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SEC and Overall Rankings Weeks 2 and 3

In College Football, General LSU, History, Post-game, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on October 12, 2020 at 11:57 AM

Unfortunately, I didn’t have time to write anything last week. I wouldn’t have had time this week if it weren’t for the holiday today.  I’m still trying to catch up at work from everything that wasn’t done during the shutdowns.  Last time I wrote about how badly LSU did in a game they won in a blowout the next week.  It would be nice to have a repeat of that. 

I definitely didn’t think both Florida and LSU would be coming off of a loss before the season or even going into last week.  LSU has four games against currently top-15 teams on the schedule.  Even with wins in the other three (Ole Miss has a great offense, and Arkansas has a win and two close games against good teams; I don’t have anything too complimentary to say about South Carolina, but they may be as good as or better than the Missouri team LSU just played), that would leave the Tigers with a 4-6 record.  If there is ever a year when you need a non-conference schedule it’s when you have 5 returning starters, and two of the big ones have missed three games combined.  There have been years without a winning record in conference since LSU’s last losing season in 1999 (3-8), but this year a losing record in conference is a losing record period.  I’m not sure if 5-5 gets a bowl game this year.

The development of the passing game, led by Myles Brennan, has been one of the few bright spots for the LSU team so far.

More details about the games and teams later.  I’m going to show the Week 2 lists first.  I think it’s better than trying to do two weeks at a time.

Week 2 (these are based on SEC weeks) Rankings

SEC

  1. Alabama
  2. Georgia
  3. Florida
  4. Tennessee
  5. Auburn
  6. Arkansas
  7. Ole Miss
  8. Mississippi St.
  9. LSU
  10. Texas A&M
  11. Kentucky
  12. South Carolina
  13. Vanderbilt
  14. Missouri

Inter-conference group

  1. Clemson
  2. U. Miami
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Notre Dame
  5. North Carolina
  6. Oklahoma St.
  7. S. Methodist
  8. Virginia Tech
  9. Brigham Young
  10. UL-Lafayette

Week 3 Rankings and Comments

SEC

  1. Alabama
  2. Georgia
  3. Florida
  4. Texas A&M
  5. Auburn
  6. Tennessee
  7. Arkansas
  8. Ole Miss
  9. Kentucky
  10. Missouri
  11. Mississippi St.
  12. LSU
  13. South Carolina
  14. Vanderbilt

Inter-conference group

  1. Clemson
  2. North Carolina
  3. U. Miami
  4. Cincinnati
  5. Oklahoma St.
  6. Notre Dame
  7. S. Methodist
  8. Virginia Tech
  9. Brigham Young
  10. UL-Lafayette

Rankings commentary

I was impressed by Georgia’s win over Auburn, but I still have some doubts due to their narrow win over Arkansas.  Arkansas is greatly improved, but they’re not a national-championship contender.  Tennessee doesn’t tell me much since the Volunteers have only beaten two of the five worst teams on my list.

Going back to Arkansas, they really should have beaten Auburn, but the officials were so anxious to blow the whistle on a spike they didn’t notice it went backwards.  I still think it’s appropriate this early on to group together teams with the same records though.

Texas A&M barely beat Vanderbilt, which has been blown out by LSU and South Carolina, so that’s why I couldn’t put them ahead of Florida.  They did just beat the Gators, but they were at home (with a real crowd… God bless Texas), and I really believe the Aggies only won because they were the last team with the ball.

Kentucky narrowly lost to Ole Miss and easily beat Mississippi St., so it made sense to put them a couple of spots ahead of the Bulldogs and one spot behind the Rebels.  Mississippi St. did better against LSU than Missouri did, but Missouri was missing a lot of players and has had a more difficult schedule. Mizzou also didn’t lose badly to a 1-2 team.

I don’t think anyone outside of the SEC would beat Clemson or even come close right now, so I considered not moving U. Miami down at all, but I was impressed with North Carolina’s win over Virginia Tech.  Not much else interesting has happened in the last couple of weeks.  SMU beat Memphis the week before last, so that’s why they’re there and the Tigers aren’t.

LSU

Missouri Recap and Criticisms

Back to those other Tigers.  I know Missouri is the Tigers too, but to avoid confusion I won’t call them that.  First, I want to say that Miles Brennan played great despite several incompletions (many not his fault), and I’ve already seen a good bit of improvement from the first week.  He’s also getting better at avoiding big sacks, so it’s more than just the stat line.  WR Terrace Marshall, the one veteran with extensive experience, and true freshman TE Arik Gilbert are also doing well. 

Those are the only places where I don’t have criticism.  For some reason, LSU refused to run the ball in the first half.  It’s not that they can’t run the ball.  Apart from three runs from the Mizzou 1 (on only one of which he scored), Tyrion Davis-Price gained more than 6 yards per carry; and John Emery, Jr., had two carries for 7 yards.  It’s not unusual for the running game to improve as the game goes on, especially with a productive passing attack to go along with it.  Obvious rushing situations also tend to work better when you find some kind of way to get the ball lateral to spread out the defense rather than just trying to pound it forward.

Weaknesses on defense are easier to exploit than weaknesses on offense.  There have been some good pressures; but if the opposing quarterback can avoid them and make a decent throw, there is a good chance it will be a touchdown. If it’s a pass out of the backfield or only a short distance downfield, it can go for 25 or 30 yards.  Missouri had three lost fumbles and a turnover on downs after a poorly conceived fake punt.  A team without those mistakes (especially if the Fighting Tigers don’t learn some ball control) could score 70 against LSU, especially if you consider that Mizzou was without some of its best receivers. 

All that said, LSU still should have won the game.  There is the obvious goal line stand at the end where they could not score from the one in four attempts; but on the drive before that, they had a first down from the Missouri 22.  If they manage a field goal there, a field goal on the last drive wins.  Instead, LSU suffered a sack and a delay of game penalty that set up a 3rd and 18.  They would try a field goal anyway, but it was blocked.  It may not have been had it been from a shorter distance with less need to drive the ball though.

LSU-Florida Recent Series

There haven’t been enough games between LSU and Missouri to do one of these, but here is my Rivalry Blog that covers LSU and Florida.

This rivalry has been played every year since the 1970s with only brief interruptions in the decades before that.  I’m definitely NOT calling an LSU win, but there has been a fair share of upsets in the history of the series, most prominently when Florida was the only team to beat LSU in 2003 (which they did in Baton Rouge), when the Tigers won the national championship.  In 1997, LSU was the first team to beat the Gators after the Florida national championship the year before.  The most-recent major upset was in 2017 when LSU rebounded from a loss to Troy by beating the #21 Gators (then led by current Razorback Feleipe Franks) in the Swamp.  That game started a tailspin for Florida that ended in the firing of HC Jim McElwain. 

I mentioned the location of a couple of the games since neither team has seemed intimidated by the other’s home stadium over the last couple of decades.  Part of it is they’re at similar latitudes (the heat and humidity, sometimes well into the season, gets to some of the opponents) and accustomed to big crowds and big games.  LSU has gone long stretches of time (such as November 2008 to September 2014) with no home losses except to Florida and Alabama, and LSU is often one of the few with a recent win at Florida.  For instance, LSU and Florida St. were the only two teams who won at Florida between November 2014 and early October 2017, when LSU won for the second time in a row at Florida. LSU was the only team to win at Florida between the end of the 2003 season and the last week of September 2007.  LSU, Auburn, and Ole Miss were the only teams to win there between the end of the 2003 season and October 2010 with LSU being the only one to do it twice. 

I mention in the Rivalry Blog that the most interesting part of the series in my recollection has been when Les Miles was LSU’s coach and Urban Meyer was Florida’s.  Both started with the respective schools in 2005.  Meyer left Florida after the 2010 season, and Miles was fired from LSU in September 2016.  Anyway, in those six seasons the two teams were even at 3-3.  All three LSU wins were by 4 points apiece while all three Florida wins were by 10 or more, but only one was a blowout.  The two teams combined for three national titles and five SEC championship appearances during that period. The fortunes of the programs have fluctuated; but the close games have continued after Meyer and Miles left their respective schools, including five in a row between 2014 and 2018.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who averaged over 10 yards per carry in the game, scores on a touchdown run against UF last season, helping LSU to a rare double-digit win over the Gators.

In the last 9 years, LSU has gone 6-3 against the Gators but only 2-2 under Orgeron.  Dan Mullen is 1-1 against the Tigers as the Florida HC.  He was only 2-7 against LSU while the Mississippi St. HC, but the two wins were in his last four years with the Bulldogs.  Mullen beat Orgeron the only time he faced him as the Bulldog HC, 37-7, in 2017.

I just updated the Vanderbilt Rivalry Blog