theknightswhosay

SEC Wednesday #9

In College Football, Preview, SEC Wednesdays on November 25, 2015 at 8:54 PM

I’m rather proud of my Florida Atlantic + 31, but it only counts as one win. So I was happy at that point…

I was wrong about everything else against the spread though (I exclude the FCS games, which don’t usually have a spread on ESPN anyway). Missouri and Arkansas were only a few points away. Of course South Carolina was a bogus call away from winning, but that was one of the no-spread games.

In addition to Florida and Alabama, I got the winners right with Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Auburn, and Texas A&M.

I’m 47-21 in picking winners and now only 24-38 against the spread. Hopefully both myself and LSU can finish on a good note next week.

SEC WED

LSU and A&M (follow link to rivalry blog) hoped to be playing for more than 3rd in the SEC West for most of the season. Texas A&M impressed me enough against Vandy to take them against the spread. So this time if LSU plays terribly, I’ll at least be partly correct. I will pick LSU to win. The Tigers were not in very high spirits last year and pulled out a victory as well. This season hasn’t been a walk in the park for the Aggies either. They did well in Nashville, but even a disappointed Tiger Stadium is a bit more intense than Nashville. Note that I’m not claiming LSU has played a whole lot better than Vandy has. LSU does have that nighttime advantage.

Missouri just lost to Tennessee by 11, and I don’t think Arkansas is that much better than Tennessee. On the other hand, Arkansas has had so much more offensive production lately, I don’t think Mizzoui can stay close. The Tennessee-Missouri game wasn’t even as close as the margin indicates since it was 19-8 and the Tigers didn’t score at all until the fourth quarter.

I actually think Georgia Southern is better than Georgia Tech, so I will once again take the Bulldogs minus the points (5).

Kentucky was so close to bearing Louisville last year. I think the Wildcats can at least do the same this year after demolishing Charlotte. Louisville only beat Wake Forest by 1 and Boston College by 3. So I’ll take Kentucky +4 but the Cardinals to win. Louisville’s only losses since game 3 against Clemson have come to Florida St. and Pitt. I don’t think Kentucky is on that level. They are on the BC/Wake Forest level, however.

Speaking of Wake Forest, Clemson beat them at Death Valley East by 20. I’m not buying the 17-point line at South Carolina despite the Citadel game. South Carolina has only lost by more twice, both in games outside of the state over six weeks ago.

I think Auburn will find a way to stay within about 10 of Alabama. It could be a blowout, but the Tide beat Tennessee by 5 and they’re overdue for a closer game in my opinion. Tide fans can rejoice because as I said earlier, I’ve been wrong about Auburn just about every week.

Clemson and Alabama to win though. Rivalry games can be nuts, but I don’t know if I see a WVU-Pitt in either one. This isn’t 2013 in the case of the Iron Bowl. If either were 8-3, something like that, I might feel differently.

Another Iron Bowl upset on the Plains? I doubt it.

Another Iron Bowl upset on the Plains? I doubt it.

I’ll take Vandy and the 17.5 points. They’ve come up short in trying to stay close against Houston and Texas A&M in recent weeks, but Tennessee is not that kind of team. As I mentioned, they beat Missouri by 11. Vanderbilt is better than Missouri. Tennessee hasn’t beaten Vandy beyond the current point spread since 2006. Tennessee to win.

Ole Miss/Miss St. is an even line, so no splitting the difference there. One lost to Arkansas by a point, the other beat Arkansas by a point. That’s basically a tie to me, but looking outside of that Ole Miss is playing better, so I’ll go with the Rebels. Dak is great, but I don’t think he has enough support in a shootout. I think the Ole Miss offense will tire out the Bulldog defense before the reverse occurs. If State makes it a methodical ball-control game, that might be a better strategy, but easier said than done.

Has Florida played down to its competition or are the Gators just terrible now? Florida St. has lost its last two road games though with a total of 29 points scored between the two, so I understand why they’re only picked to win by 2.5. Florida was within five last year, and they were painful to watch most of the season then. Florida St. obviously isn’t as good. I’ll be an SEC homer and pick the Gators based on that

Previous entries

Week 4 Preview (predictions only)

SEC Wednesday #1

SEC Wednesday #2

SEC Wednesday #3

SEC Wednesday #4

SEC Wednesday #5

SEC Wednesday #6

SEC Wednesday #7

SEC Wednesday #8

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