Pre-Bowl Top 25 and LSU 2024 Schedule

LSU’s 2024 Schedule : Historical and Competitive Ramifications

I’ve sat down to this blog a few times, and each time some other news item comes out.  The most recent event was the release of LSU’s schedule with the actual dates. 

I decided to just cover that and the top 25 for now.  Interesting bowl games (to me anyway) are still about two weeks away, so the rest can wait.

We’ve known all the teams on LSU’s 2024 schedule for a while but not who LSU was playing on what date.  The one constant going back as long as I remember is Alabama after a bye week and between about November 3 and 12, this time on the 9th. Alabama seems to keep roughly the same order from year to year, but no one else does that I’ve noticed. 

Given the addition of the second bye, I like that it was added before Ole Miss.  That’s been a tough contest lately.  LSU has a three-game losing streak in College Station, but I’m still less worried about that game than about Ole Miss.

Texas A&M was scheduled on the traditional late October date for Ole Miss though. LSU will play the Rebels two weeks earlier, with Arkansas sandwiched in between. 

LSU WR Chris Hilton and the Tigers came up short in the final seconds in Oxford in September. LSU won four “Magnolia Bowls” in a row from 2016 to 2019, but since then the winner has always been the home team.

Florida was traditionally around the date the Ole Miss game is scheduled, but this might be the last year of what has been an annual series since 1971 anyway.  It was also after Alabama this year, so it was easy to leave it where it was.  At least they weren’t both road games in either year.

LSU doesn’t have a long ongoing annual tradition with anyone else on the 2024 schedule. 

They had only played Texas A&M once (in a bowl) between 1995 and 2012, the year the Aggies joined the SEC. LSU had previously played the Aggies in early September, but it’s different when it’s not a conference game.  

I wouldn’t be opposed to making it an early game in the future though, especially since LSU won’t play Auburn annually anymore. Mississippi St. was a typical September fixture for a while also, although on the traditional schedule they were after Alabama. I’m still annoyed LSU plays neither Auburn nor Mississippi St. next year.

Since the annual series with Tulane ended in 1994, LSU has played whatever somewhat proximate SEC is left without a good end-of-year rival. Arkansas was not particularly close to and had no longstanding recent rivalry with anyone in the SEC when it entered, so that was fine for about 20 years. Then after Missouri and Texas A&M joined (and two “transitional” years elapsed), it made sense to split that up when it became clear that the Aggies weren’t playing Texas anytime soon.

Now that the Thanksgiving/rivalry-week Longhorns-Aggies series is rekindled and Bedlam is on hiatus, it wasn’t a huge shock that LSU finishes with Oklahoma in Baton Rouge. We are used to playing a team with a reddish color from a neighboring conference to the west.

The SEC could have mixed things up in some other ways in 2024, but it was easier not to, especially since next year is just a one-off and not part of any dedicated rotation. Just as a neutral fan of college football and historical rivalries, my hope is that Oklahoma either can manage to schedule Oklahoma St. again or that they play Missouri on rivalry week. I would be OK with LSU going back to Arkansas or having some type of rotation (perhaps switching between Oklahoma and Arkansas or between Vanderbilt and Kentucky). There was some history with Kentucky. LSU played the Wildcats 51 years in a row at one point (ending with the 2002 season).

Ollie Gordon II rushes for one of two touchdowns in the 27-24 win in Stillwater, OK, on November 4. Although Bedlam has typically been a close game in recent years, Oklahoma had beaten Oklahoma St. eight of nine seasons going into 2021.  The Cowboys ended on a high note though, winning two of the last three.

As far as I’m concerned, LSU could even go back to playing Tulane if the two sides could come anywhere close to a mutually agreeable deal; but since that hasn’t happened in nearly 30 years, I’m not optimistic. There was a home-and-home in 2006 and 2007, but LSU felt like they gave up revenue from a potential home game to enrich Tulane. Since then, LSU has played every other Louisiana Division I program, all of whom seem content with being paid money to travel to Tiger Stadium occasionally rather than expecting a home-and-home exchange.

Anyway, putting tradition aside, I like that there aren’t brutal back-to-back weeks. Going to Florida after hosting Alabama isn’t ideal, but there is only one instance of LSU playing 2023 bowl teams two weeks in a row, and that’s UCLA and South Alabama (both were barely eligible and both will be home games).

USC and UCLA are separated by Nicholls St. and South Carolina. The Bruins or Gamecocks could have a good year, but I doubt both will. I don’t see much risk of looking past an SEC road game or coming down from an emotional high for the first home game that is against a Power 5 opponent.

There were years when I’ve been glad LSU got an apparently tough opponent from what we used to call the SEC East, but we didn’t need one given the out-of-conference slate. Also, I’m not even sure if you need a good non-annual schedule, especially if the SEC eventually adds a ninth game, in the playoff system. I guess we will see how lines get drawn between 4 and 5, 8 and 9, and 12 and 13 in playoff selection

Top 25

Other than their effects upon the Playoff resumes as mentioned in the previous blog, I didn’t have much to say about the conference championship games because they weren’t very surprising.  I don’t know why Oregon was favored by so much; but as I kept telling everyone, they didn’t deserve it.  I wasn’t a big believer in Georgia since the only SEC West teams they faced were Auburn and Ole Miss and they didn’t do anything out of conference until beating an average Georgia Tech team a couple of weeks ago.  Very good Alabama teams have struggled with Auburn before, so I didn’t attach much importance to that.  In lieu of Georgia, I admittedly picked the “wrong” Big Ten team as #1, but it wasn’t my fault Ohio St. had a better schedule than Michigan.  As expected, the Wolverines had no problem with Iowa. 

I’m listing my top 25 teams below, but I think they all fairly logically proceed from the results of those games and what I had written about the Playoff teams last week.

Rank	Team	Last
1	Washington	1
2	Michigan	2
3	Alabama	5
4	Texas	4
5	Florida St.	6
6	Georgia	3
7	Ohio St.	7
8	Oklahoma	11
9	Oregon	8
10	Penn St.	9
11	Ole Miss	10
12	Missouri	13
13	Liberty	17
14	LSU	15
15	Iowa	12
16	James Madison	14
17	Troy	22
18	Louisville	16
19	Notre Dame	21
20	N Carolina St.	18
21	So. Methodist	—
22	Tulane	19
23	Toledo	20
24	Arizona	24
25	Miami U.	—

Out of Top 25: (23) Oklahoma St., (25) Oregon St.

Honorable mention: Kansas St., Oklahoma St., Oregon St., Clemson, Memphis

LSU/Alabama Clarifications and Preview

I’m not going to tell you who’s going to win the LSU-Alabama game or whether Alabama is likely to beat the spread.  There are plenty of people to do that.  However, there are some things some of those supposed experts have been getting wrong that I’d like to correct.

LSU did suffer injuries, but…

LSU is only down one member of the secondary who has played in the last month or so, Zy Alexander.  Some people are saying it’s four or five players.  It is that many cumulative going back to the offseason, but the Tigers struggled more when some of those players were playing than they are now.  So the idea that LSU is already terrible and now they’re likely getting a lot worse due to a slew of injuries that some people who are picking Alabama keep promulgating isn’t quite accurate. 

The Tigers will also miss lineman Mekhi Wingo, but that absence is the result of surgery for a nagging injury that had kept him from playing at full strength all season, and LSU’s front seven has been pretty decent (with some depth) since they settled on the 4-3 formation. Jordan Jefferson (see the next section if you’re confused) has been the standout this season, not Wingo.

Alabama is the healthier team, so if people just make that point and leave it at that, they’re not misleading you.

No College Starting QB Has Beaten Saban 2 in a Row Since…

There was report, I think circulated by ESPN, that last starting college quarterback to beat Nick Saban two years in a row was Drew Brees.  Brees even shared it on Twitter.  That would be a cute factoid, if it were true, especially given that Saban passed on a chance to bring Brees to Miami.  It was actually Rex Grossman, who easily beat the Tigers in both 2000 and 2001 as the Florida QB.  Brees might have been the last one who played the full game, but letting a backup play at some point doesn’t change who the starter was.  At any rate, it’s been over 20 years, so it would still be quite an accomplishment for Jayden Daniels.

Fun fact: This is not Rex Grossman.

Some LSU fans have mentioned Jordan Jefferson, the former LSU quarterback from 10-15 years ago (and older brother of Justin Jefferson), not the current defensive lineman. Jefferson didn’t start in 2011, so he doesn’t count; although he did help win the game… to the extent anyone on the offense deserves credit when only six points are scored in regulation.

Homefield Advantage?

There are a couple of interesting notes about the 2019 LSU team.  No SEC team has won in Tuscaloosa since then.  Obviously, I had to add the *SEC* qualifier because Texas won there this season.  I also wanted to mention that Alabama was favored by more points in that game than there are in this game.  I believe this is the fifteenth straight game in which Alabama has been favored against LSU, and this might be the smallest point spread over that time.  Also, the 2021 LSU team (our last trip there) was a relatively rare team who made it close in Tuscaloosa despite it being the first LSU team with a losing final record since 1999. 

I haven’t done anything with updating my rivalry blogs this year, but it has been a weird pattern over the years that LSU has typically done better at Alabama than they do against the Tide at home.  Neither record is great of course.  However, before 2019, LSU had lost three in a row in Tuscaloosa by at least 14 points in each game.  So it seemed like we were even losing that silver lining.

Joe Burrow takes off for a 19-yard run in Tuscaloosa on November 9, 2019. In the last two LSU wins over Alabama, Tiger QBs accounted for 734 combined yards. The 2019 win was LSU’s first over the Tide in 8 years. The 2022 win was LSU’s first home win over the Tide in 12 years.

A third consecutive strong showing in Tuscaloosa (and a fourth strong showing in five years overall against Alabama) would be a good sign even if it’s a loss.  I’m not looking for moral victories in advance (of course I was very happy about the actual victories in 2019 and 2022), but obviously you have a better chance to win games against a given team or in a given location if you have a habit of at least keeping such games close.  I think there is a psychological impact when you have a series of disappointing results in a given situation.  Even though there weren’t too many players in common, I think that 2019 team had something to do with the confidence with which LSU played last year (as well as 2021), and obviously I hope that continues. It’s also good to look for signs of an improving program (at least relative to Alabama, in this case) in the bigger picture.

Will the team who scored 10 points in 59 minutes against South Florida outscore the team who averages 44 points per game?

The fact that my answer is “quite possibly” means I’m not blowing off all criticisms of LSU’s defense or ignoring the quality of Alabama’s. It’s a little tongue in cheek because no one is actually asking this question, but similar silly questions are being asked to suggest LSU will lose. (By the way, the 44-point average does not count the Grambling game.)

Like I said earlier, I’m not going to tell you where to put your money if you’re into gambling, but I do want to go over some things to look for whether it’s out of financial interest or not. 

To pick up where I left off about the injuries, there are certainly some question marks on the LSU defense, don’t get me wrong; but the same is true of the Alabama offense especially.  I don’t understand how it’s OK to pretend all their ills are solved because their last half of football went well, but LSU’s defense is still what it was against Ole Miss (or worse), and LSU’s offense is still what it was against Florida St.  LSU was not playing a terrific Army team, but you can’t do better than a shutout as far as points are concerned.  They looked significantly better than they did against Grambling, and Army would probably blow out Grambling.

Anyway, in response to the Alabama predicters and supporters picking on the Florida St. and Ole Miss games, we could just as easily pretend Alabama’s offense is just as bad as it was against South Florida (who gave up more points to Florida A&M than they did to the Tide) and Alabama’s defense is just as bad as it was against Texas.  Another thing I realized was before the final drive that ended in a touchdown with 33 seconds left against the Bulls, Alabama had had more possessions (11) than points (10).

I don’t think any Alabama fan would have taken you seriously if you told him that Daniels would account for 277 yards in last year’s game after he only accounted for 139 against Auburn the month before, so I don’t think this fan habit of trying to cherry-pick stats from an earlier game to tell you what to expect in the next game is very reliable.  But to the extent it is, it can go both ways.

It’s true that LSU can’t rely on the defense to show up strong, especially not in the secondary.  LSU doesn’t have to have a terrific secondary for there to be some stops though.  Even though the Ole Miss game was historically bad defensively, LSU still got stops when there were long-yardage situations on second and third down.  Alabama has had a problem throughout the season in putting themselves in bad down-and-distance situations through sacks and penalties.

The Tide has succeeded on some deep shots, but I don’t think they’ve faced an offense (other than possibly Texas) that really penalized them for low-scoring halves like I think LSU can.  Bama does keep teams to relatively low scores, but LSU has been scoring in the upper 40s even in conference games.  Alabama has typically been allowing scores in the low 20s. 

I think LSU will likely score somewhere in the 30s, but that could mean LSU wins 38-24 or scores 31 and loses.  I’m not sure what Alabama’s upper limit is; but they did get up to 40 against Mississippi St., and I’m sure they weren’t desperate to score on every drive after they led 31-10 at the half.

If Alabama finds that kind of offense again and doesn’t let up, LSU could also conceivably lose by a couple of touchdowns.  I think LSU winning by a couple of touchdowns is slightly more likely, especially if they’re able to get up into the 40s and it doesn’t make strategic sense for Alabama to try to get points from their kicker.  LSU has a capable but less consistent kicker; so, if it’s a closer game, that could be an advantage for the Tide.

The Steele Curtain

Some Alabama fans have brought this up, and it’s legitimate enough to address it.  By far the best game plan against Joe Burrow was implemented by Kevin Steele when he was the coach of Auburn in 2019 and held LSU to 23 points, but there isn’t some magic that takes place just because the uniforms are the same.  Obviously, he can’t make his defenses consistently play that well, because this year’s Tennessee, Arkansas, and Texas A&M aren’t anywhere near the 2019 LSU team and all of them also scored in the low 20s against a Kevin Steele defense.  I think that’s a bit more relevant. 

Kevin Steele and Ed Orgeron at their introductory press conference before the 2015 season. 2015 was one of only two seasons since 2011 that Steele coached somewhere other than Auburn or Alabama.

Steele might be a genius in stopping what Coach O called “da Joe Brady offense,” but that’s not what Mike Denbrock runs.  This is much more of a ball-control offense than LSU was in 2019.  Even Saban has compared it to the triple option (2/3 of which involve a back taking the ball downfield).  Burrow could run when needed (see the picture above), but he didn’t run with the same ease as Daniels.  Clyde Edwards-Hellaire came through in the Auburn game I mentioned, but he had only averaged 78 yards per game before that even though LSU was often trying to run out the clock on large leads.  Logan Diggs has averaged 107 yards per game over the last four SEC games, so I don’t think it’s as tempting to see what LSU can do with runs and short passes.

Daniels doesn’t check down as much to the tight end Mason Taylor as last year (for obvious reasons), but he’s still there if Steele focuses on stopping long passes as he did in 2019.  TE Thad Moss had 7 receptions in 2019.  If Daniels throws it to Taylor that many times, he may go for 100 yards.  Also, Steele obviously doesn’t control the offense.  The boom-and-bust offense that Alabama runs now isn’t likely to minimize the LSU possessions as the Bo Nix Auburn offense did in 2019.

That’s all I have to say really about things to look for as far as X’s and O’s, but I did come across some other items worth addressing.

Common Opponent and Why Alabama is Favored

I’m sorry if what I’ve covered is not too illuminating about who’s going to win, but we could have made similar competing arguments last year (although the teams were more balanced), and the game went to overtime.  The reason the line is closer this time is that there wasn’t a recent common opponent that made Alabama look a lot better.  Last year, Alabama had lost to Tennessee by 3 on the road, and LSU had lost to Tennessee by 27 at home.  Both games were within the previous month.

There is a common opponent this season that Bama fans have brought up, and that’s Ole Miss.  One difference is both teams played the Rebels in September rather than October.  Alabama only beat them by 14, and LSU-Ole Miss came down to the final play (similarly to how Alabama-Tennessee ended last season, even though Ole Miss won by a couple more points).  It is a good point total if you add the two margins of victory together, but we aren’t talking about a close game versus a blowout.  Also, rather than homefield advantage magnifying the difference between Alabama and LSU vis-à-vis the common opponent, it’s a mitigating factor this year.  If they were focused on the common opponent, the gamblers this year would have Alabama favored by a lot more than 3 points, which is essentially just the home advantage (although maybe that’s only part of it in this case).  They’re basically telling us that what they’ve seen from these two teams is close to dead even in the aggregate. 

Another reason one might lean toward Alabama is they are the more proven team even if there weren’t one fewer loss.  They’ve played three teams that were in the top 20 at the time they played them and have won the last two (2-1 overall).  In between those two, they won a game in College Station (where LSU has lost three games in a row, by the way). LSU may finish with a better schedule, but the Tigers have already played their FCS opponent and have already played Auburn, which for now is not as good as Texas A&M. LSU is 0-2 against top 20 teams, although Missouri was #21 (AP; #22 Coaches) and has since improved to #12 (CFP).  These things do not tell us who will win matchups on the field, but there is something to be said for being tested.

SEC West Implications

I don’t want to imply that LSU is going to win this game not to mention win out, so I’ll start with saying if you’re an Alabama fan, you can book your tickets (or at least your hotel room) to Atlanta the second the game ends if they win. Alabama likely wouldn’t technically clinch though because theoretically Ole Miss can represent the West if the Rebels win out AND Alabama loses to Kentucky and Auburn.

But I did want to mention one other factual thing a lot of people are getting wrong.  LSU is still the favorite to win the West if they do win out even if Ole Miss beats Georgia.  Yes, Ole Miss would win a head-to-head tiebreaker, but head-to-head means it’s just those two teams.  I suspect Alabama will beat Kentucky and Auburn, so that would make it a three-way tie with all teams 1-1 against the other two.

I guess it would be fitting for the last SEC West title race to come down to games like… Missouri vs. Tennessee on November 11 in Columbia. The Volunteers won by 6 touchdowns in Knoxville last season; but their point total dropped by over 30 against Alabama from last season, so I wouldn’t look for a similar score this year against Mizzou.

I have a standalone blog ready if Ole Miss does beat Georgia (and no other relevant upsets take place) that will tell you everything you need to know, but for now just know a three-way tie (meaning LSU beats Alabama and no one else beats LSU, Alabama, or Ole Miss the rest of the season) will come down to whose SEC East opponents do best.  Ole Miss has already played Vanderbilt and will play Georgia; LSU has already played Missouri and will play Florida; and Alabama has already played Tennessee and will play Kentucky.  LSU’s opponents have the best combined record at the moment.

Final Pre-Bowl Ratings and Reaction to Major Bowl Selections

I don’t have that much to say about the LSU game itself.  I thought they would lose by single digits if they had a good day, and they basically would have lost by three if you take out two disastrous plays (and leave everything else the same): a blocked field goal from fairly close range that was returned for a touchdown, at least partly because all but a couple of players on the field forgot the rules (a 10-point swing), and an interception deep in LSU territory that resulted from a ball that was falling to the ground that hit an LSU helmet instead (this set up a fairly easy touchdown drive).

I’m not surprised that Alabama and Tennessee went ahead of LSU in bowl consideration given that they each only have two losses. I would argue if LSU had beaten Texas A&M, but my guess is that didn’t matter either. Rightly or wrongly (obviously wrongly in my view), Alabama was seen as the best SEC team after Georgia; and Tennessee’s win over LSU would have been a tie-breaker for a New Year’s Six bowl even if one didn’t punish LSU for the extra loss.

LSU is a superior team to Purdue, but sometimes it can be hard to be enthusiastic about playing such a game. I think the Boilermakers will be relatively excited to play in the game and probably would be to play in any bowl.

I do think Tennessee should have gone to the Sugar Bowl, but I guess we didn’t need another game between Alabama and Clemson to take place in the Orange Bowl. All the other New Year’s Six Bowls were fairly obvious match-ups according to the guidelines. USC vs. Tulane in the Cotton especially made sense as the two westernmost teams not bound to the Rose Bowl. They will play one another in a bowl for the first time since the Trojans won the Rose Bowl after the 1931 season. That game might have helped inspire the creation of the Sugar Bowl a few years later. USC and Tulane also split a home-and-home in the 1940s.

I had said Friday that Ohio St. should move up if another team fell out of the top four.  I didn’t realize that TCU and USC were far enough ahead of Tennessee and Alabama that they could afford a loss and stay in the top five.  Actually, my first draft of the ratings had USC ahead of Ohio St.; but then I realized that somehow Utah was being counted as a better opponent than they were. Not to bore the reader with the details, but I try not to penalize teams as much for losing a close game on the road, but that wasn’t meant to treat the winner as one of the top teams in the country as the weighted ratings do if not corrected.

The Trojans did beat one more top-25 team than Tennessee did.  It hurt the Vols that LSU lost in a way because now the Tigers are not in the highest classification of the weighted ratings.  Had LSU won, Georgia would not have fallen out of that classification (which right now is the top 8 teams).  In the bigger picture, USC beat 8 Pac-12 teams and Notre Dame whereas Tennessee only beat 6 SEC teams and Pitt. You can think the former is more impressive while still having the SEC as the best conference.

I’ve written about Clemson playing a deceptive number of quality opponents, so that’s why they’re ahead of Alabama.  The Tigers only beat one top 25 team (the same number Alabama has beaten), but they’ve beaten five other teams in the top 42 to Alabama’s one.  Illinois is #39 and was a missed field goal from beating Michigan, and #37 Pitt took Tennessee to overtime, so I’m not talking about opponents that anyone can take for granted.  (For an even better example, Florida is #51 and beat Utah.).  Alabama does have better losses, but that doesn’t make up for that volume of decent wins.

Florida LB Amari Burney intercepts a pass to win the game against Utah in Gainesville on September 3. In hindsight, it’s another reminder that there are a lot of teams (including those who fall well outside of the top 25) who are threats to some of the best teams, even eventual Power-5 conference champions. On Friday, the Utes beat USC to claim the Pac-12 title and eliminate the Trojans from Playoff consideration.

I think it’s appropriate that the respective Big XII and Pac-12 champions round out the top 10.  I don’t think Tulane, Troy, and UTSA would beat many of the 5 to 10 teams immediately below them, but I don’t mind that in my system teams like that are in the top 20 as long as they’re not in position for the Playoff.  I’m glad not to be in New Orleans to hear from the Tulane fans who don’t know anything about national college football listing all the SEC teams they’d beat with their one good team in a generation though. I have mixed feelings about Troy playing UTSA in the Cure Bowl. On the one hand, it’s good that they’re both playing a ranked team; but on the other hand, I wonder how they would do against one of the lower Power-5 bowl teams.

I know the Playoff is going to expand to 12 teams, but one or two of those teams being non-Power-5 champions is fine with me.  I will want most Power 5 teams to be eliminated with three or four losses.  This isn’t the NFL; I’m not willing to take a team seriously as the potential national champion if they lost 1/3 or more of their regular-season games.

I don’t like Oregon being ahead of Oregon St. even though I do think the Ducks have been the better team overall this year.  USC didn’t beat Oregon (both “civil war” teams played Utah), so it doesn’t hurt Oregon for the Trojans to lose.  USC did beat Oregon St.  It also helps that Oregon’s best non-conference opponent solidified its claim as the best team in the country.  Oregon St. played Boise and Fresno, and neither is as good as LSU anyway, so there wasn’t as much of a gain there (there was a slight improvement to strength of schedule though).

My formula did put the Egg Bowl rivalry in the “correct” order (according to head-to-head results) though, with Mississippi St. at #25 and Ole Miss at #26.  Of course, it helps that Mississippi St. played Georgia instead of Vanderbilt (all the other conference opponents were the same, and the two teams have the same record).

Some teams moved up or down more than they normally would given how many teams didn’t play.  I hadn’t worked on the weighted formula in a few years and it was still new before COVID, so there were still some kinks to iron out.  Given that most of the changes still made sense given the results and there was no turnover in the top 25, I don’t think I changed anything too abruptly.

I’ve updated the ratings after the Army-Navy game before, but this year I’ll just treat is as a bowl game since neither will play an actual bowl game.

Rank	Team	Last
1	Georgia	1
2	Michigan	2
3	Texas Christian	3
4	Ohio St.	5
5	USC	4
6	Tennessee	6
7	Clemson	9
8	Alabama	7
9	Kansas St.	15
10	Utah	14
11	Penn St.	8
12	Tulane	17
13	LSU	10
14	Troy	22
15	Texas	12
16	Oregon	13
17	Oregon St.	11
18	TX-San Antonio	25
19	Florida St.	18
20	Washington	20
21	UCLA	16
22	Boise St.	19
23	S Carolina	23
24	Notre Dame	21
25	Mississippi St.	24

For the ratings of all 131 teams and all FBS conferences (and independents), see here or click “Knights’ Ratings” above at any time while browsing this site.

Rivalry Week Top 25 and CFP Reaction

CFP Reaction

I ended up agreeing with the committee regarding the top 5.  I’ll be really surprised if two of the current top 4 lose this weekend.  I had said before last week that I thought Ohio St. would be one of the stronger non-champions were they to lose to Michigan.

Neither Tennessee nor Alabama, who each have two losses, had a non-conference game that was worth very much to compensate for the extra loss.  The SEC is better, but it’s not so much better that you don’t need either a very good non-conference game or a ninth conference game. 

I did think that LSU would have deserved consideration if they had finished with 2 losses, but the Tigers did get the ninth conference game when they qualified for the SEC Championship Game.  This would have given LSU a second win over a team who finished with a winning record in conference.

Anyway, as to who #6 should be, I disagree with those who have Tennessee behind Alabama.  Tennessee not only played the #1 team in the country by virtue of playing in the SEC East, but they also beat both of the top teams in the SEC West.  Alabama didn’t beat anyone in the top 6 (there are 7 teams per division) of the SEC East, and they also didn’t beat the only team with a winning conference record (LSU) in the SEC West.  The Tide did lose two games in the last second, but I think beating more good teams should count for more than how close the losses were.  Alabama didn’t have to beat a team like either team who beat Tennessee.  Texas was a better non-conference opponent than Pitt, but that doesn’t make up for Alabama playing Vanderbilt as the extra cross-divisional opponent while Tennessee drew LSU, not to mention Georgia and South Carolina.

Ratings and Other Thoughts

I don’t think this technicality matters as far as Playoff arguments but something else that annoys me is if you lose a tiebreaker for the conference championship game, you’re still considered a divisional co-champion.  Even though LSU lost after clinching the spot in the championship game, Alabama can now claim they’ve won the SEC West 10 of 11 years (the exception being 2019).  I prefer the NFL approach.  If you lose the tiebreaker to the team that advances as the winner of the division, you’re not called a champion or co-champion.  The previous time the Tide lost it outright was also to LSU, in 2011.  Since divisions will cease to exist in about two years, I hope we can get at least one more outright win in the next two years.

Back to my rankings/ratings, you may have noticed the “weighted rank” doesn’t penalize as much for losses anymore.  I’ve compensated for that by making it a smaller component of the overall total, but it still does take record into consideration to some extent.  For instance, Vanderbilt had to play four of the five best teams by conference record in the SEC and is only #39 in the weighted rankings because the Commodores also have 7 losses.  Alabama only played two of those teams and is #15 in the weighted rankings largely because there were no other losses.

So, although when I first introduced the weighted rankings they were meant to stand alone, in no universe did I think LSU was #1 last week or that Oregon St. is #2 this week (after Georgia); but those are the teams (other than Georgia) most deserving of bonus points if you will given a combination of a good record and quality opponents.  I also think it’s right that Clemson lost an extra spot (from what they are in the original unweighted formula) because their weighted rank fell to #24.  Clemson just barely edged out LSU and Oregon St. 

Sometimes you have to hold onto your hat in the last 20 minutes of a Rivalry Week game.

One might come to the conclusion that I don’t give conferences other than the SEC enough of a chance with the weighted component, but there are five Pac-12 teams in the weighted top 10 and only three SEC teams.  All things being equal, LSU and Tennessee having such tough conference slates would have caused them to finish lower than Alabama in the standings, but they both beat the Tide and ended up with the same number of conference losses as the Tide. 

USC was the only one of those five Pac-12 teams to have a better weighted rank than unweighted rank.  This was because the other four all finished with three overall losses.  It also helped that the Trojans played Notre Dame.  This compensated somewhat for USC not having played Washington and Oregon.

The other teams in the top 10 of the weighted rankings are Texas and Michigan.  Michigan is doing well being that they only played two teams in the top 40 in my overall ratings, but of course being undefeated helps.    Texas has the opposite situation: a number of top-40 opponents (4) but also a number of losses (4).  Texas has also played 5 teams that finished between numbers 41 and 65 with only one opponent (ULM) below #85.

There are only a couple of the lower teams I thought needed a little bit of explanation beyond the results of last week.

It really hurt Florida St. that Clemson and LSU lost because those games were largely responsible for the Seminoles’ having an unweighted ranking of 14 and a weighted ranking of 16 last week.  Notre Dame’s loss to USC also had some collateral effect upon the ACC as a whole as well given that the Irish beat both of the ACC title contestants and another team (Syracuse) who went .500 in conference and finished 7-5 going into the bowl game.

The only other team who seems somewhat out of place is Boise St.  The win over Utah St. wasn’t the most impressive (although to be fair, the Aggies had won 5 of 6 going into the game), but the three teams who had beaten the Broncos all had “good” weeks.  The Broncos’ worst loss, UTEP, is still not a good team; but the Miners improved their strength of schedule considerably by playing UTSA.  You probably know what happened with Oregon St. (who beat Boise St. in Week 1) and why their stock improved.  Also, BYU improved its strength of schedule with the win over Stanford (who played in a good conference and somehow beat Notre Dame…. Best wishes to departing head coach David Shaw, by the way. How he made it so long is beyond me).

Boise St. LB Ezekiel Noa sacks Fresno St. QB Logan Fife in the third quarter of what was at the time a close game in Boise on October 8. The Broncos outscored the Bulldogs 20-0 in the last 20 minutes of the game to win 40-20. A rematch will be played for the Mountain West title tomorrow, also in Boise.

I also noticed there were some games that weren’t included the last time or two I had updated the weighted rankings, so that may have played some role in why Florida St. fell after a loss and why Boise St. rose so far after a win over a now-6-loss opponent.  I think that’s also the main reason UCLA fell so much last week and rose so much this week. Without correctly factoring in how good USC was, it made the loss to the Trojans look worse than it should have; and this is now corrected.

Regardless, I like the process I’ve followed this year because it’s been a lot more stable.  I don’t like to say a given team is top 10 one week and not in the top 25 the next or that six or seven teams are in this week’s top 25 but weren’t in last week’s.  We don’t really find out that much about a team in one game, especially not when it’s 1 of 12 games, so I don’t like to see much volatility later in the year even if there are some adjustments in the methodology.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Georgia	1
2	Michigan	4
3	Texas Christian	3
4	USC	7
5	Ohio St.	2
6	Tennessee	8
7	Alabama	9
8	Penn St.	10
9	Clemson	5
10	LSU	6
11	Oregon St.	16
12	Texas	18
13	Oregon	11
14	Utah	12
15	Kansas St.	21
16	UCLA	23
17	Tulane	20
18	Florida St.	13
19	Boise St.	—
20	Washington	24
21	Notre Dame	15
22	Troy	14
23	S Carolina	—
24	Mississippi St.	—
25	TX San Antonio	22
—	N Carolina	17
—	Ole Miss	19
—	Coastal Caroliina	25

For the detailed ratings of all 131 teams, see here or follow the link in the heading for “Knights Ratings” at any time while browsing the site.

LSU @ Texas A&M Post Mortem

As I’ve done the last couple of weeks (including on Thursday), I’m going to wait until the College Football Playoff standings come out for detailed analysis of the remaining competitive teams (which of course no longer include Clemson or LSU), but you can see my ratings here.  I will comment briefly that I think it’s appropriate for a couple of different reasons for USC to be ahead of Ohio St. at the moment, so I commend the polls for coming to that conclusion as well and doing so decisively.

I’ve also updated the LSU-Texas A&M Rivalry Blog, which was first written before the 2010 Cotton Bowl.  Jimbo Fisher may have a worse record as Aggie head coach than Kevin Sumlin did overall, but he’s 3-2 against LSU compared to Sumlin’s 0-6 record.  It’s also the third time in those five games that the team with the better record lost on the road. 

Jimbo Fisher walks the sidelines as the LSU offensive coordinator before the BCS championship/Sugar Bowl in New Orleans in January 2004. He now has a winning record against his former employers.

I started writing this before the game ended, but I think there will be a few reactions to the LSU-Texas A&M game that aren’t accurate. (ESPN confirmed this this morning, saying “Jimbo Fisher EXPOSES LSU” in the headline of their YouTube video about the game. If the title is something that low-IQ, I don’t even click on it.  So I’m not making a point-by-point rebuttal, but I will elaborate more below.)

I don’t think it was trap game or that LSU was looking ahead.  It was the next major-conference opponent for two weeks.  Yes, there was a big game coming up against Georgia; but the players knew they had some things to clean up after the Arkansas game.  Texas A&M had beaten Arkansas earlier in the year after all.  The Aggies had suffered some injuries since then, but so had Arkansas.  Everyone knew it was a talented, dangerous team.  This isn’t a coaching staff that would have distracted the team with an early preview of Georgia (Kelly confirmed this with the media), and winning the game yesterday would have actually taken a weight off of them.  Maybe you shock the world, but even if you don’t you have a great bowl game no one expected you to be in to fall back on.  Now that’s in doubt.

My impression is that it was the opposite of looking past the opponent.  I think some of the LSU players were too nervous and playing not to lose.  It’s easy to feel unease in a hostile environment.  If there were some consideration of A&M’s record, I definitely think the thought was more, “How much would it suck if we lost to a team with that record?” than “Forget all the great athletes they have, we’ll beat A&M easily because their record isn’t good.”  

Playing not to lose was cited by multiple people as why Alabama lost to Tennessee, and I got a similar vibe here.  I think that is a more frequent problem with the top teams than “looking ahead”.  The Tigers also seemed like they were playing tight against Arkansas, and they weren’t looking ahead three weeks.  Arkansas just didn’t have the athletes (or they weren’t playing well enough that day) to capitalize.

I would cite a combination of rivalry, revenge (for last season when LSU won with the lesser team), and wanting to take out an overachieving team that was possibly in position to make the playoff without a loss.  Also, they knew it was the last chance to play a game for several months (or ever in some cases).  It doesn’t make up for how badly A&M underachieved of course, but there is only so much you can do in one game.

Yes, A&M was up three touchdowns midway through the fourth quarter (I’ll get to the circumstances below), and I think some will say LSU didn’t “show up,” but a game getting away from you doesn’t mean you never showed up.  I told Tennessee fans the same thing when some of them said that after the South Carolina loss.

LSU RB John Emery, Jr., scores the tying touchdown early in the third quarter in College Station yesterday. Emery would only finish with 55 yards from scrimmage but scored all three of LSU’s touchdowns (at least the ones that counted).

In the second half, LSU started with two three-and-outs on defense and a touchdown on offense to tie the game.  I wouldn’t say everything had gone according to plan, but that was a more comfortable position than LSU had had at a similar point in most of the previous games against major-conference opponents.  After three drives of the third quarter against Florida St., LSU was down 17-3.  At the same point against Mississippi St., LSU was down 16-10.  At the same point at Auburn, LSU was down 17-14.  At the same point against Ole Miss, LSU had just scored to get to make it 24-20 Rebels. LSU was also way down against Tennessee, but that was the only one LSU didn’t either lose as a result of a blocked extra point or win. I guess one problem was only one of those situations had taken place on the road, so this was more difficult.  LSU had some luck against Auburn that they didn’t have here.

Going back to this game in the third quarter, LSU had withstood the A&M rally and was in position to take the lead (and to take the crowd out of it) with another good drive.  With the ball and a 17-17 score, LSU gained six yards on first down.  That was more than they had gained on any first down in the previous drive (which ended in a touchdown), and the Tigers had only had to convert one third down.  But in two plays all of that momentum was reversed.  The Tigers were forced into a third down.  It was a third and one, which seemed like no big deal given what I said about some prior plays that half, but Daniels made what appeared to be a bad decision not to hand the ball off and tried to roll out.  He fumbled as he was hit trying to get around the end, and A&M returned the fumble for a touchdown.

LSU QB Jayden Daniels picks himself up from the turf as DB Demani Richardson is about to return Daniels’s fumble for a touchdown to give the Aggies back the lead, which they would not relinquish again.

It also didn’t help that LSU’s attempted comeback was thwarted by what I think was a completely incorrect call on the field in the last three minutes, but it still would have been unlikely for the Tigers to come up with another touchdown, a two-point conversion, and at least one other point after.  If that’s called a touchdown and there is no fumble, that’s nearly the entire difference in the game though. 

This isn’t sour grapes or blaming the refs for the loss, but this is something that has annoyed me for a long time even if it’s not against my team.  I think if you have the ball secured against your chest and your feet land in the end zone, that should be a catch, the play should be over, and nothing else should enter the equation.  In this situation, WR Jaray Jenkins also took two steps out of bounds with the ball secure.  It’s bad enough if the player then goes to the ground in the end zone, but it’s absurd to even talk about what happens on the edge of the turf as he’s avoiding people on the sidelines, but he did eventually go to the ground and drop the ball.  I’ve seen players toss the ball up in the air or spike it after demonstrating far less control over the ball.  This whole “surviving the ground” thing is nonsense in that situation. 

It’s the equivalent of a baseball catcher tagging someone out and then falling and dropping the ball on the way to the dugout.  Or an even better analogy would be a basketball player calls timeout as he’s going out of bounds and then drops the ball when he lands on someone’s lap, so the timeout doesn’t count because he retroactively didn’t have possession.

Rant over.  My point is it really was a close game, not that playing a 7-loss team close is something to brag about; but it wasn’t in reality all that different from the previous conference game.  I don’t think LSU was exposed or embarrassed or anything of the sort, just not the better team that day and certainly not the team that got more breaks. 

I noted the live stats as of the end of the third quarter, so it’s not the official three-quarter stats, but it’s close enough.  At that point, LSU had about 50 more yards in the air (but more incompletions) and about 50 fewer yards on the ground.  This included most of the Texas A&M drive that resulted in the Aggies going up two scores, so LSU was generally the better team before the fumble.  The one weakness in the stats was the third-down performance on both sides of the ball.  Four of 9 wasn’t bad for LSU’s offense, but giving up 7 of 10 to the other team is terrible, especially if they got a touchdown on one of your OFFENSIVE third downs. 

Speaking of third downs, another key play I wanted to highlight took place after the start of the fourth quarter.  LSU still had a decent chance of coming back as they were only down 14 with 11:30 to play and had forced a third and six from the A&M 27.  The Aggie quarterback Conner Wiegman threw deep downfield to WR Moose Muhammad III, who could not have been covered better, and even threw a little bit behind him.  But partly due to Muhammad’s timing in reacting to the ball, it came down right between him and LSU safety Sage Ryan even though both players were touching one another as the ball arrived (it was correct not to call interference either way).  The ball even touched Ryan’s fingertips as Muhammed was hauling it in. 

I couldn’t find a picture of the play I was talking about, but this was just a couple of plays later: another great catch by A&M WR Moose Muhammad, III, who finished with 94 receiving yards. His right arm may be extending a little bit too much, but it’s still a great catch; you also can’t fault Sage Ryan on this play either.

I knew the fumble-touchdown had been a dangerous turn in momentum (Brian Kelly said after the game, “That momentum swing, I don’t know that we ever recovered from it”), but that’s in hindsight.  It didn’t seem insurmountable in the moment.

That catch, though, gave me a strong conviction that it was not going to be our night.  I’m rarely that discouraged in a two-possession game with over 11 minutes left, but I think it was warranted.  If we couldn’t stop them despite covering a receiver that well, we weren’t going to be able to stop them.  At least not enough to outscore them by two touchdowns the rest of the way.

I do want to elaborate on why I think saying LSU was exposed was a low-IQ take.  A good example was 2018, when Ohio St. had beaten unranked opponents by an average score of 51.4 to 16, and the only team that had stayed within single digits of the Buckeyes was a top-ten Penn St. team in Happy Valley.  Then Ohio St. loses to unranked Purdue 49-20.  That’s exposed. 

“Exposed” is not when a two-loss team shows problems it had shown all year (slow start on offense, giving up a large number of rushing yards on defense) but unable to make up for it in other areas on that particular night. LSU gave up 222 rushing yards to Florida, and the Gators were playing from behind (and therefore less inclined to run than they normally would be) the entire second half.  Texas A&M never trailed, so it’s not surprising that they did even better.  The Aggies did end up on the wrong side of a couple more games, largely due to injuries of key players; but they’re not a dramatically different team than Florida is.  Exposing an opponent isn’t confirming a weakness that other similar teams have exploited in the past.

Also, if any exposing was done, it wasn’t Jimbo Fisher doing it.  Two of the plays I highlighted were defensive plays, and the offensive play (or plays if you include the touchdown in the picture) was a great individual effort by Muhammad. It wasn’t a brilliant call or a great pass.  Without that catch, the Aggie offense would have had only two touchdown drives against three three-and-outs in the final 50 minutes of game play.  You’d like them to have zero touchdowns over that span of course, but that’s not being exposed by the other team’s play-caller.

Anyway, I think most reasonable people predicted 8 wins or fewer for LSU, maybe 10 on the high end after a bowl game, so having 9 going into the game is still something to be very proud of.  Most people predicted more wins for Texas A&M. I actually wish we didn’t have to play Georgia, but there is a chance something crazy could happen.  I thought LSU was going to get blown out by Tennessee in 2001 (the last time LSU made the SEC championship game with three losses), but they weren’t.  Regardless, for a team that was so out of it 11 months ago that they barely had enough players to play an embarrassing Texas Bowl to get to #5 in late November was impressive.

The College Football Playoff Picture with Two Games Left

I wanted to start by saying happy Thanksgiving. I thought it was best to get this out today since there is only one game, which is probably not of crucial importance.

Because they have been so dominant until now, Georgia is the only one-loss team I can see finishing ahead of either LSU with two wins in the final games or USC with two wins in the final games.  The loser of Ohio St.-Michigan will not have anything on their resume similar to Georgia’s wins over Oregon and Tennessee.  It could be an interesting argument if TCU loses or if both LSU and USC lose though. I don’t automatically discount non-champions (even with the same number of losses), but I believe they should be looked at more skeptically.

Strength of Schedule

I touched on this last week, but something that many basic fans either don’t grasp or don’t bother to look into is how much schedules vary.  Most conferences are not like the Big XII where it’s a pure round robin; but even in the Big XII, there are still three non-conference games.

I wanted to go over who is on the schedule of the following teams that have a realistic chance at the playoff.  I’ll go over the top four teams of the respective conferences and the biggest non-conference game.  I’ll mention TCU last because I think most people’s sense of their schedule is accurate.

LSU: Georgia (plays December 3), Alabama (win), Tennessee (loss), Ole Miss (win), Florida St. (loss).

Georgia: LSU (plays December 3), Alabama (did not play), Tennessee (win), Ole Miss (did not play), Oregon (win).

USC: Oregon (not played; possible conference championship opponent {NPPCCO}), Washington (NPPCCO), Utah (loss), UCLA (win), Notre Dame (play on Saturday).

Ohio St.: Michigan (plays Saturday), Penn St. (win), Iowa (win, may play again), Purdue (NPPCCO), Notre Dame (win).

Michigan: Ohio St. (plays Saturday), Penn St. (win), Iowa (win, may play again), Purdue (NPPCCO), Connecticut (win).

Clemson: North Carolina (plays December 3), Florida St. (win), Pitt (did not play), Duke (did not play), Notre Dame (loss).

TCU has beaten the following: Kansas St., Texas, Oklahoma St., Baylor, and Texas Tech.  Out of conference, the best win was over 6-5 SMU.  As I discussed in the last blog, the Horned Frogs will play either Kansas St. or Texas for a second time in the championship game. 

Former walk-on Stetson Bennett IV (pictured above throwing on the run against Florida in Jacksonville last month) helped lead Georgia to its first national championship since 1980 and has the Bulldogs well-positioned for another.

Early Resume Comparison

I’m not making predictions about the remaining games, but I’ll discuss the teams as if I’m comparing them at the end of the season.  For instance, if I say LSU will have beaten Georgia, what I’m talking about is the only scenario in which LSU is a contender. I don’t expect LSU to come particularly close to beating Georgia.

The committee does not consider the wins a team would have at the end of the year, or Clemson and USC would be higher.  Those are the only two above who have two really decent opponents left.  I think it’s harder to have to win successive games like that.  Even moreso with USC because it would be three strong wins in a row: UCLA, Notre Dame, and then the #2 Pac-12 team.

If Iowa beats Nebraska, which is highly likely, LSU and TCU will be the only teams to have played every other top-five team of their respective conference.  I do think the quality of LSU’s top opponents would make up for the extra loss if TCU were to lose a game.

I know it doesn’t seem like either Big Ten team would be missing a big resume bullet point by not playing Purdue, but Purdue has one fewer loss than Illinois, which led Michigan with about one second left on the clock last week.  Also, if you’re not really missing any competition by not playing one of the top five teams of your 14-team conference, that doesn’t say much about your conference schedule.

As I suggested, I’ll be impressed by USC if the Trojans manage to win the next two weeks, and I would not be bitter about it if they were to edge out LSU.  I tip my hat to the committee for having LSU #5 right now.  I think it shows they understand the lists above, and if the last two games barely put USC ahead of LSU, so be it. 

That’s not to say I don’t think LSU would have an argument.  One key point is USC’s loss thus far.  Utah lost to a mediocre SEC team and beat USC.  That suggests to me that USC would have more than one conference loss if they played at least four teams who finished higher in the SEC than Florida did.

This comparison only takes place if LSU wins, so we would either have an SEC non-champion having blown out USC’s best win at the beginning of the year or we would have USC avoiding one of the more dangerous teams in its conference.

Teams Who May Lose Late and Be Considered; Why Clemson Might Deserve a Spot if They Do

Putting LSU aside, Ohio St. would be a very interesting contender if they lose to Michigan.  I think they would compensate for having two fewer games against the Big Ten West as a result of the non-conference game against Notre Dame.  This argument becomes even stronger if USC is knocked out of the running by Notre Dame.

Ohio St. WR Emeka Egbuka stretches for a touchdown against Notre Dame in September in Columbus. Although the Irish have had a couple of ugly losses since then, this still may be a key win for the Buckeyes.

One-loss Michigan would be a poor contender against anyone but a one-loss TCU though.  I know Connecticut beat Liberty and became bowl-eligible, but Connecticut is not a good team.  TCU is the only team in this discussion with a similar lacking best non-conference opponent.

Maybe the committee disagrees, but I would prefer a one-loss Clemson to a one-loss Michigan.  The ACC wouldn’t be the reason, but playing two non-conference opponents with the kind of quality wins that South Carolina and Notre Dame have would make the difference for me. It would be two good non-conference opponents to zero.

As I discussed in the previous blog, one reason I give Clemson more credit so far than others do is if you play a series of let’s call them high-medium teams (not ranked but above average) such as Louisville and Wake Forest, you’re still exposing yourself to risk of a loss to a higher degree with each game.  Just ask Tennessee and Ole Miss.  They didn’t show signs of being vulnerable to teams like that over the previous month or two, but they got to the point of playing too many teams that were high-medium or better and apparently didn’t get up enough for every one. 

On the other hand, based on the above, you can imagine what the committee has probably said.  Even if these other teams are in equal conferences (the ACC is probably the worst of the bunch), Clemson has only played one team in the top five of its conference, and they lost to the only team they’ve played so far who would be in the top five of their conference.  

This conversation would probably only come up in seeding, but I wanted to address it anyway.  Some are assuming that Georgia will definitely be ahead of LSU even if they lose to the Tigers, but I’m not so sure.  If Georgia had to play Alabama and Ole Miss, it’s certainly possible they’d be entering the championship with a loss.  Right now, I think the non-conference game against Oregon resolves any doubt; but it becomes a more open question if both Oregon and Florida St. have three losses at the end of the season.  This wouldn’t matter in my ratings, but obviously how that SEC championship game plays out would influence this discussion.

Week 12 Top 25 and CFP Reaction

First, I want to note that I’ve updated the LSU-Arkansas series blog. I didn’t mention that if you didn’t watch the game, the final score is misleading. The LSU defense was extremely dominant, and the 13-3 late edge seemed almost insurmountable, although of course one more late play could have made the difference in the game. This was the third consecutive game in the series that was decided by three points and the third consecutive win by the road team, both firsts in series history.

Assuming I have time, I’ll write more about potential playoff scenarios later, but I’ll just make general comments about the ratings. I did wait to publish this until after the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings.

The Race for #5

Since someone will lose between Ohio St. and Michigan, both currently ranked highly enough to make the four-team playoff, there is a lot of interest in who #5 is or will be.

Although in my rankings (and in the CFP’s), LSU stayed ahead of USC, I don’t necessarily fault the rankings that allowed the Trojans to go ahead. Obviously, UCLA is significantly better than UAB and the combination of UCLA and Notre Dame is significantly better than the combination of UAB and Texas A&M; but I just hope that LSU and USC can switch places just as easily if LSU beats a much better team on December 3. Even in my ratings, I expect the Trojans will go ahead with a win (over Notre Dame) after the games this weekend.

The CFP committee doesn’t let us know how close USC is to overtaking LSU, so we will just have to guess there, but I do think if they didn’t move USC ahead now, it would indicate that either (1) they aren’t going to move the Trojans ahead next week either or (2) if they do, it would be a very close call and can be just as easily switched back by LSU beating a better team in the conference championship game.  Despite what Bo Nix says, I think Oregon (assuming they make the title game… more about the “civil war” opponent below) is still a good bit behind Georgia.  If Oregon loses, that makes it worse for USC regardless of whether the Ducks still make the championship game (I think they would need Washington to lose in that scenario.)

I do have Clemson ahead of LSU right now, but I also think a win over Georgia would overcome the deficit.  It may be closer than I would have thought previously given South Carolina’s win over Tennessee.  The Gamecocks have a reasonable chance of winning the in-state rivalry though.  That win by an SEC team would also give LSU a higher rating in comparison to other competitors for #4. 

I think I value many of the same things the committee does, but I think they have a dim view of Clemson for a few reasons. For one, they just don’t seem that capable of scoring the points to keep up with a good offense; and it’s just very rare that your defense can be dominant enough against a good team (and they were anything but against Notre Dame) to compensate. In my ratings, you can win every game 7-3 and you get the same number of points as if you win 77-3 or 77-73. (I do take off a little if you win close games by three or fewer at home though.). For another, although they have played a long list of above-average teams, they’ve only played two teams in the top 20, and they’re only 1-1 against those teams. Also, those two teams each have three losses apiece. When I add in the “weighted” ratings, that’s meant to give extra credit for playing some of the best teams; but the overall ratings do not have the extreme focus on best opponents that the committee has.

Shifting ratings of prior opponents has some impact upon teams moving up and down in my ratings, but I think they’re still pretty stable being that there were only two teams that fell out of the top 25 (and they both obviously deserved to).

Although I think every reasonable ratings system has Georgia #1, there are some shortcomings being that the Bulldogs didn’t play any of the top three teams of the SEC West. If they’d played Alabama or Ole Miss, it would help LSU more to win that game. At least before the Texas A&M game, Auburn (whom Georgia plays every year) looked like the worst team in the SEC West. Mississippi St. isn’t the best either, although maybe those Bulldogs will win the Egg Bowl. I think a two-loss LSU would be a deserving #4 regardless, but I’m just talking about the numbers right now.

Other Developments in the Rankings

Tennessee’s falling four spots was reasonable.  I think they should remain ahead of Alabama.  I don’t think head-to-head is a good reason alone (given that it means the worse loss is worse for Tennessee), but the fact that Tennessee has played Georgia and Alabama hasn’t is a good reason.  Both Tennessee and Alabama have played LSU in the same stadium, and we know how those games went.

It’s also helping LSU that Florida St. has been increasing its standing.  Although I generally like Florida St. better, I’m used to having more mixed feelings in their games against Florida because I usually want to make LSU look better.  But in this year, it’s the opposite since (although LSU has played both) I think it’s better if a team LSU lost to increases its rating instead of the fourth or fifth team the Tigers will have beaten doing so.

You might have expected some of the teams to fall more due to losses, but a loss to a good team this late in the year doesn’t hurt too much given that each successive game is a lower percentage of the total.  Even a loss to a team that is destined for a less-than-impressive bowl game isn’t catastrophic.  I have a couple of SEC results in mind.  If you’re Central Florida, you can’t lose to Navy though.

Oregon St.’s rise may seem unusual, but all of their best prior opponents have been improving. Fresno St. lost its first four games against FBS opponents but has won all six since then. Boise St. started 1-2 against FBS opponents and is now 7-3 in such games. Washington St. has won three games in a row to improve to 7-4 overall. You’re probably already familiar with the gradual improvements of USC, Utah, and Washington. Although USC was high in the polls all year, they didn’t justify it much until later in the season.

Without commenting on the Playoff, USC appears to be the team to beat west of the DFW Metroplex. After struggling to score at times in the first half, the Trojans scored touchdowns, including the one above by WR Kyle Ford on the first play of the fourth quarter, on their first four possessions in the second half to take a 10-point lead in the Rose Bowl on Saturday. After UCLA threw a late interception, USC held on for a 48-45 win.

Finally, Texas has improved in recent weeks as the Oklahoma win has gotten stronger and the Alabama and TCU losses have been hurting the Longhorns less.  Some may wonder how they could possibly be ahead of Kansas St., but you can’t just look at records and conference membership.

Even within the same conference, a better strength of schedule can compensate for a loss. Obviously, Alabama is a much better team than Tulane, and even Texas’s second-best out-of-conference opponent (UTSA) is comparable to Tulane (and they actually rate better as an opponent although not overall). It also helps that Texas did not play an FCS team. Kansas St. not only played an FCS team, but that team is only 3-7 within the FCS (3-8 overall). I think TCU playing Texas again would make for a better game, but I guess we’ll see how it goes.

The Horned Frogs finish with Iowa St. and most likely Kansas St., two of the old Big XII North opponents (only three of which remain in the Big XII after the departures of Nebraska, Colorado, and Missouri). The Wildcats play Kansas, the only other former Big XII North team still in the conference. If Kansas St. wins, they’re in the championship game. If not, they’d need Texas to lose to Baylor. Even though I already think Texas is the better team, I suspect the committee would like TCU better if they beat two-loss Kansas St. rather than three-loss Texas.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Georgia	1
2	Ohio St.	2
3	Texas Christian	3
4	Michigan	4
5	Clemson	6
6	LSU	8
7	USC	9
8	Tennessee	4
9	Alabama	7
10	Penn St.	11
11	Oregon	14
12	Utah	12
13	Florida St.	18
14	Troy	20
15	Notre Dame	15
16	Oregon St.	—
17	N Carolina	10
18	Texas	—
19	Ole Miss	16
20	Tulane	23
21	Kansas St.	21
22	TX-San Antonio	23
23	UCLA	13
24	Washington	22
25	Coastal Carolina	19
—	Central Florida	17
—	Oklahoma St.	25

Week 11 Top 25

This is kind of a rushed post. I always add the new rankings Saturday night or Sunday morning even if it takes until it’s sunrise for some of you; but for those who subscribe by email, it will not notify you when that is posted. Feel free to check whenever you get up on Sunday. I don’t always manage to post the conference ratings until Sunday afternoon though. By that time, I’ve also usually checked to see if any teams are out of place to make any needed corrections.

Until now, the top 25 in the blog was different from the computer top 25; but now that I’ve added the “weighted” component of the ratings, that will no longer be the case.

I apologize for this being so late, but normally I don’t even have to respond to anything work-related after 4:30 Pacific, but I was given a bunch of work right before 4:30 since one of my colleagues is on vacation. I didn’t want to have to scramble around at the last minute on Sunday, and of course I don’t want to be at all distracted on Saturday.

I also didn’t have time to update the Arkansas rivalry blog, but I should be able to update both that and the Texas A&M series this weekend. Obviously the A&M one will need to be updated again in about 8 days, so it’s possible I might wait until then.

LSU players gather around the LSU/Arkansas rivalry trophy in Fayetteville on Saturday. I can’t tell who the players in the back are, but the ones in front are (l to r) WR Jaray Jenkins, P Jay Bramblett, and S Sage Ryan.

I’ll only comment briefly about the top 25 given time constraints of it being late and there being games in less than 14 hours.

Commentary about Rankings Changes

Tennessee has passed up Michigan, but this is rather academic being that the Ohio St./Michigan winner is expected to pass up the Vols and remain ahead until the bowl season. The loser is expected to be behind the Vols and stay there until the bowl season.

With the win over Ole Miss, Alabama has passed up the Tigers, but this also likely doesn’t mean much as to the final pre-bowl ratings. If LSU loses a third game and Alabama doesn’t (unlikely against FCS Austin Peay or Auburn), Alabama will be ahead. If LSU beats UAB, Texas A&M, and Georgia, LSU will be ahead regardless of what the Tide does. I’m not making promises aout the top 4, but LSU may also pass up multiple other teams, especially those who don’t play a championship game, with wins in the remaining contests.

I doubt it has a bearing on the national championship picture, but the Pac-12 is very interesting. I was correct in suggesting people pay attention to the Washington-Oregon game last week. Putting the Huskies’ new rating aside, the Pac-12 now has four teams between #9 and #13. That’s interesting enough, but all four of those teams play another one of those teams this weekend. There will be two one-loss teams and possibly three two-loss teams in the conference heading into the final weekend. The championship now involves the best two teams, so every two-loss team after this week may still have a realistic chance if one of the winners were to lose next week.

I don’t have a whole lot to say about Texas-San Antonio (who mostly has moved up by virtue of not losing in not-very-good conference, or Oklahoma St., who has been in and out of the top 25 due to inconsistent performance.

But there is another interesting new team, which is Central Florida. You may have heard of them. The Knights will potentially unseat Tulane from a New Years Six spot by virtue of beating the Green Wave; however, there is also some potential drama in the closing weeks regarding crowning a champion of the American conference. The Knights, who have beaten both teams already, will most likely play the winner of Cincinnati (which made the Playoff last year) and Tulane (set for November 26) in championship week.

I completely disagree with championship games that simply match the two best teams, particularly when they involve a rematch (which, if the winner has a better record, is completely unfair to whomever won the first time), but it does help make for some excitement.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Georgia	1
2	Ohio St.	2
3	Texas Christian	3
4	Tennessee	5
5	Michigan	4
6	Clemson	6
7	Alabama	11
8	LSU	8
9	USC	9
10	N Carolina	15
11	Penn St.	17
12	Utah	13
13	UCLA	7
14	Oregon	10
15	Notre Dame	18
16	Ole Miss	12
17	Central Florida	—
18	Florida St.	18
19	Coastal Carolina	21
20	Troy	24
21	Kansas St.	20
22	Washington	—
23	Tulane	16
24	TX San Antonio	—
25	Oklahoma St.	—
—	N Carolina St.	14
—	Texas	19
—	Syracuse	22
—	Liberty	25

Week 9 Top 25 and Final Thoughts about Saturday

I’ll have some things to say about LSU at the end, but a one loss team playing a two-loss team obviously takes a back seat to the match-up of unbeatens (Tennessee/Georgia) in Athens on Saturday. The two games will likely decide the participants in the SEC Championship Game (although Ole Miss will also control its own destiny if Alabama beats LSU), the winner of which has made every College Football Playoff thus far.

I didn’t want to put either one #1 at this point, but I do think it’s likely that whoever the winner is will pass up Clemson, who barely hung onto #1.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Clemson	1
2	Ohio St.	5
3	Tennessee	2
4	Texas Christian	3
5	Georgia	4
6	Michigan	7
7	Alabama	6
8	Ole Miss	9
9	Oregon	8
10	UCLA	12
11	USC	10
12	Illinois	17
13	LSU	13
14	Utah	21
15	Tulane	18
16	Kansas St.	—
17	Penn St.	15
18	Syracuse	11
19	Oklahoma St.	14
20	N Carolina	23
21	Oregon St.	22
22	Wake Forest	16
23	N Carolina St.	20
24	Liberty	19
25	Maryland	25
—	Troy	24

Top 25 Comments

The Tigers did slip in the computer rankings, which is normal after a bye week, but I’m still including a subjective component.  Clemson also lost some ground due to losses by Wake Forest and Syracuse.

I have been calculating percentages of the best rating (after my input) every week without publishing them, but I really wanted to emphasize it this week.  The closest team to Clemson last week was Tennessee, who had 88.99% of Clemson’s score.  This week, there are five teams who are closer to Clemson than that:
Ohio St. 99.83%
Tennessee 99.59%
TCU 98.17%
Georgia 97.96%
Michigan 90.42%

After some difficulty in the first quarter, the Georgia defense easily contained QB Hendon Hooker (6.6 ypa passing and 0.4 ypa rushing) and the Tennessee offense in a 41-17 win last November in Knoxville. Tennessee was a much different team though, having entered the contest at 5-4. Just as last year, the Bulldogs enter the Tennessee game undefeated.

With the top teams this closely packed, it’s much easier for a team to jump from #3 or #5 to #1.

The other teams aren’t playing the most impressive opponents either.  Clemson plays Notre Dame, Ohio St. plays Northwestern, TCU plays Texas Tech, and Michigan plays Rutgers.  The only one of those with a winning record is Notre Dame, who is unranked at 5-3.  The Irish are the only one of the four who is even close to the top 25.  Northwestern is one of the 10 worst teams in my ratings.  Clemson is only as highly rated as they are with my subjective input, so it should be particularly easy for Tennessee to become #1 with a win.  There is a little bit more uncertainty with Georgia; but I think when I add my subjective input, it would be enough to for them to move up to #1.

Ohio St.’s win over Penn St. gave them more points than Tennessee’s or Georgia’s (or TCU’s) wins last week, but obviously that will be balanced out on Saturday.  Michigan didn’t play a good team, but it’s better than not playing any team, which is what Alabama did.

Most of the shuffle at the bottom of the rankings can be understood by the recent wins and losses.  The only particularly remarkable change was Kansas St., who enters at #16; but I was very skeptical about them given the loss to Tulane.  Also, the win over Oklahoma St. was by far their best win.   

The only team to fall out was Troy, who did not play last week.  It can be difficult for teams from the Sun Belt and similar conferences to get enough points to stay in the top 25 week to week.

CFP Reaction

I’m glad I wrote about Alabama earlier in the week and waited on the rankings so I could mention the CFP rankings.

First of all, I really don’t like how the media overhypes these.  It’s not any kind of serious drama or dispute if Tennessee is #1 and Georgia is #4 or the other way around.  Whoever wins Saturday will be ahead.  The loser Saturday will still have a decent chance if they go undefeated.  I do think it’s right to value one win over Alabama and another at LSU more highly than what Georgia has done thus far.  It’s great that they blew out Oregon two months ago, but that shouldn’t count for more than two big conference games in the last month.  Also, if you give Georgia credit for margin of victory over Oregon, you should take some credit away for Missouri and Florida.

LSU is 10^th, and I don’t think they’re that good; but there is an expected loss coming.  I think if LSU wins they should definitely be in the top 10.  If LSU finishes with three losses or fewer, they’ll be in a decent bowl.  That would be true if they were #8 right now or #12, which I think would be more appropriate.

Alabama is #6, and I don’t see what the problem is there.  We all know if Alabama has one loss and is the SEC champion (If they finish with only one loss, they’re guaranteed to be the champion; and it would take multiple bizarre results for them to win it with two losses) they will most be in playoff.  I don’t see what the gripe would be with Clemson, Michigan, or Ohio St.  Michigan of course plays Ohio St., and Clemson at least would pass up the loser of that game and at least the loser of the SEC championship.  I’ll be surprised if TCU finishes the year undefeated anyway; but even if they do, we can expect a lot of upheaval around them.  So again, I don’t think anyone is “snubbed” or has a reasonable grievance yet.

LSU/Alabama Final Thoughts

I wasn’t going to elaborate further after the previous blog about the Alabama/LSU game, but now that I’m discussing the teams, I did want to draw attention to a new entry of a vlog I mentioned before, “College Football Nerds”.  I don’t always appreciate what they have to say, but I at least like what the second guy said.  Alabama winning by a touchdown seems like the most likely single outcome.

I am not expecting a great defensive struggle though. Some people thought that about Mississippi St., Ole Miss, and Florida.  The only game that really was a defensive struggle was Auburn, but I don’t think that’s likely to repeat itself.  If the LSU offensive is ineffective, I think eventually the defense will be overwhelmed like it was against Tennessee.  I mentioned before that I don’t think Bryce Young is Jaxson Dart or Robbie Ashford or Will Rogers where the defense is going to crack the code and Alabama will suddenly be unable to score for 40 minutes or whatever.

LSU QB Jayden Daniels suffered some knee problems, which seemed to limit his confidence and his ability to keep plays alive, and left the October 1 game at Auburn early. Daniels has not seemed similarly affected in subsequent games.

Too much was made of the Auburn game.  LSU did give up a fair number of yards in that game, but they were just on a few plays early on.  Auburn’s inability to have sustained drives was still an issue.  Also, LSU’s lack of passing yards in that game probably isn’t applicable to other games either.  They were in extreme ball control mode that they will not be in against Alabama unless LSU has a lead well into the fourth quarter.  It was also that way because Jayden Daniels was playing hurt and then started having trouble walking, so Brian Kelly took him out.  The coaches don’t trust Garrett Nussmeier, the backup, to throw downfield.  As long as Auburn couldn’t score, there was no reason to allow him to.  Alabama won’t go 40 minutes without scoring like Auburn did.

Then the hosts of College Football Nerds tried to bootstrap the Auburn game into the Tennessee game to make it seem like it wasn’t a unique circumstance.  One of them said something like, “Sometimes you get the Auburn/Tennessee LSU, and sometimes you get the Ole Miss/Florida LSU.”  Just because they were both low scoring outputs for LSU doesn’t mean they were similar games.  LSU had 300 passing yards against Tennessee and 80 against Auburn.  LSU got well into Tennessee territory multiple times, but they were never in a situation where settling for field goals or trying to focus on ball control made any sense.

It’s also not really surprising that the LSU offense seems more comfortable at home.  There are multiple transfers, including Daniels; and there are two freshmen on the offensive line not including the primary receiving tight end.  Nonverbal communication doesn’t take place as well with players who are less familiar with one another, and verbal communication is a challenge in a hostile environment.  This happened on both sides of the ball in the Auburn game especially.  That was LSU’s first true road game.

If this game were in Tuscaloosa, even though LSU has historically done better there than in Baton Rouge, Alabama should be favored by 14 or more.  Alabama also can be a different team on the road than they are at home.  The game could play out exactly like the Tennessee game did, so I’m not saying to bet the farm on LSU beating the spread; but I think if that game were played 10 times, that would have been one of the largest margins of victory.  Every key moment went against LSU.  Alabama seems like a similar team to Tennessee.  It was just luck of the draw at the end between the field goal kickers, and the game was in Knoxville.  I don’t see any way at all the game Saturday looks like the Auburn game though.

Happy Birthday/Halloween to the Coaches & The Scary Story of the LSU/Alabama Series

Intro

Being that it’s a bye week, I don’t have anything to say about the prior LSU game other than what I said to accompany the previous top 25 blog.  I won’t do a detailed LSU/Alabama preview like I did with Ole Miss, but I have a few general thoughts.  I don’t usually post blogs this late, but I thought with it being Halloween and there being an NFL game with a bunch of former LSU players in it, people would be up.

This is the best preview I’ve heard so far. You can skip the first few minutes and the last minute or so.

I don’t really believe in astrology, but I guess it’s sort of appropriate subject matter today.  I wanted to note for any who find it interesting that since the last time either of these teams played a game, both Brian Kelly and Nick Saban have had birthdays (Saban’s is today), so they’re both Scorpios like I am (although I was almost a Sagittarius, and Kelly was almost a Libra… maybe that’s what stopped me from being a multimillionaire with a job in sports). 

Their respective ages (Saban Is 9 years and 360 days older, for what it’s worth) are seen by many as a detriment, especially in this era of 30-something offensive coaches.  Even if I were impartial though, I would look forward to this game because I think you have two coaches with some patience and wisdom (they’re not going to panic if they’re down a couple of scores or try to do anything weird to put the game away if they’re up) but also coaches with high expectations and attention to detail who will let players know promptly if they mess up.  Some people might think it’s mean or regressive, but I relate better to coaches who are willing to vent a bit than I do to the easygoing “player’s coaches” or the ones who just robotically move on to the next play.  I like to see a more old-school combination of professionalism and emotional investment.

Early Thoughts About Saturday

I see a range of outcomes, sort of like I did with Tennessee.  LSU winning easily is unlikely for myriad reasons, but anything from a close game to an Alabama blowout seems realistic.  There might be a few good plays on defense that help, but for the most-part I think the LSU defense is going to be beaten more often than not, along the lines of Alabama/Tennessee this year, LSU/Alabama in 2019, and the Alabama/Clemson national championship games.  I don’t think LSU allows 52 unless Alabama has a very high number of possessions and/or very good field position (due to turnovers, three-and-outs, bad special teams, etc.), but high 30s may be unavoidable. 

After being behind 28-10 midway through the second quarter in Knoxville on October 15, Bryce Young led the Alabama offense to 39 points in the next 2 quarters. I think LSU will need to keep them below that number for the game.

The Tigers have had sustained drives in recent weeks, sometimes multiple drives in a row; but I think it will be more difficult to do that against Alabama than it was against Ole Miss and Florida.  I also don’t think LSU can afford its characteristically slow starts because I don’t think the Alabama offense will just sort of hit a wall like Mississippi St.’s and Ole Miss’s did while the Tigers can take the lead and pull away over multiple possessions.  You can’t just diagnose their schemes and watch Bryce Young become ineffective like you could for some other quarterbacks. Alabama might have a slow 10 minutes of game play at one or two points, but the offense never really shuts down. 

I didn’t save the link or a time stamp or anything, but I did hear some commentary from the LSU media that annoyed me.  There is a show I normally like called Hunt and Hill, where former LSU running back Jeremy Hill talked about how when he played the Miles coaching staff would bring up Alabama a month ahead of time.  Hunt Palmer (the co-host if you couldn’t guess) defended the former coaching staff for adding hype to the Bama game.  He said it wasn’t possible to pretend it wasn’t a big game. 

That’s a false dilemma.  Whatever you tell them or whatever routine you have isn’t going to stop them from knowing that they have to raise their level of play more against Alabama than they did against New Mexico, for instance; but there is a danger of increased insecurity and trying too hard. 

You don’t have to lie in order to concentrate on one game at a time and not act like a given game is life and death.  You can’t tell a team that their whole lives rest on a single game for a month and then expect them to lose that game and be ready to play the next.  Even if they win, the next week can be difficult to get up for. 

I think Nick Saban exaggerates a little when he calls these greater narratives that the media hypes up “rat poison,” but the point is you do all you can to avoid it in order to minimize and counteract its impact to the extent possible.  A team is much more confident if you instill a sense of routine. 

Saban made a less dramatic point this week when he talked about an individual player, former LSU defensive back Eli Ricks: “I think it’s important that he just, y’know, goes into this game and bes (sic) himself and doesn’t think he has to do something fantastic.”  Obviously if he follows his assignments and also does something fantastic (that’s not unduly risky), Saban isn’t going to complain; but the point is the first priority is to concentrate on adhering to the system in place and the plays that are called.  If there is a little bit of extra energy you can channel into such tasks, great.  Regardless of this game potentially deciding the SEC West, the game means something personal to Ricks; but the same applies to players who might be tempted to take chances or depart from things they normally do well and consistently because it’s a big game.

Historical Notes and Observations

I don’t think this game is like some of the Alabama/LSU games 8-12 years ago where LSU loses its primary goals and lacks enthusiasm afterward, but I’m glad we have a coaching staff that isn’t likely to lose its focus and professionalism for a given opponent.  Other than his statement that it’s a privilege to play important games like this rather than a reason to be nervous or insecure, there wasn’t a single sound bite to focus on, but Kelly made similar general points during his press conference.

Going into the 2015 game in Tuscaloosa, LSU was undefeated and ranked #2 in the country with a Heisman leader at running back, but the star running back of the game turned out to be Derrick Henry (2) rather than Leonard Fournette. LSU lost the next two games as well and fell out of the top 25. Alabama would defeat Clemson for another national championship.

Transfer Portal

I think there are a couple of things about the current transfer portal era that help too. 

First is that I think Alabama has been weakened by the addition of players who weren’t originally recruited to go there and either continued bad habits from high school or picked up bad habits at their prior program.  This is probably part of the reason we saw a much sloppier Alabama team against Tennessee than we’re used to.  I also think LSU is much sloppier now than they were in the early years of Les Miles and than they will be in future years under Brian Kelly, but Alabama and LSU are much closer in that regard than they have been in prior years. 

Also, despite the ability of Bryce Young to improvise, Alabama is usually much more robust on third down than they are this year.  LSU was mediocre in some games this season, and they still do better on third downs than Alabama does.  I’m not minimizing the difficulty I believe LSU will have in taking advantage of mistakes or failures of the Alabama offense, not am I minimizing Saban’s ability to clean up any sloppiness in a bye week.

The other benefit I can see from the teams being a higher percentage of transfer players is that LSU doesn’t have this complex about playing Bama instilled into them, and Alabama doesn’t have a feeling of superiority that no matter what they’ll find a way to win.  I think it was overblown by some in the media, but I think we got a hint of this in the pregame against Tennessee.  Saban even said the team was more reserved than normal.  They weren’t chanting and didn’t seem as loose.  You’d think that if you dominated a series like that you’d be more confident even if you are on the road, but I just don’t think there is the same continuity with prior seasons as there was for those great LSU/Alabama games in the past. 

Obviously, in this case, the veteran players do remember LSU beating Alabama.  Even though LSU was a much more disadvantaged team last year, they hung in there pretty well on the road, only losing by 6.  The 2020 game against Alabama was horrendous for LSU, who didn’t have a good quarterback at the time and had a terrible defense; but if it didn’t affect things last year, I don’t think it affects things this year.

LSU QB Joe Burrow runs for a big gain in Tuscaloosa in November 2019, in LSU’s only win over the Tide since the 9-6 OT win in 2011. Burrow was less impressive in the game against the Browns tonight, but a number of Browns are also former Tigers.

Lessons from 2012 and 2014

I’ve covered some of this in my past blogs about the LSU-Alabama series, but I don’t think I approached it in response to this specific argument before.

I don’t think this affects the current players who were in elementary school at the time (if any are reading, stop now), but I wanted to recap a couple of games where I thought the players and coaches let Alabama get in their heads too much.  It would be nice to finally get one back at home.

(The last two LSU wins, in two fairly memorable years of 2011 and 2019, were in Tuscaloosa.  Since Bear Bryant’s hiring in 1958, LSU has only beaten Alabama five times in Baton Rouge. Nick Saban won two of the five for LSU {in three tries} and lost only one of the five for Alabama {against six wins in Tiger Stadium as the Alabama head coach).  The one loss by Saban was in 2010, the last year in which his team lost more than two games in a season.)

LSU did lose to Alabama in overtime in 2008, but I don’t think there was anything wrong with what the players or coaches did leading up to the game.  LSU QB Jarrett Lee had a big problem with interceptions (particularly pick-sixes) that year, but it was a general problem and not specific to Alabama.  Then, as I mentioned parenthetically, LSU did beat Alabama at home in 2010.  I think both teams played normal games and the team that was a little better ended up winning.  The better respective teams also won close games in 2007 and 2009 {some say LSU was the better team on the day in 2009, but Alabama did go undefeated and LSU did finish with four losses} in Tuscaloosa.

Looking back, it all changed in the 21-0 national championship game in January 2012, as many know; but many don’t realize that it didn’t have to be that way.

In the game the next November, the Tigers went down 14-3 after the first half.  The halftime score was as bad as it was because of a failed fake punt and a missed field goal.  I believe there was another trick play by LSU as well.  There is a lot of psychology that goes into trick plays and field-goal kicking, and obviously the decision to call the fake punt might have betrayed some insecurity by the coaching staff.  Even though 52 weeks before that LSU had beaten Alabama to take a 5-2 series lead since Miles took over, it showed the coaches were approaching the game as if Alabama was a vastly superior team that they were trying to get lucky and knock off.  After the missed field goal that would have cut the lead to one point, the Tide took over and scored a touchdown right before half.  If LSU had just taken what they were given, the Tigers might have had better field position, leading to a touchdown or at least a closer field goal attempt and possibly would have prevented Alabama from scoring a touchdown at the end of the half.

Despite having been outscored 35-3 by Alabama over six quarters and having another disappointing end to a half, LSU still didn’t act defeated.  The defense would force four punts and a fumble to start the second half.  After a three-and-out to start the half, the LSU offense drove deep in Alabama territory four consecutive times.  So basically the game was even in the first half apart from the bitter and, and LSU had dominated the second half.  LSU just didn’t have the points to show for it. 

I mentioned the missed field goal in the first half.  After the third offensive drive of the second half though, LSU was nonetheless ahead 17-14.  I don’t know if it was more on the players or the coaches (I suspect the coaches), but it seemed like everything after that backfired. 

After a 35-yard pass from Zach Mettenberger to Odell Beckham to set LSU up at the Alabama 33, it seemed like the coaches were content to play for a field goal.  Normally a 6-point lead rather than a 3-point lead isn’t the best strategy at the end of a game, but there was still about 10 minutes left, so it made some sense if they had stuck with it.  They called two runs and one short pass.  But since this set up a 4^th and 1, they then decided to gamble and go for it, even though it seemed like this move contradicted previous play calls and it should have been a red flag how much trouble the Tigers had running the ball on the two prior plays that set of downs.  Of course, LSU was stuffed, and Alabama took over on downs.    

The LSU defense responded with a three-and-out despite what had looked like a shift in momentum.  The LSU offense also seemed undeterred.  After some more runs and shorter passes (I don’t know why they didn’t take more chances against what seemed to be a tired secondary when they had Jarvis Landry and Beckham to throw to, but that was not uncommon for LSU offenses of that era), there was a 13-yard pass to Landry and a 22-yard pass to Beckham.  All they had to do was keep the pressure on.  But no, the coaches wanted to play for a field goal again.  This was much less defensible now since Mettenberger had become more confident and now there were only about 2 ½ minutes to play.  Unlike the last time, it was pretty cut-and-dried that Alabama would take over with a chance to take the lead in the final minute whether you made the field goal or not. 

People focus on the screen pass for a touchdown on the ensuing Alabama drive, but the LSU defense should have never been put in that position.  I also don’t think prevent was the best strategy in the plays leading up to that.  If they had scored with 2 minutes left, that would have been better than having them score with 51 seconds left.

Alabama’s T.J. Yeldon scores the winning points in Baton Rouge on November 3, 2012. This was the start of a 5-game winning streak for the Tide in Tiger Stadium, which LSU hopes to break on Saturday. (It was the second of 8 straight wins overall in the series.) Alabama went on to win the national championship over Brian Kelly’s Fighting Irish the following January.

So I don’t think that feeling of inevitability of a loss against Alabama was really established until the second game of the 2012 calendar year.

2014 is a much simpler narrative.  With the convincing loss in Tuscaloosa in 2013, it was now a three-game losing streak against Alabama.  Still, the Tigers were able to play a close game, more along the lines of 2011 than 2012; but it was still a good contest. 

After LSU had opened the second half with a field goal to tie the game at 10 (it was the opposite of 2012, when the Tigers punted on the first possession of the half and then played well offensively), there was nothing but punts by both teams until Alabama took over at their own 1 with 1:50 to play.  On second down from the 5, the Tide fumbled, giving LSU a huge gift.  Unlike in 2012, it seemingly didn’t matter whether they played for a field goal or not.  All they had to do was make sure the clock ran and kick a field goal on fourth down if needed.  Of course, it didn’t work out that way. 

After a first-down run, there was some pushing and shoving on the line.  The referee who made the call should have been fired on the spot since there was no reasonable way not to either call no foul or to call offsetting penalties, but you still don’t give them that opportunity.  Fall down and play dead.  If Alabama doesn’t stop the after-the-play shenanigans then, you’ll get a call from one of the refs.  If they do, you get the last laugh anyway.  Anyway, so the penalty stopped the clock.  It also took a realistic possibility of a touchdown off the table, and LSU was only able to run the clock down to 50 seconds before kicking the go-ahead field goal.  Then, instead of kicking it away, they tried to be cute and call a squib kick.  That kick went out of bounds, setting up Alabama at the 35 with no time taken off the clock.  Even if it had not gone out of bounds, a squib kick only takes a few seconds off; and I think it would have been better to give Alabama farther to go to get into field-goal range.

Like in 2012, the LSU defense had finally been battered just enough that they gave up points.  This time it was only 3 points, but it didn’t matter in the end since Alabama would win in overtime.

I don’t fault the coaches for not doing this, but I actually thought LSU should have broken the unofficial rules and gone on offense first.  This would have given the defense more of a break.  I wasn’t surprised that after the Tide drove 55 yards in 50 seconds they were able to drive for a touchdown with unlimited time.  I also wasn’t surprised that the LSU offense went four-and-out after being so ineffective since the first drive of the second half.  Maybe once regulation ended it a tie, it was all over anyway. 

January 2012 might have been when the mortal was turned into a vampire or the day the coffin was built, but I think that day was the first nail in the coffin of the Les Miles era.  Too bad we had to deal with some kind of undead Dracula/Frankenstein abomination for nearly two more years.