Week 3 Top 25 & Miss. St. Reaction

I’ll start with LSU-Mississippi St. since there was nothing too earth-shattering elsewhere.  Both the Mississippi St. and Auburn entries of my Rivalry Series are updated.

The game Saturday was similar to some other recent games in the series in that one team dominated the first stretch of the game and another team dominated another.  Examples are when Mississippi St. held onto a win in 2014 and when LSU held onto wins in 2015 and 2016.  The difference here was the switch took place late in the first half rather than late in the second half and that not only did the team who did well initially not hold on, they ended up losing by double digits.

After LSU received the kickoff and earned a couple of first downs before being forced to punt, Mississippi St. scored on its first offensive possession.  The Bulldogs did need to convert a 4th and 1 from their own 22 but did not face a third down after that on the drive.  PK Ben Raybon missed the extra point wide right though.

The LSU defense kept up the pressure on Mississippi St. QB Will Rogers through most of the game in Baton Rouge on Saturday.

None of the next several drives by either team went very far.  The offense would get maybe one or two first downs but would still be forced to punt after that.  The only good opportunity to score was when LSU took over at the Mississippi St. 29 after a fourth-down attempt was unsuccessful, but then Daniels and Williams had miscommunication on a handoff/play action and the resulting fumble was recovered by State.

The first half ended with some drama.  Punter Jay Bramblett (44.8 average, 2 punts inside the 20) had a good kick, nearly 50 yards, but it was returned by Zavion Thomas for 26 yards to give the Bulldogs the ball in LSU territory.  The first play from scrimmage was a 35-yard rush by Dillon Johnson, after which State QB Will Rogers was able to complete a touchdown to Rara Thomas to give the Bulldogs a 13-0 lead.

As had happened at the end of the game against Florida St. two weeks before, LSU’s offensive woes seemed to melt away when they moved into the hurry-up offense after receiving the subsequent kickoff with only 2:14 remaining in the half.  LSU QB Jayden Daniels was 4-4 in the air (albeit for 27 yards) and also ran for 48 yards in the touchdown drive that only lasted 1:28.

It was not apparent at this point that LSU would dominate the rest of the game, but that was an easy place to draw the line as far as a turning point in hindsight as LSU would only give up three points after that.

After Mississippi St. had to punt after one first down to open the second half, Daniels picked up right where he left off.  At least this worked to lead LSU from its own 13 to field goal range, at which time he threw three incompletions; but at least the field goal was good, making the score 13-10.

Another good return by Mississippi St. (which was even better before a penalty cost them about 60 yards) did shift the momentum back somewhat.  After the Bulldogs converted 3^rd-and-longs, it was like the LSU defense went into lockdown mode.  Mississippi St. was forced to settle for a field goal on fourth and 16, returning the lead to 6.  The Bulldogs would not get another first down until the last few minutes of the game though.

The LSU offense wasn’t so dominant right away though.  After only one first down on the next drive (one of Daniels’s longer passes, for 15 yards), the Tigers went for it on fourth down from midfield, and it was a rather weak incompletion.  The Bulldogs’ next drive ended the exact same way after no first downs.  Then Daniels engineered one first down in the air before the LSU offense stalled yet again.

This time, they punted, and Austin Williams could not handle it.  It was recovered by the LSU long snapper Slade Roy who had made it downfield and was watching the attempted catch.  This gave LSU a first and goal.  After a false start backed them up, it took three rushing plays, but Daniels kept the ball himself on the second two and bounced around and into the end zone on third down giving LSU its first lead of the game on the second play of the fourth quarter.

Even though the field position wasn’t great on the next drive, the confidence seemed to carry over.  LSU would convert a 3^rd-and-5, 3^rd-and-1, and 3^rd-and-3 all in the air.  On the subsequent 3^rd-and-10, Daniels completed another pass, to RB Josh Williams; but it was not enough for a first down.  Despite the failure on fourth down earlier and despite the fact that it was probably a makable field goal, LSU went for it.  They were rewarded when a jump ball was caught by WR Malik Nabers (the game’s leading receiver) for 27 yards.  Williams then punched in the touchdown to put LSU up 8.

Rogers then threw three straight incompletions for the Bulldogs, leading to another punt.  LSU was forced into a 3^rd-and-8 on the next set of downs, but Daniels still seemed to maintain the same confidence and ran for the first down this time.  The next play after that, even though they got a breather with an injury timeout, the State defense seemed helpless as RB Armoni Goodwin ran up the middle for 47 yards, giving the Tigers the final margin of 31-16.  Jay Ward had a key interception on the next drive to end the last meaningful threat by the Bulldogs.

Armoni Goodwin’s run here helped to put the game away.

For the game, Mississippi St. was only 3/14 on third down and 1/4 on fourth down.  LSU was only 6/15 on third down but converted 6 of the last 7.  The Tigers’ only fourth down attempts were the two I mentioned, and one was converted.

This was the second straight game against major-conference competition when LSU scored 20 points or more in the last 15:08 of the game (41 total).  This compares to a total of 13 points combined in the two games in the first 44:52.   It would have been easier to explain if LSU had waited 8 more seconds to score a touchdown against Florida St., but you get the idea.  LSU also had the ball for 11 minutes and 20 seconds of the fourth quarter.  Maybe for the next SEC game they should scrimmage for 30-40 minutes before the game starts.  If Auburn (see Rivalry Series) plays like they did against Penn St., it may not be necessary though.

On that note, I’ll move on to discussion of the top 25…

Top 25 Discussion

I will be on vacation next week, so even though it’s early in the season to even look at potential computer ratings, I wanted to start incorporating them now so there is a better transition into next week’s ranking.  Then in the following two weeks rankings start to become completely objective.

So that explains some of the teams that fell In the rankings without losing or even necessarily playing badly.  For instance, Oklahoma St. has only played two FBS opponents and neither of those has a win over another FBS team.  They didn’t have to win at the last minute, but they didn’t beat those teams by impressive scores either.  The Cowboys have a week off before facing Baylor the next week.  Even if they win that one, I don’t see any way they will be able to substantiate a high ranking even then.  TCU also has a bad early schedule.

In my trial run of the computer rankings, there were 4 top-25 teams from the Pac-12.  I didn’t see any reason to exclude any of the four from this list even though only one was ranked going into the week.  In light of Oregon’s win over BYU, maybe that’s proof that Georgia is just that good, and I shouldn’t have dropped the Ducks out of the top 25 for that loss even though I was initially skeptical of the Bulldogs’ being nearly as good as last year.  Of the four, I’m still most skeptical of USC, but I ranked the Trojans a few spots ahead of the Beavers (settle down) because they had a relatively easy time against Fresno St., a common opponent.  I was also impressed by Washington’s win over Michigan St., who has a lot back from last year.

Washington WR Ja’Lynn Polk brings in a touchdown pass in the first half in Seattle on Saturday, a good day for the Pac-12.

I didn’t rank Penn St. because I think Auburn is great, but they’re not a cupcake, and having three wins over FBS opponents puts the Nittany Lions in select company at this point.  Syracuse (whose best win is 1-2 Louisville) is the only unranked team below that you can say that about.

The only huge step up I didn’t cover is North Carolina St., which did have a narrow win over East Carolina in Week 1; but it’s a win that looks pretty good right now. With the win over Texas Tech last week, the Wolf Pack has one of the best two-win combinations, especially for both wins to be out of conference.

I think the rest is easy enough to understand.

Here are a few undefeated teams to watch who for now are not ranked but could be if they keep winning and as the rankings become more objective: UCLA (didn’t like the South Alabama game, but margin of victory doesn’t count for much later in the season), Indiana, Florida St., Tulane, James Madison, Duke, Syracuse, Washington St., and Kansas.

Some teams who are in position to bounce back from early losses are Illinois, Wyoming, Mississippi St., Liberty, UL-Lafayette, SMU, Iowa, and East Carolina.

LSU isn’t on that second list right now, but obviously if Mississippi St. and Florida St. continue to do well, the Tigers will have a good chance once SEC play resumes.  I’m just not sure LSU will look great in the computers even with wins in the next two games (a win at Jordan-Hare would be a great step, but it won’t necessarily mean anything in the computer).  The Tigers are still very average in FBS at this point given how many teams are in the following categories: no losses at all, one loss to a team that (for now) appears better than Florida St., one loss that might be worse but with a win or wins that look better than LSU’s wins.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Georgia	1
2	Alabama	2
3	Ohio St.	3
4	Clemson	4
5	Michigan	6
6	Ole Miss	7
7	Oklahoma	10
8	Kentucky	11
9	Arkansas	8
10	N Carolina St.	16
11	Oregon	—
12	Washington	—
13	Oklahoma St.	9
14	Michigan St.	5
15	Cincinnati	13
16	BYU	12
17	Maryland	20
18	USC	—
19	TCU	15
20	Wake Forest	18
21	Baylor	19
22	Oregon St.	22
23	Tennessee	23
24	Iowa St.	25
25	Penn St.	—
—	Mississippi St.	14
—	U. Miami	17
—	Marshall	21
—	Texas Tech	24

Week 2 Top 25 and LSU (P)review

LSU Recap and Preview

I will not be giving any details about the Bulldogs, just about what is going on with LSU. I have updated my Rivalry Series blog in light of the upcoming game though.

LSU has either lost to or barely beat the Bulldogs in every game recently except for the two years in which Joe Burrow was the starting quarterback.  If we win at all, I’ll be satisfied.  If we win somewhat comfortably, I’ll be very encouraged.  A loss won’t necessarily be devastating, but LSU should beat unranked SEC opponents at home (even though I think the Bulldogs should be ranked) even in a mediocre year.  I know it’s easier said than done, but it should be an expectation.  

Malik Nabers carries the ball in the fourth quarter last year in Starkville. Nabers was the leading wide receiver in the game against Southern on Saturday.

One of the LSU shows found the biggest LSU naysayer they could.  Even he picked LSU to win this game (and lose all the other SEC games).  So while I do think the Bulldogs are underrated, I won’t be resting easy if LSU loses. 

Usually I’d barely mention an FCS opponent, but I hope it gave the coaches more data to make better decisions in the future.  What was done in the Southern game may also be a bit of a preview of what they’ll try to do against Mississippi St.  I’m not going to preview the Bulldogs though.

LSU did shore up some concerns in the game against Southern even though obviously what works against Southern may not work in ANY future games.  I think we can compare it to an NFL preseason game.  Cuts to an NFL roster and to some extent decisions about plays and the depth chart are made based on performances against opposition players who themselves often aren’t going to be playing a whole lot in the NFL.  Similarly, most Southern players could not get meaningful playing time at an SEC school (though a couple of former FCS players play for Florida St. and at least one plays for LSU).  But I think going through the motions of a game against at least some competitive athletic talent can tell you a little bit. 

It certainly gives you a basis for comparison of one player to another.  It provides some data points by which to determine who plays where in future games.  Coaches have a better idea of whom they can trust during the game.  You can’t always know that from practices and scrimmages alone.

I don’t know if the new center Charles Turner will be better than Garrett Dellinger, the center in the Florida St. game; but I didn’t notice any problems with snaps, and the coaches seem to like how he communicated.  Dellinger will still get a lot of playing time, but it will just be at guard instead.  I don’t think anyone is pretending we know how well Turner will block an SEC defensive lineman at center because he did an adequate job against Southern, but they could see how he handled the game environment and worked with his teammates.

Jayden Daniels did leave the game early enough that I think we were able to get some information about where he is compared to the backup Nussmeier.  Kelly said before the Florida St. game that they were 1-A and 1-B rather than 1 and 2 on the depth chart.  I’m pretty sure that was a lie.  We didn’t see Nussmeier at all in the Florida St. game even after the Tigers.

LSU only came up with 3 points in the first half; and although Nussmeier ended up throwing for more yards against Southern, he completed only 59% of his passes compared to Daniels’s 91%.  Daniels did not commit a turnover in either game, and Nussmeier threw two interceptions. Daniels threw three touchdowns, and Nussmeier threw none.  I don’t always think QBR is that great of a stat, but when one guy is near 100 and the other is under 20, I think that sums it up pretty well.

Again, I’m not banking on this counting for anything; but the starters did absolutely all they could.  It has been 129 years since LSU first played intercollegiate football, and the Tigers had never scored 37 points in a quarter before.  It only took 40 seconds of the second quarter to get to 44 points.  As for the defense, Southern didn’t score until one of those Nussmeier interceptions was returned late in the third quarter.  The LSU defense didn’t give up points until about 8 minutes remained in the game.  That was probably the third or fourth team by then. 

Micah Baskerville (23) blocks a punt late in the first quarter against Southern in Baton Rouge on Saturday.

Some players who weren’t even starters in the first game played great.  For instance, the game ball went to Micah Baskerville, who blocked a punt (which resulted in a safety) and returned an interception for a touchdown.  I’m told he was only in about a dozen plays against Florida St.  I don’t care if it was against easy competition, doing both of those things in the same season is hard to do, not to mention the same quarter.  Freshman 5-star recruit Harold Perkins, Jr., whom LSU just barely kept from going to Texas A&M, had a good game too with 7 tackles.

Malik Nabors was relieved of punt-return duties after two turnovers in that role against Florida St., but it was nice to see him score a touchdown on one pass and go for 60 yards on another.  Even if the latter were his only catch, Nabors would have led both teams in receiving yards.  It’s good that the ball was spread around by both quarterbacks too.  Hopefully it will keep the receivers more engaged and facilitate better communication and trust than we saw against Florida St.

Also, importantly, LSU had no major injuries and a couple of key players are actually available against Mississippi St. when they were not against Southern.  This includes RB Jon Emery, Jr., and DE BJ Ojulari.  DE Ali Gaye was suspended for a half for targeting, so he will be back as well.

Top 3

This first section ties into last week about certain SEC opponents looking more like winnable games than they did at first blush, but it’s also relevant as to why I’ve made a change at #1.  I did think it was a little unfair that Alabama had to play Georgia in a rematch, but maybe it was the SEC championship game that was the aberration last year.

Alabama has rebounded from looking vulnerable and even losing in September before; but even if by some miracle LSU had been able to convince Saban to come back (there is a contingent of LSU fans who had been trying to orchestrate that for 15 years… I think they finally gave up now that Kelly has a 9-figure contract and Saban is 70 years old), we probably would have had to start thinking about the future by now anyway.  Alabama may still win the national title, but the close win over Texas can be added to the following somewhat concerning close games last season (with final record of opponent and margin of victory):

7-6 Florida, 2 points

8-4 Texas A&M, LOST by 3 points

6-7 LSU, 6 points

9-4 Arkansas, 7 points

6-7 Auburn, 2 points

I haven’t changed my mind about Oregon (Georgia’s big win) being overrated in preseason.  I would have liked to have seen more Georgia Bulldog offense against Samford, but the defense can’t do anything better than a shutout. 

The reason I made the change is that Alabama won by a single point (and as I mentioned probably deserved to lose), and obviously the shine is taken off of Ohio St.’s win over Notre Dame given the Marshall game.  A team can win by one possession in a fluke, but the Irish had to score in the final moments of the game just to make it close.  So that’s really a similar type of game to what the Irish did in Columbus.

Remainder of Top 25

The rest of the top 10 remained intact.  Kentucky had a decisive road win against Florida, so that’s why the Wildcats moved up so much.  BYU’s win over Baylor was at home in overtime, and Baylor was one of the teams I was doubtful about (along with Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St.).  The Cougars still got credit for beating a ranked team but not as much as what Kentucky did.

Apart from Baylor (whom I didn’t want to drop double digits for an understandable close loss), the rest of the top 20 is made up of teams who moved up by default.

Marshall is obvious.  Oregon St. may not be, but I had Boise St. as one of the top unranked teams going into the season, and the Beavers beat the Broncos handily in Week 1.  Last week, Oregon St. went on the road to Fresno St. (who won 10 games last year) and won, albeit in a close contest.

Oregon St. WR Silas Bolden escapes a Fresno St. defender during a touchdown play in the first half in Fresno on Saturday.

Tennessee wasn’t great against Pittsburgh, but it’s still a Power 5 road win, so I gave the Vols the Panthers’ former spot.

Houston was also on my waiting list in preseason, so I went ahead and gave Texas Tech a spot for beating the Cougars.

Iowa St. didn’t look a whole lot better than South Dakota St. had against Iowa (both games in Iowa City); but the Jackrabbits were one of the best FCS teams last year.  As for the Cyclones, while they had needed the Hawkeyes to miss a field goal to escape with the win, I was still impressed by the defense.  Iowa’s one score was on a very short field.

I give Texas A&M some credit for their defense against Appalachian St. (who put up 40 points in one quarter against North Carolina after all) as well and considered leaving the Aggies in the Top 25 instead.  Although I do think the Aggies would likely beat the Cylones, 2-0 beats 1-1.  Texas A&M will go ahead of the Cyclones with a win this weekend anyway, so I also don’t mind giving Iowa St. the benefit of the doubt for now.

Speaking of the Aggies, I learned a couple of facts I wanted to share. (1) Jimbo Fisher makes more than 20 times as much per year as Appalachian St. head coach Shawn Clark. (2) Texas A&M has 56 players who were either 4- or 5-star recruits out of high school, but Appalachian St. has just 1.

Rank	Team	Last
1	Georgia	3
2	Alabama	1
3	Ohio St.	2
4	Clemson	4
5	Michigan St.	5
6	Michigan	6
7	Ole Miss	7
8	Arkansas	8
9	Oklahoma St.	9
10	Oklahoma	10
11	Kentucky	20
12	B. Young	17
13	Cincinnati	13
14	Miss. St.	16
15	TX Christian	18
16	N. Carolina St.	19
17	U. Miami	21
18	Wake Forest	22
19	Baylor	11
20	Maryland	25
21	Marshall	—
22	Oregon St.	—
23	Tennessee	—
24	Texas Tech	—
25	Iowa St.	—
—	Texas A&M	12
—	Notre Dame	14
—	Iowa	15
—	Pittsburgh	23
—	Florida	24

2022 Week 1 Top 25

I’ve had some computer problems that have prevented me from writing more and posting blogs when people are most likely to read them.  I have switched browsers for blog-posting; but if that doesn’t work, I may have to go to a new site.  If that happens, I will do my best to post a link here.  You can also follow me on Facebook for updates.  I also have a twitter account @TheBayouBlogger.

I will elaborate further later in the week, but I just wanted to say a few things about the LSU game and some of the reactions.

I HATE how the media is always in competition to say the most dramatic outlandish things after a single game.  There is no accountability for being wrong, they just get more clicks by being dramatic.  If it were up to the media alarmists, Ed Orgeron wouldn’t have made it past the Troy game.  Les Miles wouldn’t have lasted past the loss to Tennessee in 2005. (I don’t remember it being this bad in 2000, but I’ll get to that.)  Oh all problems at LSU aren’t fixed, I guess Brian Kelly stole 10 million dollars!  He should never show his face in public again after a one-point loss to a Power 5 opponent at a neutral site (FSU fans were there in droves, don’t give me that)! He’s blaming everyone but himself when he cited coaching as an issue four times in an 11-minute press conference!  He made a sarcastic comment about how maybe they could have played worse at halftime!

Then every November and December, these same people decry how fast coaches get fired after their fan bases are bombarded with dire negativity after every loss.  Some of them (Colin Cowherd, for instance) even attacked LSU in 2019 (when the Tigers had NO losses all year), saying they weren’t up to snuff because they allowed too many points and yards to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss in garbage time.

Top 25

I don’t like to shake things up too much after one game. Two months from now, I won’t really care about margin of victory; but I think a couple of these teams showed more problems than teams like Notre Dame and Cincinnati showed in losses. All four Division I teams Brian Kelly has coached lost this week.

I think replacing Utah with Florida was obvious, but the game certainly could have gone the other way. Even Oregon might well be a top-25 team. In 2006, Arkansas lost by even more to USC (the defending national runner-up); and the Razorbacks were national-title contenders until late November.

I listed six teams that I thought were good candidates for the last spot in preseason, but Maryland was the only one that played up to expectations. Obviously, the Terps may not be a top-25 team, but there was no obvious candidate to move ahead of them. One team I considered was Penn St., who had a good win at Purdue. Another was Indiana, who beat Illinois after the Illini easily beat Wyoming in “Week 0”, so right now there are seven Big Ten teams in my top 30. Not quite as many as the SEC, but close.

I only have the Bulldogs #3, but they certainly put up the most impressive score of the weekend. Pictured is Kenny McIntosh finding the corner of the end zone for a rushing touchdown during the first half against the Oregon Ducks in Atlanta on Saturday.

Some have said Georgia should be #2, but I think Notre Dame is significantly better than Oregon at the moment. I certainly understand if people who believed Oregon was a top-10 team differ with that assessment.

I think most of the changes are obvious if you just look at the results of a given team. The only one who slipped a little who might not be obvious based on the final score is Kentucky, who won 37-13 over Miami U.; but they only led 13-10 at halftime, and they only out-gained the RedHawks by 53 yards on offense.

Rank	Team	Last
1	Alabama	1
2	Ohio St.	2
3	Georgia	5
4	Clemson	3
5	Michigan St.	6
6	Michigan	8
7	Ole Miss	9
8	Arkansas	11
9	Oklahoma St.	12
10	Oklahoma	13
11	Baylor	14
12	Texas A&M	15
13	Cincinnati	4
14	Notre Dame	7
15	Iowa	10
16	Mississippi St.	19
17	B. Young	17
18	TX Christian	18
19	N. Carolina St.	16
20	Kentucky	18
21	U. Miami	21
22	Wake Forest	22
23	Pittsburgh	23
24	Florida	—
25	Maryland	—
—	Utah	24
—	Oregon	25

i thought it was easier to just include the teams that fell out on the same chart.

2022 Preseason Top 25

Transfers and “Returning” Starters

This is not to complain or make excuses, but the college football landscape has changed a good bit since 2019.  Some of it was due to COVID, but a lot of it is just due to the changing business of college football.  I might not have even used the phrase “business of college football” a few years ago, but the bottom line definitely comes first even for most of the well-known players now.

I can’t do what I used to do (most recently in the lead-up to the 2019 season) and just look at how good a team was last year and the returning starters.  Not that that was ever ALL I did, but it was a very good place to start.  After the top 10 or so, you didn’t really have to go into much detail about who those players were.

One of the things that fundamentally changed how to do this is the transfer portal.  A player might transfer out of a school at one position and a player who’s just as good or better (or at least has the same status as returning starter) might transfer in.  A change at a position isn’t necessarily a negative.  Sometimes it’s an upgrade.  That was rarely true in the past.  If you brought in a new quarterback, that guy had probably never started a game before.  Even if he was a better recruit, he wasn’t ready to be a starter at the beginning of the season like a veteran would be. 

The disappointment of his NFL career notwithstanding, a good example of this was JaMarcus Russell, who started his first game at Florida in 2004, Nick Saban’s last year.  LSU had a veteran quarterback on the sidelines named Marcus Randall (confusing, I know).  It looked like LSU was going to lose the game after the first few series with JaMarcus in the game (it’s less confusing to me if I call him that).  In contrast to JaMarcus (who as you may recall was the #1 draft pick over the great Brady Quinn), Randall would go undrafted and ended up being a defensive player.  His only official NFL stat was three tackles with the Tennessee Titans in 2005.  Anyway, Randall came in to salvage the game and helped lead the Tigers to a respectable season. (They were a botched final play away from going 10-2.)  With all the potential JaMarcus had compared to Randall, it was still better to have a veteran in that situation.

Marcus Randall (owner of the yellow helmet you can barely see in the back) was best known for throwing the “Bluegrass Miracle” winning touchdown pass as Kentucky fans began to storm the field and take the goalposts down.

In a more recent era, there might have been a graduate transfer or transfer portal player who stepped in for that year.  If he were eligible for two seasons, JaMarcus might have transferred out in light of losing the job that day. 

I also don’t know which QBs (the most important position to have a returning starter) even count.  Is Max Johnson a “returning” starter albeit on another team (I heard today he’s not even a starter, but he would have counted if he’d stayed at LSU even if he ended up not starting)?  Haynes King started last season for the Aggies but only played in two games (completing fewer passes than LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier), does he count?  Bo Nix?  TJ Finley?  Jayden Daniels?  That’s just talking about QBs who went to LSU or competed against a one-time LSU player, so you could have this conversation about every team at some position.

Philosophy of Preseason Ranking

I guess I’ve also gotten more mature and learned to relax better.  Part of that means I’m not going to invest time into reinventing the wheel when there are knowledgeable people who do this stuff for a living. I’ve also grown accustomed to the idea that that will probably never be me. 

In light of that, I’ve decided to just rely on a third party to calculate how much returning production there is per team.  This is even more important than in pre-COVID years because the final team ratings last year were still thrown off by canceled bowl games and other COVID-related events.  Anyway, I don’t have any objection to their formula. I’m just assuming they’re not made-up numbers.

The Top 15 is only partially based on last year and this formula anyway.  Given what Georgia has done in recent years, I wasn’t comfortable dropping the Bulldogs out of the top five despite not having that much talent back by this measure.  I also didn’t want to drop Baylor and Oklahoma State any more spots until they lose to someone.

I could have been a homer and snuck LSU in there, but I didn’t.  Brian Kelly is a much more proven head coach than Lincoln Riley and Brent Venables, so I’m also not bending over backwards to put USC and Oklahoma very high (Oklahoma is in the heart of the top 25, but it’s low for them).  USC could have returned 100% of its production from last year, and that wouldn’t be enough for me to put them in the top 25.  Maybe USC or LSU will be knocking on the door of the top 10 by the end of the year, but I don’t just wipe the slate clean because you got a new coach and some transfers.  Either could also be highly mediocre.  You have to show everyone gelled and things are working out for a period of time to rehabilitate the respective losing records of last year (when USC was much worse than LSU, for the record).

I also want to make clear that (although I do think it’s relevant what a team’s overall ability to achieve is), this isn’t a prediction for the rankings at the end of the season.  It’s more which teams I think are likely to have their act together in the next month.   Otherwise I wouldn’t have put the Big XII teams as high as they are. 

Even though it’s not an end-of-year prediction, I sort of pre-screened the top 15 for teams that might do well for a long period of time, I just happened to run out of teams that I could see competing for the playoff right when I got to #15. I do think those Big XII teams might get blown out in a playoff, but I could see any of the three going undefeated (or certainly finishing with only one loss) in the Big XII.  Arkansas and Ole Miss are long shots, but only because they play in the SEC West.  If they were in the Big XII, they would be in the same boat, maybe even a little bit ahead of that group.

After #15, I just calculated the most usable version of my computer rating system and multiplied it by returning production converted into a percentage.  I tried a few different ways of multiplying it out, and there wasn’t a difference in the order for most teams.  I did prefer the outcome where they were two fewer Group of Five teams.  Houston and Boise St. were left out in lieu of Utah and Oregon.  The Power Five teams had slightly more returning production, and Power Five teams almost invariably have deeper benches.  I didn’t move anyone in numbers 16 through 25 even one spot once I settled on the final formula.

Comments about Selected Teams

Alabama was the runaway #1 in the formula. Obviously they’ve been the best team in the long run.  The Tide have only failed to win 13 games or more once since (and including) 2015.  They didn’t reach that mark in 2013 or 2014; but in 2013 (before there was a Playoff) the Tide started 11-0 before the Kick Six game, and in 2014 the Tide lost only one regular-season game before falling to Ohio St. in the national semifinal.

There is a strong chance Alabama will face Georgia in the postseason yet again.

By the way, even though obviously it did nothing for LSU, I am glad that Alabama fans got to feel the frustration of losing a national championship to a team you had already beaten.  It’s not fair to have to beat them twice.  One thing that doesn’t make it quite as bad is Alabama at least has one more loss than Georgia does.  In 2011, LSU finished 13-1 (against a better schedule) and Alabama 12-1.

Speaking of Ohio St. (two paragraphs up), the Buckeyes had the best returning production on the list after BYU and Mississippi St.  I couldn’t see a strong argument to make anyone else #2.

Clemson is still the most-recent national champion who doesn’t play in the SEC and also had good returning production, so I thought they deserved the nod for #3.

Cincinnati was #4 8 months ago and has a decent number of players coming back.  Like the Georgia Bulldogs I mentioned, I wanted to keep Cincinnati in the top 5 until someone else earned their way in. I put the Bearcats higher because they have a good bit more coming back. Georgia probably still has a better team, but I’ll wait until the new players prove themselves.

I am a little more skeptical of Michigan.  There was a big gap between Michigan and Georgia in the bowl.  I think the Wolverines got up to this point more quickly and have a larger propensity to fall back down.  I was proven wrong about them in the Big Ten (which might be the most exciting conference race) last year though.  Maybe I will be again.  If a team who loses a semifinal game was in my top 8, I won’t consider myself that wrong though.

Nine to 11 might seem strange, but I didn’t know where else to put them.  The cupboard isn’t looking bare for them like it is for 12 to 14.  They’re all credible up-and-coming major-conference programs.  I guess I could have put them after Texas A&M, but I’m less comfortable with the teams I would have had to put higher.  I did decide to keep Arkansas out of the top 10 given that I’d think there have to be some lingering effects from only winning 7 games from 2018 through 2020.  Also, it’s hard to be any higher when you had a 3-game losing streak (that included a loss to Auburn) the season before.  The Razorbacks played down to Mississippi St. and LSU (beating each by a single field goal) down the stretch as well before a good showing against Alabama. 

As for Ole Miss, they finished 10 spots ahead of Iowa last year in my ratings, so I’ll give them a slight edge despite not having quite the same returning group.  I don’t fault Iowa for the losses to Michigan and Kentucky to end the year, but like Arkansas, the Hawkeyes had an ugly stretch toward the middle (barely beat Penn St., whom the Razorbacks beat somewhat comfortably, at home, lost by a few possessions apiece to Purdue and Wisconsin, and only beat Northwestern by 5).  I don’t think the downside risk is as bad for the Hawkeyes (who have only lost 9 games in the past three years and have not had a losing record since 2012) as it is for the Razorbacks though. 

That’s about three pages of writing on my Word document.  I’ll have to leave it there.

Top 25

1. Alabama
2. Ohio St.
3. Clemson
4. Cincinnati
5. Georgia
6. Michigan St.
7. Notre Dame
8. Michigan
9. Ole Miss
10. Iowa
11. Arkansas
12. Oklahoma St.
13. Oklahoma
14. Baylor
15. Texas A&M
16. North Carolina St.
17. Brigham Young
18. Kentucky
19. Mississippi St.
20. Texas Christian
21. U. Miami
22. Wake Forest
23. Pittsburgh
24. Utah
25. Oregon

Honorable mention: Houston, Maryland, LSU, Boise St., SMU, San Diego St.

Maryland went 7-2 last year against teams outside of the top ten, including a 54-10 win over Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl late last year.

Final Thoughts on Brian Kelly Going to LSU

Before I begin, I wanted to note I’ve updated my ratings in light of the Army-Navy game and recent FCS results.

I have gone into detail about how I understand the Brian Kelly hiring came about and why Notre Dame isn’t some horribly aggrieved party, but I haven’t really gone into what I think of the hire.

A lot of LSU fans were dismayed that we didn’t hire a 30-something offensive-minded coach who throws the ball around.  Everyone wants the next Sean McVay even though he’s only won three NFL playoff games in his life, and one was the controversial NFC championship game against the Saints.  Hunt Palmer, one of the LSU commentators I actually respect and listen to, said he’s “infatuated” with young coaches like that.  You can imagine what the people I hold in less esteem have been saying.  Basically, they think if you have a modern passing game, it doesn’t matter what kind of defense or line or player development or organization you have.

Are Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban really similar to McVay? Dabo was a young offensive-minded coach when he started, but he joined Clemson’s staff when McVay was 16 and became Clemson’s head coach when McVay was 22.  He was not some cutting-edge offensive wizard teaching all the old fogeys the error of their ways.  He was hired by Tommy Bowden after all.  Even if you still think Dabo is along the same lines as McVay, why aren’t Saban and Belichick, two older defensive coaches, better examples to follow?  Kelly was a defensive coach before was an offensive coach, by the way.  I’m not an NFL expert, but I’d also argue there are some possible analogies between Kelly and Andy Reid, who hadn’t won a Super Bowl as head coach before going to Kansas City.

For reasons I don’t quite understand, Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay has been seen as the prototype hire in both college and professional football since being hired shortly before his 31st birthday in 2017.

I do accept that a national championship is an item missing from Kelly’s resume (McVay doesn’t have a Super Bowl title either), but let’s look at the other national championship coaches of the last 20 years and see if they’re better.  Larry Coker (2001) kept U. Miami going strong for two years but ran it into the ground after that.  Jim Tressel (2002) has been out of coaching since 2010 and won on another controversial interference call.  You know who Nick Saban (2003, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2020) and Pete Carroll (2004) are, but they’re obviously not available, not to mention both being over 70.  Mack Brown (2005) has had mediocre results (and a six-year hiatus) since losing the BCS national championship to Alabama in 2009. 

As mentioned, I think being 30-40 is overrated, but that doesn’t mean we should hire someone over 70.  Urban Meyer (2006, 2008, and 2014) is coaching in Jacksonville and didn’t seem interested in any college job.  We gave Les Miles (2007) enough chances to try to bring back the magic of 2007 and 2011.  Not too unlike Brown, Chizik (2010), Fisher (2013), and Orgeron (2019) became mediocre fairly quickly after their respective championships, costing Chizik and Orgeron (respectively) their jobs within two years.  Fisher made a lateral move to Texas A&M, where, except for the COVID-shortened year, the mediocrity has continued.  More on Fisher in a moment.

Dabo (2016 and 2018) would have been the best choice among prior champions in my opinion, but he wasn’t coming either.  Obviously he’s still second to Saban among active college coaches, but I think rebuilding a program and seeing it through is the task of someone younger. 

That brings up another issue.  Some LSU fans apparently think we can just apply a couple of band-aids and 2019 will just emerge again.  You can’t win recruits over Alabama and Texas A&M and other regional rivals when you go .500 and can’t find a coordinator on either side.  Dave Aranda came to coach for Les Miles in 2016, but Orgeron showed no ability to find someone similar on either side of the ball (the defensive coordinator he hired in the offseason showed some promise in November but was either unready or over-supervised before).  Steve Ensminger did a good job with a field full of talent (and with the help of analyst Joe Brady in 2019); but again, he came from Miles’s staff, and there was no indication Orgeron could find someone similar.  Ensminger demoted himself to analyst going into this season.

As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, it was fortunate that Orgeron took over when he did and that as many Miles holdovers and Miles recruits stayed on as they did.  If it weren’t for the recruits that came after 2018 and 2019, there would be very little of value to hold onto.  It would be a rebuild similar to Saban’s rebuild of LSU in 2000.  Maybe someone like Mel Tucker would have been the next Saban (LSU hired Saban from the same school where Tucker works), but that would have been a gamble.  Tucker was paid very well to stay anyway.  It seems Notre Dame had no intention of paying Kelly anything similar to what the top coaches make now.

New LSU head coach Brian Kelly acknowledges the crowd at his welcoming festivities on November 30 in Baton Rouge.

I just really don’t see how LSU could have done any better.  I mentioned how I feel about Jimbo.  While I covered how I feel about coaches of similar background, I didn’t mention Lincoln Riley specifically.  Riley didn’t have to rebuild anything at Oklahoma.  He continued what Bob Stoops was already doing, and he even had Stoops there for support.  Imagine Saban had been at LSU since 2000, retired, and stayed on to help with the next coach.  His advice could have helped someone like Orgeron have a long, successful career with LSU.  Riley might do well at USC, but it’s really uncertain how he can do on his own when inheriting a 4-8 team rather than an 11-2 team as he did at Oklahoma.  He’s part of a series of young offensive-minded Trojan head coaches.  Even if he is successful, it won’t be proof that that’s a great model to follow. 

Riley did make the national semifinals in each of his first three seasons, but the fourth year is when it fully becomes your team.  There are still some players recruited by the previous staff, but at that point the old staff did little to develop those players, and they’re usually a small minority of those who are playing.  The Sooners started 1-2 last year and then went 1-2 against ranked teams this year.  The only reason they got the one win was due to how vastly overrated Texas was, and the Sooners needed a big comeback to even win that game.  They also struggled against Tulane, West Virginia, Kansas St., and Kansas.  Obviously, struggling to a 10-2 record is much better than what LSU has done for the last two years, so I wouldn’t have been upset with a Riley hire; but I would have deeper concerns than I do with Kelly.  Also, given the struggles with teams who were ranked, I don’t even know if Riley would have done better than Orgeron’s 2-5 record against ranked teams this year.  I also don’t know how he would handle facing six ranked teams in a row as LSU did.

Riley’s performance doesn’t compare to Kelly’s taking over a program that went 15-23 over its last 38 games and then winning 74% of his games over 12 seasons as Kelly did.  Even within his time there, Kelly was also on the upswing.  Rather than becoming less competitive, Notre Dame was becoming more competitive.  The Irish finished in top five of the College Football Playoff for the third time in four years and finished with double-digit wins for the fifth year in a row.  By contrast, Kelly had only had double-digit wins twice in his first seven years. 

In the 16 years before Kelly, there were only 2 seasons with double-digit wins (both with exactly 10 wins), by the way.  So I’m not saying we have to wait seven years before LSU is going to be nationally competitive on a regular basis.  In the last 16 years, by contrast, LSU has had 8 seasons with 10 or more wins and 5 seasons with 11 or more wins. 

Another line of thinking that bothered me was Kelly just not being a “good fit” with the “culture”.  That could mean a couple of different things, but neither one checks out.  If I were a USC fan, being consistent with the recent football culture would be a bad thing, and I feel the same way as an LSU fan.  I enjoyed some of the cartoonish aspects of Les Miles and Coach O, but it’s time for something a little more serious.  Kelly does seem a little warmer than Saban or Urban Meyer, but that isn’t saying much.  I think Fisher and Dabo are more likeable from the press conferences, but I don’t know how they compare behind the scenes.  Regardless of personality, I’d rather wins result from an organized plan than be a result of almost haphazard luck that Orgeron and Miles seemed to tap into. 

Let’s not pretend Les Miles or Nick Saban were comparing notes on gumbo and boudin recipes when they arrived at LSU either. Les was from Ohio and had coached college only in the Big Ten, Big 8, and Big XII.  A coastal person might think Saban being from West Virginia places him somewhere close to Louisiana culture, but I can assure you it does not.  Also, Saban (like Kelly) had spent nearly his whole coaching career in the Midwest before going to LSU (even the exceptions of West Virginia and Syracuse are both pretty close to Pennsylvania and Ohio).  Saban had also played college ball in the Midwest.

LSU athletic director Scott Woodward (pictured at his first press conference in April 2019) has not been afraid to make waves in his first 20 months on the job.

Another weird reaction was that based on age he’s not a typical Scott Woodward hire.  Woodward did hire baseball coach Jay Johnson, who is 44; but the first candidate he submitted to the board was Kevin O’Sullivan, who is almost 10 years older.  Another candidate who was widely reported as under consideration was Pat Casey, who is 62.  Men’s basketball coach Will Wade is young, but he was not hired by Woodward.  First-year women’s basketball coach Kim Mulkey is 59.  Mulkey comes off as more intense and less conservative than Kelly, but there is no reason to believe age limits either one.  At Texas A&M, Woodward hired Fisher, who was then 52 (reportedly, 4 years later, Fisher was Woodward’s first choice as LSU head coach). 

I think Woodward is more about extensive championship-level experience than age.  Fisher’s teams only played for one national championship (which the Seminoles won) as head coach, but he coached in the 2003 championship as offensive coordinator at LSU and contributed in both recruiting and development to the Tigers’ championship in 2007, which took place his first year away from Baton Rouge after he had been there seven years.  The Seminoles had also lost in the semifinals in 2014.  O’Sullivan coached in two national championships, winning one; and Casey and Mulkey had multiple national championships.  Woodward ultimately couldn’t get a championship baseball coach, but Johnson was the head coach of the National Runners-up in 2016 and returned to the College World Series last year. 

I do agree with some criticisms that it would be better if Kelly were a bit younger; but when Saban was hired at Alabama, he was only about 4 years younger than Kelly is now.  That was one of the best college football hires anyone has ever made.  I don’t expect Kelly to be one of the best hires ever made if we review the decision in 15 years (Alabama hired Saban after the 2006 season), but expecting anything better on paper is ridiculous.  It was also a good decision when LSU hired Saban 22 years ago, but he was young enough to be tempted into an NFL head coaching job 5 years later.  I think when you hire someone around 60, they’re less likely to go that direction and less likely to leave to embark on another big project before retirement.

Brian Kelly Timeline and New Rankings

Brian Kelly Timeline

In the last blog, I decided not to speculate on some aspects of how the deal that brought Kelly to LSU materialized (through his agent) when and how it did.  I’m glad that I didn’t because more information has come out.  It’s not completely different from what I thought, but the picture is more complete now. 

Brian Kelly made an interesting comment to Rece Davis in an interview on GameDay.   He said that his agent Trace Armstrong told him about several inquiries that he had received; but he only discussed this at the end of the season.  Unless his agent called his wife and cleared it with her first, I don’t think he meant the very end of the season.  I suspect that he wasn’t so overwhelmed with the stress of Notre Dame’s looming game against 3-8 Stanford that he took a little bit of time to have conversations with his agent and his family during the week prior to that game.  It is plausible that the only direct conversation with Woodward was after the Stanford game though, and it makes sense that everything had to become settled relatively quickly.  My conclusion about Kelly having some prior conversations is also supported by LSU grad Booger McFarland, who said the deal with Kelly (or at least the formal offer) was already on the verge of being finalized on Saturday.

Rece Davis interviewed Brian Kelly in a meeting room on the LSU campus. The interview aired on GameDay yesterday.

I think Armstrong knew Kelly and Woodward were keeping quiet, so he had the opportunity to fill the void by suggesting the job was actually going to Riley.  Riley was probably going to USC at that point anyway, but Armstrong was able to get a more favorable contract approved more quickly than he would have otherwise.  It didn’t hurt Kelly that he was able to stay under the radar as long as he did.  Whether Riley’s name floating around helped Woodward to secure the funding I’m not sure.  Some have speculated that Woodward knew a long time ago, perhaps before even taking the job or at least before the Orgeron announcement, the money was going to be in place.

I imagine someone at LSU other than Scott Woodward had to be apprised of the situation to finalize the deal even though Woodward was given broad latitude.  At that point a leak was inevitable.  Any major news about LSU football gets all over town very quickly.  I’m not saying the leak was out of malice.  It might have just been to calm down some of the hysteria regarding Riley going to another team.  Some worried that Riley was the guy Woodward was counting on all this time and that he didn’t have a backup plan.

There was an article by former LSU beat writer Ross Dellenger, who now works for Sports Illustrated.  It says that Woodward made one last phone call to Jimbo Fisher prior to the weekend before proceeding with hiring Kelly.  I hope that isn’t true; but if it is, I’m glad Jimbo said no.  I know Woodward likes to hire champions, but Fisher left Florida St. as it was going down the tubes in the years after his national title there.  I certainly think his is an improvement over the previous coaching staff in College Station, but you don’t pay someone a salary like that to go 8-4.  I’m not certain Kelly will do better, but I’d rather have the uncertainty than the knowledge of what Jimbo has done in recent years.  If he were available, I think it would have cost a lot more than the Kelly deal did anyway.

Ratings and Playoff Commentary

I mentioned last week that Alabama did not schedule well out of conference; but the Tide played 6 games against SEC West opponents, all of whom were bowl-eligible and which included #9 Ole Miss, as well as otherwise-undefeated Georgia and 7-5 Tennessee. 

I explained last week that Oklahoma St. had a very good schedule, and it was even better than Alabama’s.  This is why the Cowboys are ranked higher than Notre Dame despite the additional loss.  To illustrate this point, Virginia and West Virginia are both 6-6 with almost identical strengths of schedule.  Notre Dame beat Virginia, while Oklahoma St. beat West Virginia.  Notre Dame only beat two teams that were better: Purdue and Wisconsin.  Oklahoma St. beat four teams that were better: Boise St., Kansas St., Baylor, and Oklahoma.  Both teams won 2/3 of their games against better teams, but being tested more often should give Oklahoma St. the edge. Even if we expand it to the top 80 (we are still talking about risky opponents here—#76 TCU beat Baylor, #77 Illinois beat two ranked teams on the road, and #70 Florida was a field goal away from beating Alabama), Oklahoma St. still played almost twice as many in that range.

Baylor does belong lower than Notre Dame though.  Although BYU was a good non-conference opponent, the Bears scheduled Texas St. (who went 4-8 and is my #111) and Texas Southern (who only beat two other FCS opponents).  Although they essentially played the game conference schedule as Oklahoma St. did, losing to bad teams is punished a little more harshly.  As mentioned, TCU is #76.  Iowa St., who beat Oklahoma St., is #49. 

All three are relatively close though.  There is more than twice as much separation between #4 Cincinnati and #5 Oklahoma St. than there is between #5 Oklahoma St. and #7 Baylor.  There is just under twice as much space between #7 Baylor and #8 Ohio St.

There is a consensus about who the four semifinal teams should be and since the focus of my ratings is creating a fair objective top four, I could not be more satisfied.  You can quibble about how high UL-Lafayette and UT-San Antonio are—I think teams like Michigan St., Oklahoma, and Utah would beat both easily—but I don’t mind giving credit to successful seasons.  Even with an expanded playoff, I wouldn’t want teams with more than one or two losses this season in it, so I don’t mind if 1-loss ULL or 1-loss UTSA are higher than teams who would be highly favored to beat them.

I also think if Cincinnati played number 5 through 10 they’d be lucky to win one or two.  On the other hand, the Bearcats are 1-0 against that group; and a lot of people would have told you out of 10 tries Oregon would beat Utah 9 or 10 of them.  If you missed it, the Ducks had two shots at the Utes and fell far short both times.  Anyway, I also don’t think a two-loss non-champion would be more deserving of a slot in the top 4 even if they look better to me.  Oklahoma St. and others had their chances and fell short. About a foot short in the case of Oklahoma St. against Baylor.  The best Cowboy teams always lose to Iowa St. though. This also happened 10 years ago when the Cowboys missed the top two in favor of the Tide.

Houston stayed close with Cincinnati for a while, so I don’t love the fact that they fell out of the top 25; but Utah St. deserved to move back into it after their solid win over San Diego St. for the Mountain West title.  I like seeing some stability as far as which teams are in the top 25.  In the last three weeks, only four teams have fallen out.  Utah St. was one of those four, so there are only three different teams than there were three weeks ago. 

Championship losers San Diego St., Appalachian St., and Wake Forest all managed to stay in the top 25.  There needs to be a penalty for losing; but just like I’m glad Oklahoma St. didn’t fall out of the top 5 in favor of Notre Dame, I like that it’s not so harsh that any of the three fell below enough idle teams to fall out of the top 25.  

Alabama QB Bryce Young drops back to pass in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia in Atlanta on Saturday. Alabama is now the consensus Number 1 team going into the bowls. The Tide will play Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl on December 31.

I wrote everything above last night, but I just wanted to respond briefly to Michigan being placed ahead of Georgia.  It doesn’t really matter who #2 and #3 are, but it’s the only difference between the respective top fours, so I wanted to address it.

Georgia Tech isn’t even in that top 80 group I was talking about, but the Bulldogs are in luck because that’s the third-best team they scheduled out of conference.  I have Clemson just outside of the top 25 and UAB at #50.  Of course they avoided Alabama and Ole Miss in the regular season. Imagine the arguments if they had played Alabama.  Anyway, Arkansas and Auburn as the non-divisional games still aren’t bad.  Michigan’s Big Ten schedule did include some bad teams though.  Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Indiana all have losing records compared to just one in-conference opponent for Georgia that had a losing record.  Michigan’s one Power Five opponent rates worse than Georgia Tech.  MAC champion Northern Illinois was a help and Western Michigan rated similarly to UAB, but it should not be enough to put them ahead.

That said, if the committee made the decision based on the team that will take the field at the end of the month being harder to beat rather than resume, I do agree with Michigan being ahead.  They finished very strong.  If they play the way they played against Ohio St. and Iowa, they can beat anyone.  If Georgia plays the way they played against Alabama, especially with the turnovers, they won’t have much of a chance.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Alabama	3
2	Georgia	1
3	Michigan	4
4	Cincinnati	5
5	Oklahoma St.	2
6	Notre Dame	6
7	Baylor	9
8	Ohio St.	7
9	Ole Miss	8
10	B. Young	11
11	UL-Lafayette	16
12	Michigan St.	13
13	Oklahoma	15
14	TX-San Anton’	20
15	Pittsburgh	21
16	Utah	22
17	Wisconsin	18
18	Iowa	10
19	San Diego St.	12
20	Oregon	14
21	Boise St.	24
22	App. State	17
23	Arkansas	25
24	Utah St.	—
25	Wake Forest	19

Out of Rankings: (23) Houston

1-130 computer ratings

Why It Wasn’t Wrong for Kelly to Leave Notre Dame

There was no way to encapsulate all of my thoughts about the events of the last 5 or 6 days into a single blog. For now, I’m going to focus on Kelly leaving Notre Dame and how I understand that happened. I’ve decided to start with a collection of often misrepresented or misunderstood facts and then use those facts to come to reasonable conclusions. Some of the facts may seem a little sarcastic, but it’s not my fault how many people fail to acknowledge such obvious facts in their reaction to this situation. I will discuss Kelly’s fit with LSU and other matters in other blogs.

Facts

Kelly had recently said that for him to leave there needed to be a fairy godmother with a check for a quarter billion dollars OR he had to talk to his wife.

• The only confirmed conversation between Woodward and Kelly was some point between the Notre Dame-Stanford game and the news broke on Monday. 

• Kelly stayed on the West Coast after the game for recruiting for Notre Dame.

• Leaked text of contract was dated Sunday.

• There were widespread reports of a conversation in October, but Kelly said he didn’t engage in any and he can’t speak to what conversations his agent did and didn’t have.

• Kelly said after meeting with a recruit’s family he found out news broke.

• There is no known ability that Brian Kelly has to shut down social media or sports reporters nationwide.

• There have been no documented cases of time travel.

• I’m not sure where he was recruiting, but Stanford plays just south of San Francisco and he said he picked up his lawyer and they left from Orange County, which is South of Los Angeles.

• Kelly probably did not check his phone while with a recruit and also was not available by phone while in the air.  This apparently led some to believe he was deliberately ignoring his assistants.

• Kelly and Lincoln Riley share the same agent.

• When LSU fans were largely under the impression the coach would be Riley, there was a report that a press conference was expected Wednesday or Thursday.

• After texting Monday night while preparing to return, Kelly met with Notre Dame players on Tuesday morning.

• On Tuesday evening, Notre Dame was ranked #6 in the College Football Playoff rankings.

• Kelly would not say whether a higher ranking would have affected his decision.

• The early signing period begins two weeks from the introductory press conference that was on Wednesday.

• Unlike many other successful teams this season, Notre Dame is idle until the bowl games.

• The Notre Dame AD did not ask assistant coaches to return since they were also busy recruiting.

• Brian Kelly was at Notre Dame for 12 years and is the all-time winningest coach in Irish history.

• It is very common for coaching changes to take place after regular-season games but before bowl games, and this has been the case going back decades.

• Games that take place after the regular season are called the post-season, not the mid-season, so leaving after those games is not accurately characterized as “leaving in the middle of the season”.

Inferences and Conclusions

Obviously, I don’t think his agent had meaningful conversations without apprising him or that his wife and family were first given the opportunity to think about it late Saturday night.  I think he kept it vague enough that while he might not know of every conversation, he knew of the conversations that he had with the agent.  My guess is the contract in its final form was drafted on Sunday but not finalized and agreed to until Monday.

In an increasingly rare sight, two coaches each with over 10 years of experience as head coach of their respective schools (Stanford’s David Shaw, left, and Brian Kelly, then of Notre Dame, to the right) exchange pleasantries after a Power-5 football game, which in this case had taken place Saturday night in Stanford, Calif. Approximately 48 hours later, it was revealed in no uncertain terms that Kelly would be leaving the Irish with his last stop in South Bend being early Tuesday morning.

Kelly didn’t want to miss any time recruiting in the event he were to stay at Notre Dame. Although it may hurt in the committee, it makes sense for Notre Dame to take advantage of not having a game coming up to get an edge on the many good teams who do have a game coming up this weekend.  The Notre Dame AD said he didn’t ask any of his coaches to come back to South Bend, so it was busy for them too.  Kelly denied and I heard no reports that Kelly had negotiated with any other teams.

I can understand the frustration of an assistant who just had a meeting with a recruit and sees or hears on his phone somehow that the head coach is leaving and then can’t get in touch with the head coach.  Rather than taking a deep breath and thinking about logistical issues that can arise, apparently this assistant assumed the worst and got on the phone with a reporter to vent his frustrations.  That does not mean Kelly screwed anyone over or left anyone high and dry.  That’s just melodrama the media tried to sell.

Since that was about the worst possible ranking the Irish could have realistically had this week, it’s safe to say that waiting a couple of days wouldn’t have mattered even if the news hadn’t come out.  I don’t think waiting until this coming Sunday was an option though. There may have been a revolution in Baton Rouge if people waited that long without further clarity as to the coaching situation there, and anyone who did know would not have been able to keep quiet that long.

Some people say that he should only have even entertained an offer if they were eliminated, but remember that LSU finished #2 in the BCS rankings in 2007 with two losses.  The Tigers had jumped from #7 to #2 on championship weekend. With that in mind, when are you really out of contention for #4? #10 maybe? So everyone can leave but the coaches with the 9 most successful teams of the year after the regular season? In other words, you can have anyone except the coaches you probably want at that moment. After Brian Kelly’s last game in Cincinnati, the Bearcats were ranked #4. After Nick Saban’s last game at Michigan St., the Spartans were ranked #9. Maybe Saban never coaches in the SEC if such a rule were put in place. Certainly, Notre Dame wouldn’t have hired Brian Kelly the year they did in the first place. So don’t listen to these appeals to principle by Notre Dame fans. They’re fine with taking coaches from the best teams, in their case while an undefeated campaign was ongoing. They just never thought the shoe would be on the other foot.

Also, even if he were 40, you don’t get your best offers after an off year.  Saban didn’t say, “We finally have a good bowl game this year, call me back another year if we go back to the Independence Bowl.” No one at Notre Dame had a problem bringing Kelly in after he had an undefeated season at Cincinnati and they were going to the Sugar Bowl.   I know they’re not national championships, but Michigan St. and Cincinnati aren’t Notre Dame.  Notre Dame had some down years in recent memory, but they didn’t go winless like Michigan St. did before Saban took over.  Michigan St. was a big program at some point, but Cincinnati never was.

Brian Kelly celebrates a dramatic comeback win in the final regular-season game against Pittsburgh in 2009. Cincinnati clinched the Big East championship with the win. Two days later, the New York Times reported Kelly would interview with the Irish. Kelly was selected and negotiations were completed by the following Thursday.

If Kelly had ended up staying at Notre Dame, he wouldn’t have wanted to endanger that by not using this opportunity to recruit.  He certainly wouldn’t have wanted to let on that he was talking to other programs about their job.  That could have left him with neither job.  If LSU didn’t work out and Notre Dame had let him stay, that could have strained a lot of relationships and cost him a chance to win at least one playoff game.  If Georgia beats Alabama comfortably, they’ll be a clear #1 and I wouldn’t give Notre Dame a chance; but if Alabama wins, I don’t know who #1 is.  I guess it would be Michigan, but if Michigan St. beat them Notre Dame can.  This might have been the only really good chance Notre Dame had, and time is not on your side at 60.

I also want to mention that it’s very unlikely that Kelly was offered more than a very brief speech.  The Notre Dame administration would not have wanted him to have conversations with players that could have led to transfers to LSU, nor would they want more than a brief distraction even if that were not a risk.

I know it’s unfortunate that his departure could be used against Notre Dame, but NCAA/CFP college football made this mess, not Lincoln Riley and not Brian Kelly.  They shouldn’t penalize any team for their coach making a rational decision based on the recruiting schedule.

Some say if they’re really harsh it will teach schools a lesson not to fire coaches.  How would punishing Notre Dame teach LSU a lesson?  What?

Others who pretend to take the players’ side say coaches shouldn’t be able to actually leave at this time.  So coaches can make plans to leave, but they’re stuck.  How hard are they going to recruit if they know they’re not getting the player?  For the players the school gets despite the coach potentially blowing it, they’re going to be signing up to play for a coach who won’t even be the coach when they arrive on campus.  Whatever university hires that coach will have a whole recruiting class who didn’t sign up to have that coach.  I’m for the escape valve of the transfer portal (although I think there should be certain date ranges), but you could end up with almost as many players in it as out of it.  I don’t think it would stop coaches from moving if all the other rules stay in place.

The only real solution in my opinion is (1) to not have an early signing day, (2) to make rules about tampering during the season (which for all teams would be through the national title game), and (3) allow six weeks between the allowable period to hire another team’s coach and the one and only national signing day.  The teams who lose a coach and opt not hire a current head coach should still have times to find a replacement and get their new staffs organized in time for recruits to make really good decisions knowing the head coach, coordinator, and school.  Only knowing the school isn’t good enough if you really care about players and you’re not just trying to get clicks from angry Notre Dame fans.

Another person who tried to add fuel to the fire was Lou Holtz, who tried to act like leaving Notre Dame was a huge insult to Notre Dame.  If you don’t remember, Lou Holtz was the guy who left Notre Dame at the age of 59 after 11 seasons, a stark contrast from Kelly’s age of 60 and his departure after 12 seasons.  Holtz then decided he wanted a new challenge of coaching in the SEC, which is also completely different because of reasons. He may claim it was OK because he didn’t go to another team immediately. To me, it’s more selfish to leave to have months for yourself than it is to immediately begin to devote your energies to another group of young men.

I could make fun of bad takes all day long, but I don’t want to be mean and I don’t want to promote their stupidity. I’m not worried about Holtz’s media presence going forward. Although I can’t stand the whole Notre Dame football scene, I have some sympathy for how players and fans may feel right now. I know when they go on about how mediocre or morally deficient Kelly is or how great first time head coach Marcus Freeman is (he may be, but no one really knows yet), they’re really overcompensating for a sudden feeling of insecurity.

Anyway, for a more rational analysis, I recommend this Fox Sports clip of Doug Gottleib. I also thought Rich Eisen, Marcellus Wiley, and Stephen A. Smith (of all people) had reactions worth hearing. I intentionally mention people without any loyalties toward LSU.

I’ve even seen some comments from LSU fans saying we were disappointed when Saban left.  After Katrina, the Saints played the Dolphins in Tiger Stadium.  The biggest cheer all day was when Nick Saban was announced. 

On October 30, 2005, Nick Saban walks the sidelines at Tiger Stadium less than 10 months after his last game with the Tigers. Saban would return again just over three years later as the head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Saban won both the game above over the Saints and the 2008 game over the Tigers. 2010 is still the only instance of Saban losing in Tiger Stadium since he left LSU. His next scheduled trip to Baton Rouge is November 5. He also defeated Kelly’s Irish in the 2012 and 2020 seasons.

LSU fans were sad that Christmas 2004 (which I think was the day Saban decided) and New Year’s 2005 (not to mention the way LSU lost the game that day), but it wasn’t this kind of anger.  Saban probably would have had to stay 15 years to become the all-time winningest coach.  I don’t think many would have begrudged him leaving after that.  Even given that he left after 5 years, people only got angry and hateful toward Saban when he went to Alabama.  If Kelly had gone to USC, then I would relate.  I think the real reason we see the anger from Notre Dame fans is it kind of rubs their noses in it that they’re not this great college program that people will sacrifice tens of millions of dollars just for the privilege of being there. 

I will talk about why the common agent might matter in other blogs.

Anyway, this says absolutely nothing negative about Kelly’s character.  Unless it’s proven that he lied about a large number of things or a large number of conclusions about reported facts are not as they appear, I don’t see any legitimate reason for the negative attention.  I think Notre Dame hopes with the favorable media they get, they can unfairly poison recruits against Kelly.  LSU fans might not have cared about Kelly a week ago, but we shouldn’t let them.

2021 Week 12 Top 25

I tried to change something at the last minute last week, and that messed things up for this week.  I don’t like when there are dramatic shifts from one week to the next.  According to the original top 25 last week, I created some unnecessary changes and then in a few cases there were dramatic changes back this week.  I shouldn’t have tried to intervene and temporarily alter my formula last week, so I took the unusual step of changing the rankings for last week.

Redoing the previous final rankings is why I couldn’t get this out sooner, but it’s here now.

Michigan did not lose last week, but the Wolverines got relatively few points for beating Maryland.  This allowed other teams to pass them up.

Oklahoma St. beat Texas Tech, which is a good but not great opponent.  I think it was more helpful that Baylor has now won five of six since losing to the Cowboys and that Boise St. has won four games in a row. 

Also, Cincinnati is still feeling a negative effect from their games against Indiana, Notre Dame, and Navy.  Although when the Bearcats play East Carolina next week, the Navy/East Carolina game won’t really matter, for now it hurts Cincinnati that the Pirates won.  Notre Dame didn’t slip enough in points to fall a spot (especially without Michigan gaining very much), but their value as a win went down and will go down again.  Indiana still only has a single win against an FBS opponent.

Although Alabama beat a decent team in Arkansas, many SEC teams took a hit to their respective strengths of schedule this past week, so the win was not quite enough to put the Tide ahead of the Bearcats.  Auburn is slightly better than East Carolina, so I do expect the Tide to move up with a win.

C.J. Stroud threw for 6 touchdowns (all in the first half) and 432 yards with and only 3 incompletions in 35 attempts for the game. Three different receivers had over 100 receiving yards. Ohio St. also had over 200 rushing yards.

Ohio St. shot up in many rankings because of their margin of victory over Michigan St., but as much as that helped, don’t forget that they lost to Oregon.  So it hurt the Buckeyes in my rankings that the Ducks lost.  It will probably help the playoff ranking though, because they intentionally lowered Ohio St. for losing to Oregon given that Oregon had the same number of losses.  With this logic (not mine), it’s better to lose to 2-loss Oregon than 1-loss Oregon.  None of this really matters if they beat Michigan and Wisconsin.  I don’t see any scenario where that wouldn’t be enough to put Ohio St. in the top 4.  Same thing if Michigan beats Ohio St. and Wisconsin.

I didn’t investigate why Appalachian St. went up so much, but I believe it’s because of prior opponents such as U. Miami and Coastal Carolina.  The Mountaineers have a much better strength of schedule than UL-Lafayette.  The reason the “weighted” ratings are so named is they provide extra points as the scores of the best opponents improve, so it’s harder to see the direct correlation between what happened last week and the new ratings.  Also, the loss to Texas hurts UL-Lafayette (who didn’t play Coastal Carolina) more every week.  The Ragin’ Cajuns play the Mountaineers on Championship Saturday anyway, so they can confirm if they really are better.

The only other movement that may seem a little strange is San Diego St. dropping three spots.  The Aztecs played UNLV, so they didn’t get many points from that, and other teams were able to pass them.  There was a similar logic to Texas A&M falling two spots.

Anyway, this is basically the formula I’m going to follow the rest of the year.  The only slight tweak is that it’s not a perfect average between the weighted and unweighted ratings, the latter of which make up maybe 55% of the overall rating.  I could change the weighted formula so the bonus points aren’t so high, but it’s just easier to do it this way.

I noticed based on the Massey comparison site that I give the majority of the MAC better ratings than the other ratings represented on Massey’s site (at least as of Sunday evening). I double-checked every team to see if there was any problem and couldn’t find one.

rank	team	last
1	Georgia	1
2	Notre Dame	2
3	Oklahoma St.	6
4	Cincinnati	4
5	Alabama	5
6	Ohio St.	7
7	Michigan	3
8	Wisconsin	10
9	Ole Miss	12
10	B. Young	9
11	UTSA	15
12	Baylor	16
13	Oklahoma	18
14	Iowa	14
15	Michigan St.	11
16	App. State	22
17	Boise St.	19
18	Wake Forest	8
19	UL-Lafayette	20
20	SDSU	17
21	Oregon	13
22	Utah	25
23	Texas A&M	21
24	Purdue	24
25	Houston	—

Out of Rankings: (23) Utah St.

1-130 computer ratings

2021 Week 11 Top 25

NOTE: These rankings have been redone, so some of this commentary is moot. I had subtracted extra points for losses, but upon reflection, I believe consistency is a better approach. The main team that I thought justified doing so only moved a couple of spots anyway.

I spent a lot of time considering what the best approach is for this week. When in doubt, I think it’s better to follow the recommendations given to me by incorporating what I call the weighted formula of my ratings. Rather than giving each team a score based on wins relative to strength of schedule and a set amount for beating or losing to a team of a certain quality and leaving it at that, the weighted formula gives additional credit for beating very good teams.

I do think the less “big” games don’t get enough attention though (such as the “conventional wisdom” regarding teams like Oregon… more on that in a moment), so I only consider the weighted ratings as part of the overall picture. I think it’s too distorted to look at them by themselves. The overall rating is a sort of average between the two placed on a 10-point scale. Since Georgia is the clear #1 in both, I set their value at 10 exactly. I think this makes it easier for an outside observer to understand what the numbers mean.

In hindsight, I probably shouldn’t have let Alabama go up so many spots last week. I didn’t even look up their opponent this week. Although they went almost down to where they were before (New Mexico St. isn’t much more valuable than a bye week), I decided to only drop the Tide one spot below last week. Arkansas (Alabama’s next opponent) is a good bit better than SMU (Cincinnati’s opponent) or Texas Tech (Oklahoma St.’s opponent). Weird coincidence that all three are playing former Southwest Conference teams. Arkansas would be #25 if I strictly followed the computer.

Ohio St. is the other team I decided to keep the Tide ahead of. The Buckeyes have the best pair of opponents for the last two weeks of the regular season of any team; but with the degree of difficulty in winning both (and the fact that one is currently ahead), I think it’s fair to keep them where they are. I don’t mind if Ohio St. makes a leap after one or both wins.

Although neither opponent is bad, Cincinnati has the second-worst pair of opponents among teams that I think should be under consideration for the playoff.

The worst pair of opponents belongs to Notre Dame. I think the Irish would beat Georgia Tech and Stanford even if their coaches and top players stayed home.

So given the weakness of Cincinnati’s and Notre Dame’s remaining schedules (they get even worse when you consider Notre Dame will not be invited to a conference championship and Cincinnati will play the American West champion) and given the likelihood of at least one loss for Ohio St. in the coming few weeks, I thought it was good to keep them where they are for now.

Why keep Notre Dame so high though? One reason is although Michigan is better than Ohio St. right now, I am not confident enough in the Wolverines beating Ohio St. to put the Wolverines #2. Alabama would be too high relative to their computer rating to be #2 and also has an above-average chance of losing. Oklahoma St. has too high of risk of losing “Bedlam” and/or the Big XII championship. In short, I’m comfortable keeping Notre Dame where they are because (although I expect them to slip) they’ve already beaten the several teams most likely to beat them. Michigan and Oklahoma St. haven’t even played the single respective teams most likely to beat them.

Kyren Williams of Notre Dame stretches for a 20-yard touchdown that put the Irish up 21-0 before halftime on Saturday in Charlottesville. Williams led all rushers for 70 total yards. Notre Dame may have peaked relative to other teams, but I believe they’re a deserving #2 at the moment.

Oregon did a little bit better with the weighted rankings, but there is only so much credit I’m willing to give for a single game. They play fairly good (but not great) opponents in the final weeks, but I don’t see the Ducks joining what I think the Playoff conversation should be without significant upsets, such as Notre Dame or Cincinnati losing one of those games, such as Michigan losing to Maryland and then beating Ohio St., such as a loss by Alabama, such as a 2- or 3-loss team winning the Big XII. Every team in front of them doesn’t have to lose but a lot do.

One reason teams like Oregon are higher now is that I decided to punish a little more for losses. Wisconsin has three, so that’s why the Badgers have fallen despite being a very good team in recent weeks. (The Buckeyes shouldn’t exactly be cocky against them either.) The Badgers also don’t have wins over particularly impressive teams, which is a limitation in the weighted formula.

Texas A&M also has three losses now. Like Oregon, the Aggies do have the one impressive win. Also like Oregon, one struggles to be even mildly impressed with the other wins. They beat Auburn (who now has 4 losses, and Bama would make 5) at home; but LSU (who may well finish with 7 losses) should have done the same and Mississippi St. dominated at Auburn (in the second half anyway). TAMU’s non-divisional schedule is hard to be impressed with: Kent St., Colorado (whom they only beat 10-7), New Mexico, Missouri, South Carolina, and Prairie View. Anyway, the reasons for their fall go a lot deeper than losing to Ole Miss. A couple of weeks ago, A&M went up 10 spots in one week. In hindsight, that shouldn’t have happened.

The Aggies remain ahead of Arkansas and Mississippi St., the other two opponents who beat them. This was regardless of whether I rigidly followed the computers, but I did decide for the purposes of the transition to keep A&M ahead of the newly added teams. Usually I don’t have transitions like this so late in the season, but I usually do a lot of things that I haven’t been able to do. It’s been a weird couple of years… in these challenging times, etc.

rank team last
1 Georgia 1
2 Notre Dame 2
3 Michigan 4
4 Cincinnati 5
5 Alabama 3
6 Oklahoma St. 6
7 Ohio St. 7
8 Wake Forest 12
9 B. Young 8
10 Wisconsin 11
11 Michigan St. 13
12 Ole Miss 17
13 Oregon 15
14 Iowa 16
15 TX-San Anton’ 14
16 Baylor 19
17 San Diego St. 18
18 Oklahoma 10
19 Boise St. 24
20 UL-Lafayette 22
21 Texas A&M 9
22 App. State —
23 Utah St. —
24 Purdue 20
25 Utah —

Out of top 25: (21) Penn St.. (23) Auburn, (25) Pittsburgh

2021 Weeks 9 and 10 Top 25

Week 9

As I mentioned in the last blog, I was coming back from vacation this week. I was able to get the computer ratings for last week done, but it was too late to write a blog. With the complications of coming back and my other obligations in life, I wasn’t able to feel caught up on work enough to even start working on the ratings (for Week 9) until after 5 on Friday.

I did want to make a couple of comments about last week. I think after Georgia, it was more appropriate to list the best few major undefeated ahead of Notre Dame and Michigan. Michigan had lost to Michigan St., so that part was obvious. I guess the computer was trying to tell me something, but it seemed like a good idea at the time.

This was what I considered to be the top 10 going into Week 10:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan St.
3. Wake Forest
4. Michigan
5. Cincinnati
6. Notre Dame
7. Ohio St.
8. Alabama
9. Oklahoma
10. Oklahoma St.

Wake Forest was already in the top 3 of the computer in Week 8, so I didn’t do anything special there. Michigan St. and Cincinnati were placed ahead of teams they beat. Since Oklahoma didn’t beat any really good teams in a single game AND doesn’t have a series of good wins (and struggled in some of their poorer wins), I didn’t move them ahead of anyone by virtue of being undefeated. By the way, expect Cincinnati to fall down on my list even if they don’t lose.

Michigan St. RB Kenneth Walker III (9) runs through the secondary in the second half in East Lansing on October 30. Walker ran for nearly 200 yards in the game. The Spartans then played Purdue, apparently the worst possible opponent after a big win.

I understand the argument that if two teams are roughly similar, you put the head-to-head winner first. That’s part of the reason why Michigan St. and Cincinnati were ahead of Notre Dame and Michigan. That logic doesn’t apply to Oregon and Ohio St. The computer separated the two by 8 spots (now 9). Losing to a team that’s 7-1 should hurt a lot less than losing to a team that was 3-5 going into Week 10 (and now has a sixth loss), and the quality of wins are also not really close even with Oregon having the one good one. I don’t think there are any other good teams in the Pac-12. “Fair to middling” basically describes the whole conference apart from Oregon and winless Arizona. The rest had between 2 and 5 wins going into the week.

“Why play the game” is a non-argument. As a result of playing the game, Oregon is in the top 20 and Ohio St. is not in the top 5. Why give one week more importance than the other 8? I guess that’s not as simple and cliché, so not as many people will mindlessly repeat it.

Forty percent of the top 50 teams in Week 9 either had a bye or a loss, so there was some turnover as the natural sorting-out process takes place. Also, this was the first week where no team had an extra playing week due to having played in “week zero”, so that helps make the ratings more in line with quality of play. Except for Army, who has an extra playing week after conference championships to make up for two byes so far, all teams had either 8 or 9 playing weeks going into Week 10.

Beyond the top 10 I just followed the same order as the computer had going into this week (meaning Week 10). You can go to the ratings page or just determine what last week’s list looked like with the “previous” column below.

Hopefully the rest of the season and next year will be back to normal. I don’t usually have two full vacations during football season, but they were both a long time in the making. Even though the “15 days to flatten the curve” was nearly 20 months ago, I’m also still feeling a domino effect from that in both personal and work schedules.

Week 10

Moving onto the current week, I know Alabama jumped what might seem like an inordinate number of spots for beating (not very impressively) LSU, but the Tigers are better than Indiana (Michigan’s opponent), Nebraska (Ohio St.’s opponent), and Tulane (Cincinnati’s opponent). Michigan St. and Wake Forest both lost, so that accounts for all 5 spots. With the amount of data we now have as far as wins and losses, how impressive a game was on the field or in the final score doesn’t really matter at this point.

It also helps Alabama that Texas A&M has played well since their meeting with the Tide. The Aggies had another one of the more significant gains after beating Auburn, another team LSU finished one score behind, by the way.

Although Navy isn’t a great opponent either, Notre Dame was a solid enough #2 despite the loss to Cincinnati earlier in the season. I didn’t think it made sense to unconditionally keep Cincinnati ahead based on that one game. It also doesn’t help Cincinnati that Indiana just keeps losing. That was their other big foray into major competition. Nonetheless, I did move the Bearcats up two spots from the computer list to keep them at #5. I suspect that we will see other teams like Alabama pass up both the Irish and the Bearcats anyway.

I also moved up Oklahoma from the computer list. The Sooners had lost a few spots due to the bye week. They have two potentially big opponents for points left though, Baylor and Oklahoma St. I would think that they are likely to beat Baylor, but I wouldn’t bet a house on it.

Usually at this point of the season, I don’t make any changes after the top 10, but I did make an exception at #25. If North Carolina St. is able to beat Wake Forest, they’ll be in easily next week. If not, I don’t like for a team to join the top 25 for the first time just to fall out right away for losing to a higher-rated team.

The Wolfpack are overrated in most rankings because they beat an overrated Clemson team back in September. Clemson plays Wake Forest in two weeks, so we will also see what they and the Demon Deacons are really made of. I think it’s safe to say Clemson isn’t really one of the top 10 teams regardless though (they were ranked #9 before the NC St. game).

Although I did complete the Week 9 computer ratings Friday night and the Week 10 ratings Sunday morning, this blog was delayed because I noticed I had a discrepancies with the records. If you’re interested in the technicalities, I’ll elaborate. If not, feel free to skip to the top 25.

Corrections

The only affected team in or close to any computer top 25s was Oklahoma St., but with the way the formula works, they were affected the least. The week they beat Missouri St., it essentially went down as beating a winless FBS team instead (except without hurting the strength of schedule). Since Missouri St. has six wins within the FCS, they count for more than a winless FBS opponent. The Cowboys gained two spots with the change, but I still preferred to put Michigan and Cincinnati ahead below.

Something similar happened with the Wyoming Cowboys. I had to start with A (Air Force) and go all the way down the alphabet to find that mistake. The good news is I was forced to double check every schedule. I did not double check each of the 600+ games that were played to make sure the right opponent was entered (each team has a number designation and on rare occasions I’ll enter the wrong number), but there is an entry for each win and loss. Since there weren’t any positives to counteract the lost win, those Cowboys lost two spots instead.

So this meant there were two teams with extra losses, Florida St. and Tulane. These were affected more dramatically, but thankfully it was two teams that were not even in the top 95, not to mention the top 25. If I give a team an extra loss but don’t set up my spreadsheet for that loss, it results in a disproportionately large number being subtracted.

Notre Dame played Florida St., and both Cincinnati and Oklahoma have played Tulane, so those three have benefited most from these adjustments among teams that I would say are competing for the Playoff. Notre Dame and Cincinnati benefited even more from the increase in opponents’ opponents’ quality.

I think what happened in Tulane’s case was that I lost track of losses because there were so many. Also, I didn’t catch the missing bye week because the Green Wave had played two games on Thursdays (one before and one after the bye). Tulane went up 9 spots to #116.

In Florida St.’s case, I think I accidentally counted the loss to Jacksonville St. twice. Normally an FCS opponent gets put in a separate category, but not when it’s a loss. Maybe the Seminoles deserved two losses for that game anyway. With the correction, Florida St. went up 17 spots to #98.

Final Notes and Week 10 Top 25

Anyway, since all of that is now sorted out and I don’t have any major time constraints, I might see how the weighted ratings look next week. These give teams extra credit for performance against very good opponents. I think they bring my ratings closer to what the Playoff committee looks at.

I don’t like to look at that before this time of year because the top teams are still too volatile (for instance, I’m glad I didn’t give a team a ton of credit for having played Michigan St. or Wake Forest in the Week 9 ratings).

Rank/Team/Last

1	Georgia	1
2	Notre Dame	6
3	Alabama	8
4	Michigan	4
5	Cincinnati	5
6	Oklahoma St.	10
7	Ohio St.	7
8	B. Young	11
9	Texas A&M	19
10	Oklahoma	9
11	Wisconsin	16
12	Wake Forest	3
13	Michigan St.	2
14	TX-San Antonio	17
15	Oregon	14
16	Iowa	13
17	Ole Miss	21
18	San Diego St.	20
19	Baylor	12
20	Purdue	—
21	Penn St.	—
22	UL-Lafayette	—
23	Auburn	15
24	Boise St.	—
25	Pittsburgh	—

Out of rankings: (18) Kentucky, (22) Air Force, (23) Fresno St., (24) Minnesota, (25) Appalachian St.