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Posts Tagged ‘Western Kentucky’

SEC Wednesday #4: Recap and Predictions

In College Football, General LSU, Post-game, Preview, SEC Wednesdays on September 21, 2016 at 8:37 PM

I know this is late, but it’s SEC Wednesday, not Thursday. For reference, here is the previous edition.

Finally doing this on an actual Wednesday.

Finally doing this on an actual Wednesday.

Two of the games were looking really good factoring in the spread, but as I mentioned previously, LSU had a late fourth-down conversion that was controversially reversed on replay. This led to a Mississippi St. touchdown, which led to an on-sides kick for 30 yards, which led to another touchdown. The other Mississippi team did something similar with scoring after an on-sides kick to beat the spread as well. So without that I’m .500 against the spread, which is where you want to be. A lot of these bets are not ones I would actually take. Maybe I should try just doing a selection of them if this doesn’t turn around.

I did get a little lucky on one when Kentucky decided to play defense in the fourth quarter against New Mexico St. The Wildcats only beat the spread by half a point.

I got Tennessee right. I thought they were going to have a bit of a letdown against Ohio U. after the strong win over Virginia Tech, and that looks like exactly what happened.

Otherwise, the only one I got right was Florida. North Texas can’t do much against SEC defenses, but I guess their defense can do all right (at least if all right means giving up fewer points than the entire spread is). The Mean Green has been outscored 56-0 over the last two games against the SEC though. North Texas has been shut out 3 times since 2011, all at the hands of SEC opponents.

Auburn haunted me last year and tripped me up last week.  I hope they take a day off.

Auburn haunted me last year and tripped me up last week. I hope they take a day off.

I still can’t make much sense of Auburn. Other than the two fluke good seasons (and if I recall correctly even those were not easily predictable against the spread), they’re consistently inconsistent. John Chavis (now at Texas A&M) won the battle of former LSU defensive coordinators, but next week current LSU DC Dave Aranda gets a crack at his immediate predecessor on the Plains. He’s had an interesting September.

Another former LSU coordinator is head coach at South Carolina now, and I was surprised they managed to beat East Carolina. I guess the Gamecocks have done pretty well against other teams from the Carolinas in recent years. It’s nice when an SEC team who hasn’t been doing very well in conference can win a game like that, but it’s even nicer when you see it coming.

The only game I didn’t touch on was Arkansas against Texas St. Like I said last week, it’s hard to predict when a blowout is coming. They could have just as easily had a close game against Texas St. and won easily over Louisiana Tech.

I was 8-2 in picking winners but only 3-7 against the sprea. So now I’m 30-5 in picking winners and 14-15 against the spread for the season.

I was initially unsure what to do with Alabama against Kent St. since I think they’re overdue for a solid game in all aspects.  It is Nick Saban’s alma mater. I wonder if that might allow him to take the foot off the gas in the second half. I’m not a fan of his, but he had a very humanizing moment this week in talking about the Kent St. shooting in 1970 that left four students dead. He wasn’t present at the scene, but he was on campus around that time. The Golden Flashes lost to a really bad team in Week 2 but had respectable showing against Penn St. in Week 1. Maybe they get up for the challenge. 44 points is a lot, so I’ll take Kent St. Alabama to win obviously.

Ole Miss is favored by 7 over Georgia in an intriguing inter-divisional matchup. Georgia has been disappointing, but they like to play close games. I don’t expect Ole Miss will be very well-rested and energetic after Saturday, so against my first inclination, I’ll take the Bulldogs and the points. Ole Miss to win though. Kirby can only dodge so many bullets, right?

I almost feel sorry for Tennessee fans and their struggles with Florida. If not now, when? But that’s what I said about LSU-Alabama and Florida-Kentucky in the last couple of years. I think Tennessee will benefit from having played a tough opponent already, and I think the crowd will be in full force (it was lackluster most of the time in the first two home games), so I think they will defeat the curse this time. I have to take the points though. I’m almost always for Tennessee in this rivalry, but part of me hopes Tennessee loses just to diffuse the hype and perhaps allow them to sneak up on Alabama. Also, it would look much better for LSU to beat Florida if Florida wins this game.

Mississippi St. @ UMass. Do I look back at South Alabama or will State do what Arkansas did and have a completely different non-conference personality for this one? UMass has played surprisingly well this season. If they only lost by 17 at the Swamp, I struggle to see them losing by 22+ at home. The Bulldog backup QB did well last week, but it usually takes a little luster off when the defense prepares for you.

Missouri is a weird team, but I don’t do point spreads for FCS games. I pick Mizzou to win.

Vandy played Western Kentucky really close last year only losing by 2 at the end. I think they’re at least marginally better this year even though they were terrible against Georgia Tech last week. The ’Dores beat Middle Tennessee by 23. I don’t think the Blue Raiders and Hilltoppers are that far apart. I will pick the Hilltoppers to win since they’re at home though.

3.5 isn’t enough to try to split the difference with LSU. I can’t even countenance LSU losing the game right now, although I never expect an easy time @Auburn. This is Danny Etling’s first road SEC start, but he had several starts in hostile environments when he was at Purdue and doesn’t seem very easily shaken. It was Brandon Harris’s first start period two years ago.

This was the only picture I could find of Danny Etling during his last road start.

This was the only picture I could find of Danny Etling during his last start outside of his home stadium.

That was the only convincing loss by LSU in the series since 2002 (rivalry series blog). LSU lost two controversial games, 10-9 in 2004 and 7-3 in 2006. Then Cam Newton was just a little too good in 2010. Those were vastly different Auburn teams though. So my guess is the game two years ago was an aberration and LSU can do well this time. The Fighting Tigers dominated at home last year.

Kentucky is favored by 2 somehow. I don’t see it. Gamecocks +2 all day long. Sometimes there is some unique bookie insight I’m not privy to, but I’d rather risk suffering in ignorance than outsmart myself out of a win.

The night game is Arkansas @ Texas A&M. The Aggies are coming off a decent win on the Plains, but the Hogs usually play them close and then had a bit of a breather last week. Arkansas with the points but the Aggies to win. I still expect the Aggies to lose a few this year, but not this one. The game went to overtime each of the last two years with A&M winning both. If that happens again, hopefully they only win by 3. I hate when you take a team with the points, they tie over 60 minutes, and then you get screwed in overtime.

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2015 Final Top 25 and Comments

In Bowls, College Football, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on January 14, 2016 at 6:19 PM

I wanted to get this out of the way first. College football always comes first here. I will post my reaction to the Los Angeles NFL drams that I first covered here.

People are sometimes confused with my rankings after the bowl games. The way I do it is to count the bowls as just another game. So the fact that Iowa, for instance, looked mediocre and Florida looked like a JV team didn’t knock Iowa out of the top 10 or Florida out of the top 25.

I want to congratulate Appalachian St. for making my top 25, although I do think they would lose to more than 25 teams on a neutral field. Why are they so high anyway? I want such a team to be able to move up with a collection of wins. Imagine we had a 16-team tournament and they were included with the teams as the Sun Belt champions (they weren’t, but Arkansas St. lost two more games, so bear with me).

A win over a team like Alabama or Clemson counts as about 2/10 of a point. So one such win would only get 11-2 Appalachian St. to #14, two would get them to #8, three would get them to #6. and four would get them to #3. I think that’s reasonable. Any team they beat would lose points, so some of those would be one or two spots higher, but I don’t think there is anything wrong with a team that only had two losses potentially being #1 (or at least close to #1) if you imagine them beating four of the top teams.

Chad Kelly helped Ole Miss get the most valuable win of the year (0.23 in my system).

Chad Kelly helped Ole Miss get the most valuable win of the year (0.23 in my system).

IF I use a basketball example, someone who makes the NCAA basketball Final Four has won at least four games in the tournament, usually at least three of them against top 25 teams or comparable. In the poll after the 2012-13 season, Wichita St. jumped 22 spots after making the Final Four and narrowly losing to eventual champions Louisville. Appalachian St. was 27th in my rankings before the bowls this season (not that far from where Wichita St. was before that tournament), so if there were a post-season tournament comparable to basketball, I think my projected final rankings would make sense.

I also don’t think it goes too far the other direction and ignores schedule differences. Alabama only lost one fewer game and is 1.3 points and 20 spots ahead. If you subtract 1.3 points from Appalachian St., that would give them a number of points comparable to Maryland, which finished 3-9 against a good schedule. So I think right in between Alabama and Maryland if the Mountaineers had played in a major conference is a fair assessment.

It just so happens there are a lot fewer teams on the Alabama side of Appalachian St. than on the Maryland side. All the 8-5 and 7-6 teams in major conferences are between Maryland and Appalachian St. There are a lot more of them than there are 12-1 and 11-2 teams.

Moving on to other teams… Alabama was a clearer #1 this year than Ohio St. last year, but the Tide’s loss wasn’t as bad and it had a better schedule. I expect teams in the championship game to be comfortably #1 and #2 with the way the playoff system works. Any win is more points even if you played more games than other teams. That used to anger Pac-12 and Big Ten fans when they didn’t have conference championship games, by the way. I think teams deserve credit every time they risk a loss, so I’m not changing that policy.

I like that Michigan St. stayed #3 when their post-season loss was to Alabama, they beat Ohio St., and (unlike Ohio St.) also beat Iowa, the Big Ten runners-up. Had they not played Iowa, I would have been fine with Ohio St. passing them up.

Speaking of Iowa, Stanford, the team who beat them in the Rose Bowl, moved up to fifth. Both Ohio St. and Stanford moved ahead of Oklahoma, who lost to Clemson in the semifinal. Since the final regularly-scheduled game (a win over Oklahoma St.), Oklahoma is 0-1, Stanford is 2-0, and Ohio St. is 1-0; so I don’t think that’s unfair. I felt the Sooners rightly stayed ahead of Houston, Iowa, Ole Miss, and TCU.

LSU would be in the top 10 if I averaged by week and likely would be had they played McNeese St., but if you consider that two of the three losses were to top 10 teams (Alabama and Ole Miss), 9-1 against the rest is pretty good.

One of the wins was over Western Kentucky, who finished 12-2 and #12. The Hilltoppers’ only other loss was to Indiana, a bowl team from the Big Ten. It wasn’t a good bowl, but Texas wasn’t in any bowl and they beat Oklahoma (for instance), so I don’t think that should be fatal.

Michigan started out six spots below Florida and ended up five spots ahead, so I think that’s a reasonable shift for one game. I don’t see anything controversial about Notre Dame, Northwester, Navy, or Utah.

I admitted that Arkansas’ loss to Toledo was one of the negatives of the conference’s non-conference campaign, but the Rockets finished 10-2 (they had a canceled game like LSU did), so nothing to be too embarrassed about. They beat one of the best G5 teams in Temple in the bowl game.

The other bad SEC loss (by a good SEC team anyway) was Ole Miss’ loss to Memphis, but Memphis might be ranked had they not lost to another SEC team Auburn in the bowl game. I’ll discuss conference results more in the next college football blog probably early next week.

Oklahoma St. stayed in the top 20 despite three losses in a row to end the season, so it’s not some special SEC privilege, although rightly the Gators stayed ahead of the Cowboys. Florida played the best three SEC West teams by overall record.

Mississippi St. and Georgia also benefited by the improvement to their opponents combined with bowl wins of their own.

The Big XII didn’t have the best time of the bowls, but Baylor’s bowl win over North Carolina was strong enough on its own to put them back in the top 25.

The same could be said of the Big Ten West and Wisconsin.

Top 25

1 Alabama 1
2 Clemson 2
3 Mich. St. 3
4 Ohio St. 5
5 Stanford 7
6 Oklahoma 4
7 Houston 8
8 Iowa 6
9 Ole Miss 13
10 TCU 14
11 LSU 16
12 WKU 15
13 Michigan 17
14 Notre Dame 9
15 N’western 10
16 Navy 18
17 Utah 21
18 Florida 11
19 Toledo 23
20 Okie St. 12
21 Appy St. —
appalachian st
22 Miss. St. —
23 Baylor —
24 Georgia —
25 Wisconsin —

Here are the previous rankings blogs:

Preseason

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Week 10

Week 11

Week 12

Pre-Bowl

2015 Pre-Bowl Rankings

In Bowls, College Football, Preview, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on December 13, 2015 at 6:46 PM

Top 25

Rank Team Previous

1 Alabama 1
2 Clemson 2
3 Mich. St. 3
4 Oklahoma 5
5 Ohio St. 6
6 Iowa 4
7 Stanford 7
8 Houston 11
9 Notre Dame 8
10 N’western 10
11 Florida 9
12 Okie St. 12
13 Ole Miss 13
14 TCU 14
15 WKU 23
16 LSU 16
17 Michigan 17
18 Navy 19
19 Oregon 18
20 N. Carolina 15
21 Utah 21
22 Florida St. 24
23 Toledo 25
24 Memphis —
25 Temple 20

Full list of 128 teams

Out of rankings: (22) Baylor

RANK CFP 2014 KNT 2014 CFP 2015 KNT 2015
#1 Alabama Florida St. Clemson Alabama
#2 Oregon Alabama Alabama Clemson
#3 Florida St. Ohio St. Michigan St. Michigan St.
#4 Ohio St. Oregon Oklahoma Oklahoma

I’m 2/2 in agreeing with the CFP committee on the top 4 even though I disagreed with the order again. Even though I didn’t do a rankings blog last week, the top 4 wasn’t changed by Army/Navy. I agree with Michigan St. being ahead of Oklahoma, but I don’t agree with Clemson being ahead of Alabama. I think the Tide just played too many top-40 teams not to be ahead.

Last January, my #3 (also of the Big Ten) beat my #4 for the CFP national championship.

Last January, my #3 (also of the Big Ten) beat my #4 for the CFP national championship.

Last blog I mentioned how I felt about Florida, but not surprisingly, they ended the season too badly for an “NY6” bowl (meaning one of the bowls that the committee selects even though the semifinal bowls are actually on New Year’s Eve).

I can’t hate on the committee too much though, because they’re not that far away from me. The rules forced them to put Houston in one of the NY6 bowls, but still, my first 9 teams all made the major bowls.

Florida St. made it in (I guess) because they lost to the committee-s #1 and only one other. Two of the top 4 also have losses to losing teams, so I guess they thought it made sense not to penalize that. The difference is Florida St. only had one good win, which was Florida at the end of the year. The whole reason Florida isn’t in an NY6 bowl is that “Florida at the end of the year” hasn’t been very good, but you can’t expect every team to make perfect sense.

LSU, another team that didn’t finish well, ends up behind two teams it beat, but Western Kentucky won three more games than LSU did despite only one fewer loss. Florida also played a couple more games. LSU’s average score per playing week is still better than both Western Kentucky and Florida.

Ole Miss and Oklahoma St. were mostly deserving even though they finished behind Florida and Northwestern. I would have liked to have seen Florida play Northwestern, but that would have made the Citrus Bowl less money. To be fair, Michigan did beat Northwestern fairly easily and also had the freak loss to Michigan St. The Wolverines probably did play better overall than the Wildcats did. With my system, if the rules say you won, you won. Apart from one minor situation (home team winning by a field goal or less or in overtime), there isn’t even a slight change to the point value you gain or lose.

The main difficulty I had in producing the formula I use was balancing record with strength of schedule. I could value strength of schedule higher, and then teams like Houston and Western Kentucky would be lower. The reason I haven’t changed it is it should be very difficult for someone to be ranked ahead of a team like Clemson, an undefeated major-conference team. They’re only 0.01 ahead of Michigan St. So if I valued record just a little bit less, Western Kentucky or Houston might fall a spot, but so would Clemson.

I’d rather focus on getting the right teams at the top than giving three- and four-loss teams more representation in the top 10 or top 25 even though they would likely beat some of the teams with one or two losses.

Week 13 Rankings & SEC Bowl Outlook

In Bowls, College Football, General LSU, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on November 30, 2015 at 8:04 PM

Top 25

Rank Team Previous

1 Alabama 1
2 Clemson 2
3 Mich. St. 3
4 Iowa 4
5 Oklahoma 7
6 Ohio St. 8
7 Stanford 11
8 Notre Dame 5
9 Florida 6
10 Northwestern 12
11 Houston 21
12 Okie St. 9
13 Ole Miss 17
14 TCU 24
15 N. Carolina 16
16 LSU 22
17 Michigan 10
18 Oregon 19
19 Navy 13
20 Temple 23
21 Utah 18
22 Baylor 14
23 W. Kentucky —
image
24 Florida St. —
25 Toledo 15

Full list of 128 teams

Out of rankings: (20) Mississippi St., (25) UCLA

Seems pretty simple to me if UNC and Florida don’t pull upsets. Oklahoma isn’t currently in the top 4, but they will pass up the loser of the Big Ten championship game. If Michigan St. wins, we could have two teams trying to emulate 2014 Ohio St. with ugly losses but wins over all the good teams on the schedule.

Speaking of Ohio St., they would be next in line right now; but the way my rankings work, it doesn’t help you not to play, so Standford could move ahead. Likewise, the committee is supposed to favor a conference champion over a team that didn’t win its division. They also seem to pay less attention to record than the polls have in recent years.

Houston against Temple for the AAC championship should be a good game. I’m glad that the G5 representative will really have to earn it this season.

As for bowl games, I’ve seen LSU everywhere from the citrus bowl to the TaxSlayer (Gator) Bowl.

I’m guessing an Alabama win in the SEC championship will put Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl over Florida even though the Gators beat the Rebels. Each would finish with three losses; but Ole Miss has looked a lot better, and it’s usually not good to lose two in a row. The Rebels were a 4th-and-25 stop against Arkansas away from making the SEC title game.

Arkansas has three conference losses and they beat LSU, but the Hogs lost two games out of conference.

Tennessee and Georgia also have three conference losses apiece. The Vols have the benefit of five straight wins and the non-conference loss to Oklahoma is looking pretty understandable right now.

It will be very interesting to see how this mess is sorted out. It’s basically the two respective divisional champions, Ole Miss, and a big cluster afterward. Auburn will apparently get the worst SEC bowl, which seems to be the Birmingham Bowl. Edit: The NCAA is considering allowing 5-7 teams to play bowl games. Missouri has already announced it will not pursue such an invitation. Kentucky may.

Mississippi St. and Texas A&M have four conference losses; but unlike others, they do not have non-conference losses.

Here are the previous rankings blogs:

Preseason

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Week 7

Week 8

Week 9

Week 10

Week 11

Week 12

SEC Wednesday #7

In College Football, SEC Wednesdays on November 11, 2015 at 1:04 PM

Last Week

A little earlier than usual today thanks to Veterans Day.

I was right about Missouri thankfully. Maybe they were distracted with their pending protest over nothing; but along with Kentucky, they don’t seem very focused on football at this point.

Dak Prescott had a successful game despite the rain in Columbia but will have a different challenge when the Bulldogs host the Tide.

Dak Prescott had a successful game despite the rain in Columbia but will have a different challenge when the Bulldogs host the Tide.

I was also right about Kentucky going downhill worse than Georgia.

Florida was a miserable failure in the point spread department, but at least the Gators won. I don’t know how you beat Ole Miss by 14 times the amount you beat Vandy, but that’s college football.

Speaking of Ole Miss, I was wrong about the winner (so close); but at least in this overtime game, I was right about the point spread. Ole Miss would have struggled to win by more than 10 in overtime anyway.

South Carolina lost but obliterated the point spread again. LSU and Georgia were the only two teams all season to beat them by more than two touchdowns, but other teams keep being favored by between 15 and 20. Of course, the former point might change with Florida and Clemson coming up.

I was still wrong both ways with LSU-Alabama of course.

Finally, Auburn still haunts me. It’s like they read this to decide whether they’re going to try this week or not.

I was over .500 in both categories for the week, but 4-3 in picking winners isn’t very good.

My overall record falls to 36-14, but my record against the spread improves to 20-27.

SEC WED

Next Week

I’ll take Arkansas and the points, but I think LSU will redeem itself slightly at home and manage to win.

Georgia fans should be happy to know I will be picking Auburn to win and -1.5.

I’ll take South Carolina and 8 at home but Florida to win. The Georgia and LSU games I mentioned were not played in South Carolina (theoretically LSU was a home game). I think Florida may be having some problems that will carry over. This is the Gators’ SEC finale, and Florida has already clinched the East, so the motivation may be lower than usual.

I’ll pick North Texas +41.5. The Vols did beat Western Carolina by more, but the Mean Green does have an offense even though I realize they’re REALLY not a good team. I think it may go something along the lines of the LSU/Eastern Michigan game. Western Kentucky, probably the most similar team that has faced North Texas, won 55-28. Tennessee may hold them to 17 or 20 or something like that but probably won’t score more than the Hilltoppers did. Of course I don’t think it’s much of a question of the winner.

I’ll take Mississippi St. +8. The last game the Tide played that wasn’t after a bye resulted in a close final score against that Volunteer team I mentioned. Mississippi St. hasn’t faced stellar competition, but the Bulldogs seem to be firing on all cylinders. I think they’ll get up for the game better. Starkville can be a weirdly difficult place to play if you don’t take control early.

Kentucky has played so badly Vanderbilt is actually favored and deservedly so. I’ll even give the Wildcats the three points.

Usually there isn’t a line for FCS games, but I’ll play along. A&M is favored by 35.5, probably due to scant point-scoring recently. I think they’ll wake up at least for this game though, so I’ll take them minus the points.

I shy away from road favorites and from picking other teams to win in SEC stadiums, but I’ll make an exception for BYU at Missouri. The Cougars do have a common opponent with the Tigers, and that was Connecticut. BYU played terribly in that game and still won by 17, whereas Missouri only beat the Huskies by 3. Those games were very early in the season admittedly, but I also mentioned that the Tigers haven’t come across as very competitive in their last few games.

Previous entries

Week 4 Preview (predictions only)

SEC Wednesday #1

SEC Wednesday #2

SEC Wednesday #3

SEC Wednesday #4

SEC Wednesday #5

SEC Wednesday #6

Week 8 Rankings and Comments

In College Football, General LSU, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on October 26, 2015 at 7:13 PM

Full list #1-128

I’ll keep it brief today since I have a lot less time with more limited technology at the moment.

WKU didn’t have the best schedule coming in despite the good record, so LSU’s points from that were not enough to keep the Tigers alread of Sparty in the computers.  Of course Utah dropped themselves by losing.

Leonard Fournette finds an opening in a wet Tiger Stadium Saturday.

Leonard Fournette finds an opening in a wet Tiger Stadium Saturday.

I kept LSU #1 in this list because (1) I’m fairly confident that IF the Tigers beat the Tide, they will have more points, and (2) LSU does have the most points per week.

Had the Tigers played the opener and won, they would be #1 in the computer list.  Also, I think LSU going undefeated before the championship would put them ahead of Michigan St.  Ohio St. may actually be the team in the best position if they win out since the Buckeyes will get a high amount of points from playing both B1G Michigan schools.  For LSU, it is unclear whether Ole Miss and A&M would be wins that are so great after all, and I suspect Florida will not win out in the East.

I’m not saying I predict LSU to win the rest of its games, I’m just talking about why I think waiting to change the #1 is appropriate.  I am also glad I waited before putting Utah in that spot.

Ohio St. and Sparty also have bye weeks coming up, so I don’t know think either will lose to make it easier on me.

Iowa could temporarily take advantage in the computer, but that’s another reason to keep LSU as the placeholder until there is some clarity, even if in the end a Big Ten team ends up on top.  I would have kept it Ohio St. if the Buckeyes were a little closer to actual #1.

The rest proceeds pretty logically from the results.  Don’t forget teams lose ground for byes and sometimes forvictories over winless or low-value opponents.  As mentioned last week, Baylor has yet to play anyone of note, I don’t care how many first place votes they get.

There isn’t a big difference between Miami, which Clemson beat, and Tennessee, which Alabama beat, but numbers 5 to 8 are very close together.

As is my custom, I put a version of a Mississippi St. logo, as I do for everyone’s first appearance of the season (at least after the initial list).

1 LSU 1

2 Mich. St. 3

3 Ohio St. 5

4 Iowa 4

5 Clemson 9

6 Utah 2

7 Alabama 8

8 Memphis 11

9 TCU 7

10 Florida 6

11 Temple 14

12 Notre Dame 13

13 Okie St. 12

14 Stanford 19

15 Baylor 15

16 Toledo 16

17 Oklahoma 23

18 N’western 22

19 Miss. St. —

miss st

20 Houston 24

21 Michigan 20

22 Ole Miss —

23 TX A&M 18

24 UCLA —

25 Pittsburgh 25

Out of rankings:

10 Florida St.

17 UC-Berkeley

21 BYU

SEC Wednesday #4 and LSU Midweek

In College Football, General LSU, Post-game, Preview, Rivalry, SEC Wednesdays on October 21, 2015 at 7:03 PM

Last Week

Some weeks, I feel like I should have just flipped a coin for all the games. This was one of them.  Previous weeks convinced me not to pick Auburn, Mississippi St., or South Carolina against the spread.  All three have been huge disappointments against the spread on multiple occasions, so I finally got the tipping point where I didn’t want to pick them anymore.  So of course they all decided to play well.  If I had known nothing about what happened earlier this season, I might have picked all three.

Texas A&M, on the other hand, convinced me to pick them and the points over Alabama.  I thought they would at least be in the game in the fourth quarter at home.  Maybe Alabama is just going to have a new tradition of losing to Ole Miss and then stomping everyone else, although I’m not quite sure why the Tide didn’t win by more against AR-Kansas if that is the case.

SEC WED

Speaking of Ole Miss, unlike last year, it’s like the season ended for them immediately after the Alabama game.  It’s like they didn’t even show up against Florida, and then I guess they thought since it was Memphis, it didn’t matter that it was a road game against a bunch of players who get less respect than Rodney Dangerfield did and wanted to take it out on an SEC opponent.  I thought the Rebels would just barely beat the line, but they were about four touchdowns away from doing so.

LSU-Florida and Georgia-Missouri were the two bright spots that went exactly as I anticipated.  Wins by the favorites but within the spread.  I mentioned that I was wrong about five of them against the spread.

I did pick Mississippi St. and Alabama to win, so at least both of those happened.  This at least gave me a winning record (4-3) for the week in picking the winners.

My overall records fall to 22-9 “straight up” and 13-16 against the spread.

Upcoming Week

I will discuss LSU at the end because I don’t want to bury my coverage of other teams.

Arkansas is favored by six at home against Auburn even though their only home win is over UTEP.  I’ll pick the Hogs to win since as mentioned they did all right with Alabama and are coming off a bye week.  However, I’ll hope it’s a small margin since I’ll take Auburn and the points.  The plains Tigers won at Kentucky by three, so losing at Arkansas by a slim margin seems fairly consistent with that.

As mentioned earlier, Alabama didn’t win by that much against Arkansas at home (13 points).  So I’ll take Tennessee and the 15.5 even though the game will be in Tuscaloosa.  Arkansas did beat Tennessee, but I think that will be viewed as an upset at the end of the year. This is still enough of a rivalry that it may be close.  Alabama to win.

Vanderbilt lost to South Carolina by nine last week, and Missouri lost to Georgia by three.  I’m thinking Missouri can win by more than 2.5 even though the game is in Nashville.  It may be another baseball score though. (Earlier in the year, Mizzou beat Connecticut by the same score it just lost to Georgia, 9-6.)

I have absolutely no idea which Rebel and Aggie teams will show up in Oxford. I’ll do the same thing I did with Arkansas-Auburn and pick the favorite (Ole Miss) to win by fewer than 6 points.

Kentucky narrowly beat such luminaries as ULL and Eastern Kentucky.  The four-point win over South Carolina has lost a bit of its lustre too.  However, the Wildcats kept the Gators close and beat Missouri by 8.  What convinced me to take them in the points is the fact that I think Mississippi St. is a good enough team that Kentucky will step up its play enough to make it close.  I have no reason to believe Kentucky is worse than last year, and Mississippi St. is a fair bit away from how good they were last year. The Bulldogs only won by 14 last year, so I’ll take Kentucky and the 11.5 with State to win.

LSU Midweek Comments and Projection

Inspired by Les Miles, I’m going to take a huge gamble and pick LSU to actually beat the spread of 17 this week. Western Kentucky seemed a bit distracted by the crowd in NASHVILLE. Even a substandard crowd in Baton Rouge would probably be intimidated by comparison.  I don’t know if it will be though.  It will be at night, the weather should be in the 70s, and LSU does not return home until November 14 against Arkansas, one of only two remaining home games after this one.

The Hilltoppers have the ability to hang in there if LSU does stupid things like fumble a punt in the first few minutes and allow a kick-return TD, both of which the Tigers did against Florida.  However, I don’t think the talent and preparation for the environment will the the same, so even if there are some LSU mistakes, WKU may not take advantage as well.

If LSU managed to run away with it on Will Muschamp’s Auburn defense (which isn’t good statistically but still held Mississippi St. to 17, for instance), I can see the same thing playing out against Western Kentucky’s defense, which gave up 38 to both Indiana and Louisiana Tech.  Last week, WKU gave up 28 points to North Texas, one of the worst FBS teams.  The Mean Green scored 14 in the first half, so they weren’t all window dressing after the game was decided either.  That was UNT’s highest point total for the season and came just a week after a 66-7 loss to Portland St.

Trent Domingue himself actually brought this picture with the unhappy mascots to my attention when he mentioned it in an interview.

Anyway, while I’m talking about LSU I wanted to mention a couple of things about the Florida series I forgot about previously.  This is only the second time LSU has won three home games in a row against the Gators.  The previous time was three games spread out over 18 seasons ending in 1957.  This was also the third time and first since 1982 that LSU has won five times in six contests against the Gators.

Also, since 2007, LSU is 12 for 16 on fourth downs against the Gators with at least four successful fakes, three of them fake field goals.  LSU has converted its last six fourth-down-conversion attempts against Florida.

Also significant to me was the fact Florida no longer leads the series in Baton Rouge.  Tennessee (which never played LSU very often) and Alabama are the only two SEC programs with more wins than losses in Baton Rouge.

Previous entries

Week 4 Preview (predictions only)

SEC Wednesdays #1

SEC Wednesdays #2

SEC Wednesdays #3

Week 7 Rankings with LSU Comments

In College Football, General LSU, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on October 18, 2015 at 4:09 PM

Blog updates/LSU

I decided to delay my response to “30 for 30: Trojan Horse” until the end of the week, because I won’t have much to talk about then.

There isn’t enough with Western Kentucky worth talking about for a full blog. The Hilltoppers played close games at Vanderbilt (which they won) and at Indiana (the only team to beat them).  LSU’s secondary may be stretched again as WKU has a good passing game with two wide receivers who have at least 25 receptions AND average over 18 yards per reception as well as a number of other targets.  The rushing game has been spotty, but it has improved in the last couple of weeks with the introduction of Anthony Wales, who gained over 300 yards combined in the two games.

On the other hand, the defense should allow LSU to keep up the offensive output from yesterday.  Although there were a few games with low scores by opponents, Louisiana Tech and Indiana each scored 38 against the Hilltoppers last month.  In the last two games, Middle Tennessee and North Texas each scored 28.

I updated my two LSU-Florida blogs, the one I did last week that focuses on the last 15 years and the full rivalry blog that covers the entirety of the series.  Apart from “SEC Wednesday”, that’s all I have specifically about LSU this week unless something unusual happens.

Trent Dominque (who just recently earned a scholarship) became the second LSU kicker in five years with one of the key plays in an LSU-Florida game. In Dominque's case, he scored the winning touchdown himself.

Trent Dominque (who just recently earned a scholarship) became the second LSU kicker in five years with one of the key running plays in an LSU-Florida game. In Dominque’s case, he scored the winning touchdown himself.

Rankings

Before I get to the top 25 list, here is the 100% objective full list of 128 teams.

I guess there is one more thing.  I have moved my Tigers to #1.  Florida exposed some weaknesses and LSU was in some ways fortunate to win; but that’s true of anyone who has played another ranked team this season, except that a number of them had more trouble with lesser teams.

Baylor hasn’t played any close games, so they’re the popular pick right now, but give me a break.  Their best win is over Texas Tech, who is well into the “others receiving votes” category in both polls.  The Red Raiders’ best win is over Arkansas, who has also lost to undefeated Toledo and a couple of otherwise-defeated SEC opponents.  So if beating the team that beat Arkansas makes an undefeated team #2, why doesn’t beating Arkansas directly make Toledo #1?

I’m not saying it’s impossible that Baylor easily beats everyone all the way until mid-January, but I just don’t think they’ve proven much yet.  If they’re undefeated after playing Oklahoma, @TCU, and @Oklahoma St. within 13 days in November, then I think it’s a very different conversation.

I mentioned last week that it was possible that I would follow the computer ratings top 25 exactly, but I’ve made only two switches.  I switched LSU with Utah for #1, and I switched Florida St. with Memphis for #10.  I just think #10 is too big of a jump at this point.  Memphis has a couple of weeks coming up where they will earn only a few points (assuming wins), so it is likely that they will not stay in the top 10 anyway.  However, this is the last adjustment apart from the top spot that I will make.

Starting after the games of the first week of November, I will also not alter the #1 spot.  It’s possible that LSU will be #1 in the computer next week; but even if they do, I would expect them to fall after the bye week at the end of October. At that time, LSU will have only had 7 weeks of play and would likely be competing with other undefeated teams who will have had 8 or 9 weeks of play.  The Tigers are of course slightly disadvantaged by having had to cancel the opener against McNeese St.

Anyway, I don’t like to have a carousel of #1 teams, that’s why I held onto Ohio St. this long.  I just think it’s time to limit myself to the top few teams based on my objective standards.  Moving Ohio St. from #5 in the computer to #1 here would go too far, in my opinion.  The way the Buckeyes played in earlier games didn’t help their cause too much either.

The scary thing is Utah could be an even more convincing computer #1 at this point.  Michigan could have held onto the win yesterday, and Oregon could be better than 4-3. Still, I consider the Utes a little suspect being that they will not play Stanford, who is (at this point) apparently the best team of the North, the better of the two Pac-12 divisions.

Utah's Devontae Booker breaks free from the ASU defense yesterday.

Utah’s Devontae Booker breaks free from the ASU defense yesterday.

Of course, LSU just beat Florida, who is apparently the best team of the SEC East, the weaker of the two SEC divisions.  That being said, if Utah or Iowa or whoever is #1 in a few weeks, they will also be #1 here.  Last year at this time, Ole Miss was #1 in the computers; and I was glad I waited before making them #1 here.

Alabama jumped 11 spots with the win @Texas A&M.  It wasn’t just the strength of the win.  There were very low-point weeks by some teams in between such as Toledo (beat 1-win EMU), UC-Berkeley (bye), Temple (beat winless Central Florida).  Michigan of course fell with the last-second loss to Michigan St.

Some other teams moved up with less impressive victories than Alabama’s. Notre Dame moved up five spots after beating USC, and Baylor moved up five spots after beating West Virginia.

Stanford went up just a few spots with the win over UCLA, and BYU and Pittsburgh joined the top 25 after wins over Cincinnati and Georgia Tech, respectively.  Both new teams were helped by losses by Penn St., Ole Miss, UCLA, and Kentucky.

Rank Team Previous
1 LSU 2
2 Utah 4
3 Mich. St. 10
4 Iowa 6
5 Ohio St. 1
6 Florida 3
7 TCU 5
8 Alabama 19
9 Clemson 13
10 Florida St. 14
11 Memphis

Memphis

12 Okie St. 9
13 Notre Dame 18
14 Temple 11
15 Baylor 20
16 Toledo 17
17 UC-Berkeley 15
18 TX A&M 7
19 Stanford 22
20 Michigan 8
21 BYU
22 N’western 12
23 Oklahoma 23
24 Houston 21
25 Pittsburgh

pittsburgh_panthers-primary-1980

Out of rankings (with last week’s rank):

16 Penn St.
24 UCLA
25 Ole Miss

Here are the previous rankings blogs:

Preseason

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

Most Unlikely FCS vs. FBS Win Yet

In College Football, Post-game on September 8, 2013 at 12:28 PM

Nicholls St. beat Western Michigan yesterday, 27-24. If you don’t know anything about Nicholls St., you’re probably thinking, “So what? FCS teams have won several games like this in the last few years, who cares if a mediocre MAC team lost a game like this?” Hopefully I can explain.

Going into today, most people probably regarded the biggest upset of a I-A/FBS team by a I-AA/FCS team as the upset by Appalachian St. against Michigan, which caused the AP to revise its rules to allow for voters to rank I-AA teams for the first time. So I’m going to talk about that first.

Michigan was ranked #5 nationally when it lost to Appalachian St. in the opener in 2007, but that was mostly because it was widely regarded as the second-best team in the nation for most of the year in 2006.

Most people had not heard of Appalachian St. before then, but they probably should have. The Mountaineers were on a 14-game winning streak since losing to North Carolina St. in the 2006 opener. They were on a 23-game winning streak against I-AA opponents dating back to October 2005.

Michigan had a decent year in 2007, but they did lose to 3 I-A opponents that year as well. Appalachian St.’s winning streak did end in 2007, but the Mountaineers won their third consecutive title despite two losses on the year. So in hindsight, you can at least understand Appalachian St. having the confidence to believe it could win that game.

As an aside, I’m not even sure that was a bigger upset than Stanford over USC, also in 2007. Stanford, which had gone 1-11 the year before, ended a 35-game home winning streak for the Trojans, who would lose only one other game in the 2007 season. USC was the #2 team in the nation going into that game after starting the season #1. Stanford would finish 4-8 in 2007. The closest comparison I can think of is if Kentucky beats Alabama this year and then Alabama goes on to win the Sugar Bowl.

Anyway, comparing that 2007 Appalachian St. team to 2013 Nicholls St. isn’t like comparing day and night. It’s like comparing the surface of the sun to the dark side of the moon.

Going into yesterday, the Nicholls St. Colonels had a 21-game LOSING streak against NCAA schools (15 of them FCS). The Colonels’ only wins in 2011 and 2012 combined were both against Evangel College, which competes in NAIA. Nicholls St. had lost its last three games against FBS opponents by a combined score of 209-22, managing only a field goal apiece against Oregon to start this year and against Oregon St. at the end of last year.

Oregon St. lost to an FCS opponent, Eastern Washington this year, but just to show how Nicholls St. compares in the context of FCS, the Beavers beat the Colonels last November by a score of 77-3. So Eastern Washington won by 3 against a team made up mostly of the players who had beaten Nicholls St. by 74.

The last time the Colonels had played Western Michigan, in 2011, the Broncos won, 38-7. That WMU team went to a bowl game, by the way. So although the Broncos finished 4-8 last year, we’re not talking about a long-term doormat or anything. There probably is a good number of players on the team with bowl experience.

To be fair, Nicholls St. only lost to South Alabama 9-3 last season, but that was the Jaguars’ first game as an FBS transitional team after going only 4-4 against Division I competition (mostly FCS) the year before. Not quite the same thing. South Alabama also suffered a loss to an FCS team already this season before beating Tulane, a winner of only two games last season.

Western Michigan, on the other hand, had not lost to a currently FCS team since 1996 despite playing one in almost every season, usually wining by a convincing margin. For instance, in 2004, by far the worst WMU season in recent history, the Broncos still beat Tennessee-Martin, 42-0.

The only team I can think of nearly as bad as Nicholls St. that has won a game like this was Central Arkansas in 2009, which was only playing its fourth season in Division I. The Bears finished 5-7, but two of those wins were not against Division I teams and one was against… Nicholls St. But since the upset game by the Central Arkansas was over Western Kentucky, a team fairly new to FBS play, that one was nothing close to the Nicholls St. upset.

So in short, if there is an argument for a bigger disparity in a win by an FCS team over an FBS team, I’d certainly like to hear it. I know a little bit about the subject matter (obviously), but that’s all I can come up with.

Week 5 Top 25 and Comments and LSU Recap/Rant

In College Football, General LSU, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on October 5, 2012 at 4:00 AM

Before I start, I wanted to remind people of my LSU/Florida rivalry blog. I update these (the records anyway) after each game. The two teams have played one another for about 40 years in a row, and they were the first two teams to win two BCS titles apiece, so it’s been an interesting last 10 years especially.

This is the week (the week before the first computer ratings) every year where people try to destroy me and everything I stand for sports-wise because I try to be objective, which is bound to ruffle feathers in small doses, so it’s really big when the whole football world is shaken up if one goes by my rankings. Also, people don’t like that this is a change from going more with the flow in prior weeks. We’ve played nearly half a season, time to take the training wheels off, and if there are scraped knees, spray some antiseptic on it and move on. After all, we’re not talking about shuffleboard, we’re talking about football.

I’m going to start with my rankings since I don’t want to confuse people into thinking I’m giving primary importance to what the voters do, but being unhappy with the voters goes all the way back to 1994 for me—and LSU wasn’t even a team at much risk of having a winning record that year—and that’s what got me started with my own rankings system, which started as purely subjective until it got too difficult to be consistent.

I still use subjective measures early in this season, but as is typical, I try to phase out things like preseason projections, historical strength of programs, and margin of victory before I turn it over to my arithmetical rankings system. This happens every year, it has nothing to do with LSU having less-than-impressive score lines the past two weeks.
So how I did it this year was to basically use a blind resume. I looked at which teams have been beaten and when relevant, I looked at losses. I went ahead and put a couple teams in there with more than one loss, because I couldn’t say any of the unranked undefeated or 1-loss teams fall into the category of having beating someone who at this point seems worth much of anything. I’m going to list the rankings now (after three more sentences). I’m going to go on to give some basic responses to things I’m expecting people to say, and then I’m going to talk about how silly it is to keep moving LSU down. I understand this is mostly just preliminary quibbling with so many teams still undefeated, but if LSU is fortunate enough to win this week and someone complains it was too close, they should be laughed at. If LSU loses, I will just have to be grateful that unless it’s like a Spurrier-era score, we will still look better than USC.

Top 25

rank / team / prior
1 Alabama 1
2 LSU 2
3 Kansas St. 5
4 Oregon St. 16
5 Florida St. 6
6 Notre Dame 15
7 W Virginia 8
8 Washington —
9 Stanford 10
10 Georgia 3
11 S Carolina 7
12 Cincinnati 17
13 Oregon 4
14 Florida 14
15 Ohio St. 22
16 UCLA 24
17 Nebraska —
18 Texas 13
19 Miss. St. 19
20 Clemson 20
21 Mich St. —
22 Arizona —
23 Missouri —
24 Wisconsin 18
25 Baylor 21

Out of rankings:
(9) USC, (11) Oklahoma, (12) TCU. (23) Michigan, (25) Tennessee

Prior rankings:
Preseason
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4

People are going to have objections based on things I don’t care about, because they’re things the voters care about. Just know that it will be 100% objective next week.
But I will mention a couple particulars. You could tell me you know for a fact USC is going to beat UCLA (or any other currently-ranked team they’re playing) 70-0 this year, and even if I believed you are the one person who is known to have traveled time, I would still say I don’t care because at this point it seems that beating Nebraska and losing to Oregon St. is better than beating Hawaii/Syracuse/Cal and losing to Stanford. None of this is forward-looking at all.

Someone may mention that I didn’t rank Arizona when they were undefeated but I am ranking them now and at the same time I moved Oregon down. I still don’t think Arizona is very good (and I doubt Oregon has played another top-60 team), but those teams who happen not to be above Arizona haven’t beaten anyone better in my estimation. A number of teams that I don’t rank ahead of Arizona I still think are better than Arizona. I think Oklahoma or USC would beat Arizona easily. But neither has beaten anyone that you HAVE to be remotely good to beat. Arizona (until there is something to indicate otherwise) had to prove they were at least remotely good to beat Oklahoma St. And the fact that Oklahoma St. lost to Texas doesn’t prove this idea wrong. Oklahoma St. themselves haven’t beaten anyone (unless 3-1 ULL counts), but I was getting pretty desperate there at the end when I added Arizona.

I think I made clear why Oregon is going down, but to summarize. I’m taking out margin of victory (which is what impressed people with the Arizona game moreso than the opponent, be honest), and I’m not factoring in either what my projections (or anyone else’s) were for the Ducks preseason or what they are now. That doesn’t leave the Ducks with much.

I’ll cover LSU in what is becoming my weekly rant, but Washington looks like a heck of a team based on other games, and other than losing to Mississippi St. somewhat convincingly, Auburn doesn’t seem so bad despite its record. “They don’t have a QB”… yes, I’ve heard it. LSU had probably the best 13-0 start of any team ever last year, and they didn’t have much of one either. No risk of me ranking Auburn #1 or #2 though, so don’t worry about that. Anyway, Washington + Auburn seems a lot better than Arizona (a somewhat nobody) + some serious nobodies. I don’t care if LSU beat both teams by 2 and Oregon won by 149 over Arizona instead of 49.

#25 was Baylor, whose best win is over ULM. But none of the other undefeated or one-loss teams have beaten a team that I think has looked as good the first few weeks as ULM has in playing 3 BCS opponents, two on the road. I’m not counting margin of victory for those teams in the top 25, but since ULM is instead being considered as an opponent, I think it is telling that not only did ULM beat Arkansas, but they played Auburn very close in a loss; after all, Auburn didn’t lose convincingly to either Clemson or LSU.

I also don’t care about the “eye test”. If it hasn’t translated into doing well on the beat-somebody test, I don’t care. Wins and losses, maybe an opponent’s final score in other games here and there, but that’s it. Next week, no final scores matter even slightly unless it was within a field goal and the home team won (in which case, I think it’s fair in my system to reduce the value of the win 10% and to reduce the value subtracted by the loss 10%).

Although I did try, I’m sure I wasn’t completely consistent. I’ve been up for 20 hours straight, and when it got toward the end of the year, I used to spend hours trying to be perfectly fair and take every game into account, but I just can’t anymore. Not until someone pays me. So this is as much work as I’m going to do on this all year, except for next week, but it’s much less intellectually taxing to input numbers than it is to rank teams this way.

I usually leave #1 alone, so I didn’t subject Alabama to the same scrutiny, but the win over Michigan plus being 2-0 in the SEC was good enough not to try to find someone else. Another opponent, Western Kentucky, is undefeated apart from the Alabama game .

As to last week, I’m not even going to take seriously ranking Florida St. ahead of LSU. This isn’t the 1990s. And Florida St. has done what exactly? Beat Clemson? Even if Clemson is as good as they were last year, Clemson went into the ACC title game after having won one game (by 3 over Wake Forest) out of four. So they beat Va. Tech, which gave them the right to get drubbed in the Orange Bowl, 70-33.

Forget that a lot of people were ranking USC ahead of LSU a few weeks ago. What happened? USC lost a conference game on the road (to Stanford, which lost to Washington), and LSU won a conference game on the road. LSU also beat that Washington team.

Florida St. easily beat two FCS opponents? That’s a great predictor of being able to beat good teams consistently. This must be why the Seminoles haven’t won the ACC since 2005, a year in which they lost to 5 teams overall. This was despite beating Charleston Southern 62-10 in 2011, beating Samford 59-6 in 2010, and beating Western Carolina 69-0 AND Tennessee-Chattanooga 46-7 in 2008. And in that 5-loss 2005 season, they beat the Citadel, 62-10.

Compare that to LSU’s recent experiences. 2010 was a pretty strong team (11-2 after the Cotton Bowl win over Texas A&M), and they only led McNeese St. by 6 after three quarters that year. Prior to that game, the Tigers had already won 4 SEC games.

Western Kentucky is an emerging FBS team now, so maybe they’re a cut above McNeese St. , but LSU only led them 14-7 in the third quarter last year. We can also go back to LSU’s 2007 national-championship season when LSU only led Tulane 10-9 at halftime. 2009 wasn’t a great year (9-4 after losing the CapitalOne Bowl to Penn St.), but the Tigers only beat a BAD Louisiana Tech team by 8 after leading by only 4 going into the fourth quarter.

LSU has won 41 consecutive non-conference regular-season games (all but a handful since Les came to town), so they know what works. A slow, grinding game gives LSU a sufficient advantage. If you start airing it out and being cute, you might win by a lot or you might help out a team that can’t win on talent alone.

As I’ve made clear, I still disagree with the Oregon #2 ranking. Somehow it doesn’t matter that Arizona has lost another game and Washington beat Stanford, because things only matter if they happen before you play the team in question, not after. It probably also won’t matter if we find out Auburn wasn’t so bad after all.

LSU allowed 22 points to Towson on Saturday. But of course we can’t go beneath the surface to consider that 13 of those points were scored in the last 10 minutes. LSU probably could have followed the Oregon/Arizona blueprint and scored a few meaningless touchdowns after that point, rather than just one after a 9-play drive. After all, the score that put the Fighting Tigers up by 22 was on a 53-yard pass on the first play of the 4th quarter.

And maybe LSU could have done more to put a stop to Towson’s 6-minute touchdown drive, but why? Why not just let a team run out the clock on itself? Slow and steady wins the race for LSU’s offense in such games, but it loses the race for a competitor who takes possession of the ball down 22 in the 4th quarter.

I for one am glad the LSU coaching staff didn’t fall into that trap. They worked on things the team needed to work on and finished the game in a respectable manner instead of trying to impress the pollsters. If LSU wins the SEC, it probably won’t matter too much if the voters remember that LSU played that Washington team anyway. Nor will it matter if they were dropped a spot for in the AP poll after declining to run up the score in September. For instance, Mettenberger didn’t need to throw the ball that much. LSU probably could have done just fine making it primarily a rushing attack. LSU may well have done even better considering Mettenberger was sacked 5 times. But the LSU defense succeeded well enough (until the offense came up with the TD to go up 31-9 anyway) that the game wasn’t really threatened by this. (Towson is the Tigers too, so that’s why I’m not being very creative with my subjects.) But he’s a first-year QB; and against Auburn, it showed. He needed to be taken out of his comfort zone against a team that LSU wasn’t too worried about figuring out how to beat.