Week 3 Top 25 & Miss. St. Reaction

I’ll start with LSU-Mississippi St. since there was nothing too earth-shattering elsewhere.  Both the Mississippi St. and Auburn entries of my Rivalry Series are updated.

The game Saturday was similar to some other recent games in the series in that one team dominated the first stretch of the game and another team dominated another.  Examples are when Mississippi St. held onto a win in 2014 and when LSU held onto wins in 2015 and 2016.  The difference here was the switch took place late in the first half rather than late in the second half and that not only did the team who did well initially not hold on, they ended up losing by double digits.

After LSU received the kickoff and earned a couple of first downs before being forced to punt, Mississippi St. scored on its first offensive possession.  The Bulldogs did need to convert a 4th and 1 from their own 22 but did not face a third down after that on the drive.  PK Ben Raybon missed the extra point wide right though.

The LSU defense kept up the pressure on Mississippi St. QB Will Rogers through most of the game in Baton Rouge on Saturday.

None of the next several drives by either team went very far.  The offense would get maybe one or two first downs but would still be forced to punt after that.  The only good opportunity to score was when LSU took over at the Mississippi St. 29 after a fourth-down attempt was unsuccessful, but then Daniels and Williams had miscommunication on a handoff/play action and the resulting fumble was recovered by State.

The first half ended with some drama.  Punter Jay Bramblett (44.8 average, 2 punts inside the 20) had a good kick, nearly 50 yards, but it was returned by Zavion Thomas for 26 yards to give the Bulldogs the ball in LSU territory.  The first play from scrimmage was a 35-yard rush by Dillon Johnson, after which State QB Will Rogers was able to complete a touchdown to Rara Thomas to give the Bulldogs a 13-0 lead.

As had happened at the end of the game against Florida St. two weeks before, LSU’s offensive woes seemed to melt away when they moved into the hurry-up offense after receiving the subsequent kickoff with only 2:14 remaining in the half.  LSU QB Jayden Daniels was 4-4 in the air (albeit for 27 yards) and also ran for 48 yards in the touchdown drive that only lasted 1:28.

It was not apparent at this point that LSU would dominate the rest of the game, but that was an easy place to draw the line as far as a turning point in hindsight as LSU would only give up three points after that.

After Mississippi St. had to punt after one first down to open the second half, Daniels picked up right where he left off.  At least this worked to lead LSU from its own 13 to field goal range, at which time he threw three incompletions; but at least the field goal was good, making the score 13-10.

Another good return by Mississippi St. (which was even better before a penalty cost them about 60 yards) did shift the momentum back somewhat.  After the Bulldogs converted 3^rd-and-longs, it was like the LSU defense went into lockdown mode.  Mississippi St. was forced to settle for a field goal on fourth and 16, returning the lead to 6.  The Bulldogs would not get another first down until the last few minutes of the game though.

The LSU offense wasn’t so dominant right away though.  After only one first down on the next drive (one of Daniels’s longer passes, for 15 yards), the Tigers went for it on fourth down from midfield, and it was a rather weak incompletion.  The Bulldogs’ next drive ended the exact same way after no first downs.  Then Daniels engineered one first down in the air before the LSU offense stalled yet again.

This time, they punted, and Austin Williams could not handle it.  It was recovered by the LSU long snapper Slade Roy who had made it downfield and was watching the attempted catch.  This gave LSU a first and goal.  After a false start backed them up, it took three rushing plays, but Daniels kept the ball himself on the second two and bounced around and into the end zone on third down giving LSU its first lead of the game on the second play of the fourth quarter.

Even though the field position wasn’t great on the next drive, the confidence seemed to carry over.  LSU would convert a 3^rd-and-5, 3^rd-and-1, and 3^rd-and-3 all in the air.  On the subsequent 3^rd-and-10, Daniels completed another pass, to RB Josh Williams; but it was not enough for a first down.  Despite the failure on fourth down earlier and despite the fact that it was probably a makable field goal, LSU went for it.  They were rewarded when a jump ball was caught by WR Malik Nabers (the game’s leading receiver) for 27 yards.  Williams then punched in the touchdown to put LSU up 8.

Rogers then threw three straight incompletions for the Bulldogs, leading to another punt.  LSU was forced into a 3^rd-and-8 on the next set of downs, but Daniels still seemed to maintain the same confidence and ran for the first down this time.  The next play after that, even though they got a breather with an injury timeout, the State defense seemed helpless as RB Armoni Goodwin ran up the middle for 47 yards, giving the Tigers the final margin of 31-16.  Jay Ward had a key interception on the next drive to end the last meaningful threat by the Bulldogs.

Armoni Goodwin’s run here helped to put the game away.

For the game, Mississippi St. was only 3/14 on third down and 1/4 on fourth down.  LSU was only 6/15 on third down but converted 6 of the last 7.  The Tigers’ only fourth down attempts were the two I mentioned, and one was converted.

This was the second straight game against major-conference competition when LSU scored 20 points or more in the last 15:08 of the game (41 total).  This compares to a total of 13 points combined in the two games in the first 44:52.   It would have been easier to explain if LSU had waited 8 more seconds to score a touchdown against Florida St., but you get the idea.  LSU also had the ball for 11 minutes and 20 seconds of the fourth quarter.  Maybe for the next SEC game they should scrimmage for 30-40 minutes before the game starts.  If Auburn (see Rivalry Series) plays like they did against Penn St., it may not be necessary though.

On that note, I’ll move on to discussion of the top 25…

Top 25 Discussion

I will be on vacation next week, so even though it’s early in the season to even look at potential computer ratings, I wanted to start incorporating them now so there is a better transition into next week’s ranking.  Then in the following two weeks rankings start to become completely objective.

So that explains some of the teams that fell In the rankings without losing or even necessarily playing badly.  For instance, Oklahoma St. has only played two FBS opponents and neither of those has a win over another FBS team.  They didn’t have to win at the last minute, but they didn’t beat those teams by impressive scores either.  The Cowboys have a week off before facing Baylor the next week.  Even if they win that one, I don’t see any way they will be able to substantiate a high ranking even then.  TCU also has a bad early schedule.

In my trial run of the computer rankings, there were 4 top-25 teams from the Pac-12.  I didn’t see any reason to exclude any of the four from this list even though only one was ranked going into the week.  In light of Oregon’s win over BYU, maybe that’s proof that Georgia is just that good, and I shouldn’t have dropped the Ducks out of the top 25 for that loss even though I was initially skeptical of the Bulldogs’ being nearly as good as last year.  Of the four, I’m still most skeptical of USC, but I ranked the Trojans a few spots ahead of the Beavers (settle down) because they had a relatively easy time against Fresno St., a common opponent.  I was also impressed by Washington’s win over Michigan St., who has a lot back from last year.

Washington WR Ja’Lynn Polk brings in a touchdown pass in the first half in Seattle on Saturday, a good day for the Pac-12.

I didn’t rank Penn St. because I think Auburn is great, but they’re not a cupcake, and having three wins over FBS opponents puts the Nittany Lions in select company at this point.  Syracuse (whose best win is 1-2 Louisville) is the only unranked team below that you can say that about.

The only huge step up I didn’t cover is North Carolina St., which did have a narrow win over East Carolina in Week 1; but it’s a win that looks pretty good right now. With the win over Texas Tech last week, the Wolf Pack has one of the best two-win combinations, especially for both wins to be out of conference.

I think the rest is easy enough to understand.

Here are a few undefeated teams to watch who for now are not ranked but could be if they keep winning and as the rankings become more objective: UCLA (didn’t like the South Alabama game, but margin of victory doesn’t count for much later in the season), Indiana, Florida St., Tulane, James Madison, Duke, Syracuse, Washington St., and Kansas.

Some teams who are in position to bounce back from early losses are Illinois, Wyoming, Mississippi St., Liberty, UL-Lafayette, SMU, Iowa, and East Carolina.

LSU isn’t on that second list right now, but obviously if Mississippi St. and Florida St. continue to do well, the Tigers will have a good chance once SEC play resumes.  I’m just not sure LSU will look great in the computers even with wins in the next two games (a win at Jordan-Hare would be a great step, but it won’t necessarily mean anything in the computer).  The Tigers are still very average in FBS at this point given how many teams are in the following categories: no losses at all, one loss to a team that (for now) appears better than Florida St., one loss that might be worse but with a win or wins that look better than LSU’s wins.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Georgia	1
2	Alabama	2
3	Ohio St.	3
4	Clemson	4
5	Michigan	6
6	Ole Miss	7
7	Oklahoma	10
8	Kentucky	11
9	Arkansas	8
10	N Carolina St.	16
11	Oregon	—
12	Washington	—
13	Oklahoma St.	9
14	Michigan St.	5
15	Cincinnati	13
16	BYU	12
17	Maryland	20
18	USC	—
19	TCU	15
20	Wake Forest	18
21	Baylor	19
22	Oregon St.	22
23	Tennessee	23
24	Iowa St.	25
25	Penn St.	—
—	Mississippi St.	14
—	U. Miami	17
—	Marshall	21
—	Texas Tech	24

Week 2 Top 25 and LSU (P)review

LSU Recap and Preview

I will not be giving any details about the Bulldogs, just about what is going on with LSU. I have updated my Rivalry Series blog in light of the upcoming game though.

LSU has either lost to or barely beat the Bulldogs in every game recently except for the two years in which Joe Burrow was the starting quarterback.  If we win at all, I’ll be satisfied.  If we win somewhat comfortably, I’ll be very encouraged.  A loss won’t necessarily be devastating, but LSU should beat unranked SEC opponents at home (even though I think the Bulldogs should be ranked) even in a mediocre year.  I know it’s easier said than done, but it should be an expectation.  

Malik Nabers carries the ball in the fourth quarter last year in Starkville. Nabers was the leading wide receiver in the game against Southern on Saturday.

One of the LSU shows found the biggest LSU naysayer they could.  Even he picked LSU to win this game (and lose all the other SEC games).  So while I do think the Bulldogs are underrated, I won’t be resting easy if LSU loses. 

Usually I’d barely mention an FCS opponent, but I hope it gave the coaches more data to make better decisions in the future.  What was done in the Southern game may also be a bit of a preview of what they’ll try to do against Mississippi St.  I’m not going to preview the Bulldogs though.

LSU did shore up some concerns in the game against Southern even though obviously what works against Southern may not work in ANY future games.  I think we can compare it to an NFL preseason game.  Cuts to an NFL roster and to some extent decisions about plays and the depth chart are made based on performances against opposition players who themselves often aren’t going to be playing a whole lot in the NFL.  Similarly, most Southern players could not get meaningful playing time at an SEC school (though a couple of former FCS players play for Florida St. and at least one plays for LSU).  But I think going through the motions of a game against at least some competitive athletic talent can tell you a little bit. 

It certainly gives you a basis for comparison of one player to another.  It provides some data points by which to determine who plays where in future games.  Coaches have a better idea of whom they can trust during the game.  You can’t always know that from practices and scrimmages alone.

I don’t know if the new center Charles Turner will be better than Garrett Dellinger, the center in the Florida St. game; but I didn’t notice any problems with snaps, and the coaches seem to like how he communicated.  Dellinger will still get a lot of playing time, but it will just be at guard instead.  I don’t think anyone is pretending we know how well Turner will block an SEC defensive lineman at center because he did an adequate job against Southern, but they could see how he handled the game environment and worked with his teammates.

Jayden Daniels did leave the game early enough that I think we were able to get some information about where he is compared to the backup Nussmeier.  Kelly said before the Florida St. game that they were 1-A and 1-B rather than 1 and 2 on the depth chart.  I’m pretty sure that was a lie.  We didn’t see Nussmeier at all in the Florida St. game even after the Tigers.

LSU only came up with 3 points in the first half; and although Nussmeier ended up throwing for more yards against Southern, he completed only 59% of his passes compared to Daniels’s 91%.  Daniels did not commit a turnover in either game, and Nussmeier threw two interceptions. Daniels threw three touchdowns, and Nussmeier threw none.  I don’t always think QBR is that great of a stat, but when one guy is near 100 and the other is under 20, I think that sums it up pretty well.

Again, I’m not banking on this counting for anything; but the starters did absolutely all they could.  It has been 129 years since LSU first played intercollegiate football, and the Tigers had never scored 37 points in a quarter before.  It only took 40 seconds of the second quarter to get to 44 points.  As for the defense, Southern didn’t score until one of those Nussmeier interceptions was returned late in the third quarter.  The LSU defense didn’t give up points until about 8 minutes remained in the game.  That was probably the third or fourth team by then. 

Micah Baskerville (23) blocks a punt late in the first quarter against Southern in Baton Rouge on Saturday.

Some players who weren’t even starters in the first game played great.  For instance, the game ball went to Micah Baskerville, who blocked a punt (which resulted in a safety) and returned an interception for a touchdown.  I’m told he was only in about a dozen plays against Florida St.  I don’t care if it was against easy competition, doing both of those things in the same season is hard to do, not to mention the same quarter.  Freshman 5-star recruit Harold Perkins, Jr., whom LSU just barely kept from going to Texas A&M, had a good game too with 7 tackles.

Malik Nabors was relieved of punt-return duties after two turnovers in that role against Florida St., but it was nice to see him score a touchdown on one pass and go for 60 yards on another.  Even if the latter were his only catch, Nabors would have led both teams in receiving yards.  It’s good that the ball was spread around by both quarterbacks too.  Hopefully it will keep the receivers more engaged and facilitate better communication and trust than we saw against Florida St.

Also, importantly, LSU had no major injuries and a couple of key players are actually available against Mississippi St. when they were not against Southern.  This includes RB Jon Emery, Jr., and DE BJ Ojulari.  DE Ali Gaye was suspended for a half for targeting, so he will be back as well.

Top 3

This first section ties into last week about certain SEC opponents looking more like winnable games than they did at first blush, but it’s also relevant as to why I’ve made a change at #1.  I did think it was a little unfair that Alabama had to play Georgia in a rematch, but maybe it was the SEC championship game that was the aberration last year.

Alabama has rebounded from looking vulnerable and even losing in September before; but even if by some miracle LSU had been able to convince Saban to come back (there is a contingent of LSU fans who had been trying to orchestrate that for 15 years… I think they finally gave up now that Kelly has a 9-figure contract and Saban is 70 years old), we probably would have had to start thinking about the future by now anyway.  Alabama may still win the national title, but the close win over Texas can be added to the following somewhat concerning close games last season (with final record of opponent and margin of victory):

7-6 Florida, 2 points

8-4 Texas A&M, LOST by 3 points

6-7 LSU, 6 points

9-4 Arkansas, 7 points

6-7 Auburn, 2 points

I haven’t changed my mind about Oregon (Georgia’s big win) being overrated in preseason.  I would have liked to have seen more Georgia Bulldog offense against Samford, but the defense can’t do anything better than a shutout. 

The reason I made the change is that Alabama won by a single point (and as I mentioned probably deserved to lose), and obviously the shine is taken off of Ohio St.’s win over Notre Dame given the Marshall game.  A team can win by one possession in a fluke, but the Irish had to score in the final moments of the game just to make it close.  So that’s really a similar type of game to what the Irish did in Columbus.

Remainder of Top 25

The rest of the top 10 remained intact.  Kentucky had a decisive road win against Florida, so that’s why the Wildcats moved up so much.  BYU’s win over Baylor was at home in overtime, and Baylor was one of the teams I was doubtful about (along with Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St.).  The Cougars still got credit for beating a ranked team but not as much as what Kentucky did.

Apart from Baylor (whom I didn’t want to drop double digits for an understandable close loss), the rest of the top 20 is made up of teams who moved up by default.

Marshall is obvious.  Oregon St. may not be, but I had Boise St. as one of the top unranked teams going into the season, and the Beavers beat the Broncos handily in Week 1.  Last week, Oregon St. went on the road to Fresno St. (who won 10 games last year) and won, albeit in a close contest.

Oregon St. WR Silas Bolden escapes a Fresno St. defender during a touchdown play in the first half in Fresno on Saturday.

Tennessee wasn’t great against Pittsburgh, but it’s still a Power 5 road win, so I gave the Vols the Panthers’ former spot.

Houston was also on my waiting list in preseason, so I went ahead and gave Texas Tech a spot for beating the Cougars.

Iowa St. didn’t look a whole lot better than South Dakota St. had against Iowa (both games in Iowa City); but the Jackrabbits were one of the best FCS teams last year.  As for the Cyclones, while they had needed the Hawkeyes to miss a field goal to escape with the win, I was still impressed by the defense.  Iowa’s one score was on a very short field.

I give Texas A&M some credit for their defense against Appalachian St. (who put up 40 points in one quarter against North Carolina after all) as well and considered leaving the Aggies in the Top 25 instead.  Although I do think the Aggies would likely beat the Cylones, 2-0 beats 1-1.  Texas A&M will go ahead of the Cyclones with a win this weekend anyway, so I also don’t mind giving Iowa St. the benefit of the doubt for now.

Speaking of the Aggies, I learned a couple of facts I wanted to share. (1) Jimbo Fisher makes more than 20 times as much per year as Appalachian St. head coach Shawn Clark. (2) Texas A&M has 56 players who were either 4- or 5-star recruits out of high school, but Appalachian St. has just 1.

Rank	Team	Last
1	Georgia	3
2	Alabama	1
3	Ohio St.	2
4	Clemson	4
5	Michigan St.	5
6	Michigan	6
7	Ole Miss	7
8	Arkansas	8
9	Oklahoma St.	9
10	Oklahoma	10
11	Kentucky	20
12	B. Young	17
13	Cincinnati	13
14	Miss. St.	16
15	TX Christian	18
16	N. Carolina St.	19
17	U. Miami	21
18	Wake Forest	22
19	Baylor	11
20	Maryland	25
21	Marshall	—
22	Oregon St.	—
23	Tennessee	—
24	Texas Tech	—
25	Iowa St.	—
—	Texas A&M	12
—	Notre Dame	14
—	Iowa	15
—	Pittsburgh	23
—	Florida	24

Maybe the Grass Isn’t Greener After All

I don’t know what the rankings will be yet with all the upheaval, but I couldn’t help but be amused by some of the results over the weekend.  It was a bad day to be a fan of a ranked team from Texas (I’ll mention the two big ones, but Houston and Baylor also lost), and it was a good day for Sun Belt teams to notch some historical road wins.  (I only recently realized Marshall had joined the Sun Belt after previous stints in the MAC and CUSA.)

Bryce Young of Alabama miraculously avoids a safety against Texas in Austin on Saturday.  He should have been flagged for intentional grounding, but he was not.  The Tide eventually defeated the Longhorns 20-19

The grass was really looking greener to LSU fans who wanted Jimbo Fisher or Billy Napier, for instance.  I think Notre Dame fans (even if they are genuine about having grown tired of Kelly) were insecure about their choice of Marcus Freeman, who had never been a head coach before; but their way of expressing it in most cases was to attack Brian Kelly any way they could and pretend to be overjoyed that he had been replaced.

Last week (last two sections in the link below), I wrote about reminding myself as an LSU fan not to take anything for granted.  Wearing the jersey and helmet and playing in Tiger Stadium might all but guarantee you beat Southern, but it doesn’t guarantee you anything against an SEC schedule. 

LSU/FSU Reactions and Season Outlook

More on Nebraska

I also mentioned in a separate blog how unless you were Oklahoma, Nebraska was pretty much untouchable for most of the 1970s and 1980s.  I think there is a lesson here for some of the LSU fans who are always unhappy with whomever the coach is. 

Rivalry Series: LSU vs. Florida St.

I didn’t mention it because they didn’t play LSU after that, but the Huskers kept it going through the 90s (I found out they had the second-best record among FBS teams in the decade after Florida St.) and had some good teams in the early 2000s.  After having two losing records (both on the recent end) from 1961 to 2014, the Huskers have only finished with a winning record once since then. 

To get to their current situation, they just lost to Georgia Southern, who was playing in the Southern Conference of FCS 10 years ago.  It wasn’t just one fluke loss either.  The Huskers have now lost eight consecutive games against FBS opponents.  The last such game that was a win was over Northwestern, 56-7.  You would have thought that at least the Huskers could stay better than that team, but they lost to the Wildcats at a neutral site just a couple of weeks ago.

After I wrote the above, Nebraska decided to part ways with head coach Scott Frost.  Mickey Joseph, who for whatever reason stayed loyal to Ed Orgeron and LSU from 2017 to 2021 as the wide receivers coach, will step in as the interim head coach.  He was obviously not retained by Brian Kelly but was classy all the way.  I wish him the absolute best of luck in that position.  If he doesn’t end up being a head coach, I wouldn’t be surprised if he returned at some point.

Joseph is the sixth man to coach Nebraska (including interims) since Frank Solich was fired in 2003.  Solich was the last coach to leave Nebraska after successfully avoiding a losing season for his tenure.  Only two men (Bob Devaney and Tom Osborne) coached Nebraska over the 36 seasons before Solich was hired.  There was another LSU connection as former Tigers defensive coordinator Bo Pelini was hired from Les Miles’s staff after the 2007 season.  Let’s just say he experienced mixed reviews, but he has had far and away the best winning percentage and longest tenure since Solich left. 

Another more indirect LSU connection: Solich employed Joe Burrow’s father Jimmy (whom he first hired as a graduate assistant at Nebraska) as defensive coordinator at Ohio from 2005 to 2018.  Solich himself retired after the 2020 season.

Recent Comments by LSU and Notre Dame Fans

Speaking of Joe Burrow, 2018 and 2019 (which his father had retired to witness) had the best combined winning percentage (89.3) of any two back-to-back seasons in LSU history.  Even though I think an average Power 5 head coach could have managed to go over .500 the next two seasons and Orgeron didn’t, it still looks bad that those great seasons only bought him two additional years.  I don’t know who they think is coming to the rescue if they run Kelly out of town without a fair shot at building the program back up.

At least one of the notions they had got knocked down a peg this weekend when Jimbo and Texas A&M lost at home to Appalachian St., a program Les Miles beat easily (with probably his worst team) the year after they upset Michigan in 2007.

Freeman, we were told, had already begun to correct for Kelly’s various misdeeds in recruiting and game strategy even though he started 0-2.  Well, Oklahoma St. (in the bowl last season) and Ohio St. (who beat the Irish in the opener) were certainly much better teams than Florida St. at least.  That last sentence is true enough, but I’m not so sure you could say the same about Marshall.

Marcus Freeman with his players after the home loss to Marshall on Saturday. After Notre Dame led 28-7 a minute before halftime of the Fiesta Bowl last season–Freeman’s first game as head coach–the Irish have been outscored 70-38.

The Jimbo crowd started going nuts last year when the Aggies knocked off Alabama (and LSU struggled in some early games) and then pretended the losses didn’t matter.  I think I prefer the way things have been at LSU.  When we beat Alabama, we’re going places that season.  These are the wins over Alabama since Saban was hired and the season results:

• 2007, National Championship (12-2)
• 2010, won Cotton Bowl to finish 11-2
• 2011, National Runners-up (to Alabama, 13-1)
• 2019, National Championship (15-0)

Texas A&M did go 11-2 in 2012, also winning the Cotton Bowl, but didn’t even keep the Tide from winning the SEC West as LSU at least helped to do all four years above.  Alabama finished fourth in the West in 2010, but they were still very much alive for a berth in the SEC title game (with wins over LSU and Auburn, to whom they would later lose by only a single point) when they visited Tiger Stadium that year.

Though I would take 8-4 before the bowl any kind of way this season, finishing 8-4 despite beating Alabama seems like a waste in your fourth year somewhere like A&M.

Kevin Sumlin, Jimbo’s predecessor, beat Alabama exactly once too.  He had a slightly better record in his first 50 games than what Jimbo has after 50 games with the Aggies.  This is despite the fact that Texas A&M has increased the head coach’s salary by about 50% since Sumlin left.  Almost two years of additional salary was paid to Sumlin to go away.  Jimbo’s most-recent extension takes him through 2031.  This makes his contract very similar to the one Kelly has.  Kelly makes $1 million more in base salary, but I’m not sure how the overall compensation compares.  Regardless, I’ll be interested to see which head coach has more success over the next 10 seasons despite Jimbo’s four-year head start. 

Jimbo Fisher, with former Texas A&M QB Zach Calzada (who is now third string at Auburn), during a similarly disappointing offensive performance in Denver last season

Good and Bad News from the SEC

Anyway, while in a way I’m disappointed that the SEC didn’t look nearly as good this week as it did in Week 1, I am somewhat encouraged by seeing some vulnerability in a few of the teams on LSU’s schedule in addition to Alabama (more on them later in the week) and Texas A&M:

• Tennessee needed overtime to beat Pitt, and that was against a backup QB who seemed like he was playing hurt after the starter had to leave the game.
• Kentucky beat Florida by 10 in the Swamp after the Gators failed to score an offensive point in the last 35 ½ minutes of the game. (Tennessee and Florida are LSU’s only two SEC East opponents.). Oh by the way, yet another contingent of LSU fans (they may overlap with some of the others) was angry that the Tigers didn’t hire Billy Napier, the former coach at UL-Lafayette and new coach at Florida.
• Auburn only beat San Jose St. by 8 points at home after trailing at halftime.

Interestingly, those five teams all had the same home/away status last week as they will against LSU.  So hopefully Alabama and Tennessee continue to have trouble on the road and the others continue to struggle at home.

I’ll have more to say when I post the rankings later in the week.

LSU/FSU Reactions and Season Outlook

I’m sure most who are reading already know all of this, but I’ll provide a short recap for posterity. I will add this blog to the links on the “Rivalry Series” page. I know I’ve been posting something every other day, but don’t expect anything new until Sunday at the earliest. If you missed it, I posted my Top 25 and made some preliminary comments on Tuesday.

Recap

LSU got to the Florida St. 5 on the opening drive before settling for a field goal.  The Tigers got to the 8 two drives later, but a 30-yard field goal attempt was partially blocked.  There were only three LSU drives in the first half other than the one that was ended by the half.  The drive in the middle was a three-and-out, and Florida St. took advantage with a touchdown on a flea-flicker, so the ‘Noles led 7-3.  Toward the end of the half, Maliik Nabers fumbled a punt, but Florida St. turned the ball over on downs on the subsequent possession despite taking over at the LSU 16.  This kept the lead down to 4 at the half.ings got more exciting in the second half. 

Ontaria Wilson went high to catch the flea-flicker as the late-arriving defender went low in the second quarter in the Superdome Sunday. The Seminoles led for the remainder of the game.

Florida St. scored on their first two drives (field goal, then touchdown), interspersed with another LSU three-and-out, to take a 17-3 lead.  LSU and Florida St. exchanged touchdowns on the next two drives.  The Tigers cut the lead to 24-17 on the next drive (their second of the half); but given that the drive took almost five minutes off the clock, only 4:14 was left to play. 

After a first down on the opening play of the next drive, the Seminoles stalled on the next three plays.  So, with 2:!5 left in the fourth quarter, the Seminoles were forced to punt for only the second time all game, and it was fumbled by Nabers yet again.

Florida St. had a third and goal at the 1 yard line with only 1:20 on the clock, but on that play, FSU running back Treshaun Ward didn’t handle the pitch cleanly and fumbled the ball back to LSU.

This is what occasioned the 99-yard drive I mentioned.  That drive almost ended when Mason Taylor caught a pass in the middle of the field.  He was initially ruled out of bounds with one second left, but a replay seemingly showed that his knee touched with two seconds left.  In the NFL, this may have ended the game as the clock would have kept running by rule. 

But a first down stops the clock in college, and the play was whistled dead regardless.  It looked like Taylor’s knee touched with two seconds left; but it was announced that there would be one more play, and no adjustment to the clock was made.  It’s unclear if the LSU center would have been forced to snap the ball within that one second, but we will never know since Florida St. called a timeout before the snap anyway. 

Regardless, on the final play from scrimmage, Jayden Daniels found Jaray Jenkins on a crossing route toward the back of the end zone to make the score 24-23   In another flashback to earlier in the game, the extra point was blocked, ending the game. 

So all the fumble and ensuing drive ended up doing for LSU was to make the score closer.  With LSU’s kicking problems, I wouldn’t have put money on the Tigers winning in overtime anyway.  I also wouldn’t have been confident in LSU converting a second do-or-die two-point conversion play (which is basically the kind of play the touchdown was) either, so I don’t completely fault the coaches for not going for the win.  I did wonder why Kelly instantly raised one finger in the air to indicate kicking the extra point though.

Another key to the game I wanted to mention was Florida St.’s success on third down. The Seminoles went 11 for 17 overall and 4 for 6 on third and long (defined as third and 7 or longer). LSU only converted 5 of 11 overall and 1 of 4 on third and long.

The Big Picture and Additional Reaction

Losing by 1 when the 4 points that were blocked would have covered the spread is nothing like the slap in the face that the 11-point loss to UCLA (after the margin was 18 late in the fourth) or the 22-point loss to Kansas St. (after the margin was 35 late in the fourth) was.  Florida St. isn’t necessarily better than those programs, but LSU was never behind by three or more possessions in this game.

It’s unreasonable to expect to just flip a switch between the last game last year and the first game this year regardless of who the coach was.  Kelly didn’t inherit a well-oiled machine like Les Miles did.  He didn’t even inherit an underachieving (and overworked) squad of veterans like Ed Orgeron did.

The Tigers had a new starting quarterback, a center who had never been a center in an actual game before, and (for most of the second half) two backup defensive ends (Maason Smith was hurt in the first quarter, and Ali Gaye was ejected in the third quarter).  They were also without running back Jon Emery, Jr., who was supposed to be the top returning back going back to last season.  (More on that later.)  This was in addition to replacing most of the rest of the offensive line and most of the secondary in the offseason.

By the way, I disagree with some of the comments that Daniels did terrific, and every drive that ended quickly was someone else’s fault.  I think former LSU and NFL running back Jeremy Hill tackled that narrative well here.  In short, while the offensive line does need work, there were open receivers that Daniels didn’t even look at before scrambling and usually running. The pocket didn’t instantly close around him every play.  I didn’t catch the name on every play and I’m not going to re-watch the game to take notes (once was painful enough), but one of the best receivers at improvising to get open is Jack Bech, and he was only targeted once the whole game.

LSU QB Jayden Daniels runs for a first down in the Superdome on Sunday. Although he ran well and his completion percentage was good, the question remains if he can do enough in the air for consistent offensive success.

Will this year be another 1999 or another 2000?

I think most of those predicting 10 wins or more have now been disabused of that notion, but there are still very good (great may be off the table) and very bad ways this season could go.

Some younger fans may not know this, but there was actually a time before Les Miles.  I want to draw an analogy to something that happened in the beforetimes.  I remember the last time some stick in the mud from the Midwest whom we vaguely remembered facing in a bowl game showed up to coach LSU.  Kelly has tried harder to shake that image than Saban ever did, but the point is Saban didn’t exactly wow everyone with results right away either. 

I really think 2000 was the last season for LSU that was anything like this one going into it.

I would argue the team we saw in January was worse than what Nick Saban inherited in 1999.  In the game before Nick Saban was hired, LSU beat a good Arkansas team, 35-10, under Interim Head Coach Hal Hunter.  LSU did lose 8 games under Gerry DiNardo in 1999; but they were neck-and-neck with some very good teams, and players weren’t deserting the team like it was a sinking ship (it helped that the transfer portal didn’t exist then) or they would have had no chance to beat Arkansas (who’d entered the game at 7-3 after knocking off both reigning SEC divisional champions).  

If LSU had had the same team it had in January all of last season, not only would we have lost every SEC game, I doubt even one of the losses would have been close.

Saban’s first team was able to ease into things.  The first game was a blowout against Western Carolina (whose only two wins were over I-AA opponents).  The second game was against a Houston team that would finish 3-8 (whom the Tigers beat by a pedestrian score of 28-13).  Even with those warmup games, LSU dropped the next two, an understandable loss at Auburn, followed by an upset home loss to UAB. 

UAB’s Rhett Gallego kicks the winning field goal in Baton Rouge in 2000.

As an aside, LSU plays UAB again this year.  Assuming we get past them, Southern, and New Mexico, we probably won’t have lost to a team like UAB in this coach’s first year.  I don’t think there is one game on the SEC schedule (LSU is the only SEC team to lose so far, by the way) that looks as easy to beat as that team should have been given that the two SEC East opponents are Tennessee and Florida.

Anyway, UAB did finish with almost as many wins as LSU had in 2000; but for two teams to be even, a Conference USA team needs to have more wins, not fewer.  After a 41-9 loss to Florida, LSU did have a 4-game SEC winning streak in 2000, but one win was over 2-9 Kentucky and one was over 3-8 Alabama (by two points).  Which two SEC opponents this season are only going to win 2 or 3 games total?  Vanderbilt and South Carolina aren’t on the schedule if either of those were your answer (not saying they won’t do better anyway… Vandy is 1/3 of the way to bowl eligibility actually).

Unfortunately, I think that 1999 season is more similar to what LSU is facing this year.  LSU played three games against teams that didn’t qualify for bowl games and won three games.  They weren’t the same three, but the point is Saban’s four-game improvement in the regular season was partly due to the schedule.  The worst SEC opponent in 1999 was Auburn, which finished 5-6 (so with a modern schedule the Plainsmen probably would have also qualified for a bowl).  There were two one-point losses during the losing streak, and one loss was to the eventual SEC champions (Alabama) by six points on the road.  

So the team did not play dramatically differently overall in Saban’s first year even though he was a dramatically better coach than his predecessor.  Winning three close games rather than losing them is what made the Tigers bowl-eligible rather than 3-8.  What happens in future close games could make a huge difference in the number of wins here also.  I hope the Florida St. game isn’t a sign of things to come with regard to close games (as the loss at Georgia was in 1999); but the Tigers also dropped the first close game in 2000 (UAB), so it doesn’t have to be.

There is one slight advantage of this year compared to that year in that there are still three remaining non-conference games (LSU will likely be favored by multiple touchdowns in all three) whereas there were only three non-conference games total in 1999 with the same number of wins needed to make a bowl (6).

What To Expect

I touched on this earlier, but the chance of a season with double-digit wins went down considerably; but 7 or 8 wins, either of which I’d consider a success and said so before the season, are still realistic if things go well.  I’ll get to what might happen if things don’t go well.

To get a little more into “inside baseball,” I know almost everyone improves from Week 1, but the way this team had to come together in the offseason, I think players will improve faster than most as they get used to one another and learn their roles better.  Maybe Daniels will learn to read a defense before scrambling or Nussmeier will get a shot. 

Also, I do think by the time Emery comes back (he fell behind academically due to COVID, and the NCAA… enough said there), LSU might have a rushing attack other than the quarterback.  His first game will apparently be against Mississippi St.

I’m not being a what the forums call a sunshine pumper though.  Assuming we get past UAB and the other non-conference opponents that remain, I can’t tell you with confidence what three SEC teams we beat to become bowl eligible.  I won’t rest easy about winning a single one in isolation.

I don’t expect Auburn or Florida to be great this year (I barely had Utah ranked, so the win over the Utes [who probably should have won] didn’t drastically change my mind), but it gives me some pause that both games are on the road.  Mississippi St. is a good shot at a win; but except for the two years when Burrow was on the team, LSU has struggled against the Bulldogs since Dak beat them in 2014.  In my estimation, the quality of opponent only goes up from there. 

Maybe the home crowd could put LSU over the top against Ole Miss, Tennessee, or Arkansas.  Another occasional source of late-season success of late has been Texas A&M; but this is less true on the road, where the Tigers haven’t officially won since 2016 (some would say they won the 2018 game more than once).

On the other hand, I wasn’t overwhelmingly confident last year’s LSU team was going to beat #20 Florida or #14 Texas A&M (both of which were needed to become bowl-eligible) last year.  I also don’t remember being confident about LSU in 2000 when they went into a game against #11 Tennessee and another against #13 Mississippi St., but they managed (winning both in OT).  Had the Tigers lost both, they would not have made a bowl game in Saban’s first year. Side note: Tennessee also makes a rare visit to Tiger Stadium this year.

LSU TE Robert Royal catches the winning 25-yard touchdown pass in overtime to upset Tennessee in Baton Rouge in 2000.

Since that season in 2000, we always have had the talent and the fighting spirit (both of which were on display to an extent against Florida St.) needed to win the games we need to win to become bowl eligible (which LSU has been every year since 2000, although it voluntarily absented itself from bowl consideration in 2020), even if that means beating multiple ranked teams.  I’m not taking anything for granted though.  With special teams like that, even if the offense and defense improve, this could well be the year it doesn’t happen. If none of the three areas improve significantly, it could be a repeat of 1999.

2022 Week 1 Top 25

I’ve had some computer problems that have prevented me from writing more and posting blogs when people are most likely to read them.  I have switched browsers for blog-posting; but if that doesn’t work, I may have to go to a new site.  If that happens, I will do my best to post a link here.  You can also follow me on Facebook for updates.  I also have a twitter account @TheBayouBlogger.

I will elaborate further later in the week, but I just wanted to say a few things about the LSU game and some of the reactions.

I HATE how the media is always in competition to say the most dramatic outlandish things after a single game.  There is no accountability for being wrong, they just get more clicks by being dramatic.  If it were up to the media alarmists, Ed Orgeron wouldn’t have made it past the Troy game.  Les Miles wouldn’t have lasted past the loss to Tennessee in 2005. (I don’t remember it being this bad in 2000, but I’ll get to that.)  Oh all problems at LSU aren’t fixed, I guess Brian Kelly stole 10 million dollars!  He should never show his face in public again after a one-point loss to a Power 5 opponent at a neutral site (FSU fans were there in droves, don’t give me that)! He’s blaming everyone but himself when he cited coaching as an issue four times in an 11-minute press conference!  He made a sarcastic comment about how maybe they could have played worse at halftime!

Then every November and December, these same people decry how fast coaches get fired after their fan bases are bombarded with dire negativity after every loss.  Some of them (Colin Cowherd, for instance) even attacked LSU in 2019 (when the Tigers had NO losses all year), saying they weren’t up to snuff because they allowed too many points and yards to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss in garbage time.

Top 25

I don’t like to shake things up too much after one game. Two months from now, I won’t really care about margin of victory; but I think a couple of these teams showed more problems than teams like Notre Dame and Cincinnati showed in losses. All four Division I teams Brian Kelly has coached lost this week.

I think replacing Utah with Florida was obvious, but the game certainly could have gone the other way. Even Oregon might well be a top-25 team. In 2006, Arkansas lost by even more to USC (the defending national runner-up); and the Razorbacks were national-title contenders until late November.

I listed six teams that I thought were good candidates for the last spot in preseason, but Maryland was the only one that played up to expectations. Obviously, the Terps may not be a top-25 team, but there was no obvious candidate to move ahead of them. One team I considered was Penn St., who had a good win at Purdue. Another was Indiana, who beat Illinois after the Illini easily beat Wyoming in “Week 0”, so right now there are seven Big Ten teams in my top 30. Not quite as many as the SEC, but close.

I only have the Bulldogs #3, but they certainly put up the most impressive score of the weekend. Pictured is Kenny McIntosh finding the corner of the end zone for a rushing touchdown during the first half against the Oregon Ducks in Atlanta on Saturday.

Some have said Georgia should be #2, but I think Notre Dame is significantly better than Oregon at the moment. I certainly understand if people who believed Oregon was a top-10 team differ with that assessment.

I think most of the changes are obvious if you just look at the results of a given team. The only one who slipped a little who might not be obvious based on the final score is Kentucky, who won 37-13 over Miami U.; but they only led 13-10 at halftime, and they only out-gained the RedHawks by 53 yards on offense.

Rank	Team	Last
1	Alabama	1
2	Ohio St.	2
3	Georgia	5
4	Clemson	3
5	Michigan St.	6
6	Michigan	8
7	Ole Miss	9
8	Arkansas	11
9	Oklahoma St.	12
10	Oklahoma	13
11	Baylor	14
12	Texas A&M	15
13	Cincinnati	4
14	Notre Dame	7
15	Iowa	10
16	Mississippi St.	19
17	B. Young	17
18	TX Christian	18
19	N. Carolina St.	16
20	Kentucky	18
21	U. Miami	21
22	Wake Forest	22
23	Pittsburgh	23
24	Florida	—
25	Maryland	—
—	Utah	24
—	Oregon	25

i thought it was easier to just include the teams that fell out on the same chart.

Rivalry Series: LSU vs. Florida St.

• Highlights (mostly lowlights for LSU), updated after the 2022 game.
  • Florida St. leads, 8-2 overall, 6-1 in Baton Rouge, and 1-0 in Tallahassee.
  • The two have won one neutral-site game apiece.
  • The games at neutral sites were the only games decided by 4 points or fewer, but Florida St. won by 5 points in both 1979 and 1983. Only those four were decided by single digits.
  • Florida St. had the largest margin of victory and obviously the smallest (39 points in 1990 and 1 point in 2022).
  • The game with the highest point total was LSU’s 55-21 win in 1982.
  • The game with the lowest point total was Florida St.’s 16-0 win in 1980.

(The below was written before the 2022 game. A reaction will be posted in a subsequent blog that will be linked at the “Rivalry Series” page.)

I don’t want to sugarcoat it.  Among teams LSU has played seven times or more, the Tigers’ worst record is against Florida St. 

LSU has won a higher percentage against Alabama (about 33% versus 22%), but the Alabama/LSU percentage is a fairer reflection of the relative strengths of the two programs since they started playing annually in 1964 and played about every other year for a couple of decades before then.

A more analogous series is the one against Nebraska, which was six games (LSU failed to win any but tied one).  In the series against Nebraska, all games took place between 1970 and 1986.  That was not the worst time period for LSU, but it was a very good time period for Nebraska.  The Huskers only lost 21 games in those 17 seasons, and the majority of those losses were to Oklahoma.  Nebraska and Oklahoma won or shared 5 national championships in those years and one of the two played for a national championship in several other years.

All but one of the the LSU/Florida St. games played thus far was played between 1979 and 1991.  These were all before the Seminoles won their first national title in 1993, but it was as Florida St. was arriving on the national scene and (like the LSU/Nebraska series) was far removed from the Tigers’ closest national championships of 1958 and 2003.

While they’re not Alabama or Ohio St., you’re probably used to LSU being among the royalty of college football unless you started watching in the last two years.  But I started following college football just about in time for LSU to have six consecutive losing seasons and eight losing seasons in eleven years.  The beginning of this stretch was when the last three LSU/Florida St. contests took place, and obviously those were also the ones that came closest to the 1993 national championship year for the Seminoles.

1989 to 1991

So I’ll start with those three, the only ones of which I have some recollection.

You wouldn’t have expected any of those three games to be close, but only the 1990 game went completely as expected.  That game was a 42-3 rout by Florida St.

The Tigers played respectably in 1989 in Tiger Stadium, even briefly leading 21-17 in the fourth quarter after being down 17-6 early in the third quarter. However, the Seminoles immediately responded with an 8-play, 73-yard touchdown drive to take the lead for good en route to a 31-21 victory.  LSU had over 200 yards passing in this game, but Tommy Hodson was outshined by Peter Tom Willis, who threw for 301 yards.  Florida St. also gained more than 80 more yards on the ground for 522 yards of offense to LSU’s 362. 

Bobby Bowden, with Casey Weldon (quarterback for the last two), led the Seminoles to all seven victories over the Tigers

In 1991, the next time the Seminoles went to Baton Rouge, the Tigers went out to a 7-0 lead when Chad Loup connected with Todd Kinchen for a 65-yard pass on only the second play from scrimmage.  Unfortunately, the Tigers would not find the end zone again; but they did lead 13-0 after the first quarter, 16-7 at the half, and 16-14 after three quarters.  The two first-quarter field goals were from 27 and 35 yards, respectively, so LSU left some potential points out there that could have helped them hang on.  Looking at some of the stats, the game shouldn’t have been close at all though.  LSU had only 29 net rushing yards (after subtracting sacks and bad snaps) and went only 3 for 11 on third down.  The good news for LSU was that Loup threw for 233 yards, and Casey Weldon threw for only 109 yards. 

Brad Johnson, father of Max Johnson (who recently transferred from LSU to Texas A&M), helped close the gap with another 39 yards passing, but what really came in handy for the Seminoles was the use of four running backs who ran for over 20 yards apiece.  That might not sound like much, but LSU had no runnings backs with over 20 yards.

1991 was the one year in the Curley Hallman era the Tigers might not have deserved to finish with a losing record.  Two weeks after pressuring Florida St. (who finished 11-2) until late in the game, LSU finished only a field goal behind Alabama (who finished 11-1).  Four of LSU’s six losses that season came to a team that finished with 10 wins or more, with a fifth loss coming at Georgia (who finished 9-3).  10 wins weren’t as easy to come by when most teams played an 11-game regular season.  Speaking of which, in both 1989 and 1990, Florida St. would finish 10-2.

LSU finished 5-6 in both 1990 and 1991 after going 4-7 in 1989.  1989 was just one year removed from sharing the SEC title with Auburn in 1988 and two years removed from going 10-1-1 in 1987.  So 2019 to 2020 wasn’t the first steep drop in wins I experienced, although it was the most dramatic.

Since that exhausts my personal memory, I’ll just work backwards from the 1989 game.

Games between 1968 and 1989

1984 (which ended with a loss to Nebraska in the Sugar Bowl) to 1988, in which LSU finished first or within a half of game of first in the SEC every year, was arguably LSU’s best five-year stretch between the national championship seasons I mentioned, but they did not play Florida St. in any of those seasons. 

You had to go back to 1983, the last losing season before 1989, in which LSU also went 4-7, to find the previous game against the Seminoles.  LSU did not win a single SEC game that season, so in hindsight it was no surprise they lost to a Florida St. team that would finish 7-5.  Florida St. only ended up winning by 5, but they led by 19 with a minute left in the game.  Like the 1991 game, the Tigers did have a good first quarter, in this case going out to a 14-0 lead before 33 consecutive points by the Seminoles.

1982 was one of the two LSU wins.  After a heartbreaking 27-24 loss against Mississippi St. the week before (the Tigers would have finished undefeated in the SEC [albeit behind undefeated and untied Georgia] but for that loss), LSU blew out Florida St., 55-21.  There was a feeling of redemption as the Tigers would not have made the Sugar Bowl anyway, and Orange Bowl was a pretty good consolation prize.  Fans were so hopeful for that consolation prize that they brought oranges to throw at the field in celebration.  It was all downhill from there though.  The next week, the Tigers lost at home to Tulane for the first time in generations and went on to lose that Orange Bowl to (you guessed it) Nebraska.  Florida St.’s final record of 9-3 turned out to be better than LSU’s final record of 8-3-1.

There isn’t much to say about the 1980 and 1981 games.  Over the two seasons, LSU went 10-11-1 with no bowl game and went 1-1 against both Rice and Tulane, two traditional doormats.  Incredibly, the loss to Tulane in 1981 was LSU’s worst loss in New Orleans in the approximately 75 games LSU has played in that city.  Tulane beat LSU by more points than that only once in the 98-game series that goes back to 1893.  Anyway, Florida St. went 16-7 over those two seasons and beat LSU by a combined score of 54-14.

There were two other close games.  In 1979, Florida St. would start 11-0 before running into Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl.  Florida St. was one of three teams on LSU’s schedule who would finish with 11 wins or more.  LSU lost all three games, but they only lost them by a combined 13 points.  Alabama (which won the Sugar Bowl and the consensus national championship won by only 3, USC (which went undefeated and won the Rose Bowl) won by 5, and Florida St. also won by 5, all in Baton Rouge.  LSU also lost road games to a mediocre Georgia team and yet another to Tulane.  Although it was unusual for 6-5 teams back then, the Tigers were invited to a bowl game in which they beat previously 8-3 Wake Forest in the Tangerine Bowl (forerunner to the Florida Citrus Bowl).  This season is better known by LSU fans as the final season of the Charles McClendon era.  He is the winningest coach in LSU history but never won a national championship and only led the Tigers to two Sugar Bowls (and two Orange Bowls, which at the time was usually the second-best option for SEC teams) in 18 seasons.  More on McClendon at the end.

As to the game itself, LSU never led but was within one point for about 17 ½ minutes of game play, including the entire third quarter.  Steve Ensminger, who would later be Les Miles’ tight ends coach and Ed Orgeron’s offensive coordinator (including for the 2019 national championship), threw a touchdown late in the fourth quarter to close the gap to 24-19 but couldn’t complete the two-point-conversion attempt to make it closer and that was the final score.  Ensminger threw a desperation pass with 17 seconds left, but it was intercepted.  Unfortunately, Ensminger completed only six other passes through the course of the game, three of them during the last touchdown drive.  Like some of the later games, LSU couldn’t pass very well or defend the pass very well overall.

1968 Peach Bowl

That leaves only one other game, the Peach Bowl after the 1968 season.  1968 was between two of McClendon’s best seasons.  In 1967, the Tigers won the second of two Sugar Bowls in the McClendon era (the second such win in five seasons; there was also a Cotton Bowl win between the two).  LSU did lose three games that season, but they were given some mercy since the three losses were all to good teams were by a combined six points. 

In 1969, the Tigers were holding out to a chance to play for a national championship after suffering only one loss (to Archie Mannings’ Ole Miss Rebels by a field goal) all season.  Only two of the wins were by fewer than 20 points.  Texas was undefeated and as the Southwest Conference champions was guaranteed the Cotton Bowl, so that was the destination LSU had in mind.  As such the Tigers declined all other bowl invites.  The Cotton went week after week without inviting any other team, so it seemed the interest was mutual.  All the other major teams that seemed like major bowl targets got invites and all the other major bowls were full.  Then, to the surprise of the college football world, Notre Dame announced it was interested in a bowl game for only the second time in its history and the first time since 1924.  The Cotton wasn’t going to say no to that offer, so LSU was left out in the cold.  Texas won narrowly and won the consensus national championship; but given that Notre Dame’s only win over a team with a winning record had come over 6-4 Air Force, many were convinced that LSU should have played in and won that game.

Anyway, so the lead up to the national championship that wasn’t began in December of 1968.  While LSU was 7-3 heading into bowl season, the Tigers had not beaten a single team that would finish better than 3-7, so their propensity for beating anyone since the bowl win over Wyoming the season before remained a question mark.

The answer to that question was dubious for most of the game, the first between the two schools and probably the best.  The Tigers (specifically, Glenn Smith) fumbled the opening kickoff, committed additional turnovers on the first three offensive possessions, and then went three and out on the fourth and fifth offensive possessions. 

It was a small miracle they only trailed 13-0 at that point.  I can’t find his first name anywhere, but someone named Burns decided to take matters into his own hands and ran the subsequent Florida St. punt back for a touchdown to bring the Tigers to within one possession.  This seemed to turn the tide, and LSU finally took the lead, 17-13, early in the third quarter, and expanded that lead to 24-13 as time expired in that quarter.

With the next possession, Florida St. went 72 yards on 13 plays to get within 5 points.  The two-point attempt was intercepted by Burns, apparently the same guy who scored the touchdown on the punt.  The ensuing kickoff was fumbled, again by Smith and again recovered by Florida St., the Tigers’ fifth turnover (one was an interception) and fifth fumble (LSU recovered one) of the game.  This time, the Seminoles took 10 plays to drive 37 yards and succeeded in the two-point conversion to go up by three with 6:09 to play.

LSU had scored touchdowns in two of its three offensive possessions of the half, so things weren’t too dire yet.  The Tigers would only face one third down during the drive, but it was a dramatic one.  Mike LeBlanc was the primary tailback in the game and appeared to convert a third and three, but there was a hold.  This put the Tigers into a desperate third and 19 at the Florida St. 37, out of field goal range.  Mark Lumpkin, the LSU kicker, had made a field goal from 22 and missed one from 24.  Quarterback Mike Hillman hit WR Tommy Morel (who’d caught an absolute majority of the Tigers’ receptions that season) for 20 yards to the 17.  No other passes would be needed.  LeBlanc gained three yards the next play, followed by a QB keeper for 11, and then back to LeBlanc for the touchdown and a 31-27 lead.  The possession was 9 plays for 61 yards and left only 2:33 on the clock.

Florida St. would complete three straight passes on the ensuing possession to get to the LSU 44 but ran out of luck and three incompletions followed.  (The third completion had only been for one yard, so the third incompletion was on fourth and 9.). LSU was able to run out the clock.

I’m not sure which play this was, but I imagine that’s LeBlanc with the ball and Hillman in the background.

Hillman threw for 8 more yards in 12 fewer attempts than Bill Capplemen of Florida St.  LeBlanc was just three yards short of 100 to lead all rushers.  Morel gained a total of 103 yards in his six receptions to lead all receivers.  Morel did not score a touchdown, but I’m glad I looked up the details to give him credit.  Even though the total offensive numbers were close, I think the right team won given that LSU had the best quarterback, best receiver, best running back, and better defense that day; but, as mentioned, it could have been a blowout the other way had Florida St. taken more advantage of those turnovers.

Conclusion

Even though Florida St. has dominated the series, there were only two games with somewhat evenly matched teams.  In one, LSU snatched defeat from the jaws of victory before snatching victory from the jaws of defeat; and in the other LSU won in a blowout. 

Also, LSU won the only game at a neutral site.  I know people are claiming that the geography makes the Superdome not neutral, but I guarantee you you’ll be able to hear the Florida St. fans much better than you would if the game were at Tiger Stadium.  I’m not sure which fan base attended the 1968 Peach Bowl at a higher rate.