This is not to complain or make excuses, but the college football landscape has changed a good bit since 2019. Some of it was due to COVID, but a lot of it is just due to the changing business of college football. I might not have even used the phrase “business of college football” a few years ago, but the bottom line definitely comes first even for most of the well-known players now.
I can’t do what I used to do (most recently in the lead-up to the 2019 season) and just look at how good a team was last year and the returning starters. Not that that was ever ALL I did, but it was a very good place to start. After the top 10 or so, you didn’t really have to go into much detail about who those players were.
One of the things that fundamentally changed how to do this is the transfer portal. A player might transfer out of a school at one position and a player who’s just as good or better (or at least has the same status as returning starter) might transfer in. A change at a position isn’t necessarily a negative. Sometimes it’s an upgrade. That was rarely true in the past. If you brought in a new quarterback, that guy had probably never started a game before. Even if he was a better recruit, he wasn’t ready to be a starter at the beginning of the season like a veteran would be.
The disappointment of his NFL career notwithstanding, a good example of this was JaMarcus Russell, who started his first game at Florida in 2004, Nick Saban’s last year. LSU had a veteran quarterback on the sidelines named Marcus Randall (confusing, I know). It looked like LSU was going to lose the game after the first few series with JaMarcus in the game (it’s less confusing to me if I call him that). In contrast to JaMarcus (who as you may recall was the #1 draft pick over the great Brady Quinn), Randall would go undrafted and ended up being a defensive player. His only official NFL stat was three tackles with the Tennessee Titans in 2005. Anyway, Randall came in to salvage the game and helped lead the Tigers to a respectable season. (They were a botched final play away from going 10-2.) With all the potential JaMarcus had compared to Randall, it was still better to have a veteran in that situation.
Marcus Randall (owner of the yellow helmet you can barely see in the back) was best known for throwing the “Bluegrass Miracle” winning touchdown pass as Kentucky fans began to storm the field and take the goalposts down.
In a more recent era, there might have been a graduate transfer or transfer portal player who stepped in for that year. If he were eligible for two seasons, JaMarcus might have transferred out in light of losing the job that day.
I also don’t know which QBs (the most important position to have a returning starter) even count. Is Max Johnson a “returning” starter albeit on another team (I heard today he’s not even a starter, but he would have counted if he’d stayed at LSU even if he ended up not starting)? Haynes King started last season for the Aggies but only played in two games (completing fewer passes than LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier), does he count? Bo Nix? TJ Finley? Jayden Daniels? That’s just talking about QBs who went to LSU or competed against a one-time LSU player, so you could have this conversation about every team at some position.
Philosophy of Preseason Ranking
I guess I’ve also gotten more mature and learned to relax better. Part of that means I’m not going to invest time into reinventing the wheel when there are knowledgeable people who do this stuff for a living. I’ve also grown accustomed to the idea that that will probably never be me.
In light of that, I’ve decided to just rely on a third party to calculate how much returning production there is per team. This is even more important than in pre-COVID years because the final team ratings last year were still thrown off by canceled bowl games and other COVID-related events. Anyway, I don’t have any objection to their formula. I’m just assuming they’re not made-up numbers.
The Top 15 is only partially based on last year and this formula anyway. Given what Georgia has done in recent years, I wasn’t comfortable dropping the Bulldogs out of the top five despite not having that much talent back by this measure. I also didn’t want to drop Baylor and Oklahoma State any more spots until they lose to someone.
I could have been a homer and snuck LSU in there, but I didn’t. Brian Kelly is a much more proven head coach than Lincoln Riley and Brent Venables, so I’m also not bending over backwards to put USC and Oklahoma very high (Oklahoma is in the heart of the top 25, but it’s low for them). USC could have returned 100% of its production from last year, and that wouldn’t be enough for me to put them in the top 25. Maybe USC or LSU will be knocking on the door of the top 10 by the end of the year, but I don’t just wipe the slate clean because you got a new coach and some transfers. Either could also be highly mediocre. You have to show everyone gelled and things are working out for a period of time to rehabilitate the respective losing records of last year (when USC was much worse than LSU, for the record).
I also want to make clear that (although I do think it’s relevant what a team’s overall ability to achieve is), this isn’t a prediction for the rankings at the end of the season. It’s more which teams I think are likely to have their act together in the next month. Otherwise I wouldn’t have put the Big XII teams as high as they are.
Even though it’s not an end-of-year prediction, I sort of pre-screened the top 15 for teams that might do well for a long period of time, I just happened to run out of teams that I could see competing for the playoff right when I got to #15. I do think those Big XII teams might get blown out in a playoff, but I could see any of the three going undefeated (or certainly finishing with only one loss) in the Big XII. Arkansas and Ole Miss are long shots, but only because they play in the SEC West. If they were in the Big XII, they would be in the same boat, maybe even a little bit ahead of that group.
After #15, I just calculated the most usable version of my computer rating system and multiplied it by returning production converted into a percentage. I tried a few different ways of multiplying it out, and there wasn’t a difference in the order for most teams. I did prefer the outcome where they were two fewer Group of Five teams. Houston and Boise St. were left out in lieu of Utah and Oregon. The Power Five teams had slightly more returning production, and Power Five teams almost invariably have deeper benches. I didn’t move anyone in numbers 16 through 25 even one spot once I settled on the final formula.
Comments about Selected Teams
Alabama was the runaway #1 in the formula. Obviously they’ve been the best team in the long run. The Tide have only failed to win 13 games or more once since (and including) 2015. They didn’t reach that mark in 2013 or 2014; but in 2013 (before there was a Playoff) the Tide started 11-0 before the Kick Six game, and in 2014 the Tide lost only one regular-season game before falling to Ohio St. in the national semifinal.
There is a strong chance Alabama will face Georgia in the postseason yet again.
By the way, even though obviously it did nothing for LSU, I am glad that Alabama fans got to feel the frustration of losing a national championship to a team you had already beaten. It’s not fair to have to beat them twice. One thing that doesn’t make it quite as bad is Alabama at least has one more loss than Georgia does. In 2011, LSU finished 13-1 (against a better schedule) and Alabama 12-1.
Speaking of Ohio St. (two paragraphs up), the Buckeyes had the best returning production on the list after BYU and Mississippi St. I couldn’t see a strong argument to make anyone else #2.
Clemson is still the most-recent national champion who doesn’t play in the SEC and also had good returning production, so I thought they deserved the nod for #3.
Cincinnati was #4 8 months ago and has a decent number of players coming back. Like the Georgia Bulldogs I mentioned, I wanted to keep Cincinnati in the top 5 until someone else earned their way in. I put the Bearcats higher because they have a good bit more coming back. Georgia probably still has a better team, but I’ll wait until the new players prove themselves.
I am a little more skeptical of Michigan. There was a big gap between Michigan and Georgia in the bowl. I think the Wolverines got up to this point more quickly and have a larger propensity to fall back down. I was proven wrong about them in the Big Ten (which might be the most exciting conference race) last year though. Maybe I will be again. If a team who loses a semifinal game was in my top 8, I won’t consider myself that wrong though.
Nine to 11 might seem strange, but I didn’t know where else to put them. The cupboard isn’t looking bare for them like it is for 12 to 14. They’re all credible up-and-coming major-conference programs. I guess I could have put them after Texas A&M, but I’m less comfortable with the teams I would have had to put higher. I did decide to keep Arkansas out of the top 10 given that I’d think there have to be some lingering effects from only winning 7 games from 2018 through 2020. Also, it’s hard to be any higher when you had a 3-game losing streak (that included a loss to Auburn) the season before. The Razorbacks played down to Mississippi St. and LSU (beating each by a single field goal) down the stretch as well before a good showing against Alabama.
As for Ole Miss, they finished 10 spots ahead of Iowa last year in my ratings, so I’ll give them a slight edge despite not having quite the same returning group. I don’t fault Iowa for the losses to Michigan and Kentucky to end the year, but like Arkansas, the Hawkeyes had an ugly stretch toward the middle (barely beat Penn St., whom the Razorbacks beat somewhat comfortably, at home, lost by a few possessions apiece to Purdue and Wisconsin, and only beat Northwestern by 5). I don’t think the downside risk is as bad for the Hawkeyes (who have only lost 9 games in the past three years and have not had a losing record since 2012) as it is for the Razorbacks though.
That’s about three pages of writing on my Word document. I’ll have to leave it there.
Top 25
Alabama
Ohio St.
Clemson
Cincinnati
Georgia
Michigan St.
Notre Dame
Michigan
Ole Miss
Iowa
Arkansas
Oklahoma St.
Oklahoma
Baylor
Texas A&M
North Carolina St.
Brigham Young
Kentucky
Mississippi St.
Texas Christian
U. Miami
Wake Forest
Pittsburgh
Utah
Oregon
Honorable mention: Houston, Maryland, LSU, Boise St., SMU, San Diego St.
Maryland went 7-2 last year against teams outside of the top ten, including a 54-10 win over Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl late last year.
The Bayou Blogger 
Alabama, Arizona St.., Auburn, Cincinnati, Clemson, College Football, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, LSU, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St., Notre Dame, Ohio St., Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, Texas A&M, USC
2022 Preseason Top 25
In College Football, General LSU, History, Me, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on August 31, 2022 at 10:33 AMTransfers and “Returning” Starters
This is not to complain or make excuses, but the college football landscape has changed a good bit since 2019. Some of it was due to COVID, but a lot of it is just due to the changing business of college football. I might not have even used the phrase “business of college football” a few years ago, but the bottom line definitely comes first even for most of the well-known players now.
I can’t do what I used to do (most recently in the lead-up to the 2019 season) and just look at how good a team was last year and the returning starters. Not that that was ever ALL I did, but it was a very good place to start. After the top 10 or so, you didn’t really have to go into much detail about who those players were.
One of the things that fundamentally changed how to do this is the transfer portal. A player might transfer out of a school at one position and a player who’s just as good or better (or at least has the same status as returning starter) might transfer in. A change at a position isn’t necessarily a negative. Sometimes it’s an upgrade. That was rarely true in the past. If you brought in a new quarterback, that guy had probably never started a game before. Even if he was a better recruit, he wasn’t ready to be a starter at the beginning of the season like a veteran would be.
The disappointment of his NFL career notwithstanding, a good example of this was JaMarcus Russell, who started his first game at Florida in 2004, Nick Saban’s last year. LSU had a veteran quarterback on the sidelines named Marcus Randall (confusing, I know). It looked like LSU was going to lose the game after the first few series with JaMarcus in the game (it’s less confusing to me if I call him that). In contrast to JaMarcus (who as you may recall was the #1 draft pick over the great Brady Quinn), Randall would go undrafted and ended up being a defensive player. His only official NFL stat was three tackles with the Tennessee Titans in 2005. Anyway, Randall came in to salvage the game and helped lead the Tigers to a respectable season. (They were a botched final play away from going 10-2.) With all the potential JaMarcus had compared to Randall, it was still better to have a veteran in that situation.
In a more recent era, there might have been a graduate transfer or transfer portal player who stepped in for that year. If he were eligible for two seasons, JaMarcus might have transferred out in light of losing the job that day.
I also don’t know which QBs (the most important position to have a returning starter) even count. Is Max Johnson a “returning” starter albeit on another team (I heard today he’s not even a starter, but he would have counted if he’d stayed at LSU even if he ended up not starting)? Haynes King started last season for the Aggies but only played in two games (completing fewer passes than LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier), does he count? Bo Nix? TJ Finley? Jayden Daniels? That’s just talking about QBs who went to LSU or competed against a one-time LSU player, so you could have this conversation about every team at some position.
Philosophy of Preseason Ranking
I guess I’ve also gotten more mature and learned to relax better. Part of that means I’m not going to invest time into reinventing the wheel when there are knowledgeable people who do this stuff for a living. I’ve also grown accustomed to the idea that that will probably never be me.
In light of that, I’ve decided to just rely on a third party to calculate how much returning production there is per team. This is even more important than in pre-COVID years because the final team ratings last year were still thrown off by canceled bowl games and other COVID-related events. Anyway, I don’t have any objection to their formula. I’m just assuming they’re not made-up numbers.
The Top 15 is only partially based on last year and this formula anyway. Given what Georgia has done in recent years, I wasn’t comfortable dropping the Bulldogs out of the top five despite not having that much talent back by this measure. I also didn’t want to drop Baylor and Oklahoma State any more spots until they lose to someone.
I could have been a homer and snuck LSU in there, but I didn’t. Brian Kelly is a much more proven head coach than Lincoln Riley and Brent Venables, so I’m also not bending over backwards to put USC and Oklahoma very high (Oklahoma is in the heart of the top 25, but it’s low for them). USC could have returned 100% of its production from last year, and that wouldn’t be enough for me to put them in the top 25. Maybe USC or LSU will be knocking on the door of the top 10 by the end of the year, but I don’t just wipe the slate clean because you got a new coach and some transfers. Either could also be highly mediocre. You have to show everyone gelled and things are working out for a period of time to rehabilitate the respective losing records of last year (when USC was much worse than LSU, for the record).
I also want to make clear that (although I do think it’s relevant what a team’s overall ability to achieve is), this isn’t a prediction for the rankings at the end of the season. It’s more which teams I think are likely to have their act together in the next month. Otherwise I wouldn’t have put the Big XII teams as high as they are.
Even though it’s not an end-of-year prediction, I sort of pre-screened the top 15 for teams that might do well for a long period of time, I just happened to run out of teams that I could see competing for the playoff right when I got to #15. I do think those Big XII teams might get blown out in a playoff, but I could see any of the three going undefeated (or certainly finishing with only one loss) in the Big XII. Arkansas and Ole Miss are long shots, but only because they play in the SEC West. If they were in the Big XII, they would be in the same boat, maybe even a little bit ahead of that group.
After #15, I just calculated the most usable version of my computer rating system and multiplied it by returning production converted into a percentage. I tried a few different ways of multiplying it out, and there wasn’t a difference in the order for most teams. I did prefer the outcome where they were two fewer Group of Five teams. Houston and Boise St. were left out in lieu of Utah and Oregon. The Power Five teams had slightly more returning production, and Power Five teams almost invariably have deeper benches. I didn’t move anyone in numbers 16 through 25 even one spot once I settled on the final formula.
Comments about Selected Teams
Alabama was the runaway #1 in the formula. Obviously they’ve been the best team in the long run. The Tide have only failed to win 13 games or more once since (and including) 2015. They didn’t reach that mark in 2013 or 2014; but in 2013 (before there was a Playoff) the Tide started 11-0 before the Kick Six game, and in 2014 the Tide lost only one regular-season game before falling to Ohio St. in the national semifinal.
By the way, even though obviously it did nothing for LSU, I am glad that Alabama fans got to feel the frustration of losing a national championship to a team you had already beaten. It’s not fair to have to beat them twice. One thing that doesn’t make it quite as bad is Alabama at least has one more loss than Georgia does. In 2011, LSU finished 13-1 (against a better schedule) and Alabama 12-1.
Speaking of Ohio St. (two paragraphs up), the Buckeyes had the best returning production on the list after BYU and Mississippi St. I couldn’t see a strong argument to make anyone else #2.
Clemson is still the most-recent national champion who doesn’t play in the SEC and also had good returning production, so I thought they deserved the nod for #3.
Cincinnati was #4 8 months ago and has a decent number of players coming back. Like the Georgia Bulldogs I mentioned, I wanted to keep Cincinnati in the top 5 until someone else earned their way in. I put the Bearcats higher because they have a good bit more coming back. Georgia probably still has a better team, but I’ll wait until the new players prove themselves.
I am a little more skeptical of Michigan. There was a big gap between Michigan and Georgia in the bowl. I think the Wolverines got up to this point more quickly and have a larger propensity to fall back down. I was proven wrong about them in the Big Ten (which might be the most exciting conference race) last year though. Maybe I will be again. If a team who loses a semifinal game was in my top 8, I won’t consider myself that wrong though.
Nine to 11 might seem strange, but I didn’t know where else to put them. The cupboard isn’t looking bare for them like it is for 12 to 14. They’re all credible up-and-coming major-conference programs. I guess I could have put them after Texas A&M, but I’m less comfortable with the teams I would have had to put higher. I did decide to keep Arkansas out of the top 10 given that I’d think there have to be some lingering effects from only winning 7 games from 2018 through 2020. Also, it’s hard to be any higher when you had a 3-game losing streak (that included a loss to Auburn) the season before. The Razorbacks played down to Mississippi St. and LSU (beating each by a single field goal) down the stretch as well before a good showing against Alabama.
As for Ole Miss, they finished 10 spots ahead of Iowa last year in my ratings, so I’ll give them a slight edge despite not having quite the same returning group. I don’t fault Iowa for the losses to Michigan and Kentucky to end the year, but like Arkansas, the Hawkeyes had an ugly stretch toward the middle (barely beat Penn St., whom the Razorbacks beat somewhat comfortably, at home, lost by a few possessions apiece to Purdue and Wisconsin, and only beat Northwestern by 5). I don’t think the downside risk is as bad for the Hawkeyes (who have only lost 9 games in the past three years and have not had a losing record since 2012) as it is for the Razorbacks though.
That’s about three pages of writing on my Word document. I’ll have to leave it there.
Top 25
Honorable mention: Houston, Maryland, LSU, Boise St., SMU, San Diego St.