1 Florida St. 2
2 Miss. St. 3
3 Ole Miss 4
4 Auburn 1
5 Notre Dame 6
6 Baylor 17
7 Alabama 10
8 Arizona 5
9 Oregon 12
10 Marshall 11
11 Georgia —
12 Oklahoma 15
13 Mich. St. 16
14 Ga. Tech 7
15 Minnesota 20
16 USC —
17 Nebraska 13
18 UCLA 9
19 TCU 8
20 LSU —
21 Colo. St. —
22 Kentucky —
23 Duke —
24 Okie St. —
25 TX A&M 14
Full computer rankings 1-128 (as I will explain, these are not in complete agreement with the top 25 given above)
Out of rankings: (18) Missouri, (19) Penn St., (21) Ohio St., (22) Arizona St., (23) Louisville, (24) UC-Berkeley, (25) Florida
Explanation and future rankings
Not to get too off-track, but the LSU game was about what I expected going into it. One of those goofy Les Miles games that we would somehow manage to win. LSU does not lose two in a row often. It’s only happened once since 2002. That was at the end of the regular season in 2008.
I’ll get to my broader thoughts about that later in the week. For now, I’ve updated my LSU/Florida Rivalry blog. I’m working on one for Kentucky. I had done one back on TSN, but I was waiting until LSU played Kentucky again before doing it again here. A lot of people don’t realize that LSU had played Kentucky about 50 years in a row before the SEC reduced the permanent inter-divisional rivalries from two to one.
Anyway, on the list above, I am putting Florida St., who had been my preseason top team, #1 for now. It depends on how other teams do, but it’s possible that Florida St. could beat Notre Dame and become #1 in the computer rankings, so I don’t want to jump them over Mississippi St. when I might just have to reverse it next week. Regardless, after next week, I think I can just go with my formula’s results.
Kentucky isn’t a bad team, but I doubt they’re much of a threat to Mississippi St. a week from Saturday, so I don’t see the point of prolonging it any longer if the Bulldogs are still the computer #1 after the result of the FSU/Notre Dame game. I’m glad that the major polls were willing to put them there though. I was worried the voters would be too deferential to Florida St. until they lose (if they lose).
Lower down, I found it interesting that I have one of the win chains in order, and the major polls do not. Arizona beat Oregon, who beat Michigan St., who beat Nebraska. Looking at the polls, you would think Michigan St. beat Oregon, who beat Arizona, who beat Nebraska. USC doesn’t fit in, but don’t forget they have two losses, not just one.
There were a lot of losses and bye weeks by low-top-25 teams last week, so that explains the turnover, but the highest team that fell out (Missouri) was only #18. Georgia, the team that beat Missouri, is the only new team that rose really high; but they were a close #26 last week, and they were the only team in that vicinity with a good win.
USC also made a fairly large jump, from nowhere to #16, but that can happen when you beat a previously unbeaten team. The Pac-12 overall strength of schedule is improving now that more of the top teams are playing one another. That phenomenon is why Mississippi St. and Ole Miss are so far ahead of the other unbeatens and Auburn is so far ahead of the other one-loss teams.
Kentucky and Colorado St. might not be great, but as I said, there were a lot of losses lower down on the top 25 and even as you continue into the top 35. Kentucky was #29 last week, and Colorado St. was #34. USC’s win had some effect upon Colorado St. too, since the Rams beat Boston College, who had beaten the Trojans.
Duke also joined the top 25 by beating a previously unbeaten team, in their case Georgia Tech.
The Les Miles combo of LSU and Oklahoma St. were only gone a week, so I don’t think I need to elaborate too much on those. Florida was #25 going in, and Oklahoma St.’s prior opponents had some mild successes to augment the Cowboys’ win over Kansas.