lost to Tennessee by 3 on the road, and LSU had lost to Tennessee by 27 at home.  Both games were within the previous month.

There is a common opponent this season that Bama fans have brought up, and that’s Ole Miss.  One difference is both teams played the Rebels in September rather than October.  Alabama only beat them by 14, and LSU-Ole Miss came down to the final play (similarly to how Alabama-Tennessee ended last season, even though Ole Miss won by a couple more points).  It is a good point total if you add the two margins of victory together, but we aren’t talking about a close game versus a blowout.  Also, rather than homefield advantage magnifying the difference between Alabama and LSU vis-à-vis the common opponent, it’s a mitigating factor this year.  If they were focused on the common opponent, the gamblers this year would have Alabama favored by a lot more than 3 points, which is essentially just the home advantage (although maybe that’s only part of it in this case).  They’re basically telling us that what they’ve seen from these two teams is close to dead even in the aggregate. 

Another reason one might lean toward Alabama is they are the more proven team even if there weren’t one fewer loss.  They’ve played three teams that were in the top 20 at the time they played them and have won the last two (2-1 overall).  In between those two, they won a game in College Station (where LSU has lost three games in a row, by the way). LSU may finish with a better schedule, but the Tigers have already played their FCS opponent and have already played Auburn, which for now is not as good as Texas A&M. LSU is 0-2 against top 20 teams, although Missouri was #21 (AP; #22 Coaches) and has since improved to #12 (CFP).  These things do not tell us who will win matchups on the field, but there is something to be said for being tested.

SEC West Implications

I don’t want to imply that LSU is going to win this game not to mention win out, so I’ll start with saying if you’re an Alabama fan, you can book your tickets (or at least your hotel room) to Atlanta the second the game ends if they win. Alabama likely wouldn’t technically clinch though because theoretically Ole Miss can represent the West if the Rebels win out AND Alabama loses to Kentucky and Auburn.

But I did want to mention one other factual thing a lot of people are getting wrong.  LSU is still the favorite to win the West if they do win out even if Ole Miss beats Georgia.  Yes, Ole Miss would win a head-to-head tiebreaker, but head-to-head means it’s just those two teams.  I suspect Alabama will beat Kentucky and Auburn, so that would make it a three-way tie with all teams 1-1 against the other two.

I guess it would be fitting for the last SEC West title race to come down to games like… Missouri vs. Tennessee on November 11 in Columbia. The Volunteers won by 6 touchdowns in Knoxville last season; but their point total dropped by over 30 against Alabama from last season, so I wouldn’t look for a similar score this year against Mizzou.

I have a standalone blog ready if Ole Miss does beat Georgia (and no other relevant upsets take place) that will tell you everything you need to know, but for now just know a three-way tie (meaning LSU beats Alabama and no one else beats LSU, Alabama, or Ole Miss the rest of the season) will come down to whose SEC East opponents do best.  Ole Miss has already played Vanderbilt and will play Georgia; LSU has already played Missouri and will play Florida; and Alabama has already played Tennessee and will play Kentucky.  LSU’s opponents have the best combined record at the moment.

Week 9 Top 25 2023

Welcome New Readers

Since I’ve been on WordPress, I’ve always gotten a big boost in readers for the LSU-Alabama weekend, but the last couple of weeks have been the best non-Alabama weeks over the past two seasons. I wasn’t able to look at weekly stats from before that, but given that I wasn’t really committed to this in 2020 and 2021 and LSU was pretty irrelevant anyway (I didn’t even bother to say much about the respective Alabama games, although 2021 was close), I doubt any weeks in those years were better.

It’s quite possible 2019 had better weeks, but I’m sure that was more Joe Burrow’s doing than mine. I’ve also done a lot less to garner views than I did in prior years. I guess I’ve gotten more serious about work and health and things like that, and I also spend more time just relaxing.

At any rate, I wanted to welcome anyone who is new to my page. I’ve been a pretty avid LSU football blogger (during the season anyway) since the 2005 season, which happened to be when Les Miles came to Baton Rouge. My ranking system was developed from 2003 to 2005 and improved in a couple of ways since then, but I only have an online archive going back to my 2008 rankings. I don’t mind that because they became a little more sophisticated that year (qualifying for Massey’s comparison site) anyway. I’ve done a personal ranking since 1995, but to my knowledge I haven’t published anything I wrote before 2006.

Although I am an LSU fan, I’m very strict about not letting my personal views affect my computer ratings. In fact, at this moment, on my list LSU is as lower as or lower than they are on any other ratings list that Massey indices. This is not to be confused with top 25 rankings blogs like the one below that deviate less and less from the computer ratings as the season progresses.

Comments about CFP Rankings

I made an unexpected trip to the dentist on Tuesday, so I didn’t have the time to post this that I originally thought I would have. The delay does give me the occasion to comment on the first College Football Playoff rankings. Obviously, I agree with #1; but if you’re disregarding last year and basing the order of the top four solely based on quality of this year’s wins, there is no logical way to place Florida St. below Michigan and Georgia. If you are basing it on prior years and think Georgia is close to #1, why not keep them #1 until they lose, especially since that could be any week as the Bulldogs get into the difficult portion of their schedule (following the win over Florida with games against Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech in consecutive weeks).

What if I told you there is an SEC game this weekend that will likely decide the division wherein the one-loss team is trying to avenge last season’s close loss (which took place after giving up two late touchdowns) and that I’m not talking about the SEC West?

I don’t see the argument for Michigan to be ahead of the Seminoles at all. The last time we saw them before this season they were losing to TCU in the semifinal. I don’t think that gives you the right to rest on your semifinal-loser laurels for the next 10 months. Is it purely a prediction of where they think the teams will end up? When did we ask this committee to prognosticate like that? I thought they were supposed to evaluate how good the respective teams are currently this year.

Comments about My Top 25

I was not surprised by too much that happened over the weekend, although I wouldn’t have bet on both Arizona teams winning.  They had both been on the wrong side of some close games before, so it’s not like I thought either team was incapable.  Perhaps Oregon St. and Washington St. just don’t have the depth and talent (and possibly not the coaching either) to keep their early-season success going.  I would have laughed if USC had lost again, but one win and one loss in the last two weeks is probably the deserved outcome.

I feel somewhat vindicated that Ohio St. nearly became the computer #1 after I had to assist them the past few weeks.  Ohio St. has a much better remaining schedule.  Florida St. still plays Pittsburgh, who only has one FBS win, and North Alabama, a subpar FCS team.  Of course, Ohio St. still plays Michigan, who is much better than anyone the Seminoles will play.

I didn’t predict Kansas to beat Oklahoma per se, but I didn’t think the Sooners would finish undefeated, and a road game against a team that I had ranked a couple of weeks ago isn’t the most surprising one for the Sooners to have lost.  Oklahoma may also struggle to beat Kansas St. and/or Oklahoma St., both of whom have re-entered the top 25.

I know some people think if Texas and Oklahoma each have exactly one loss, Oklahoma should automatically be higher; but I strongly disagree.  Texas has a much better strength of schedule given the game against Alabama (Rice and Wyoming aren’t terrible either), and the Longhorns also beat Kansas

Another interesting side effect of the upset is that now there are five former Big 8 teams (Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas St., and Oklahoma St.) in the top 25.  One of the others, Colorado, was ranked earlier in the year and is still in the top 60.  The other two, Nebraska and Iowa St., are both in the top 45.  When Oklahoma plays Missouri next year, it will be the first SEC game between two former Big 8 teams.  Colorado will rejoin the Big XII, where four other former Big 8 teams will play next season.  Nebraska will remain in the Big Ten.

Kansas RB Devin Neal dives for a touchdown against old Big 8 (and Big 6 and Big 7) rivals Oklahoma on Saturday in Lawrence, Kan. The Big 8 conference broke up in 1996, and it had almost been that long since Kansas had beaten Oklahoma. Neal ran for 112 yards in the Jayhawks’ 38-33 upset win.

As I anticipated last week, I didn’t do any subjective ranking to factor in.  I did move teams up to three spots.  I was a little bit liberal about what that means though.  For instance, Troy, Oregon St., LSU, and UCLA were all between 0.350 and 0.360, so I considered that a tie for 25^th.  (0.01 is a typical gap between consecutive teams after the top 10, where many gaps are even larger.)  That’s how I got LSU as high as they are.  I’m going to elaborate just for illustrative purposes, but if you’re not interested in a detailed breakdown, skip the next three paragraphs.

I am more lenient toward teams who play in more difficult conferences and who have more understandable losses anyway.  Part of the reason is I’m less concerned about such teams getting away with anything.  LSU will either lose to Alabama and likely fall out (continuing the current trajectory anyway), or they’ll beat Alabama and this will avoid the volatility of being 16^th one week, unranked the next, and being back in the top 20 (or maybe even in the top 15) the week after that.

One of LSU’s losses was two months ago to a team that is still undefeated in relatively hostile territory (not a true road game but close), and the other was on the road and was just a matter of which team was able to score last in the last two minutes. 

I think it was right to have the gap between Oregon St. and LSU since the two teams who beat the Beavers have seven combined losses to the one combined loss by the two teams who beat LSU.  LSU’s best win Missouri and Oregon St.’s best win Utah are similar, but I give the edge to Missouri (who still only has one loss…for now). 

Falling 11 spots for a loss to a team with a winning record seems harsh enough though, so I was not inclined to let Oregon St. fall out of the top 25 completely.  Also, teams like Troy and Tulane (the other candidates for top 25 other than UCLA, whom the Beavers beat and who is lacking in quality wins) aren’t going to be seriously tested in the future like Oregon St. will be.  Three of the four remaining opponents for the Beavers (Colorado, Washington and Oregon) are more highly rated than any team that remains on Tulane’s schedule, for instance.  Only one of Troy’s upcoming opponents (Louisiana-Lafayette) is higher-rated than Colorado, and it’s not by much.  (All of LSU’s remaining opponents are better than all of the remaining opponents for either Troy {who already played Georgia St.} or Tulane.)

I mentioned UCLA in the last paragraph.  It was a little weird to take them out after getting their second-best win, but every previous Pac-12 opponent (Utah, Washington St., Oregon St., and Stanford) lost.  Also, they were 28^th, so the only way to rank them would have been to remove Oregon St., which did not make sense.

Wisconsin and Minnesota were in a virtual tie in the computer, so I included them both in the “honorable mention” list.  That list is usually only five teams, but I made an exception.  I believe Toledo is the first MAC team on the list this season.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Florida St.	2
3	Michigan	4
4	Texas	5
5	Alabama	6
6	Washington	8
7	Ole Miss	7
8	Penn St.	10
9	James Madison	13
10	Georgia	12
11	Oklahoma	3
12	Liberty	20
13	Oregon	17
14	Notre Dame	15
15	Missouri	11
16	Utah	9
17	Iowa	18
18	Southern CA	23
19	Kansas	—
20	Louisville	22
21	Air Force	24
22	LSU	16
23	Kansas St.	—
24	Oklahoma St.	—
25	Oregon St.	14

Out of Top 25: (19), North Carolina, (21) Wisconsin, (25) UCLA

Honorable mention: Troy, Tulane, UCLA, Toledo, Wisconsin, Minnesota

Week 7 Top 25 2023

I’m still moving toward my completely objective top 25; but if you just want to know what the computer says, go here.  Last week, it was less than 1/3 objective.  Today, it’s roughly half.  The initial list I made was 60% objective, but I still allowed myself to move teams by up to 5 spots after that.  The only exception was Ohio St., whom I moved six spots.  There is a good chance the Buckeyes will be near #1 on their own merit next week anyway (if they beat Penn St. of course).

This might be the last week I can have Georgia ahead of all the one-loss teams though.  Texas has the #3 schedule, and Georgia has one of the worst in FBS.  Adding a bye week doesn’t help.  The Bulldogs have a gauntlet after that (three games against ranked teams, one on the road, and two other good teams away from home), so they’re not pulling the wool over anyone’s eyes to get back to the Playoff; but this is meant to be a snapshot.  They should not be in the top four or even the top eight if the season ended now.  Not only was Vanderbilt a weak opponent, but all of the Bulldogs’ best three opponents so far (Kentucky, South Carolina, and Auburn) lost to teams the Bulldogs have not yet played or will not play.

Just like last week though, most teams did not move more than a couple of spots from the improvised formula.  There may still be some volatility in the coming weeks because for many teams next week’s result will still make up 1/6 of their FBS opponents, so it counts for about twice as much as a game does at the end of the year.  Also, I’m going to continue to give myself less power to smooth out any transitions up or down the rankings.

The top 9 should make a lot of sense based on last week.

Iowa is exactly where the formula put them.  If Penn St. loses, the Hawkeyes may fall a spot or two, but I think this is fair for right now.  North Carolina is undefeated and has played a significantly better schedule than Georgia has, so I thought that spot was good for them.

Louisville followed up on the win over Notre Dame with a loss to Pitt, so this allowed LSU to move ahead of the Irish despite having a much less impressive win.  The only loss by either of the two teams who beat LSU was to Alabama, so LSU’s two losses look much more excusable right now.  Pitt already had four losses and had no FBS wins going into last week.  They had a significant drop-off from last season.  Former Pitt (and USC) quarterback Kedon Slovis going to BYU didn’t seem to do either side any good.

Michael Penix, Jr., of Washington prepares to attempt a pass against the Oregon Ducks in Seattle on Saturday. While both teams did have some success on the ground, the anticipated quarterback battle largely delivered. Although Penix threw for fewer yards and a lower completion percentage and threw the game’s only interception, he made up for it by throwing for two more touchdowns and about half a yard more per attempt than Oregon’s Bo Nix threw.

Oregon is still a good team despite the setback in Seattle.  Their loss is similarly excusable to LSU’s losses, but there just isn’t a quality win like LSU and Notre Dame have.  Missouri also only has one loss, but obviously I think hosting LSU is a step down from traveling to Washington right now.

Five of the remaining nine teams in my top 25 are in the Pac-12.  It took me a while to sort them.  I think it’s easier to explain in reverse order.  Despite two losses in a row, Washington St. deserved to stay ranked because they beat Wisconsin, the team I would otherwise have put #25.  Colorado St. isn’t bad for a second-best out-of-conference win either.   

I don’t know why Wazzu lost to Arizona so badly, but margin of victory (or loss in this case) isn’t a big concern for me going forward.  The week before, the Cougars lost to UCLA, so I put the Bruins higher.  Oregon St. beat UCLA, and I think they only ended up losing to Washington St. because the game was in Pullman.  Also, it’s a singular loss.  The Beavers also beat Utah, so I think putting them between Washington St. and Utah made sense.

USC lost, but it was out of conference to Notre Dame, so I don’t have a problem with leaving the Trojans ahead of Oregon St., UCLA, and Washington St.  You could argue about Utah, but it helps that the Utes beat Florida, whom I have #32 right now.  Baylor isn’t having the best season, but going to Waco is still a strong second-best out-of-conference game.  I don’t think USC has beaten anyone nearly as good as Florida.  The Utes are 1-1 against the rest of the top 25 (win over UCLA, loss to Oregon St… another reason the Beavers are ahead of the Bruins), which is of course better than 0-1.

I squeezed Duke ahead of USC because they played Notre Dame closer and also because Clemson is creeping their way back toward the top 25 like Florida is.

I wasn’t blown away by the fact that Tennessee beat Texas A&M at home, but I like the way that they were able to grind out a low-scoring win and never seemed panicky or particularly at risk of losing.  There were times last year when the Volunteers were out of their element when a defense was able to slow them down.  I’m seeing some maturity and consistency that I’m not seeing from teams that are lower; and I mentioned Florida vis-a-vis Utah, so I’m more forgiving of that loss than the combinations of two losses below or the singular loss to Pitt.

I moved James Madison as far down as I could, so I don’t think the Dukes would beat the Volunteers on a neutral field right now; but this is a normal consequence of the computer formula.  I could be wrong though.  I would have sworn all last year that Tulane wouldn’t have beaten USC on a neutral field, for instance.  I have Tulane #31, by the way, between the five honorable mentions and Florida.  Kansas St. is right after Florida, which explains in part why Missouri is still as high as they are.  Kentucky isn’t a bad #2 win for a one-loss team either.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Ohio St.	1
2	Oklahoma	3
3	Michigan	2
4	Florida St.	5
5	Washington	8
6	Penn St.	6
7	Georgia	4
8	Texas	7
9	Alabama	9
10	N Carolina	11
11	Iowa	19
12	Ole Miss	13
13	LSU	18
14	Notre Dame	15
15	Oregon	10
16	Missouri	25
17	Utah	17
18	Duke	21
19	Southern CA	14
20	Oregon St.	23
21	James Madison	—
22	Tennessee	—
23	Louisville	12
24	UCLA	22
25	Washington St.	16

Out of Top 25: (20) Kentucky, (24) Wisconsin

Honorable mention: Liberty, Air Force, Wisconsin, Troy, Clemson