My Top 25 Week 8

First, I wanted to mention that Missouri did come first in my computers, but I’m keeping Alabama #1 for now. I don’t like to change #1 on my personal list lightly. However, if after Alabama plays LSU on November 9, Missouri or any other team is ahead, I will list that team as #1. Apart from the switch between 1 and 2, the remainder of my list is solely based upon the results of my formula.

Speaking of LSU, they not only fell because of losing but also because that Georgia loss is hurting them more and more every week. I know the Tigers played a better Georgia team, but there is no way to comb through 126 teams and make adequate adjustments for injuries and so forth, so I don’t do it in any case. Auburn’s win did keep LSU from falling farther, but LSU has a lean couple of weeks coming up with Furman, followed by a bye. A loss to Alabama, followed by another bye, could dig the hole even deeper.

Auburn, which took LSU’s place in the top 7, wasn’t really hurt by the other SEC upsets since they’ve played both LSU and Ole Miss and have not played Georgia or Florida. Auburn probably would have done a little better with LSU winning though. Also, Georgia’s loss will make it harder for the Plainsmen to move up as the season goes on.

Texas Tech also jumped up 8 spots, mostly due to weak opponents or losses by teams ahead of them. The teams are closer together toward the middle of the poll, so small deviations can make a big difference.

Another SEC team fell out of the top 25 and two more nearly did, but the conference as a whole is still pretty dominant when the top teams are compared (see here). With the addition of Ole Miss, there are now nine SEC teams in the top 40 and three more in the top 66. Vanderbilt and Tennessee were not in that latter group last week.

If you think this is too weighted toward the SEC, keep in mind that some SEC strengths of schedule will decline in the next couple of weeks as those of other conferences will improve. Most other major teams do no play FCS opponents at this point, but several SEC teams do. Texas A&M and Auburn will not play FCS (I-AA) opponents (again), but they will play UTEP and FAU, respectively.

I did tweak the formula slightly to make sure the better FCS teams don’t count as horrible losses. Oregon St., for instance, would not be in the top 25 had I not made that change. Kansas St. was also being unduly penalized. Both losses are treated about the same as losing to TCU, just for reference. If I start trying to explain the numbers, almost everyone will get bored, so I’ll just leave it at that. I have more detailed statistical information here if you are interested. If an FCS team has a substantial number of losses (or losing percentage) in its sub-division, the rating decreases fairly quickly, so the change doesn’t benefit all teams who lost such games. FCS team ratings are just more of a bell curve now, which I think more accurately reflects the quality of the FCS. That’s the only part I’ve tinkered with in the last few years.

Top 25

rank / team / prior
1 Alabama 1
2 Missouri 2
3 Florida St. 5
4 Stanford 7
5 Ohio St. 6
6 Oregon 8
7 Auburn 15
8 Clemson 4
9 Miami 10
10 TX Tech 17
11 Oklahoma 14
12 Baylor 11
13 Va. Tech 9
14 Fresno St. 19
15 Michigan 23
16 LSU 3
17 N. Illinois 22
18 UCF —
19 Arizona St. —
20 Oregon St. —
21 Notre Dame —
22 Louisville 16
23 UCLA 13
24 Georgia 12
25 TX A&M 21

Out of rankings: (18) S Carolina, (20) Houston, (24) Mich. St., (25) Utah

All 126 teams

Prior rankings:
Preseason
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7