theknightswhosay

My Top 25 Week 14

In Bowls, College Football, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on December 1, 2013 at 6:08 PM
Very little separates the top four, especially the top two.

Very little separates the top four, especially the top two.

In case you missed it, I wrote a blog yesterday about the changes to the Thanksgiving rivalries.

Top 25

rank / team / prior

1 Florida St. 1
2 Auburn 3
3 Ohio St. 4
4 Missouri 5
5 Arizona St. 7
6 Alabama 2
7 Stanford 11
8 N. Illinois 6
9 Mich. St. 13
10 Baylor 10
11 S Carolina 16
12 Okie St. 8
13 UCF 14
14 Oregon 20
15 Clemson 9
16 Oklahoma 15
17 Duke 21
18 UCLA 25
19 Fresno St. 12
20 Louisville 18
21 LSU 23
22 Wisconsin 17
23 Georgia —
24 Notre Dame 19
25 U. Miami —

Out of rankings: (22) USC, (24) TX A&M

All 126 teams

Prior rankings:
Preseason
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13

The first part of this is based on the national-championship race, then I’ll get into the other changes to the rankings.

I’ll just get to the point. If there weren’t championship games, I would absolutely want Florida St. to play Auburn for the title. If Auburn beats Missouri, I’m not changing my mind about that one, but I’ll wait and see on Ohio St. I don’t factor in margin of victory in my ratings; but as a fan, I lean heavily toward Florida St. because no one has given them a game yet. It would be a shame to do everything they could be expected to do and not get to play for a title, assuming they beat Duke.

The main thing I wanted to do was just to give a summary of where the big opponents (defined as the top 60 teams in the FBS) of the four major title competitors rank in my new ratings.

(1) Florida St. (undefeated):
(15) Clemson
(25) Miami
(57) Boston Collegte
(58) Pittsburgh

(3) Ohio St. (undefeated):
(22) Wisconsin
(35) Iowa
(37) Michigan
(50) Penn St.
(54) Buffalo

Ohio St. has more wins from #30 to #60, but I think based on what I’d call good opponents (top 30), there are more teams that can go undefeated against Ohio St.’s schedule than Florida St.’s schedule. I think even 7-5 Michigan was perfectly capable of going undefeated against Ohio St.’s schedule so far. Ohio St. didn’t play Michigan St. (the only team to beat Michigan convincingly) or Nebraska (who beat Michigan by 4), and Michigan only lost by a field goal apiece to Penn St. (in OT) and Iowa. Michigan did beat Notre Dame, which I think is about as good as Wisconsin, Ohio St.’s best win.

Onto the two one-loss teams:

(2) Auburn:
(6) Alabama
(21) LSU – LOSS
(23) Georgia
(28) Texas A&M
(38) Ole Miss
(56) Mississippi St.

(4) Missouri:
(11) South Carolina – LOSS
(23) Georgia
(28) Texas A&M
(38) Ole Miss
(40) Vanderbilt

You can see why I wouldn’t necessarily endorse Missouri over an undefeated team. Even with the win over Auburn, that’s still just one top-20 win. Two top-25 wins, but Florida St. would have three. If you start talking about teams below the top 25, that might be an advantage in arguing against Florida St., but it would be a disadvantage in arguing for Missouri against Ohio St. I just think it should be a clearer case before you put a team with a loss in instead of an undefeated team. Auburn qualifies; Missouri probably doesn’t.

This is another way of looking at it that I saw on another blog.

Source: CollegeFootballTalk on WordPress

Source: CollegeFootballTalk on WordPress

I had a feeling I was going to end up regretting that the 4-team playoff didn’t start this year (Alabama would be the natural fourth, although I have to admit I’m personally glad they seem to be out of the running); but if Ohio St. or Florida St. ends up losing, then it would be the perfect two-team outcome. If they both lose, then maybe we can get another all-SEC championship.

To get to the rest of the top 10, Alabama stayed in the top 4 in the major polls, but computer formulas treat a loss as just a loss. It also doesn’t help that the Tide’s SEC East opponents were Tennessee and Kentucky. Arizona St. also edged in front by beating Arizona. It’s likely that Stanford would take Arizona St.’s place in front of Alabama with a win. Northern Illinois could pass up one or two of the conference-championship losers. Michigan St. of course could gain a few spots by beating Ohio St. Baylor can also capitalize on others’ losses if they get past Texas.

Below the top 10, Oklahoma St. fell a few spots by being idle. The same principle applies to them as to Baylor except that OSU plays a btter team. One team they may pass up is South Carolina, which jumped five spots by beating Clemson, which went down six spots. Oregon went up six spots after beating Oregon St. UCLA and Duke also went up considerably after winning their rivalry games.

Fresno St., Wisconsin, and Notre Dame all fell a bit by losing. USC and Texas A&M were in the last few teams last week, so they couldn’t stay in the top 25 with their losses. Georgia beat Georgia Tech, and it also helped out that Auburn and Missouri won. Miami’s win over Pittsburgh, combined with with losses by others, put the Hurricanes back into the top 25.

I did make a small adjustment to how losses to FCS teams are treated, but of course all the revelant teams are outside of the top 25.

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  1. […] Prior rankings: Preseason Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 […]

  2. […] Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 […]

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