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Posts Tagged ‘Steve Spurrier’

SEC Wednesday #4 and LSU Midweek

In College Football, General LSU, Post-game, Preview, Rivalry, SEC Wednesdays on October 21, 2015 at 7:03 PM

Last Week

Some weeks, I feel like I should have just flipped a coin for all the games. This was one of them.  Previous weeks convinced me not to pick Auburn, Mississippi St., or South Carolina against the spread.  All three have been huge disappointments against the spread on multiple occasions, so I finally got the tipping point where I didn’t want to pick them anymore.  So of course they all decided to play well.  If I had known nothing about what happened earlier this season, I might have picked all three.

Texas A&M, on the other hand, convinced me to pick them and the points over Alabama.  I thought they would at least be in the game in the fourth quarter at home.  Maybe Alabama is just going to have a new tradition of losing to Ole Miss and then stomping everyone else, although I’m not quite sure why the Tide didn’t win by more against AR-Kansas if that is the case.

SEC WED

Speaking of Ole Miss, unlike last year, it’s like the season ended for them immediately after the Alabama game.  It’s like they didn’t even show up against Florida, and then I guess they thought since it was Memphis, it didn’t matter that it was a road game against a bunch of players who get less respect than Rodney Dangerfield did and wanted to take it out on an SEC opponent.  I thought the Rebels would just barely beat the line, but they were about four touchdowns away from doing so.

LSU-Florida and Georgia-Missouri were the two bright spots that went exactly as I anticipated.  Wins by the favorites but within the spread.  I mentioned that I was wrong about five of them against the spread.

I did pick Mississippi St. and Alabama to win, so at least both of those happened.  This at least gave me a winning record (4-3) for the week in picking the winners.

My overall records fall to 22-9 “straight up” and 13-16 against the spread.

Upcoming Week

I will discuss LSU at the end because I don’t want to bury my coverage of other teams.

Arkansas is favored by six at home against Auburn even though their only home win is over UTEP.  I’ll pick the Hogs to win since as mentioned they did all right with Alabama and are coming off a bye week.  However, I’ll hope it’s a small margin since I’ll take Auburn and the points.  The plains Tigers won at Kentucky by three, so losing at Arkansas by a slim margin seems fairly consistent with that.

As mentioned earlier, Alabama didn’t win by that much against Arkansas at home (13 points).  So I’ll take Tennessee and the 15.5 even though the game will be in Tuscaloosa.  Arkansas did beat Tennessee, but I think that will be viewed as an upset at the end of the year. This is still enough of a rivalry that it may be close.  Alabama to win.

Vanderbilt lost to South Carolina by nine last week, and Missouri lost to Georgia by three.  I’m thinking Missouri can win by more than 2.5 even though the game is in Nashville.  It may be another baseball score though. (Earlier in the year, Mizzou beat Connecticut by the same score it just lost to Georgia, 9-6.)

I have absolutely no idea which Rebel and Aggie teams will show up in Oxford. I’ll do the same thing I did with Arkansas-Auburn and pick the favorite (Ole Miss) to win by fewer than 6 points.

Kentucky narrowly beat such luminaries as ULL and Eastern Kentucky.  The four-point win over South Carolina has lost a bit of its lustre too.  However, the Wildcats kept the Gators close and beat Missouri by 8.  What convinced me to take them in the points is the fact that I think Mississippi St. is a good enough team that Kentucky will step up its play enough to make it close.  I have no reason to believe Kentucky is worse than last year, and Mississippi St. is a fair bit away from how good they were last year. The Bulldogs only won by 14 last year, so I’ll take Kentucky and the 11.5 with State to win.

LSU Midweek Comments and Projection

Inspired by Les Miles, I’m going to take a huge gamble and pick LSU to actually beat the spread of 17 this week. Western Kentucky seemed a bit distracted by the crowd in NASHVILLE. Even a substandard crowd in Baton Rouge would probably be intimidated by comparison.  I don’t know if it will be though.  It will be at night, the weather should be in the 70s, and LSU does not return home until November 14 against Arkansas, one of only two remaining home games after this one.

The Hilltoppers have the ability to hang in there if LSU does stupid things like fumble a punt in the first few minutes and allow a kick-return TD, both of which the Tigers did against Florida.  However, I don’t think the talent and preparation for the environment will the the same, so even if there are some LSU mistakes, WKU may not take advantage as well.

If LSU managed to run away with it on Will Muschamp’s Auburn defense (which isn’t good statistically but still held Mississippi St. to 17, for instance), I can see the same thing playing out against Western Kentucky’s defense, which gave up 38 to both Indiana and Louisiana Tech.  Last week, WKU gave up 28 points to North Texas, one of the worst FBS teams.  The Mean Green scored 14 in the first half, so they weren’t all window dressing after the game was decided either.  That was UNT’s highest point total for the season and came just a week after a 66-7 loss to Portland St.

Trent Domingue himself actually brought this picture with the unhappy mascots to my attention when he mentioned it in an interview.

Anyway, while I’m talking about LSU I wanted to mention a couple of things about the Florida series I forgot about previously.  This is only the second time LSU has won three home games in a row against the Gators.  The previous time was three games spread out over 18 seasons ending in 1957.  This was also the third time and first since 1982 that LSU has won five times in six contests against the Gators.

Also, since 2007, LSU is 12 for 16 on fourth downs against the Gators with at least four successful fakes, three of them fake field goals.  LSU has converted its last six fourth-down-conversion attempts against Florida.

Also significant to me was the fact Florida no longer leads the series in Baton Rouge.  Tennessee (which never played LSU very often) and Alabama are the only two SEC programs with more wins than losses in Baton Rouge.

Previous entries

Week 4 Preview (predictions only)

SEC Wednesdays #1

SEC Wednesdays #2

SEC Wednesdays #3

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Spurrier and LSU-Florida Revisited

In College Football, General LSU, History, Rivalry on October 16, 2015 at 3:39 PM

I don’t want to go too much into ancient history in this blog because my rivalry blog has all that stuff, but I have to say a couple of things about Spurrier in addition to my comments Wednesday.  His last game on Saturday was 25 years and four days after his first game against LSU with the Gators.

{Late edit: I wanted to add this about the South Carolina game and relief efforts.  Worth the read.}

Not only did LSU fail to beat Spurrier’s Gators except for the 1997 upset in Tiger Stadium, but that was one of only three games where the Tigers came within two touchdowns of the Gators in Spurrier’s tenure.  Before Spurrier took the helm in 1990, LSU had a 19-15 lead in the series.

So in large part thanks to Spurrier, Florida still has a lead in the series of four games, 31 to 27 with 3 ties.  Spurrier had zero success against LSU with the South Carolina Gamecocks, however.

I mentioned that game in 1990 was also in October. I like that this game has occupied a fairly consistent spot every year.  With only one exception, the game has been played in the first three playing weeks of October since 1973.  In fact, there have only been four times in the entire history of the series when the game was played in a month other than October.

With that out of the way, I’ll turn my attention exclusively to things that have happened this century.

The recap of the games and seasons below is also part of my rivalry blog, but that was more of a big-picture focus than some of the game stories below.  I’ll probably re-organize this at some point, but an exception was last year, where the full game story is part of the rivalry blog and not reproduced in any way below.

2001 to 2006 

Of course there have been a lot of years where the winner of the LSU-Florida game went on to win the SEC, and there were also of course a few years where the winner won the national title.  Given where the game takes place on the calendar, there can still be time for the loser to rebound.  This occurred in both 2001 and 2003.  LSU lost both games, both at home, and won the SEC in both years.  In 2003, the Tigers also won the BCS championship.

LSU won in the Swamp in 2002, having worked out its frustrations with a 36-7 win over Ron Zook’s first team.  Both teams finished 8-5 that year.

2004 was a similar year, and LSU won in a close game (I actually watched it about a year ago on ESPN Classic).  JaMarcus Russell (who also started in 2005 and 2006) struggled in his first start with the Tigers, but he was successfully relieved by the veteran Marcus Randall.  Also, the defense stepped up and held the Gators scoreless for the entire second half.  Apart from the first four minutes or so, LSU did not lead or tie until 27 seconds remained in the game.  Randall managed the game well, but RB Joseph Addai accounted for 44 yards of total offense on the 50-yard winning drive.

In 2005 (the first season for both Les Miles and Urban Meyer), LSU got only its second win at home against Florida since 1987, but it was another good game, 21-17. LSU had stormed out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead, then Florida took the lead in the third quarter before the Tigers scored the winning touchdown early in the fourth. Neither team was able to generate any offense to speak of after that point. This frustration caused Urban Meyer to cry after the game.  LSU went on to win the division with a 9-game winning streak but lost the SEC championship game to Georgia.

Not 100% sure this is the right game, but Meyer was occasionally upset in his tenure at Florida despite a lot of wins.

Not 100% sure this is the right game, but Meyer was occasionally upset in his tenure at Florida despite a lot of wins.

LSU would have an 11-win year that culminated with winning the Sugar Bowl in 2006, but it wasn’t quite as good as Florida’s 13-1 BCS championship season.  So according to plan, the Gators won without too much drama in the Swamp that season, 23-10.

The only player to score a touchdown for LSU in the 2006 game was a man named Jacob Hester, who averaged nearly five yards per carry.  Miles and offensive coordinator Gary Crowton must have realized that former OC Jimbo Fisher may have been in error not handing it to him more often in that game, because Florida sure was sick of him after the 2007 game.

2007

Feel free to skip to the bottom of this section or the next heading, but I have not told the full story of this game on this site, and what better time than with undefeated LSU against undefeated Florida at night in Tiger Stadium coming up tomorrow?

Miles actually mentioned the 2007 game in his Wednesday press conference, and for me that’s the iconic game of Miles’ tenure so far.

LSU and USC were the consensus #1 and #2 teams in the early part of that season.  The Tigers had not even had a competitive second half yet and went into the game 5-0.  Florida had just suffered its first loss the week before in a close game against Auburn, so they went into the game looking to redeem themselves.

Except for the first four minutes of the game, Florida had led for the entire night, going back up by 10 (the Gators had also led by 10 at halftime) with five minutes left in the third quarter.

After one drive that ended in a punt and another that ended in a missed field goal, it just was not looking like LSU’s night.  Then something started happening.  Some say Tiger Stadium is haunted, and the ghosts only come out at night.

Tim Tebow, who went after the fans after someone had gotten a hold of his cell phone number and disseminated it on campus, had a chance to put the game away.  The ghosts especially don’t like opposing QBs who attack the fans (as Bo Wallace would also find out in 2014).  For some reason, on second and 6, Tebow took a chance and threw an interception.

It was right about this time that an announcement came over the PA system. FINAL SCORE: STANFORD 24, USC 23.  This was one of the biggest upsets for several years.  Mighty USC—who had won an AP title in 2003, nearly accomplished BCS titles in the next two seasons, and then followed with an 11-2 season in 2006—lost to Stanford, who had only won a total of three games from October 2005 to that night nearly two years later.

The crowd went nuts.  It didn’t hurt that a few years before LSU had been forced to share its first national major title in 47 years with USC.  Miles recalled wondering why the crowd was so excited when LSU was still behind in the game.

Later in the ensuing LSU possession, the Tigers faced a fourth down, seemingly a good time to take the three easy points.  Not so fast.  LSU had missed a field goal, as I mentioned, even though this one would have been shorter.  Both of the Tigers’ previous touchdowns had been enabled by going for it on fourth down.  The first was a fairly routine goal-line situation, but the Tigers’ third-quarter touchdown drive to stay in the game was kept alive by a fourth-and-5 scramble.  Whatever it was, something told Les Miles to go for it again on fourth and 3.

QB Matt Flynn had started only 10 for 21 with an interception, but I guess something said that the Tigers needed to throw it on that play.

The Florida offense had apparently been thrown off course by the interception and sputtered on its next possession.  After a punt, LSU took over with 9:20 left on the clock.

Due to a penalty, LSU faced a 2nd and 18.  The smaller, quicker back Trindon Holliday only managed two yards to set up a third and very long.  Maybe LSU would have to try for the winning drive in the next possession…

On the third and long, Flynn was stopped about a yard short of the first down after a desperate scramble when no one was open.  Maybe Florida needed a more bruising back to get the first down on yet another fourth down.  Jacob Hester provided it.  LSU still trailed by three near midfield though.

Three plays later (including a first-down pass), Hester rushed for another 19 yards, then he picked up 4 yards.  Then Ryan Perrilloux, the backup running quarterback, ran for another 5 yards.  Hester was surprisingly stopped for no gain on third down.  Once again, Miles had the chance to take the field goal and a tie game.  Once again, he refused and instead called a handoff to Hester on fourth down, which once again succeeded.

Three plays later, Hester had apparently lost his patience for fourth downs and ran for a touchdown on third down.

Jacob Hester extends the ball for the winning touchdown in 2007.

Jacob Hester extends the ball for the winning touchdown in 2007.

Not only did LSU have its only lead of the game; but the 15-play, 60-yard drive had chewed up all but 69 seconds of the clock.  Florida would get a couple of first downs, but Tim Tebow was sacked on the second-to-last play and threw an incomplete pass on the last play.

Although the Tigers converted fewer than half of the third downs they had faced, LSU went 5/5 on fourth downs for the game.  LSU had converted almost as many fourth downs as Florida had converted third downs (6).  That includes a third-down scramble by Tebow on the final drive.

Despite a few other crazy games, two of which ended in losses, LSU would end the season as BCS Champions after defeating Ohio St.  This time, the AP went along with it.  Florida finished only 9-4 but would win the BCS the following season.

2008 and 2009

I’ve already given you a hint about what happened in 2008.  It wasn’t even close, as Florida won 51-21.  This was basically a throwback to the Spurrier era.  LSU struggled that season in part because the aforementioned Ryan Perrilloux had been the heir apparent at quarterback, and LSU’s pocket passer Jarrett Lee had a terrible habit that year of throwing touchdowns to the wrong team.  Later that year, he was relieved by Jordan Jefferson, a more mobile quarterback who better suited LSU’s playbook and didn’t turn the ball over so much.

LSU improved a bit the next season, but Florida would not lose again until the SEC championship in 2009.  LSU hung in there but couldn’t generate much offense in the 13-3 loss.  This was one of only four home losses for LSU from the beginning of the 2009 season to today.

2010

In 2010, LSU was a good bit better, while Florida was in rebuilding mode again.  After LSU’s opening field goal, the teams traded touchdowns and leads to go along with them.  LSU finally extended its lead to 6 at the end of the half.  The third quarter was scoreless, but LSU went up 26-14 after a failed conversion attempt early in the fourth quarter.

Florida then ran back the ensuing kickoff to get within 5.  After the teams traded punts a few times, new QB Jeff Brantley led Florida on a 10-play, 80-yard drive to give the Gators the lead with only 3:21 left in the game.

LSU basically had to put in Lee at quarterback because Jefferson was not a reliable enough passer for the two-minute drill.  LSU only needed a field goal, so Tiger fans held their breaths and hoped Lee didn’t do anything crazy.

LSU faced a third-and-1 just outside of normal field-goal range and RB Stevan Ridley was absolutely stuffed for a loss of two.

LSU lined up for a field goal, but Florida should have known how Les felt about tying field goals, especially from 50+ yards away.  Anyway, the holder flipped the ball over his shoulder to kicker Josh Jasper, who ran an end-around and got what appeared to be a first down.  The play didn’t quite go according to plan, however, as the ball hit the ground and bounced up to Jasper instead of his being able to catch it in the air.

K Josh Jasper runs for a first down in the final minute in 2010.

K Josh Jasper runs for a first down in the final minute in 2010.

After an extensive review and after Urban Meyer threw a fit on the sidelines, repeatedly signaling first down for Florida, the play stood as a lateral.  I have some suspicions that stress induced by Les Miles alone played a major role in Meyer’s departure from Gainesville (though I suppose Nick Saban helped too), but that’s getting off-topic.

Also, according to Miles, the play should have resulted in a touchdown without the bounce (as a similar play did against South Carolina in 2007); but instead the Tigers still had 31 yards to go with about 30 seconds left.

Lee handled it surprisingly well.  On first down, Terrence Toliver (I looked him up, and he’s now a starting WR for the Hamilton Tiger-Cats) found a seem up the middle and Lee connected to set up first and goal.  After an incompletion, the ball again went to Toliver on a fade route to the left side for the winning touchdown with just six seconds left. LSU won, 33-29.

Comments after 2012 and 2013 games (see here for full blog): In the last 11 years, LSU leads 6-5, with half of the wins coming in Gainesville (2002, 2004, and 2010). Since LSU lost in 2001, this means that in the last 12 years, LSU has gone 6-6, with three home wins and three road wins, and obviously Florida has done the same. The two teams often knock each other out of the SEC championship game, and although a rematch has been often discussed as a possibility, it has never happened. However, as mentioned below, in both 2001 and 2003, LSU lost to Florida before winning SEC championship games over Tennessee and Georgia, respectively.

I thought of this later even though it was unrelated to the 2012 game in Gainesville. LSU has won 22 consecutive home games (as of 10/14/12), the longest in school history, since losing to Florida in 2009. LSU’s win over Florida in 2005 (which was payback for the 2003 loss) began a 19-game home winning streak. So the two Florida wins at LSU from 2003 to present are two of only seven wins at LSU by opposing teams in that time. Three of those LSU losses were in 2008, when Florida beat LSU in the Swamp.

2012 and 2013 were consecutive games where the overall point total was below 24 points. This also took place in 2009, Florida’s last win at LSU (and the last win of anyone apart from the 2012 Alabama team at LSU), when the Gators won, 13-3.

There were 16 games before 1974 where the two teams combined for fewer than 35 points, which isn’t too remarkable as passing was fairly rare before that time, but the frequency of such games hasn’t decreased as much as is typical in other series. It happened three games in a row from 1979 to 1981. Then Florida won 20-0 in 1985, 19-6 in 1988, 16-13 in 1989, and 16-0 in 1991. Meanwhile, LSU won 13-10 in 1987.

The Spurrier era at Florida put the brakes on all that defense, but there was an exception in 1998, when Florida only won 22-10. The best win of the Ron Zook era was the 19-7 win at LSU in 2003. That LSU team would win the BCS Championship. Then in 2006 (a championship year for the Gators), Florida won 23-10.

Even though many of the particularly bad losses were in the 1990s. something else I noticed was that only 5 times in the 14 years from 2000 to 2013 did LSU lose by more than 21. Three of those were to Florida (2000, 2001, and 2008).

(This was originally on the main rivalry blog I linked to earlier:)

2014 Summary and Comparisons

2014 was a more exciting game.  It reminded me of a couple of previous LSU wins.

LSU’s previous win at Florida, in 2010, was very similar.  If you don’t remember, LSU had the fake field goal where the holder flipped the ball and the kicker (Josh Jasper) picked it up off the bounce and ran for a first down.  This eventually set up LSU’s go-ahead touchdown on a fade in the corner of the end zone, the second lead change in the last 3 1/2 minutes of the game.  In that game, the Tigers struggled with kick returns, giving up an 88-yard kickoff return for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter that kept LSU in the game.  LSU had taken the lead in the second quarter after falling behind early on.

For posterity, I’ll give a brief synopsis of the 2014 game. I shouldn’t have to explain the similarities.  A guy named Andre Debose (who scored on the kickoff return in 2010) opened scoring with a touchdown on a punt return, helping Florida to an early 17-7 lead.  The Tigers chipped away at the lead and eventually had the lead going into the fourth quarter. LSU didn’t have a fake in this game, but they did opt to go for it on a fourth and goal in the first half.  This lead to a touchdown.

Turning your attention to the fourth quarter, Dubose had another important return which gave Florida the ball at the LSU 9.  This lead to a touchdown and a lead for the Gators.

When LSU took over possession with just over 6 minutes remaining, QB Anthony Jennings had only thrown one pass for over 10 yards, earlier in the fourth quarter.  So it looked like Florida was in good shape when LSU was down by 4 at their own 38 and facing a third and 25.  Someone forgot to guard Jennings’ favorite receiver for these situations, Travin Dural.  He got the first down and another 16 yards for good measure.  That combined with a Florida personal foul helped set up an LSU touchdown (on a fade pass to the back corner of the end zone) to go up 3.

The mutual struggle of the two teams to lose the game wasn’t over though.  Florida’s Jeff Driskel threw a 73-yard pass to give Florida the ball at the two.  After a couple unsuccessful runs and dropped virtually undefended pass by Florida, Will Muschamp opted not to go for it and the Gators kicked the tying field goal.

Not knowing if Florida may take the lead, LSU had called a timeout to keep time on the clock.  That became a double-edged sword when the LSU drive was abruptly ended by an incompletion and sack in consecutive plays.

Then Florida called a timeout.  This gave the Gators good field position (at the Florida 42… the LSU punter finally had the good sense to kick it out of bounds) and a chance for a potential winning field goal.  Jeff Driskel, who had recently looked like a hero of the game and was moving Florida downfield yet again, threw the ball to the wrong team, giving LSU a chance to win.  Surely the LSU kicker who missed an extra point earlier in the day wouldn’t have a career long from 50 to win, right?  This is a Les Miles team, you learn to just shake your head and laugh.

The other game this reminded me of was actually before Les Miles though.  It was in 2004 and was the last time Saban faced the Gators as LSU head coach.  Saban was only 1-3 against Florida going into the game and had one of his worst losses (at least among the games not played against Florida) on the road the previous week.  Even though they had changed starting quarterbacks, LSU also fell behind early, 14-0.  The first score was set up by an interception return deep in LSU territory.

LSU shrunk the Florida lead over time but they still trailed by four with just over 2 minutes remaining and had not done much on offense since the field goal drive that opened the second half.  Another potential field goal had been blocked in the interim, but nothing had come very close to the end zone.

This crazy offensive coordinator named Jimbo Fisher decides to call three running plays in the first four plays of a two-minute drill.  But the man who got the ball in those three plays was Joseph Addai, who ran for a total of 34 yards in those plays.

Then Marcus Randall, the QB who had been benched to start the game, was sacked, bringing up a third down from the Florida 10 with LSU needing a touchdown to take the lead.  After a play action, none of the LSU wide receivers were open; but in rushing the passer, Florida forgot to guard an eligible receiver named Joseph Addai, who had sneaked through the line.  Addai caught the ball at about the 8 and went all the way into the end zone to give LSU its only lead of the game, which it held onto for the remaining 30 seconds.

The 2014 win was the second in three LSU games at Florida and the fourth win in seven games at Florida, the latter run following seven consecutive losses.

Next week, some time before Wednesday, I will also have more to say about the Pete Carroll USC teams, as I had some comments to share in reaction to the “30 for 30” entry “Trojan Horse”.

SEC Wednesday #3

In College Football, General LSU, Post-game, Preview, SEC Wednesdays on October 14, 2015 at 5:51 PM

Sorry for the delay. I’ll mention it briefly below, but I was caught a little bit offguard when I read about the Spurrier resignation/retirement.  Naturally, I wanted to know more details.  As I mentioned, I thought he was on his way out in the near future; but I thought that was a couple of months to a couple of years away.

Steve Spurrier and Les Miles after what turned out to be Spurrier's last game as

Steve Spurrier and Les Miles after what turned out to be Spurrier’s last game as “head ball coach”. Miles now has the second-longest tenure with one school in the SEC (after Georgia’s Mark Richt).

He was basically a childhood villain of mine, but I’ve learned to enjoy him enough that I think I’ll always have a bit of a smile when remembering him. Even the blowouts against LSU in the Florida years were good in a way.  He reminded us we had a way to go.  I may elaborate more later in the week.  For now, you can revisit my two rivalry blogs: South Carolina and Florida.

Last Week

Ole Miss beat the spread of 43.5.  I thought that was pushing it, but I was glad to get one back after LSU came nowhere close to a similar line against lesser competition the previous week.

However, for the second week in a row, I was wrong about LSU.  The Tigers’ fourth-quarter touchdown made the difference against South Carolina.

It looked like the same exact thing would happen in the Troy-Mississippi St. game, but I was saved by a late Trojan field goal to win by just two points.

I felt good about my Georgia pick until about two minutes left in the first half with the Bulldogs up by 21.  Looks like Georgia has another up-and-down season in store for us.

Speaking of inconsistent (at least against the spread [ATS]), I didn’t think Alabama would let Arkansas hang around, but the Tide needed 17 points in the fourth quarter just to win by 13.

After barely getting by East Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee, Florida dominated its last two opponents, so the Gators’ big win gave me my second losing record in three weeks and drops me to .500 ATS overall (11-11).  I picked the wrong favored road team; but at least I picked the Gators to win, so I was 5-1 for the week in that category to bring my overall record to 18-6.

I'm hardly a visual computer artist, but you get the idea.

I’m hardly a visual computer artist, but you get the idea.

This week

Given the above, I was on the fence about LSU winning until I found out that the quarterback and now a defensive back have been suspended.  Apart from their Week 2 opener in Starkville where they seemed to let off the gas a little too early, LSU seems to do enough to win without making it too dramatic regardless of opponent.  So I have to lean toward my Tigers at home at night.  It takes a pretty good team to go there and win.  The Florida we saw last week or the week before might have qualified.

Treon Harris isn’t a pushover though.  I think he gave them a bit of a spark last year at times.  Florida has come a long way since last year in other areas though, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Harris did about as well as Jeff Driskel did against the Tigers last year (14/25, 183, 1 TD, 2 INT).  Florida nearly won that game.  I had wondered if one of these Florida/LSU games would be Harris vs. Harris, although neither played in the game in Gainesville last season.

Maybe if I pick LSU not to beat the spread (9.5 in this case) two weeks in a row, I’ll be right once.  This has been frustrating so far.  I picked them not to do it against Auburn or South Carolina and then to do it against Eastern Michigan. The only LSU game I’ve been right about ATS so far was Syracuse.

I’ll return to my regular order of discussing games as they are scheduled.

Auburn is a favored (by 2.5) road team in Lexington. I’ll take Kentucky to win.  People are saying the Tigers will benefit from a few extra days off, but why won’t the Wildcats?

I don’t understand Ole Miss.  They beat Alabama by almost as much as they beat Vanderbilt (6 points instead of 11), but then they’ve won three games by 49 or more.  Memphis hasn’t won its games very comfortably—apart from the game against Kansas, who just seems to be killing time before basketball season—either.  It may be close early, but my guess is Ole Miss by a couple of touchdowns (the line is 10.5).  Don’t bet the farm on it though.

I mentioned Jeff Driskel above.  He’s now at Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs of Ruston took Kansas St. to overtime, and Mississippi St. hasn’t been impressive in the past few weeks.  So I’ll take Tech and the points (13.5), with State to win.

Alabama is the favored road team in College Station.  I’ll take the Aggies and four points, but I think Alabama finds a way to win.  I don’t think either team will crack 40 like both did in their last contest in College Station two years ago, but I think Alabama wins by about one possession like they did in that game.  I just think there is a slightly better than even chance that one possession will be four points or fewer.

I have a feeling Vanderbilt will want it more against South Carolina. The Gamecocks played respectably in LSU’s stadium (although it didn’t quite measure up to a typical LSU home game, and they still failed to beat the spread), but I don’t know if we will see a rejuvenated team so soon after the abrupt departure of Spurrier.

The Commodores haven’t really had a bad final score yet, although Georgia did pull away late to win by 17 in Nashville. The Bulldogs have gone downhill since then, and Vanderbilt has gone on to play a good game at Ole Miss, followed by a win over Middle Tennessee on the road.  South Carolina is more talented than Middle Tennessee, but I wonder what (or whom) they’re even playing for at this point.  ESPN gives two different lines depending on where you look.  I’ll take Vandy to win but the +4 just in case.

Finally, Georgia is picked to beat Missouri by 18 between the hedges.  I know Mizzou didn’t do well against Florida (unless Ole Miss is really good after all), but 18 points seems excessive.  Remember, Georgia didn’t even beat Vandy by that much.  Also, in their last home game, Georgia was favored against Alabama but lost by 28.  The Tigers and the points but the Bulldogs to win.

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Week 4 Preview (predictions only)

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By the way, I was notified that I have now been with WordPress for five years.  Time moves so quickly sometimes it’s scary.

Week 6 Rankings and Commentary

In College Football, General LSU, Post-game, Preview, Rankings, Rankings Commentary, Rivalry on October 11, 2015 at 1:55 PM

First off, I wanted to draw attention to my Rivalry Series editions.  I updated the one for Steve Spurrier/South Carolina (I anticipate Saturday’s game was the Visor’s last against the Tigers; I couldn’t stand him in the 1990s, but I will wish him well if that is the case).  Also, obviously Spurrier had a huge impact upon the LSU/Florida rivalry, which will be renewed Saturday night in Death Valley between two undefeated teams.  That information is enough to spark interest in this year’s game, but I think it’s worth reflecting upon some of the other huge games between the two in the last 10 years especially.

Speaking of Florida, I can almost guarantee that if Florida wins this weekend, they will be #1 both in this list and in the computer listing.  However, for now I am keeping Ohio St. #1 and LSU #2.  LSU is 8th in the computer list, but if you divide score by playing week the Tigers rise to 4th.  So LSU is in position with a win to prove they belong at their current spot or better.  If they lose, they’d fall to where the computer puts them, as would Florida.

Florida, Mississippi St., and Alabama are the only visiting programs to win in this stadium since 2008.  The Gators will try to do it again Saturday night.

Florida, Mississippi St., and Alabama (twice) are the only visiting programs to win in this stadium since 2008. The Gators will try to do it again Saturday night.

If Ohio St. comes out first in the computer, they will stay #1.  I haven’t been impressed by the Buckeyes, but I said last week we would not have enough information for a new #1 until next week.  I’ll also say that if TCU comes out first in the computer (not likely), they will become the new #1.  If it’s anyone else, I will consider what the margin is in front of the other teams and upcoming games before I make a decision.

I made a mistake with Michigan St. by putting them near the top the last couple of weeks.  Somehow I gave them credit for beating a much better team than Oregon.  This discrepancy didn’t show up until Oregon lost again and I realized the Spartans were getting way too much credit for their wins so far.

However, since they are undefeated and they do have a game against a top 10 team on Saturday, I didn’t want to drop them too far.  I thought they were still a better top 10 team for now than Temple is.  The Owls play winless Central Florida this weekend (winless means you don’t get points for beating them for the time being), so they may fall out of the top 10 anyway.

The only other change I made from the computer was to leave Ole Miss in the top 25 (they had lost several spots for beating NMSU, which is basically the same as a bye week until the Aggies beat someone) and to leave Memphis out of the top 25.  If I put the wrong team in, that will be proven on the field when Memphis hosts Ole Miss on Saturday.

Other than the possible change to the #1 team I mentioned, my plan for next week is just to rely on the computers.

Everything in the computers has proceeded pretty much as expected.  Utah, TCU, and Iowa got good but not great wins to varying degrees.  This allowed them to pass up Texas A&M, who was idle.  The Aggies are still in the top four when looking at average week though, and of course they can make up some ground by beating Alabama.

Michigan got the big win over previously unbeaten Northwestern, so they were the biggest mover in the top 25 other than Oklahoma, who lost to then-1-4 Texas.  Northwestern fell seven spots for its loss, which I think is reasonable.

Clemson and Florida St. seem to be proceeding nicely to a potential undefeated match-up in November, although the Tigers do have a trip to Miami before that.

I double-checked to make sure Cal lost points for the Utah game but not that many, and the Bears benefitted from a couple of teams slipping downward.

The only other movers worth mentioning were across the Bay, where Stanford was idle and fell two spots, and in South Bend, where Notre Dame improved six spots with the win over previously unbeaten Navy.  Also, Georgia of course fell out of the top 25 after blowing a 21-point lead in Knoxville.

Rank Team Previous
1 Ohio St. 1
2 LSU 2
3 Florida 4
4 Utah 7
5 TCU 9
6 Iowa 10
7 TX A&M 6
8 Michigan 16
9 Okie St. 12
10 Mich. St. 3
11 Temple 11
12 N’western 5
13 Clemson 13
14 Florida St. 21
15 UC-Berkeley 15
16 Penn St.

pennstate

17 Toledo 14
18 Notre Dame 24
19 Alabama 18
20 Baylor 19
21 Houston 20
22 Stanford 17
23 Oklahoma 8
24 UCLA 23
25 Ole Miss 22

Out of rankings (with last week’s rank):

25 Georgia

SEC Wednesday #2

In College Football, Post-game, Preview, SEC Wednesdays on October 7, 2015 at 5:21 PM
I'm hardly a visual computer artist, but you get the idea.

I’m hardly a visual computer artist, but you get the idea.

Last week’s results and comments

I had a much better week this time.  I was 7-2 in picking results and 6-2 against the spread.  This brings my overall records to 13-5 and 9-7.

I’ll start with the ones I got wrong.  I should have gone with my gut on LSU.  Instead, I looked up a bunch of results from this year and last year and convinced myself LSU would suddenly score a bunch of points like they did against teams like New Mexico St. last year.

The only other one I got wrong was Texas A&M-Mississippi St.  I thought the Bulldogs were good enough to keep it close like Arkansas did.  But I was mildly surprised by Arkansas’s win over Tennessee, so the Hogs may not be so bad after all.  Tennessee is apparently awful at winning close games though.

Other than Arkansas, the only winner I got wrong was Florida.  I thought they got a bit lucky to beat Kentucky and Tennessee, but they didn’t let luck even come into play against Ole Miss.  Maybe the Rebels shouldn’t have left their powder-blue helmets at home this time.

South Carolina and Georgia were significantly worse than I thought they would be.  The Gamecocks usually have at least one good game by this point. Other than a close win over North Carolina and beating the spread against Central Florida (and even in that game it looked pretty bad early), it has been a dismal year for Darth Visor (click the link for the “Rivalry Series” post).

I thought top 10 was a reach for Georgia going into the year, but I thought they would have a good chance in the division. Not if they keep playing like they did against Alabama though.  Last year Florida derailed what looked like a straightforward path to the conference title for the Bulldogs.  It will be interesting to see if UGA turns the tables on the Gators.  If not, I don’t think the SEC championship game will be in the cards.  I’m still not looking past Missouri in the SEC East.  I learned my lesson the last two years.

The other correct pick that surprised me a bit was Kentucky.  I know a little bit about FCS teams, and Eastern Kentucky did not strike me as one capable of pulling off an upset of even a low-tier SEC team. Given that they needed overtime, the Wildcats have to be concerned after the late-season collapse last year that things may be doing downhill again.

Predictions for this weekend

I hate to do this again, but I’m picking a Ole Miss minus 6 touchdowns (43.5 to be exact).  I do not believe that New Mexico St. is good at all.  I mentioned they lost to LSU by 8 touchdowns last year.   Being that Ole Miss beat Fresno St. (most likely a better team, at worst a similar team) by over 50, I have to expect a similarly high number.

Spurrier in Columbia, Mo., last week attempting to encourage his team, which he will have to take back on the road Saturday,

Steve Spurrier in Columbia, Mo., last week attempting to encourage his team, which he will have to take back on the road Saturday.

Now back to LSU.  This would have been an easier pick at South Carolina, but still there is no way I’m giving 18.5 points after what happened with Syracuse.  Eastern Michigan was even on the verge of finishing within that margin in Baton Rouge last Saturday night.  LSU could run away with it like they did with the Auburn game; but unless South Carolina has no fight in them at all this season, I have to consider that unlikely.  I will pick LSU to win, however.  A loss would be embarrassing given the Gamecocks’ prior performances this season, especially with the change of venue.

I will go ahead and side with the favored road team in Knoxville, but Georgia is only favored by three.  I see no reason the Dawgs can’t beat the Vols just as well as the Hogs just did.  The Alabama game wasn’t pretty, but a couple of big plays at the end of the half broke that open.  I don’t see Tennessee getting a long passing play and a punt block like that.

Next, Troy travels to Mississippi St.  Troy’s prior games against P5 teams were losses by 28 (North Carolina St.) and 25 (Wisconsin), respectively.  Troy to lose but by fewer than 30 points.

I’m a little leary about this one, but I’ll take Alabama -16.5.  The Tide beat Wisconsin on a neutral field by 18.  I don’t think Bret Bielema’s current team is better than this former team, and let’s not forget the Hogs lost 52-0 there two years ago.

Finally, I don’t really like the five-point window in Columbia (the Columbia that actually will be having a game), but it’s too many points to take from Florida.  I don’t know how the Gators came up with so many points against Ole Miss, but I am skeptical we’ll see a repeat performance against a good defense on the road.  Florida won at Kentucky by five, so I think they’ll win this one but by fewer than five.

Texas A&M and Vanderbilt shall be resting on their laurels this week after exceeding the oddsmakers’ expectations last week.  Kentucky and Auburn, who have both now needed overtime to beat Ohio Valley Conference (FCS) opponents, are also idle.

LSU vs. (Steve Spurrier and) South Carolina

In College Football, Rivalry on October 19, 2012 at 4:53 PM

I’ll just write a brief intro to bring this current (some of which is a repeat from my blog from earlier this week), and I’ll also provide the updated records instead of what I had on the original blog (replaced by ellipses).

LSU is 18-2-1 against South Carolina all time, which now includes four wins in the Spurrier era. South Carolina won the first game between the two schools in 1930 and didn’t win the second until 1994 (its only win in Baton Rouge), then earning the tie in 1995.

This was the 9th time in the LSU/South Carolina series that the game was decided by 8 points or fewer, so LSU is 6-2-1 in such games against the Gamecocks.

If you’ll look at my LSU/Florida rivalry post, I included a list of the larger point totals in that series. In four of the five instances in which the Gators scored over 40 and two of the three instances in which they scored over 50 against the Tigers, Spurrier was their coach. Obviously this game yesterday was a huge game anyway, but it always adds a little extra to the spirit of LSU fans to have Spurrier there.

Spurrier has now fallen to 11-4 against LSU now that he has lost all three games against the Tigers since beginning in South Carolina. Spurrier is now 67 years old, so there may not be too many more games against LSU, particularly if the league sticks with the 6-1-1 format, which means that every year LSU would only play one of the 6 teams in the East apart from Spurrier’s alma mater, who the Tigers play every year. If they continue on the same rotation, LSU will not play South Carolina again until 2021. I have a feeling he won’t still be coaching at 76, but I guess it’s conceivable.

The following was originally posted on The Sporting News September 17, 2007.

The Gamecocks have won 6 of their last 7 SEC road games (7 of 8 overall), the only loss to Florida, 17-16, last season.

LSU has won 6 SEC games in a row, 7 SEC home games in a row, and 15 home games in a row overall. Since losing to Ron Zook’s Florida Gators in 2003, LSU has won 13 of 14 SEC home games and 25 of 26 home games overall. The one loss was the Monday night game against Tennessee in overtime in 2005.

Wins by South Carolina—1930 and 1994, each by 1 point. 1930 was the first meeting between the teams, so 1994, the first SEC game between the schools and first regular-season game since 1983, marked the end of a 12-game series winning streak by the Tigers. The 1994 win was the Gamecocks’ only in Baton Rouge in 9 attempts, fittingly in the last year of Curley Hallman’s tenure. Hallman, who coached 4 seasons, has the lowest winning percentage (36.4) of any LSU coach who coached 10 games or more. Hallman is now coaching at a high school in Alabama [he was fired in short order].

The teams played one game at a neutral site, the 1987 Gator Bowl, which the Tigers won, 30-13.

The teams tied in 1995, the last tie recorded by either team. LSU has since won 2 in a row (2002 and 2003). Of course, in those meetings, the head coaches were Nick Saban and Lou Holtz, not to be confused with Lou Saban and Skip Holtz.

LSU/Steve Spurrier

Speaking of Nick Saban, after losing to Saban’s last Michigan St. team, 37-34, in the 1999 Citrus Bowl, Spurrier defeated Saban’s first two teams at LSU (2000 and 2001), 41-9 and 44-15, respectively. Despite this, in that last season Spurrier coached the Gators, LSU won the SEC, LSU’s first outright conference title in 15 years.

[At Florida,] Spurrier l[ed] his own series against LSU, 11-1. This includes 4-1 against LSU teams who would finish with winning records, and 3-1 against such teams in Baton Rouge.

LSU’s only win against [Florida under] Spurrier was in 1997. LSU was the first team to beat the Gators after their 1996 national championship, and Florida was 5-0 at the time. 1997 was also an odd year in that it was also his only year at UF that Spurrier lost to the Georgia Bulldogs. Those were the Gators’ only two losses on the year.

On the other hand, circumstances have changed in Tigerland since Spurrier left for the NFL. In the 4+ seasons since Spurrier left the Gators, LSU is 32-9 in conference regular-season games, 17-3 at home. LSU was 41-60-1 in conference games while Spurrier was at Florida, 23-28 at home.

Rivalry Series
Team List:
Alabama (2011 pre-game)
Arkansas
Auburn (2010 post-game)
Florida
Mississippi St.
Ole Miss
Tennessee (2011 post game)
Texas A&M

Special editions:
Pac-12

The Mad Hatter and the Nutt

In College Football, General LSU on November 19, 2011 at 12:15 AM

LSU finishes its regularly-scheduled season with games against Ole Miss and Arkansas, so naturally I thought about one Houston Dale Nutt, Jr., who presumably the SEC will be without next year for the first time since the 1997 season.

Feel free to check out the Arkansas and Ole Miss editions to my rivalry series, but this is going to be a little bit different.

The first thing I noticed when looking up information for this was that Houston Nutt makes $2.5 million per year. No wonder they fired him. I have more respect for him than most do, but I’m not sure he ever earned that kind of salary.

But he did do a pretty good job against LSU, in recent years especially. His teams have beaten LSU in 1998, 2000, 2002, 2007, 2008, and 2009.

LSU was heavily favored from 2003 to 2005, but in 2005 (the first time Les and Houston squared off), Arkansas (who would finish 4-7) nearly beat an LSU team that won the SEC West and finished 11-2 (one of the two losses being in the SEC championship). It was only 19-17, and the game was played at Tiger Stadium. LSU also barely beat the Hogs in 2006 (31-26), a win which would give the Tigers a Sugar Bowl berth.

Those two games set up Arkansas’s win over the #1 Tigers in 2007, at which point Houston was on his way out the door for not doing more with Felix Jones and Darren McFadden that season. I don’t know if it was Bo Pelini or what the situation was, but LSU could not handle those guys. It was a miracle the Tigers had won in 2006, when Jones and McFadden each averaged over 8 ½ yards per carry. LSU gave up over 300 yards rushing before sack yardage was subtracted, and the Tigers also gave up 33 passing yards to McFadden in two attempts (more yards than the Hogs got in Casey Dick’s 17 attempts). In the 2007 game, Arkansas gained 385 yards on the ground, albeit with the aid of three overtimes to pad its numbers. Dick did better as well, which forced LSU to pay more attention to the pass. Given this, the final score was surprising again.

So since 2000 (Saban’s first year with the Tigers), LSU only had easy wins against Nutt’s teams in 2003 (when LSU won the national championship and Arkansas went 9-4, which included a 55-24 loss to LSU) and in 2004, when Arkansas went 5-6 to LSU’s 9-3 and the Hogs lost, 43-14. So despite that finish, Saban was only 3-2 against Houston when he was at LSU. The only Saban-era win not covered was when LSU beat Arkansas, 41-38, in a fairly evenly matched game. With the win, LSU won the SEC West and would win the SEC and the Sugar Bowl. Saban has not lost to a Nutt team since taking over at Alabama, although he did have close calls in 2007 (41-38) and 2008 (24-20).

In 1998, LSU was in the middle of a 3-15 stretch covering two seasons and they lost to Arkansas, 41-14. LSU had won the previous four games in the series. My absolute favorite win over a Nutt team was in 1999 when LSU ended that run, with an interim head coach on the sidelines, beating a bowl-bound Arkansas team, 35-10. Arkansas finished 8-4, and LSU finished 3-8. The Tigers have not had a losing season (or even lost more more than 5 games in a season) since. I’m guessing Saban would have taken the job anyway, but it meant so much to me as a fan because I knew we had a much better team than that, and it was something to give us hope going forward. By the way, Gerry DiNardo, who was fired as head coach before that 1999 Arkansas game, was once on the same staff with Les Miles in Colorado. Gary Barnett, another big name in coaching in the 1990s, was also on that staff. It’s interesting that Miles took so much longer to get a major head coaching opportunity.

In total, Houston is 6-7 (2-1 at Ole Miss) against LSU going into Saturday. He’s 3-3 against Les Miles.

Let’s compare to some other coaches vs. LSU since 1995:
Jim Donnan, 2-0*
Steve Spurrier, 6-3*
Bob Davie, 2-1*
Bobby Petrino, 2-1
Tommy Tuberville, 7-7 (2-2 at Ole Miss)*
Urban Meyer, 3-3
Mark Richt, 3-3
Hal Mumme, 2-2*
Mike DuBose, 2-2*
Phillip Fullmer, 2-4
Nick Saban, 2-4
(only coaches with two wins or more are included)
*-at least one win was during the 3-15 stretch mentioned above (in the cases of Donnan, Mumme, and DuBose, both wins were during that stretch; Spurrier and Tuberville also got two wins apiece during that period)

Vs. Les Miles (2005 to present):
Joe Paterno, 1-0
Bobby Petrino, 2-1
Mark Richt, 2-1
Urban Meyer, 3-3
Rich Brooks, 1-1
Nick Saban, 2-3
Gene Chizik, 1-2
Phillip Fullmer, 1-2
Tommy Tuberville, 1-3
Steve Spurrier, 0-2
(coaches in the first category or with at least one win are included)

So Nutt and Urban Meyer are the only two coaches that beat a Les Miles team 3 times in the last 6 seasons. You can see why Les compared Nutt to Meyer here. It’s interesting how Les appreciates it when he has trouble with an opponent.

Only Tommy Tuberville has more wins against LSU since 1995 than Nutt does. Steve Spurrier, who is tied with Nutt, is the only other coach who is close. Only Meyer and Richt have even half as many wins over LSU in that time (although of course neither has coached continuously in the SEC since 1998).

Teams against Les Miles with LSU (two games or more)
Georgia 2-1
Arkansas 3-3
Florida 3-4
Ole Miss 2-4
Kentucky 1-2
Alabama 2-5
Auburn 2-5
Tennessee 1-4
Appalachian St. 0-2
UL-Lafayette 0-2
Louisiana Tech 0-2
North Texas 0-2
South Carolina 0-2
West Virginia 0-2
Vanderbilt 0-3
Tulane 0-4
Mississippi St. 0-7

I noted that Les’s Oklahoma St. teams only played one SEC team while he was there, the 2003 Cotton Bowl, which the Cowboys lost to Ole Miss. So the Rebels are actually 3-4 against Les as head coach.

Les was 1-1 against Louisiana Tech while at Oklahoma St. and 1-0 against UL-Lafayette.

And not that this has anything to do with the above, but he was 1-1 against Iowa St., the loss coming in Ames in his first season.

Rivalry Series: LSU vs. Florida

In College Football, General LSU, History, Rivalry on October 14, 2010 at 10:50 PM

NOTE: The 2016 LSU-Florida game has been postponed to November. This will be the first game in the series outside of the month of October since 1984 and the first in November since 1972. The two teams tied in both 1972 and 1984,

Overall records (edited after the 2016 game)
Florida leads, 33-29-3
In Baton Rouge, Florida leads, 17-16
In Gainesville, Florida leads, 16-13-3

Longest winning streak–Florida, 9 wins, 1988-1996
Longest LSU winning streak–4 wins, 1977-1980

Home/away streaks
Florida won 4 in a row at LSU, 1989-1995
LSU won 3 in a row at Florida, 1959-1963 (will try to tie next year)
Florida won 7 in a row at home, 1988-2000
LSU won 3 in a row at home, 1937-1954 (the middle game was played in 1941) and 2011-2015

Longest streaks with only one loss:
Florida, 13/14, 1988-2001
LSU, 5/6, 1958-1963, 1977-1982, and 2010-2015

Biggest wins:
Florida, 55, 58-3 in 1993 (@ LSU)
LSU, 41, 48-7 in 1971

Biggest shutout wins:
LSU, 23, in both 1961 (@Florida) and 1962
Florida, 20, 1985 (@ LSU)

Highest point totals
:
1. Florida, 58, 1993*
2. Florida, 56, 1996*
3. Florida, 51, 2008
4. LSU, 48, 1971
5. Florida, 44, 2001*
6. Florida, 42, 1994*
t7. Florida, 41, 2000*
t7. LSU, 41, 2011
9. LSU, 37, 1967
10. LSU, 36, 1977 and 2002

*=during Steve Spurrier’s tenure

Recent games (since 2004)

10/06/2017 LSU @ Florida L 19 27
10/14/2017 LSU (9-4) @ Florida (4-7) W 17 16
11/19/2016 LSU (8-4) vs. Florida (9-4) L 10 16
10/17/2015 LSU (9-3) vs. Florida (10-4) W 35 28
10/11/2014 LSU (8-5) @ Florida (7-5) W 30 27
10/12/2013 LSU (10-3) vs. Florida (4-8) W 17 6
10/06/2012 LSU (10-3) @ Florida (11-2) L 6 14
10/08/2011 LSU (13-1) vs. Florida (7-6) W 41 11
10/09/2010 LSU (11-2) @ Florida (8-5) W 33 29
10/10/2009 LSU (9-4) vs. Florida (13-1) L 3 13
10/11/2008 LSU (8-5) @ Florida (13-1) L 21 51
10/06/2007 LSU (12-2) vs. Florida (9-4) W 28 24
10/07/2006 LSU (11-2) @ Florida (13-1) L 10 23
10/15/2005 LSU (11-2) vs. Florida (9-3) W 21 17
10/9/2004 LSU (9-3) @ Florida (7-5) W 24 21

The italicized games were all decided by one possession.  The records above are final records for the season.

2011 to present (for more in-depth details from 2004 to 2014, see here)

LSU ran over almost everyone in the 2011 season on the way to an SEC title before losing a rematch in the BCS Championship to Alabama.  Florida was no exception, as LSU won, 41-11.

In 2012, with LSU struggling to break in a new quarterback (Georgia transfer Zach Mettenberger), Florida won 14-6 on the way to an 11-1 regular season.

LSU was strong in 2013 despite the eventual three losses (all in close games to teams that were very good at the time), but Florida only had four wins that year.  LSU won a fairly uneventful contest, 17-6.  Florida had been ranked going into the game but would not win another game all season.

LSU won close games in both 2014 and 2015.  Both games were tied late in the game.  In 2014, it appeared the Gators may be driving for the winning points, but LSU came up with an interception before hitting a long field goal to win.  This was slightly surprising given that the same kicker had missed an extra point earlier in the game.

In 2015, Florida tied the game on a 72-yard punt return with just over 1 minute left in the third quarter.  With 10:40 left in the game, LSU got into field goal position.  Even though it was a fourth and long, it wasn’t exactly shocking to see the kicker run around the end and catch a pass from the holder.  Unlike Josh Jasper in 2010, Trent Domingue made it all the way to the end zone.  Florida made it to midfield a couple of times, but one drive ended after an incompletion on fourth and 10 and the other ended when the clock ran out and Florida QB Treon Harris threw the ball out bounds.

This is only the second time LSU won three home games in a row against the Gators.  The previous time it was three games spread out over 18 seasons.  This was also the third time and first since 1982 that LSU has won five times in six contests against the Gators.  Also, since 2007, LSU is 12 for 16 on fourth downs against the Gators with at least four successful fakes, three of them fake field goals.  LSU has converted its last six fourth-down-conversion attempts against Florida.

In 2016, it was Florida stopping LSU on fourth down, avoiding what would have been a 17-16 LSU win in Baton Rouge.

That happened to be the exact final score in Gainesville in 2017.

This was the first year since 1980 in which LSU beat Auburn and Florida with at least one of those wins coming on the road. Just like this year, there were also wins at Florida and at home against Auburn that season. That year was the last of four consecutive LSU wins against Florida, which has not been repeated since then. LSU has won 6 of 8 against the Gators and 3 of the last 4 in Gainesville though. All three of those wins in Gainesville were decided in the final moments, and this was the ninth LSU-Florida game since (and including) 2004 that was decided by one possession.

Before the loss to LSU, Florida had won 14 of 15 home games and 10 of the last 11 decided by 8 points or fewer (with the previous close loss coming to LSU in 2015). Now both LSU and Texas A&M have won close games in the Swamp (by 1 and 2 points respectively) in consecutive weeks. The Gators’ remaining home games this season are against UAB and Florida St.

New narrative, 2002-2010

The original TSN post is below after the date it was written (10/2/07), but it was written before one of the best games in the series, at least in my recollection. 2007 was not the game that made Urban Meyer cry (see below for 2005), but it was Urban’s next visit to Tiger Stadium. I meant it was the best because of the play, not because of how it seemed to affect the Florida coach. I think even Florida fans would be hard-pressed to say the 2007 game wasn’t an incredible display of college football. I’ll get to the details below.

Actually, I’ll go back to 2002 since that’s the year this became a competitive rivalry again after Florida had won 13 of 14 before that. The series did not turn around with LSU’s hiring of Nick Saban but with Steve Spurrier’s departure from Florida. LSU did win the SEC in 2001, but only after a 44-15 loss to the Gators, which followed a 41-9 loss in Saban’s first year. I’ll give the ESPN links for the game recaps.

In 2002, LSU essentially was two different teams. One rebounded from an opening loss in Blacksburg to put together a 6-game winning streak, during which they looked much like the team that ended 2001 with a separate 6-game winning streak on the way to LSU’s first undisputed SEC title since 1986 (and first of any nature since 1988). That is the team that played Florida in Gainesville and won easily, the first win @ Florida since 1986 (no, that’s not deja vu or a copying error). (See below for the historic significance of the margin of victory.) The other LSU team is what we ended up with after Matt Mauck (who would be the hero of the 2003 season) fell to injury and Marcus Randall took over, although the downward spiral wasn’t entirely the fault of that one position of course. The Tigers would finish the season with 4 losses in 6 games, including a 1-point loss in the regular-season finale against Arkansas that kept them from returning to the SEC Championship game. Florida would finish with the exact same record of 8-5.

Florida (3-3 going into the game) wasn’t intimidated in their return trip to Baton Rouge, where they had won 6 out of 7, to face the 5-0 Tigers. Despite impressive numbers against weaker teams, 2003‘s offense had shown some weakness against Georgia three weeks before. Florida’s defense apparently came out with something to prove after giving up 36 points to the Tigers in Gainesville the season before and Florida won, 19-7. LSU would get the last laugh, as they finished 13-1 with a BCS title and Florida once again finished 8-5. On the other hand, it is still annoying to LSU fans that we’re supposed to “share” the national title with USC, and that is largely Florida’s fault.

In 2004, Florida had started 3-1 with a 2-point loss to Tennessee as the only blemish. LSU already had two losses and would have had three were it not for several missed extra points by Oregon St. kicker Alexis Serna. LSU’s first two road trips were a last-minute one-point loss to Auburn and a 45-16 thrashing at the hands of Georgia the week before (tied for the third-worst loss of the Nick Saban era…two of those top four were losses to Steve Spurrier’s Gators). I don’t recall the spread, but it could not have been surprising that Florida got out to a 14-0 lead. LSU outscored them the rest of the way, however, 24-7. Consecutive home losses to LSU for the first time since 1980 and 1982 were probably not the reason, but LSU broke the tie against Ron Zook, and the record has remained 2-1 ever since. This time LSU would finish the regular season on a 6-game winning streak before giving up a hail mary to lose to Iowa in the bowl game, in Nick Saban’s final game. Florida once again finished with 5 losses (can’t do that three years in a row in Gainesville).

Since then, it has been Urban Meyer vs. Les Miles and surprisingly to some, the two are now dead even.

I mentioned that despite Urban Meyer’s tears (maybe because he lost to Les Miles, come to think of it), 2005 wasn’t as good as 2007 would be. Meyer refused to answer a question about Miles in the post-game press conference this year, by the way. Interestingly enough, Florida was LSU’s first home win in 2005, despite it coming on Oct. 8. LSU had their regularly scheduled opener postponed, their next scheduled home game against Arizona St. was moved to Tempe, and the Tigers lost a heart-breaker to Tennessee before road games against Mississippi St. and Vanderbilt. LSU was more sloppy that year, and the Florida game was decided based on mistakes rather than great plays. LSU turned the ball over 5 times, suffered 5 sacks, and was penalized 11 times in the win. This came after 4 turnovers and 14 penalties in the prior game against Vanderbilt. This time, LSU got out to a 14-point first-quarter lead before falling behind. The Tigers won with the only fourth-quarter points, a touchdown with about 12:30 left. Until the final Florida drive ended due to the clock running out, every other drive from then on ended with a punt.

I don’t know if it was Katrina or Les Miles’ first season or just the leadership that we had on the team, but that team was like a derailed train at times. It was really fast and could run you over, but it could also crash and burn at a moment’s notice. Although LSU finished 11-2 that year, LSU nearly lost to Arizona St. before a second-half comeback, it blew a 21-0 halftime lead over Tennessee to lose in overtime, and it was also lucky to escape with a win over Auburn in overtime (as it was lucky to beat Florida). In the second loss, LSU just ran out of steam and got destroyed by Georgia in the SEC Championship game. It didn’t help matters that the Tigers already knew the national championship was out of reach. In other games that year, LSU beat Alabama by 3 in overtime and Arkansas by 2. LSU was certainly ready for Miami in the Peach Bowl, which they would win, 40-3. Combined with losses to Alabama and South Carolina, the Gators’ win over Georgia in their next game was not enough to give Florida the East title, but the Gators won the Outback Bowl to finish 9-3.

In the 2006 game, the sloppiness continued for LSU, but this time Florida took advantage. LSU turned the ball over 5 times. LSU took a 7-0 lead after a 9-play, 73-yard drive, but then gave the ball to Florida with a fumbled punt return that led to a tying touchdown for the Gators. The Tigers then had the ball on the Florida 2 with a chance to take the lead again, but JaMarcus Russell fumbled. Florida would instead take the lead in the waning seconds of the first half. Then, LSU fumbled the second half kickoff for a safety, giving Florida a 9-point lead. Tim Tebow had a good game, but that one was lost by LSU five times as much as it was won by Florida. Florida would win the national championship over Ohio St., and LSU didn’t do too poorly for the season either, finishing 11-2 after winning the Sugar Bowl over Notre Dame.

2007 was won simply by virtue of Les Miles’ refusals to send out the punting team and Jacob Hester’s refusals to go down. This might sound vaguely familiar…After taking some chances, LSU scored a touchdown on its final drive, beating Florida by 4 to go 6-0 for the season. Good thing LSU isn’t traveling to Lexington next week. The earlier parts of the game went a little bit differently. Florida had three separate 10-point leads before a combination of ball control and defense kept the Gators scoreless for the fourth quarter. LSU had two fourth-down conversions on the final drive alone and was 5-5 on fourth downs for the game. Not coincidentally, LSU had a time of possession of almost 36 minutes and Florida had the ball for less than three minutes in the fourth quarter. LSU’s final drive was 15 plays for 60 yards and took up 8:11. LSU only led for the final 70 seconds of the game, and the only tie had been at 0-0. LSU would become the first team in recent memory to be the consensus national champions with two losses, 12-2. Florida, which had entered the game with a 4-1 record, would finish 9-4.

I’m going to be a bit lazy and forego reliving 2008 and 2009 except for a condensed version of events. In 2008, Florida got out to a 20-0 lead. LSU rallied to get back to within 6, but two quick touchdowns for the Gators followed. It was officially over on the first play in the fourth quarter, LSU quarterback Jarrett Lee threw a touchdown to the wrong team to give Florida a 41-14 lead. With an LSU touchdown instead it would have been at least conceivable for LSU to complete a comeback, but our defense just couldn’t keep up quite well enough. Florida would win the national championship while LSU would finish 8-5. Last year, it (obviously) was more of a defensive struggle, 13-3. It was every bit as week an offensive performance by LSU as the score indicated. LSU had under 100 passing yards and under 70 rushing yards. The Tigers had nine penalties and were 1-9 on third downs. It’s truly amazing that the defense was able to hold Florida to 13 with such little assistance. The Gators dealt LSU its first loss for the second consecutive season and for the third time in 7 seasons. Florida of course lost the SEC title rematch with Alabama for their only loss of the season before winning the Sugar Bowl over Cincinnati. LSU finished 9-4 after a CapitalOne Bowl loss to Penn St.

Finally, that takes us to 2014. With the win, LSU became the only team to have beaten Florida on the road three times since 2002 (inclusive). Ole Miss is the only other team to have done it twice in that time period. I’m almost certain Florida is the only team to have won at LSU twice in that same time period. Anyway, this year wasn’t like 2007 where LSU was battling from behind the whole night or 2005 where Florida’s ineptness on offense saved LSU’s mistakes from hurting them. This was the best LSU looked as compared to Florida (again, they both played great in 2007, but LSU didn’t look much better if better at all) since 2002 despite the close score. The Tigers outgained the Gators, 385-243. There were similarities to 2007 in that LSU converted two fourth downs (including the crazy fake field goal) and had the ball for almost 10 minutes longer than Florida did. Also, the 2007 game and just now were the only instances of a second consecutive loss by Florida under Urban Meyer.

Florida had kept it close by taking over (and then scoring touchdowns) at the LSU 17 twice, once after an interception and once after a punt. Both gave the Gators 4-point early leads. LSU also had what should have been a safety canceled due to an incidental facemask on the tackle before either of those touchdown drives. It was very reminiscent of 2006 except despite all of that, LSU still led by 6 at the half. I’ll give credit to Andre Debose for his return that brought the Gators to within 5, but still, it was set up by a short kick and all but a few Tigers ran past him before they seemed to realize it had been a short kick. So LSU could have easily ended up winning in a blowout, but like I told one of my blogging colleagues, I’ll take a win at Florida however they can get it, especially when throughout the 1990s, that seemed like a complete impossibility.

2005, 2007, and 2010 (LSU’s last three wins in the series) were each by exactly 4 points. Five of LSU’s last 7 wins in the series were by four points or fewer (including 3-point wins in 1987 and 2004). LSU won by 7 in 1997 and by 29 in 2002. The 2002 win was LSU’s biggest since 1971, which was the first of 40 consecutive seasons in which this series has been played now. 2002 was also the only times since 1980 that LSU even won by two touchdowns or more.’

LSU has never dealt Florida its only loss. The Gators finished 13-1 in three of the last four seasons and beat LSU every time. But aside from those, LSU has won 4 in a row.

Original SportingNews blog


Oct 02, 2007 04:18 AM

As I mentioned in that rankings blog, this is LSU’s first AP #1 appearance since 1959, and when they relinquished #1 that November, it was because the Tigers had suffered their first loss after 19 consecutive wins.

LSU has won 7 SEC games in a row, 8 SEC home games in a row, and 16 home games in a row overall. The Tigers also have the nation’s second-longest winning streak at 12 games. The last loss? Florida.

Since losing to Ron Zook’s Florida Gators in LSU’s national championship year of 2003, LSU has won 14 of 15 SEC home games and 26 of 27 home games overall. The one loss was the Monday night game against Tennessee in overtime shortly after Hurricane Rita left the area in 2005.

Recent history of LSU and the rivalry

I have a couple of TSN friends (if not more) who are in high school, and people that age—or people that don’t remember the late ’80s and early ’90s in college football for whatever reason—don’t realize just how low the LSU program had gotten and that it was a very difficult process over 9 seasons that eventually led to a national championship in 2003, an event still dismissed by USC fans as charity (a couple tangents are below).

Where did LSU come from?

I know this is a compliment in a way, but I actually see people who list LSU as their least-favorite team. Usually least favorites are teams with a significant resume of dominance—USC (slowed down in the ’90s but still were usually a bowl team, had won a national championship almost 20 years more recently than LSU had before 2003), Alabama (claims 13 national championships; although a few are sketchy at best, that’s still impressive), Florida (LSU wasn’t the only SEC they dominated from the late ’80s until the Ron Zook era), Notre Dame (0-5 doesn’t erase being the one of the most successful and storied programs in college football), Michigan (not far behind N.D.), etc.

My point is that I can’t imagine that, for all teams you can choose to be the #1 team you want to lose, you’re going to target a program with 8 losing seasons of the last 18? LSU finished with 4 or fewer wins four times from 1992-1999, with a fifth in 1989.

Anyway, I thought reclaiming the #1 spot before this game was interesting, and you’ll see why in a minute. Where did LSU come from? After six consecutive losing seasons, LSU hired former Notre Dame player and then-Vanderbilt head coach Gerry DiNardo, who had more than doubled Vandy’s average number of wins per season. His recruiting wouldn’t quite take, but he was hired for his ability to get the most out of a small talent pool. He managed 16 SEC wins in 3 years when the Tigers had had only 14 in those six losing seasons combined.

Background for 1997 game

After an “only” 18-point loss to #3 Florida in 1995, a match-up between undefeateds in 1996—#12 LSU @ #1 Florida—was picked up by CBS. LSU had already gone on the road to knock off #14 Auburn, whom they had beaten the year before when Auburn was ranked #5, which had garnered LSU its first national ranking since early starting 0-2 in 1989. Not only would Florida defeat LSU for the 9th consecutive season, but they humiliated the Tigers, 56-13. It was the second time in 4 years Florida had beaten LSU by over 40 (the first, a 58-3 loss at Tiger Stadium in 1993 which ESPN actually apologized for broadcasting) and third time in four years the Gators won by more than 3 touchdowns.

LSU would finish the 1996 season 10-2, the only other loss a continuation of an Alabama undefeated streak in Baton Rouge that would be 30 years old before it ended. Florida, of course, finished with 1 loss, @ Florida St. by a field goal, before winning the national championship that year.

In preseason 1997, the Gators held onto #1, and LSU actually got its first top-10 ranking that pre-season since its loss @ Ohio St. in week 4 of the 1988 season.]

Florida rolled into the LSU game in early October still undefeated, and after a 3-point loss to Auburn and 1-point win against Vanderbilt, the Tigers had slipped to #14, lower than they had been the year before. But, not wanting to pass up on a chance to have the #1 team on its airwaves, ESPN decided to give the Florida-LSU series another shot. They wouldn’t regret it, as the Tigers won, 28-21.

See the connection? Loss to Auburn by 3 at home…#1 team in the country…LSU-Florida…upset.

At least the #1 team is at home this time, and the other team isn’t trying to get revenge for the year before, or for the nine years before for that matter.

And if this game needed an extra boost (not likely), it will be the debut of Mike VI, LSU’s new live tiger mascot. A Mike the Tiger has intimidated visiting football teams since 1936, almost the entire history of LSU’s membership in the SEC. Terry Bowden commented that on his first visit to Tiger Stadium, he was given a rude welcome by Mike V and was reminded why coaches wear dark pants.

Urban Meyer wouldn’t have provided as many meals, and Mike V was in his old age (3 days shy of his 16th birthday), so Meyer didn’t mention anything about the tiger, but Urban’s first visit to Tiger Stadium, a 21-17 loss two years ago, caused him to weep openly after the game.

The all-time series

(See above for updated overall records)

Since going 1-13 against Florida from 1988 to 2001 (including 1-11 against Spurrier, see the link to the South Carolina series below), LSU has won 3 of 5 in the series, but only one of the three (Urban Meyer’s first visit, mentioned above) was in Baton Rouge.

The only other times that a 3-2 record occurred for either team were between 1954 and 1961. There were two windows of time that the teams were 2-2-1 over five years, 1980-84 and 1982-86. But even those years can also be viewed as parts of various streaks.

LSU went 3-0-1 in the first four games between the programs, which took place between 1937 and 1954. Since then, there has only been one gap in the rivalry, from 1968 to 1970.

Florida responded with a 3-0 streak to tie but would not take the lead until after one-time LSU head coach Bill Arnsparger hired Steve Spurrier at Florida, where Arnsparger had become the AD.

LSU then won 5 of 6, the first game of that group was in LSU’s championship season in 1958, which earned LSU its first of those 19 straight weeks on top, and in the second LSU was ranked #1. So LSU is 1-0 against Florida with LSU as #1, but this is the first time LSU was ranked #1 while hosting the Gators.

Florida and LSU then repeated the first 7 games, but in reverse: Florida went 3-0 followed by LSU going 3-0-1 from 1967-73.

Florida responded with yet another 3-0 streak. LSU then won 4 in a row. Florida went 3-1-1 over the next five years, from 1981-85. After the Tigers won the next two in a row, they didn’t win again until 1997.

1977-1987 was the best long-term LSU run, 7-3-1, which included 4-0-1 at Florida. The second-best was 8-4-1 to start the series, from 1937 to 1963.

LSU has not won 4 of 6 against the Gators since it won 5 of 6 from 1977-82.

Florida is LSU’s seventh most-common opponent. While the LSU-Kentucky series (which I’ll get to next) takes its next break, the Gators will move up to fifth, as Florida is only one behind Kentucky and Rice, who will be tied for fifth after this year, and LSU has no plans to renew its rivalry with Rice.

This will be the 37th consecutive season that LSU has played Florida, the sixth-longest streak overall for LSU and fourth-longest active streak after Mississippi State, Ole Miss, and Alabama. Tulane and Kentucky are the longer streaks that have ended.

Other installments of the LSU rivalry series:
(Obsolete; see here instead)

Approval Rating: 100% (out of 8 reviews).