theknightswhosay

My Top 25 Week 13

In College Football, Post-game, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on November 24, 2013 at 3:16 PM
Another change to #4, but the rest of the top 3 remains the same.  Of course, #2 plays #3 next week.

Another change to #4, but the rest of the top 3 remains the same. Of course, #2 plays #3 next week.

First of all, I’ve updated the LSU/Texas A&M Rivalry blog to reflect yesterday’s results.

This is the first week I remember where I have the same members of the top 25 as the AP poll. Different order of course, but I guess it’s just more obvious than usual. I think the blogger poll last week with only three members of the “others receiving votes” category was another indication.

The main point of my computer rankings is trying to get the right teams at the top. If the seasons were over for Ohio St. and Florida St., they should play in one semifinal with the winner playing the winner of the Iron Bowl. Seems right to me. Missouri could possibly pass up the Buckeyes, but since either Alabama or Auburn will lose, that probably will not cause a problem.

Arizona St. is interesting. Arizona would now count almost as much as Michigan would for Ohio St. I don’t think Stanford would count for that much more than Michigan St., but Stanford still has Notre Dame to play. It’s something to watch at least. Also, it’s a reminder of why I need to make sure losses hurt a team more than wins help a team.

Speaking of which, I think LSU would beat the lowest 5 teams ahead of them (at least), but the idea is three losses should put you a decent distance outside of title contention. Why so many spots? Well, the distance between Oklahoma at #15 and LSU at #23 in terms of points is less than that between #1 Florida St. and #4 Ohio St. Fifteenth or maybe even 20th without better wins (other than Auburn and Texas A&M, LSU hasn’t beaten anyone else in the top 70) is too high for a 3-loss team at this point, especially when two of the losses were against unranked teams. But if LSU were to win a bowl game against a good team (after beating Arkansas, of course), they could climb up into that range. Anyway, I’m still glad in a way that LSU could be ranked again after falling so low. It stops me from seeing my formula as overly punitive of losses.

I realize Notre Dame is a little higher than LSU despite also having three losses. The losses are similar, but the Irish have wins over three ranked teams: Arizona St., Michigan St., and USC. LSU only has wins roughly comparable to Arizona St. and USC. Also, the best unranked team LSU has beaten is all the way down at #66 (Mississippi St.), while Notre Dame has beaten two additional teams in the top 60 (Navy and BYU).

I guess I should also address Texas A&M and USC. The Aggies don’t have any wins over top-25 teams. Their best wins are Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Rice, and Mississippi St. The losses, to the three other ranked SEC West teams, are better than either Notre Dame’s or LSU’s, but that alone isn’t enough to put them higher. USC’s loss to Washington St. isn’t that bad at this point. The Cougars have risen to #51, not much lower than Pittsburgh. Arizona St. and Notre Dame are of course ranked in the top 25. Although it doesn’t have enough big wins to surpass Notre Dame, USC does have the big win over Stanford. The Arizona win over Oregon this weekend was also beneficial (USC played Arizona but not Oregon). Boston College Is close to being in the top 40, so that’s a win that’s surprisingly helpful. I think you can follow the logic to see why UCLA is the 5th-best 3-loss team in my rankings.

I also like that Baylor stayed in the top 10. I think my formula does well to place them there.

I can see people being unhappy with Michigan St.’s position, but the Spartans have lost to the only ranked team they’ve played (Notre Dame), and the best team they’ve beaten is now Minnesota. Michigan and Nebraska are not far behind, but that’s not a top-10 resume to me. Had the Spartans had another bye week instead of the loss to Notre Dame, they would be #8 though. Had they beaten the Irish, they would be in the top 5; but I’m not sure how high.

Top 25

rank / team / prior

1 Florida St. 1
2 Alabama 2
3 Auburn 3
4 Ohio St. 5
5 Missouri 6
6 N. Illinois 12
7 Arizona St. 11
8 Okie St. 16
9 Clemson 7
10 Baylor 4
11 Stanford 8
12 Fresno St. 9
13 Mich. St. 13
14 UCF 15
15 Oklahoma 18
16 S Carolina 14
17 Wisconsin 21
18 Louisville 20
19 Notre Dame —
20 Oregon 10
21 Duke 22
22 USC 24
23 LSU —
24 TX A&M 17
25 UCLA 19

Out of rankings: (23) Minnesota, (25) Ole Miss

All 126 teams

Prior rankings:
Preseason
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12

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  1. Hope NIU gets a BCS Bowl. Wisky is one of the most-improved teams.

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