Posts Tagged ‘N.C. State’

Final Rankings, 2010 College Football Season

In College Football, General LSU, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on January 12, 2011 at 9:33 PM

Full ratings

rank team prev.
1 Auburn 1
2 TCU 3
3 Oklahoma 5
4 Ohio St. 5
5 Oregon 2
6 Boise St. 7
7 Stanford 9
8 LSU 10
9 Nevada 14
10 Okie St. 13
11 Mich. St. 6
12 Arkansas 8
13 Alabama 18
14 Wisconsin 12
15 Missouri 11
16 Utah 17
17 Texas A&M 15
18 Florida St. 21
19 Va. Tech 19
20 Nebraska 16
21 Miss St. 24
22 NC State —
23 Tulsa 25
24 S.Carolina 20
25 Notre Dame —

Out of top 25: (22) West Virginia, (23) Hawaii

I’m pretty tired from finishing all this, but I do have a few comments. I’m pleased LSU finished in the top 10, although you always wonder about a play here and there when you get that high, especially playing the teams LSU played. I’m going to post a blog about Les Miles and his accomplishments at LSU so far with more details. Although this is his 4th 11+ win season, this is the first time people can’t really argue that it was because of Saban. It’s good to make that step and also good that things can be even better next year. I’m hoping it’s another 2006-2007 transition (but hopefully with less than two losses this time).

I know, Notre Dame had 5 losses, but Tulsa doesn’t look like such a bad loss now, and I think they were penalized for it too much in the human polls. Michigan and Navy still aren’t good losses, but there were wins over Utah, USC, and Pitt to balance those losses out. The other losses were Michigan St. and Stanford, Big Ten co-champions and Orange Bowl champions, respectively.

I also know people will say Oregon is too low, but there aren’t the quality wins there. Their second-best win is over USC, the same second-best win that Notre Dame has.

I calculated my rankings before the national championship game and even if they had won, Oregon would have been stuck at #2. I don’t think that would have been right, so I plan to make losses count for more next year. But it demonstrates the scheduling deficit I’m talking about.

I also have to talk a bit about the SEC. As you’ve probably heard, this is the fifth BCS title in a row for the conference and sixth in 8 years (to go back to my 2003 LSU Tigers). A less-quoted bit of information is that the top 5 of the SEC West (Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Alabama, and Mississippi St.) went 44-2 (almost 96%) against outside competition, the only losses being by Alabama to South Carolina (who happens to be in the other SEC division) and by Arkansas to Ohio St. These were the best wins, excepting the ones against one another, based on my rankings:
(5) Oregon
(11) Michigan St.
(17) Texas A&M, twice
(24) South Carolina, thrice
(27) West Virginia
(32) Florida, thrice
(39) North Carolina

Congratulations to Ohio St. for finally beating an SEC team in a bowl game, by the way. They were my pre-season #1 for a reason, although I did mention at the time that I thought Wisconsin would be a problem, and that turned out to be their only loss. Of course, Arkansas was only arguably #2 in the SEC, and Ohio St. is the only one of the three co-champions of the Big Ten to win, so they have to be the real Big Ten #1. Michigan St., another co-champion, lost to the #4 team in the SEC West, 49-7. So you have to keep these accomplishments in perspective. Ohio St. still hasn’t beaten an SEC champion in a bowl game.

I don’t understand the billboards that went up in Ohio congratulating TCU. For doing what, making sure that the Big Ten still didn’t look that good despite Ohio St.’s bowl win? And if you’re trying to make Wisconsin feel bad, why not put them up in Wisconsin? Of course, were I a Wisconsin fan, I would be reminded of my team’s win over Ohio St., so maybe that wouldn’t make sense either.

Back to the SEC, I was hoping Alabama would pass up Michigan St., but reducing the gap from 12 spots to 2 is pretty much the most one game out of 13 (when between two good teams) is supposed to do, and I should remind you that I don’t factor in margin of victory. If I were a voter, I probably would have put Alabama higher. But these things happen in the computer rankings, and I think it gives a better picture of the whole season than the human polls do.

Anyway, I’m not letting the college football season die just yet. I’m going to post about Les Miles among LSU coaches, and I’m going to do the final conference report. I might even think of something else. I also have some blog housekeeping to do, as well as posting blogs that were lost in cyberspace upon the closing of sites I’d rather not mention.

By the way, in less than 8 months (September 3 to be exact), LSU returns to the House that Jerry Built to face the Oregon Ducks.


Week 11 Top 25 and Commentary

In Rankings, Rankings Commentary on November 14, 2010 at 3:26 PM

Full ratings

rank team prev.

1 Auburn 1
2 TCU 2
3 Oregon 4
4 LSU 3
5 Okie St. 6
6 Boise St. 7
7 Mich. St. 5
8 Ohio St. 9
9 Nebraska 8
10 Missouri 11
11 Alabama 12
12 Stanford 10
13 Oklahoma 16
14 Wisconsin 13
15 Arkansas 17
16 Nevada 19
17 Texas A&M 23
18 S.Carolina —
19 Utah 14
20 Iowa 15
21 Miss St. 18
22 Florida St. —
23 USC —
24 Michigan —
25 NC State —

Out of top 25: (20) Arizona, (21) Kansas St., (22) Florida, (24) Cent. Fla., (25) N.Carolina

Nos. 1 through 3 weren’t exactly impressive, but I don’t factor in margin of victory, and it’s hard to make up for having a loss.

The discrepancy between TCU and Boise St. is mostly based on scheduling. Boise St. has three games left–two of them against fairly decent teams, Fresno St. and Nevada, and the other against Utah St. TCU has only New Mexico left, which is worse than Utah St. Also, it is certain that Oregon and LSU would more ahead of TCU by continuing to win. It’s harder to speculate about what the order might be among Boise St., TCU, and Oklahoma St., but if Oklahoma St. continues to win that would likely add Nebraska to the schedule, along with Oklahoma, who is already there. My guess would be that Oklahoma St. would move ahead of TCU and stay ahead of Boise St., but it could be close between Boise St. and Oklahoma St.

LSU should move ahead of Oregon if both win out, but it depends on how their opponents do in other games. I didn’t anticipate Oregon moving ahead of LSU this time, but past opponents did well enough (a big win was USC over Arizona, while LSU’s opponents had more mixed results) for Oregon that it happened. Arkansas is still on LSU’s schedule and that will count for more than Arizona. There isn’t as significant a difference between Ole Miss and Oregon St. LSU will move ahead next week though, since Oregon has a bye.

I’ve mentioned this before, but with computer rankings, especially those like mine, week-to-week variations mean different things from what they mean in the polls. So the rankings are not saying LSU was better last week, and now Oregon is better, and next week LSU will be better. It’s based on what has happened so far, not with a view toward who goes ahead by the teams’ winning out.

The carousel has continued at the bottom. USC moved in, knocking Arizona out. South Carolina moved in, knocking Florida out. A couple of the other changes were more indirect. Even though there was some shuffling with ACC teams, it was because North Carolina lost to Virginia Tech while Florida St. and North Carolina St. won (even though Wake Forest doesn’t count for much). Michigan moved up by virtues of others’ losses as well, since Purdue wasn’t worth a lot of points either. Most of the other changes were regular shifts based on schedule. The only currently top-25 teams who lost last week were Utah, Iowa, and Mississippi St., who were all just a little too high to fall out of the rankings.

Week 9 Top 25 and Commentary

In Rankings, Rankings Commentary on October 31, 2010 at 2:44 PM

rank team prev.
1 Auburn 1
2 TCU 4
3 Missouri 3
4 Mich. St. 2
5 Oklahoma 6
6 LSU 5
7 Oregon 9
8 Utah 11
9 Ohio St. 7
10 Nebraska 13
11 Boise St. 10
12 Okie St. 15
13 Alabama 8
14 Arizona 14
15 Iowa 22
16 Wisconsin 12
17 Miss St. 17
18 Stanford 18
19 NC State —
20 Arkansas 21
21 Baylor 25
22 Nevada 20
23 S.Carolina 19
24 Florida St. 16
25 Hawaii —

Missouri and Michigan St. didn’t lose much here, but I double-checked the numbers, and they make sense. It doesn’t work like the polls, which tend to dramatically punish the most-recent loss. Oregon and Utah gained some ground, just not enough to get above the best one-loss teams. They have big games ahead though. LSU has been stagnant with a I-AA win, a loss, and a bye week in the last three weeks. I had Alabama with two wins over Ole Miss rather than a win over Tennessee and a win over Ole Miss, so that’s why they moved down more than would make sense for a team with a bye. Alabama will be fine if they beat LSU, Auburn, and Mississippi St. Boise St. has been falling behind, but with Hawaii next week, that’s a chance to move up again.

Not entirely unlike the BCS, this is made so that the best teams finish on top, so I don’t mind that there will be teams like Hawaii that make it in there from time to time, even with a couple of losses.

For the first time since I’ve been doing computerized rankings, there were no Big East teams in the top 40.