Week 11 Top 25

This is kind of a rushed post. I always add the new rankings Saturday night or Sunday morning even if it takes until it’s sunrise for some of you; but for those who subscribe by email, it will not notify you when that is posted. Feel free to check whenever you get up on Sunday. I don’t always manage to post the conference ratings until Sunday afternoon though. By that time, I’ve also usually checked to see if any teams are out of place to make any needed corrections.

Until now, the top 25 in the blog was different from the computer top 25; but now that I’ve added the “weighted” component of the ratings, that will no longer be the case.

I apologize for this being so late, but normally I don’t even have to respond to anything work-related after 4:30 Pacific, but I was given a bunch of work right before 4:30 since one of my colleagues is on vacation. I didn’t want to have to scramble around at the last minute on Sunday, and of course I don’t want to be at all distracted on Saturday.

I also didn’t have time to update the Arkansas rivalry blog, but I should be able to update both that and the Texas A&M series this weekend. Obviously the A&M one will need to be updated again in about 8 days, so it’s possible I might wait until then.

LSU players gather around the LSU/Arkansas rivalry trophy in Fayetteville on Saturday. I can’t tell who the players in the back are, but the ones in front are (l to r) WR Jaray Jenkins, P Jay Bramblett, and S Sage Ryan.

I’ll only comment briefly about the top 25 given time constraints of it being late and there being games in less than 14 hours.

Commentary about Rankings Changes

Tennessee has passed up Michigan, but this is rather academic being that the Ohio St./Michigan winner is expected to pass up the Vols and remain ahead until the bowl season. The loser is expected to be behind the Vols and stay there until the bowl season.

With the win over Ole Miss, Alabama has passed up the Tigers, but this also likely doesn’t mean much as to the final pre-bowl ratings. If LSU loses a third game and Alabama doesn’t (unlikely against FCS Austin Peay or Auburn), Alabama will be ahead. If LSU beats UAB, Texas A&M, and Georgia, LSU will be ahead regardless of what the Tide does. I’m not making promises aout the top 4, but LSU may also pass up multiple other teams, especially those who don’t play a championship game, with wins in the remaining contests.

I doubt it has a bearing on the national championship picture, but the Pac-12 is very interesting. I was correct in suggesting people pay attention to the Washington-Oregon game last week. Putting the Huskies’ new rating aside, the Pac-12 now has four teams between #9 and #13. That’s interesting enough, but all four of those teams play another one of those teams this weekend. There will be two one-loss teams and possibly three two-loss teams in the conference heading into the final weekend. The championship now involves the best two teams, so every two-loss team after this week may still have a realistic chance if one of the winners were to lose next week.

I don’t have a whole lot to say about Texas-San Antonio (who mostly has moved up by virtue of not losing in not-very-good conference, or Oklahoma St., who has been in and out of the top 25 due to inconsistent performance.

But there is another interesting new team, which is Central Florida. You may have heard of them. The Knights will potentially unseat Tulane from a New Years Six spot by virtue of beating the Green Wave; however, there is also some potential drama in the closing weeks regarding crowning a champion of the American conference. The Knights, who have beaten both teams already, will most likely play the winner of Cincinnati (which made the Playoff last year) and Tulane (set for November 26) in championship week.

I completely disagree with championship games that simply match the two best teams, particularly when they involve a rematch (which, if the winner has a better record, is completely unfair to whomever won the first time), but it does help make for some excitement.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Georgia	1
2	Ohio St.	2
3	Texas Christian	3
4	Tennessee	5
5	Michigan	4
6	Clemson	6
7	Alabama	11
8	LSU	8
9	USC	9
10	N Carolina	15
11	Penn St.	17
12	Utah	13
13	UCLA	7
14	Oregon	10
15	Notre Dame	18
16	Ole Miss	12
17	Central Florida	—
18	Florida St.	18
19	Coastal Carolina	21
20	Troy	24
21	Kansas St.	20
22	Washington	—
23	Tulane	16
24	TX San Antonio	—
25	Oklahoma St.	—
—	N Carolina St.	14
—	Texas	19
—	Syracuse	22
—	Liberty	25

2022 Week 1 Top 25

I’ve had some computer problems that have prevented me from writing more and posting blogs when people are most likely to read them.  I have switched browsers for blog-posting; but if that doesn’t work, I may have to go to a new site.  If that happens, I will do my best to post a link here.  You can also follow me on Facebook for updates.  I also have a twitter account @TheBayouBlogger.

I will elaborate further later in the week, but I just wanted to say a few things about the LSU game and some of the reactions.

I HATE how the media is always in competition to say the most dramatic outlandish things after a single game.  There is no accountability for being wrong, they just get more clicks by being dramatic.  If it were up to the media alarmists, Ed Orgeron wouldn’t have made it past the Troy game.  Les Miles wouldn’t have lasted past the loss to Tennessee in 2005. (I don’t remember it being this bad in 2000, but I’ll get to that.)  Oh all problems at LSU aren’t fixed, I guess Brian Kelly stole 10 million dollars!  He should never show his face in public again after a one-point loss to a Power 5 opponent at a neutral site (FSU fans were there in droves, don’t give me that)! He’s blaming everyone but himself when he cited coaching as an issue four times in an 11-minute press conference!  He made a sarcastic comment about how maybe they could have played worse at halftime!

Then every November and December, these same people decry how fast coaches get fired after their fan bases are bombarded with dire negativity after every loss.  Some of them (Colin Cowherd, for instance) even attacked LSU in 2019 (when the Tigers had NO losses all year), saying they weren’t up to snuff because they allowed too many points and yards to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss in garbage time.

Top 25

I don’t like to shake things up too much after one game. Two months from now, I won’t really care about margin of victory; but I think a couple of these teams showed more problems than teams like Notre Dame and Cincinnati showed in losses. All four Division I teams Brian Kelly has coached lost this week.

I think replacing Utah with Florida was obvious, but the game certainly could have gone the other way. Even Oregon might well be a top-25 team. In 2006, Arkansas lost by even more to USC (the defending national runner-up); and the Razorbacks were national-title contenders until late November.

I listed six teams that I thought were good candidates for the last spot in preseason, but Maryland was the only one that played up to expectations. Obviously, the Terps may not be a top-25 team, but there was no obvious candidate to move ahead of them. One team I considered was Penn St., who had a good win at Purdue. Another was Indiana, who beat Illinois after the Illini easily beat Wyoming in “Week 0”, so right now there are seven Big Ten teams in my top 30. Not quite as many as the SEC, but close.

I only have the Bulldogs #3, but they certainly put up the most impressive score of the weekend. Pictured is Kenny McIntosh finding the corner of the end zone for a rushing touchdown during the first half against the Oregon Ducks in Atlanta on Saturday.

Some have said Georgia should be #2, but I think Notre Dame is significantly better than Oregon at the moment. I certainly understand if people who believed Oregon was a top-10 team differ with that assessment.

I think most of the changes are obvious if you just look at the results of a given team. The only one who slipped a little who might not be obvious based on the final score is Kentucky, who won 37-13 over Miami U.; but they only led 13-10 at halftime, and they only out-gained the RedHawks by 53 yards on offense.

Rank	Team	Last
1	Alabama	1
2	Ohio St.	2
3	Georgia	5
4	Clemson	3
5	Michigan St.	6
6	Michigan	8
7	Ole Miss	9
8	Arkansas	11
9	Oklahoma St.	12
10	Oklahoma	13
11	Baylor	14
12	Texas A&M	15
13	Cincinnati	4
14	Notre Dame	7
15	Iowa	10
16	Mississippi St.	19
17	B. Young	17
18	TX Christian	18
19	N. Carolina St.	16
20	Kentucky	18
21	U. Miami	21
22	Wake Forest	22
23	Pittsburgh	23
24	Florida	—
25	Maryland	—
—	Utah	24
—	Oregon	25

i thought it was easier to just include the teams that fell out on the same chart.

2022 Preseason Top 25

Transfers and “Returning” Starters

This is not to complain or make excuses, but the college football landscape has changed a good bit since 2019.  Some of it was due to COVID, but a lot of it is just due to the changing business of college football.  I might not have even used the phrase “business of college football” a few years ago, but the bottom line definitely comes first even for most of the well-known players now.

I can’t do what I used to do (most recently in the lead-up to the 2019 season) and just look at how good a team was last year and the returning starters.  Not that that was ever ALL I did, but it was a very good place to start.  After the top 10 or so, you didn’t really have to go into much detail about who those players were.

One of the things that fundamentally changed how to do this is the transfer portal.  A player might transfer out of a school at one position and a player who’s just as good or better (or at least has the same status as returning starter) might transfer in.  A change at a position isn’t necessarily a negative.  Sometimes it’s an upgrade.  That was rarely true in the past.  If you brought in a new quarterback, that guy had probably never started a game before.  Even if he was a better recruit, he wasn’t ready to be a starter at the beginning of the season like a veteran would be. 

The disappointment of his NFL career notwithstanding, a good example of this was JaMarcus Russell, who started his first game at Florida in 2004, Nick Saban’s last year.  LSU had a veteran quarterback on the sidelines named Marcus Randall (confusing, I know).  It looked like LSU was going to lose the game after the first few series with JaMarcus in the game (it’s less confusing to me if I call him that).  In contrast to JaMarcus (who as you may recall was the #1 draft pick over the great Brady Quinn), Randall would go undrafted and ended up being a defensive player.  His only official NFL stat was three tackles with the Tennessee Titans in 2005.  Anyway, Randall came in to salvage the game and helped lead the Tigers to a respectable season. (They were a botched final play away from going 10-2.)  With all the potential JaMarcus had compared to Randall, it was still better to have a veteran in that situation.

Marcus Randall (owner of the yellow helmet you can barely see in the back) was best known for throwing the “Bluegrass Miracle” winning touchdown pass as Kentucky fans began to storm the field and take the goalposts down.

In a more recent era, there might have been a graduate transfer or transfer portal player who stepped in for that year.  If he were eligible for two seasons, JaMarcus might have transferred out in light of losing the job that day. 

I also don’t know which QBs (the most important position to have a returning starter) even count.  Is Max Johnson a “returning” starter albeit on another team (I heard today he’s not even a starter, but he would have counted if he’d stayed at LSU even if he ended up not starting)?  Haynes King started last season for the Aggies but only played in two games (completing fewer passes than LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier), does he count?  Bo Nix?  TJ Finley?  Jayden Daniels?  That’s just talking about QBs who went to LSU or competed against a one-time LSU player, so you could have this conversation about every team at some position.

Philosophy of Preseason Ranking

I guess I’ve also gotten more mature and learned to relax better.  Part of that means I’m not going to invest time into reinventing the wheel when there are knowledgeable people who do this stuff for a living. I’ve also grown accustomed to the idea that that will probably never be me. 

In light of that, I’ve decided to just rely on a third party to calculate how much returning production there is per team.  This is even more important than in pre-COVID years because the final team ratings last year were still thrown off by canceled bowl games and other COVID-related events.  Anyway, I don’t have any objection to their formula. I’m just assuming they’re not made-up numbers.

The Top 15 is only partially based on last year and this formula anyway.  Given what Georgia has done in recent years, I wasn’t comfortable dropping the Bulldogs out of the top five despite not having that much talent back by this measure.  I also didn’t want to drop Baylor and Oklahoma State any more spots until they lose to someone.

I could have been a homer and snuck LSU in there, but I didn’t.  Brian Kelly is a much more proven head coach than Lincoln Riley and Brent Venables, so I’m also not bending over backwards to put USC and Oklahoma very high (Oklahoma is in the heart of the top 25, but it’s low for them).  USC could have returned 100% of its production from last year, and that wouldn’t be enough for me to put them in the top 25.  Maybe USC or LSU will be knocking on the door of the top 10 by the end of the year, but I don’t just wipe the slate clean because you got a new coach and some transfers.  Either could also be highly mediocre.  You have to show everyone gelled and things are working out for a period of time to rehabilitate the respective losing records of last year (when USC was much worse than LSU, for the record).

I also want to make clear that (although I do think it’s relevant what a team’s overall ability to achieve is), this isn’t a prediction for the rankings at the end of the season.  It’s more which teams I think are likely to have their act together in the next month.   Otherwise I wouldn’t have put the Big XII teams as high as they are. 

Even though it’s not an end-of-year prediction, I sort of pre-screened the top 15 for teams that might do well for a long period of time, I just happened to run out of teams that I could see competing for the playoff right when I got to #15. I do think those Big XII teams might get blown out in a playoff, but I could see any of the three going undefeated (or certainly finishing with only one loss) in the Big XII.  Arkansas and Ole Miss are long shots, but only because they play in the SEC West.  If they were in the Big XII, they would be in the same boat, maybe even a little bit ahead of that group.

After #15, I just calculated the most usable version of my computer rating system and multiplied it by returning production converted into a percentage.  I tried a few different ways of multiplying it out, and there wasn’t a difference in the order for most teams.  I did prefer the outcome where they were two fewer Group of Five teams.  Houston and Boise St. were left out in lieu of Utah and Oregon.  The Power Five teams had slightly more returning production, and Power Five teams almost invariably have deeper benches.  I didn’t move anyone in numbers 16 through 25 even one spot once I settled on the final formula.

Comments about Selected Teams

Alabama was the runaway #1 in the formula. Obviously they’ve been the best team in the long run.  The Tide have only failed to win 13 games or more once since (and including) 2015.  They didn’t reach that mark in 2013 or 2014; but in 2013 (before there was a Playoff) the Tide started 11-0 before the Kick Six game, and in 2014 the Tide lost only one regular-season game before falling to Ohio St. in the national semifinal.

There is a strong chance Alabama will face Georgia in the postseason yet again.

By the way, even though obviously it did nothing for LSU, I am glad that Alabama fans got to feel the frustration of losing a national championship to a team you had already beaten.  It’s not fair to have to beat them twice.  One thing that doesn’t make it quite as bad is Alabama at least has one more loss than Georgia does.  In 2011, LSU finished 13-1 (against a better schedule) and Alabama 12-1.

Speaking of Ohio St. (two paragraphs up), the Buckeyes had the best returning production on the list after BYU and Mississippi St.  I couldn’t see a strong argument to make anyone else #2.

Clemson is still the most-recent national champion who doesn’t play in the SEC and also had good returning production, so I thought they deserved the nod for #3.

Cincinnati was #4 8 months ago and has a decent number of players coming back.  Like the Georgia Bulldogs I mentioned, I wanted to keep Cincinnati in the top 5 until someone else earned their way in. I put the Bearcats higher because they have a good bit more coming back. Georgia probably still has a better team, but I’ll wait until the new players prove themselves.

I am a little more skeptical of Michigan.  There was a big gap between Michigan and Georgia in the bowl.  I think the Wolverines got up to this point more quickly and have a larger propensity to fall back down.  I was proven wrong about them in the Big Ten (which might be the most exciting conference race) last year though.  Maybe I will be again.  If a team who loses a semifinal game was in my top 8, I won’t consider myself that wrong though.

Nine to 11 might seem strange, but I didn’t know where else to put them.  The cupboard isn’t looking bare for them like it is for 12 to 14.  They’re all credible up-and-coming major-conference programs.  I guess I could have put them after Texas A&M, but I’m less comfortable with the teams I would have had to put higher.  I did decide to keep Arkansas out of the top 10 given that I’d think there have to be some lingering effects from only winning 7 games from 2018 through 2020.  Also, it’s hard to be any higher when you had a 3-game losing streak (that included a loss to Auburn) the season before.  The Razorbacks played down to Mississippi St. and LSU (beating each by a single field goal) down the stretch as well before a good showing against Alabama. 

As for Ole Miss, they finished 10 spots ahead of Iowa last year in my ratings, so I’ll give them a slight edge despite not having quite the same returning group.  I don’t fault Iowa for the losses to Michigan and Kentucky to end the year, but like Arkansas, the Hawkeyes had an ugly stretch toward the middle (barely beat Penn St., whom the Razorbacks beat somewhat comfortably, at home, lost by a few possessions apiece to Purdue and Wisconsin, and only beat Northwestern by 5).  I don’t think the downside risk is as bad for the Hawkeyes (who have only lost 9 games in the past three years and have not had a losing record since 2012) as it is for the Razorbacks though. 

That’s about three pages of writing on my Word document.  I’ll have to leave it there.

Top 25

1. Alabama
2. Ohio St.
3. Clemson
4. Cincinnati
5. Georgia
6. Michigan St.
7. Notre Dame
8. Michigan
9. Ole Miss
10. Iowa
11. Arkansas
12. Oklahoma St.
13. Oklahoma
14. Baylor
15. Texas A&M
16. North Carolina St.
17. Brigham Young
18. Kentucky
19. Mississippi St.
20. Texas Christian
21. U. Miami
22. Wake Forest
23. Pittsburgh
24. Utah
25. Oregon

Honorable mention: Houston, Maryland, LSU, Boise St., SMU, San Diego St.

Maryland went 7-2 last year against teams outside of the top ten, including a 54-10 win over Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl late last year.

Brian Kelly Timeline and New Rankings

Brian Kelly Timeline

In the last blog, I decided not to speculate on some aspects of how the deal that brought Kelly to LSU materialized (through his agent) when and how it did.  I’m glad that I didn’t because more information has come out.  It’s not completely different from what I thought, but the picture is more complete now. 

Brian Kelly made an interesting comment to Rece Davis in an interview on GameDay.   He said that his agent Trace Armstrong told him about several inquiries that he had received; but he only discussed this at the end of the season.  Unless his agent called his wife and cleared it with her first, I don’t think he meant the very end of the season.  I suspect that he wasn’t so overwhelmed with the stress of Notre Dame’s looming game against 3-8 Stanford that he took a little bit of time to have conversations with his agent and his family during the week prior to that game.  It is plausible that the only direct conversation with Woodward was after the Stanford game though, and it makes sense that everything had to become settled relatively quickly.  My conclusion about Kelly having some prior conversations is also supported by LSU grad Booger McFarland, who said the deal with Kelly (or at least the formal offer) was already on the verge of being finalized on Saturday.

Rece Davis interviewed Brian Kelly in a meeting room on the LSU campus. The interview aired on GameDay yesterday.

I think Armstrong knew Kelly and Woodward were keeping quiet, so he had the opportunity to fill the void by suggesting the job was actually going to Riley.  Riley was probably going to USC at that point anyway, but Armstrong was able to get a more favorable contract approved more quickly than he would have otherwise.  It didn’t hurt Kelly that he was able to stay under the radar as long as he did.  Whether Riley’s name floating around helped Woodward to secure the funding I’m not sure.  Some have speculated that Woodward knew a long time ago, perhaps before even taking the job or at least before the Orgeron announcement, the money was going to be in place.

I imagine someone at LSU other than Scott Woodward had to be apprised of the situation to finalize the deal even though Woodward was given broad latitude.  At that point a leak was inevitable.  Any major news about LSU football gets all over town very quickly.  I’m not saying the leak was out of malice.  It might have just been to calm down some of the hysteria regarding Riley going to another team.  Some worried that Riley was the guy Woodward was counting on all this time and that he didn’t have a backup plan.

There was an article by former LSU beat writer Ross Dellenger, who now works for Sports Illustrated.  It says that Woodward made one last phone call to Jimbo Fisher prior to the weekend before proceeding with hiring Kelly.  I hope that isn’t true; but if it is, I’m glad Jimbo said no.  I know Woodward likes to hire champions, but Fisher left Florida St. as it was going down the tubes in the years after his national title there.  I certainly think his is an improvement over the previous coaching staff in College Station, but you don’t pay someone a salary like that to go 8-4.  I’m not certain Kelly will do better, but I’d rather have the uncertainty than the knowledge of what Jimbo has done in recent years.  If he were available, I think it would have cost a lot more than the Kelly deal did anyway.

Ratings and Playoff Commentary

I mentioned last week that Alabama did not schedule well out of conference; but the Tide played 6 games against SEC West opponents, all of whom were bowl-eligible and which included #9 Ole Miss, as well as otherwise-undefeated Georgia and 7-5 Tennessee. 

I explained last week that Oklahoma St. had a very good schedule, and it was even better than Alabama’s.  This is why the Cowboys are ranked higher than Notre Dame despite the additional loss.  To illustrate this point, Virginia and West Virginia are both 6-6 with almost identical strengths of schedule.  Notre Dame beat Virginia, while Oklahoma St. beat West Virginia.  Notre Dame only beat two teams that were better: Purdue and Wisconsin.  Oklahoma St. beat four teams that were better: Boise St., Kansas St., Baylor, and Oklahoma.  Both teams won 2/3 of their games against better teams, but being tested more often should give Oklahoma St. the edge. Even if we expand it to the top 80 (we are still talking about risky opponents here—#76 TCU beat Baylor, #77 Illinois beat two ranked teams on the road, and #70 Florida was a field goal away from beating Alabama), Oklahoma St. still played almost twice as many in that range.

Baylor does belong lower than Notre Dame though.  Although BYU was a good non-conference opponent, the Bears scheduled Texas St. (who went 4-8 and is my #111) and Texas Southern (who only beat two other FCS opponents).  Although they essentially played the game conference schedule as Oklahoma St. did, losing to bad teams is punished a little more harshly.  As mentioned, TCU is #76.  Iowa St., who beat Oklahoma St., is #49. 

All three are relatively close though.  There is more than twice as much separation between #4 Cincinnati and #5 Oklahoma St. than there is between #5 Oklahoma St. and #7 Baylor.  There is just under twice as much space between #7 Baylor and #8 Ohio St.

There is a consensus about who the four semifinal teams should be and since the focus of my ratings is creating a fair objective top four, I could not be more satisfied.  You can quibble about how high UL-Lafayette and UT-San Antonio are—I think teams like Michigan St., Oklahoma, and Utah would beat both easily—but I don’t mind giving credit to successful seasons.  Even with an expanded playoff, I wouldn’t want teams with more than one or two losses this season in it, so I don’t mind if 1-loss ULL or 1-loss UTSA are higher than teams who would be highly favored to beat them.

I also think if Cincinnati played number 5 through 10 they’d be lucky to win one or two.  On the other hand, the Bearcats are 1-0 against that group; and a lot of people would have told you out of 10 tries Oregon would beat Utah 9 or 10 of them.  If you missed it, the Ducks had two shots at the Utes and fell far short both times.  Anyway, I also don’t think a two-loss non-champion would be more deserving of a slot in the top 4 even if they look better to me.  Oklahoma St. and others had their chances and fell short. About a foot short in the case of Oklahoma St. against Baylor.  The best Cowboy teams always lose to Iowa St. though. This also happened 10 years ago when the Cowboys missed the top two in favor of the Tide.

Houston stayed close with Cincinnati for a while, so I don’t love the fact that they fell out of the top 25; but Utah St. deserved to move back into it after their solid win over San Diego St. for the Mountain West title.  I like seeing some stability as far as which teams are in the top 25.  In the last three weeks, only four teams have fallen out.  Utah St. was one of those four, so there are only three different teams than there were three weeks ago. 

Championship losers San Diego St., Appalachian St., and Wake Forest all managed to stay in the top 25.  There needs to be a penalty for losing; but just like I’m glad Oklahoma St. didn’t fall out of the top 5 in favor of Notre Dame, I like that it’s not so harsh that any of the three fell below enough idle teams to fall out of the top 25.  

Alabama QB Bryce Young drops back to pass in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia in Atlanta on Saturday. Alabama is now the consensus Number 1 team going into the bowls. The Tide will play Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl on December 31.

I wrote everything above last night, but I just wanted to respond briefly to Michigan being placed ahead of Georgia.  It doesn’t really matter who #2 and #3 are, but it’s the only difference between the respective top fours, so I wanted to address it.

Georgia Tech isn’t even in that top 80 group I was talking about, but the Bulldogs are in luck because that’s the third-best team they scheduled out of conference.  I have Clemson just outside of the top 25 and UAB at #50.  Of course they avoided Alabama and Ole Miss in the regular season. Imagine the arguments if they had played Alabama.  Anyway, Arkansas and Auburn as the non-divisional games still aren’t bad.  Michigan’s Big Ten schedule did include some bad teams though.  Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Indiana all have losing records compared to just one in-conference opponent for Georgia that had a losing record.  Michigan’s one Power Five opponent rates worse than Georgia Tech.  MAC champion Northern Illinois was a help and Western Michigan rated similarly to UAB, but it should not be enough to put them ahead.

That said, if the committee made the decision based on the team that will take the field at the end of the month being harder to beat rather than resume, I do agree with Michigan being ahead.  They finished very strong.  If they play the way they played against Ohio St. and Iowa, they can beat anyone.  If Georgia plays the way they played against Alabama, especially with the turnovers, they won’t have much of a chance.

Top 25

Rank	Team	Last
1	Alabama	3
2	Georgia	1
3	Michigan	4
4	Cincinnati	5
5	Oklahoma St.	2
6	Notre Dame	6
7	Baylor	9
8	Ohio St.	7
9	Ole Miss	8
10	B. Young	11
11	UL-Lafayette	16
12	Michigan St.	13
13	Oklahoma	15
14	TX-San Anton’	20
15	Pittsburgh	21
16	Utah	22
17	Wisconsin	18
18	Iowa	10
19	San Diego St.	12
20	Oregon	14
21	Boise St.	24
22	App. State	17
23	Arkansas	25
24	Utah St.	—
25	Wake Forest	19

Out of Rankings: (23) Houston

1-130 computer ratings

Why It Wasn’t Wrong for Kelly to Leave Notre Dame

There was no way to encapsulate all of my thoughts about the events of the last 5 or 6 days into a single blog. For now, I’m going to focus on Kelly leaving Notre Dame and how I understand that happened. I’ve decided to start with a collection of often misrepresented or misunderstood facts and then use those facts to come to reasonable conclusions. Some of the facts may seem a little sarcastic, but it’s not my fault how many people fail to acknowledge such obvious facts in their reaction to this situation. I will discuss Kelly’s fit with LSU and other matters in other blogs.

Facts

Kelly had recently said that for him to leave there needed to be a fairy godmother with a check for a quarter billion dollars OR he had to talk to his wife.

• The only confirmed conversation between Woodward and Kelly was some point between the Notre Dame-Stanford game and the news broke on Monday. 

• Kelly stayed on the West Coast after the game for recruiting for Notre Dame.

• Leaked text of contract was dated Sunday.

• There were widespread reports of a conversation in October, but Kelly said he didn’t engage in any and he can’t speak to what conversations his agent did and didn’t have.

• Kelly said after meeting with a recruit’s family he found out news broke.

• There is no known ability that Brian Kelly has to shut down social media or sports reporters nationwide.

• There have been no documented cases of time travel.

• I’m not sure where he was recruiting, but Stanford plays just south of San Francisco and he said he picked up his lawyer and they left from Orange County, which is South of Los Angeles.

• Kelly probably did not check his phone while with a recruit and also was not available by phone while in the air.  This apparently led some to believe he was deliberately ignoring his assistants.

• Kelly and Lincoln Riley share the same agent.

• When LSU fans were largely under the impression the coach would be Riley, there was a report that a press conference was expected Wednesday or Thursday.

• After texting Monday night while preparing to return, Kelly met with Notre Dame players on Tuesday morning.

• On Tuesday evening, Notre Dame was ranked #6 in the College Football Playoff rankings.

• Kelly would not say whether a higher ranking would have affected his decision.

• The early signing period begins two weeks from the introductory press conference that was on Wednesday.

• Unlike many other successful teams this season, Notre Dame is idle until the bowl games.

• The Notre Dame AD did not ask assistant coaches to return since they were also busy recruiting.

• Brian Kelly was at Notre Dame for 12 years and is the all-time winningest coach in Irish history.

• It is very common for coaching changes to take place after regular-season games but before bowl games, and this has been the case going back decades.

• Games that take place after the regular season are called the post-season, not the mid-season, so leaving after those games is not accurately characterized as “leaving in the middle of the season”.

Inferences and Conclusions

Obviously, I don’t think his agent had meaningful conversations without apprising him or that his wife and family were first given the opportunity to think about it late Saturday night.  I think he kept it vague enough that while he might not know of every conversation, he knew of the conversations that he had with the agent.  My guess is the contract in its final form was drafted on Sunday but not finalized and agreed to until Monday.

In an increasingly rare sight, two coaches each with over 10 years of experience as head coach of their respective schools (Stanford’s David Shaw, left, and Brian Kelly, then of Notre Dame, to the right) exchange pleasantries after a Power-5 football game, which in this case had taken place Saturday night in Stanford, Calif. Approximately 48 hours later, it was revealed in no uncertain terms that Kelly would be leaving the Irish with his last stop in South Bend being early Tuesday morning.

Kelly didn’t want to miss any time recruiting in the event he were to stay at Notre Dame. Although it may hurt in the committee, it makes sense for Notre Dame to take advantage of not having a game coming up to get an edge on the many good teams who do have a game coming up this weekend.  The Notre Dame AD said he didn’t ask any of his coaches to come back to South Bend, so it was busy for them too.  Kelly denied and I heard no reports that Kelly had negotiated with any other teams.

I can understand the frustration of an assistant who just had a meeting with a recruit and sees or hears on his phone somehow that the head coach is leaving and then can’t get in touch with the head coach.  Rather than taking a deep breath and thinking about logistical issues that can arise, apparently this assistant assumed the worst and got on the phone with a reporter to vent his frustrations.  That does not mean Kelly screwed anyone over or left anyone high and dry.  That’s just melodrama the media tried to sell.

Since that was about the worst possible ranking the Irish could have realistically had this week, it’s safe to say that waiting a couple of days wouldn’t have mattered even if the news hadn’t come out.  I don’t think waiting until this coming Sunday was an option though. There may have been a revolution in Baton Rouge if people waited that long without further clarity as to the coaching situation there, and anyone who did know would not have been able to keep quiet that long.

Some people say that he should only have even entertained an offer if they were eliminated, but remember that LSU finished #2 in the BCS rankings in 2007 with two losses.  The Tigers had jumped from #7 to #2 on championship weekend. With that in mind, when are you really out of contention for #4? #10 maybe? So everyone can leave but the coaches with the 9 most successful teams of the year after the regular season? In other words, you can have anyone except the coaches you probably want at that moment. After Brian Kelly’s last game in Cincinnati, the Bearcats were ranked #4. After Nick Saban’s last game at Michigan St., the Spartans were ranked #9. Maybe Saban never coaches in the SEC if such a rule were put in place. Certainly, Notre Dame wouldn’t have hired Brian Kelly the year they did in the first place. So don’t listen to these appeals to principle by Notre Dame fans. They’re fine with taking coaches from the best teams, in their case while an undefeated campaign was ongoing. They just never thought the shoe would be on the other foot.

Also, even if he were 40, you don’t get your best offers after an off year.  Saban didn’t say, “We finally have a good bowl game this year, call me back another year if we go back to the Independence Bowl.” No one at Notre Dame had a problem bringing Kelly in after he had an undefeated season at Cincinnati and they were going to the Sugar Bowl.   I know they’re not national championships, but Michigan St. and Cincinnati aren’t Notre Dame.  Notre Dame had some down years in recent memory, but they didn’t go winless like Michigan St. did before Saban took over.  Michigan St. was a big program at some point, but Cincinnati never was.

Brian Kelly celebrates a dramatic comeback win in the final regular-season game against Pittsburgh in 2009. Cincinnati clinched the Big East championship with the win. Two days later, the New York Times reported Kelly would interview with the Irish. Kelly was selected and negotiations were completed by the following Thursday.

If Kelly had ended up staying at Notre Dame, he wouldn’t have wanted to endanger that by not using this opportunity to recruit.  He certainly wouldn’t have wanted to let on that he was talking to other programs about their job.  That could have left him with neither job.  If LSU didn’t work out and Notre Dame had let him stay, that could have strained a lot of relationships and cost him a chance to win at least one playoff game.  If Georgia beats Alabama comfortably, they’ll be a clear #1 and I wouldn’t give Notre Dame a chance; but if Alabama wins, I don’t know who #1 is.  I guess it would be Michigan, but if Michigan St. beat them Notre Dame can.  This might have been the only really good chance Notre Dame had, and time is not on your side at 60.

I also want to mention that it’s very unlikely that Kelly was offered more than a very brief speech.  The Notre Dame administration would not have wanted him to have conversations with players that could have led to transfers to LSU, nor would they want more than a brief distraction even if that were not a risk.

I know it’s unfortunate that his departure could be used against Notre Dame, but NCAA/CFP college football made this mess, not Lincoln Riley and not Brian Kelly.  They shouldn’t penalize any team for their coach making a rational decision based on the recruiting schedule.

Some say if they’re really harsh it will teach schools a lesson not to fire coaches.  How would punishing Notre Dame teach LSU a lesson?  What?

Others who pretend to take the players’ side say coaches shouldn’t be able to actually leave at this time.  So coaches can make plans to leave, but they’re stuck.  How hard are they going to recruit if they know they’re not getting the player?  For the players the school gets despite the coach potentially blowing it, they’re going to be signing up to play for a coach who won’t even be the coach when they arrive on campus.  Whatever university hires that coach will have a whole recruiting class who didn’t sign up to have that coach.  I’m for the escape valve of the transfer portal (although I think there should be certain date ranges), but you could end up with almost as many players in it as out of it.  I don’t think it would stop coaches from moving if all the other rules stay in place.

The only real solution in my opinion is (1) to not have an early signing day, (2) to make rules about tampering during the season (which for all teams would be through the national title game), and (3) allow six weeks between the allowable period to hire another team’s coach and the one and only national signing day.  The teams who lose a coach and opt not hire a current head coach should still have times to find a replacement and get their new staffs organized in time for recruits to make really good decisions knowing the head coach, coordinator, and school.  Only knowing the school isn’t good enough if you really care about players and you’re not just trying to get clicks from angry Notre Dame fans.

Another person who tried to add fuel to the fire was Lou Holtz, who tried to act like leaving Notre Dame was a huge insult to Notre Dame.  If you don’t remember, Lou Holtz was the guy who left Notre Dame at the age of 59 after 11 seasons, a stark contrast from Kelly’s age of 60 and his departure after 12 seasons.  Holtz then decided he wanted a new challenge of coaching in the SEC, which is also completely different because of reasons. He may claim it was OK because he didn’t go to another team immediately. To me, it’s more selfish to leave to have months for yourself than it is to immediately begin to devote your energies to another group of young men.

I could make fun of bad takes all day long, but I don’t want to be mean and I don’t want to promote their stupidity. I’m not worried about Holtz’s media presence going forward. Although I can’t stand the whole Notre Dame football scene, I have some sympathy for how players and fans may feel right now. I know when they go on about how mediocre or morally deficient Kelly is or how great first time head coach Marcus Freeman is (he may be, but no one really knows yet), they’re really overcompensating for a sudden feeling of insecurity.

Anyway, for a more rational analysis, I recommend this Fox Sports clip of Doug Gottleib. I also thought Rich Eisen, Marcellus Wiley, and Stephen A. Smith (of all people) had reactions worth hearing. I intentionally mention people without any loyalties toward LSU.

I’ve even seen some comments from LSU fans saying we were disappointed when Saban left.  After Katrina, the Saints played the Dolphins in Tiger Stadium.  The biggest cheer all day was when Nick Saban was announced. 

On October 30, 2005, Nick Saban walks the sidelines at Tiger Stadium less than 10 months after his last game with the Tigers. Saban would return again just over three years later as the head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Saban won both the game above over the Saints and the 2008 game over the Tigers. 2010 is still the only instance of Saban losing in Tiger Stadium since he left LSU. His next scheduled trip to Baton Rouge is November 5. He also defeated Kelly’s Irish in the 2012 and 2020 seasons.

LSU fans were sad that Christmas 2004 (which I think was the day Saban decided) and New Year’s 2005 (not to mention the way LSU lost the game that day), but it wasn’t this kind of anger.  Saban probably would have had to stay 15 years to become the all-time winningest coach.  I don’t think many would have begrudged him leaving after that.  Even given that he left after 5 years, people only got angry and hateful toward Saban when he went to Alabama.  If Kelly had gone to USC, then I would relate.  I think the real reason we see the anger from Notre Dame fans is it kind of rubs their noses in it that they’re not this great college program that people will sacrifice tens of millions of dollars just for the privilege of being there. 

I will talk about why the common agent might matter in other blogs.

Anyway, this says absolutely nothing negative about Kelly’s character.  Unless it’s proven that he lied about a large number of things or a large number of conclusions about reported facts are not as they appear, I don’t see any legitimate reason for the negative attention.  I think Notre Dame hopes with the favorable media they get, they can unfairly poison recruits against Kelly.  LSU fans might not have cared about Kelly a week ago, but we shouldn’t let them.

Coach O and Week 13 Top 25

Coach O

I haven’t had time to go into much detail with LSU. Now that there won’t be a full slate of games again, I can update the various rivalry blogs and talk about the new coach when there is one.

I want to say a few things about Coach Orgeron. First, I should acknowledge that I did think it was appropriate to go a different direction with the head coach, so don’t read my praises of the good things he did as criticism of the decision. Coach O admitted and seemingly understands that the last couple of seasons were not up to the LSU standard of performance. I don’t think he has had enough personal interest and enthusiasm in maintaining the 2019 success as he had in getting there, but I will always appreciate what he did in getting there.

There were some ups and downs in the first 54 weeks between Les Miles being relieved of his duties and the day LSU went to Gainesville in 2017; but from that point on, there was a clear upward trajectory. The only losses from that point until 2020 were two games against Alabama (one by 14 and one by 29), one game against Florida (by 8 the next season), and two rigged debacles (against Notre Dame and Texas A&M, respectively) that were decided in the final seconds, neither of which ultimately counted for much. There wouldn’t have been much excitement about a second consecutive Citrus Bowl win anyway, and the A&M loss didn’t deter the Fiesta Bowl from selecting the Tigers. Getting to that bowl, not to mention winning it, was the more important byproduct of the success of the 2018 team.

So unlike what some will tell you now, it wasn’t just one fluke year. Coach O did some serious heavy lifting to get from the team he took over in 2016 to the top of the mountain in 2019, but LSU started with a loss in 2020 and never showed that winning edge again. The Tigers didn’t even win consecutive games until December of 2020 (that season was all conference games) and didn’t win consecutive conference games at any point in 2021.

2021 also marked the second consecutive season in which the Tigers opened with a loss. The one time Les Miles did that in 12 seasons, he was gone within a month. LSU didn’t typically open with weak opponents either. Since 2005, LSU has started with 12 Power-Five opponents, 7 of them ranked in the top 25 at the time of the game.

Jimbo Fisher, former LSU offensive coordinator under Nick Saban and Les Miles who has been mentioned in various LSU coaching searches, exchanges pleasantries with outgoing LSU head coach Ed Orgeron in Baton Rouge on Saturday.

The point is we went from consistently starting on solid ground to only doing so a couple of times under Coach O. In hindsight, UCLA was the beginning of the end. The rumor was that Kentucky was a must-win, and I’m not sure that’s true; but it was definitely not acceptable to lose by 21 after letting Auburn sneak out a win (their first in Baton Rouge since 1999) the week before. That’s when I understand the decision was made. In the excitement yesterday, Coach O said the decision was made after Kansas; but it’s another basketball school that mostly wears blue and starts with a K, so I’m pretty sure he meant Kentucky.

Speaking of Kentucky, there are some LSU fans only who seem upset that the Tigers may hire Wildcat coach Mark Stoops, but they could do much worse. There may be a better coach for the amount they’re willing to spend, but it wouldn’t bother me at all. These are probably the same LSU fans who were heartbroken the Tigers didn’t get Tom Herman, who did much worse at Texas than Coach O did at LSU overall.

Playoff Race

That’s enough about a 6-6 team for now. I’ll move on to the top teams.

Some may be surprised that Oklahoma St. is so high, but that’s mostly a function of the Cowboys not being a team the media wants to hype. They’re not going to drive high TV ratings. It might also be partly because no matter how good they are, they typically lose to Oklahoma. Of course that didn’t happen this year; but the media isn’t going to admit they overlooked someone in the playoff conversation until the end of November, so they’ll pretend they’re fifth or sixth.

The media also forgets that this thing called non-conference scheduling exists. Of course the 8 teams Alabama has played in the SEC are better on average than the 9 teams Oklahoma St. has played in the Big XII, but those other teams matter too. Boise St. is very good team, better than U. Miami, but the low-IQ take is the Hurricanes were ranked when Alabama played them so they must have been good!

Whether you think U. Miami was better or not, one should also acknowledge that the Tide also scheduled Southern Miss and New Mexico St. (as well as an FCS opponent, but Oklahoma St. did the same, so I’m no using that against them for the purposes of the comparison). Southern Miss has had good seasons in the past, but they’ve been mediocre on a good day lately; and NMSU has only made one bowl game in 50 years. The two won a combined three games against FBS opponents for the season. Two of those wins were Saturday, over two teams who themselves have a combined one win over other FBS opponents.

Oklahoma St. wide receiver Tay Martin reaches out for the end zone in the win over the Sooners on Saturday in Stillwater. The Cowboys play Baylor for the Big XII Championship next week.

Alabama will be ahead if they beat Georgia, don’t get me wrong; but don’t fall for the idea of Oklahoma St. being undeserving just because Kirk Herbstreit or whoever doesn’t have them in the top four. I’m also not saying the Pokes are a lock against Baylor, especially since rematches are tough. By the way, they also don’t get nearly enough credit for beating the Bears the first time, just because Baylor hadn’t gotten a high ranking yet. Kansas is almost as bad as USM and NMSU, but obviously that’s a conference game.

As for Michigan, the only reason they’re even close is that they didn’t schedule an FCS opponent. Their average FBS opponent is about #60 whereas the average FBS opponent for Alabama or Oklahoma St. is about #52. The Wolverines scheduled a couple of respectable MAC opponents as well as Washington (who unfortunately had a bad year), but there are a number of mediocre teams in the Big Ten that dragged down their average. The best few teams in the Big Ten may be as good as or better than the best teams in the SEC or the Big XII, but more than one or two are clearly part of the bottom half of college football.

I think Michigan will also deserve to play for a national championship with a win. If the Wolverines play as they did Saturday, they will be hard for anyone to stop; but I like to reward the teams who play more of the types of opponents who are likely to beat a top a team.

Speaking of which, Cincinnati and Notre Dame is a split decision as far as weighted and unweighted; but the Bearcats will be ahead in both with a win on Saturday. I don’t have any qualms about them potentially losing out to four one-loss teams though. If Alabama beats Georgia, I would actually be annoyed if Cincinnati made it in ahead of a winning Oklahoma St. team. Terrific that they won their early-season Super Bowl over Notre Dame, but the results simply do not indicate to me that they could play a Big Ten, SEC, or Big XII schedule including the title game and finish with one loss or fewer.

If it’s undefeated Cincinnati versus two-loss Alabama, who was a field goal away from losing to Florida and who went to four overtimes with Auburn, I’d be on the other side of the argument though. I doubt the Bearcats could play Alabama’s schedule with only two losses either, but I’m willing to resolve that doubt in their favor. Also, Notre Dame, who began the season with narrow wins over Florida St. and Toledo, hasn’t played a ranked team (either currently or at the time) since Cincinnati. I would have no problem leaving the Irish out. In short, I’m not close-minded about teams from lesser conferences; but it should only be considered when multiple other options fall short.

Top 25

rank	team	last
1	Georgia	1
2	Oklahoma St.	3
3	Alabama	5
4	Michigan	7
5	Cincinnati	4
6	Notre Dame	2
7	Ohio St.	6
8	Ole Miss	9
9	Baylor	12
10	Iowa	14
11	B. Young	10
12	San Diego St.	20
13	Michigan St.	15
14	Oregon	21
15	Oklahoma	13
16	UL-Lafayette	19
17	App. State	16
18	Wisconsin	8
19	Wake Forest	18
20	TX-San Anton’	11
21	Pittsburgh	—
22	Utah	22
23	Houston	25
24	Boise St.	17
25	Arkansas	—

Out of Top 25: (23) Texas A&M, (24) Purdue

1-130 computer ratings

2021 Week 12 Top 25

I tried to change something at the last minute last week, and that messed things up for this week.  I don’t like when there are dramatic shifts from one week to the next.  According to the original top 25 last week, I created some unnecessary changes and then in a few cases there were dramatic changes back this week.  I shouldn’t have tried to intervene and temporarily alter my formula last week, so I took the unusual step of changing the rankings for last week.

Redoing the previous final rankings is why I couldn’t get this out sooner, but it’s here now.

Michigan did not lose last week, but the Wolverines got relatively few points for beating Maryland.  This allowed other teams to pass them up.

Oklahoma St. beat Texas Tech, which is a good but not great opponent.  I think it was more helpful that Baylor has now won five of six since losing to the Cowboys and that Boise St. has won four games in a row. 

Also, Cincinnati is still feeling a negative effect from their games against Indiana, Notre Dame, and Navy.  Although when the Bearcats play East Carolina next week, the Navy/East Carolina game won’t really matter, for now it hurts Cincinnati that the Pirates won.  Notre Dame didn’t slip enough in points to fall a spot (especially without Michigan gaining very much), but their value as a win went down and will go down again.  Indiana still only has a single win against an FBS opponent.

Although Alabama beat a decent team in Arkansas, many SEC teams took a hit to their respective strengths of schedule this past week, so the win was not quite enough to put the Tide ahead of the Bearcats.  Auburn is slightly better than East Carolina, so I do expect the Tide to move up with a win.

C.J. Stroud threw for 6 touchdowns (all in the first half) and 432 yards with and only 3 incompletions in 35 attempts for the game. Three different receivers had over 100 receiving yards. Ohio St. also had over 200 rushing yards.

Ohio St. shot up in many rankings because of their margin of victory over Michigan St., but as much as that helped, don’t forget that they lost to Oregon.  So it hurt the Buckeyes in my rankings that the Ducks lost.  It will probably help the playoff ranking though, because they intentionally lowered Ohio St. for losing to Oregon given that Oregon had the same number of losses.  With this logic (not mine), it’s better to lose to 2-loss Oregon than 1-loss Oregon.  None of this really matters if they beat Michigan and Wisconsin.  I don’t see any scenario where that wouldn’t be enough to put Ohio St. in the top 4.  Same thing if Michigan beats Ohio St. and Wisconsin.

I didn’t investigate why Appalachian St. went up so much, but I believe it’s because of prior opponents such as U. Miami and Coastal Carolina.  The Mountaineers have a much better strength of schedule than UL-Lafayette.  The reason the “weighted” ratings are so named is they provide extra points as the scores of the best opponents improve, so it’s harder to see the direct correlation between what happened last week and the new ratings.  Also, the loss to Texas hurts UL-Lafayette (who didn’t play Coastal Carolina) more every week.  The Ragin’ Cajuns play the Mountaineers on Championship Saturday anyway, so they can confirm if they really are better.

The only other movement that may seem a little strange is San Diego St. dropping three spots.  The Aztecs played UNLV, so they didn’t get many points from that, and other teams were able to pass them.  There was a similar logic to Texas A&M falling two spots.

Anyway, this is basically the formula I’m going to follow the rest of the year.  The only slight tweak is that it’s not a perfect average between the weighted and unweighted ratings, the latter of which make up maybe 55% of the overall rating.  I could change the weighted formula so the bonus points aren’t so high, but it’s just easier to do it this way.

I noticed based on the Massey comparison site that I give the majority of the MAC better ratings than the other ratings represented on Massey’s site (at least as of Sunday evening). I double-checked every team to see if there was any problem and couldn’t find one.

rank	team	last
1	Georgia	1
2	Notre Dame	2
3	Oklahoma St.	6
4	Cincinnati	4
5	Alabama	5
6	Ohio St.	7
7	Michigan	3
8	Wisconsin	10
9	Ole Miss	12
10	B. Young	9
11	UTSA	15
12	Baylor	16
13	Oklahoma	18
14	Iowa	14
15	Michigan St.	11
16	App. State	22
17	Boise St.	19
18	Wake Forest	8
19	UL-Lafayette	20
20	SDSU	17
21	Oregon	13
22	Utah	25
23	Texas A&M	21
24	Purdue	24
25	Houston	—

Out of Rankings: (23) Utah St.

1-130 computer ratings

2021 Week 11 Top 25

NOTE: These rankings have been redone, so some of this commentary is moot. I had subtracted extra points for losses, but upon reflection, I believe consistency is a better approach. The main team that I thought justified doing so only moved a couple of spots anyway.

I spent a lot of time considering what the best approach is for this week. When in doubt, I think it’s better to follow the recommendations given to me by incorporating what I call the weighted formula of my ratings. Rather than giving each team a score based on wins relative to strength of schedule and a set amount for beating or losing to a team of a certain quality and leaving it at that, the weighted formula gives additional credit for beating very good teams.

I do think the less “big” games don’t get enough attention though (such as the “conventional wisdom” regarding teams like Oregon… more on that in a moment), so I only consider the weighted ratings as part of the overall picture. I think it’s too distorted to look at them by themselves. The overall rating is a sort of average between the two placed on a 10-point scale. Since Georgia is the clear #1 in both, I set their value at 10 exactly. I think this makes it easier for an outside observer to understand what the numbers mean.

In hindsight, I probably shouldn’t have let Alabama go up so many spots last week. I didn’t even look up their opponent this week. Although they went almost down to where they were before (New Mexico St. isn’t much more valuable than a bye week), I decided to only drop the Tide one spot below last week. Arkansas (Alabama’s next opponent) is a good bit better than SMU (Cincinnati’s opponent) or Texas Tech (Oklahoma St.’s opponent). Weird coincidence that all three are playing former Southwest Conference teams. Arkansas would be #25 if I strictly followed the computer.

Ohio St. is the other team I decided to keep the Tide ahead of. The Buckeyes have the best pair of opponents for the last two weeks of the regular season of any team; but with the degree of difficulty in winning both (and the fact that one is currently ahead), I think it’s fair to keep them where they are. I don’t mind if Ohio St. makes a leap after one or both wins.

Although neither opponent is bad, Cincinnati has the second-worst pair of opponents among teams that I think should be under consideration for the playoff.

The worst pair of opponents belongs to Notre Dame. I think the Irish would beat Georgia Tech and Stanford even if their coaches and top players stayed home.

So given the weakness of Cincinnati’s and Notre Dame’s remaining schedules (they get even worse when you consider Notre Dame will not be invited to a conference championship and Cincinnati will play the American West champion) and given the likelihood of at least one loss for Ohio St. in the coming few weeks, I thought it was good to keep them where they are for now.

Why keep Notre Dame so high though? One reason is although Michigan is better than Ohio St. right now, I am not confident enough in the Wolverines beating Ohio St. to put the Wolverines #2. Alabama would be too high relative to their computer rating to be #2 and also has an above-average chance of losing. Oklahoma St. has too high of risk of losing “Bedlam” and/or the Big XII championship. In short, I’m comfortable keeping Notre Dame where they are because (although I expect them to slip) they’ve already beaten the several teams most likely to beat them. Michigan and Oklahoma St. haven’t even played the single respective teams most likely to beat them.

Kyren Williams of Notre Dame stretches for a 20-yard touchdown that put the Irish up 21-0 before halftime on Saturday in Charlottesville. Williams led all rushers for 70 total yards. Notre Dame may have peaked relative to other teams, but I believe they’re a deserving #2 at the moment.

Oregon did a little bit better with the weighted rankings, but there is only so much credit I’m willing to give for a single game. They play fairly good (but not great) opponents in the final weeks, but I don’t see the Ducks joining what I think the Playoff conversation should be without significant upsets, such as Notre Dame or Cincinnati losing one of those games, such as Michigan losing to Maryland and then beating Ohio St., such as a loss by Alabama, such as a 2- or 3-loss team winning the Big XII. Every team in front of them doesn’t have to lose but a lot do.

One reason teams like Oregon are higher now is that I decided to punish a little more for losses. Wisconsin has three, so that’s why the Badgers have fallen despite being a very good team in recent weeks. (The Buckeyes shouldn’t exactly be cocky against them either.) The Badgers also don’t have wins over particularly impressive teams, which is a limitation in the weighted formula.

Texas A&M also has three losses now. Like Oregon, the Aggies do have the one impressive win. Also like Oregon, one struggles to be even mildly impressed with the other wins. They beat Auburn (who now has 4 losses, and Bama would make 5) at home; but LSU (who may well finish with 7 losses) should have done the same and Mississippi St. dominated at Auburn (in the second half anyway). TAMU’s non-divisional schedule is hard to be impressed with: Kent St., Colorado (whom they only beat 10-7), New Mexico, Missouri, South Carolina, and Prairie View. Anyway, the reasons for their fall go a lot deeper than losing to Ole Miss. A couple of weeks ago, A&M went up 10 spots in one week. In hindsight, that shouldn’t have happened.

The Aggies remain ahead of Arkansas and Mississippi St., the other two opponents who beat them. This was regardless of whether I rigidly followed the computers, but I did decide for the purposes of the transition to keep A&M ahead of the newly added teams. Usually I don’t have transitions like this so late in the season, but I usually do a lot of things that I haven’t been able to do. It’s been a weird couple of years… in these challenging times, etc.

rank team last
1 Georgia 1
2 Notre Dame 2
3 Michigan 4
4 Cincinnati 5
5 Alabama 3
6 Oklahoma St. 6
7 Ohio St. 7
8 Wake Forest 12
9 B. Young 8
10 Wisconsin 11
11 Michigan St. 13
12 Ole Miss 17
13 Oregon 15
14 Iowa 16
15 TX-San Anton’ 14
16 Baylor 19
17 San Diego St. 18
18 Oklahoma 10
19 Boise St. 24
20 UL-Lafayette 22
21 Texas A&M 9
22 App. State —
23 Utah St. —
24 Purdue 20
25 Utah —

Out of top 25: (21) Penn St.. (23) Auburn, (25) Pittsburgh

2021 Weeks 9 and 10 Top 25

Week 9

As I mentioned in the last blog, I was coming back from vacation this week. I was able to get the computer ratings for last week done, but it was too late to write a blog. With the complications of coming back and my other obligations in life, I wasn’t able to feel caught up on work enough to even start working on the ratings (for Week 9) until after 5 on Friday.

I did want to make a couple of comments about last week. I think after Georgia, it was more appropriate to list the best few major undefeated ahead of Notre Dame and Michigan. Michigan had lost to Michigan St., so that part was obvious. I guess the computer was trying to tell me something, but it seemed like a good idea at the time.

This was what I considered to be the top 10 going into Week 10:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan St.
3. Wake Forest
4. Michigan
5. Cincinnati
6. Notre Dame
7. Ohio St.
8. Alabama
9. Oklahoma
10. Oklahoma St.

Wake Forest was already in the top 3 of the computer in Week 8, so I didn’t do anything special there. Michigan St. and Cincinnati were placed ahead of teams they beat. Since Oklahoma didn’t beat any really good teams in a single game AND doesn’t have a series of good wins (and struggled in some of their poorer wins), I didn’t move them ahead of anyone by virtue of being undefeated. By the way, expect Cincinnati to fall down on my list even if they don’t lose.

Michigan St. RB Kenneth Walker III (9) runs through the secondary in the second half in East Lansing on October 30. Walker ran for nearly 200 yards in the game. The Spartans then played Purdue, apparently the worst possible opponent after a big win.

I understand the argument that if two teams are roughly similar, you put the head-to-head winner first. That’s part of the reason why Michigan St. and Cincinnati were ahead of Notre Dame and Michigan. That logic doesn’t apply to Oregon and Ohio St. The computer separated the two by 8 spots (now 9). Losing to a team that’s 7-1 should hurt a lot less than losing to a team that was 3-5 going into Week 10 (and now has a sixth loss), and the quality of wins are also not really close even with Oregon having the one good one. I don’t think there are any other good teams in the Pac-12. “Fair to middling” basically describes the whole conference apart from Oregon and winless Arizona. The rest had between 2 and 5 wins going into the week.

“Why play the game” is a non-argument. As a result of playing the game, Oregon is in the top 20 and Ohio St. is not in the top 5. Why give one week more importance than the other 8? I guess that’s not as simple and cliché, so not as many people will mindlessly repeat it.

Forty percent of the top 50 teams in Week 9 either had a bye or a loss, so there was some turnover as the natural sorting-out process takes place. Also, this was the first week where no team had an extra playing week due to having played in “week zero”, so that helps make the ratings more in line with quality of play. Except for Army, who has an extra playing week after conference championships to make up for two byes so far, all teams had either 8 or 9 playing weeks going into Week 10.

Beyond the top 10 I just followed the same order as the computer had going into this week (meaning Week 10). You can go to the ratings page or just determine what last week’s list looked like with the “previous” column below.

Hopefully the rest of the season and next year will be back to normal. I don’t usually have two full vacations during football season, but they were both a long time in the making. Even though the “15 days to flatten the curve” was nearly 20 months ago, I’m also still feeling a domino effect from that in both personal and work schedules.

Week 10

Moving onto the current week, I know Alabama jumped what might seem like an inordinate number of spots for beating (not very impressively) LSU, but the Tigers are better than Indiana (Michigan’s opponent), Nebraska (Ohio St.’s opponent), and Tulane (Cincinnati’s opponent). Michigan St. and Wake Forest both lost, so that accounts for all 5 spots. With the amount of data we now have as far as wins and losses, how impressive a game was on the field or in the final score doesn’t really matter at this point.

It also helps Alabama that Texas A&M has played well since their meeting with the Tide. The Aggies had another one of the more significant gains after beating Auburn, another team LSU finished one score behind, by the way.

Although Navy isn’t a great opponent either, Notre Dame was a solid enough #2 despite the loss to Cincinnati earlier in the season. I didn’t think it made sense to unconditionally keep Cincinnati ahead based on that one game. It also doesn’t help Cincinnati that Indiana just keeps losing. That was their other big foray into major competition. Nonetheless, I did move the Bearcats up two spots from the computer list to keep them at #5. I suspect that we will see other teams like Alabama pass up both the Irish and the Bearcats anyway.

I also moved up Oklahoma from the computer list. The Sooners had lost a few spots due to the bye week. They have two potentially big opponents for points left though, Baylor and Oklahoma St. I would think that they are likely to beat Baylor, but I wouldn’t bet a house on it.

Usually at this point of the season, I don’t make any changes after the top 10, but I did make an exception at #25. If North Carolina St. is able to beat Wake Forest, they’ll be in easily next week. If not, I don’t like for a team to join the top 25 for the first time just to fall out right away for losing to a higher-rated team.

The Wolfpack are overrated in most rankings because they beat an overrated Clemson team back in September. Clemson plays Wake Forest in two weeks, so we will also see what they and the Demon Deacons are really made of. I think it’s safe to say Clemson isn’t really one of the top 10 teams regardless though (they were ranked #9 before the NC St. game).

Although I did complete the Week 9 computer ratings Friday night and the Week 10 ratings Sunday morning, this blog was delayed because I noticed I had a discrepancies with the records. If you’re interested in the technicalities, I’ll elaborate. If not, feel free to skip to the top 25.

Corrections

The only affected team in or close to any computer top 25s was Oklahoma St., but with the way the formula works, they were affected the least. The week they beat Missouri St., it essentially went down as beating a winless FBS team instead (except without hurting the strength of schedule). Since Missouri St. has six wins within the FCS, they count for more than a winless FBS opponent. The Cowboys gained two spots with the change, but I still preferred to put Michigan and Cincinnati ahead below.

Something similar happened with the Wyoming Cowboys. I had to start with A (Air Force) and go all the way down the alphabet to find that mistake. The good news is I was forced to double check every schedule. I did not double check each of the 600+ games that were played to make sure the right opponent was entered (each team has a number designation and on rare occasions I’ll enter the wrong number), but there is an entry for each win and loss. Since there weren’t any positives to counteract the lost win, those Cowboys lost two spots instead.

So this meant there were two teams with extra losses, Florida St. and Tulane. These were affected more dramatically, but thankfully it was two teams that were not even in the top 95, not to mention the top 25. If I give a team an extra loss but don’t set up my spreadsheet for that loss, it results in a disproportionately large number being subtracted.

Notre Dame played Florida St., and both Cincinnati and Oklahoma have played Tulane, so those three have benefited most from these adjustments among teams that I would say are competing for the Playoff. Notre Dame and Cincinnati benefited even more from the increase in opponents’ opponents’ quality.

I think what happened in Tulane’s case was that I lost track of losses because there were so many. Also, I didn’t catch the missing bye week because the Green Wave had played two games on Thursdays (one before and one after the bye). Tulane went up 9 spots to #116.

In Florida St.’s case, I think I accidentally counted the loss to Jacksonville St. twice. Normally an FCS opponent gets put in a separate category, but not when it’s a loss. Maybe the Seminoles deserved two losses for that game anyway. With the correction, Florida St. went up 17 spots to #98.

Final Notes and Week 10 Top 25

Anyway, since all of that is now sorted out and I don’t have any major time constraints, I might see how the weighted ratings look next week. These give teams extra credit for performance against very good opponents. I think they bring my ratings closer to what the Playoff committee looks at.

I don’t like to look at that before this time of year because the top teams are still too volatile (for instance, I’m glad I didn’t give a team a ton of credit for having played Michigan St. or Wake Forest in the Week 9 ratings).

Rank/Team/Last

1	Georgia	1
2	Notre Dame	6
3	Alabama	8
4	Michigan	4
5	Cincinnati	5
6	Oklahoma St.	10
7	Ohio St.	7
8	B. Young	11
9	Texas A&M	19
10	Oklahoma	9
11	Wisconsin	16
12	Wake Forest	3
13	Michigan St.	2
14	TX-San Antonio	17
15	Oregon	14
16	Iowa	13
17	Ole Miss	21
18	San Diego St.	20
19	Baylor	12
20	Purdue	—
21	Penn St.	—
22	UL-Lafayette	—
23	Auburn	15
24	Boise St.	—
25	Pittsburgh	—

Out of rankings: (18) Kentucky, (22) Air Force, (23) Fresno St., (24) Minnesota, (25) Appalachian St.

2021 Week 5 Top 25

rank team last
1 Alabama 1
2 Georgia 2
3 Penn St. 4
4 Cincinnati 7
5 Iowa 8
6 Ohio St. 6
7 Oregon 3
8 Oklahoma St. 14
9 B. Young 9
10 Coastal Car. 10
11 Arkansas 11
12 Oklahoma 12
13 Notre Dame 13
14 Michigan 17
15 Texas 15
16 Ole Miss 16
17 Michigan St. 18
18 Kentucky —
19 Florida 5
20 Arizona St. —
21 Auburn —
22 San Diego St. 25
23 Wake Forest —
24 Texas Tech —
25 W. Michigan —

Out of rankings: (19) Texas A&M, (20) Baylor, (21) Fresno St., (22) Louisville, (23) C. Florida, (24) UCLA

I don’t really have time to elaborate. I will try to get my computer rankings online this weekend, so I want to allow as much time as possible to work on those. Usually I have them started earlier, but it’s been hard to get back into the habit of things this year.

I had a general rule of no 2-loss teams; but I had to make an exception with Florida, who had two close losses, both to currently undefeated teams (including by 2 points to Alabama, my #1).

Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez, Jr., scored what turned out to be the winning points in the fourth quarter in Lexington on Saturday. It was the Wildcats’ first home win over the Gators since 1986.