theknightswhosay

SEC Wednesday #8

In College Football, General LSU, Post-game, Preview, SEC Wednesdays on November 18, 2015 at 3:41 PM

SEC WED

Last Week

I rethought the FCS game. It’s too hard to try to translate FCS results to an FBS game. It wouldn’t make sense to start using the spread now on those; so for A&M, I won’t count that either way against the spread.

I picked Arkansas and the points, but I didn’t envision the LSU offense starting so miserably that the Tigers would finish with only 14 points and lose.

I can’t get Auburn right no matter what I do, so no surprise there.

Florida won by two points more than I wanted them to. Every time I’m on the fence, you should probably just pick the opposite.

I was right about North Texas playing Tennessee respectably. They can’t beat anyone but they can stay within a few touchdowns.

Mississippi St. was a complete failure, but there was a goal line stand and a couple other decent drives that didn’t lead to points early on. I did think Alabama would win though.

Vanderbilt came through. It was nice to win a close one against the spread. I thought Vandy would win by at least a touchdown though.

I don’t know where it came from, but Missouri managed to beat BYU late, so I was wrong both ways about that one.

Once again, my overall record got slightly worse while my “against the spread” record got slightly better. The records are now 40-18, 23-31.

Next Week

LSU is now picked to lose against an Ole Miss team on the road (click here for Rivalry Series), which is understandable after the Rebels had a bye; but I’m going to pick LSU both with the points (4.5) and to win. Arkansas is the only team in the Miles era to beat LSU after a Tiger loss. LSU has not lost three in a row since an 8-game losing streak in 1999.

I made the wrong picks to win in the Alabama and Arkansas games when I should have listened to my first inclination that both teams have favorable philosophical match-ups against LSU. LSU seemed to be able to do to Ole Miss last year what Alabama and Arkansas were able to do to LSU both years as far as shutting down the opposing offenses (although it was partly self-inflicted in all cases). Also, I still think LSU is better than last year. Ole Miss is at best about the same as last year. Also, Ole Miss’s last game after a bye week was a 30-0 loss to Arkansas last year.

TE Logan Stokes scored 6 of LSU's 10 points against Ole Miss last year, but the Rebels only scored 7.

TE Logan Stokes scored 6 of LSU’s 10 points against Ole Miss last year, but the Rebels only scored 7.

I’m going to take Florida Atlantic and the 31 points. Florida to win of course. I made the right call with North Texas last week. Like the Mean Green, the Owls aren’t going to beat many teams, as their record shows. But in this case, there is an even more consistent record of staying close. FAU only has two losses by more than 14, and the biggest loss was 24. Florida has only beaten its last two fairly weak SEC opponents (Vanderbilt and South Carolina) by a combined 12 points.

No line for the South Carolina/Citadel or Alabama/Charleston Southern games. I guess if the Gamecocks can beat the Commodores, they can beat the Bulldogs. I think Alabama will manage as well.

Auburn -33 against Idaho. Unlike FAU, Idaho has been blown out. USC beat them by 50 earlier in the year, and the Vandals lost to Appalachian St. by 27 in their last game. Auburn has been showing some improvement in recent weeks despite the setback against Georgia.

Since starting 1-3, the Razorbacks’ only loss has been to Alabama, which Arkansas still handled pretty well, losing by only 13. The Bulldogs just got manhandled by the Tide. I don’t think a trip to Fayetteville is the cure for what ails them. Arkansas -3.5.

Normally I would take Georgia Southern against Georgia, but the secret seems to be out that the Bulldogs are at least slightly vulnerable in this game. The line is only 14.5. I was surprised by the Bulldogs’ level of play at Auburn last week, so hopefully they can maintain that enough to beat the spread in this one.

I’m making a similar call with Missouri. Those Tigers are coming of a game in which I was pleasantly surprised with their performance against BYU. This game will also be at home, so Mizzou may be able to maintain a bit of momentum. I don’t really like road favorites by over a touchdown (8.5 to be exact) anyway. Also, Tennessee was not impressive in either of its last two games (a win by 24 at home against North Texas and a win by 3 at home against South Carolina).

Normally I would laugh at A&M being just a 7-point favorite against Vanderbilt, but not right now. A&M hasn’t had even a relatively impressive showing in six weeks. I guess Alabama didn’t rough them up too badly, but the next week they lost to Ole Miss by 20, then they beat South Carolina by just 7 at home, then they lost to Auburn by 16 at home. I can see why they’re not expected to go to Nashville and win by more than 7. (A 24-point win over Western Carolina isn’t exactly impressive either. Chattanooga beat the Catamounts by more just three weeks ago.) I mentioned how close Vandy kept the Florida game (at Florida). I can see something similar here, but A&M to win. Just a little bit too much talent.

Kentucky is still theoretically alive for a bowl game. They were embarrassed in their last home game against Tennessee though. Eastern Kentucky took the Wildcats to overtime in the same stadium. I’m just not giving 24.5. I know Charlotte isn’t very good, but they’re not completely terrible. They were within 24 of Marshall, which is probably better than Kentucky. UT-San Antonio is not better than Kentucky, but that was the 49ers’ last game and was only a loss by 3. Kentucky by a couple of touchdowns MAYBE.

Previous entries

Week 4 Preview (predictions only)

SEC Wednesday #1

SEC Wednesday #2

SEC Wednesday #3

SEC Wednesday #4

SEC Wednesday #5

SEC Wednesday #6

SEC Wednesday #7

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