I was supposed to have time to do this on Wednesday but ended up having an unusually long (and rainy) work day instead, so I’m writing this on Thursday night (Friday morning for many of you).
Best-laid plans of mice and A&M boosters, I suppose.
Recap of LSU/Florida and Rivalry
It wasn’t because there was nothing to write about. I’m happy to make fun of Texas A&M and Florida, who lost a fifth straight to LSU. No one else has a losing streak to LSU that goes back to the national championship season (unless Vanderbilt’s streak of two counts). Although the LSU/Florida series dates back to 1937 and has been played annually since 1971, this was the first time LSU won five straight. Florida had once won nine straight from 1988 to 1996, but LSU now has its first lead in the series since then. If LSU doesn’t win another game this season, I’ll still feel some measure of success from that fact.
While it is unlikely that the LSU/Florida series will continue annually beyond that, the Tigers will at least make the return trip to Gainesville next year. I will endeavor to update the key Rivalry Series in the next week or so.
Not to be bitter about it, but the damage is done anyway. Having to play Florida every year, which included going to the Swamp every even year (apart from 2016), at least more often than not placed the Tigers at a disadvantage in the SEC West as far back as 1996. I guess it did in years before that too, but LSU was so bad it didn’t really matter. LSU had also played Auburn, which was strong for roughly the same time period, on the road in even years. The combined influence of those two games prevented LSU from winning the West in an even year until last season. The other SEC Championship appearances had been 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2011, and 2019. I acknowledge a certain crimson opponent played a role as well, but LSU’s unique struggles with them really only started in the 2012 calendar year.
LSU had to play Auburn every year by virtue of being in the West (that series will not be played next year), but had the Florida series not been made permanent, playing a different SEC East opponent could have made the difference in 1996 (when LSU would been one game better rather than losing a tie-breaker with Alabama) and 2006 (when LSU would have won a tie-breaker with Arkansas, but the additional loss made that irrelevant).
Given that the game was typically in early October though, it put the Tigers behind in 8-ball in several additional seasons. For example, LSU would have known going into the Arkansas game in 2000 that a win would have sent them to Atlanta (ironically, they went to Atlanta anyway to play in the Peach Bowl). Florida dealt LSU its first loss in 2008, and QB Jarrett Lee was never the same again. If it weren’t for his late-season penchant for throwing “pick sixes”, LSU could have easily won all but one other SEC game. LSU also nearly lost to Troy later in that season (seems like that would have taught the AD a lesson, but I digress). I doubt it affected the SEC championship games, but Florida also dealt LSU its first losses in 2012 and 2018, respectively.
Anyway, this was the largest win by either team since LSU’s 41-11 win in 2011. I’ll give the Gators credit for keeping it close for a while though. It didn’t help LSU that, as a result of a poorly-fielded kickoff, the Gators were able to score twice in just a couple of minutes to take a 28-24 lead in the third quarter. Jayden Daniels is a little bit more reliable for generating points than hoping for points off of turnovers and other miscues though, so the Tigers outscored the Gators 28-7 the rest of the way.
The LSU defense and coordinator Matt House continue to get a lot of flak, but keeping Alabama within one possession at least until the fourth quarter (if not the entire rest of the game) and keeping Florida from getting a lead the whole game would have been something to be proud of. It’s just not helpful if you put them on the field with their backs close to the end zone seconds after the previous drive ends.
Response to College Football Playoff Top 25
I’ll start by saying there is nothing really new in terms of grievances with the College Football Playoff’s top 25. Oregon’s being ahead of Alabama and Texas continues to make no sense if you care about schedule strength.
At least Oregon St. is no longer the top 2-loss team, having been passed by Missouri. I don’t expect the Beavers will stay the one of the top 2-loss teams indefinitely anyway given games against Washington and Oregon coming up. If they win both, I’ll be happy for them to be the top 2-loss team though. More on them below.
I’d also like them to care more about the schedules of teams like Arizona and North Carolina, but those are far enough down that I’m not sure they really matter. The Arizona/Arizona St. game might actually be game though. It looked like it was going to be a pillow fight earlier in the year.
Comments about My Ratings
I had a bit of time to smooth out the rough edges this weekend and I still liked the results to add the original ratings back in as I described last week. It also makes sense for some of the teams lower in the ratings because there is a number I have to adjust to factor in the bad teams so one bad loss doesn’t swallow multiple wins. I can re-add the original ratings without that adjustment though, which I think is the fairer approach.
I was also able to do conference ratings and strength of schedule. I will wait another week to see if the strength of schedule is giving teams enough credit in the ratings. That might also be a further adjustment to the formula. The same basic numbers and computations are being used regardless, it’s just been a continuing balancing act over years between giving credit for wins and giving credit for quality of competition.
It’s amazing that LSU, Ole Miss, and Penn St. have only seven combined losses and are still in the top 7 of the strength of schedule. Duke is the only other team in the top 12 with a winning record. Others in the top 20 with winning records are Utah, Kansas St., Kansas, Notre Dame, Missouri, and USC. I did opt not to put Kansas in the top 25 below due to some of the losses they have though.
I think it’s fair that even though Michigan and Georgia still don’t have great schedules that this recognizes their schedules are now comparable enough that they should be ranked ahead of teams with losses like Texas and Alabama. I think barring any major upsets (based on rank, not necessarily based on betting line), most people would agree that the Top 4 should be Big Ten champion, SEC champion, undefeated Florida St., and undefeated Washington. If Alabama were to lose the SEC championship, the next beneficiary (for now) of a potential upset should be Texas if they win out. This recognizes that.
The conference ratings weren’t very surprising. The SEC and Big Ten are neck and neck, but I think the SEC will pull away slightly next week given the out-of-conference games. There are non-conference games the week after that, but I don’t like Kentucky’s, Florida’s, or South Carolina’s chances against ACC opponents (I’m not too worried about Georgia), so that might bring the SEC closer to the Big Ten again.
The SEC would still be ahead after adding the new programs to the Big Ten and the SEC. That’s not really proof of too much about next season anyway given that Washington, Oklahoma, etc., can’t get as many good wins without hurting someone else in their respective future conferences next season. It might mean that the Big Ten will be harder to beat in future seasons; but on the other hand, maybe Oregon and Washington fall back to the more mediocre status they occupied not too long ago.
Washington is very close to getting the top spot in the computer ratings. I definitely think the Huskies will have that spot with a win, but they might lose it the week after (Washington St. wouldn’t count for nearly as much as Michigan would) and reclaim it the week after that (Oregon would count for a lot more than Iowa would). I expect to keep Ohio St. #1 here however for the next couple of weeks absent a loss or something really concerning. I’ll be very interested in how the ratings shape up after the conference championships though.
The initial line I saw had Washington barely favored over Oregon St., and then I saw one in which the Beavers were favored. I definitely think that’s the big game this weekend. As I’ve mentioned, the Huskies have a couple of very narrow wins at home, so playing a team that’s been playing well on the road might be a challenge. They might gain more support in the polls and the CFP with the win also, but those are much more stubborn than my ratings are.
I feel bad for Oregon St. that they lost a close game in Pullman when Wazzu was playing well, but the Cougars have gone down like the Hindenburg since then.
Three of the Honorable Mentions got promoted last week, so keep an eye on those. This week, all but one is in a Power Five conference, so that’s a noticeable change. That one other team is Coastal Carolina, the only one that hasn’t been ranked at some point this season.
My Top 25
Rank | Team | Last |
1 | Ohio St. | 1 |
2 | Washington | 3 |
3 | Florida St. | 2 |
4 | Michigan | 6 |
5 | Georgia | 7 |
6 | Texas | 4 |
7 | Alabama | 5 |
8 | Penn St. | 9 |
9 | Ole Miss | 8 |
10 | Oregon | 11 |
11 | James Madison | 10 |
12 | Missouri | 16 |
13 | Oklahoma | 13 |
14 | Iowa | 19 |
15 | Louisville | 14 |
16 | Liberty | 17 |
17 | Kansas St. | 24 |
18 | LSU | 25 |
19 | Oregon St. | 21 |
20 | Troy | 20 |
21 | Toledo | — |
22 | Tulane | — |
23 | Notre Dame | 23 |
24 | Utah | 18 |
25 | Memphis | — |
Honorable mention: Kansas, Oklahoma St., Coastal Carolina, North Carolina, Southern CA
Alabama, Arizona, Arizona St., Big Ten, Clemson, College Football, Florida, Florida St., Georgia, Georgia Tech, LSU, Missouri, North Carolina, North Carolina St., Ohio St., Oklahoma St., Ole Miss, Oregon, Oregon St., Pac-12, Pitt, SEC, Texas, UNLV, Washington, Washington St., West Virginia
Week 12 Top 25 and CFP Notes 2023
In Bowls, College Football, College Football Playoff, General LSU, History, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on November 22, 2023 at 5:04 PMRatings and College Football Playoff Response/Prediction
The first four teams are all undefeated now, just in time to lose at least one undefeated team this weekend. It happens to be the same top four as the CFP top 25. I can argue until I’m blue in the face about Oregon, but I guess people like flashy offenses and uniforms (not to mention years of a hype and a nationwide ad campaign for the quarterback) more than they like a good strength of schedule. It seems like they’re setting up the possibility of Oregon going to the Playoff in the event of revenge wins over Oregon St. (for last year) and Washington (for both last year and earlier this season).
I don’t think Washington, Georgia, or Florida St. (another undefeated not in the top four) have much chance of a loss this coming weekend, but losses by none of them (except maybe Georgia) would be much stranger than the time 4-7 Pitt beat 10-1 West Virginia in 2007 to help LSU make the championship game.
Florida and Washington St. have five wins apiece and are playing for bowl eligibility as well as in-state bragging rights, while Georgia Tech is already bowl-eligible. A late pick-six is likely the only reason Washington beat Arizona St., who is only 3-8. Despite one fewer win, Florida is a better team than Boston College, whom Florida St. only beat by 2. Georgia hasn’t really come close to a loss though.
Alabama and Florida St. both lost ground compared to higher teams as a result of playing FCS opponents. Alabama probably lost a bit less since the SEC gained strength with out-of-conference wins and because Chattanooga is an FCS playoff team.
I suspect that unless Washington and Georgia remain undefeated, removing Oregon and Alabama from the running in the process, the plan is that Florida St. will be excluded from the Playoff. I don’t know if this was the plan before their QB Jordan Travis was hurt or not.
I don’t think the CFP standings after Alabama matter too much for the national championship, but LSU fans (ironically) should cheer for Missouri and Ole Miss to lose for a better chance at a selection committee (or NY6) bowl or at the CapitalOne Bowl. It’s ironic because normally it would be a good thing if no one outside of the top 12 beat you and you had a top-10 win, but that’s not how the logic of bowl placement works.
It would be more logical for LSU fans to cheer for Alabama to beat Georgia (whom LSU did not play, if you haven’t noticed) in the SEC Championship game because that would retain the possibility of there being two SEC playoff teams. This might not be the year for that to happen though given the possibility of four undefeated teams going into championship weekend. There are also a couple of other teams (I mentioned Oregon; there is also Texas) who could be good one-loss candidates as conference champions. I think one-loss Texas will go ahead of one-loss Alabama even if they shouldn’t.
Anyway, the rest of this is just about my ratings, not the CFP rankings or what I think they will do.
The Big Ten is now much closer to the Pac-12, which is now #3, as they can look forward to taking the Pac-12’s two best teams (as well as UCLA and USC, which are more in the middle). They would still be behind the SEC, which will add the Big XII’s two best teams.
I mentioned Arizona St. earlier. Oregon’s win over the Sun Devils allowed them to get past Ole Miss, who beat an inferior UL-Monroe squad. Other relatively small differences in quality of opponents accounted for the movement in the rest of the top 20, apart from James Madison, who lost to Appalachian St. Oregon St. fell a smaller number of spots for losing to Washington, which was a close game as expected.
I had a little bit of trouble figuring out the last two. I strongly considered Oklahoma St. and Clemson, but they each had three losses that were all big negatives. Arizona had only one bad loss and one that was mediocre. Oregon St. and North Carolina St. only had one mediocre-to-bad loss apiece. Oklahoma St. had the best list of wins, but the others had comparable good wins. I didn’t hold the fourth loss (to Florida St.) against Clemson, but there weren’t really strong wins to counterbalance the other losses.
It might seem a little weird that North Carolina still has honorable mention status, but the four teams directly below them (Kansas, Utah, Tennessee, and USC) all lost also. Another interesting one is UNLV, whom I have never ranked in the top 25.
My Top 25
Honorable mention: Oklahoma St., UNLV, Clemson, Memphis, North Carolina