theknightswhosay

My Top 25 Week 10

In College Football, General LSU, Rankings, Rankings Commentary on November 3, 2013 at 1:53 PM

top25-week10

As I expected, Florida St. passed up the three teams ahead of them to move into first place in my computer ratings. I held off on moving Stanford and Missouri into #1, and those turned out to be good moves, so I’m once again keeping Alabama #1. I’m only going to wait one week this time though. After that, I’ll probably just go with what the formula says the rest of the way.

Speaking of Alabama, since their game against LSU is now less than a week away, you may want to check out my LSU/Alabama Rivalry blog.

Oregon would already be #5 going by average week, and as Florida St. showed, one good big win (such as over Stanford) can move you up a few spots. Florida St. is #1 by a decent margin too, so if they had been a couple more spots back, they might still be #1 in the formula this week. The Ducks also have Utah, Arizona, and Oregon St. before the Pac-12 championship game (in which they would all but clinch a berth by beating Stanford).

Baylor is a similar situation: undefeated in a pretty good conference but hasn’t really done a whole lot YET. The only game they have left that should be pretty easy is TCU, but a very large amount of points is available from Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St., and Texas. As of right now, however, the Bears have only beaten a single team that currently has a winning record (if you don’t count wins over FCS teams). That team was Buffalo, which has had an even easier schedule thus far.

LSU fell a bunch of spots with the bye week, which followed beating Furman the week before. LSU still stands to gain a good deal with a win this weekend of course, but with a loss, the Tigers could fall out of the top 25 in the next two weeks since even if losing to the Tide doesn’t knock them out, there is another bye week the week of Nov. 16. Also, LSU’s non-conference schedule turned out to be pretty bad. TCU losing again this week didn’t help. The other two FBS opponents (UAB and Kent St.) are terrible, and Furman isn’t one of the best FCS teams. TCU and Kent St. were thought to be much better than they are going it, but it happens. In hindsight, LSU might have been better off scheduling an in-state opponent (especially UL-Lafayette or Tulane).

There are some bye weeks to keep in mind for other teams next week: Ohio St., Clemson, Fresno St., Michigan St., Northern Illinois, and South Carolina. So along with LSU, teams like Arizona St., Houston, and Central Florida (who plays Houston) could derive extra benefit from decent wins this week.

Texas A&M is probably too low by a lot of estimations, but when you lose two games, you need quality wins to pick the rating up (see LSU). The Aggies have lost to the two top teams in the West, leaving Ole Miss as their best win. Vanderbilt is the second-best win. I think that justifies their situation. A&M does still have LSU and Missouri on its schedule, and teams in this part of the rankings are packed in pretty tightly, so there is opportunity to improve if they’re deserving of a higher ranking. If they end up with four losses, on the other hand, I don’t see a problem with them being unranked going into the bowls.

Georgia hasn’t been a top 25 team on the field lately, but they did beat LSU and South Carolina, so that still counts. Michigan hasn’t looked like a top 25 team much lately either, but their win over Notre Dame (Oklahoma is the only other team to beat the Irish) still counts too.

I don’t think any of the others are very controversial, but if you want me to address something, feel free to leave a comment.

Top 25

rank / team / prior

1 Alabama 1
2 Florida St. 4
3 Stanford 2
4 Ohio St. 3
5 Missouri 7
6 Auburn 6
7 Oregon 5
8 Clemson 10
9 Oklahoma 9
10 Fresno St. 11
11 Baylor 12
12 Miami 8
13 S Carolina 16
14 Notre Dame 22
15 Mich. St. 20
16 N. Illinois 15
17 Arizona St. 25
18 Okie St. —
19 Houston 21
20 TX A&M 19
21 LSU 14
22 Georgia —
23 UCF 23
24 Michigan 13
25 Louisville 24

Out of rankings: (17) Va. Tech, (18) TX Tech

All 126 teams

Prior rankings:
Preseason
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9

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  1. Who has Notre Dame beat they will in the BCS and couldn’t beat miss state !!

    Sent from my iPhone

    >

    • Michigan St. and Arizona St. are their two best wins. Navy had a winning record going into its game against the Irish, and USC is 6-3. Based on opponents and opponents’ opponents, Notre Dame has the 35th best record in Division I. That’s not bad with only two losses, neither of them embarrassing unless Michigan starts losing to some bad teams.

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