theknightswhosay

My Top 25 Week 9

In College Football, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on October 27, 2013 at 1:49 PM

top 4 week 9

I think I can anticipate the first question that most have, and that’s probably something like, “How are Ohio St. and one-loss Stanford ahead of Oregon and Florida St.?”

Put simply, if the season ended right now (without Oregon playing Arizona, Stanford, Oregon St., Pac-12 championship and without Florida St. playing Miami, Florida, ACC championship game), I think the right 1 vs. 2 match-up would be Stanford and Alabama.

Stanford has 7 wins against FBS teams to Oregon’s 6. They’ve beaten Arizona St. and Oregon St., neither of which have played the Ducks (yet). Oregon has their best two wins, Washington and UCLA, in common with Stanford.

Florida St. also only has 6 wins against FBS opponents. After the win over Clemson, the Seminoles’ best win is over #47 Pittsburgh.

Like Stanford, Ohio St. also has an “extra” FBS win, but without the loss of course. The Buckeyes have been rightly criticized for their schedule, but they’ve beaten four teams that are rated higher than Florida St.’s #3 win, Maryland.

Just keep watching in the next two weeks when Ohio St. has approximately 0 points to earn (Purdue doesn’t count for anything at the moment), while Oregon could potentially beat Stanford, and Florida St. could potentially beat Miami and Wake Forest.

Ohio St. could get a lot of points with Michigan, which is another team whose ranking will probably be criticized, but if Michigan isn’t at least a decent team, then they’ll probably lose one or two of their pre-Ohio St. stretch: @Michigan St., Nebraska, @Northwestern, @Iowa. Also, if Ohio St. beats Michigan twice, the second win would end up taking away from the value of the first win.

If Oregon beats Arizona St., for instance, in the Pac-12 championship, they won’t have that problem. Florida St. could have to face Miami again, but Miami is apparently a better team that Michigan and could possibly pick up a couple of top-25 wins (and maybe three top-40 wins), depending on other results) between the two games.

As South Carolina shows (by going from #18 to unranked and back up to #16 in just three weeks), the teams are a lot closer together lower down in the top 25, so that’s something else to keep in mind. The gap between Alabama and Michigan is 0.4. To get to a team that far below Michigan, you have to go all the way down to #45. So don’t think that Ohio St. will necessarily beat a top-15 team in Michigan. The Wolverines may not even be ranked with a couple of losses down the stretch. On the other hand, Florida might be ranked in the top 20 when Florida St. plays them.

Top 25

rank / team / prior

1 Alabama 1
2 Stanford 4
3 Ohio St. 5
4 Florida St. 3
5 Oregon 6
6 Auburn 7
7 Missouri 2
8 Miami 9
9 Oklahoma 11
10 Clemson 8
11 Fresno St. 14
12 Baylor 12
13 Michigan 15
14 LSU 16
15 N. Illinois 17
16 S Carolina —
17 Va. Tech 13
18 TX Tech 10
19 TX A&M 25
20 Mich. St. —
21 Houston —
22 Notre Dame 21
23 UCF 18
24 Louisville 22
25 Arizona St. 19

Out of rankings: (20) Oregon St., (23) UCLA, (24) Georgia

All 126 teams

Prior rankings:
Preseason
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8

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  1. Stanford should not be ahead of any major conference undefeated team

    • For the time being, I disagree. Ohio St., Oregon, and Baylor have done very little. I think if you took the best seven wins of all three teams combined, that’s not much better than Stanford’s seven wins. If UCLA continued to be Oregon continued with a schedule of the quality it’s had so far and Stanford played the schedule it’s been playing (I guess you’d have to replace Oregon with another team just as good) without any more losses, I would want Stanford to go ahead of Oregon. Oregon would be the equivalent of a Boise St. or Utah that finished undefeated. But since that’s not going to happen, we don’t have to worry about it.

      Ohio St., on the other hand, should be worried about a very good one-loss team.

      I’ll be impressed by Baylor if they win their last five games, just like I would be impressed by Oregon winning its last five games, though.

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