theknightswhosay

Week 11 Top 25 and Commentary

In Rankings, Rankings Commentary on November 14, 2010 at 3:26 PM

Full ratings

rank team prev.

1 Auburn 1
2 TCU 2
3 Oregon 4
4 LSU 3
5 Okie St. 6
6 Boise St. 7
7 Mich. St. 5
8 Ohio St. 9
9 Nebraska 8
10 Missouri 11
11 Alabama 12
12 Stanford 10
13 Oklahoma 16
14 Wisconsin 13
15 Arkansas 17
16 Nevada 19
17 Texas A&M 23
18 S.Carolina —
19 Utah 14
20 Iowa 15
21 Miss St. 18
22 Florida St. —
23 USC —
24 Michigan —
25 NC State —

Out of top 25: (20) Arizona, (21) Kansas St., (22) Florida, (24) Cent. Fla., (25) N.Carolina

Nos. 1 through 3 weren’t exactly impressive, but I don’t factor in margin of victory, and it’s hard to make up for having a loss.

The discrepancy between TCU and Boise St. is mostly based on scheduling. Boise St. has three games left–two of them against fairly decent teams, Fresno St. and Nevada, and the other against Utah St. TCU has only New Mexico left, which is worse than Utah St. Also, it is certain that Oregon and LSU would more ahead of TCU by continuing to win. It’s harder to speculate about what the order might be among Boise St., TCU, and Oklahoma St., but if Oklahoma St. continues to win that would likely add Nebraska to the schedule, along with Oklahoma, who is already there. My guess would be that Oklahoma St. would move ahead of TCU and stay ahead of Boise St., but it could be close between Boise St. and Oklahoma St.

LSU should move ahead of Oregon if both win out, but it depends on how their opponents do in other games. I didn’t anticipate Oregon moving ahead of LSU this time, but past opponents did well enough (a big win was USC over Arizona, while LSU’s opponents had more mixed results) for Oregon that it happened. Arkansas is still on LSU’s schedule and that will count for more than Arizona. There isn’t as significant a difference between Ole Miss and Oregon St. LSU will move ahead next week though, since Oregon has a bye.

I’ve mentioned this before, but with computer rankings, especially those like mine, week-to-week variations mean different things from what they mean in the polls. So the rankings are not saying LSU was better last week, and now Oregon is better, and next week LSU will be better. It’s based on what has happened so far, not with a view toward who goes ahead by the teams’ winning out.

The carousel has continued at the bottom. USC moved in, knocking Arizona out. South Carolina moved in, knocking Florida out. A couple of the other changes were more indirect. Even though there was some shuffling with ACC teams, it was because North Carolina lost to Virginia Tech while Florida St. and North Carolina St. won (even though Wake Forest doesn’t count for much). Michigan moved up by virtues of others’ losses as well, since Purdue wasn’t worth a lot of points either. Most of the other changes were regular shifts based on schedule. The only currently top-25 teams who lost last week were Utah, Iowa, and Mississippi St., who were all just a little too high to fall out of the rankings.

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  1. makes me want to drink alchoholic beverages

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