Before I begin, I wanted to note I’ve updated my ratings in light of the Army-Navy game and recent FCS results.
I have gone into detail about how I understand the Brian Kelly hiring came about and why Notre Dame isn’t some horribly aggrieved party, but I haven’t really gone into what I think of the hire.
A lot of LSU fans were dismayed that we didn’t hire a 30-something offensive-minded coach who throws the ball around. Everyone wants the next Sean McVay even though he’s only won three NFL playoff games in his life, and one was the controversial NFC championship game against the Saints. Hunt Palmer, one of the LSU commentators I actually respect and listen to, said he’s “infatuated” with young coaches like that. You can imagine what the people I hold in less esteem have been saying. Basically, they think if you have a modern passing game, it doesn’t matter what kind of defense or line or player development or organization you have.
Are Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban really similar to McVay? Dabo was a young offensive-minded coach when he started, but he joined Clemson’s staff when McVay was 16 and became Clemson’s head coach when McVay was 22. He was not some cutting-edge offensive wizard teaching all the old fogeys the error of their ways. He was hired by Tommy Bowden after all. Even if you still think Dabo is along the same lines as McVay, why aren’t Saban and Belichick, two older defensive coaches, better examples to follow? Kelly was a defensive coach before was an offensive coach, by the way. I’m not an NFL expert, but I’d also argue there are some possible analogies between Kelly and Andy Reid, who hadn’t won a Super Bowl as head coach before going to Kansas City.
I do accept that a national championship is an item missing from Kelly’s resume (McVay doesn’t have a Super Bowl title either), but let’s look at the other national championship coaches of the last 20 years and see if they’re better. Larry Coker (2001) kept U. Miami going strong for two years but ran it into the ground after that. Jim Tressel (2002) has been out of coaching since 2010 and won on another controversial interference call. You know who Nick Saban (2003, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2020) and Pete Carroll (2004) are, but they’re obviously not available, not to mention both being over 70. Mack Brown (2005) has had mediocre results (and a six-year hiatus) since losing the BCS national championship to Alabama in 2009.
As mentioned, I think being 30-40 is overrated, but that doesn’t mean we should hire someone over 70. Urban Meyer (2006, 2008, and 2014) is coaching in Jacksonville and didn’t seem interested in any college job. We gave Les Miles (2007) enough chances to try to bring back the magic of 2007 and 2011. Not too unlike Brown, Chizik (2010), Fisher (2013), and Orgeron (2019) became mediocre fairly quickly after their respective championships, costing Chizik and Orgeron (respectively) their jobs within two years. Fisher made a lateral move to Texas A&M, where, except for the COVID-shortened year, the mediocrity has continued. More on Fisher in a moment.
Dabo (2016 and 2018) would have been the best choice among prior champions in my opinion, but he wasn’t coming either. Obviously he’s still second to Saban among active college coaches, but I think rebuilding a program and seeing it through is the task of someone younger.
That brings up another issue. Some LSU fans apparently think we can just apply a couple of band-aids and 2019 will just emerge again. You can’t win recruits over Alabama and Texas A&M and other regional rivals when you go .500 and can’t find a coordinator on either side. Dave Aranda came to coach for Les Miles in 2016, but Orgeron showed no ability to find someone similar on either side of the ball (the defensive coordinator he hired in the offseason showed some promise in November but was either unready or over-supervised before). Steve Ensminger did a good job with a field full of talent (and with the help of analyst Joe Brady in 2019); but again, he came from Miles’s staff, and there was no indication Orgeron could find someone similar. Ensminger demoted himself to analyst going into this season.
As I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, it was fortunate that Orgeron took over when he did and that as many Miles holdovers and Miles recruits stayed on as they did. If it weren’t for the recruits that came after 2018 and 2019, there would be very little of value to hold onto. It would be a rebuild similar to Saban’s rebuild of LSU in 2000. Maybe someone like Mel Tucker would have been the next Saban (LSU hired Saban from the same school where Tucker works), but that would have been a gamble. Tucker was paid very well to stay anyway. It seems Notre Dame had no intention of paying Kelly anything similar to what the top coaches make now.
I just really don’t see how LSU could have done any better. I mentioned how I feel about Jimbo. While I covered how I feel about coaches of similar background, I didn’t mention Lincoln Riley specifically. Riley didn’t have to rebuild anything at Oklahoma. He continued what Bob Stoops was already doing, and he even had Stoops there for support. Imagine Saban had been at LSU since 2000, retired, and stayed on to help with the next coach. His advice could have helped someone like Orgeron have a long, successful career with LSU. Riley might do well at USC, but it’s really uncertain how he can do on his own when inheriting a 4-8 team rather than an 11-2 team as he did at Oklahoma. He’s part of a series of young offensive-minded Trojan head coaches. Even if he is successful, it won’t be proof that that’s a great model to follow.
Riley did make the national semifinals in each of his first three seasons, but the fourth year is when it fully becomes your team. There are still some players recruited by the previous staff, but at that point the old staff did little to develop those players, and they’re usually a small minority of those who are playing. The Sooners started 1-2 last year and then went 1-2 against ranked teams this year. The only reason they got the one win was due to how vastly overrated Texas was, and the Sooners needed a big comeback to even win that game. They also struggled against Tulane, West Virginia, Kansas St., and Kansas. Obviously, struggling to a 10-2 record is much better than what LSU has done for the last two years, so I wouldn’t have been upset with a Riley hire; but I would have deeper concerns than I do with Kelly. Also, given the struggles with teams who were ranked, I don’t even know if Riley would have done better than Orgeron’s 2-5 record against ranked teams this year. I also don’t know how he would handle facing six ranked teams in a row as LSU did.
Riley’s performance doesn’t compare to Kelly’s taking over a program that went 15-23 over its last 38 games and then winning 74% of his games over 12 seasons as Kelly did. Even within his time there, Kelly was also on the upswing. Rather than becoming less competitive, Notre Dame was becoming more competitive. The Irish finished in top five of the College Football Playoff for the third time in four years and finished with double-digit wins for the fifth year in a row. By contrast, Kelly had only had double-digit wins twice in his first seven years.
In the 16 years before Kelly, there were only 2 seasons with double-digit wins (both with exactly 10 wins), by the way. So I’m not saying we have to wait seven years before LSU is going to be nationally competitive on a regular basis. In the last 16 years, by contrast, LSU has had 8 seasons with 10 or more wins and 5 seasons with 11 or more wins.
Another line of thinking that bothered me was Kelly just not being a “good fit” with the “culture”. That could mean a couple of different things, but neither one checks out. If I were a USC fan, being consistent with the recent football culture would be a bad thing, and I feel the same way as an LSU fan. I enjoyed some of the cartoonish aspects of Les Miles and Coach O, but it’s time for something a little more serious. Kelly does seem a little warmer than Saban or Urban Meyer, but that isn’t saying much. I think Fisher and Dabo are more likeable from the press conferences, but I don’t know how they compare behind the scenes. Regardless of personality, I’d rather wins result from an organized plan than be a result of almost haphazard luck that Orgeron and Miles seemed to tap into.
Let’s not pretend Les Miles or Nick Saban were comparing notes on gumbo and boudin recipes when they arrived at LSU either. Les was from Ohio and had coached college only in the Big Ten, Big 8, and Big XII. A coastal person might think Saban being from West Virginia places him somewhere close to Louisiana culture, but I can assure you it does not. Also, Saban (like Kelly) had spent nearly his whole coaching career in the Midwest before going to LSU (even the exceptions of West Virginia and Syracuse are both pretty close to Pennsylvania and Ohio). Saban had also played college ball in the Midwest.
Another weird reaction was that based on age he’s not a typical Scott Woodward hire. Woodward did hire baseball coach Jay Johnson, who is 44; but the first candidate he submitted to the board was Kevin O’Sullivan, who is almost 10 years older. Another candidate who was widely reported as under consideration was Pat Casey, who is 62. Men’s basketball coach Will Wade is young, but he was not hired by Woodward. First-year women’s basketball coach Kim Mulkey is 59. Mulkey comes off as more intense and less conservative than Kelly, but there is no reason to believe age limits either one. At Texas A&M, Woodward hired Fisher, who was then 52 (reportedly, 4 years later, Fisher was Woodward’s first choice as LSU head coach).
I think Woodward is more about extensive championship-level experience than age. Fisher’s teams only played for one national championship (which the Seminoles won) as head coach, but he coached in the 2003 championship as offensive coordinator at LSU and contributed in both recruiting and development to the Tigers’ championship in 2007, which took place his first year away from Baton Rouge after he had been there seven years. The Seminoles had also lost in the semifinals in 2014. O’Sullivan coached in two national championships, winning one; and Casey and Mulkey had multiple national championships. Woodward ultimately couldn’t get a championship baseball coach, but Johnson was the head coach of the National Runners-up in 2016 and returned to the College World Series last year.
I do agree with some criticisms that it would be better if Kelly were a bit younger; but when Saban was hired at Alabama, he was only about 4 years younger than Kelly is now. That was one of the best college football hires anyone has ever made. I don’t expect Kelly to be one of the best hires ever made if we review the decision in 15 years (Alabama hired Saban after the 2006 season), but expecting anything better on paper is ridiculous. It was also a good decision when LSU hired Saban 22 years ago, but he was young enough to be tempted into an NFL head coaching job 5 years later. I think when you hire someone around 60, they’re less likely to go that direction and less likely to leave to embark on another big project before retirement.
Alabama, Clemson, College Football, Colorado, Duke, Ed Orgeron, Florida, Florida St., Fresno St., Georgia, Les Miles, LSU, Michigan, Mississippi St., Nick Saban, North Carolina, Ohio St., Pac-12, Penn St., Purdue, SEC, South Carolina, TCU, Urban Meyer, Utah, Virginia Tech, Wyoming
Week 1 Reaction and Top 25 2023
In College Football, General LSU, History, Me, Post-game, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on September 9, 2023 at 4:11 AMSince the last blog…
Sometimes long weekends are the worst scenario. It was basically Wednesday by the time I was able to review some of the things that went wrong during the LSU game. If I had waited to review all of them, I might have never written another blog. Obviously I’m not a beat reporter in Baton Rouge, so I rely on public statements and coverage from the people who are based around the program. That process was delayed by a day or more given that the game took place on Sunday night. I did have Friday the 1st off, but nothing had happened yet. I had decided to go out of town to a baseball game on Saturday, so I couldn’t write live reactions about the teams who played on Saturday.
On Sunday, I barely made it back in time for the game, and then Mondays are workdays for me whether I go into work or not. My bosses check to make sure I’ve made enough progress on Tuesday mornings, and I have the type of job where I always have to spend time preparing for the next day the night before anyway. Unfortunately, I don’t just clock in and clock out without having to think about it until I clock in again.
LSU-Florida St. Reaction and Historical Comparisons
Anyway, I do feel a little good right now that at least I didn’t pick LSU to win the SEC West or make the playoff. I’m not throwing in the towel though. There have been teams with rough starts who ended up doing well in the SEC, but it’s pretty rare to be one of the top teams nationally. Ohio St. got run out of their own stadium against Virginia Tech in the first week of September 2014 before winning the first College Football Playoff, but that’s kind of the exception that proves the rule.
Also, the Buckeyes had two months before they had to play a major-conference opponent who would finish with 9 wins or more. That was a long time to fix the issues in the Virginia Tech game, and there was even a close call against a Penn St. team (which would finish 7-6) in the interim. I think LSU has a lot less time. Mississippi St., LSU’s opponent a week from today, will win 9 games or more.
A couple of years before that, Georgia got blown out by South Carolina, 35-7. in early October but came just a couple of yards short of beating Alabama to win the SEC and make the BCS championship game (which they most likely would have won given how easily the Tide handled Notre Dame). I think that’s a more realistic example for LSU to hope to follow (possibly making the SEC title game and playing better than last year). Georgia of course had to overcome that game to win the East whereas LSU’s loss to Florida St. does not count in the SEC standings. Unlike the Ohio St. example, the Bulldogs’ next big game (in hindsight and at the time) was just a couple of games later against Florida, who would finish 11-2. The only bad thing about following that Georgia example would be having to wait another 10 years to actually win a national championship.
I’ll update the Florida St. rivalry blog another time, but it’s just crazy how cursed LSU seems to be in the series. Of course, I still think LSU would have done quite well if they had played the Seminoles annually from about 2001 to 2019 (minus a couple of losses to Jameis, I suppose).
Thoughts on Brian Kelly
I said I’m not throwing in the towel on this season. I’m also not throwing in the towel on Brian Kelly. This was Kelly’s 15th game. Ed Orgeron lost to Troy in his 13th game in charge (two weeks after a 30-point loss at Mississippi St. that I still argue was worse). Les Miles lost his 12th game by 20 to a Georgia team that finished 10-3. Say what you will about Miles and Orgeron after the respective national championships, but no one was whining about it taking too long to get there at the end of 2007 (Miles’ third year) or 2019 (Orgeron’s third full year) seasons. By the way, 2014 was Urban Meyer’s third year at Ohio St., and Nick Saban didn’t win his first at Alabama until his third year (he had taken four years to win one at LSU). So even if it’s safe to assume a national championship is off the table already, I never thought it was a highly realistic goal for this year anyway.
Kelly can be a smooth talker, so I don’t always hold too much stock in his press conferences and whatnot, but I liked his rant at the end of his week-opening press conference. I disagree somewhat with faulting the enthusiasm gap, but I think it was a good message to put out there, and it showed he took onboard many of the issues fans and media pointed out.
I tried to clean up some of the grammar. He usually speaks better than that, but I’ll forgive it. I’ll accept some grammatical hiccups in exchange for his not sounding like a politician sometimes.
Other Results and Reactions
At least Kelly has been overshadowed somewhat by the hysterics about Dabo after Clemson’s loss to Duke. My prediction of those Tigers being the team to beat in the ACC isn’t looking too good right now. But that 2014 Virginia Tech team was in the ACC and ended up losing 6 games, 5 of them in conference, so we shouldn’t rush to any conclusions about that conference either. Even if Clemson continues to disappoint, I might still be right that the ACC champion will have a good shot at the Playoff though.
If I were a betting man (sports betting is still illegal where I live anyway), I would have taken Colorado +20.5. Although I did leave TCU ranked, I wasn’t very convinced they were going to be a competitive team this year. Deion performed better than many more experienced coaches in getting a bunch of transfers and other new players to support each other and have the needed enthusiasm. Whatever happens this season, he definitely did something right in preparing for Week 1.
I don’t believe in making drastic changes after one week unless necessary, so I’m not dropping LSU and Clemson from the top 25. TCU was low enough that they will drop out though. I don’t really have the time and energy to re-work the whole thing even if I wanted to. I don’t really have a long list of teams that were just outside of the top 25 either.
I also wanted to put some of the conference talk into perspective. South Carolina has a much lower status in the SEC than North Carolina has in the ACC. The Tar Heels were the ACC runners-up in 2015 and 2022 and represented the conference in the post-2020 Orange Bowl. They would have been #2 in the conference had Notre Dame not temporarily joined. The Gamecocks have only made one SEC championship game, and that was back in 2010. They have only won 8 games or more twice since the 2013 season.
Florida is obviously a more successful program in the big picture than Utah is, but the Gators lost 5 SEC games (and two other games) last season and 6 the season before, going 6-7 overall both seasons. Utah went 10-4 in each of the last two seasons, winning the Pac-12 both years. I know Florida beat Utah anyway last year, but you can’t expect the SEC to win every game like that.
LSU-Florida St. was the only game of the three that was an apples-to-apples comparison.
It is interesting that the Pac-12 is disintegrating at the same the conference had the most successful Week 1; but other than Colorado, nothing is too impressive based on recent seasons.
I considered ranking Purdue in preseason, and Fresno St. beat the Boilermakers on the road. I thought it was good to make sure one team from outside of the major conferences (and Notre Dame) was included. I also considered Wyoming, which beat Texas Tech; but the Cowboys rarely sustain their early-season successes whereas Fresno St. is often one of the top teams in the Mountain West. I also take overtime wins with more of a grain of salt.
Top 25
Out of Top 25: (17) TCU, (19) S. Carolina, (22) Boise St., (25) Texas Tech