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Posts Tagged ‘Toledo’

2015 Pre-Bowl Conference Report

In College Football, Conference Reports on December 18, 2015 at 6:21 PM

1. SEC
2. Pac-12
3. Big Ten
4. Big XII
5. AAC
6. ACC
7. MAC
8. MWC
9. CUSA
10. Sun Belt

If anyone is interested in my blogger top 10 poll on MacApp, click here.

Before I begin, I just wanted to reiterate that I believe the correct way to evaluate conferences is to look at the games between conferences. I don’t think any result within a conference weakens it. So when I talk about wins, assume I mean non-conference.

Also, I will refer a lot to P5 and G5. P5 are the traditional Power 5 conferences: ACC, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac-12, and SEC. Notre Dame is included in this group since it primarily plays a major-conference schedule and is given special privileges in bowl consideration.

G5 are the other conferences: AAC (American), CUSA, MAC, MWC (Mountain West), and SBC (Sun Belt). Discussion of these will include BYU and Army.

WHY THE SEC REMAINS THE TOP CONFERENCE

I opted just to do one for the season overall rather than trying to evaluate everything that happened since the last conference report separately.

ACC-SEC Rivalry games

The ACC won three games against the SEC on the final week of the regular season; but with the relative weakness of the SEC East in recent years, this wasn’t that surprising. Any negative implications were overcome by earlier games between the two conferences.

South Carolina kept North Carolina's offense wrapped up to open the season, although the two teams went in drastically different directions since.

South Carolina kept North Carolina’s offense wrapped up to open the season, although the two teams went in drastically different directions since.

In hindsight, one of the best non-conference wins was by an SEC team that didn’t even make a bowl game when South Carolina beat eventual ACC Coastal champions North Carolina in the opening week. I don’t hold it against the Gamecocks that they later (in the final week of the regular season) lost to eventual ACC Champions Clemson by 5. The Gamecocks also suffered the worst loss of an SEC team by losing to the Citadel in controversial fashion, but you expect non-bowl teams to lose such games from time to time.

The two bowl teams who were playing non-bowl teams, Louisville and Georgia, both won their rivalry games. Louisville only went 1-1 against the bottom half of the SEC though, as the Cardinals had lost to Auburn early in the season. On the other hand, Georgia had no non-conference losses.

The only game that on paper should have been competitive—Florida St.’s win over Florida—is a credit to the ACC, although the Gators were showing major signs of weakness against such opponents as Vanderbilt (won by 2) and Florida Atlantic (won by 6 in overtime) in prior weeks. The Gators would have likely finished much worse in conference than 7-1 had they not played 6 SEC games by the end of October and had the remaining two games not come against two of the worst SEC teams.

Why the SEC Led before Rivalry Week

Watch-SEC-Football-Online-e1374758489890

To talk a little more about why the SEC had a significant enough lead to remain #1 despite the final week, we can look at another of the worst SEC teams, Missouri. The Tigers beat Connecticut, not a good opponent by any means; but the Huskies were the only team to beat Houston, so they certainly had the talent to beat Mizzou. The Tigers also had a really quality non-conference win over BYU.

I do give credit to the fact that teams like South Carolina and Missouri were even able to compete and in some cases win against good competition out of conference.

Vanderbilt only went 1-2 against FBS opponents out of conference, but they got a road win over a Middle Tennessee team that will finish with a winning record. They also were a late two-point attempt away from tying Western Kentucky in regulation.

This is why SEC teams have such good schedules in my formula. They are guaranteed eight games against tough teams at a minimum. It happens there were three teams in the SEC who went 2-6 in conference and one that went 1-7, but I think the results I discussed indicate they might beat some of the best teams in other conferences and would have a shot at some of the mediocre teams.

If before the season you took the top 14 teams in the preseason poll and had them play 8 games against one another, there may well have been some that finished 2-6 or 1-7. As you might remember, Auburn was in the top 10 in most preseason projections and was actually #3 according to the ESPN power rankings.

The numbers

You can accuse me of trying to spin the results in these arguments, but I really don’t need to.

By my calculations, the SEC won 81.5% of its games out of conference. That’s 3.1% better than the Pac-12, which is second. To show how big of a gap that is, the Pac-12 was only 2.0% better than the #4 Big Ten.

Yet you can turn on ESPN any day of the week and probably listen to someone tell you it’s a down year for the SEC because it didn’t place a bunch of teams in the top 10.

To be fair, all but a couple of the SEC teams played an FCS opponent whereas in the Big Ten (for instance) only half of the teams did.

I would point out though that Big Ten teams played an average of exactly two games per team against either the bottom four conferences (being the MAC, CUSA, Sun Belt, or MWC) or 2-10 independent Army. The SEC played six fewer games against that latter group.

Regardless, the SEC was similarly better than the other conferences when you subtract out FCS opponents. SEC 78.6%, Pac-12 75.9%, Big Ten 72.9%, Big XII 72.7%.

Strength of schedule

You might also quibble about FBS strength of schedule, but further analysis only strengthens these numbers.

Other than the SEC, the only conference to win a majority of its games against the P5 (adding in Notre Dame) is the Big Ten. I think the SEC wins out in FBS strength of schedule because it played five games against the AAC while the Big Ten only played one, which it lost.

I believe Houston, Memphis, Temple, and Navy were the best four teams in the G5 conferences as a whole, so that’s why I treat that conference a little bit differently. The four teams I mentioned only lost two conference games that weren’t against one another (unfortunately for Memphis, they played and lost to all three of the others). Apart from those two, the only non-conference game any of that group lost were Notre Dame’s wins over Navy and Temple.

In that context, I think it’s understandable that Ole Miss and Vanderbilt both lost to teams from that group. Clearly, Ole Miss’s loss to Memphis was a negative for the SEC. It’s a negative for any conference to have one of its top teams lose a non-conference game, but that sure is better than a team like North Carolina losing to South Carolina or even a team like Stanford losing to Northwestern.

The only non-AAC team with a strong argument for being among the top four G5 teams was Bowling Green, which lost to Tennessee, the same Tennessee team that lost late (in overtime actually) to eventual playoff team Oklahoma. Yet the Vols only finished in a four-way tie for fourth in the SEC if you combine the two divisions (so actually a two-way tie for sixth if you give LSU and Arkansas credit for being in the better division).

Speaking of the MAC, I think that Tennessee win helps to balance out Arkansas’s loss to Toledo. The Rockets did not play in the MAC title game, but they were in a four-way tie for the MAC West title and went undefeated against a good non-conference slate.

So losing to Toledo was not as bad as it was made out to be when it happened. I also mentioned here how Arkansas was better statistically in the game. It’s pretty clear that they learned as the season went on to better translate yards into points as Brandon Allen’s passing improved.

I mentioned the other conferences a bit above, but I’ll mention some things I left out below.

OTHER P5 CONFERENCES

big10_logo_detail

The best Big Ten win was when Michigan St. beat Oregon, but to be fair, Michigan St. won its conference and Oregon didn’t win theirs. So that’s much less of a boost in my view than Northwestern’s win over Pac-12 champions Stanford.

pac-12

Utah’s win over Michigan was the best non-conference win by a Pac-12 team, followed closely by Stanford’s win over Notre Dame, but neither one was a lower-ranked team beating a top team of another conference. I think if Notre Dame had played a full ACC schedule, it would have finished second or third, so Stanford should have won that game. The Big Ten East was a good bit better than the Pac-12 South (don’t get me started on why they put Utah in the South), but I don’t know that third in the Big Ten East is much better than tied for first in the Pac-12 South.

big12logo

I haven’t talked much about the Big XII because it didn’t do much. Another part of Arkansas’s early-season struggles was a loss to Texas Tech. That seems to be the best non-conference win for the Big XII. The champion of the conference was supposed to beat Tennessee, so that’s not it. Minnesota is 5-7, and that was the best opponent that Baylor, TCU, or Oklahoma St. played out of conference. There were no good wins by the lower half of the conference, although West Virginia had a couple of borderline-decent wins over Maryland (which was had some bad luck in going 3-9 this year but made a bowl last year and is still a major-conference opponent) and Georgia Southern.

ACC

Other than Clemson’s win over Notre Dame and the SEC wins mentioned, I didn’t go into details about the ACC’s other three wins. They were Purdue twice and Illinois. So I that FSU win over Florida was actually the conference’s best win.

G5 DISCUSSION AND BEST WINS

I mentioned the best wins by the MAC, CUSA, and AAC because they came against the SEC. That’s right, the best CUSA win was over Vandy.

The Sun Belt’s best win was San Diego St., which went undefeated in conference after losing to South Alabama.

The MWC’s best win was Boise St. over Washington. The Broncos finished in a four-way tie for second in the Mountain division. The Huskies finished with a losing record in conference, but you still don’t expect a loss in hindsight to a team like Boise.

The winning percentages tell you pretty well who belongs where.

One exception of sorts: I give the MWC the nod over the CUSA even though the CUSA had a slightly better FBS record because MWC teams also beat Virginia and Colorado. I know three wins, none of which were won by the conference champion or runner-up, weren’t against great teams. Colorado might not even qualify as mediocre. But I don’t think Vanderbilt by itself is really a comparison. I certainly can’t put Purdue or Central Florida ahead of any of those.

The AAC had a better FBS record than the ACC but not a better overall record. I sided with the AAC because it played only one fewer P5 opponent despite having two fewer teams, and it won more games against P5 opponents. It was very close though. Had Georgia Tech upset Georgia or had Army beaten Navy, for instance, that would have made the difference. This was the only change from the prior Conference Report.

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Week 11 Rankings and Comments

In General LSU, History, Post-game, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on November 15, 2015 at 3:05 PM

I don’t have very extensive top 25 comments. Here is the full 1-128 list.

I updated the LSU-Arkansas blog. This was the Razorbacks’ third win in Baton Rouge ever. I don’t have much to say about it, but I’ll comment briefly in my SEC Wednesday entry.

Alabama allowed some yards by the Bulldogs but held them to just six points.

Alabama allowed some yards by the Bulldogs but held them to just six points.

Alabama switched places with Clemson, and Notre Dame switched places with Ohio St. These were just due to quality of opponents for the week.

Ohio St. will stay ahead with wins since the Irish play Boston College next. Alabama and Clemson will probably stay really close to one another since they have similar opposition in the next two weeks.

Oklahoma St. could also leapfrog some teams with wins over Baylor and Oklahoma. Michigan St. could move up with wins over Ohio St., Penn St., and the Big Ten West champions (most likely Iowa).

Even though Utah is ahead, Stanford is the best-positioned Pac-12 team; but it doesn’t look like anyone in the conference will reach the top four regardless.

It still appears that the top G5 team will be the winner of the AAC (American), although the winner of the Toledo-Bowling Green game may have an argument if that team wins the MAC.

Rank Team Previous

1 Alabama 2
2 Clemson 1
3 Iowa 3
4 Ohio St. 5
5 Notre Dame 4
6 Florida 8
7 Okie St. 6
8 Mich. St. 10
9 Houston 16
10 Oklahoma 15
11 Utah 7
12 Navy 18
13 N’western 13
14 LSU 9
15 Stanford 11
16 TCU 14
17 Memphis 12
18 N. Carolina 22
19 Michigan 19
20 Toledo —
21 Baylor 17
22 Ole Miss —
23 Bowl Green —
bowlgrn
24 USC —
25 Wisconsin 24

Out of rankings: (20) Temple, (21) Miss. St., (23) BYU, (25) UCLA

Here are the previous rankings blogs:

Preseason

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Week 10

Week 2 Conference Report & SEC Detractors

In College Football, Conference Reports, Rankings Commentary on September 17, 2015 at 2:55 PM

Before I begin, I wanted to give the link again to the LSU-Auburn Rivalry Blog.

SEC Less Dominant, But Still Best

Once again, rumors of the demise of the SEC have been greatly exaggerated. The conference has a total of three losses in intereconference play.  This is one fewer than the Big XII, which has four fewer teams.  No other conference has fewer than six losses.

Also, the Big XII has half the number of wins over other Power 5 conferences. The only wins have been TCU’s close win over Minnesota in Week 1 and Oklahoma’s overtime win over Tennessee on Saturday.  The SEC has wins over Wisconsin, Arizona St., Louisville, and North Carolina.   On the other hand, it is a plus for the Big XII that three of the losses were by the apparently two worst teams, Iowa St. and Kansas.

The three SEC losses were by teams with a combined conference record of 5-19 last season though, so that’s not a huge disparity.  The opponents had a 64% combined overall winning percentage.  So I don’t think that even though Western Kentucky and Toledo aren’t in Power 5 conferences that somehow that reflects horribly upon the whole conference when they each beat a team which finished last in an SEC division last season.

I have a couple of comments about the Toledo game below.

The Vols celebrated early, but Tennessee's 4th-quarter collapse gives the Big XII #1 for the week.

The Vols celebrated early, but Tennessee’s 4th-quarter collapse gives the Big XII #1 for the week.

I will give the Big XII credit for having a slightly better week.  The only interconference SEC win of note was East Carolina, and of course Tennessee lost the heart-breaker to Oklahoma.  If that goes the other way, it’s another clear SEC win on the week.  I guess that’s what happens when you’re the best though.  You’re supposed to be clearly superior every week or people are going to try to bring you down.  (See “Conference Report” section at the bottom for more on the conferences.)

Auburn and Notre Dame In the Polls

I didn’t address this in my rankings blog, because I had barely looked at the polls when I wrote it.

This is sort of along the same theme of the SEC detractors being a bit off.  This may just be pro-Notre Dame bias, so the affect upon an SEC team might be incidental, but it’s ridiculous to me to not only have Notre Dame in the top 10 to start with but to move them up after they trailed Virginia in the final two minutes.

Then Auburn, which also won a close game over a team it should have been expected to beat comfortably, fell 12 spots in the AP poll.  How does that make any sense?

Granted, I moved Auburn out of my top 25, but I only had them 17th last week and 20th to start the season, so the game really only made a few small difference in my opinion of the Plainsmen.

Likewise, I moved Notre Dame down slightly.

One difference between the two for me is that Louisville lost to Houston, which significantly devalues Auburn’s win over Louisville.  That game was also closer than it should have been in hindsight.  The polls typically rely on how good the opponent SEEMED to be at the time and never give any consideration to prior games again.

Another thing is that I value overtime wins less than wins in regulation; but this does not seem to be considered very often, at least not unless it was a controversial game everyone saw like LSU/Alabama last year.

But for one to move up a spot and the other to fall 12 spots in one poll and 8 spots in the other means they’re not playing by the same rules.  Part of it might have been the difference between FBS and FCS, but Jacksonville St. has given a number of good teams close games and even beat Ole Miss in 2010. On the other hand, since 2009, Virginia has as many losses to FCS teams as bowl appearances (1).  I mention prior seasons because last week isn’t much basis to judge; but regardless, there is no reason to assume Virginia must be that much better to justify such different treatment.

Arkansas-Toledo Comments

It might seem like a silly thing to say, but Arkansas was pretty dominant until it came time to score thoughout the game.  They reached the red zone five times and only had three points to show for it.

It won’t happen very often that one team out-gains the other team 515-318 and loses 16-12. The Hogs only turned the ball over once, so that wasn’t the problem either. Arky also had possession for more than 15 minutes more than the Rockets did and had twice as many first downs.

The key was the red zone offense, which I mentioned above.  It’s like if a basketball team can run its offense perfectly fine and get open looks but just has a terrible night of shooting.  As Les Miles would say, Arkansas is still a capable team that has a want to compete, but if you’re playing an opponent that went 7-1 in its conference the season before, they might just take advantage when you’re that incapable of scoring points at key times.

Toledo’s one conference loss last season was to Northern Illinois, which Arkansas destroyed last year… on the scoreboard.  I thought it would be interesting to compare the stats of that game.  The Hogs only out-gained the Huskies 427-303.  Instead of having 15 more first downs, they only had 7 more first downs.  Instead of having a 15-minute edge in time of possession, they had only a 9-minute edge.  Final score: Arkansas 52, Northern Illinois 14.  Amazing how a blowout win can compare statistically to a loss in this way.

Conference Report

I mentioned #1 and #2, but the bottom two were also pretty easy.  The Mountain West went winless this week, and the Sun Belt beat its first FBS opponent of the season when Georgia Southern beat Western Michigan.  So now we just have to rank the remaining 6 conferences.

The Big Ten did well despite not finishing with a good record last week.  The record improved this week, but the conference suffered two losses that don’t look so good.  Maryland made a bowl game last year, so they shouldn’t be losing to Bowling Green even though that’s a MAC team that often makes bowl games (they’re not called “home for the holidays Green”).   Also, Rutgers losing to Washington St. at home is embarrassing.  If a team from the other coast comes to visit after they lose to an FCS opponent, you should win.  Rutgers hardly appears to be a conference bottom-dweller either.  The two Michigan teams beat the two Oregon teams though, so that’s a positive.

Speaking of the teams from Oregon, their conference (the Pac-12) didn’t really do anything to be proud of apart from one of their worst teams getting that win I mentioned in Piscataway.  So I rate the Big Ten slightly better again.

The AAC (American) knocked off Louisville (which lost to Houston) and Kansas, which counts for two more Power 5 wins than the ACC has all season.  Added to the Temple win over Penn St. in Week 1, this brings the total to three.

The MAC also had a good week with the wins over Arkansas and Maryland.  Marshall wasn’t a bad win either.  Even Eastern Michigan, typically one of the worst MAC teams, got a win over Wyoming.  Losing to Colorado and Georgia Southern caused them to lose out to the AAC though.

The ACC didn’t do much to help its cause.  Louisville lost, like I just mentioned.  I’ll still give them the edge for the week over the CUSA since at least none of their teams lost to Indiana and their champion from last season didn’t lose to Ohio U.

Below are the weekly and overall rankings.  The MWC might not seem logical on first blush, but #4 through #9 were not that far apart in week 1, so the MWC was really hurt in week 2.  It was close for overall #8, but the CUSA got the edge basically for not having Wyoming, which has lost to Eastern Michigan and North Dakota.

Rank Week 2 Previous Total
1 Big XII SEC SEC
2 SEC Big XII Big XII
3 Big Ten Big Ten Big Ten
4 Pac-12 MWC Pac-12
5 AAC Pac-12 AAC
6 MAC CUSA ACC
7 ACC ACC MAC
8 CUSA (t) AAC CUSA
9 Sun Belt (t) MAC MWC
10 MWC Sun Belt Sun Belt

Friday Night Musings

In College Football, General LSU, Rankings Commentary on November 1, 2013 at 9:37 PM
Despite two losses, the LSU Tigers still have not lost at home since the mishap against Alabama last season.  The Tigers of Missouri were not able to stay undefeated at home, however.

Despite two losses, the LSU Tigers still have not lost at home since the mishap against Alabama last season. The Tigers of Missouri were not able to stay undefeated at home, however.

This is later than I like to write blogs, because I know a lot of people (particularly in the more Eastern time zones) are asleep. But if I wait until tomorrow, I’ll be writing while games are on, so I’m writing now.

I’ve talked about this general topic before in reference to Florida St.’s initial BCS ranking, but I’ve also seen Missouri called a fraud, particularly now that they’ve lost a game, albeit in overtime and largely due to a bad day for the kicker.

“Now that they’ve *finally* played a good team, they lost” is one comment that stuck in my craw, whatever that means. Well, let’s look at some records that teams have apart from playing Missouri: Florida 4-2, South Carolina 5-2, Georgia 4-2, Toledo 5-2, Vanderbilt 4-3, Indiana 3-3. If you look at the overall records, it’s true that South Carolina is the only team without at least three losses, but Missouri gave three other teams one of three losses and nearly did that a fourth time. I know Toledo, Vanderbilt, and Indiana aren’t great, but they’re not bad 3rd, 4th, and 5th best wins. Having played 6 teams that are at least semi-decent does give Missouri a good enough schedule to deserve some respect.

Oklahoma, by contrast, has two pretty good wins in Notre Dame and Texas Tech, but what’s their #3 win? TCU or WVU? They play each other this weekend, and the team that loses will in all likelihood fail to even qualify for a bowl game. If TCU wins especially, it wouldn’t be surprising if neither made a bowl game. Louisiana-Monroe is probably the #5 win. I’m not saying I don’t understand ranking Oklahoma ahead of Missouri; but if you don’t pay special attention to which loss took place more recently and you put more of a premium on playing a number of decent teams rather than a couple of headliners, it also makes sense not to. For argument’s sake, I guess we can treat the respective losses (Texas and South Carolina) as roughly equal, although I personally think Missouri had the “better loss”.

Of course I did expect Missouri to lose a couple of games even before they finally lost one, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up with more losses than Oklahoma. But the Tigers still beat Georgia and Florida when I did not expect them to do so. There is nothing wrong with giving them credit for that for the time being.

I only had one small thought about my Tigers, the ones from LSU. Based on how different a team like Georgia is from earlier games and how strong Ole Miss has come on in recent weeks, I just wondered if LSU would be undefeated if they played Ole Miss in September and Georgia in mid-October. If LSU wins out and Alabama wins the SEC West, I’m still going to be annoyed that LSU had to play such an inter-divisional schedule in the first place, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on those results anyway. (I don’t know why I keep using old-time country expressions. I’m in my early 30s and from the suburbs of New Orleans.)

I have some ideas for upcoming blogs. I have one mostly written about potential Pac-12 expansion. For another one, I used to regularly do blogs called Conference Reports (you can see the tab above if you’re viewing this on WordPress), where I look at how the various conferences have fared against outside opponents. I can’t think of any major inter-conference games this week, so that can wait until next week. I also might do a blog about suggested NFL realignment, but that will probably just make people angry. It’s after 1 a.m. on the East Coast, so I decided to just go ahead and publish this and work on those later.

Week 8 Top 25 and Commentary

In Rankings, Rankings Commentary on October 23, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Top 25

rank / team / prior
1 Alabama 1
2 Notre Dame 2
3 Florida 5
4 Kansas St. 4
5 Ohio St. 3
6 Oregon 7
7 Oregon St. 6
8 LSU 12
9 TX Tech 8
10 Rutgers 11
11 Miss. St. 15
12 Louisville 16
13 Toledo —
14 Oklahoma 13
15 S Carolina 9
16 Florida St. 24
17 Boise St. 18
18 Stanford 19
19 W Virginia 10
20 Texas 23
21 Georgia 25
22 Clemson —
23 USC 21
24 Wisconsin —
25 TX A&M 14

Out of rankings: (17) Cincinnati, (20) N’western, (22) La. Tech

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Prior rankings:
Preseason
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7

Note about the SEC:

Mississippi St. is interesting at this point, even though they do have the games coming up against Texas A&M, LSU, and Alabama. The SEC has 9 of the top 27 best schedules and 11 of the top 44. The outliers are Alabama (#84), Mississippi St. (#107), and Georgia (#116). The bad ones may be better and the good ones may be worse, because when I factor in the third level (opponents’ opponents’ opponents), it evens out a little bit (or Alabama wouldn’t be in the top 3), but that gives you an idea of why Georgia is so low also.

Tennessee is Georgia’s best win, and they lost once again. Also, Georgia lost to South Carolina, which has since lost two in a row.

Not surprisingly, the SEC also has high numbers in the ratings. 4 in the top 11, 5 in the top 15, 6 in the top 22, 7 in the top 26. That’s half the conference in the top 26. There is a bit of a gap before the next SEC team (Ole Miss at #47), and then there is a four-team cluster (Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Arkansas) between #65 and #71. This leaves only Auburn (#97) and Kentucky (#107) as lower teams.

Overall comments:

I was a little unhappy that both Notre Dame and Ohio St. escaped with narrow home wins on Saturday, but as things stand, I still have to explain their positions. Even though Michigan St. (a team the Irish beat) lost, they lost to Michigan (another team the Irish beat), so that didn’t really hurt them. The other opponents went 2-2.

I have ranked Alabama #1 again here even though they’re now down to #3 in my computer ratings. But as of next week, I’m probably just going with the computer rankings. If Florida is a very narrow #1, I may still pick Alabama, but if Notre Dame wins again, I’m making them #1, assuming that’s where they end up in the formula. I’m also excluding Ohio from my top 25 since it’s not really possible to give them a rating according to the same rules as the other teams. I don’t know if playing Miami U. will improve their rating enough to correct this. So I’ll continue to exclude them until this can be done. The rankings on the ratings site are, as always, unaltered.

Ohio St. slipped two spots because South Carolina and West Virginia, respectively, were much better opponents than Purdue was. Oregon moved ahead of Oregon St. due to the relative quality of Arizona St. over Utah.

I don’t particularly like how when teams close in rank play each other, they’re repelled away from one another, but if the teams are close, this will even out over time. Texas A&M was gaining points while LSU played Towson and Auburn, and those don’t count for very much. If LSU loses to Alabama, they’ll be slightly negative over the next two weeks. Texas A&M could be significantly positive by beating both Auburn and Mississippi St. Both Texas A&M and LSU have losses to Florida, so most of the current gap is due to A&M having the additional loss but not LSU. Also, A&M has had a prior bye week.

If Texas Tech beats Kansas St., the Red Raiders will likely be the #1 one-loss team, but of course, a one-loss SEC team would have a chance to pass them up (again?).
Rutgers, Mississippi St., and Louisville mostly just moved up by default.

Toledo had a pretty good win over Cincinnati (a formerly weak undefeated) and also, Arizona (the only team to beat Toledo) finally got another decent win, not that they should have been expected to beat Oregon, Oregon St., and Stanford anyway. (I guess the Pac-12 scheduler was an Arizona St. fan this year. The Wildcats have yet to play a game against the Pac-12 South.) Arizona themselves was also helped by Oklahoma St.’s win over Iowa St. I noticed something odd. Arizona has played three #18 teams this year. Arizona still isn’t ranked, but since there haven’t been all that many losses by ranked teams, a win over a now-top-35 team still helps out a lot. If Arizona does start beating all or almost all the Pac-12 South, you may see Toledo, Oregon, Oregon St., and Stanford tend to move up more than would be indicated by their week-to-week competition.

Oklahoma fell a spot by playing Kansas, little better than a bye week. I think 6 spots was a reasonable fall for South Carolina. Florida St. went up rather dramatically, but U. Miami is buoyed by a good schedule. UNLV (vs. Boise St.) and Cal (vs. Stanford) didn’t count for too much.

I guess Tubbs broke WVU a couple weeks ago, they moved down a lot. The only team above WVU who didn’t win last week is South Carolina and they were too far ahead, so that didn’t help.
Texas improved moderately by beating a struggling now-struggling Baylor team. Clemson (over Virginia Tech) and Wisconsin (over Minnesota) also got moderately helpful wins, but their improvements were more about a team like Texas A&M losing and a team like Louisiana Tech, who had lost to A&M the week before, losing. Northwestern also lost. USC beat Colorado, which barely counts as anything.

So I think that explains most things. All of my top 5 have challenging games this week. Florida should have the easiest time, but I don’t think Georgia is nearly as bad as their game against South Carolina or Florida nearly as good as their game against South Carolina. Lower down the list, Cincinnati @ Louisville and Michigan St. @ Wisconsin could be interesting, although the latter is less important than it seemed a couple weeks ago. (Wisconsin seems to be about to wrap up the Leaders [with Penn St. and Ohio St. ineligible, and no one else with a win], and Michigan St. is already 2 ½ games behind in the Legends.)

Week 6 Top 25 and Commentary

In College Football, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on October 9, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Top 25

rank / team / prior
1 Alabama 1
2 Notre Dame 6
3 Ohio St. 15
4 S Carolina 11
5 Oregon 13
6 W Virginia 7
7 Florida 14
8 Oregon St. 4
9 Kansas St. 3
10 Stanford 9
11 La. Tech —
12 Texas 18
13 Iowa St. —
14 TX Tech —
15 Cincinnati 12
16 Georgia 10
17 Rutgers —
18 Miss. St. 19
19 Louisville —
20 LSU 2
21 Boise St. —
22 Florida St. 5
23 TX A&M —
24 Toledo —
25 Duke —

Out of rankings: (8) Washington, (16) UCLA, (17) Nebraska, (20) Clemson,
(21) Mich St., (22) Arizona, (23) Missouri, (24) Wisconsin, (25) Baylor

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Although I do rank Alabama #1 above, I know people aren’t going to be thrilled with the top couple of teams on my ratings site (can also be accessed via the headings above), but I’m happy with the top 10, and I think it will sort itself out as usual. Ohio St. has played 6 FBS opponents in 6 weeks, so that’s a considerable advantage over some other teams. Notre Dame has had one bye week, but it has played 4 BCS-conference opponents. The Irish’s opponents have also won an average of 54% of their games, and that’s factoring in their respective losses to the Irish. Notre Dame’s opponents’ opponents have won an average of 56.5% of their games. (FCS teams do not count toward these calculations.)

Nos. 3-6 include most people’s top two as well as South Carolina and West Virginia, who I feel have legitimately earned the most so far. Then the next three are Florida, Oregon St., and Kansas St. They weren’t preseason headliners, but you can’t say too much critical of their positions just looking at the resumes.

Then Stanford has had one of the best schedules so far with only one loss. Even San Jose St. has done well in other games.

After the top 10, there are too many teams that are only as high as they are because they don’t have any losses. A 1-loss team later in the year is more likely to be ahead of an undefeated Louisiana Tech or Ohio because they’ll have a lot more wins with which to overcome those losses.

I’m just going to throw a simple mathematical example out there if you’re interested. For instance, if you get one point for beating a good team and lose two points for losing to a good team and then get half a point for beating a poor team, this is what it would look like. 5-0 against poor teams = 2.5; 4-1 against good teams = 2. But the same calculation right before the bowls: 12-0 against poor teams = 6; 11-1 against good teams = 9.

The high SEC teams aren’t a result of some bias built into my formula. It’s pretty consistent all around. Kenneth Massey, one of the BCS computer rankers, compiles a list of the major publications as well as just about every unbiased top-to-bottom computer ranking and based on his averages of the rankings, the numbers are as follows: 3 in the top 3, 6 in the top 14, and 7 in the top 19.

That said, I’m willing to admit that the bottom SEC teams aren’t as good as they have been in past seasons. I remember one year Ole Miss was winless in the SEC but undefeated out of conference; but teams like Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and even Arkansas all have non-conference losses already. Eighth in the SEC on the list mentioned above is Tennessee at #45, followed by Missouri at #50. But the lower teams aren’t terrible either, as Kentucky is last in the SEC but #75 in the country. Every other conference has at least one team significantly lower than that, and all except the Big XII (with only Kansas lower, at #105) have multiple teams lower than that. My rankings are actually less generous toward the lower SEC teams than these sort of aggregate rankings are.
With at least the better SEC teams as good as they are, and most of its easy weeks out of the way (having had a bye week and having played Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, and Ole Miss), Alabama will have plenty of chances to move up. Unlike with the human polls, there is no deference to what a team’s ranking was the week before. So if for instance, Alabama were to beat South Carolina this week, they could jump over several other teams who won games against lesser competition.

In actuality, LSU plays South Carolina this week (and I’m more nervous about this than I was about the BCS championship game), and Alabama won’t play South Carolina (if at all this season) until the SEC Championship game. Alabama does still have divisional games against LSU, Texas A&M, and Mississippi St. The Tide’s inter-divisional slate (consisting of Tennessee and Missouri) isn’t exactly impressive, but they are both decent opportunities for points. What could happen is Alabama could be #1 after going through the divisional games mentioned above and then fall behind after playing Western Carolina and Auburn, but as mentioned, the SEC championship game should help out a good bit.

Last season, Alabama was stuck at #3 because it did not have the benefit of a ninth conference game, so it was FCS opponent, followed by Auburn, followed by no one.

SEC champions, on the other hand, have fared quite well in my rankings, both before and after I made a change to the formula, but I’ll mention the results since the change. Florida was #2 going into the BCS championship in 2008, moving into #1 after winning, but that team had a loss (also, this was before I compiled the strength of schedule myself). Alabama was #1 in 2009, Auburn was #1 in 2010, and LSU was #1 last year. LSU was such a strong #1 that even the loss didn’t knock them out of #1, and Auburn may have obtained the same result with a loss in the 2010 championship. Texas would have surpassed Bama with a win over them in 2009, however.

The other two undefeated top-ten SEC teams should be fine as well. Mississippi St. isn’t realistically going to finish undefeated anyway, but if they did, that’s the only SEC team I could see having problems if they did so.

I’ll end with a couple of general comments. Ohio finished in the top 25 published on my ratings site, but since I had to make some numerical adjustments just to give them a good enough schedule to be rated, I thought it best to put the teams that actually earned all their points higher on here.

There was more turnover in teams than I expected. This was partly due to a relatively eventful week (this week looks like a snooze, by the way). But I would note that none of the five teams I took out of the rankings last week moved back in with the introduction of computerized ranking. So my moves in an effort to be more objective were correct in those instances.

I never claimed to be the best prognosticator–I don’t pay as much attention to things like trends, key athletes, X’s and O’s, and margin of victory, since they don’t factor into my computer ratings–but I actually have done all right when tested this season. Of the picks I’ve made so far this year, I’m 41-9.

So while people get grumpy with me, I think I know just a bit of what I’m talking about when I offer other opinions.

By the way, while I’m still mystified by LSU’s lack of a running game and general offensive ineffectiveness after the first drive last week, I still feel I was correct in criticizing those who ranked some non-SEC team from the Sunshine State ahead of LSU after Week 5.