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Posts Tagged ‘San Jose St.’

SEC Wednesday #1 (Delayed)

In College Football, Me, SEC Wednesdays on October 1, 2015 at 2:32 PM

I said this would be a Wednesday thing (obviously); but I couldn’t concentrate, and there is no point posting in the middle of the night.

A friend and somewhat of a fan of my content passed away at the age of 28, and it’s been extremely hard to focus on anything.  I mentioned this on twitter (@TheBayouBlogger) and you can find out his name from there.  Just out of sensitivity for his family I don’t want to post his picture or elaborate further on his identity.  He was a big FSU fan, so that’s why I say “somewhat”. He really wanted them in the top 10.  I will miss his perspective and support.

I'm hardly a visual computer artist, but you get the idea.

I’m hardly a visual computer artist, but you get the idea.

Anyway, Saturday started about as well as I could have hoped as far as predictions.  The first four games went exactly as I’d predicted.  South Carolina went just past the line, Alabama fell just short of it.  LSU fell a little more short of it than I’d hoped, and Georgia beat Southern (ESPN didn’t have a line on that one).

Then it all came crashing down.  After my good luck was snapped by Florida’s comeback, I got all of the remaining picks against the spread wrong to finish 3-5 for the day.

I only got two other of the winners wrong (I had picked Missouri and Auburn), so in that category I was 6-3.

The first two partly hinge on ones reaction to the 52-20 Georgia win over South Carolina.  I’m going to fault South Carolina for being bad rather than credit Georgia for being great.  Central Florida is absolutely atrocious, and the Cocks were lucky to win on a neutral field against North Carolina.  So I’m taking Missouri minus the points.  They may only win by 3 like they beat Connecticut (even though they had a 90+ yard drive during which they failed to score), but I still think they may be another somewhat late-blooming team like last season.  Anyway, even 3 is still better than the line.

So since I’m not heaping praise upon Georgia, I also have a feeling Alabama will win that one (though I’d love if the Tide never won a game again the rest of the year).

Saban doesn’t lose two conference games in a row, at least apart from his first year at Alabama in 2007.  He didn’t lose consecutive conference games at LSU even once, although he did lose to Auburn and UAB in consecutive weeks in his first year (2000).

Anyway, speaking of Auburn, I’ll pick them to win.  However, they were so far away from the line the last few weeks, there are probably only about 15 teams in the whole FBS I’d pick them to beat by 20.  2-2 San José St. isn’t one of them.  The Spartans did lose to Air Force by 21, and that’s probably where that line comes from, but only after the Falcons scored 20 points in the fourth quarter.  I’m just not seeing a similar offensive output from Auburn.

I’m going to take my lesson from previous games and resist the temptation to take a road favorite against the line, especially when it’s 7.5 like the Ole Miss/Florida line is.  Last year, Ole Miss was #3 and they visited a team who was ranked #24.  That team was LSU, and LSU not only kept it within 7 but won.  I don’t pick Ole Miss to lose this one because despite the final record LSU was a bit better last year than Florida is this year, but I will take the Gators and the points.

Tennessee is favored by 6.5 over Arkansas, and even though they’re at home, I’m taking the underdog again.  Arkansas is having a bad year, and Tennessee may do all right.  But the Hogs gave A&M all they could handle, and I don’t think the Vols can run away (or throw away?) with it like Texas Tech did.  I will pick Tennessee to win though.

This brings me to LSU, who is favored by 44.5.  It’s rare that LSU beats anyone by that much, but they did beat NMSU and Sam Houston St. by 56 apiece last year.  In 2013, they only beat UAB by 39, but what sold it for me is late last year Western Michigan even beat the Eagles by 44.  So it is a generally insane margin, but I think LSU will more likely than not beat it.  EMU is a team that gave up 58 points to Army (who scored 17 and 14, respectively, in the Cadets’ other games against FBS opponents).  Les Miles does take his foot off the gas at times, so there is some hesitation; but LSU could score over 50 without even trying particularly hard, and I don’t see the defense giving up more than a score or two.

Next up is Vanderbilt.  At least they’re not a favored road team. The Commodores have done better than I would have expected in their last three games, and they did better than they were supposed to in Week 1 (I just wish they could have gotten that 2-point conversion and won in overtime).  I’ll take Vandy and the point and a half.  I’ll even take them to win.

Another team that keeps surprising me is Mississippi St.  I definitely would not give seven points in that one, but I think the 12th man gives the Aggies another close win.

There is no line for the FBS/FCS games, but of course I’m picking Kentucky over Eastern Kentucky.

In  sum:

To win – Missouri, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Kentucky

Spread – Missouri -2.5, Alabama +2, San José St. +20, Florida +7.5, Arkansas +6.5, LSU -44.5, Vanderbilt +1.5, Mississippi St. +7

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Thoughts on Pac-12 expansion

In College Football, Realignment on November 12, 2013 at 8:26 PM
Logos in white boxes represent potential additions.  The red areas are the current South Division, and the blue areas are the current North Division.

Logos in white boxes represent potential additions. The red areas are the current South Division, and the blue areas are the current North Division.

With BYU’s success as an independent team (despite losses to Virginia and Utah, the latter a recent Pac-12 addition), I still think the Cougars would be a good fit for the Pac-12. That’s the real rival for Utah–not Colorado, who doesn’t have a real rival in the Pac-12.

I know the conference is expressing reluctance to expand, but it wasn’t too long ago that it was talking about 16 teams. Also, it doesn’t seem like that long ago that the Pac-10 and Big Ten didn’t want to expand, didn’t want a championship game, and didn’t even want to be involved in the BCS. Both wanted their champion to play in the Rose Bowl and for that to be the end of it. A few conferences seemed happy at 12 but have expanded/are expanding anyway.

I still don’t understand why public “research universities” is such a priority for Pac-12 admission, but people always bring it up. I had never heard much about Utah or Arizona St. (or a couple of the more long-standing Pac-8/10/12 schools) being academic powerhouses. Anyway, I do know BYU is a good school (without so much research maybe), and since they’re unaffiliated and there are two schools in the Rockies unconnected with the rest of the conference, it seems it would fit.

Although I don’t know anything about its standing among other schools academically (promotional materials seem to make their research sound impressive: http://www.depts.ttu.edu/vpr/), Texas Tech would be a good way to expand into the pool of Texas talent since it is in Western Texas, actually not very far to the East (although significantly to the South) of Boulder, Colorado. It was one of those potential additions to the Pac-12 when the Big XII nearly fell into pieces.

How to align the divisions would be a challenge, although I do have an idea of how that could be done. Basically, take the 7 rivalry pairs and put all the more sophisticated schools in one division and the other schools in another. Washington St. and Oregon St. seem a little grittier than Washington and Oregon, the latter two being rivals of one other anyway. Stanford/Cal, USC/UCLA, and BYU/Utah are fairly obvious since the first one of each pair is private and the second public. I don’t think I have to elaborate on why Texas Tech is more rough-around-the-edges than Colorado. Just imagine Boulder, then imagine Lubbock. By reputation, Arizona seems a little more buttoned-down than Arizona St., but I’m not sure that matters either way.

Colorado could have an even better rival in Air Force, although that doesn’t really expand the recruiting base. It may add to fan interest though. The service academies have fans scattered all over. Of course, Air Force also regularly played BYU and Utah when all three were in the Mountain West and WAC. The team right now is pretty bad though. You don’t always want to focus on the short term, but I think that would be a meaningful concern. The Pac-12 doesn’t want another doormat.

Boise St. doesn’t have much of an academic profile, but that would seem to make for an easy transition. The Broncos already have the talent and interest to compete, and it would be natural to add them to the Pac-12 North and BYU to the Pac-12 South. I still think teams in Colorado and Utah being in the South seems a little off, but my understanding is everyone not in California wants to play in California at least once a year.

Fresno St., UNLV, San Diego St., and San Jose St. could be other possibilities if academics aren’t a priority. UNLV and San Diego are big unexploited media markets for major college football (and in the case of UNLV, there are no major professional sports in the area either). I’m not sure how much San Jose St. and Fresno St. would add, so they’re probably least likely, but they make obvious geographical sense. There are half a million people in Fresno and no major sports in the surrounding area, where arguably another half a million people or more live. San Jose St. isn’t very far from Stanford, but not everyone is a Stanford person.

Another possibility I thought of was Hawaii, which apparently does have some research credentials, but that program has crashed and burned since June Jones and Colt Brennan left the islands, so it has some of the same problems as Air Force, except I think Air Force has better road fans. Logistics aren’t very favorable for Hawaii either, of course.

Nebraska is a long-shot, but I thought it worth mentioning. I don’t think the Big Ten is quite what the Huskers signed up for. If they have to play a 9-game conference schedule and travel to one of the coasts, why not the Pacific Coast instead? With Colorado, at least they would get one of their traditional rivals back. Maybe if they joined along with Texas Tech, that would be the best way of including new teams in a more logical way.

As to how the divisional alignment would work, Utah could just be switched to the North and keep playing Colorado as a permanent opponent (or “protected series”, as the Big Ten calls it). Berkeley is about the same distance away as Tempe (Arizona St. is the second-closest Pac-12 South opponent for the Utes) is anyway. Nebraska would also help out the competitive balance in the long-run. I’m sure that would be a really expensive proposition though.

Bring Back the Big West

In Bowls, College Football, Realignment on December 8, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Even though this could have been the promising first year of a reorganized respectable second-tier conference, the WAC as we used to know it seems pretty much dead. All the football members have left or are leaving apart from Idaho and New Mexico St.

As recently as 1995, the top three WAC teams of this year, Louisiana Tech, Utah St., and San Jose St., all competed in the Big West. Nevada, UNLV, and New Mexico St. were also in that conference, and Boise St. joined (along with Idaho) in 1996.

Which got me thinking… since there won’t be a WAC, why can’t there be a Big West in football again? I can’t think of a good reason. In football, the Big East is doing so much expanding from the area near the Mississippi River all the way to Boise and San Diego, so that can incorporate these teams while the rest of the conference can keep operating as it is already, with some possible quality expansion in other sports.

These were the teams in the WAC in 1995:
Air Force
BYU
Colorado St.
Fresno St.
Hawaii
New Mexico
San Diego St.
Utah
UTEP
Wyoming

Boise St. and San Diego St. are actually going to be in the Big West in other sports, and Hawaii is already there. I imagine Utah St. and San Jose St. (which appear to be headed to the Mountain West) could be brought back with just the foundation I’ve mentioned so far. BYU left the Mountain West to become independent in football (WCC in other sports, which makes less sense than the Big West would), but no currently AQ-conference has offered them a spot, and they’re naturals to be playing the likes of Boise St. and Utah St., both of which they’ve played this season.

The East-West alliance along the lines of the previously-discussed MWC-CUSA idea didn’t work out because of all the existing obligations (essentially schools could then leave without buyout fees and without paying the conference shares of post-season revenue), but all those problems aren’t here since administratively, it would still really be the Big East.

Louisiana Tech is a definite for the Conference USA, but that’s fine because they were too far to the East for the WAC anyway. The Big West football conference did extend into Arkansas and Louisiana briefly (inlcluding Louisiana Tech and UL-Lafayette, then known as the University of Southwestern Louisiana). There is a bit of a central region in the Big East as well that could provide the anticipated mega-conference some flexibility, so they’re not completely out of the question later.

The Big East has already announced plans to include Memphis, Tulane, SMU, and Houston. With the quality Western teams available, I would think Memphis and Tulane would be playing in the true Big East (by which I mean teams that would be in the Big East in other sports and in the Eastern division in football), but SMU and Houston would be good opponents for them as well. If only one of the four goes out West (in the even both Cincinnati and Connecticut find other conferences), then SMU and Houston could still be permanent opponents.

The only teams left from a couple of years ago (to make up the core of the true Big East) will be Connecticut, Cincinnati, and South Florida.

So this is what I’m thinking as a possible alignment…

Big East Big West
Central Florida Boise St.
Cincinnati BYU
Connecticut Hawaii
East Carolina Houston
Memphis Nevada
South Florida San Diego St.
Temple SMU
Tulane UNLV
Future possibilities Future possibilities
Army Air Force
Louisiana Tech San Jose St.
Navy* Utah St.

*-Navy is already set to join in 2015.

Apart from Navy, the Western future possibilities are more likely in the event of more shuffling of the Eastern teams. The ACC or Big Ten could take teams from the East if they want to go to 16. If the SEC goes to 16, they would likely come from the ACC, which will probably want to replace those two. So if two teams are lost from the Eastern division, they could be replaced by SMU and Houston, whose spots in the Western division could be taken by San Jose St. and Utah St. I could also see SMU and Houston joining the Big XII to make it… wait for it, 12 teams. Then you could simply replace them with San Jose St. and Utah St. Air Force (who could of course be a permanent opponent of Navy) seems like another reasonable possibility

To balance out possible unfairness from permanent opponents, I would be in favor of only counting divisional play toward picking the contestants for the championship game, but this would not rule out one or two games against teams from the other side during the season. If Air Force and Navy were in different divisions, they would still need to play one another. I don’ t know if Army is a possibility, but just for instance, it might be that if all the Commander-in-Chief teams are in this conference, two permanent opponents would be needed. That can’t really be done if it counts as an equal conference game. Other programs may not prefer to play any inter-divisional games.

Also, if circumstances change (which seems to happen every couple of months), maybe there could be too much interest in the East and not enough in the West. Then, you could easily have Memphis and/or Tulane move to the West.

I guess we can expect the Mountain West to have a number of members suitable for a round-robin format, which is sort of why it was created around the turn of the 21st century. So in addition to the three programs mentioned as future possibilities for the Big West, the Mountain West membership includes Wyoming, Colorado St., Fresno St., and New Mexico. I started this off by mentioning Idaho and New Mexico St. They could fit right in if some of the defections take place. Another possibility would be UTEP, which is less than an hour away from New Mexico St. West Texas might be a place to make recruiting inroads. Of course, the Big East is already going to be in East Texas.

Idaho isn’t quite as great of a fit for either conference, but another possibility for Idaho is to go back to the Big Sky, which may also house future FBS programs, by the way.

Anyway, there are definitely suitable teams for an 8-10-team Mountain West as well as an 8-team Big West to be part of the football Big East.

The bowl policies are interesting here. The Fiesta Bowl currently is the Big XII champion’s default destination, but that is going to be the Sugar under the SEC-Big XII contract, so that will open up. Maybe the winner of the football Big East could play there, even if the winner were from the East. An Eastern team might be good enough for the Orange Bowl in some years, but nothing would rule out a Pac-12 or Big XII #2 team playing the MWC champions in the Fiesta Bowl if it worked out that way. I don’t think the MWC under what I’m envisioning would be a fixture in the major bowls, but there may be some years where that would be appropriate. The Cotton Bowl also seems to be taking on increasing importance, but one would think that would be a common location of the SEC-Big XII bowl in the years where the Sugar is a semifinal bowl. In other years, the football Big East might be a good fit as well, regardless of which division the winner comes from.

The Big East doesn’t have to be an unmitigated coast-to-coast disaster, but I’m afraid that is a possibility without the kind of clear direction I would like to see it have with the Western teams. Funny that just a could years ago, many (myself included) were thinking the solution might just be to make the MWC an AQ in lieu of the Big East or simply to remove the Big East from AQ status to make room for more MWC or WAC teams. Now I’m talking about a lot of the teams in question being in the same conference somehow.

Pre-Bowl (Week 14) Top 25 and Comments

In College Football, Post-game, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on December 2, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Top 25

rank / team / prior

1 Notre Dame 1
2 Ohio St. 2
3 Florida 3
4 Alabama 5
5 Stanford 6
6 Oregon 4
7 Kansas St. 8
8 S Carolina 9
9 LSU 10
10 Georgia 7
11 Oklahoma 13
12 TX A&M 12
13 Nebraska 11
14 SJSU 15
15 Clemson 14
16 Florida St. 17
17 N. Illinois 19
18 Oregon St. 16
19 Utah St. 18
20 Boise St. 24
21 Louisville —
22 N’western 20
23 Michigan 23
24 Ball St. —
25 Ark. St. —

Out of rankings: (21) Texas, (22) Rutgers, (25) Kent St.

Full 124 permalink

Prior rankings:
Preseason
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13

Comments
I know people aren’t going to be happy with this necessarily, but I really believe that at least the top 10 or so is exactly as it should be.

Notre Dame has the best collection of wins, followed by Florida. If Florida simply hadn’t played Georgia and played out the rest of the season, they would be ahead of Ohio St. despite having played one fewer game. Also, if you were to give Florida a win over Alabama (while still leaving off the Georgia loss), there is a good chance the Gators would be ahead of Notre Dame.

I do give Ohio St. a poor strength of schedule rating, but that doesn’t mean the Buckeyes were untested. They defeated a 10-win team, a 9-win team, and three 8-win teams. The only team in the top 8 of the Big Ten standings that the Buckeyes avoided playing was Northwestern. All but the most die-hard SEC supporters would not likely be complaining if the Buckeyes were not on probation and were set to play in the BCS championship game as the undefeated Big Ten champions.

As to Florida being ahead of Alabama, I simply think Florida has the better collection of wins.

Florida—LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Florida St., Vanderbilt
Alabama—LSU, Georgia, Michigan, Mississippi St.

When you go much further below the top 40, I don’t think that’s especially relevant for conversations about how to rank the top 5, but even if we cover the top 60, Alabama is still 4-1 while Florida improves all the way to 7-1. Also see my chart in last week’s (actually Friday’s) comments.

I don’t regard Georgia as a worse loss than Texas A&M, but whether you do or not, I don’t think that overcomes the difference in quality wins.

If you think the BCS should have a rule that only conference champions should be considered, then I think many would agree with my ratings that the best two conference champions are Alabama and Stanford. If independents are exceptions to this rule, then this would give you Alabama and Notre Dame, exactly what is going to happen.

Kansas St. would take exception to being behind Stanford among champions, but the Wildcats didn’t beat anyone in my top 10 and only two teams in my top 40. Stanford does have two losses to one, but one of those losses was to Notre Dame, a team that happened to beat Oklahoma, Kansas St.’s best win by far.

Stanford lost to a fairly mediocre Washington team, but there isn’t a big gap between Washington and Baylor. Stanford won six games against my top 40 to Kansas St.’s two. I purposely make wins and losses count a lot here, but it only goes so far.

I can imagine some grumblings over South Carolina being ahead of LSU. LSU did beat the Gamecocks after all. There are a couple of very minor things that could have changed this.
One would have been LSU scoring a couple more points or allowing a couple fewer points against the Gamecocks. While margin of victory is not generally a relevant factor for me, home teams have a historical advantage of around 3 points per game, and home teams win about 5% more often.

Some compensate for this discrepancy by eliminating the point difference (this is done in ratings that include margin of victory of course, usually ones that have something to do with betting since it can be added or subtracted based on the location of a given game), and some compensate by uniformly counting home wins less and away wins more (and usually also home losses more and away losses less).

Since I think the advantage is generally in close games, I do a bit of a hybrid. If a game is decided by three points or fewer (which is also useful because it so happens to be a field goal… often a couple more first downs during the course of a game would have given a team a field goal where in a drive where it ended up with no points or even a touchdown rather than a field goal) or in overtime (obviously, one more point on either side would have avoided overtime in the first place), I only give the home team 90% of the win (not 95% because I don’t give it 5% of a loss), and I penalize the away team 10% less (not 5% because I don’t give it 5% of a win).

So while LSU has slightly better wins and a better second loss (both lost to Florida; Alabama is regarded as slightly better than LSU), it doesn’t show up that way. Lessening South Carolina’s penalty for losing to LSU makes the LSU loss seem to be a better loss than Alabama.

Another way LSU ends up ahead would have been if Washington had not blown an 18-point fourth-quarter lead and lost to Washington St. in overtime.

Maybe the bowl games will sort out this discrepancy anyway.

There may also be some unhappiness over Oklahoma staying ahead of Texas A&M, but this is another very close call. Texas A&M lost to my #3 and #9 while Oklahoma lost to my #1 and #7. As to the wins, while #4 is obviously a much better win than #28, don’t forget that Texas A&M played two fewer games against AQ-level opponents and one more game against an FCS opponent.

While the proper order of the teams beyond this point is not the objective of my ratings and I do not necessarily endorse this order, it does make some sense. If there were a 25-team playoff (god forbid), they would all have good arguments for inclusion.

San Jose St. does seem unusually high, but they were second for a conference championship behind Utah St. In this conference, Louisiana Tech finished 3rd even though the Bulldogs only fell a two-point conversion short of taking Texas A&M to overtime. San Jose St. itself only lost at Stanford by 3 points. San Jose St. may not beat Clemson or Florida St. on a neutral field, but I don’t think many expected them to win 10 games regardless of the opposition. As to Utah St. (San Jose St.’s other loss), the Aggies only lost to Wisconsin (Big Ten champions) by 2 points and to BYU (which San Jose St. beat) by 3 points. I would also note that BYU lost at Notre Dame by only 3 points.

Oregon St. beat Wisconsin and BYU (despite going on to lose three games overall), so it makes sense that the Beavers are ahead of the Aggies.

Florida St. won the ACC. They beat Clemson but had the worse conference loss, to North Carolina St., so they’re a very small distance behind the Tigers.

Northern Illinois won the MAC championship with only a single loss all season (to Iowa), and Boise St. was the best team in the three-way tie atop the Mountain West (with Fresno St. and San Diego St., both of whom finished just out of the top 25). Boise St. also lost to a mediocre Big Ten team in Michigan St., so this is another reminder to give Ohio St. a bit of credit.
Louisville of course wrapped up the Big East and won 10 games this season.

Northwestern and Michigan were also good enough against quality competition to make the top 25. Michigan of course played Ohio St. in inter-division play and Notre Dame and Alabama out of conference, so this helped make up for having one fewer win than Northwestern does, but still the Wildcats have a slight edge.

Ball St. has won six straight since losing to both MAC-title contestants in back-to-back weeks and the Cardinals’ only other loss was to Clemson. The Cardinals beat Indiana and South Florida. Granted, those aren’t great AQ opponents, but the AQ performance looks a lot better than that by either Northern Illinois or Kent St. (which lost to Kentucky). More impressive than that, they also defeated Toledo (which lost to Arizona in overtime and beat Cincinnati) to end the Rockets’ 8-game winning streak.

Arkansas St. won the Sun Belt and hasn’t lost since September. Along with the one in-conference slip-up against Western Kentucky, the Red Wolves’ only other losses were to Nebraska and Oregon.

Week 10 Top 25 and other notes

In General LSU, History, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on November 8, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Top 25

rank / team / prior

1 Notre Dame 1
2 Alabama 2
3 Ohio St. 3
4 Kansas St. 4
5 Oregon 5
6 Florida 6
7 Georgia 10
8 Oregon St. 9
9 Louisville 7
10 S Carolina 11
11 Clemson 16
12 Nebraska 18
13 Florida St. 12
14 LSU 8
15 TX A&M 23
16 Stanford 13
17 Toledo 14
18 Texas 22
19 Oklahoma 24
20 La. Tech —
21 N’western 19
22 Rutgers 21
23 SJSU —
24 UCLA —
25 Miss. St. 20

Out of rankings: (15) TX Tech, (17) Boise St., (25) Tulsa

Full 124 permalink

Prior rankings:
Preseason
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9

Before my usual top 25 run-down and other notes, I wanted to express my condolences to the University of Texas and its fans for the passing away of Darrell Royal yesterday. I had mentioned him less than two weeks ago in my blog about records and winning percentages of Les Miles and other prominent coaches. Many of the coaches on my list of historic greats are long gone, but some of the ones still alive (most of whom, unlike Royal, made their names in the 1980s and 1990s) are Lou Holtz, Dennis Erickson, Jimmie Johnson, Tom Osborne, and Barry Switzer. At least a couple of the honorable mentions are still around too. For example, Vince Dooley turned 80 a couple of months ago, and Frank Broyles (about 6 months younger than Royal) is expected to turn 88 next month. Broyles and Royal were close friends despite the rivalry at that time, and Royal’s career also overlapped with Switzer’s.

I was also interested to note that Royal attended the University of Oklahoma, where he played for Bud Wilkinson, another coach on my list. Royal intercepted 18 passes in his career with the Sooners, still a school record, particularly impressive given the reluctance of many to employ the forward pass at that time. Perhaps not coincidentally, he is famous for the statement, “Three things can happen when you pass, and two of ’em are bad.” He also was a successful part-time quarterback.

Before becoming the head coach of Texas, where he was known for installing the wishbone offense, Royal briefly coached at Mississippi St. (whose series against LSU I profiled here) and Washington. In his 23 seasons as a college head coach (1954-76), none of his teams ever had a losing record.

Top 25 comments
It may not look like the top teams have changed, and that’s true in ordinal ranking. However, going into last week, Alabama trailed Notre Dame by .23. Now Alabama trails Notre Dame by .04. So the Tide should have no problem passing up the Irish, assuming they can get past Texas A&M. Not a guarantee given that the Aggies had a similarly close game against LSU and just last week dismantled Mississippi St. similarly to the way the Tide did the week before.

Notre Dame will lose standing compared to other undefeated teams as the Irish still have Boston College, Wake Forest, and a bye week. They also have USC of course, but a 3-loss USC is probably not what many people expected they’d face and the three other major undefeateds all have multiple opponents left who rate higher than the Trojans do right now.

Ohio St. is still #3 here, but keep in mind they haven’t had a bye week either (they have one this week and of course will be idle during championship week). If the score is averaged by playing weeks, Ohio St. is 5th instead. I think 5th is more in line with where they should be, but I’m confident it will work itself out.

It doesn’t look like Florida can make the SEC championship game (absent what would be an almost miraculous win by Auburn over Georgia), so in light of LSU’s loss, I don’t think a one-loss SEC champion would be in the mix, unless of course a couple of these other teams lose (in which case maybe a one-loss non-champion could be involved). Georgia had a much worse loss (35-7 to South Carolina) and a significantly weaker schedule than Florida has had (Ole Miss, Auburn, and Georgia Tech in lieu of Texas A&M, LSU, and Florida St.), so they’re a tough sell as a one-loss team. I don’t think Alabama would be able to pull off what Oklahoma did in 2003 and make the BCS championship despite the loss in the conference championship game. Of course the formula has changed quite a bit since then. It would make for interesting conversation if Florida, Georgia, and Alabama all finished with one loss apiece, but practically, I’m afraid that would just dilute the SEC-sympathetic vote.

Anyway, as far as my ratings, Florida is significantly ahead (.11) of Georgia even though the Bulldogs are just the next spot down, so absent Georgia beating Alabama (who has all but clinched the SEC West), they should stay ahead.

I was happy to see Louisville and Toledo each moved down a couple spots as promised. Rutgers only fell one spot during its bye week, but this was partly due to losses by teams in their vicinity.

Georgia and Oregon St. moved up with a couple of respective good-but-not-great wins. Oregon St. could potentially be the top 1-loss team as it can play itself into the Pac-12 championship game against Stanford and Oregon. Of course, Georgia would gain significant ground by winning the SEC, but the Bulldogs don’t have much remaining competition otherwise.

South Carolina, Clemson, Nebraska, and Florida St. benefited from LSU’s loss and all moved up. The Gamecocks only moved up one spot though, because of course they had lost to LSU. Florida St. only moved up one spot because of its bye week and because that Duke win doesn’t count as much as it did last week.

Nebraska still gets credit for beating Michigan St., although the losses are adding up for the Spartans too. Also, the Huskers got a boost from UCLA (which beat Nebraska in September) beating Arizona.

Northwestern also felt the effects of the bye week, as they were passed up by Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana Tech. Texas A&M got the big win over Mississippi St., which in turn helped out Louisiana Tech. Texas and Oklahoma got decent wins in their own right, and also helped each other out.

San Jose St. is just gradually moving up as other teams lose, but we’ll see if they belong when they play BYU and Louisiana Tech. One of the Spartans’ two losses is to Stanford, so that’s why there aren’t a lot of negative points there. It also helped SJSU out that San Diego St. (whom they beat in September) beat Boise St. The Spartans are the 96th team I have ranked out of 124 in the nearly two decades I have ranked teams (I’m getting old). Obviously, the four new teams haven’t had much of a chance yet.

Three consecutive wins since the humiliation in Berkeley have put UCLA back in the top 25, and Mississippi St. is still barely hanging on at #25.

23 of my top 25 teams are also in the BCS top 25. The only exceptions are Ohio St., which is on probation and excluded from the BCS ratings, and San Jose St. Texas Tech and USC are the two teams in the BCS top 25 but not in my top 25.

SEC and LSU Notes

9 of the top 22 schedules in my formula belong to the SEC. That number might be a little skewed because I don’t factor in FCS games, but as of right now, the SEC has played fewer such games per team than any other major conference apart from the Big Ten. The SEC has seven teams in my top 25. The SEC is easily first in my conference rankings, but due to tiebreakers, the Pac-12 North is now the top division, although keep in mind that this only looks at where the good teams are ranked and does not consider how bad teams like Washington St. and Arkansas are.

Kentucky has announced that head coach Joker Philips will not be retained next season. I rank Kentucky’s schedule third, but I rank the team 98th. The Cats beat a Kent St. team that has beaten Rutgers and has done very well in the MAC. They also gave Georgia a very close game, but there were no wins apart from Kent St., and if you’re even occasionally bad enough to lose to Vanderbilt 40-0 at home, I can see the administration wanting to make a change. Kentucky made a bowl game in 2010 and barely missed one in 2011, so it may be time to try to right the ship before any further damage is done.

The Captain Obvious (or should that be spelled “Oblivious”?) award for the week goes to Les Miles, who admitted the fake field goal (a pass from the punter to the kicker at that) on 4th and 12 was not the right play.

As if there wasn’t enough bad about the LSU/Bama game, one thing that made it even worse was that LSU used the game as a major recruiting event. Kain Daub, a LB who may be one of the top recruits in the nation in 2014, announced a few days later that he has opened up his options since committing to LSU in the offseason. Alabama is one of several schools he is now considering, but he hasn’t completely eliminated LSU. Kendall Beckwith, a 4-star “ATH” (I so hate that designation) from Louisiana, is still leaning toward LSU, but is also considering Alabama. I wonder if the outcome of this game might come into play when he decides. Beckwith plans to attend the A&M/Alabama game as well.

Speaking of which, unless there is a three-way tie with Alabama and Texas A&M (which would require losses by the Tide to A&M and Auburn), LSU will not make the SEC championship game this season. The Tigers have made the SEC championship game 5 times, but all were in odd-numbered years. LSU has played @Auburn and @Florida in every even-numbered year since the SEC championship game began. The Tigers have also hosted Alabama in even-numbered years that whole time and have generally fared worse against the Tide at home than on the road.

For the eighth presidential election in a row, the LSU/Alabama game has corresponded with the outcome of the presidential election. It’s simple: LSU beats Alabama in an election year, the Republican wins; Alabama beats LSU, the Democrat wins. So if you don’t like Obama, blame Les Miles for getting him re-elected. The Alabama/LSU game often takes place after the election though.

It has sometimes been the second Saturday in November instead of the first. (And of course even the first Saturday sometimes falls after Election Day… which by law is the first Tuesday that is not November 1.) The game was actually played on the third Saturday in 2002 and 2003 and on the fourth Saturday in 1973, but obviously those weren’t election years and the streak didn’t start until 1984 anyway. Otherwise, it’s been on one of those two days since this started being an annual rivalry in 1964.

The “Redskins Rule” (which has to do with the Redskins defending the incumbent’s party by winning at home), on the other hand, has been wrong in two of the last three elections.