Top 25
rank / team / prior
1 Notre Dame 1
2 Alabama 2
3 Ohio St. 3
4 Kansas St. 4
5 Oregon 5
6 Florida 6
7 Georgia 10
8 Oregon St. 9
9 Louisville 7
10 S Carolina 11
11 Clemson 16
12 Nebraska 18
13 Florida St. 12
14 LSU 8
15 TX A&M 23
16 Stanford 13
17 Toledo 14
18 Texas 22
19 Oklahoma 24
20 La. Tech —
21 N’western 19
22 Rutgers 21
23 SJSU —
24 UCLA —
25 Miss. St. 20
Out of rankings: (15) TX Tech, (17) Boise St., (25) Tulsa
Full 124 permalink
Prior rankings:
Preseason
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Before my usual top 25 run-down and other notes, I wanted to express my condolences to the University of Texas and its fans for the passing away of Darrell Royal yesterday. I had mentioned him less than two weeks ago in my blog about records and winning percentages of Les Miles and other prominent coaches. Many of the coaches on my list of historic greats are long gone, but some of the ones still alive (most of whom, unlike Royal, made their names in the 1980s and 1990s) are Lou Holtz, Dennis Erickson, Jimmie Johnson, Tom Osborne, and Barry Switzer. At least a couple of the honorable mentions are still around too. For example, Vince Dooley turned 80 a couple of months ago, and Frank Broyles (about 6 months younger than Royal) is expected to turn 88 next month. Broyles and Royal were close friends despite the rivalry at that time, and Royal’s career also overlapped with Switzer’s.
I was also interested to note that Royal attended the University of Oklahoma, where he played for Bud Wilkinson, another coach on my list. Royal intercepted 18 passes in his career with the Sooners, still a school record, particularly impressive given the reluctance of many to employ the forward pass at that time. Perhaps not coincidentally, he is famous for the statement, “Three things can happen when you pass, and two of ’em are bad.” He also was a successful part-time quarterback.
Before becoming the head coach of Texas, where he was known for installing the wishbone offense, Royal briefly coached at Mississippi St. (whose series against LSU I profiled here) and Washington. In his 23 seasons as a college head coach (1954-76), none of his teams ever had a losing record.
Top 25 comments
It may not look like the top teams have changed, and that’s true in ordinal ranking. However, going into last week, Alabama trailed Notre Dame by .23. Now Alabama trails Notre Dame by .04. So the Tide should have no problem passing up the Irish, assuming they can get past Texas A&M. Not a guarantee given that the Aggies had a similarly close game against LSU and just last week dismantled Mississippi St. similarly to the way the Tide did the week before.
Notre Dame will lose standing compared to other undefeated teams as the Irish still have Boston College, Wake Forest, and a bye week. They also have USC of course, but a 3-loss USC is probably not what many people expected they’d face and the three other major undefeateds all have multiple opponents left who rate higher than the Trojans do right now.
Ohio St. is still #3 here, but keep in mind they haven’t had a bye week either (they have one this week and of course will be idle during championship week). If the score is averaged by playing weeks, Ohio St. is 5th instead. I think 5th is more in line with where they should be, but I’m confident it will work itself out.
It doesn’t look like Florida can make the SEC championship game (absent what would be an almost miraculous win by Auburn over Georgia), so in light of LSU’s loss, I don’t think a one-loss SEC champion would be in the mix, unless of course a couple of these other teams lose (in which case maybe a one-loss non-champion could be involved). Georgia had a much worse loss (35-7 to South Carolina) and a significantly weaker schedule than Florida has had (Ole Miss, Auburn, and Georgia Tech in lieu of Texas A&M, LSU, and Florida St.), so they’re a tough sell as a one-loss team. I don’t think Alabama would be able to pull off what Oklahoma did in 2003 and make the BCS championship despite the loss in the conference championship game. Of course the formula has changed quite a bit since then. It would make for interesting conversation if Florida, Georgia, and Alabama all finished with one loss apiece, but practically, I’m afraid that would just dilute the SEC-sympathetic vote.
Anyway, as far as my ratings, Florida is significantly ahead (.11) of Georgia even though the Bulldogs are just the next spot down, so absent Georgia beating Alabama (who has all but clinched the SEC West), they should stay ahead.
I was happy to see Louisville and Toledo each moved down a couple spots as promised. Rutgers only fell one spot during its bye week, but this was partly due to losses by teams in their vicinity.
Georgia and Oregon St. moved up with a couple of respective good-but-not-great wins. Oregon St. could potentially be the top 1-loss team as it can play itself into the Pac-12 championship game against Stanford and Oregon. Of course, Georgia would gain significant ground by winning the SEC, but the Bulldogs don’t have much remaining competition otherwise.
South Carolina, Clemson, Nebraska, and Florida St. benefited from LSU’s loss and all moved up. The Gamecocks only moved up one spot though, because of course they had lost to LSU. Florida St. only moved up one spot because of its bye week and because that Duke win doesn’t count as much as it did last week.
Nebraska still gets credit for beating Michigan St., although the losses are adding up for the Spartans too. Also, the Huskers got a boost from UCLA (which beat Nebraska in September) beating Arizona.
Northwestern also felt the effects of the bye week, as they were passed up by Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana Tech. Texas A&M got the big win over Mississippi St., which in turn helped out Louisiana Tech. Texas and Oklahoma got decent wins in their own right, and also helped each other out.
San Jose St. is just gradually moving up as other teams lose, but we’ll see if they belong when they play BYU and Louisiana Tech. One of the Spartans’ two losses is to Stanford, so that’s why there aren’t a lot of negative points there. It also helped SJSU out that San Diego St. (whom they beat in September) beat Boise St. The Spartans are the 96th team I have ranked out of 124 in the nearly two decades I have ranked teams (I’m getting old). Obviously, the four new teams haven’t had much of a chance yet.
Three consecutive wins since the humiliation in Berkeley have put UCLA back in the top 25, and Mississippi St. is still barely hanging on at #25.
23 of my top 25 teams are also in the BCS top 25. The only exceptions are Ohio St., which is on probation and excluded from the BCS ratings, and San Jose St. Texas Tech and USC are the two teams in the BCS top 25 but not in my top 25.
SEC and LSU Notes
9 of the top 22 schedules in my formula belong to the SEC. That number might be a little skewed because I don’t factor in FCS games, but as of right now, the SEC has played fewer such games per team than any other major conference apart from the Big Ten. The SEC has seven teams in my top 25. The SEC is easily first in my conference rankings, but due to tiebreakers, the Pac-12 North is now the top division, although keep in mind that this only looks at where the good teams are ranked and does not consider how bad teams like Washington St. and Arkansas are.
Kentucky has announced that head coach Joker Philips will not be retained next season. I rank Kentucky’s schedule third, but I rank the team 98th. The Cats beat a Kent St. team that has beaten Rutgers and has done very well in the MAC. They also gave Georgia a very close game, but there were no wins apart from Kent St., and if you’re even occasionally bad enough to lose to Vanderbilt 40-0 at home, I can see the administration wanting to make a change. Kentucky made a bowl game in 2010 and barely missed one in 2011, so it may be time to try to right the ship before any further damage is done.
The Captain Obvious (or should that be spelled “Oblivious”?) award for the week goes to Les Miles, who admitted the fake field goal (a pass from the punter to the kicker at that) on 4th and 12 was not the right play.
As if there wasn’t enough bad about the LSU/Bama game, one thing that made it even worse was that LSU used the game as a major recruiting event. Kain Daub, a LB who may be one of the top recruits in the nation in 2014, announced a few days later that he has opened up his options since committing to LSU in the offseason. Alabama is one of several schools he is now considering, but he hasn’t completely eliminated LSU. Kendall Beckwith, a 4-star “ATH” (I so hate that designation) from Louisiana, is still leaning toward LSU, but is also considering Alabama. I wonder if the outcome of this game might come into play when he decides. Beckwith plans to attend the A&M/Alabama game as well.
Speaking of which, unless there is a three-way tie with Alabama and Texas A&M (which would require losses by the Tide to A&M and Auburn), LSU will not make the SEC championship game this season. The Tigers have made the SEC championship game 5 times, but all were in odd-numbered years. LSU has played @Auburn and @Florida in every even-numbered year since the SEC championship game began. The Tigers have also hosted Alabama in even-numbered years that whole time and have generally fared worse against the Tide at home than on the road.
For the eighth presidential election in a row, the LSU/Alabama game has corresponded with the outcome of the presidential election. It’s simple: LSU beats Alabama in an election year, the Republican wins; Alabama beats LSU, the Democrat wins. So if you don’t like Obama, blame Les Miles for getting him re-elected. The Alabama/LSU game often takes place after the election though.
It has sometimes been the second Saturday in November instead of the first. (And of course even the first Saturday sometimes falls after Election Day… which by law is the first Tuesday that is not November 1.) The game was actually played on the third Saturday in 2002 and 2003 and on the fourth Saturday in 1973, but obviously those weren’t election years and the streak didn’t start until 1984 anyway. Otherwise, it’s been on one of those two days since this started being an annual rivalry in 1964.
The “Redskins Rule” (which has to do with the Redskins defending the incumbent’s party by winning at home), on the other hand, has been wrong in two of the last three elections.
Alabama, Clemson, Florida, Florida St., Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kent St., LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio St., Oregon, South Carolina, Texas A&M
Pre-championship notes and Week 13 Top 25
In College Football, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on November 30, 2012 at 3:35 AMI’m going to switch it up and put my top 25 last, since that’s old news at this point. But you can always look up my new ratings early Sunday morning and all week long via that link.
Saban vs. Muschamp and SEC notes
Also, I don’t think we really learned anything new last week. I’m not saying I predicted every game to happen as it did, but there was nothing earth-shattering. I do think the SEC should have quieted a bit of the talk about it being some kind of fraud illusion. I’ll get back to that after mentioning the Muschamp/Saban dispute, both of whom I remember well as LSU coaches of course.
Florida is a solid #3 now in my top 25. If Alabama beats Georgia, I would honestly rather see the Gators in the title game to Notre Dame. At least the Tide would have a greater chance of losing. But a certain head coach doesn’t even think Florida deserves the Sugar.
“You play your way into the (SEC) championship game, which means you’re the best team in your division. …”
Does it always mean that? Really? We wouldn’t to give a one-loss team that didn’t win its division the benefit of the doubt in some cases, right?
And Florida actually tied for its division, kind of like Alabama would have done with Texas A&M (which would have been followed by Alabama watching from home and hoping for a Sugar invite) had Florida not beaten Texas A&M. I hardly think it a coincidence that the two of the top-6 SEC teams who are playing for the championship had the weakest interdivisional competition (Alabama played Tennessee and Missouri, while Georgia played Auburn and Ole Miss).
So let’s look at top wins and losses by either potential loser against Florida. I list all the wins over teams .500 or better in BCS-conference competition. And don’t forget that you’re adding a second loss to either Georgia or Alabama.
How do you NOT pick Florida?
Muschamp offered to play in the game in lieu of Alabama, and implicitly would have let the Tide have the Sugar Bowl. I’d probably rather see that game, actually.
Of course, I indicated above two of the SEC’s wins over the ACC over the weekend. Also, South Carolina beat Clemson and Vandy beat Wake Forest. The fact that Vandy not only won but was expected to win and won easily shows how far they’ve come. Being in the middle of this league (#7 based on wins and losses in conference) is hard to do. Vandy did lose to Northwestern earlier in the year though. No other such losses by the SEC top 8 though.
Even some of the lower teams got good wins earlier in the year. Kentucky, winless in the SEC, beat Kent St., who’s playing for the MAC Championship tonight. Missouri beat Arizona St., which tied for second in the Pac-12 South. Missouri only won two conference games. Tennessee, which only won a single conference game (over Kentucky), beat North Carolina St., which went .500 in the ACC.
It would have been nice had Washington (which LSU beat) held on against Washington St., which is a reminder of how those rivalry games can be, and if Michigan had beaten Ohio St., but the SEC held its own up and down the standings.
Strength of schedule
The argument of “the SEC didn’t play anyone” rings hollow. The SEC played 13 games against AQ conferences. The Pac-12, albeit with two fewer teams, played 11 games against AQ conferences and Notre Dame. Both finished one game above .500 in such games.
Speaking of the Pac-12, I enjoyed this list of underwhelming preseason #1 teams in the AP before USC this season (they would rate about 4th if included on the list).
Anyway, the Big XII was the only conference with a clear advantage against other AQ teams (5-1, with the loss by Oklahoma to Notre Dame), but it had no impressive wins: Texas over Ole Miss, Iowa St. over Iowa, Kansas St. over Miami, West Virginia over Maryland, and TCU over Virginia. This is how 9 of the 10 teams in the Big XII are bowl-eligible.
I do understand the general complaint that we don’t have quality inter-conference games, but the rise of 9-game conference schedules with a possible championship game has something to do with this. People have forgotten that there used to only be 5 or 6 conference games, which allowed more scheduling flexibility for the other games. The 13 teams of the MAC did manage to play 25 games against AQ conferences, but how much of that was because the MAC loves competition and how much of it was the fact that a team like Florida would rather play Bowling Green than a 10th AQ-level opponent? Teams never used to do that before. As late as the early 1960s, some prominent teams were still playing 9 games total and calling it a season.
I’ll give just a few notes about the top 25.
I would expect Alabama to jump Oregon with a win over Georgia, but I’m not sure about Florida, and they wouldn’t pass up Ohio St. without winning a bowl at least. I think even with a win, Georgia will be stuck behind Florida no matter what. Maybe they’d have a chance if Georgia Tech beats Florida St. though.
Kansas St. slipped some more. I think some probably thought they didn’t fall enough spots after the Baylor loss, but now that they’ve had a bye week, I think it gives a more accurate picture. Texas would still be a decent win though. I’m not sure what happened to the Horns against the Horned Frogs, however.
LSU got passed up by South Carolina due to the Cocks’ win over Clemson. That Washington loss didn’t help matters either. LSU did stay ahead of Nebraska. The two are very close, so Nebraska will pass up LSU with a win for sure. Oklahoma will be trying to pass up idle SEC teams LSU and Texas A&M as well.
Florida St. may pass up some idle teams as well by beating Georgia Tech, and the winner of the MAC will be poised to move up as well. Also, Texas can reclaim a lot of lost ground (if not do even better) if they can beat Kansas St.
Louisville secured the Big East title last night, but it’s not like the champion of the Big East has a whole lot of bearing on this, and a lot of these teams aren’t playing before the bowls, so this is still basically the current top 25. I guess you can take out Rutgers and assume Louisville is 24th, and that’s about what it is right now. Louisville beat Kentucky head-to-head, and Rutgers lost to Kent St., who lost to Kentucky, so I guess the right team has won the Big East. That’s also why I say 24th instead of 25th. The Cardinals may go higher than that anyway. By the way, Kent St. is in my rankings for the first time, making the Golden Flashes the 98th team I have ranked.
An aside about the Big East before the rankings… I enjoyed this exchange about the Big East (see video), by the way… apparently it will soon simply be the Conference USA by a different name, having recently announced that it will be adding Tulane and East Carolina. Conference USA would be a better title anyway since it already goes from Tampa to New Jersey to San Diego to Idaho. So I guess one more year of the Big East being an automatic entry. Good riddance. By the way, Louisville seems to be headed to the ACC, Cincinnati probably will too, West Virginia and Pittsburgh are of course already gone. Rutgers should have a lot of championship opportunities to come.
Top 25
rank / team / prior
1 Notre Dame 1
2 Ohio St. 2
3 Florida 3
4 Oregon 6
5 Alabama 4
6 Stanford 7
7 Georgia 8
8 Kansas St. 5
9 S Carolina 12
10 LSU 9
11 Nebraska 10
12 TX A&M 13
13 Oklahoma 16
14 Clemson 11
15 SJSU 19
16 Oregon St. 15
17 Florida St. 14
18 Utah St. 22
19 N. Illinois 23
20 N’western 25
21 Texas 18
22 Rutgers 17
23 Michigan 21
24 Boise St. —
25 Kent St. —
Out of rankings: (20) Louisville, (24) UCLA
Full 124 permalink
Prior rankings:
Preseason
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12