Apologies for having this late again. I have next Wednesday off, so unless there is some unforeseen tragedy (again), there should not be a problem having this by Wednesday evening. I also have a home computer again, so this should help me do things more efficiently.
I’m cursed when it comes to Auburn. They’re probably mad because I never saw them as a contender for the SEC at any point this year.
Two weeks ago, I picked the Plains Tigers and the points. While I think once the game goes to overtime, you should automatically win if you took the points, that’s not how gambling establishments see it. Don’t ask me why not.
This time I knew they would play a relatively close game with Ole Miss that could come down to a desperation heave at the last second. I was right about that. But since it’s a loss by 8 instead of 7 or fewer, I lose.
So I guess my descriptions of what I expect of games is more accurate than deciding whether to take the points or give the points. This has been common to several teams in recent weeks. Auburn just stands out in particular.
I was right to take South Carolina and the points though. A&M didn’t even come close to covering 16.5.
I said I could be totally wrong about Georgia, and I was. They haven’t shown up at all since the Tennessee comeback.
Vanderbilt was also a disappointment. I know the Commodores don’t have a great offense, but I didn’t expect a shutout after they scored 10-20 in the conference games. I also didn’t expect Houston to break 30.
Kentucky’s previous conference home games: lost to Florida by 5, beat Missouri by 8, lost to Auburn by 3. Yeah, sorry I didn’t see “lost to Tennesssee by 31” coming. I was worried they’d hit a wall, which I mentioned, but making the wrong call was still understandable in light of the above.
Arkansas beat FCS state or whatever, so at least I my record in picking winners is pretty good still.
My records fall to 32-11, 16-24 against the spread.
I don’t know why I even bother, but my bad luck is becoming amusing. I did have one good week about a month ago, so maybe it’s time for another.
I’ll give Missouri the 7.5. As mentioned, they lost to Kentucky by 8. I think that’s a good sign for the Bulldogs. Missouri’s only conference win was probably a big part of what caused Spurrier to retire in midseason. (Even if you’re seeing this into or after the game, I will make sure it’s published on my blog by the kickoff.)
Since Florida struggled with Kentucky and Tennessee in the early going, they’ve won by over 21 against both Georgia and Ole Miss, won by 18 @ Missouri, and lost by a close 7 @ LSU. Combine that with Vandy losing @ Houston by 34 last week, and I’m picking the favorite again (-21).
Georgia and Kentucky are both headed in the wrong direction. Other than Vanderbilt, Kentucky is probably the only team in the conference I would give 14.5 points to against UGA. Luckily for the Bulldogs, that’s the team on the schedule this week.
I’ll finally pick an underdog with Ole Miss/Arkansas. Arkansas and Auburn were pretty even a couple weeks ago, as mentioned, but I think Arkansas has been pretty reliable of late. Lost to A&M by 7 (neutral field), won @ Tennessee by 4, lost @ Alabama by 13. I think Alabama was playing better then than Ole Miss is playing now. So Hogs +10.5. I think the Rebels are a little too good to lose this one at home though.
South Carolina has been doing well against the spread. Other than against Kentucky and against G5 or lower opponents (meaning not major-conference), Tennessee plays every game pretty close. So I’ll take the Gamecocks and the points again (17 this time), but I’ll go with the home team to win like the previous game.
I’ll pick one more favorite in A&M. Auburn will probably win just to spite me, but they lost at Arkansas by 8, so I see no reason they won’t lose in College Station by the same or more. I don’t think A&M would need overtime to match that. Ole Miss was significantly better than A&M when the two played a couple of weeks ago, but I think Auburn only made that close because they were at home.
I already suggested that I would take LSU and the points. Sure, give Alabama three points or so for being at home, but not 6.5. I’ll tell you tomorrow about my pick to win.
Week 4 Preview (predictions only)